اصغر ابوالحسنی

The purpose of this research is investigating the reaction function of the monetary policy maker in the framework of Taylor's laws and production targeting during the seasonal the period of 1370:1-1398:4, with using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) method and Bayesian techniques. Therefore, at first, a new Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with investment adjustment costs, prices and real wage stickiness, public sector and imperfect competition, along with various shocks is designed and then with using Bayesian methods, we estimate and compare these models on the data of Iran. The results have shown that first; The impact of monetary policy shocks on the variables used in the models is in the same direction. Secondly; The effectiveness of production variables and inflation rate from monetary shocks of nominal GDP targeting law is more than Taylor's law and mainly this law is preferred by the data of Iran. Third: With the occurrence of a monetary shock within the framework of the aforementioned rules, the variables of inflation rate and interest rate have decreased simultaneously, which indicates the suitability of the variable of interest rate as a tool for the monetary policy maker. . . .

Undoubtedly, poverty and inequality is one of the undesirable phenomena of social life, and all human societies have put the reduction and eventual elimination of it at the top of their goals. The present study measures poverty in urban and rural areas of West Azerbaijan province. To measure and determine the factors affecting poverty in West Azerbaijan province, firstly, the reliability of the model variables was investigated by generalized Fuller dictation test. Then, using the ARDL model, the error correction model (ECM) in two separate models for the city and the village During the course (1993- 2021) has been investigated. Also, by using Johansen Juselius test, convergent vectors were determined and then the effects of shocks and shocks on co-incidence vectors were discussed and analyzed. The results of the study show that at a significant level of 5%, the variables of urban and rural value added, exchange rate, unemployment rate, total income of the province and consumer price index have a significant impact on the urban and rural poverty gap. Macro and national level; By stabilizing inflation, unemployment and exchange rates and at the regional level by planning in line with the province's capacities in the sectors of conversion industries, mining processing and border capacity, to reduce poverty in the study area.

Islamic banking is an emerging research in the field of banking studies. Studies can be further expanded due to the lack of extensive research in this area. A major part of this literature includes a comparative study of Islamic banking and its conventional counterparts based on their performance and the subject matter of their legislation. Islamic banking and finance have emerged as an attractive field in academic research over the past decade. Islamic countries are among the developing and less developed countries of the global economic community. With financial assets valued at approximately $ 1.8 trillion worldwide, Islamic banking and finance have led to friction between Islamic and non-Islamic financial markets over the past decade. The growing severity of the recurring financial crises seen in the recent financial crises of 2008-2007 has put a lot of pressure on the conventional financial system and put it back under the microscope. While some have turned their attention to methods and tools for resolving instability in an interest-based system, others are looking for alternative financial systems. In this regard, the Islamic financial system seems to offer a promising path to future financial resilience and stability. So far, however, this view has largely been published mainly in professional circles and has recently become the subject of academic research. Islamic financial institutions act as major hubs in about 75 countries, mainly in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Bahrain and Malaysia. Islamic financial products have grown rapidly in recent decades in competition with the conventional financial industry in both Muslim and Muslim minority countries. As a non-competitive industry, the Islamic financial industry is becoming a market that can compete in many countries. The growth of Islamic financial services has attracted a great deal of attention from around the world, with nearly 25 percent of Islamic financial institutions operating in non-Muslim countries; At the same time, the conventional banking system has begun to open the windows of Islamic banking around the world, primarily in Europe and North America. In this study, an attempt is made to investigate the effect of capital adequacy index on the efficiency and risk-taking of Islamic and conventional banks for 51 Islamic and conventional banks in the period 2012-2017.

 The present article intends to evaluate the effect of capital adequacy on the efficiency and risk-taking of Islamic and conventional banks with an analytical-descriptive approach and examines the role of various indicators in this analysis. The method used in this The research is to provide a model of the quantum method and the software used by Eviews. This study also examined data related to 51 Islamic and conventional banks in 8 countries in the period 2012-2017.

The results of this study showed that in the conventional banking group, the capital adequacy index had a positive and significant effect on efficiency. According to other results, in the Islamic banking group, the capital adequacy index has a negative and significant effect on banking efficiency.

