حسین دلاور

Introduction :

The diminished concentration of U.S. power within the international system and the ascension of emerging powers have decreased the structural pressure of international system on regional powers to limit their presence in other regions. This has accelerated the movement of governments like China towards the areas that are traditionally under the U.S. influence, such as West Asia and Latin America. Since the 1990s, China has established extensive relations with countries in West Asia. The present study aimed to explore the expansion of China–Saudi Arabia relations in light of China’s Look West policy, trying to answer the following questions:  What role does Look West play in China’s foreign policy? And how does Saudi Arabia fit into China’s Look West policy? This research distinguishes itself from existing literature by offering a comprehensive analysis of China’s Look West policy, specifically focusing on the expansion of China’s relations with Saudi Arabia.

The study adopted a descriptive–analytical approach and an explanatory method to elucidate how the structure of the international system influences the behavior of states.

Theoretical Framework:

Neorealism or structural realism was used to enhance the explanatory power in addressing how the structure of the international system influences foreign relations and behavioral priorities of countries. The structure of the international system is regarded as the foremost and pivotal variable in the paradigm of structural realism. This encompasses a specific conception of structure and its related components. First, structural realism considers anarchy as the enduring feature of the international system, which is even immune to shifts in power concentration. Moreover, the distribution of capabilities or the polarity of the system significantly shapes the behavior of states. Therefore, neorealism refers to the distribution of power within the international system as one of the most influential variables in shaping the behavior of states. In this light, the analysis of China’s behavior, as a prominent emerging power, requires the examination of the role of America as a key pole in the international system. For instance, China’s pursuit of Go West strategy, as a competitive policy, is understood as a response to the prevailing polarity within the international system.

Systemic Change in the International System and China’s Look West Policy
The diminished concentration of U.S. power and the ascension of other major powers promise a more diversity in the polarity of the international system, as reinforced and evidenced by the rise of China and the increasing role of Asia in global affairs. This trend has elevated China to the status of the most important emerging power, ushering in a period of systemic change characterized by a shift in polarity within the international order. Over the past decade, this transformation has emerged as one of the most significant and influential determinants shaping the foreign policies of world states. Indeed, it has presented regional powers with increased opportunities to extend their influence into other regions. From this vantage point, China is increasingly inclined towards expanding its presence across various regions worldwide, including the West. This inclination can be captured by the term Look West, denoting a focus on the West in general. In a narrower sense, the West encompasses regions such as the Middle East and notably the Persian Gulf. Based on the Look West policy, rebalancing China’s foreign policy during the period of systemic change within the international system can be attributed to the following reasons:Intensification of Strategic Competition with the U.S. in China’s Periphery The U.S. efforts to increase its presence in China’s periphery have prompted China to shift its focus to other regions of the world, particularly West Asia, aiming to establish a strategic space and foothold. China perceives that America is withdrawing from certain regions of the world, which is likely to diminish the U.S. involvement and influence.

China’s Energy Needs:

The change in the polarity of the international system has led to changes in perspectives regarding global energy supply. This shift has opened up opportunities for China to play a more active role in energy supply centers worldwide, particularly in the Middle East. One significant aspect of China’s presence in the Middle East is the strengthening of bilateral relations with countries in the region, notably with the member states of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, such as Saudi Arabia.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative:

The changes within the international system have influenced the foreign policy of world states, paving the way for the enhancement of relations between different states, particularly with those in the Global South. In this context, China, with a longstanding history of fostering unique patterns in its relations with southern countries, has identified an opportune environment for launching new initiatives, foremost among them being the One Belt, One Road or Belt and Road Initiative (also referred to as the New Silk Road). Challenges of China’s Look West Policy Competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, Saudi Arabia has been wary of Iran and its regional policies. It is thus not surprising that China’s close relationship with Iran would raise concerns in Saudi Arabia. As the influence of the U.S. diminishes in the region, China finds itself with increased opportunities to play a significant role in regulating relations between the Persian Gulf states. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia have welcomed China’s mediation efforts to mitigate their differences, which culminated in the 2023 Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore relations and reduce tensions.

The United States of America:

Currently, America continues to wield considerable influence in West Asia. Despite the tensions between Washington and Riyadh, America remains Saudi Arabia’s most crucial partner, which in turn gets Washington to exert pressure on Riyadh to deter any significant expansion of China–Saudi relations.

