جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « scenario planning » در نشریات گروه « جغرافیا »

Floods as one of the natural hazards can cause much damage to cities and communities. Khorramabad city is also one of the cities exposed to this danger. Therefore, the current research aims to analyze the resilience scenarios of Khorramabad City against flood risk to provide solutions for the future. This research is practical and descriptive-analytical, and exploratory. The research data collection is based on the Delphi technique. A sample size of 44 people was determined to identify the key drivers, a sample size of 10 people was determined to develop scenarios, and the sampling method was a snowball. In this research, the key driver in the field of flood resilience of Khorramabad city was extracted using Mic Mac software, the descriptors were analyzed using Scenario Wizard, and the consistency value of flood resilience scenarios of Khorramabad city was determined. 10 key drivers and 36 possible situations were determined using the opinion of experts and the output of Mic Mac software for the future resilience of Khorramabad city against floods, and the matrix questionnaire of mutual effects was designed and sent to the experts. The results of the scenario wizard software showed that the key factors of institutions' performance, communication capacity, governance, internet infrastructure, and construction boom in the scenarios have the most adaptive value in the future resilience of Khorramabad city against floods

Nowadays, informal settlements in cities have brought about enormous problems before urban management. Mashhad as a metropolis is no exception to this phenomenon. The increasing urban living costs, migrants’ intake and high population concentration at the outskirts have encountered Mashhad with danger which could further led to complex challenges in the future. The main purpose of this study is to identify the key drivers and formulate future scenarios of informal settlements in Khorasan Razavi province and its capital city Mashhad. Identifying the future situation and compiling the settlement expansion scenarios under the futuristic framework is one of the comprehensive approaches in regional planning. Addressing the factors affecting the future of informal settlements by determining the role of other settlements in the province is an issue that has received less attention in researches. The method is descriptive-analytical where data is collected through questionnaire and analyzed by Mic Mac software. The target research population is 30 people including municipal experts and faculty members of universities. The findings indicate 5 factors: " laws, programs and policies at the national level", "Integrated management of local institutions", "drought and agricultural activities", "unemployment" and "inflation" which are important for the future of informal settlements. The results show that in different scenarios, economic and management factors have the greatest impact on the future of informal settlements in Mashhad and the development of other settlements in the province.

Over the past two centuries, cities have grown rapidly around the world. Cities are a source of creativity and technology and are the engines for economic growth. However, they are also a source of poverty, inequality and environmental health risks. The urban population has long been a place for the production and spread of infectious diseases. Also, rapid and often unplanned urban growth is often associated with poverty, environmental degradation, and population demand that exceed service capacity. These conditions endanger human health. In terms of applied purpose, the present study has been conducted in terms of survey method at the exploratory level and based on the future research approach. In this study, we aim to identify the key effective factors of Iran's urban environments when dealing with infectious diseases and COVID-19 and scenario building with a future research approach. The propulsive forces are determined by the Delphi method, and then these factors are determined based on the degree of importance and uncertainty, prioritization, and software (Micmac) is used to write possible scenarios. In the scenario stage, 39 general variables were identified. The results indicate that the variables of poverty, inflation, marginalization, lack of income, social inequality, income inequality, security, migration, employment, and unemployment in the metropolis of Ahvaz are the most important and effective variables of social harm on the prevalence of infectious diseases and coronary heart disease.  Finally, suggestions have been made to improve the situation of social damage caused by infectious diseases, and one of the most important implications is for city officials to fairly attract and distribute health and treatment facilities, especially in deprived areas.

Developing sustainable nature tourism tours in natural ecosystems requires planning ‎with a view to the future and minimal damage to the region and its biodiversity. Therefore, the ‎current study aimed to present scenarios for developing ‎sustainable nature tourism tours with a future research approach in the mangrove forests of Iran. ‎

Design/methodology/approach:

 This study is applied in terms of purpose and analytical-exploratory in nature and ‎method. Information was collected based on theoretical studies and existing records. Data ‎analysis was also conducted through the methods of structural analysis and scenario planning in ‎MicMac and Scenario Wizard software. ‎

According to the results, 41 indicators play a key role in sustainable nature tourism tours. Among the indicators, maintaining the quality of the environment has the most ‎influence, and the index of the employee activity record is the most effective. The total ‎acceptable scenarios include 88 situations, of which 56% are favorable, 32% are static, and 12% have a critical situation. ‎

The analysis of the scenarios showed that the first group provides the ideal conditions for ‎the development of sustainable nature tourism tours in the mangrove forests of Iran, and the ‎scenarios of this group indicate a positive and developing situation for sustainable nature ‎tourism tours in this region.

