بیژن صفوی

The oil revenue is considered a key variable in economic policies, which has always been in the focus of politicians and economists as a key variable in developing economies. Oil revenue fluctuations are one of the limitations of economic growth and cause the withdrawal of resources from the economic cycle. Their allocation to activities with low productivity and efficiency reduces economic growth. In countries with an environment of low institutional quality, oil revenue fluctuations can encourage rent-seeking activities. This is especially true in less developed countries with a large public sector, inadequate management, and complex and inefficient tax systems. In Iran, due to the relatively large and inefficient public sector, low institutional levels, and rich natural resources, rent-seeking is rather prevalent. According to this discussion, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of oil revenues on tax revenues under conditions of tax rent-seeking. To this end, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) is used to examine the period of 1991-2020. Rent seeking is the competition of individuals and the government for financial privileges. This competition is for subsidies, higher income transfers, and lower taxes. Therefore, the available resources are allocated to rent-seeking instead of productive activities. Among economic variables, oil revenues are a key indicator affecting macroeconomic performance. Until now, there has been no study on the effects of oil revenues on tax revenues under conditions of tax rent-seeking, as one of the country's economic challenges. The aim of the present study is to investigate this issue.

The purpose of this research is to model Iran's economy under conditions of rent-seeking and increased oil revenues. In order to evaluate the effects of oil revenues on tax revenues, the general stochastic dynamic model was applied. The overall structure of the model designed in current research includes five main sectors: households, firms, oil, government, and the central bank. It resulted in 22 equations with 22 unknown variables. The employed data are the seasonal data of Iran’s economy for the period of 1991-2020 provided by the time series bank information of Iranian’s Central Bank and the Iranian Statistical Centre. After linearizing the model equations, the coefficients of the model were calculated using the quantification method. Then, the designed model was run in the Dynare software, and the instantaneous feedback results related to the shock of oil revenues were obtained.

The results indicate that an increase in the oil revenues initially leads to an increase in prices, imports and government's tax revenues, but, later on, due to the increase in the price and the decrease in purchasing power, the motivation of people for tax rent-seeking increases, and part of the tax revenues are not realized. This is consistent with both the theoretical foundations of the economy and the observed evidence in the country. However, the realization of oil revenues reduces the motivation of the government to create a precise tax system, and the government makes less effort to establish optimal tax systems and realize tax revenues, which leads to an increase in the motivation to tax revenues rent-seeking. In other words, tax evasion rises. Therefore, the motivation of households to reduce working hours and rent-seeking from the government's tax revenues increases. A part of the tax revenues, enters the household budget rather than the government budget, and the force labour devotes part of its productive working hours to non-productive work (rent-seeking).

Conclusions and policy implications: 

Furthermore, an increase in the oil revenues leads to decreased government's tax revenues under conditions of tax rent-seeking. Consequently, households are motivated to reduce the working hours, and rent-seeking from tax revenues increases. In Iran's economy, the tax system has been reformed over the past years, but, due to structural problems that are rooted in economic, cultural and political factors, the tax system is not efficient. A part of the tax revenues is included in the household budget instead of the government budget. Since, the reduction of rent-seeking leads to the increase of productive activities, it is suggested that economic policy makers formulate tax systems so as to limit the space for earning rent in the country. Through increasing productive activities, reducing transaction costs, improving productivity, increasing investment, and ensuring greater transparency and stability of monetary and financial policies, the government can play an important role in the institutional quality of the society and thus reduce the tendency of people for rent-seeking.

The purpose of this article is to analyze the technical meta-analysis of poverty rates Misery index and economic growth on per capita health expenditures in low- and middle-income groups in Iran. The research method is ARDL methodology, which simultaneously estimates the long-term and short-term relationships between explanatory variables of the model. The results of the estimation of the model using the autocorrelation method with distributed lag (ARDL) showed that there was a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables of the model and it was found that the coefficient of the logarithm of economic growth (EG) is statistically significant and indicates that economic growth It has a positive effect on the health index, but the coefficient of the logarithm of the misery index variable (MI (-1)) has the desired negative sign and is statistically significant. That is, the misery index in the previous years has a negative and significant effect on the per capita misery of the following years. Also, the coefficient of the logarithm of the misery index variable (misery index with two breaks) MI (-2))) is statistically significant but has the intended sign and indicates that the misery index of the previous two periods has a negative effect on the health leaders. . Therefore, it can be concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables of the observed pattern. In the long term, the variables of economic growth and misery index are statistically significant and have an impact on the health function per capita.

