فهرست مطالب وحیده انصاری

One of the important reasons for the low per capita consumption of fish, especially farmed fish, is the fear of fish being unhealthy due to the use of antibiotics, chemical poisons, chemical drugs and the low health of fish breeding ponds. So, an attention to organic fish production in Iran can lead to an increase in consumption of such an organic product which would become a vital product by consumers. It should be noted that according to the information available in the Iranian Fisheries Organization (IFO), no organic or healthy fish products are currently grown in Iran, and this is an important reason for the low level of farmed fish consumption in the country; in addition, with the establishment of a healthy fish market, besides benefiting the consumer, the producer would also have a kind of competitive advantage, leading to an increase in demand for his healthy product and benefits in this way. Therefore, this study aimed mainly at investigating the willingness of people to pay for healthy farmed salmon, and its innovation was the research on healthy fish while there were used to be conducted the research on consumer behavior in Iran due to the lack of a market for this product.  In this study, the conditional valuation method was used to determine the factors affecting the consumers' willingness to overpay for organic salmon products compared to non-organic ones. This method tries to find out the willingness to pay by preparing a questionnaire and referring to people. Considering that the type of dependent variable in this research was discrete and sequential and had an order in classes and actually showed different levels of consumers' willingness to pay additional fees, to investigate the factors affecting consumers' willingness to pay, the ordinal logit model was used. This type of model is frequently used in survey studies where respondent preferences are categorized as ratings. According to previous similar studies and the research literature, variables such as income, gender, job, marital status, education, awareness of organic products, price or quality preferences, history of consuming organic products, trust in the product health certificate and authorities issuing this certificate and the household’s monthly amount of fish consumption could affect people's willingness to pay for the healthy fish. The statistical population studied in this research included Tehran citizens, and Cochran's formula was used to select the sample size by the information collected through 30 preliminary questionnaires; and finally, the sample size was estimated to be 398 people who were interviewed using the clustered classification method and the desired model was estimated using STATA 17 software. The study results indicated an average willingness to pay by 55 percent., so that the interviewed people were willing to pay 55 percent more than the price of normal fish for the organic/healthy fish. Considering the 30 percent increase in the cost of producing the healthy fish compared to the normal fish, it would also result in good profitability for the producers. The final impact of the age index in the first three groups was positive. This meant that with the increase in age, the probability of people being placed in low groups of willingness to pay would increase; in other words, the credibility of these people's presence in groups with a high willingness to pay would decrease. According to the results, if the person in question was a man, the probability of his placement in the first three groups with the lower willingness to pay would decrease, and the probability of his placement in the three groups with a higher willingness to pay would increase; in addition, the probability of placing married people in the groups with the willingness to pay higher would increase, so that when a person gets married, the probability of being placed in group 4 equals 0.53, group 5 equals 0.31 and group 6 equals 0.92 percent will increase. With the increase of each year to the years of education, the probability of placing a person in the top three groups of willingness to pay would increase and the probability of placing him in the bottom three groups would decrease. The probability of employees being placed in the bottom three groups was less and the probability of them being placed in the top three groups of willingness to pay would increase, compared to people with other jobs. According to the sign of the final impact of the income group variable, it was clear that if a person's income increased by one level, the probability of his placement in the first to third groups of willingness to pay would decrease by 2.4, 1.3 and 0.09 percent, respectively while the probability of his placement in the fourth, fifth and sixth groups would increase by 1.1, 0.6 and 2 percent, respectively. But the individual's awareness variable would also have a positive impact on his willingness to pay, so that with an increase in a person's awareness of healthy and organic products, the probability of his placement in groups 4, 5 and 6 would increase by 1.2, 0.7 and 2 percent, respectively. But if an individual's agreement with the fact that the quality was more important than the price in buying the desired product increased by one level, the probability of his being placed in the first to third groups would decrease by 7.5, 4 and 0.2 percent, respectively as well as while the probability of his presence decreased in groups four to six, it would increase by 3.6, 2.1 and 6.2 percent, respectively. The results of the estimation of the ordinal logit model showed the positive effect of the variables including gender, education, employment, income level, level of awareness, number of consumption times per month and quality orientation index. On the other hand, the lack of trust variable would also have a negative effect on the willingness to pay. The awareness index had also a positive and significant effect on people's willingness to pay; and considering that less than 25 percent of people in the society had proper information about the importance of consumption and production of organic products, this issue would become more necessary and important. This result showed the very high importance of paying attention to the cultivation of organic and healthy products from the production to the consumption stages at the community level. Considering the fact that people who believed that the quality of the product was more important than its price, we can also reach the high importance of consumer education. By promoting the mindset that the quality and health of food products is more important than its price among other members of the society, its demand and as a result, the overall health of the society can also be improved.

