فهرست مطالب مهیار محبی میمندی

In order to be aware of the Covid-19 effect on mortality pattern in Iran, in this study, based on the published mortality data of the National Organization for Civil Registration, has been tried to estimate the level and pattern of age and sex of excess mortalityin Iran . Data onweekly mortality by age and sex from 2015 to 2021 from the National Organization for Civil Registration and data on weekly mortality due to Covid-19 from the weekly reports of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education were obtained and the excess mortality was estimated using the exponential smoothing regression prediction function. Results showed that the official statistics of deaths reported in the country do not include all deaths caused by Covid-19; this disease has also caused an increase of about 30 % in deaths since its outbreak The sex ratio of Covid-19 deaths in Iran is estimated at 1.1 and more than 80% of Covid-19 deaths have occured in the age group of 55 years and older. Like some developing countries in Iran, deaths due to Covid-19 are significantly reported less .The results of this study demonstrate the importance of rapid reporting all-cause mortality for epidemic monitoring.

Population growth and changes in age structure both are the most important consequences of demographic transition. how the interaction between these two important variables is resulted from fertility and mortality, and in turn affects national economy is a question which has not been answered in previous researches. Examining the age details of the effect of demographic changes on the economic growth rate, the purpose of this article is to provide an answer to this question. To do this, the population growth rate has been aggregated into age-specific growth rates and using the age profiles of production and consumption, the impacts of the weight and changes of population by age segments on the first demographic dividend have been estimated and analyzed. The findings show that the share growth rate, which indicates both the size and the changes of population of each age, is capable to represent the effect of phenomena such as baby boom, and population momentum on the amount of Iran's demographic dividend. Also, almost simultaneously with the age transition, a demographic-economic transition is taking place due to the interaction of the economic life cycle and the change in the age structure. The results show that the decrease in the population of age groups under 30 years old, during a period from the middle of the first phase to the middle of the third phase of the age transition, makes an important contribution to the negative growth of the effective number of consumers and the increase of the population of prime age adult (30-49 years old) leading to the positive growth of the effective number of producers per consumers and, as a result , the realization of the first demographic dividend in Iran.

Considering the high contribution of unintentional accidents to mortality, particularly in males in Iran, and their changes over the last decade, a study was conducted to review the share of deaths due to unintentional accidents in sex difference in life expectancy at birth in the country over the last decades.

The mortality data for the years 2006 to 2015 were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. Then, the child mortality was corrected using the intercensal generational method and adult mortality was corrected for underreporting based on the Bennett-Horiuchi method. The contribution of mortality changes due to unintentional accidents to increase in females’ life expectancy was calculated using the ARIAGA decomposition method.

The sex differential in life expectancy was about 3.5 years in 2006 in Iran, which decreased to 2.9 years in 2011 and increased to 3 years in in 2015. The unintentional accidents in all three periods played a dominant role in sex differential mortality, but its contribution over time was significantly reduced, with a contribution of 60% to around 42% between 2006 and 2015.

Due to the slowdown in the increase in life expectancy at birth in Iran in recent decades, attention to differential mortality, including sex difference in mortality and identification of potentials to increase life expectancy according to different groups, can increase life expectancy.

In populations in their final stage of mortality transition, one of the most important questions is the level of the geographical inequality in the life expectancy index. To investigate these inequalities in Iran, the role of age groups and causes of death in increasing life expectancy at birth in the province of Gilan compared to Sistan and Baluchestan were analyzed using the modified data of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education and Arriaga decomposition method,. The results showed that infant mortality with a rate of about 1.3 years in both sexes had the greatest impact on the difference in life expectancy at birth in the two provinces. In addition, cardiovascular diseases in women and unintentional accidents in men with  a rate of about 3 years and 1.8 years, respectively, are the most important cause of increased life expectancy at birth in Gilan compared to Sistan and Baluchestan (due to a younger pattern of mortality due to this disease in Sistan and Baluchestan). The results show that despite the transition of mortality throughout Iran, there are still significant inequalities in the mortality of the considered provinces in Iran and this has placed them in different stages of mortality, epidemiological and health transition. A fair distribution of development facilities at the geographical level can reduce these gaps and increase life expectancy in Iran as a whole.