The results of this study show that in the group of conventional banks, efficiency also increases with increasing capital adequacy. The results of the studied quantiles also show that in high quantities (rates) of efficiency, the effect of capital adequacy on efficiency increases. In other words, with increasing the level of efficiency, the effect of capital adequacy on efficiency also increases. Also, the estimation results for the Islamic banking group show that the capital adequacy index has a negative and significant effect on banking efficiency, but at high efficiency rates, the negative impact of the capital adequacy index on banking efficiency has decreased. In other words, with the increase in the efficiency of Islamic banks, the negative effects of capital adequacy have decreased. Also, the results of estimating the risk model for Islamic banks show that the model has a width of origin with a positive sign; Banking variables including net loan to total assets ratio, capital adequacy and total assets, have a negative and significant relationship with the risk of Islamic banks and also the results of risk model estimation for conventional banks show that the model has a width of origin. With a positive sign; Banking variables including net loan to total assets ratio, capital adequacy and total assets, have a negative and significant relationship with the risk of Islamic banks.

The tourism is considered as one of the factors of achieving economic growth and development, but terrorist activities through damage to the infrastructure, and physical and human resources as well as indirect effects such as reducing the desire to foreign and domestic invest, increasing the cost of trade and weakening it, intensifying uncertainty, making space more secure and increasing military and security expenses, etc., lead to damage to the tourism industry of a country. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of terrorist activities on tourism demand in selected West Asian countries during the period of 1990-2019 using panel data. The results showed that the effect of terrorist incidents on tourism demand is negative and significant. Meanwhile, the more terrorist casualties in a country, the lower the number of international tourists entering that country, because the societies in which psychological and life security of tourists are preserved, they will be more beneficial to tourists, and they will be the priority of their choice for travel.

Recognizing the effective factors in the formation and fluctuations of the exchange rate in the long run, as well as knowing how the exchange rate influents from economic policies to align with the desired goals are among the necessities of a successful economic plan. Accordingly, this study investigates the long-term and short-term factors affecting the real exchange rate of Iran and estimates the coefficients of the relevant variables using the vector error correction model (VECM) in the framework of behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model (BEER). Monitoring the trend of deviation of the actual real exchange rate from the long-term equilibrium exchange rate during the years 1973-2017, according to the selected quantitative goals of the Sixth Economic Development Plan of Iran, the real exchange rate and the equilibrium exchange rate of the country has been estimated during. The results of this study show that due to the failure to achieve the goals in the first three years of the Sixth Plan, the nominal exchange rate gap from the equilibrium exchange rate has reached an average of about 25 percent annually. In addition, the pressure of monetary inflation, reduced production growth and increased systemic risk of the country has led to a continuous increase in the nominal exchange rate in the parallel market.

In this research, the effect of the number of branches and the geographical distribution of bank branches on the profitability of Bank Sepah in Ardebil province has been studied. In this study, data and information related to Sepah Bank in Ardabil province in the period 1371 to 1399 are collected and in the form of time series data and cross-sectional data are estimated in two separate models. The results of the model estimation showed that the geographical distribution of the bank branches affects their profitability and this effect is statistically significant at a significant level of 5%. In other words, the branch operating in high-income areas of the city has a higher profitability compared to the middle and low income regions. The number of Bank Sepah Branches also has a positive effect on bank profitability and this effect is statistically significant at a significant level of 5%. Also the loan to the asset ratio, the size of the bank and the market share of the bank has a positive and significant effect on its profitability. Also, at a significant level of 5%, the number of years of activity of the bank branch has a positive and significant effect on its profitability.

Financial crises can quickly affect the real sector of the economy and be detrimental to the economy. Therefore, dealing with these crises as well as preparing for them should be among the most important economic priorities. It is worth noting in such a situation, concepts such as financial fragility become important which is one of the most important factors affecting corruption.

In this study, using the quantitative regression method, the effect of corruption on financial fragility in the period 2012-2021 has been studied. The statistical population of this research is includes companies active in the Tehran Stock Exchange market, among these companies, 86 companies were selected as the research sample. 

The results of model estimation showed that high level of corruption (low level of corruption perception index) increases the financial fragility of companies and therefore confirms the inefficiency of corruption. Because corruption in various forms such as taking bribes to grant special privileges to a particular company, low-interest loans and financial and tax protections of some companies in the face of financial crises affect the financial fragility of companies. The size of companies also had a negative effect on financial fragility, but this effect was not statistically significant at the 5% level. The impact of tangible assets as well as fixed assets of companies on financial fragility is negative and significant. Because the increase in the level of fixed and tangible assets of companies indicates the high (increase) of total assets of the company and generally increases their ability to cope with financial crises as well as bankruptcy, thereby reducing the financial fragility of companies. The effect of financial leverage on the financial fragility of the company is positive and significant. Because the higher the financial leverage of the company and in other words, the higher the corporate debt compared to its assets, the higher the probability of financial crisis and the risk of bankruptcy in the companies under study in the face of economic cycles. Economic growth also has a negative impact on the financial fragility of the companies under study. Because the higher the economic growth rate, the higher the company's revenues due to this economic growth and the lower the probability of financial problems and shortages in the company, which in turn reduces the financial fragility of companies. Also, the effect of inflation on the financial fragility of the studied companies is positive and significant. Because rising inflation increases the total cost of companies, including the cost of purchasing raw materials and machinery, as well as other consumption and current costs, and thus increases the likelihood of financial crises and bankruptcy.

