Dynamic Analysis of Sustainable Management of Water Resources Based on the Correlation of Water, Food and Energy Resources (Case Study: Darmian and Sarbisheh Cities in South Khorasan Province)

Today, human society is involved in fundamental threats in the field of production, supply and distribution of water, food and energy. South Khorasan province is located in the arid and semi-arid region of Iran and is highly vulnerable in terms of water resources. Due to the close relationship between the three sources of water, food and energy and their mutual influence on each other, a new concept called the linkage approach has been proposed, which refers to the integrated nature and mutual effects of these three sources. The present research has analyzed the dynamic analysis of sustainable water resource management systems based on the correlation of water, food and energy resources in a 21-year horizon (2011-2031) in Darmian and Sarbisheh cities in South Khorasan province(The scope of implementation of the carbon sequestration project) with the help of Vensim DSS software. This research has been done based on Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis as well as the development of the model under the title of 5 scenarios, and finally, the fifth scenario was selected for the sustainable management of water resources in the research area. In this situation, optimal consumption modeling in different sectors, compliance with limit conditions and culture based on consumption pattern modification are among the key issues in resources crisis management.