Since at least half a century ago, life expectancy at birth in Iran has increased significantly, however, there is still a fundamental difference between life expectancy in Iran and developed countries, such as Japan. This study seeks to identify the potential for increasing life expectancy in Iran.

The number of registered deaths in Iran by age, sex and cause of death for 2015 was obtained from the death registration system of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of the I. R. Iran and also Japans death information for 2015 was obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan. After evaluating and analyzing the data, using the Arriga analysis method, the share of age groups and causes of death in the difference in life expectancy at birth of the two countries was calculated.

The increase in life expectancy at birth for Japanese men and women compared to Iran was 7.2 years and 10 years, respectively. The difference between the two countries in infant mortality in both sexes, as well as deaths of old age, especially for women, play a major role in the difference in life expectancy between the two countries. In addition, cardiovascular disease has been the main driver for the lower life expectancy of men (3.7 years) and women (5.5 years) in Japan/

It is essential that policymakers and planners increase life expectancy and community health, by reducing infant and child mortality, reducing unintentional accidents, especially at a young age, and control and improve the condition of cardiovascular disease in old age.

The advent of Covid-19 and its wide dissemination changed the epidemiological and mortality prfile of the world. The subject of this research is the emergence of the Covid-19 pandemic and the need to revise the theories of demographic transitions (demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition). Emergence of this epidemic showed that the infectious-parasitic diseases could spread faster than before, interact with chronic diseases and the aging structure of populations, adapt to the characteristics of the new world, globalization and modernization, and use their conditions for easier, faster and wider dissemination. In this respect, these emerging and re-emerging infectious-parasitic diseases in the new era are more civilized and up-to-date than their counterparts in the past. The emergence of the Covid-19 epidemic and its globalization has created a new trend of mortality and significant demographic, economic, social, cultural and behavioral effects that distinguish it from other stages of the epidemiological transition in the human history. These signs may indicate the entry into a new era of mortality in the post-demographic transition era previously referred to in more recent theoretical expressions of the epidemiological transition: the era of emerging and re-emerging infectious-parasitic diseases.

This study is an attempt to extend the application of the direct standardization method of mortality rates, so that in addition to standardizing crude death rates, age-specific rates are also standardized based of time. Using the Ministry of Health and Medical Education registry data, age-specific mortality rates are calculated based on the all and main causes of death in 2006 and 2015 at the national level. The findings of standardized age-specific rates for the year 2015 indicate that the effect of age structure changes on age-specific mortality rates for all and the main causes of death, especially in middle and older ages, has been largely increasing. The only exception in this case was deaths from unintentional accidents at ages 15 to 24, with the age structure changes displaying a declining effect. Given the continuing process of age structure change toward older ages, it is important to consider the potential impact of age structure on mortality in policy-making and its barriers to reducing mortality rates.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the most important factors in the occurrence and epidemic of emerging infectious diseases such as Covid-19 and their relationship with modernization and globalization based on the concepts presented in the sociological perspective of risky society Irish Beck and the demographic view of health transition. The research method is descriptive-analytical and based on existing documents. According to the findings, the most important reasons for occurrence of emerging infectious diseases is environmental change (climate change and global warming and deforestation), which is related to human interventions in nature. Urbanization, high density in cities, air pollution, the increase in migration and the growth of spatial mobility are also among the most important factors in the spread of diseases such as Covid-19. All these causes and factors are related to modernization, globalization and its risks. On the other hand, social, economic, health and geographical inequalities also play an important role in the continued presence of the Covid-19 epidemic within and between countries, especially in middle-income countries such as Iran. These inequalities have become more pronounced, especially after the discovery of the vaccine. Therefore, occurrence, global prevalence and differences between countries in this field can be explained with the risky society and the health transition approaches.