‎Originality/value: 

Developing sustainable nature tourism tours requires the performance of nature tourists ‎and nature tourist tours in natural ecosystems that cause the least damage to the region and ‎valuable biological reserves. The basis of developing future research scenarios for the ‎development of sustainable nature tourism tours in the mangrove forests of Iran is based on ‎maintaining the quality of the environment and optimal use of resources by increasing ‎education and improving the culture of nature tourism among nature tourists and the local ‎community.‎

The development of different types of cryptocurrencies has caused this technology to find various applications in the economy of societies. This type of currency does not belong to any government and its value is determined by the demand of human society. Since digital currencies are electronic and do not have costs such as service fees, taxes, maintenance costs, etc., they are considered the most flexible type of money. However, it should be noted that the transfer of virtual money is not supported by any central service provider or institution. According to what has been discussed, nowadays, the implementation of governance in the world requires effective levers, one of the most important of these levers is the economic lever. Governments can use economic levers to shape political demands and take advantage of it, which is sometimes not the case in the field of cryptocurrencies and can become challenging issues in the economic and territorial fields of countries in the coming years. Considering the influential role of cryptocurrencies in the future economy of the world and the tremendous effects of this type of monetary channels on the relations between governments and sometimes their impact on the economic arteries of governments in the coming years, this research seeks to explain the scenarios of cryptocurrencies by entering into their financial and monetary flows. which addresses this issue by identifying the most important actors and drivers affecting the issue.

The current research is applied in terms of its purpose and in terms of its nature and method, it is an exploratory description based on a qualitative approach and aims to collect data in order to conceptualize and provide prescriptive analysis. Considering the importance of the research subject and considering that its main goal is scenario development regarding the consequences of cryptocurrencies on the geo-economic policies of governments, it has been tried to pay attention to the effective factors and drivers in the various fields of cryptocurrencies and their economic policies. Therefore, the identification of heterogeneous and efficient experts has played a significant role in this research, and for this purpose, the statistical population of this research has been redefined and includes experts and experts who have the ability to provide analytical assistance to the research goals. Regarding the methods of information gathering and scenario writing method, first, in order to review the literature, a scientific and specialized library review was done, then in the next stages, brainstorming methods and expert panels were used. The main scenario writing method of the research is based on the Global Business Network (GBN) model scenario.

In this article, based on the scenario method in the inferential approach, an attempt was made to identify important and influential actors on cryptocurrencies and their role on the governments' financial and credit policies, effective drivers and related uncertainties were also identified using experts' opinions. Based on the above findings, it is possible to write believable scenarios and finally five scenarios were drawn for the future of this field. The findings of the research showed that the key influential actors include the media and social networks with very large and popular users in the country (such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc.), scientific and academic societies inside and outside the country, international economic and financial institutions (such as the International Fund International Monetary Fund and FATF), financing of terrorism, opportunities and challenges of cryptocurrencies, and the most important drivers are the development of governance of digital currencies in the world, user trust in the exploitation and exchanges of digital currencies, the formalization of exchanges based on digital currencies, the development of the digital economy, the impact of digital currencies In the economy of a country, motivational factors for the production of digital currencies, the development of systems and technologies based on digital currencies and blockchain, global crises (such as the Corona epidemic), disruption of the management of the current affairs of countries, the irreversibility of digital currency transactions, anonymity or semi-anonymity The presence of wallet addresses, economic and political tension between countries, the possibility of making unlimited transactions, the conflict between countries' laws and money laundering laws, the functional role of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), organized fraud. with cryptocurrencies on the blockchain platform.