Among the critically forbidden plains of Tehran province, Varamin plain is more critical. The agricultural sector in this plain consumes more than 80 percent of the underground water resources. In the Varamin plain, most farmers tend to use traditional irrigation methods such as flood and leaky irrigation to irrigate their lands. According to economists, the reason for the low efficiency of irrigation and the loss of water resources in this sector, which has led to the current situation of the Varamin plain, is the low price of water compared to the other inputs. Therefore, it is essential to review the current method of water pricing and determine the reasonable water price in this plain. So, this study was conducted to answer these questions: What is the economic value of water in the Varanin plain? How can a change in water price affect the crop pattern and the farmers' profit? What are the responses of farmers to changing the price of this input? How much can a rise in water prices save the water input? Answering these questions can be a step towards modifying the pattern of water consumption in the Varamin plain. Therefore, this study aimed at calculating the economic value of the water and then, analyzing the impact of an increase in water price on farmers' reactions and the crop pattern in the Varamin plain.

The economic value of water was estimated through two methods calculating the residual value by subtracting the cost of all inputs except water from the income for each product and evaluating the shadow price of water using Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP). Then, the impacts of water price changes on the crop pattern, water consumption, and farmers' profits were estimated using PMP model. The water demand function and water elasticity also were estimated by a stepwise increase of 5 percent in the water price in the third stage of the PMP model. The required data was collected by completing 120 questionnaires using the stratified sampling method and proportional allocation from the farmers of three cities in the Varamin plain including Varamin, Pishva and Pakdasht in the cropping year of 2019-2020. The data were collected for six crops (wheat, barley, corn, alfalfa, cucumber, and tomato), including the quantity and price of production and the quantity and price of inputs (land, seed, fertilizers, pesticide, water, labor, and machinery) in the concerned cities.  

The weighted average of each cubic meter of water using the residual value as well as the shadow price methods were equal to 35769.8 and 23917.6 IRI rials, respectively. This result shows a big difference between the economic value and the price paid by farmers, which is between seven to ten-folds. The results of estimating the demand function of water showed that the water demand elasticity was equal to zero up to the price of 27386.1 IRI rials. At higher prices, the farmers responded to the increase in water price, and the elasticity of water demand was equal to -2.15 on average. Based on the results, the shadow price of water obtained from PMP model (23917.6 IRI rials) does not affect the crop pattern and the water consumption, although it reduces farmers' profit by 48.66 percent. The economic price of water obtained using residual value method (23917.6 IRI rials) causes a decrease of 36.84 percent in the cultivated area, a 25.24 percent reduction in the water consumption, and a 74.59 percent reduction in the profit. Most of the change in the cultivated area was related to barley. Although, this crop consumes less water per hectare than other crops, the share of water cost per kilogram of barley is higher than the other products. After barley, the cultivated area of wheat, alfalfa, corn, cucumber, and tomato would respectively decrease for the same reason.

The results showed that applying the policy of increasing the price of water up to its economic value led to a decrease in farmers' profits and might reduce their motivation in production. In addition, applying this policy suddenly can lead to adverse reactions such as resistance and avoidance of paying this water price, social tensions, and public discontent. Therefore, gradually adjusting and increasing water prices for a long time was suggested. By adopting this policy, gradually, agricultural water consumption would decrease, and the cropping pattern would shift toward water-saving crops.