The present study deals with redesigning the design of the financial stability model in order to respond to the return of Islamic banking to the shock of the value of the national currency for the years 1400-1373. For this purpose, using the structural vector autoregression model (SVAR), which are known as impulse models; The response of Islamic banking returns to the shocks of national currency value, financial stability, inflation and inflation were investigated. According to the results, the response coefficient of the yield impulses of cooperative banking contracts to oil revenues, weakening of the value of the national currency and inflation is negative and equal to 0.01, 0.25 and 0.06. Also, the response of financial development momentum coefficient to the yield of cooperative banking contracts is positive and equal to 0.32. The increase in oil and foreign exchange revenues of the central bank causes an increase in the monetary base of the country, and the volume of liquidity also increases, and therefore inflation will also increase. The expectation of inflation in the future period and uncertainty about the inflation rate are also effective in fueling the intensity of inflation, and as uncertainty increases, the amount of investment in the production sector decreases and the production situation and the yield of contracts also worsen. On the other hand, the artificial pricing of the exchange rate in the years before thein order to reduce the pressure of the foreign exchange market, it is suggested that the annual off

Tax is the main and most stable financial source of the government and plays an important role in increasing the government's income. The level of realization of tax revenues depends on the economic structure of the country. In recent years, with the outrages rise of prices and the formation of high inflation in the country, people are reluctant to pay taxes and as a result motivation of rent-seeking from the government's tax revenues has enhanced. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of inflation on rent-seeking from tax revenues in Iran's economy. To achieve this goal, a new Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model has been purposed which considered the realities of Iran's economy and involved sectors of household, business, oil, government and central bank during period of 1991-2020. After extracting the equations of economic agents, the model has been processed in Dynare software. The simulated results indicate that the increase in prices has led to an increase in rent-seeking from the government's tax revenues which is consistent with the theoretical foundations of the economy and the reality observed in the country. Since the increase in rent-seeking from tax revenues leads to the reduction of public resources of the government budget, budget deficit, and a reduction in non-oil production and employment in the country, therefore, it is suggested that the country's economic policies should be implemented in order to control prices and limit the space for rent-seeking.

Considering the most important industry and the high volume of economic activities of the service sector and the role of monetary policy in these two sectors, as well as due to the activity of monetary Shocks in periods of recession and periods of prosperity.The main goal of this research is to examine and test the asymmetric effects of Monetary Policy on the added value created by services, industries, and mines in selected oil exporting countries. For this purpose, the generalized moments method (Panel GMM) has been applied for the time period from 2002 to 2020. The results obtained do not confirm the existence of an asymmetry in positive and negative impulses in the industries and mining sector, whilst the existence of positive and negative impulses was found to have an insignificant effect on the growth of the added value of this sector. On the other hand, the existence of asymmetry in positive and negative impulses in the service sector was confirmed, whilst, the effect of negative impulse on the reduction of the value-added growth of the service sector was found to be greater than the effect of positive impulse in increasing the value-added growth of the service sector. In effect, the industry sector of the countries understudy performs poorly in response to asymmetric policies, but the service sector shows a better response to positive and negative impulses due to its expansion in these countries.

Tehran metropolis is not an exception to this rule and like many municipalities in the country in the past years and today, it is dependent on unstable incomes, and due to the ever-increasing development and expansion of Tehran metropolis, the duties of the mayors are increasing and they need to earn more income. But the lack of a comprehensive approach to the revenue sources of the municipalities in the form of the macroeconomic system of the country, case changes and interventions, the implementation of the self-reliance and self-sufficiency policy of the municipalities, has put the revenue department of Tehran municipality in an unstable situation, the limitation of the legal and reasonable areas of earning the municipality's income has led to The revenue sector of the municipality is heavily dependent on urban constructions and the sale of excess density. In such a way that the continuation of this situation will have adverse effects and consequences and social, cultural and infrastructure costs for the city of Tehran and urban management.