According to experts, by identifying four key uncertainties, i.e. the trust or lack of trust of users in the exploitation and exchanges of digital currencies, the formalization or non-formalization of exchanges based on digital currencies in the economy and monetary exchanges of societies, the development or non-development of the digital economy based on digital currencies. Disrupting the management of the current affairs of the countries or improving the management situation of the governments in the use of cryptocurrencies, sixteen uncertain atmospheres were created, and the scenarios were written by checking their credibility. In the most desirable scenario, governments use the benefits and wide and international applications of cryptocurrencies to increase their geo-economic weight. The creation of cryptocurrencies is a revolution in financial markets. Cryptocurrencies have managed to find their place in the global economy with their amazing performance over the last few years. Many large companies and investors use cryptocurrencies to diversify their investment portfolio and long-term investments. Also, people have a positive view of the future of cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, by using cryptocurrencies in financial relations and monetary exchanges, governments improve the management situation and current businesses develop their progress through the establishment of the governing flow of society's money and create There is no excessive money in the economy, which leads to controlling inflation.

The transformation of the traditional shopping spaces from the market and the street to the indiscriminate construction of shopping malls has caused "property" to become the dominant approach of urban management. All kinds of shopping spaces are conquering the city without a comprehensive understanding of their formation philosophy and typology. Looking at the future, this way of developing shopping centers in today's cities is an undeniable necessity. Considering this importance, in this article, the future of shopping centers has been examined from the perspective of the identity of Iranian-Islamic cities. In order to answer the research questions from the descriptive-analytical method and the logical reasoning approach (cultural-discourse) and the structural analysis approach in tandem, using library and documentary studies and questionnaires (in order to clarify the conceptual model and evaluate its reliability and validity and also using the technique of structural analysis and scenario writing) has been used. According to the research done and the conceptual model of the research, the desirability variables of shopping centers from the perspective of the identity of Iranian-Islamic cities consist of twenty-two (22) variables in the form of six (6) components. The results of this article show the high orientation of the scenario of continuing the status quo towards the urban anti-utopian scenario. This indicates the neglect of the context of cities in the development of shopping centers in the city's management and decision-making layers. Paying attention to the points raised in the Iranian-Islamic city models can put an informed path of development in front of the specialists and city planners

Lack of attention to the future in the tourism policies of Iran and insisting on the model of "planning based on the current situation" has led to the adoption of very inefficient policies to manage sports tourism destinations. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the future of sports tourism destinations based on identifying the factors leading to possible scenarios up to the time horizon of 1410, which has been done through a case study in Isfahan province. The research method of this study is survey. Research data were collected using three methods interview, theoretical literature review and weighted questionnaires. The statistical population of the study included 14 experts in the field of sports tourism. Data analysis was performed using structural analysis and scenario analysis. The findings showed that Isfahan sports tourism system is an unstable system with 16 scenarios including two unlikely scenarios, seven inconsistent scenarios, two low-probabilities, three medium-probability and two high-probability scenarios.The sixth scenario is the most likely scenario for the 10-year future of Isfahan province. Based on this scenario, investment in sports tourism infrastructure is stagnant or declining, and there will be no intelligent policy for the development of sports tourism. For this reason, The lack of a unified and coherent policy with the ability of continuous and dynamic updating at the national level, has led to the vulnerability of sports tourism destinations in Isfahan province. Therefore, the most important strategies and future planning actions should be focused on policy-making at the provincial level.

The activity of Takfiri-terrorist groups of ISIS in the territory of the eastern borders of the country is one of the most important events that has received serious attention in recent years. Therefore, ensuring the security of the eastern borders is a very important concern, which has faced many uncertainties in the future due to the activities of ISIS. The purpose of this research is to identify the future scenarios of the presence and activity of the Takfiri-terrorist group ISIS in the eastern borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Intuitive logic approach (8-step Petershwartz method) has been used for scenario writing. Data collection tools included systematic review of sources, interviews with experts, expert panel and Delphi, and observation of ISIS actions, and to analyze the data, the opinions of 18 security-law enforcement experts were analyzed qualitatively until theoretical saturation was reached. Checked.

The drivers and different states of the two key uncertainties include the possibility of cooperation of other takfiri groups in the region with ISIS and the state of coordination of border residents in dealing with Tadwin group, which in the best situation of ISIS is not able to directly attack the eastern borders of the country and the border residents are aligned with each other. And they are in front of ISIS, and in the worst situation, with the cooperation of other Takfiri groups, they penetrate into the country from the eastern borders, and some border residents join this terrorist group.