High levels of corruption increase the financial fragility of companies. Because the high corruption perception index (low level of corruption) is associated with a higher level than the Z-Score index (low financial fragility) and as a result, the second view confirms the impact of corruption on the economy or the theory of corruption inefficiency. Therefore, in order to reduce financial fragility, the relevant institutions should pay serious attention to dealing with corruption.

The banking industry is one of the most important and fundamental sectors of the economy and the main bedrock for the growth and dynamism of the financial system and consequently economic growth and development. One of the problems that various countries, including Iran, are facing in the current situation is the increase in         non-performing loans of banks in relation to the total loans granted in the banking system, which indicates an increase in credit risk, reduced quality of assets of this system and possible financial stabilization in the future. The ratio of non-performing loans has different effects on macroeconomic variables due to the different functions of private and public banks. On the other hand, one of the most important macroeconomic variables, economic growth means a continuous increase in the level of production of society, which reflects the level of welfare and economic power of any society. If the non-performing loans increase, the lending power of banks wil decrease while increasing the need for public and private reserves of banks to manage its risk. This will reduce the possibility of financing in the economy and the country's economic growth. In this study, using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares Method (FMOLS), the effect of the increase of non-performing loans by public and private banks on Iran's economic growth is shown. The results of this study show that increasing the ratio of non-performing loans of public and private banks has similarly reduced Iran's economic growth. Also, private sector credit, employees with university degrees and gross fixed capital formation have a positive effect on economic growth while price index and government size have a negative effect on it.

Financial development is one of the most important causes of economic growth. Economic growth is a key variable of every economy, so analysis the factors that affect Economic growth is important, too. In this paper, the effect of financial development on the economic growth of the country during the period of 1989 to 2016 has been studied. In order to increase accuracy and flexibility of results, we use the TVP-FAVAR model which make possible to change coefficient and participant of individual variables at any point of time. At first, latent financial development variable in Iran economy has been estimated; Then, we specify the model of study by using the variables of liquidity volume, oil revenues, economic growth and financial development. The results of the impulse- response functions show that a shock in the latent financial development has had a positive effect on economic growth during the years under study. The results also show that the shock caused by oil revenues will only lead to an increase in economic growth over the short term and will be adjusted over several years, while the effects of liquidity shocks on the results of most years have had a neutral effect on economic growth.

The experience of many successful tourism destinations in the world in the long term has shown that Tourism development management should be comply with the specific conditions of the regions. Due to this fact, the tourism development in Iran has always undergone dramatic changes, and the extent of development is not suited to the potential capacity. In this research, the researcher focused on answering the question that how the behavioral model of the development of the tourism industry in Iran, with emphasis on the entry of foreign tourists, is. Considering the subject, the present study is based on the survey-exploratory nature and has used a quantitative approach of hypothesis and structural equations to achieve the desired model. The research community consists of executives and activists in the tourism industry. The final result of the research has determined the development dimensions of the tourism industry of the country with the goal of foreign tourists in three dimensions: foreign tourist sender principles, transportation, domestic tourist destinations. On the other hand, these three dimensions define the type of influential behavior in three domains: Institutionalized behavior, Public behavior, Production behavior.

The water distribution department of urban water and wastewater companies is of natural monopoly characteristic, and requires regulating. The aim of this research is to regulate urban water and wastewater companies in Iran using a price-cap regulation approach to improve their productivity. For this purpose, using the data of municipal water and wastewater companies over the period 2011-2016, the X-factor for the price-cap regulation is calculated using two productivity growth and inefficiency balance scenarios. In this scenario building, the quality of service is included in the calculation of the X factor. Experimental results show that the inclusion of the service quality index in the calculation of X-factor reduces the rate of productivity improvement of the companies. In addition, the more efficient companies have the lower X-factors, and as a result, experience a higher price cap. This reality encourages companies to increase their efficiency and productivity.