The current research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive and analytical in terms of method. According to the available data in this research, the library method and reliable reference sources were used. The data collection tool is a questionnaire in the form of a Likert scale. In this research, the dimensions and number of indicators have been used to analyze the findings (Table 1). The statistical population in this research is 384 specialists and experts in the municipalities of Tehran metropolis, using a simple random sampling method. In this regard, structural equations and multi-criteria decision making (cocoso) were used to analyze the findings. Discussion and research findings In this regard, according to the multiplicity of independent variables, which include five independent variables of economic policy, social investment, information and communication technology, physical-environmental, managerial-institutional and the dependent variable of sustainable urban income. The estimation of the coefficients of the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable has been measured and evaluated. In this regard, in order to confirm and reject the hypotheses of the research, the estimation of the path between the variables has been stated and the coefficients of the relationships between the variables have been used in the Regression Weights output table. Data analysis shows the fact that if the critical coefficient is greater than 1.96, the relationship between two variables is significant with 95% confidence. Also, p-value can be used instead of the critical coefficient to determine the significance of the relationship if the p-value of the test is smaller than 0.05. The relationship between the two variables is significant, according to these cases, all hypotheses have been confirmed. Conclusion and suggestions One of the important issues for municipalities is to earn stable income to cover the cost of urban services. Currently, the excessive reliance of many municipalities on unstable incomes has made them face financial problems. Paying attention to sustainable income can be suitable in various economic, social, physical, environmental, etc. dimensions in metropolitan cities to achieve optimal and sustainable development. Stable income should be sustainable in such a way that it does not reduce urban services in cities and does not reduce their quality of life. The purpose of this research is to analyze and explain the redefinition of sustainable income in the municipalities of Tehran metropolis. Structural equations and multi-criteria decision-making have been used to examine the findings. The research results based on structural equations show that sustainable urban income is caused by a set of factors such as physical-environmental, information and communication technology, managerial-institutional, social investment, economic policy; Next is the economic policy, each of these factors has a favorable effect in redefining sustainable urban income. Among the mentioned factors, economic policy has taken a more prominent role in redefining urban income. In addition, the measurement and evaluation of absolute and comparative fit indicators such as; Chi-square, CMIN, SRMR, CFI, IFI, NFI in the research model show that the model has a good fit. On the other hand, the results of multi-criteria decision makers show that indicators such as revision of municipal laws are in the first place with a score of 1.942, which shows its importance compared to other indicators. Therefore, with the limitation of the legal fields, the increase in the dependence of the municipalities' income on urban constructions and sales has increased, and the resulting consequences will increase the social, cultural, physical, etc. costs for the Tehran Metropolitan Municipality and its urban managers. The second index is the smartening of urban infrastructures (implementation of smart urban growth policies), which according to the cocoso method has a score of 1.85 and is in the second place. If this index is ignored, it will multiply the costs of the Tehran metropolis municipality. Finally, the third important indicator in the field of redefining sustainable income is the proper use of public revenue tools (such as sales tax and income tax share, real estate tax, etc.) have

In this study, we seek to investigate the effect of financial stability and fluctuations in the value of the national currency on the efficiency of Islamic banking in recession and boom regimes. For this purpose, the effect of study variables during the period of 1373 to 1400 is investigated by using the rotation model and Markov switching regime change. The estimation results of the model show that the coefficient of financial development is positive in the prosperity regime. The coefficients of the variables of weakening the value of the national currency in both recession and boom regimes, liquidity and global financial and oil crises have also had a negative impact on the yield of bank contracts in the recession regime. The artificial pricing of the exchange rate in the years before the crisis and preventing its adjustment according to economic conditions is one of the main reasons for the recent fluctuations in the value of the national currency. Thus, as the growth of the exchange rate has increased, the policy makers have tried to control the growth of the exchange rate and prevent its increase by reacting more to it. Meanwhile, the reaction to exchange rate deviations has led to a further weakening of the value of the national currency. As the fluctuations in the value of the national currency increase, the amount of investment in the production sector has decreased and the production situation and the efficiency of the contracts have also worsened.

