فهرست مطالب دکترحسین بیورانی

The prevalence of high-dimensional datasets has driven increased utilization of the penalized likelihood methods. However, when the number of observations is relatively few compared to the number of covariates, each observation can tremendously influence model selection and inference. Therefore, identifying and assessing influential observations is vital in penalized methods. This article reviews measures of influence for detecting influential observations in high-dimensional lasso regression and has recently been introduced. Then, these measures under the elastic net method, which combines removing from lasso and reducing the ridge coefficients to improve the model predictions, are investigated. Through simulation and real datasets, illustrate that introduced influence measures effectively identify influential observations and can help reveal otherwise hidden relationships in the data.

This paper suggests Liu-type shrinkage estimators in linear regression model in the presence of multicollinearity under subspace information. The performance of the proposed estimators is compared to Liu-type estimator in terms of their relative efficiency via a Monte Carlo simulation study and a real data set. The results reveal that the proposed estimators outperform better than the Liu-type estimator.

The present study aims to provide a model for tourist engagement with emphasis on its antecedents and consequences. The research method is applied In terms of purpose and in terms of collecting research data descriptive of type survey. Statistical population of research Includes Iranian tourists in 2019 and 2020 in least Once the experience of traveling abroad (Turkey, Malaysia, Dubai, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan) Have. Using available sampling method, 450 people were selected for the study. To collect research data from Researcher-maden questionnaire. Based on theoretical foundations and experimental background related used. Statistical analysis is done in two section of descriptive statistics and inferential statistics with the method of path analysis and structural modeling in SPSS and Amos software. The results showed that the antecedents of tourist engagement Includes destination identity, tourist experience and perceived image They had a positive and significant effect on tourist fascination, Consequences of tourist engagement include tourist trust, tourist loyalty, co-creation, content production and word of mouth is Which have a positive and significant effect on tourist fascination.

Wind speed probabilistic distributions are one of the main wind characteristics for the evaluation of wind energy potential in a specific region.  In this paper, 3-parameter Log-Logistic distribution is introduced and it compared with six used statistical models for the modeling the actual wind speed data reported of Tabriz and Orumiyeh stations in Iran. The maximum likelihood estimators method via Nelder–Mead algorithm is utilized for estimating the model parameters. The flexibility of proposed distributions is measured according to the coefficient of determination, Chi-square test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and root mean square error criterion. Results of the analysis show that 3-parameter Log-Logistic distribution provides the best fit to model the annual and seasonal wind speed data in Orumiyeh station and except summer season for Tabriz station. Also, wind power density error is estimated for the proposed different distributions.

Recently, it has been observed that a new method for generating continuous distributions, T - X family, can be quite effectively used to analyze the data in one dimension. The aim of this study is to generalize this method to two dimensional space so that the marginals would have T - X distributions. So, several examples and properties of this family have been presented. As an application, a special distribution of this family, called bivariate Weibull-Rayleigh-Rayleigh, is fitted to a data set and is shown to have a better fit.

The exponential distribution is a popular model in applications to real data. We propose a new extension of this distribution, called the Lomax-exponential distribution, which presents greater flexibility to the model. Also there is a simple relation between the Lomax-exponential distribution and the Lomax distribution. Results for moment, limit behavior, hazard function, Shannon entropy and order statistic are provided. To estimate the model parameters, the method of maximum likelihood and Bayse estimations are proposed. Two data sets are used to illustrate the applicability of the Lomax-exponential distribution.

Customer satisfaction in today's business environment has gained importance. Many companies to increase profits and customer satisfaction are focused on customer value. Customer relationship Management (CRM) is tools to enhance customer relationships has emerged as the principal competing companies. Successful customer relationship management in companies start from identifying customer value beacuse Customer value provides important information for the development and management. Techniques such as data mining has led to the development of customer relationship management in new competition areas so that companies can be profitable in business competition. Through data mining -the discovery of hidden knowledge database- organizations can identify valuable customer and predict their future behavior and take useful and knowledge-based decisions. The purpose of this research is to gain the effective features to select valuable customer that can classify customers based on population characteristics and other variables relating to transactions in classes very low profit, low profit, high profit and very high profit. In this study the influence of demographic characteristics including age, education and job level also affect the degree of branch, bank branch location and number of transactions on customer value will be checked. Dependent variable in this research is customer value that is classified into four categories. Statistical population is the all customers have an active checking account with Bank Saderat Iran in Tabriz city. To review the case, the CHAID decision tree data mining algorithms were used.Results showed that the variables age, education level of customer and bank branches have no significant effect on customer value and the number of customer transactions with bank has most effective in identifying the class of customer.

In this paper, the impact of mental pressure and its parameters on the performance efficiency of the staff in Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, has been explored. In order to assess the dependent and independent variables of mental pressure, the researchers have used mental pressure questionnaire as well as the labor force efficiency questionnaire. The present research was conducted in the spring of 2012. Regarding the purpose, this study assumed an applied approach to find solution for the existing problems in the organization on the basis of the findings of this research. In addition, this research is considered to be of correlation – descriptive nature. The research population consists of all 776 staff members in Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, from among whom 183 participants were included in the research sample. The study used descriptive statistics for data collection, and parametric and non-parametric analysis for data analysis. The results indicated that mental pressure and its components have a significant impact on the efficiency of labor force in Islamic Azad University, Tabriz.