The purpose of this study is to apply dynamic efficiency in regulation of urban water and wastewater companies in Iran. To this end, a dynamic stochastic frontier model that considers the heterogeneity in the long-term technical eficiency of the companies has been used to estimate the dynamic efficiency of 35 urban water and wastewater companies for the period of 2011-16 using the Bayesian approach. The research findings show that, in the absence of heterogeneity among companies, the inefficiency persistence is greater than the time when this heterogeneity is considered.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of policy tools such as interest rate and exchange rate on inflation targeting in the form of new Keynesian model in terms of heterogeneity of economic agents' expectations. For this purpose, the statistical data of the period 1990-2018 were used based on the frequency of seasonal data. In this study, the model of rational expectations and limited expectations based on the pattern of comparative expectations for applying the limitations of the operators of expectation formation in economic agents has been used to predict macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that the shock of the exchange rate and the interest rate through a cost shock led to an increase in the inflation rate. Also, if the expectations of economic agents are rational, they have had less degree of flexibility than expectations have been adapted in a comparative way. Therefore, given the significant impact of the formation of the expectations of economic agents in inflation expectations, it can be seen that inflationary expectations in the country are also exacerbated by inflationary pressures in the country, which will affect the fluctuation of inflation. The transparency and integrity of the information and credibility of policymakers makes economic agents to shape their expectations with the least error and to prevent the negative effects of fluctuations of inflation on expectations change significantly.

Increased pollution and environmental degradation due to the unilateral development of the industry is one of the issues of interest from international assemblies, conservation organizations and the prevailing view of environmentalists. This, despite the great influence on the economic growth and development of the regions, has created a great deal of danger for the inhabitants of the planet and destroyed the environment by reducing the fertility of the environment. But the expressed view, with the view of development economists, that it is said that in the early stages of development, it is accompanied by a deterioration in the environment, but then reaches a certain level of growth, and at this point, growth tends to improve in the environment (U-inversion hypothesis), especially for developing countries like Iran, and the same, researchers have discussed the relationship between economic growth and air pollution in Iran and the confirmation or rejection of the U-inversion Kuznets hypothesis, with application Indicators of industrialization, economic status, and energy consumption during the period from 1365 to 1395;The results of the estimation of the research model confirm the Kuznets hypothesis in Iran, as well as the significance of the role of industrialization of the country and energy consumption (in reverse) and And the lack of influence of the education indicator (in a current manner) in improving the quality of the environment.

The purpose of the present study is to investigate the role of policy instruments such as interest rate and exchange rate on inflation targeting in the new Keynesian model in terms of heterogeneous economic agents' expectations (HANK). In this study, the model of rational expectations and constrained expectations based on adaptive expectations model is used to apply constraints of expectations shaping operators in economic agents to predict macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that expected inflation is a factor affecting inflation. In this case, it can be said that in order to control the inflation rate, one important policy that should be followed by the central bank is to control and manage expectations. The output gap coefficient, as expected, is negative. This rate reflects structural problems with the supply of goods. The results indicate that the major factor affecting inflation is the money growth rate. In this channel model, the effect of money growth rate on inflation is expected inflation, which is a considerable amount given the high rates of money growth in recent years. So the growth of the money supply will have a huge impact on the inflation rate.

This paper examines the relationship of investment in transport infrastructure and economy of Iran from 1959 to 2015 using VAR and VECM model.
The results of research using Cointegration tase and Wald test (Considering the significance of the coefficients) in short and long term showed that:Economic growth has a meaningful reaction to investment fluctuations in transport infrastructure in short and long term, and investment in transport infrastructure has a meaningful reaction to economic growth fluctuations in long term and short term.
so, investment in transport infrastructure and economic growth fluctuations in long and short term has two-way communication and that is the Progress in each one leads to another growth.

The present paper tries to investigate the effect of liquidity volatility on income inequality in Iran with a new approach  using nonlinear ARDL(NARDL) techniques and Liquidity, unemployment rate, real GDP and Gini coefficient as research variables.The results of research showed that:Income inequality shows a significant reaction to liquidity fluctuations.The results of Wald Test showed that the impact of income inequality on liquidity fluctuations is  Symmetrical and other results indicate theThe positive effect of unemployment rate and the negative effect of gdp on inequality in Iran.

The present study investigates the effect of capital on liquidity and credit risks in the banking industry of Iran using a GMM system. Eviews9 and stata12 software have been used to carry out this research. The research findings show that there is a significant and significant correlation between bank capital and risk in the banking industry of Iran, so that by increasing the capital of a bank by as much as one percent, the liquidity risk on the basis of various indexes can decrease from 0/1% to 0/4% Find out.In the case of credit risk, the increase in bank capital leads to a reduction in credit risk from 5/7 to 6/8 percent. Based on the findings of this research and tests, the ethical hazard theory in the banking industry is confirmed. And the charter theory regarding the banking system of Iran is not approved. In this study, the size of the bank shows a direct and significant relationship with liquidity risk, so that a unit of increase in the bank's size index has increased the risk of liquidity from 0/003 to 0/008. There is also a meaningful relationship between the variables of economics and the risk of liquidity and credit. The results of the research also suggest that risk management in banks depends not only on internal banking factors, but also on macroeconomic factors.