Fintech affects banks' risk management, and banks tend to improve the level of Fintech in their financial system by increasing risks; Liquidity, credit and systemic risks are the most important risks identified in the banking industry, but what causes the collapse of the entire banking system; Systemic risk is caused by the nature of the spread of this risk from one bank to other banks. Systemic risk occurs when the instability of one financial institution spreads to others, potentially causing a domino effect that can lead to broader economic effects. Identifying systemic risk is very important for monetary and financial supervisory organizations. The deployment and development of fintech has significantly affected banking systems. Increased systemic risk can hinder support for sustainable global development, especially in emerging economies. There are several indicators to calculate this risk; Among these indicators, we can refer to conditional value at risk (CoVaR), TENET (developed CoVaR model), final expected deficit (MES), systemic expected deficit (SES), systemic risk (SRISK), epidemic models (SIR). The results of the conducted research indicate the high level of systemic risk in Iran; Also, according to research, the amount of this risk is higher in state banks than in private banks. It should be noted that all three categories of intra-company, extra-company variables and diversification of bank income and assets (bank portfolio management) have a significant effect on systemic risk; This indicates the complexity of the dimensions of the formation of this type of risk.

The main goal of this research is to examine and test the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on the production of Services. For this purpose, hidden cointegration analysis and Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach in Iran's economy have been used in the period from 1353 to1399.Hodrick Prescott filter was used to extract the positive and negative impulses of the liquidity variable. Then, the effects of positive and negative impulses of the variables were investigated separately on the positive and negative impulses of the production of this sector with latent cointegration analysis. In the last step, the long-term relationship between the variables is checked and the long-term coefficients are calculated using the auto-regression model approach with non-linear distribution intervals and the bounds test. The results showed that there is a hidden co-accumulation between the time series of M2 and production in the industrial sector.The results showed that there is a hidden cointegration between the time series of M2 and production in the Services sector. So that the positive components of the M2 and production in this sector have a long-term relationship with each other, as well as their negative components. Also, the effect of the positive shocks of M2 is greater than the negative shocks of this variable. Therefore, the existence of asymmetry in monetary policy was confirmed.

 Credit risk assessment is one of the most challenging issues in the banking sector. The main problem is the correct modeling of this type of risk. Variety of variables affecting credit risk and The lack of a specific model is one of the most important reasons for the failure of traditional models. Based on this, the aim of this research is to model the credit risk of Tejarat Bank in different economic regimes.

 The time period of the research is (2017-2021) and it has been selected from among 105 thousand customers of Tejarat Bank. information on indicators affecting credit risk was entered into BMA, TVP-DMA and TVP-DMS models. After estimating the model, 8 main variables were identified.

 the effect of non-fragile variables on the credit risk in the Markov switching model was analyzed. most of the variables, have a negative and significant effect on the level of credit risk, and by moving from high prosperity to deep recession, the impact of variables on credit risk has increased.

Originality / Value: 

The results showed that the optimal credit risk model is different in each bank. Based on this, an optimized model was designed Only for credit risk in Tejarat Bank based on Bayesian averaging patterns. Credit risk in the state of economic recession has a higher sensitivity to its explanatory variables.Also, based on the results, it was determined that indicators related to fintech have a significant effect on the level of credit risk in Tejarat Bank.