The allocation of financial resources to the agricultural sector by banks is often based on the Markowitz model, in which the risk and return of an investment are taken into account at the same time. However, considering these two criteria alone in the allocation of financial resources cannot lead to the development of products with economic sustainability and compatible to the Irans’climatic conditions. In this study, a model for allocating financial resources to the agriculture sector has been developed in which the economic sustainability of products has also been considered in addition to the goals of increasing return and reducing the risk of financing the products. This model was applied to the data of the Agricultural Bank of Iran, as the main supplier of financial resources to the agricultural sector, and specified the optimal loan portfolio for this bank. The model was solved using the e-constraint method within the lexicographic approach in the form of a multi-objective mathematical programming model. Results indicate that the proposed optimal loan portfolio for the agriculture sector is much more preferred to current banks’ portfolio in terms of return, risk and economic sustainability index. Also, the developed model suggests a loan portfolio in which the largest share is given to products that are most compatible with the country's climatic conditions and provide the highest risk compensation index. Thus, the resulted loan portfolio can guarantee the benefit of the bank's shareholders, help to fulfill the banks’ development responsibilities, and support the policy maker in development of sustainable products and transferring the current cultivation patterns towards a sustainable cultivation pattern. Therefore, it is suggested that the Bank of Agriculture and the other financial providers utilize the proposed model and take into account the economic sustainability index of the products in allocating the financial resources to agricultural products.

Evaluating the effects and consequences of the policies at the macro-economic level and examining their possible weaknesses are necessary for implementing successful economic policies. For this purpose, the existence of a set of data to perform various economic analyzes enables economic policy-makers to evaluate the effects of economic policies before and after their implementation. Financial Social Accounting Matrix (FSAM) is a combination of funds flow and social accounting matrix for macroeconomics that provides details of real and financial transactions and flows. The addition of financial transactions (financial institutions and financial instruments) allows SAM to simulate the impact of exogenous economic and financial shocks on the economy. Therefore, the creation of a new data framework, new tools and methods that covers the financial market and its relationship with other economic systems is necessary to review economic policies and decisions. Therefore, the present study aims to create FSAM for Iran and, while evaluating the impact of financial accounts in economic analysis, to measure the effects of the development of raw and processed food exports on the growth of production of economic activities. Also, for updating FSAM data, in this study, the supply and use tables of Iran's economy are also updated, so that Iran's financial social accounting matrix is compiled with the most up-to-date information possible.

Using the input-output table is necessary to compile the parts of the exchanges of the real part of the social financial accounting matrix. These tables need to be updated due to the time gap between the statistical base year and the year of their publication. Therefore, in this study, the updated supply and use table of Iran's economy for 2018 was prepared using the RAS method. After updating the supply and consumption tables, the social financial accounting matrix of Iran with dimensions of 268*268 [taking into account 126 goods and services, 79 activities, 3 factors of production (labor, land and capital), 20 household deciles (10 urban and 10 rural deciles) and 8 financial instruments (gold and special drawing rights, cash and deposits, government bonds, shares, loans, legal reserves, insurance technical reserves and other accounts receivable/payable)] was made.

According to FSAM coefficients, if the demand for crops (for any reason such as increase in government demand or export) increases by 1000 Rials, the production of agricultural activities will increase by 1039 Rials and the production of horticultural activities will increase by 80 Rials. The effect of this increase in demand on animal husbandry, forestry, fishing, mining and food production is equal to 178, 2, 21, 218 and 237 Rials, respectively. Totally, the increase in the demand of crops by 1000 Rials increases the production of the whole economy by 3746 Rials. Comparison of SAM and FSAM coefficients showed that the coefficients in all accounts in the FSAM model are higher than in the SAM model, which indicates the important role of financial flows in the economy. In order to investigate the effect of the increase in the export of the studied products on the production of the entire economy, the amount of export of these products in 2017 and their coefficients at the level of the entire economy have been used. For this purpose, an increase shock of 10% has been applied to the initial export of these products, and the results of the increase in production were calculated based on the increasing coefficients of FSAM and SAM. The results show that due to the 10% increase in the export of each of the examined products, the largest increase in production at the economic level is achieved due to the development of the export of food industry products, and the total production of the economy increases by 82901 billion Rials.

The results showed that the coefficients in all accounts in the FSAM model are higher than in the SAM model, which indicates the important role of financial flows in the economy. In fact, the development of integrated financial information at the national level is to understand the interrelationship between the real and financial aspects of the economy. In the framework of FSAM, the savings of the internal institutions of the society, which are not allocated to the formation of gross fixed capital, are given to the specific productive sector through the financial markets; and in a positive cycle, it leads to more investment, more production and more income, and creates a connection between the real and financial part of the economy. Therefore, these considerations in the social financial accounting matrix have increased the coefficients of the studied products. Considering the significant impact of financial flows and the effects of financial accounts and financial investment of institutions, the use of FSAM can provide a comprehensive framework for evaluating the structural characteristics of Iran's economy and the relationship between socio-economic components.