Turbulence and unexpected events have significantly impacted cities, accelerating the process of urban growth and development. In this ever-changing urban landscape, utilization of scenario planning tools is crucial for urban planners. The northwest district of Mashhad is a key area within the master plan of the city. Notably, this area is characterized by rapid and extensive construction. The following research question guided this study: "What are the potential future scenarios for urban development in the northwest area of Mashhad?" The research was purposefully applied in terms of methodology and employed a descriptive and analytical approach. Both documentary and field methods were utilized for data collection, while the Delphi method and Smicprob Expert scenario planning were employed for data analysis. The results of scenario development indicated that the third scenario held the highest probability at 17%. According to this scenario, 4 events were continuous with only one event not occurring.

The urban transportation system is one of the most important and sensitive infrastructures of urban development, which requires special attention for its development and exploitation. Urban transportation is known as one of the biggest infrastructural challenges facing big cities. During the occurrence of incidents such as floods, storms, tsunamis, terrorist operations, the role of the road network in traffic, transportation and relief will be much more prominent and vital than in normal conditions. As a result of these incidents, the transportation infrastructures suffer fundamental problems, in the provision of service or total failure, their vulnerability analysis is very important. The vulnerability of the transportation network includes terrorist attacks and natural disasters, which reduce the service level of the transportation network. All these events are considered unusual events, which happen in the transportation network with different possibilities, and the consequences of their occurrence are also different.Accidents, from the point of view of vulnerability in the transportation system, are those events that cause disruption in traffic. These events can be natural, sudden, and unpredictable, such as severe adverse weather or terrorist activities, all of which affect network performance. The common feature of all these incidents is that they all cause negative effects on the service of the road network. In other words, an incident is an event, which directly or indirectly causes a significant decrease in the service of an arc/route/road in the network. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the urban transportation system using Transcode software in the urban road network from the point of view of crisis management during evacuation.

The current research is descriptive and analytical in terms of its methodology and in terms of purpose, it is practical-developmental. In this research, based on the modeling of the transportation network in Transcode specialized software, a method for prioritizing the role of roads in the urban road network during evacuation is proposed. For this reason, the travel time of the entire network has been used as a measure to determine the efficiency and effectiveness of the transportation network. Considering 16 scenarios, the demand matrix was obtained for the discharge conditions of Isfahan's transportation network, using the gravity model, with one limitation. Then, traffic allocation was done using Transcode software, and according to the mentioned process, the designated routes; respectively removed from the network and the allocation process was done. 30% of the city's population is considered to determine the number of people who travel out of the city every hour. According to the population and housing statistics of 2016, the average household population in urban areas is about 3.5 people.In this research, first, the shortest routes between origins and destinations were calculated using TransCAD software, and origin-destination matrices were created based on 30% of people who intend to leave the city during the crisis. Then the outputs were removed from the network, respectively, and the traffic allocation process was done using software; In order to perform traffic allocation, limited software’s are used, and in this study, TransCAD 4.5 software was used, which is one of the most updated and famous specialized software’s for transportation engineering. To perform traffic allocation, using TransCAD software, it is necessary to introduce the road network, the origin-destination demand matrix, and then the performance function to the software, and after that, the software performs the allocation operation, and the outputs, it includes the balance flow of each arc in each direction, the travel time of each arc in each direction, the ratio of volume to capacity of each arc and etc.In order to implement this process, first the passages and their intersection points are called in the software environment; Then, the transportation network and its characteristics will be defined; At this stage, the centers of the traffic areas, the status of inactive or blocked roads, the status of circulations at the crossing points of the roads, etc. will be determined. In the next step, the construction of the source-destination matrix will be done at the time of the crisis, in which the population parameters of the districts, the distance of each district to the exit destinations of the city, and the number of people who will be sent to the exit points every hour will be done., is used.After this stage, it comes to the traffic allocation process, in which, using the travel time-volume functions, which are built based on the characteristics of the roads, people's trips will be allocated through different routes from their origins to their destinations found, and the traffic volume of each passage will be determined.

The allocation results showed that exit 3657 (Nain Road) has the most time spent in the entire transportation network, in one hour, and using a 30% matrix, compared to the base scenario. Also, the outlets were ranked in terms of the total length of the arcs, with a volume exceeding the capacity, and twice the capacity, and it was determined that the outlet 4639 (Azadrah Zob Ahan) is in the first place. The scenarios were ranked based on the cost of traffic facilities and services, in millions of Rials per hour (30% matrix), and it was found that scenario 4639 (Zob Ahan Freeway) ranked first, and scenario 2003 (Zainbiye Boulevard (Habib Abad Road)) ranked last.