The main goal of this research is to examine and test the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on the production of industries and mines. For this purpose, hidden cointegration analysis and Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach in Iran's economy have been used in the period from 1353 to1399.Hodrick Prescott filter was used to extract the positive and negative impulses of the liquidity variable. Then, the effects of positive and negative impulses of the variables were investigated separately on the positive and negative impulses of the production of this sector with latent cointegration analysis. In the last step, the long-term relationship between the variables is checked and the long-term coefficients are calculated using the auto-regression model approach with non-linear distribution intervals and the bounds test. The results showed that there is a hidden co-accumulation between the time series of M_2 and production in the industrial sector.The results showed that there is a hidden cointegration between the time series of M_2 and production in the industrial sector. So that the positive components of the M_2 and production in this sector have a long-term relationship with each other, as well as their negative components. Also, the effect of the positive shocks of M2 is greater than the negative shocks of this variable. Therefore, the existence of asymmetry in monetary policy was confirmed.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate and identify the factors affecting the exchange cost of the stone sector. For this purpose, while examining the literature, the factors affecting the exchange cost of the stone sector in Iran were calculated and then, using the Delphi method, the impact of the calculated factors was investigated. The members of the Delphi panel included 11 activists and experts active in the private and public sectors who had sufficient expertise and experience in the field of stone. In the first stage, 13 items from the experimental literature were provided to the panel members within the framework of the designed questionnaire, and the analysis of the results of the questionnaires in this stage emphasizes removing one of the existing factors and adding 4 new factors to the questionnaire. In this study, Kendall coefficient criterion has been used as an indicator to examine the consensus in the questionnaires and based on this criterion, to achieve the result, three stages of questionnaire distribution and survey of panel members have been done. The research results emphasize the impact of institutional factors on the cost of exchanging stone in the country. Also, according to the elites of the rule of law and the implementation of contracts, barriers to entry of foreign investors and the size of the government are the most important factors affecting the cost of exchanging stone in the country, respectively.

Governments play a colorful role in the capital market as a major observer and policymaker in determining the factors affecting stock returns. The higher the level of government involvement in the economy, is twofold, because these countries have irregular financial markets and changes in government policies can cause macroeconomic variables and the financial markets of these countries to face many problems. In recent years, the biggest impact, whether official or unofficial, on the capital market has been due to economic policies and related uncertainties. In this regard, in this study, the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the Iranian stock market during the period 1370 to 1399 has been investigated. For this purpose, data from Iran Statistics Center, Program and Budget Organization and Central Bank were used and data analysis was done using VAR vector autoregression model and EVIEWS software. There has been a significant uncertainty of economic policies on the Iranian stock market due to unexpected and unforeseen changes and political shocks during the period under review.

The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of political economy of oil on the income structure of the municipality of Tehran. In order to achieve the research objective, deductive strategy based on quantitative method was used. The statistical population of the study consisted of experts and scientifi c -executive elites corresponding to the title of the research, and using systematic sampling method based on sampling logic, 50 people were selected for the sample. The research indicators were categorized into 4 groups (political economy of oil, political economy of space, spatial developments of city and municipality’s income). As an effect and dependent variable, the urban space structure of Tehran is influenced by independent variables such as political economy of oil, political economy of space and urban income. Smart PLS was used to analyze the data. The results of data analysis showed that among the items explaining the political economy of oil, the items including growth and capital accumulation as well as rent seeking had maximum realization. Also, dominant production method and globalization and economic restructuring were the main priorities in the political economy of space. Among the influential components related to urban income, except for lack of consistency of duties and responsibilities of municipality with financing resources which had minimal realization, other components such as sustainable incomes, taxes and local duties, state assistance share, access to resources of private sector and financial and capital markets, and reform of laws resulting in sustainable income for municipality had the highest impact and effect which should be paid more attention in redefining the income sources for Municipality of Tehran.

The present study was conducted to examine the effect of banking stability on banking system efficiency in Iran's economy by using the Markov switching econometric model during 1984 - 2019. Results indicated a decline in foreign exchange earnings resulting from negative oil shocks to Iran's economy, which led to lower banking system efficiency of the Iranian economy due to exchange rate volatility and higher credit risk. Finally, some issues have led to the revenue instability of Iranian banks. The issues are as follows: high risk of banking activity (credit risk) and its impact on other financial and monetary sectors, high cost and complexity of the lending process, high cost of loans and low funding sources, bad debts, and failure to achieve goals of facilities, disrupted monetary and banking systems, low banking system efficiency, lack of optimal allocation of financial sources to essential sectors, violation of depositors' rights, mistrust of economic agents in monetary and banking system, no trust in future, violation of banks' rights by influential persons, and prevention of financial resources entering to production sector of the economy. Instability problems will be solved if the issues mentioned above are solved.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the interrelationships between transportation (rail and air), economic growth and CO2 emissions in Iran during the period 1983-2019 using time series data and simultaneous equations system. The findings show a positive correlation between transport (rail and air) and economic growth, as well as between transport (rail and air) and CO2 emissions. Another finding of this study is that economic growth has a significant effect on increasing CO2 emissions, however increasing CO2 emissions has no effect on economic growth. Based on the results, the creation and development of infrastructure related to the type of transportation in order to improve the economic growth of the country is proposed.

