The present study with an analytical-descriptive method and using futures studies technique and scenario-writing approach sought to investigate the factors of non-institutionalization of parties in Iran and its impact on the future of the 1400 elections. The results show that the lack of institutionalization of parties in Iran will have the following effects on the future of the 1400 elections, which can be proposed in the form of several scenarios: first, the selection of unqualified people due to lack of electoral training, Second, the impact of NGOs on elections, third, reduction of electoral participation due to lack of popular parties; fourth, misuse of political participation in elections by the opposition.

The purpose of the current study is to investigate the scenario designing in the development and improvement of tourism industry in Yasuj, based on cross-effects and CIB. The present research is an applied research in terms of the purpose, a survey research at the survey level based in terms of the method conducted based on the future studies and scenario designing. The research was conducted in three stages including the determination of the key indexes through the Delphi method, identification of vital drivers through the MicMac software based on the cross-effects analysis method and scenario designing according to Scenario Wizard based on Cybe method. Statistical population is included 30 geographic and urban and regional planners, tourism specialists and executive experts of the province in the first stage. In the second stage, the statistical population was selected purposefully in 15-person group and in the third stage was selected centrally. The results of the research consist of 37 key factors, including eight critical factors such as climatic conditions, comprehensive tourism plan, infrastructures, media, welfare services, customs, private sector and security as key factors and drivers of the development of tourism industry in Yasuj city. Ultimately, vital drivers in 80 states with three development situations and 80% of the statuses indicate utility and 20% of the statuses indicate the stability and crisis of the spatial organization of the tourism industry. The scenario 1 is proposed the most desirable scenario, which will be based on maintaining, compiling, rising, interacting, developing, growth quantitatively and qualitatively, and improving security.
At the beginning of the third millennium, future studies have transformed the scattered and inconsistent researched in the field of planning for the future into a disciplined science with rigorous principles and precise methods. By using it, in addition to analyzing the trends of the past, it was possible to discover, invent, and evaluate the possible future, and change, if necessary. One of these important issues, which plays a very important role in the economic development of cities and villages and can lead to improved economic growth and better quality of life through prospects and scenario design, is the development of the tourism industry. Today, tourism is becoming one of the main pillars of the world's commercial economy, and many planners are referred to as the main pillar of development. Tourism is one of the important activities enjoying a special status in the economic development of some countries in recent decades. Therefore, by considering the tourism potential of Yasuj city and taking advantage of strategic management approaches and futures studies and relying on planning models based on scenario, there is attempted to provide the growth and development of the tourism industry in Yasuj city.
In the present study, the expert Delphi model and the MIC MAC software and Scenario Wizard software, and strategic management approaches and future studies are used.
Discussion and Key indicators play both an influential and effective role in the growth and development of the Yasuj tourism industry including climate, comprehensive tourism plan, infrastructure facilities, media, welfare services, customs, private sector and security. And also the best possible scenario for developing the tourism industry in Yasuj city was obtained by CIB method.
Finally, the results of the research showed that among the scenarios, the final 10 final scenarios were refined and selected and 60% of the statues with favorable future and 20% of statues had a poor status. The best scenario from all scenarios was Scenario 1, which the climate based on conservation, comprehensive tourism plan based on codification, development- based facilities, rise- based services, interactions-based media, quality/quantity-based customs and quantity- based and rise-based security.

The functional, structural and inherent complexities of today's cities and the massive uncertainties caused by these complexities, along with the rapid growth of cities in all respects, make it very difficult to address their long-term future. In this context, scenario planning has become prevalent in urban management. However, the application of scenarios in urban planning and management is a key concern in responding to this concern about the use of synergistic scenario methods and the conversion of scenario stories into models Quantitative and measurable evaluations have been considered. In this research, the city-governor-city qualitative scenarios of Tehran metropolis have been modeled using fuzzy cognitive map method and the impact of each scenario on the key issues of urban governance has been quantitatively evaluated. The findings of this research show that based on the three critical uncertainties: 1- Participation of semen and civil institutions in urban management; 2- Impact of globalization process on Tehran metropolis; 3. The amount of changes and reforms in the country's governance system; eight scenarios It will probably take shape, in which five scenarios will fit into the future of the Tehran metropolis. The impact of each of these is different on the seven key issues of urban governance. Based on the modeling, other than the first one, which is located in the ideal state of Tehran, in all of the remaining scenarios, governance issues will intensify.

Drug policy-making requires proper estimates of drug-related trends. This reveals the necessity of paying attention to future research in this field. In this regard, the present study seeks to investigate the future of the approaches of the Police against Drugs in Khorasan Razavi province. This research is a mixed research of documentary and survey method. Library studies and questionnaires and Delphi techniques were used to collect the data. The statistical population of the present study is all managers, deputies, senior experts and experts of police in Khorasan Razavi province, who are either decision makers or activists in this field, as well as officials of the Presidential Counter Narcotics Headquarters in the said province. Are people. The purpose of this study was to obtain the opinions of 13 experts. In the present study, Delphi and scenario-based methods were used among the future research methods and according to the nature of the research. They were first identified using the Delphi-uncertainty approach that the drug police will face in the future. Then, two key uncertainties are identified and expressed on the basis of binary scenario scenarios.

Accelerated urbanization of cities and their limited capacity have made it increasingly necessary to focus on scenario writing for the purpose of urban physical development. In this regard, the present study aims to explain the physical development pattern in the city of Yazd with a prospective approach. It seeks to steer the city's development process in the right direction. In terms of purpose, the study is an applied one, and, in terms of data collection, it is descriptive-analytical. In order to investigate the physical development of Yazd through the Holderen model and the McMake software, the effective indicators have been identified in the development process of the city. Finally, in order to predict the possible physical development status of Yazd up to 2031, the key factors were analyzed in the wizard scenario software. As the results of the research show, based on the calculations in the Holderen model, about 39.83 percent of the city growth occurred from 1977 to 2017 due to the horizontal growth of the city, and about 60. 16 percent of the development was due to the population growth. The key factors in the wizard scenario software represent three types of scenarios including four strong scenarios, 158 weak scenarios and 16 possible scenarios. The possible scenarios with 128 states are in three situation including optimal, static, and critical conditions. Of these, the optimal situation with 10 states is identified as the most likely one for the future of Yazd physical development.

The knowledge for organizations is of strategic assets, hence, the scholars of management science know the knowledge as sustainable advantage enabler; so, to maintain this advantage for future, the organizations should enhance its readiness to act against possible situations and to prescribe appropriate strategy of knowledge management. The purpose of the study is to identifying the affective factors on KMS and the possible scenarios facing the organization, suggesting required reflections for probable futures, and proposing suitable KMS for them. In this research, scenario-planning approach by ScenarioWizard software used to forecast the possible futures, and the Raja Company selected as case study. The study is practical in terms of objective and using surveying method, which implemented at explorative level. Using Balanced Cross-Impact Analysis, 8 strong scenarios and 81 weak ones gained, which 3 ones selected as optimistic, pessimistic and most probable scenarios, and by interviewing of a 5-member group, they proposed suitable actions and arrangements, and compatible KMS's were selected for them. As a result, the dynamic strategy of KM with more focus on human-oriented strategy were suggested for optimistic scenario, and for two other scenarios, the dynamic strategy of KM with more respect to system-oriented strategy were selected.

The present research in the field of pragmatism approach - as a mixed methodology paradigm - has addressed the future of rural development research; so, in terms of methodology, it's about mixed methods, by purpose it is a functional type, in terms of nature and method, it is a descriptive-analytical one and in terms of time, it's kind of futuristic. According to the research needs, three different sample volumes were used to collect and analyze data related to Structural Impact Analysis, Defining Possible Situations and Scenario Basket sections, including experts in the field. To identify key factors, the combination of the "Media Browsing" and "STEEP (V)" method and using the Atlas.ti software, 362 article titles from 6 prestigious journals were used in the period 2014-2018; also, content and formal validity methods and techniques were used to calculate the validity and Cronbach's alpha (0.86) was used to measure the reliability of the research questionnaires. Structural analysis using the MicMac method shows that the dispersion patterns of the effective variables indicates system instability. Key factors: "Development of women's participation in social affairs, migration, health development and quality of life" from a social field; "ICT development" from a technological field; "Rural entrepreneurship" from an economic field and "spatial identity" factor from values field influencing the future of rural development planning in Varzaqan County. Finally, on the horizon of the Seventh Development Plan, 15 scenarios that are considered to be static or unbelievable scenarios are expected to be slightly diminished in the planning process in the Seventh Development Plan. Keywords: Planning, Rural Development, Future Research, Scenario Planning, Mixed Methods.

Nowadays, population growth and increasing the level of social welfare have led to increased and unpredictable demand for water resources that may disrupt the water resources availability. Therefore, conjunctive use based on the scenario planning method can increase the reliability of the water resources utilization in the presence of uncertainties. In this study, the outputs of three atmospheric-ocean general circulation models have been used to assess climate change effects on the Dasht-Afzar of Fars province. In this regard, the LARS-WG model has been applied to downscaling climate models under RCP4.5 scenario. Then to select the best scenario for groundwater resources reclamation, the WEAP model has been used to simulate possible and probable integrated management scenarios for the next 5 years. These scenarios were; 1) Continuation of the current condition, 2) Development of irrigation network, 3) Construction of artificial nutrition ponds, 4) Water transfer from Salman Farsi dam to neighboring cities, 5) Consumption management, 6) Construction of Kavar dam upstream Salman Farsi dam, and 7) Simultaneous implementation of scenarios 2 to 4 in the consumption management scenario conditions. Performance criteria as well as fuzzy sustainability index were employed to evaluate each scenario's outputs. The results indicated that climate change could not be considered as the main factor in the downward trend of groundwater level. Also, the only scenario that can stop that trend is a 35% reduction in agricultural consumption. In the consumption management scenario, the construction of the Kavar dam will be allowed to store a maximum of 30% of the average flow rate to the Salman dam. Because otherwise, the resource management problems and costs related to the Salman Farsi dam will be increased.

Since the identification of the most appropriate future technology for the power industry at least at the national level, by using multi-disciplinary techniques of futurism, the present research drawing and rating scenarios of the future of Iran's power industry utilizes the fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) and Scenario analysis. FCM process conducted by in-depth interviews with experts in the power industry continues until achieving theoretical saturation. FCM of the power industry that is the same as gathering information and input phase of the future studies process is achieved. FCM has three step of scenario writing, simulation scenarios based on FCM and ranking the scenarios. In the first step, four technology-based scenarios for the future of power industry, which are the result of investment priorities in the industry, are determined so that in the next step by placing these scenarios in the FCM of Iran power industry, simulation of these scenarios based on the FCM is carried out. In the final step, the ranking of the scenarios resulted from the results of simulation of scenarios is performed using TOPSIS technique. Accordingly, the scenario of electricity generation development from new and renewable energy is the first priority. Smart power grid development scenario has the second priority, continuing past routines scenario power generation based on fossil plant has the third priority, and the scenario of the development of nuclear energy in power generation has the fourth priority in order to achieve the desirable future of the power industry from the perspective of this study.