This study showed that, when a crisis occurs, there is access to transportation for the residents of Isfahan metropolis, which in order of time spent, the Nain road exit scenario shows the most time spent compared to other scenarios, and the residents of the city can use outputs that have less time spent than other outputs in the network. Finally, suitable solutions for use in the field of urban transportation were presented; these solutions include:- Preventing the blocking of standard and safe exits, to evacuate the population and timely arrival of relief forces, in times of crisis. It is possible to use a similar method to identify parallel routes in order to provide relief services or evacuate the population in the city of Isfahan. Considering the appropriate emergency evacuation route for crowded places, such as subway stations, passenger terminals, uneven intersections, underground tunnels, etc. Determining and equipping emergency evacuation routes, as well as alternative routes, for routes that are likely to be damaged, for the rapid evacuation of the city population, and its different areas, with logical methods, and testing it by conducting appropriate maneuvers to educate citizens. Informing, educating the public and conducting appropriate maneuvers to train citizens for emergencies with a relatively realistic simulation of specific threats.

 Planning the local development of rural communities is an effective technique, particularly for sustainable resource allocation, which might be the end objective of a happy future. Development planning should achieve intended goals from the perspective of all regional spatial stakeholders. Methodologies vary in response to new issues. Scenario writing of rural local planning in East Azerbaijan province was used to fill the study gap from two subject and methodological perspectives.

 The method of the present research is applied, descriptive-analytical, and mixed in terms of purpose, nature, and collection of information, respectively. Also, it is based on scenario planning. The panel consists of 30 experts and university professors in related fields. Scenario Wizard software extracted scenarios at three levels of consistent, strong, and weak probability.

  One strong scenario, 1675 weak scenarios, and 26 highly compatible scenarios were extracted. Each compatible scenario was displayed at three optimal, static, and critical probability levels.

 The scenario "encouraging local governance through popular participation" was identified as the first compatible scenario, which is positive and promising. "The lack of significant participation of people and non-governmental institutions in local planning," as the next consistent scenario, indicates the absence of stakeholders or at least the weak role of people in rural planning in the future. "Basic lack of attention to the role of intermediate cities" was identified as the third consistent scenario.

Innovation:

 Filling the research gap from the point of view of background criticism and all from the methodological aspect to provide stable scenario(s) for the future of local planning from the point of view of spatial stakeholders.

The purpose of this research is to identify the key variables and driving forces affecting the future of the water issue in the city of Isfahan and to compile the scenarios facing the city of Isfahan in the water issue. The current research method as an applied research and using the critical uncertainties approach has presented the future scenarios of water in Isfahan. To collect data, the method of library studies and expert panels has been used. Using the opinion of experts, 20 key factors in the form of five drivers, i.e. 1. The price of water, 2. Investing in new technologies, 3. Water policies, 4. urban population and 5. Water infrastructures were categorized. In the next stage, the two drivers of water policies and investment in new technologies as critical uncertainties were the basis for compiling the scenarios of Isfahan City in the field of water, and finally, four scenarios were compiled. The first scenario of the battle for the last sip narrates the situation in which Isfahan will face a severe drought; The second scenario, there is water but little, shows a situation where water policies are forward-looking and do not ignore long-term challenges, but technology is left out as a solution to solve problems in this area; The third scenario is water, but for the rich, it is a bipolar story about access to water; And the fourth scenario of green Isfahan describes a situation that city managers and officials, taking into account the potential of new technologies in the optimal management of water consumption and by adopting forward-looking policies, realize a green city that is favourable to different sections of the society. The results show that drivers and scenarios show that the most important factors determining the future water situation in Isfahan City are not environmental factors, but factors related to human decisions