Chicken meat is an important source of protein supply in the household food basket. Therefore, planning for timely and adequate supply of this food product is very necessary and important. However, building new production capacity is a time-consuming investment that should be undertaken gradually based on the prediction of demand over time. The purpose of this study is to determine the appropriate locations for building new broiler farms to meet the demand for this product in the horizon 1415 with the aim of minimizing transportation costs in the chicken meat production and distribution network. To meet this aim, the new poultry farms have to be located in places where the meat demand in each city can be supplied from the nearest slaughterhouse and the live chicken produced by the poultry farms can be sent to the nearest slaughterhouse, using a transportation mathematical programming framework. Results of this study indicate that, to meet the demand for chicken meat in the horizon of 1415, it is necessary to create a new capacity for growing 113 million one day chicks in the country. Based on the result of this study, to complete the chicken meat production chain and minimize transportation costs in the chain, the new capacities should be distributed over 22 cities in 6 provinces, including, Khuzestan Razavi, Sistan and Baluchestan, Fars, Kerman, Kohkiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, And Hormozgan provinces.  These results provide good guidance for the policy makers and planners in developing new chicken mean production capacities in Iran. Also, the locations specified by this study, as the best places for building new capacities, can be used by financial institutions in financing poultry farms investment in the country. Thus, it is worth considering the results of this study by both policy makers and financial institution.

small lands are very common in rice farms, which, as economists believe, leads to the lack of optimal use of production resources and consequently increases production costs of rice and its price. Therefore, empirical investigation of economies of size in rice farms is very important for reducing production costs. To achieve purpose of the present study, data on rice production and its costs were collected from 180 farmers in four cities of Guilan province for the 2019-2020 crop year. Using Duality's theory, the cost function and demand functions estimated in three flexible functional forms namely Translog, Normalized Quadratic, and Generalized Leontief. Based on the estimated parameters of the best model, the elasticity of the size was estimated. As well, average cost function of rice production was estimated and based on it, the elasticity of the average cost with respect to the production was calculated.The results show that Translog functional form is the most suitable form for the expression of rice production technology in Guilan province. Results show that structural parameter of “Return to Size” for paddy farms is equal to 1.33 in average and is greater than one for all the observations. As well, elasticity of average cost relative to production is negative for all the farmers. Therefore, estimated models prove the advantage of economies of size and negative slope of average cost function in all rice farms . So, there is no any farm with efficient size in the studied sample and it is possible to reduce the production costs and the cost price of rice by increasing the size of production for all the farms. based on the findings of this research, land integration policies and increasing the size of rice paddies are suggested as an effective strategy to reduce production costs of rice production.

Increasing rice production in Iran due to the scarcity of production resources requires increasing productivity. In order to achieve this goal, the land equipping and renovation project has been implemented in the country. Since the most important rice - producing province in Iran is Mazandaran province, the main goal of present study is to analysis the effect of implementing land equipping and renovation project on productivity in paddy fields of Mazandaran province. For this purpose, the required information was collected by filling out a questionnaire from seven cities of Mazandaran province for the crop year 2017-18. The Tornqvist-Theil index was used to calculate the total factor productivity of first cultivation rice. Then, to investigate the factors affecting productivity, linear regression models was estimated using ordinary least squares method. Also, logistic regression model was used to determine factors distinguish between high productivity farmers and low productivity ones in first cultivation rice. The results show that in both linear and logistic models, the variables of land equipping and renovation project, land rent, geographical area (east vs. west of the province), production technology in the form of improved varieties (high yield vs. local) and doing second cultivation, as well as specialization of farmer have had a positive effect on productivity while the scale of production has no effect on productivity. The calculation of the marginal effect based on the Logit model shows that the land equipping and renovation program is one of the most important factors affecting rice productivity so that the implementation of this project have caused to increase probability of achieving a higher than “average productivity of all farmers” up to 28 percent. Based on the results, considering that implementation of land equipping and renovation project has taken many years, it is recommended to pay attention to implement it as soon as possible in other parts of the Mazandarn province.