The present study examined the development and expansion of relations between China and Saudi Arabia within the context of China’s Look West or Go West strategy. The research findings suggested that Look West policy has increasingly become an integral strategy of China’s foreign policy, driven by dynamics of power distribution within the international system, emerging opportunities in energy resource markets, efforts to counteract the U.S. influence, and initiatives such as the New Silk Road. Moreover, Saudi Arabia occupies a pivotal position within China’s Look West paradigm. The structure of the international system and the post-Cold War distribution of power (polarity) are pivotal factors shaping China’s approach to the Middle East. A competitive aspect of China’s policy, Look West or Go West strategy involves strengthening ties with countries geographically situated to the West. This strategy serves as a means to break free from the strategic deadlock with the U.S. in East Asia. Nevertheless, China’s overarching objective extends beyond this; it seeks to replace the U.S. and increase its presence in other regions, thereby diminishing American influence while broadening its own sphere of influence. China pursues this goal by continually increasing its economic interactions with the Middle East, fostering amicable relations with all countries therein, and avoiding policies that directly challenge American interests in the Middle East.

The Solomon Islands are a group of hundreds of islands east of Papua New Guinea in the South Pacific Ocean. As the US and its allies continue their provocative actions against China regarding Taiwan, China clarified the scale and scope of its geostrategic ambitions in the Pacific Islands in the first half of 2022. The first indication was the disclosure of the draft of a secret security treaty between China and the Solomon Islands in March. This descriptive-analytical study aims to discuss the nature of this security agreement and its effect on the power of China in the island chain. The main research questions were as follows: 1- What is the position of China’s power projection strategy in the island chain in the foreign policy of China? and 2- What is the role of the Solomon Islands in this strategy? The study findings generally suggested that China is attempting to broaden its sphere of influence over the "island chain" in order to change the balance of power against the superior pole. In addition, the strategic importance of the Solomon Islands to China lies in its geographical location as the third island chain.

Problem Statement:

 The Chinese authorities’ understanding of the post-Cold War international conditions led to the adoption of a behavioral pattern in order to reduce the power gap, while avoiding international sensitivities about China. Therefore, China has pursued two agendas in the domestic and global spheres to respond to the emerging requirements. This has led scholars to debate the consequences of this balancing model for the decision-making circles of the world states, especially for the US and the international order.

The present article intended to analyze the prospect of change in the contemporary international order (structural order) by examining whether new poles are emerging in the current international order or not.

The Main Question:

 What are the consequences and challenges of China’s behavioral pattern for the United States and the structural international order?

Research Hypothesis:

 This research is based on the hypothesis that China’s behavioral pattern presents complex challenges to the US general policy towards China. This points to the uncertainties in predicting the consequences of China’s rise, in which policymakers face challenges in choosing between containment or engagement policy. China’s behavioral pattern is also seen as a reason for changing the structure of the international system and shaping the China–US bipolar order. In this respect, the following two points were suggested and discussed. First, the power gap between China and the United States will become almost equal, resulting in a dual superpower scenario where the United States will lose its superiority over China. Second, the strategic competition between China and the US will be very different from the confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union. China and the US will continue to cooperate in various fields (e.g., economy), while they may have conflicts in political and military domains.

 The present research used the historical research method with a descriptive–analytical and explanatory approach.

Theoretical Framework:

 This study used defensive structural realism as its theoretical framework in order to analyze the systemic characteristics of the international order, including the distribution and increase of power, and explain their effects on the behavioral priorities of countries. The structure of the international system is considered as the most important variable in the paradigm of structural realism.Kenneth Waltz’s theory of international politics offers a clear example of defensive structural realism. The present article contends that Waltz’s perspective should be taken seriously not only because it is the most accurate or realistic theory, but because it provides useful categories for comprehending reality. For instance, his concept of polarity determination helps to shape the behavioral priorities of countries and structural order of power distribution among units, which can be measured and typically changes in response to shifts in power among major states. Additionally, his focus on some kind of cooperation in the discussion on balance of power is also a valuable analytical category.

Article Text:

 Due to the post-Cold War international conditions, China has adopted a macro model of balancing, at domestic and global levels, in its strategic relationships with the US. Domestically, China has focused on building up its internal capabilities, while on the global stage it has pursued soft balancing. China’s balancing strategy in the unipolar world order is a reasonable and pragmatic response to its interests, capabilities, and strategic environment. Like any other government, China seeks to maximize its benefits and minimize losses in the field of foreign relations. Showing a keen awareness of the evolving international system, China has adeptly seized opportunities and confronted challenges. However, this behavioral pattern has important consequences and challenges for the international order, particularly for the US as the dominant pole.The balancing strategy pursued by China has generated complex conditions for decision-makers across the international system, particularly in the US as the superpower. Its most significant impact has been on the mentality of elites and their interpretation of the new realities, which has prompted a need to reassess American foreign policy.China’s behavioral pattern has enabled it to capitalize on broad opportunities and emerge as a decisive player in international politics, with its ongoing quest for power likely to have significant implications for the future of international politics. However, this development is closely tied to America’s position as the dominant pole of the international order, making the strategic relations between the two countries increasingly intertwined. As a result, managing these relations has become the most pressing issue in international politics, with stability and crisis in the global order at stake. As such, analyzing the pattern underlying China’s behavior and its relations with the US is critical for understanding the changing international order and its future trajectory.