Protecting the environment and providing solutions to improve the quality of the environment has required countries to conduct studies to study the factors affecting the environment. One of these factors is the financial development of countries, because economists have considered financial development as an important factor influencing environmental preferences, which varies according to business cycles.

The present study uses Markov-Switching method and time series data over the period 1394-1349 (1970- 2015) the effects of financial development using depth financial index, financial development efficiency index (privy) and fundamental financial development index (bank) has studied the environment in the economic periods of the Iranian economy.

In this regard, the economic periods of the Iranian economy are extracted using the Markov-Swichig model and then in the framework of econometric models using ARDL, the effects of recession and boom in the economy. The relationship with financial development on environmental quality has been examined.

The results show that liquidity (financial depth index), in conditions of economic boom and recession, has led to reduction of environmental pollution in the country. Private-sector facilities (financial development efficiency index) have a positive and significant impact on the environment in terms of boom conditions, but under recessionary conditions, private-sector facilities do not have a significant impact on environmental pollution. Finally, the creditworthiness of banks (the underlying indicator of financial development) increases pollution in times of boom, but in a recession has reduced environmental pollution.

In the present study, the economic factors affecting the components of Iran tax revenue in the context of economic sanctions are investigated using the exploratory factor analysis model and the NARDL nonlinear model during the period 1979-2017. To examine tax revenues, personal income tax, corporate income tax and customs income tax were used in the form of three models. According to the results of the exploratory factor analysis model, the first 4 study variables represent sanctions and among the indicators, the price of imported goods and the price of exported goods have the most effect on these factors. In accordance with the estimation results of the NARDL nonlinear model, in the long run, the variables of oil revenue share and sanctions have a significant positive effect on personal tax revenues. Moreover, GDP per capita variable has a significant negative impact on corporate tax revenues in the long run. Finally, in the long run, the effect of variables on customs revenue is theoretically consistent but not statistically significant. Considering the economic conditions of the country at the time of the sanctions, coherent changes are required in the structure and system of the taxes.

In the process of global moving towards sustainable development, consideration of environmental damage caused by the energy sector is essential. Much of the world's pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions is in the form of carbon dioxide generated by burning fossil fuels as a result of expansion of industrial development and transportation. In this study, the relationship between transport, economic growth, and the environment in selected MENA countries over the period 1996-2016 using the Simultaneous Equations System is investigated. The results indicate that despite the positive effect of the environment on GDP growth and transportation, environmental pollution also increases in the process of economic growth and transportation. Also, despite the positive effect of the transportation on economic growth, economic growth increases transport.

In this research, we sought to provide a dynamic model of sustainable development for Tehran and a computer simulation based on the system dynamic approach were employed for the purpose. According to the intended purpose and access to data, a pattern has been developed from two sub-sectors of the economy and society and the environmental pollution. The results of the simulation in the base model indicated that simulation values could predict the actual values of the variables indicating sustainable development in Tehran well and it can be said that if the same trend continues in Tehran, the population of Tehran will reach about 11 million till 2025. On the other hand, the results indicate that despite the calculated GDP growth rate for the city of Tehran, the total revenue of the city will reach from 624 thousand billion Rials in 2008 to 315669 thousand billion Rials and the results also indicated that the emission of Carbon dioxide will reach nearly 100 billion tons per year until 2025 in Tehran, which is very high and adopting appropriate environmental policies seems necessary. On the other hand, the results show that despite the GDP growth rate for the city of Tehran, the total revenue from the city will be from 624 trillion riyals to 315669 trillion rials in 1404 from the beginning of 2008 and the results also showed that the emission of dioxid Carbon will reach nearly 100 billion tons per year in Tehran in 1404, which is high and requires the adoption of appropriate environmental policies.