Iran’s tourism development has undergone extreme changes due to its taking effect of global space and also the level of its abilities in tourism – related areas; and its development does not correspond with its potential power properly. On the other hand, considering Iran’s economic conditions in  new international space and increasing economic sanctions against Iran, the researcher of this thesis aims to answer the question that how Iran’s tourism development sample with emphasizing foreign tourists arrival is possible? Regarding this issue, this study is surveying- exploratory research and uses the combined approach of qualitative and quantitative research methods to reach the mentioned samples. administrators and tourism activists were selected as statistical society. The final sample of research determined the developmental dimensions of the country’s tourism with the aim of international tourists in three aspects: Those foreign countries which send tourist, Transportation, Domestic destinations for tourists. The included the factors and variables affecting the development of Iran's tourism industry in a hierarchy with primary and secondary factors and indices related to them. This hierarchy was obtained by analyzing and prioritizing the influential factors in the tourism industry of Iran.

Different dimensions of tourism and its relations with religious is an important issue in state management and religious stability planning. According to the important of recognizing correlation between different types of tourism with economy, the paper has studied the tendency of managers to modern, local and religious tourism. In fact, the paper is measured the quantity of managers tourism tendencies. A researcher-made questionnaire was used to collect information. The results showed that the relationship between all independent variables of research with the dimensions of collective tourism (religious, local/Eco-Tourism and modern) was significant. Among the variables, the value tendency system with a coefficient of 0.13 and religiosity with a regression coefficient of 0.255 are the most effective variables on religious tourism. The results also show that the variables of language and dialect with an effect level of 183/0, education with a coefficient of 142 religiosity with a coefficient of 0.41 are the most effective variables on local tourism. In the case of modern tourism, the variables of the value tendency system with the effect of 0.136, and religiosity with the coefficient of regression of -0.176 are the most effective variables on modern tourism.

This paper aims to identify factors affecting the price and production fluctuations in Iran's economy with an emphasis on the housing sector. A New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is designed for this purpose. This model of economy contains a representative household, a firm producing final goods in the housing sector, a firm producing final goods in a non-housing sector, a series of producers of intermediate goods in the housing sector and non-housing sectors, and a government monetary authority or an agent that is a combination of government and the central bank. The results show that a technological shock in non-housing sector has led to an increase in production and investment, a reduction of inflation in this sector, and an increase in household consumption expenditures. In the housing sector, too, the shock has increased production and investment. Given the relationship that has already existed between the housing and non- housing sector, the rise in the former has contributed to the production in the latter. A shock to the money growth rate, as a monetary policy, has boosted the inflation rate and the output growth rate in both sectors. Due to the higher elasticity of supply in the non-housing sector, the effect of the monetary shock on production in this sector is greater than that on the housing sector. Also, a shock in the government spending has increased production and inflation in both sectors and this impact on the price indices in both sectors is longer lasting than on production.

Some economists believe that economic crises and problems, such as economic volatility, high unemployment and inflation and the social losses, stem from the government's economic intervention and the implementation of its imperative policies. In this regard, the lack of implementation of the government’s imperative policies by central bank and its independence is still a controversial issue. In the present paper, using Stackelberg model and game theory approach, the efficiency of bond issuance is evaluated as a result of central bank independence and its effect on social loss. For this purpose, a 3-player game including government, central bank and speculators having different objective functions, is designed for Iran. Modeling and numerical analyzing are performed using softwares GAMS and MAPLE during 2005 to 2009. According to minimization of social loss, the results indicate if the government does not play a dominant leadership role, and conversely, if the central bank exerts its leadership in making monetary policy via open market operations (central bank independence), the social loss can be reached to its minimum level.

The aim of this paper is to model allocation of resources based on a stochastic dynamic optimization model in the banking system of Iran. To this end, using the bank level data by the Euler-Marviam simulation method, simulation of resource allocation model and optimal allocation time Resources were obtained numerically over the course of the 24-month period. The results showed that important variables such as expected rate of profit, profit risk and fluctuation of each type of facility have a significant impact on their share. Also, the findings show that whatever the expected profit of the facility increases and the risk and fluctuation of it decreases, it will account for more share of the various types of facilities. Based on the results, the specialized entry of banks to participatory facilities and increase their share is proposed to increase profitability.