China is neither an ally nor a partner of the US and does not feel obligated to align its policies with those of America. However, unlike the Soviet Union, China does not adopt an explicitly adversarial stance towards the US. This has created challenges and consequences for the overall US policy towards China, and introduced uncertainties that pose significant challenges for policymakers in choosing between a policy of containment or engagement. An examination of the challenges posed by China’s behavioral pattern suggests that a combination of containment and engagement policies is more effective in serving American interests when dealing with China. While addressing the concerns of proponents of containment, the hybrid policy also attempts to avoid the pitfalls of mutual hostility, which is a major concern of supporters of engagement. This policy reflects the uncertainty in Washington about China’s future goals and capabilities. However, if China were to pursue regional hegemony or launch an attack on Taiwan, the hybrid policy could shift towards containment. Conversely, if China were to democratize and cooperate, this containment-plus-engagement policy could be replaced by a more cooperative relationship between the two countries.

The international order has never been stable and continuous, and throughout history international relations have always been subject to change, the most important change of which took place in the late twentieth century.Influenced by this change, one of the most important issues that has led scholars to theorize has been the discussion of the type of international order and its future perspective.in this direction, there will be consequences for countries like Iran in the international arena. Accordingly, the author summarizes the purpose of the article in examining and explaining the three areas of " picture of the current situation of international order ", "future trends" and "its impact on Iran". The research method is descriptive-analytical and the general conclusion shows that the power distribution situation has become unipolar since the collapse of the Soviet Union.This situation continues today.But trends show that China is following the United States and competing with it.As a result,the international system will move out of the status quo and into the period of establishing a new international order led by the United States and China;Regarding the impact of this situation on countries such as Iran, the need for a strategic alliance with one of the great powers is emphasized.

China is one of the most important emerging powers that has brought the international order into a period of systemic change, i.e. polarity change. In this way, during the last years, China has followed an active role in multilateral international institutions; Because international institutions, as a constituent part of the international order, are very important for changing the international order. One of the mysteries of the institutional behavior of this country has been its different strategies in order to benefit from different institutions.In this article, the author has tried to explain China's strategic attitude and behavior towards various international institutions. The main question in front of the article is what strategies China has used in different institutions to challenge the international order led by the United States? The findings of the research show that China, as one of the dissatisfied powers of some elements of the order, has relied on multilateral institutions and "inclusive" and "exclusive" institutional balancing strategies to challenge the international structural order. The research method of the article is also a historical method with a descriptive-analytical approach. Collecting the data and information required for the research has also been done by reading documents –libraries in which are used books, articles, documents and internet resources.

China actively participated in the BRICS initiative in recent years. China uses the BRICS membership to forge political-economic power and present its dissatisfaction with the distribution of power in international politics. This paper examines the process of China-led BRICS operation to redistribute power under certain conditions. The authors use a historical method and descriptive-analytical approach based on library resources to investigate the roots and logic of China's strategy in initiatives such as the BRICS in a US-dominated world. The findings show that China has pursued a Grand-pattern of balancing at the domestic and foreign levels; therefore, active participation in initiatives such as BRICS represents an aspect of external balance of the Chinese grand  pattern To redistribute power through a soft balance strategy. The authors further identify the major soft balancing tactics that China employs through the BRICS, including  Economic diplomacy .

One of the distinguishing features of the current international situation is the growth of China as a great power. The growing power of China for protecting of security interests is directly tied to the US international position; As a result, China's strategic engagement with the US is one of the issues that is essential to understand the future state of international order. This article examines China's pattern of behavior toward the US under the unipolar order system. Hence, the question that the authors have tried to answer with a descriptive-analytical approach is that what pattern governs China's foreign policy to advance its interests, and strategic interactions with the US in the current international order? Findings show that due to the necessity of entangling polarity, economic factor and threat perception, China has adopted a dual pattern of behavior, like the domestic capabilities and external soft balance, in order to advance its strategic interests and interactions with the US. The first concept refers to the continuation of economic efforts along with increasing military capabilities to increase China's relative power. In the second concept, China's internationally balanced behavior toward the United States is considered. This is mostly done through multilateral institutions and economic diplomacy.

This article discusses the emergence and evolution of Shanghai Cooperation Organization which is potentially a balancing measure in reaction to the Unilateralism of the United States. Severe balancing in Unipolar systems is considered to be a highly dangerous problem. Therefore, governments mostly seek to form a softer balance. In this respect, Shanghai Cooperation Organization is seen as a tool utilized by Russia ( with the cooperation of China) to bring balance against the United States. Moreover, this paper evaluates the dual game of Russia regarding Iran permanent membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Actually, the proposal of Iran`s permanent membership in SCO is attributed to Russia's concern with regard to Iran's cooperation with the  United states. This is all due to the fact that if Islamic Republic can develop a constructive relationship based on mutual respect with the western countries, Russia will have to devote more attention to the Interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran.