Analyzing Factors Affecting Trump’s Foreign Policy against Iran: Lessons for Iran

This study examines the influential factors behind Trump’s aggressive foreign policy towards Iran. Following Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 US presidential election and his adoption of aggressive stances vis-à-vis Iran, the already fragile Iran-US ties, forged during the Obama administration under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), faced uncertainties. Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 exacerbated the tensions between the two countries, bringing them to the brink of a full-scale war. Trump’s primary objective in withdrawing from the deal and adopting hostile positions against Iran through a strategy of maximum pressure was to achieve an agreement aligning with the interests of the United States. He pursued his ideal agreement in line with the slogan "America First" and making America great again. For Trump, considerations such as ideology, international agreements, and even global public opinion held no significance. The main question addressed in this study is what factors influenced Trump’s aggressive foreign policy towards Iran. Trump’s aggressive foreign policy toward Iran reveals the motivations underlying his aggressive and hostile behavior toward Iran. The findings of this study are based on Mearsheimer’s offensive realism theory and an analytical-descriptive approach to examining Trump’s personality traits. The conclusion demonstrates that Trump’s aggressive foreign policy towards Iran was shaped by internal factors encompassing the roles and personalities of Trump himself, the Department of State, the Treasury Department, the National Security Council, Congress, think tanks, media outlets, and pro-Israeli lobbies. External factors such as the role of Israel and Saudi Arabia, the European Union, China, Russia, and most importantly, Iran’s regional conduct also played a significant role. Through the integration and overlap of offensive realism and Trump’s personality analysis, this study seeks to provide a better understanding of Trump’s aggressive foreign policy toward Iran.