A biophysical Approach to Assess the Risks Associated with Climate Change for Spatial Analysis of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability

Global warming has led to changes in climate variability and different characteristic of consequence extreme events. Recently, the study of compound extremes, defined as the co-occurrence of multiple events with extreme impacts, has attracted much attention because of their detrimental impacts on society and ecosystems. In countries like Iran with arid and semi-arid climate patterns, the inter-annual climate variability causes severe influences on agriculture through compound dry and hot extremes. Such impacts are expected to increase due to climatic changes. Decreasing water availability as a consequence will impose a direct impact on agriculture and could endanger the socio-economic development and social sustainability in these regions. Assessment of the vulnerability to climate change and its resulted-in agricultural drought is fundamental for effective adaptation strategies in the future. This paper is presenting a spatial GIS-based assessment method for agricultural drought vulnerability in current and future climatic conditions in Isfahan province, Iran by constructing agricultural drought vulnerability maps. This assessment was conducted by evaluation of changes in the severity, duration, and frequency of compound dry and hot extremes. The results expressed the spatio-temporal variability of the empirical probability of drought occurrence, and indicated the relation between the vulnerability of agricultural drought and the characteristics of drought occurrence. The results of vulnerability assessment can be used to prioritize the counties for implementation of long-term drought management plans and effective countermeasures, as well as to contribute to sustainable agricultural development.