It is believed that land fragmentation and small size of the farms causes low productivity and, high cost of production and results in a decrease in the farmers’ net income. Thus, it is worth to study empirically the effects of lands fragmentation on the cost of production. Guilan province is one of the areas where agricultural land Fragmentation is widely observed. Therefore, the main goal of this study is to estimate the effect of agricultural land fragmentation on the production cost of rainfed wheat in Guilan province. To this end, production and cost data of wheat and barley was collected for the crop year 2014-2015 through questionnaires from Deylaman and Malakut regions in the Guilan province. An indirect cost function approach was utilized and the best functional form was chosen using econometric criteria. Based on the estimated parameters of the chosen model, the cost elasticities of all variables including numbers of land fragments were estimated. Results indicate that, the Translog functional form is most appropriately represents production technology of wheat and barley in the study regions. Also, result confirms that fragmentation of land causes increase in the average cost of production and demand for labor input in these two crops. In addition, the estimated scale elasticities reveal an increasing returns production technology in the studied crops. Accordingly, land consolidation and augmentation policies are suggested to reduce average cost of production.

The exchange rate in Iran has experienced considerable increase with some fluctuations over last two decades. This has resulted in an increased cost of food production in Iran. Since, further increase in exchange rate is expected in the future, it is important to determine which groups of agricultural products, produced in different agricultural sub-sectors, are more sensitive to these changes and also to specify the major paths through which exchange rate increase is transmitted to different agricultural products. The main objective of this study is to provide explanations for these questions.

To achieve the objectives of the study, a social accounting matrix (SAM) has been constructed based on the latest Iranian Input-Output Table released in 2011 by the Statistical Center of Iran. This SAM is a 110× 110 matrix and consists of different accounts.  Three accounts for factors of production (labor, land and capital), 6 household accounts (rural and urban households divided into three groups of low, middle and high income), one government account, one capital account, one account for rest of the world, and finally, one account for commodities which includes 49 domestic commodities and 49 imported commodities. To trace the effects of changes in exchange rate on prices of different products, the matrix of SAM is transformed to a SAM-based price analytical model. Then, the structural path decomposition approach is used to specify the major paths through which the effects of increase in exchange rate are transferred to major agricultural products in different sub-sectors.

Results of this study revealed that livestock and poultry products are the most responsive products to a shock on the exchange rate. Thus, the effect of the shock on the prices of these products is significant. Forestry and agricultural services are in the second place from this point of view. Crop farming products, fish and other fisheries products, and horticultural products are ranked on the next place. Since producing livestock and poultry products extensively depend on the imported feed materials, the production cost and consequently, the prices of the first group of products experience the highest increase. Subsidizing feed materials, following an exchange rate shock, or direct payment to the low income households’ group might be a way to mitigate the negative effects of the exchange rate shock on food security in Iran. The results of structural path analysis indicate that the effects of increase in exchange rate on the prices of agricultural products are mostly transmitted through increasing import prices in six main economic sectors namely; “materials and chemical products”, “crop farming products”, “food products” “textiles, leather and their products”, “the machinery and equipment” and “hotel and restaurant services”. However, impacts of the above sectors on prices are not the same in all agricultural subsectors. Price of “crop farming products” is mostly affected by prices of imported “crop farming products” as well as “materials and chemical products”. Prices of “horticultural products” and “forestry and agricultural services” are mainly affected by increasing prices of imported “materials and chemical products”. On the other hand, price of “livestock and poultry products” changes considerably with increase in import prices of “crop farming products (raw materials)” and “food products”. Finally, price of “fish and other fishing products” is mostly affected by price of imported “food products”.
Based on the results of structural path analysis, the paths through which exchange rate shock are transferred to the cost of production and consequently prices of agricultural products are two separate channels. Increase in import prices of “materials and chemical products”, “crop farming products” and “food products” is transmitted to the prices of agricultural products as these products are utilized as inputs in production process of agricultural products directly or indirectly. On the other hand, an increase in import prices of “textiles, leather and their products” and “the machinery and equipment” indirectly affects production cost of agricultural products by first stimulating an increase in prices of primary factors, following increased cost of living for owners of these inputs.

To decrease the negative impact of exchange shock on prices of food products, different policies can be adopted, depending on the sectors playing the main role in increasing the cost of production and the path through which the shock is transmitted. Generally, subsidizing feed materials, following an exchange rate shock, through allocation of preferred exchange rate or supplying these materials with a subsidized price is recommended for the products such as poultry products in which most of the feeding materials are imported. On the other hand, direct payment to the low income households’ group might be a way to mitigate the negative effects of the exchange rate shock on food security in cases that most of the increased cost of production comes from increase in the cost of primary inputs.

Among the sources of production growth, export is the major component strongly influenced by government policies. This study aimed mainly at investigating the effect of export composition change (ie the commodities’ export share over times) on the growth of agricultural production using the structural decomposition analysis method. For this purpose, firstly, the growth of production was decomposed into four main factors including the effect of change in domestic final demand, the effect of change in exports, the effect of technology change and the effect of import substitution. Then, the effects of change in exports were also subjected to further decomposition to determine the effect of the export composition change on production growth in more details. This operation was performed using input-output tables of 1991 and 2001 which were deflated. According to the results, the change in exports had a positive effect on the production growth of all the agricultural sub-sectors, except for livestock and poultry products. In addition, decomposing the effect of exports showed that the growth of crops, horticulture, fish and other aquaculture products was mostly influenced by increasing their own exports. However, in the case of livestock and poultry sector, the negative effect of decline in exports of food products and beverages caused to reduce the growth of this sector. These results suggested that to increase the agricultural production, in addition to the importance of an increase in the exports of agricultural raw materials, investment in the development of food industry to process high-quality products characterized by competitiveness in the world markets might be a major driver of growth in the agricultural raw products.

Support policies for agricultural sector are among the most important economic policies in developed as well as developing countries. Therefore, in the present study, the effect of consumer and producer support policies on the investment in agricultural sector was studied using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) during the 1981-2013 period. The results show that producer and consumer support policies in agricultural sector have had a positive and significant effect on the investment in agricultural sector. According to the results, the ratio of labor force to agricultural land in the studied period showed a negative effect on investment in agricultural sector of the country, indicating a substitutional relationship between labor and capital. On the other hand, the variable of consumer price index has a negative effect on investment in agricultural sector. That is, the real interest rate, which is the difference between inflation and nominal interest rate, decreases with increasing inflation, leading to reduced investment. Also, the ECM variance coefficient of the model, which indicates the modulation rate of the short-term dynamic

Due to the scarcity of production factors, it is essential to enhance productivity as the best way of achieving agricultural sector’s growth. In order to attain a proper level of productivity growth in economic sectors, it is required to have a clear image of the total factor productivity (TFP) growth and the productivity of every production resource in such sectors. So, the main purpose of the present study is to analyze total factor productivity in the Iranian agricultural sector and its four subsectors (crops and horticulture, livestock and poultry, fishery, and forestry) over the period 1986-2001. To this end, the partial and the total factor productivity were calculated by Tornqvist- Theil index based on input-output tables. In addition, the total factor productivity was decomposed into the productivity of four inputs, namely labor, capital, land, and intermediate factors. For this purpose, the input-output tables of the years 1986, 1991, and 2001 that have been published by the Statistical Center of Iran and deflated to constant price, were employed. Results generally showed that, although productivity of some inputs has increased during the study period, however, total factor productivity has declined in all agricultural sub-sectors, except in the livestock and poultry sub-sector. The highest and lowest annual growth of productivity has been 1.47 and -1.68 percent in livestock and poultry sub-sector and forestry sub-sector, respectively. Given that increase in productivity is essential for any growth in output and to offset any increase in product prices, a focus on the increase in productivity of low productivity inputs through the development of a comprehensive and long-term plan by the sector planners is recommended.

As one of the most important productive inputs, workforce plays a significant role in the economy of any country. This factor has a dual role in economic planning so that on the one hand, it acts as a development agent, and serves as a development goal on the other hand. At present, one of the main issues of Iran's economy is unemployment and it consequences. Among the policies that seem to be effective are government support policies. Therefore, this research investigated the effect of producer and consumer support policies on agricultural employment in the period of 1981-2012 using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results indicated that consumer and producer support policies in agricultural sector had a positive and significant effect on the employment of the agricultural sector in the country (Iran). Also, the results show that inflation and capital to cultivated area ratio during the studied period had a negative effect on employment in agriculture sector. These results disapprove the Phillips curve in Iran's agricultural sector and confirm the substitution relationship between capital and workforce in this sector. The coefficient of ECM model, which indicates the modulation rate of the short-term dynamic pattern toward long-term equilibrium, is equal to -0.149 indicating that 15% of the imbalance error will be eliminated in each period.