The worn-out urban texture and its internal elements arise due to the old age or the lack of a development program and technical supervision over the formation of that texture. Their urban regeneration in various social, economic, physical, environmental, etc. dimensions to improve the quality of life in this context with a future studies approach requires sustainable and desirable development in various existential dimensions. The purpose of this research is the impact of urban regeneration on worn-out textures with a future studies approach. The type of applied research and its investigation method is exploratory. Micmac and Scenario Wizard software programs were exerted to analyze the research results. In this research, key factors were determined by using Micmac software, and then several uncertainties were considered for each. Then, the essential scenarios of urban regeneration in worn-out textures were developed using Scenario Wizard software. The results show that the variables of preserving the physical identity and promoting and developing the productivity of urban lands have the most significant impact on worn-out textures. Examining the variables based on Micmac software's output indicates the instability of these areas. In addition, the filling degree is equal to 96%, showing the high impact of the variables on each other and their dispersion. The regeneration of worn-out textures is in a state of crisis, and the probability of organizing worn-out textures is low from the point of view of urban regeneration, and it requires the serious attention of urban planners and managers.

Good urban governance is considered as one of the most important and effective approaches in the field of urban management in the world. Because understanding the future of good governance in our country's cities can be very effective in the planning and decision-making of managers, and due to the uncertainty and the need for possible predictions, the present study aimed to identify the key factors affecting good urban governance with a scenario planning approach in Fasa city in the horizon of 1430. This research is descriptive-analytical in terms of applied purpose and method. MICMAC software has been used to analyze the effect of factors on each other. Scenario planning software has also been used to perform scenario calculations (scenario editing). The statistical population consists of 22 experts and scholars in the field of urban management, governance and future research with the necessary and sufficient knowledge and experience. The results indicated that the key factors affecting the future of the Fasa city governance in the horizon of 1430 have been the commitment of urban management to equality before the law, the resistance of urban management to illegal behaviors of citizens, the sense of responsibility of managers and city officials, the honesty of urban management in presenting programs, justice in equal and equitable distribution of urban facilities, absence of corruption in urban management system, reasonable use of resources and facilities, improvement of methods and actions based on modern science, transparency in performance, tolerance and acceptance of various approaches, gender justice, proper control and supervision of urban construction, public participation in planning, planning, decision-making and activities, and transparency in decision-making. In addition, seven scenarios with different combinations of three favorable, static and critical conditions are likely to occur in good urban governance in Fasa city.

The Islamic world is a vast geographical area that includes Southwest Asia, Central Asia, North Africa and parts of South and Southeast Asia. Most of the residents of this vast geographical area are followers of Islam and are distinguished from other regions of the world based on the Quranic doctrine of "One Ummah" or "Islamic Ummah". The Islamic world, which had experienced great and brilliant power and civilization in the first centuries of Islam in the form of a unified Islamic state in a converging and complementary way; In recent centuries, it suffered from colonialism, weakness, passivity, dependence, fragmentation, and division, and with the currents of nationalism and ethnocentrism in the form of the nationstate system, it was completely disintegrated and suffered politicalspatial divergence and rupture. In recent decades, some thinkers, reformers and political activists of the Islamic world have thought about the convergence and unity of Islamic countries based on the theory of a single nation. The main issue of the research is what are the alternative futures and different scenarios for the cooperation and convergence of Islamic countries? The answer to this problem has been done in the framework of future studies and with the method of exploratory scenario development and the use of aggregation of elite opinions. The results of the research show that four scenarios can be presented for Islamic countries, which is the scenario of complete convergence and the formation of a unified Islamic state as a desirable future, the scenario of convergence of Islamic countries in the form of an Islamic confederation as the preferred future, the scenario of convergence and the formation of a union of Islamic countries as a possible future, and the continuation scenario. The current situation and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation will be possible in the future.

Transitioning from private transportation into public transportation, provides environmental sustainability, as well as, economic and social benefits. However, this type of sustainability in the Tehran metropolis has been less studied from a future perspective. In fact, as an interdisciplinary knowledge, future studies provide a tool to assess sustainability in public transportation systems. Therefore, the present study has evaluated the future state of the public transportation system of Tehran's metropolis from the viewpoint of compatibility with the environment.

This is a "survey" carried out based on the experts' opinion and through the "explanatory-evaluation" path. The study is done in 2021 in order to propose possible scenarios for 2031. 12 qualified experts in "future studies" and "transportation and urban traffic", who were selected in a targeted manner, participated in this study. Data analysis was done using "theme analysis", "mean comparison" and "scenario" methods.