In this paper using descriptive and inferential statistics we tried to analyze and assess the impact of climate elements and air pollutants in Sanandaj. on the input rate of asthma and mortality we. Studied populations as the number of people admitted to the hospitals in 8-year period (2001-2008) for asthma and the number of deaths during the five-year period (2004-2008) for heart failure disease in the city of Sanandaj. Data on pollutants were supplied from the Environment Department (2008) and data on climateelements (2001-2008) were collected from the Meteorological organization of Sanandaj city. The results show that considering the weather elements in the model، each unit increase in average of minimum temperature of the elements، the average maximum relative humidity and prevailing wind speed woud cause increase in heart failure deaths، respectively، at 0. 16 and 0. 06. With of each unit increase in mean minimum temperature and maximum wind speed، 0. 211 death units were increased while 0. 360 units were decreased. So despite the pollutants per unit of temperature in the region 0. 051 units regardless of the model were more or less the impact of mortality. Without entering pollutants in the model، the effectof average minimum relative humidity، average relative humidity، average wind speed and prevailing wind speed has respectively 0. 160، -0. 141، -0. 632 and 0. 198 values on the asthma admissions. By entering pollutants had climatic elements of the combined model، none of the elements and pollutants impacted on hospital admissions for asthma. MI mortality was significant in both sexes. The relationship between both sexes and admissions and ages was 0-20 and 21-40 and significant. In other words، unlike heart failure disease، the rate of asthma at the ages of less than 40 years was seen. In general، heart failure and asthma were respectively not dependent on gender and age.

The aim of the present research is to design the algorithm of the cost management of a business entity in Tabriz Iran Khodro Industrial Group, and it involves the integration of the two methods of target based costing and value engineering. To do so, first a sample including 47 managers and specialists of Tabriz Iran Khodro Company were selected and a questionnaire was distributed among them. To test the hypotheses of the research, we used average population and ANOVA test. The results of the research showed that profit management and the type of relationship with materials and machinery suppliers for Tabriz Iran Khodro Company have a meaningful relationship with cost management including target costing and value engineering. But customer satisfaction and designing new products didnt have a meaningful relationship with cost management. Also, the results showed that regarding the respondent's viewpoints, using cost management technique cannot be a suitable alternative for the traditional costing system in Tabriz Iran Khodro Company. Finally, the research results showed that regarding the respondent's viewpoints, using cost management technique is not considered to be a necessity in Tabriz Iran Khodro Industrial Group.

This paper is devoted to computing the sample size of binomial distribution with Bayesian approach. The quadratic loss function is considered and three criterions are applied to obtain p-tolerance regions with the lowest posterior loss. These criterions are: average length, average coverage and worst outcome.

Evaluation of utility of a platform investment in uncertain status is based on its risk and return values. In other words, awareness from risk of companies, especially the systematic risk can play an important role in decision-making. The main purpose of this research is study of effects of volatility in cash flows on systematic risk. In this study the effect of volatility in cash flows related to each of the sections of Cash Flow Statements (accounting standards of Iran) on systematic risk of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange has been studied. The aim of this research is Applied Research and research method is causal or post facto method. In this study, financial information of 73 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2004 to 2008 were investigated. In order to test the hypotheses, statistical techniques of correlation and regression analysis and test of significance for the Pearson model, T and F has been used.The results show that volatility in cash flows from operating activities, volatility in cash flows related to income tax, volatility in cash flows from investment activities and volatility in cash flows from financing activities have positive effect on systematic risk, while volatility in cash flows related to investments returns and interest and dividend paid for financing activities has no impact on systematic risk.

This paper is devoted to compute the sample size for estimation of Normal distribution mean with Bayesian approach. The Quadratic loss function is considered and three criterions are applied to obtain p- tolerance regions with the lowest posterior loss. These criterions are: average length, average coverage and worst outcome. The proposed methodology is examined, and its effectiveness is shown.

This research deals with the factors that lead to encouragement and increasing satisfaction of industrial units participating in any exhibition. These factors can not only bring in repeated request from previous industrial units but also attract new ones into the exhibition. According to those active firms in exhibition centers, the most important factors are: the design of booth place, available public services in exhibition center, advertising and attracting professional visitors. The data analysis was done by the use of spss software. The results showed that the exhibition holders in order to attract the industrial units and improve their conditions, they must establish proper actions in advertisement, welfare services, inviting professional visitors and the improved booth place design to obtain the satisfaction of booth holders.

Surveying the supplying market, as well as choosing the most proper supplier, is one of the most important activities in every organization and company. Neglecting the conditions of parts and raw material supply or disregarding cooperation with the suppliers would lead to an increase in purchase costs, quality control costs, and quality guarantee costs. All the mentioned costs would eventually make the customer dissatisfied with the final goods and services. In ranking the suppliers and choosing them as suppliers, several criteria and factors should be considered.
In this paper, in order to rank and evaluate the suppliers of Iran Tractor Manufacturing Company (ITMCo), we have studied the methods and models of multiple attribute decision making, and eventually, have chosen the proper model. The research population consists of the experts of parts-supplying department of ITMCo.
First, the important criteria evaluating and ranking the suppliers of ITMCo. Were determined based on library Study and interviewing the experts. Then, by using a questionnaire and based on the Shanon Enteropy Method the importance rate of each criterion was specified.
Studying the multiple attribute decision making models showed that TOPSIS model is the most suitable model for ranking the suppliers of ITMCo.
The parts needed in ITMCo in 2005 (1384) are divided in to 6 main categories: 1) Completed forged and cast parts
2) Completed parts
3) Completed machined parts
4) half-completed forged and cast parts
5) half-completed sheeted parts
6) half-completed machined parts.
Since studying all the mentioned groups is not feasible in this paper, we have confined our study only to the ranking of the suppliers of the first category, the completed forged and cast parts.