نشریه تصمیم گیری و تحقیق در عملیات
سال ششم شماره 4 (زمستان 1400)

Covid-19 virus is a major threat to the health and safety of people around the world. One of the key components in dealing with this global threat is rapid and timely decision-making to control the epidemic of the disease, so predicting the future trend of this disease in the world, including predicting deaths, can be useful for policy-making, management and control of its prevalence. Therefore, the mortality rate caused by this virus has been predicted with grey models in the world.

This study examines the process of predicting mortality rates in the world using the theory of grey systems models. Research data were collected from the World Health Organization website and predicted the number of deaths in the world on a monthly basis by five methods GM (1, 1), Verhulst Grey, DGM (1, 1), NGBM (1, 1) and FNGBM(1, 1). In order to evaluate the error of the models, the common error evaluation criteria MAE, RMSE and MAPE were used.

By evaluating the model error, the prediction of the F-NGBM model (1, 1) in the category of excellent models, the prediction values of the GreyVerhulst model are in the category of acceptable predictions and the rest of the models are in the category of good predictions. Also, the F-NGBM (1, 1) model with MAE, RMSE and MAPE error values of 26989.54, 21533.94 and 7.21, respectively, is the most suitable model compared to the other methods. An estimated 250,958 deaths are estimated by the F-NGBM (1.1) model by the end of 2021, which may be the most appropriate value among forecasting methods.

 Due to the lack of historical data and also a lot of uncertainty in the available data, it is necessary to use approaches to dealing with uncertainty such as the grey system theory in predicting the mortality rate of this disease. Various grey predictions estimate the mortality rate, which requires relatively less data than existing methods, and the model error is much lower. The study also looked at the worldwide mortality rate and will be more comprehensive on integrated global action.

This study was carried out to propose cost and revenue models for evaluating road and urban construction and development projects in Shiraz (Iran) using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and DEA based ratio data, (DEA-R) techniques. Today, we are encountering controllable and uncontrollable data in some projects. In this research, cost and revenue efficiency models were proposed considering controllable and uncontrollable indicators.

In this research, cost and revenue efficiency model with controllable and uncontrollable indicators in DEA and DEA-R is presented, also by measuring cost and revenue efficiency with controllable and uncontrollable indicators to compare the results between these two models Been paid.

By comparing the results between cost and revenue efficiency models with controllable and uncontrollable indicators in DEA and DEA-R, it was concluded that it is not possible to make a logical comparison between them. But the proposed models can be important in order to use the input to output ratios. In some decision-making units, similar behavior may be present in DEA and DEA-R, but it is not a criterion for general comparison.

 In this paper, a model for measuring cost and revenue efficiency with controllable and uncontrollable indicators was presented, which can be an introduction to provide more models for measuring cost and revenue efficiency under real conditions.

Despite increasing advances in project management, a very large proportion of projects still fail. Because there is no comprehensive approach to fully evaluate projects. Therefore, in this research, a new method for evaluating the efficiency of projects has been introduced, which is well understood due to the quantitative and qualitative nature of the designed model.

This research is applied in nature and the research method used in it is case study. Various methods such as library studies, searching articles and journals related to the research topic have been used to obtain information in the theoretical sections, and interviews and questionnaire have been used to determine the indicators. After extracting the indicators and designing the network structure based on the perspective of the balanced scorecard, the data envelopment analysis network model was designed and then the model was solved and finally the results were analyzed.

Using the designed model, the efficiency and performance of Shiraz Civil Institute projects is evaluated from four financial perspectives, stakeholders and partners, and internal processes, and growth and learning. And according to the results, 33% of the projects of the Civil Institute are inefficient and the rest of the projects are efficient.

 The model presented in this paper is a combination of network data envelopment analysis and balanced scorecard, and a systematic relationship has been established between the two methods, so that one of them complements and covers the weaknesses of the other method.

Today, with the development of e-commerce, society is experiencing a business revolution. E-commerce gradually has been accepted more and more and changed people’s lives. The aim of this research is to determine to the critical performance criteria in balanced evaluation of Iranian online B2C business stores using a hybrid Balanced Scorecard (BSC) and multi criteria decision making (Fuzzy ANP and Fuzzy WASPAS) approach.

Considering research objective, it’s an applied research, regarding method it’s descriptive and based on analysis method, it’s a quantitative- mathematical modeling study. The statistical population of this study includes owners of online businesses in Rasht city.

After reviewing the literature and identifying online stores’ evaluation criteria, these criteria were classified based on the four perspectives of BSC. Next, the importance of the criteria was determined using the Fuzzy Analytical Network Process (ANP) technique, among which operation management (0.15848), sales (0.14957), market share (0.13710), customer satisfaction (0.12409) and customer relationship management (0.10527) are the most important criteria, respectively. Finally, based on the results of evaluating 10 Iranian online stores using Fuzzy WASPAS technique, Digi Kala, Digi Style, and Chareh stores were ranked first to third.

In this research, B2C online store brands were evaluated and ranked with a mixed approach of FANP and FWASPAS and based on the research results, executive and research proposals were presented.

The purpose of this paper is to apply a composite index for environmental quality to investigate the threshold impact of financial development on this composite index; Because the use of this composite index, which includes all dimensions of environmental pollution, can provide more accurate results for us in this study.

In order to rech the research goals, annual data for selected OPEC countries over the period of 2000 to 2019 and Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) approach are used. Firstly, a composite environmental quality index is created as a dependent variable in the model and then, the pre-estimations (including cross-sectional dependence, second-generation unit root, nonlinear association existence, no-remaining nonlinear association existence) are investigated. Finally, the threshold impact of financial development on environmental quality are estimated.

The results indicate a non-linear relationship between the studied variables. According to the test of no-remaining nonlinear association, the inclusion of a transfer function with a threshold parameter which is representing a two-regime model, is recommended to determine the nonlinear relationship between variables. Financial development (bank- and market-oriented) in first regime have a positive effect, but by crossing of threshold and entering to second regime it has negative effect on environmental quality. Accordingly, there is a U-shaped relationship between financial development and environmental quality. Given the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality in the two regimes, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is also confirmed. The trade openness and, research and development expenditures in both regimes have negative and positive effects on the composite environmental quality index, respectively.

Based on the results, some policy suggestions and new recommendations are presented for future studies, which would contribute to the better implementation of economic–environmental policies.

Selection of the appropriate process is one of the most important issues prior to design and construct any wastewater treatment plant. Considering the importance of this issue, current study was carried out to selecting the best wastewater treatment process in city of Farmahin.

In this descriptive study that conducted in 2021, three wastewater treatment processes named: Activated Sludge with nitrogen and phosphorus removal, Extended Aeration with nitrogen and phosphorus removal and Membrane Bioreactor were considered as problem alternatives. The required data was obtained by distributing a researcher-made questionnaire consisting of cost, technical, environmental and managerial criteria among 21 experts. The weight of each attribute was determined using the Entropy method and finally, decision matrix was processed by using one of the newest multiple attribute decision making methods called “Measurement Alternatives and Ranking according to COmpromise Solution (MARCOS)”. It should be noted that all calculations were performed using Excel 2016 software.

The results showed extended aeration with nitrogen and phosphorus removal with 0.758 utility function has taken first priority, activated sludge with removal of nitrogen and phosphorus with a 0.723 utility function has taken second priority and finally membrane bioreactor with 0.576 utility function has taken last priority. Therefore, the best wastewater treatment process in the city of Farmahin is extended aeration with nitrogen and phosphorus removal.

 In this paper, by using one of the newest multiple Attribute decision making methods called "MARCOS", the best wastewater treatment process for the city of Farmahin was selected. The results of this research are very useful for the Markazi Province Water and Wastewater Company.

The present study concludes that by designing and presenting a mathematical model of multi-objective cogeneration production planning, multi-stage products for several periods in the reverse supply chain under uncertainty conditions were presented using a genetic meta-heuristic algorithm.

The first objective function of the model is to minimize costs, the second objective function is to maximize the quality of products in the supply chain, and the third and fourth objective functions are to minimize the total weight of the maximum shortage among customers and to maximize the total weight of the minimum supply. Goods from suppliers. In this model, the first and second objective functions are designed in the case of uncertainty- possible fuzzy stability by Malvey method based on scenario writing.

The results of solving the proposed applied mathematical model developed by coding in MATLAB software were approved by the officials of Borujen Strong Stream Concrete Company, which are given in Tables (16) and (17).

 What is important in designing this model, which is formulated in a non-linear programming and has not been observed in similar studies, is the existence of a reconstruction center and a maintenance center and considering target functions for customer and supplier satisfaction and also paying attention to product quality. Suppliers and the product produced by the manufacturer.

The purpose of this study is to survey the relationship between the conflict of interest and ethical decision making in auditors with the moderate role of ethical judgment with a combination of social cognitive theory and throughput model of decision-making. Social cognition theory refers to environmental effects on individuals. The throughput model of decision-making also examines the factors influencing decision-making.

In this study, by combining the mentioned approaches and using the "stimulus-organism-response" model, the research topic was investigated. This research is an applied and descriptive-correlational study and its population include various auditors in the country, 170 of whom were selected using simple random sampling in 2020. Structural equation analysis and Smart PLS software were used to test the hypotheses.

Findings showed that there is a negative and significant relationship (40%) between the conflict of interest and moral decision making. Also, increasing conflict of interest reduces moral judgment (50%) and decreasing moral judgment reduces the level of moral decision-making (51%). In general, there is a negative relationship between conflict of interest and moral decision-making, which is reduced in the presence of moral judgment, due to its positive effect on moral decision-making.

 Research findings confirm the importance of psychological and behavioral factors should be given more attention.

Performance measurement in humanitarian logistics is considered as one of the basic elements of successful humanitarian operations at operational, tactical and strategic levels. The main purpose of this research is to identify and to extract key performance indicators in humanitarian logistics, evaluating the indicators and explaining the relationship between them using path analysis approach and decision-making techniques of Fuzzy DEMATEL and SWARA and outline future research opportunities to measure performance in humanitarian logistics.

Performance measurement in humanitarian logistics is considered as one of the basic elements of successful humanitarian operations at operational, tactical and strategic levels. The main purpose of this research is to identify and to extract key performance indicators in humanitarian logistics, evaluating the indicators and explaining the relationship between them using path analysis approach and decision-making techniques of Fuzzy DEMATEL and SWARA and outline future research opportunities to measure performance in humanitarian logistics.

The final finding of relationship analysis showed that "donation to delivery time" is the most influential indicator in terms of influencing other indicators. Finally, considering the sensitivity of ranking these indicators in terms of importance, the opinions of 20 experts and decision-making techniques SWARA used. The final output of this technique indicates the extraction of the fourth functional index i.e. "evaluation accuracy includes: speed and accuracy of committed donation and relief items delivered to stakeholders and how to assess the needs of stakeholders by employees" with the highest weight in the first rank as the most important functional indicator of humanitarian logistics and the second functional index i.e. "donation time includes "The delivery time of relief items in the country of destination after a donation and the collective remembrance of the donation" is important in the last rank.

 In this study, performance indicators in humanitarian logistics were evaluated and ranked using a combined approach of path analysis and decision-making techniques (fuzzy DEMATEL and SWARA) and based on the research results, executive and research proposals were presented.

The purpose of this article is to design a GSNCL optimization in the dairy industry of Damdaran using FGP model.

This article is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of data type and how to implement descriptive-survey research and dissertation modeling, with a FGP approach and has optimized the GSNCL in Damdaran industry. The society and the statistical sample consisted of 15 experts in the dairy industry of Damdaran, who have at least 10 years of executive experience in these industries and evaluation of supply network, as well as academic professors specializing in the field of GSNCL.

The results of modeling and solving the numerical model, the importance of the role of financial dimension and simultaneous consideration of the environmental, financial and social dimensions in the mathematical model to gain competitive advantage of the GSNCL. Also, cost parameters have a positive effect on the economic performance of the main supply chain program, but by examining these parameters in sensitivity analysis, it causes a decrease in production performance in social and environmental dimensions.

Knowledge-enhancing research from an applied point of view can provide important information for decision makers, senior managers of dairy industry in the country about optimizing the GSNCL and maintaining the environment. The innovation aspect of the present study is to design a four-objective model to minimize economic costs, emissions of pollutant gases throughout the living network, the amount of social damages, and maximize the total revenue generated from the sale of products during the supply network using FGP. Modeling of FGP problem in a multilevel, multi-round and multi-product supply network has been carried out with the aim of minimizing undesirable deviations of each of the four ideals from the desired level.

Efficiency is an economic concept which shows the performance of a wide range of economic activities in different areas of an economic sector. Most of studies using frontier technique Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) do not test for the relationship of efficiency estimation with key performance indicators. This is despite the fact that DEA is one of the most effective tools for measuring and evaluating efficiency. Nevertheless, identifying the relationship between efficiency estimates and commonly accepted financial measures of performance could guide benchmarking activities, pricing decisions, and regulatory monitoring.

 In this paper, the DEA super-efficiency formula is tested in two profitability models. Four ratios of net interest income to total assets, post-tax profit to total assets, owner’s equity returns and impaired loans to total assets, were calculated with a developed profitability model; besides, the growth rate of assets was calculated with main profitability model and all the aforementioned ratios addressed a significant association with efficiency estimates.

In this study, the DEA super-efficiency formula is tested in two profitability models for 15 banks for two years. The correlation obtained is generally low. However, the four ratios of net interest income to total assets, post-tax profit to total assets, owner’s equity returns and impaired loans to total assets, in the EPM model and asset growth rate in the CPM model have a significant relationship with performance estimates. Finally, the results indicate poor credit quality in Iranian banks in 1397-1397.

In this study, for the first time, the nature of the relationship between performance and key performance indicators has been estimated. DEA technique has been used to purposefully identify criteria for analyzing financial ratios.

The present research seeks to identify the structure, how they interact and examine the factors that show the openness of the boundaries of the ecosystem of open R&D. For this purpose, the field of nanotechnology in Iran has been selected as the field of study.

In terms of research method, this research is mixed and in terms of result, it is an application that has been done with the approach of Grandad theory, and research data were collected through library studies (a reference to existing documents and study of previous research), open interviews, and three semi-structured questionnaires.The statistical population is selected through a judgment-targeted method.7 academic experts (professors of R&D policies), 4 entrepreneurs(nanoscale-certified firms), and 4 policymakers in the nanotechnology sector (National Nanotechnology Initiative) were interviewed.Analysis of qualitative data obtained from open interviews with experts in Atlas.ti software, analysis of interrelationships through the Fuzzy-DEMATEL method in Exell, and analysis of the best decision and ranking of effective criteria for Monitoring the openness of the research and development ecosystem is performed by network analysis based on Fuzzy-DEMATEL method (DANP) in SuperDecision software.

The findings of this study show that the structure of the R&D ecosystem in Iran`s nanotechnology has ecosystemic dimensions which consist of Human resources, Infrastructure, Financial resources, Governance as well as performance dimensions which consist of commercialization, scientific works, and patents as IP. Another finding of this study is that the Performance dimension has the greatest impact on reopening the frontiers of R&D in Iran's nanotechnology and the commercialization criteria have the highest weight to monitor the R&D ecosystem.

 In addition to enabling policymakers to evaluate and measure policies and decisions made over time, it also helps companies streamline their knowledge and technology resources to learn, collaborate, and transfer Manage foreign companies and vice versa.

The complex conditions prevailing in the industries and the increasing costs of production equipment and machinery and competitiveness in gaining market share, show the role and importance of production planning and maintenance with other parts of the industry. Integrating such decisions can take fundamental steps to reduce costs and increase quality. Maintaining and creating the continuity of production activities depends on accurate and correct planning of production, maintenance activities and how to support these processes. The need for integration and coherence in the simultaneous planning of such activities causes a lack of rework and parallel work and obstacles and delays and inconsistencies at different levels of production.

In this research, a two-objective mathematical model of production planning and repairs with limited resources is presented in conditions of uncertainty.

The results of comparing accurate and meta-innovative solutions show the improvement in the company's products and the optimal use of material and human resources. Sensitivity analysis also shows that the failure rate of the machine before and after preventive maintenance has a great impact on the value of the objective function of the mathematical model. The results show that the average error of the ant algorithm is only 3%. This is while the average solving time in GAMZ is 45,000 seconds, while the average solving time of the ant algorithm is about 354 seconds.

This shows that the ant algorithm has a very small amount of error with much less time and therefore the efficiency of this solution method can be well explained.

Evaluating the cost efficiency of a network system using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models can be improved from various aspects that exist in real applications. In this study, the aim is to consider a specific set of weights to evaluate cost efficiency in a two-stage network system.

In this research, using data envelopment analysis method, an attempt is made to provide a model for evaluating the cost of the network system.

The results showed that considering the relationships between different stages in a network system can directly affect the results. This issue has been investigated from cost optimization assessments. Considering the set of weights from different aspects can affect the scores obtained.

 According to the models and methods in the literature, in this study, a model is presented that considers cost efficiency in a two-stage model.