The purpose of this article is to examine the cooperation between Iran and Qatar in withdrawal of shared reservoirs of South Pars gas field (in Qatar: North Dome) by using game theory. The failure of a credible international agreement in determining the magnitude of the exploitation has led Qatar to become more promising by investing more in its oil and gas industries than Iran; this imbalance has caused a rash and pernicious competition. Following this incident, the main purpose of the paper is to examine the type of communication (cooperative or non-cooperative) through the game theory to achieve an optimal economic strategy for Iran. Results based on non-cooperative game design, solving methods through methods of elimination of dominated strategies (dominate strategies equilibrium), and Nash equilibrium showed that choosing the non-cooperative strategy is optimized for both countries and non-cooperation has more economic benefits for Iran.

The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between budget deficits, inflation and money supply growth rate in Iran as one of the most important subjects in macroeconomics. In many countries, the budget deficit policy is used as one of the tools of financial policy. The relationship between the government budget deficit and the macroeconomic variables is somewhat ambiguous. All data related to inflation, budget deficit and money supply growth rate have been collected from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Iranian Statistical Center. Econometric methods including stability test, White, Johansson and vector regression test (VAR) were used to examine the hypothesis. The results of the present study show a positive and significant relationship between budget deficit, inflation and money supply growth that confirms the hypotheses of the study.

Black economy is considered as a set of activities and economic exchanges, which may be legal or illegal, but cannot be measured and reported. So far, several studies have estimated the size of black economy in the world and Iran, Which represent the increase in black economy in many countries and especially in Iran. But no researches that explain the impact of black economic on the sense of security for the citizens were found. Due to the increase in size of the black economy it is imperative that these effects on people's sense of security must be measured and also for the citizens live in cities and black economy also generally occurs in cities.

Statistical population have been selected all the citizens of fifth district of Tehran, which it’s volume equals 793750. And the sample size was calculated based on the Cochran formula equals 383.97 (400 questionnaire speeded out). For this study questionnaire was developed after extensive literature studies. Creator variables of sense of security were divided to 5 variables: moral security, emotional security, health security, Criminal and financial security. And for moral sense of security, this research has conducted. After the data collection, questionnaire showed satisfactory in reliability and validity. To analyze the data, descriptive statistics (including frequency, percentage and average data) and inferential statistics were used. For inferential statistics after Kolmogorov-Smirnov test normality of the data has showed so one-sample t test was used. Notably, all of the analyses were conducted in SPSS.

the results showed that black economy would not be desirable for moral sense of security in cities. The results of the study can be viewed as a warning sign especially for urban practitioners that immediate plans should be implemented to decrease the size of black economy as soon as possible.

Therefore, suggestions for reducing the size of the black economy in this research were presented.

The present paper examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty with relative price dispersion using monthly data over the period of 1991-2012. In this context, the GARCH technique for modeling and calculatoin of the inflation uncertainty is applied.The results show that the increase in inflation uncertainty increases the dispersion of relative prices. Also, regardless of the positive and negative unexpected inflation, the dispersion of relative prices significantly increases. But, the analysis of both positive and negative unexpected inflation and considering them as part of the equation shows that both are significant at a high level. The positive and the negative effects of unexpected inflation cannot be considered symmetrical. In response to positive unexpected inflation shocks firms change the prices, alternately. Hence, positive inflation unexpectedly increases the dispersion of relative prices. On the other hand, firms against the unexpected negative inflation do not change their prices. So, the negative unexpected inflation reduces the dispersion in relative prices. It also concluded that the inflation variable coefficients are statistically significant at a high level. This means that the positive unexpected inflation increases considerably the dispersion of relative prices.

It is believed that social aspects and institutional components of sustainable development, have a great importance in economic growth process, but it should be considered that this effect on economic growth is indirect. This effect is done through some channels; one of these channels is the direct effect of social capital on financial development. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate mostly one of the obstacles of financial markets development in Iranian Economy. The analyses are done by statistical models, econometrics and hypothesis tests by ARDL approach. The findings indicate that the index of embezzlement, bribery and forging have negative effects on the ratio of credit allocated to private enterprises to total domestic credit in short and long-run. On the other hand, the index of cheque default has a negative effect on the multilateral index of social capital on the ratio of commercial banks domestic assets to the banking system assets.