8 out of 41 drives affecting the future of the public transportation system in Tehran were identified as the key drivers. Then, 11 scenarios were obtained after defining three favorable, static and critical states for each of the key drivers, in which 6 scenarios were more probable and more credible in the Tehran metropolis. However, scenario number 2, which is the continuation of the current situation, was recognized as the most likely scenario for the next 10 years in Tehran.

Achievement of the environmental sustainability in the future of the public transportation system of the Tehran metropolis is dependent on investment and financing the development of new technologies and environmental standards. Accurate planning and policy-making are of great importance in the achievement of this goal at the level of the metropolitan area.

Citizenship is an undeniable fundamental right that is essential to human life. And is one of the most important and influential factors in the development and welfare of society and refers to a set of civil, political and social rights that individuals enjoy due to membership in a government and a nation and are protected by law and Is supported. In this study, we aim to identify the key factors affecting the future status of infectious diseases arising from citizenship rights in Iranian cities with a case study of the city of Noorabad, as well as scenario planning. The present study, in terms of applied purpose, has been conducted in terms of survey method at the exploratory level and based on the futures research approach. The present study, by implementing a resilience framework derived from citizenship rights, provides a comprehensive approach to optimizing containment programs and mitigation policies using variables affecting the social resilience of Iranian cities in the face of infectious diseases. Covid 19 presents a case study of the city of Noorabad, Fars with a futuristic approach. Initially, using the Delphi method and a survey of urban and health experts, 32 effective primary variables were identified. Then, with the participation of 35 experts on urban issues, the results were analyzed in Mick Mac software environment. Among these factors, 10 factors were selected as key factors using this software and were used as the basis for developing scenarios. Also, the research findings indicate that among these variables, general and non-transparent citizenship rights, social inequality, lack of physicians Weakness of unity, inflation, high cost of housing, poor vitality, poor support, poverty, social trust are the most important key factors of civil rights on the prevalence of infectious diseases and Covid-19 in Iranian cities with the case study of Noorabad, Fars.

Lack of attention to the future in the micro and macro tourism policies of the country and insisting on the model of "planning based on the current situation" has led to the adoption of very fragile policies to manage sports tourism destinations. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the future of sports tourism destinations based on identifying the factors and drivers leading to possible scenarios up to the time horizon of 2031, which has been done through a case study in Isfahan province.

The research method of this study is survey. Research data were collected using three

interview, theoretical literature review and weighted questionnaires. The statistical population of the study included 14 experts in the field of sports tourism who were selected by purposive method. Data analysis was performed using structural analysis and scenario analysis.

Isfahan sports tourism system is an unstable system that in the future will depend on the immediate changes of variables with high uncertainty. Based on the identification of four critical uncertainties and five predetermined factors, a total of 16 scenarios were created, including two unlikely scenarios, five inconsistent scenarios, three low-probability scenarios, four medium-probability scenarios and two high-probability scenarios.

The lack of a unified and coherent policy with the ability of continuous and dynamic updating at the national level, has led to the vulnerability of sports tourism destinations in Isfahan province. Therefore, the most important strategies and future planning actions should be focused on policy-making at the provincial level.

The purpose of this research is to analyze the effects of the new city of Alishahr on the surrounding settlements and to study the future of these effects to draw its different futures from the perspective of different scenarios. In this research, to identify the key factors, after two stages of screening, 54 variables were finally identified in the form of eight indicators, and the future research method was used in the form of mix-and-match analysis and scenario writing. For this research, the opinions of the Delphi group and the snowball sampling method were used. According to the findings of this research, nine important key factors include changes in commercial and residential uses; the Hadi plan for the surrounding villages of the new city; the road network of surrounding settlements; changes in the construction and settlement of the surrounding areas; urbanism of villagers; Communication ways of surrounding settlements; physical expansion of the new city towards the surrounding cities; The access of surrounding settlements to communication and telecommunication means and the location of the village about the road were identified. According to the results obtained from the scenario wizard, there are six compatible and identical scenarios regarding the effects of the new city of Aalishahr on peri-urban areas. The findings of this research allow the policymakers, planners and regional managers to have a better understanding of the future conditions to be able to create more favourable and reasonable conditions of urban development while maintaining the aspect draw the life of peri-urban areas in the future and make decisions about it, this will bring closer the conditions of sustainability in the current conditions with the possibility of achieving sustainability in the future