The growth of the agricultural sector is considered essential as a substrate for achieving the development goals in developing countries. According the importance of agriculture as well as the risky nature of production, corruption and other purposes, the government have always supported the agricultural sector. This study investigates the effects of macroeconomic variables and policy support on the growth of the agricultural sector in Iran. In this context, factors affecting the value added of the agricultural sector, gross capital formation, exports and imports of agricultural sector were investigated using a three-stage least squares model as a system of simultaneous equations with four equations during the period 1981-2015. The variables of capital-to-labor ratio, producer support, consumer support, exports of agricultural products, and value added lags with coefficients of 0.488, 0.156, 0.008, 0.021 and 0.111, respectively, showed a significantly positive effect on the value added of agriculture. Also, the variable of imports of agricultural products with a coefficient of -0.120 showed a negative and significant effect on the value added of agricultural sector. Factors affecting export, import and gross capital formation of agricultural sector were explained. The results showed that the support policy on the agricultural sector is not of adequate efficiency and it is necessary, for planners and policymakers, to point out the extent and the way of allocating supports more appropriately.

The present study conducted to specify agricultural activities having prioriety in achieving employment growth rate targeted in the sixth National Economic, Social, and Cultural Development Plan in Iran. To this end, a regional mathematical programing model for agricultural sector is integrated with a mixed model of social accouting matrix to connect national employment objective to the regional agricultural production inputs constraint. Using such an integrated model, it is poosible to specify what activities and in what provinces have the prioriety to be expanded and are more helpful in achieving national employment objective. Results indicate that to reach 3.9 percent employment growth rate specified in the sixth national plan, a growth rate of 4.4 percent in agricultural sector is required. The growth rate in farming, horticulture, livestock, and fisheries subsectors are 4.8, 2.3, 6.8, and 4.3 percent, respectively. Results also reveal that wheat with 8.3 percent and rice with 0.1 percent have the highest and lowest priority, respectively, for expansion in the crops sub-sector. In this sub-sector, Khuzestan, Ardebil and Fars provinces have the highest priority for this crop.to be considered. In the horticultural sub-sector, plum product has the highest proriety to be expanded by a growth rates of 3.5% and tea product has the lowest peroriety to be expanded with a growth rate of 0.3 percent. In this sub-sector, the provinces of Fars, Mazandaran and East and West Azarbaijan have the highest priority to be considered for development of horticultural activities. Regarding livestock, poultry and aquaculture products, results show that a more peroriety must be given to the beef production relative to the carp production. Mazandaran, Khuzestan, Gilan, Chaharmahal Bakhtiari and Lorestan are the provinces with the highest priority in the development of aquaculture activities. However, the development of livestock and poultry activities does not differ significantly between provinces of the country.

Production in agricultural sector is always facing with some fluctuations. Since this sector provides inputs for most of the economic sectors, fluctuations in production of agricultural sector are transferred to the related sectors and, results in fluctuation in these sectors. Given that food and beverage industries are the main industries using agricultural products, the purpose of the present study is to investigate the effect of production changes in agricultural subsectors (crops and horticulture, livestock and poultry, fisheries and forestry) on the production of food and beverage industries. To this end, Ghosh supply-driven model based on input-output table is applied as the analytical framework. In addition, to investigate the effect trend of the production change in agricultural sector on the food and beverage products over past three decades, input-output tables of 1986, 1991, 2001 are utilized. Results indicate that changes in production of agricultural sub-sectors have the highest effect on food and beverage industries relative to the other economic sectors. Moreover, investigation of changes in the linkage between agricultural subsectors and food and beverage industries over studied period shows that linkages of the fisheries sub-sector have increased. For livestock and poultry sub-sector, these linkages remained constant, where the other agricultural sub-sectors have experienced a decrease in linkages with food and beverage industries. These result lead to the conclusion that, to create more values from crops and horticultural products, the expansion of food industries which are more related to these products, has to be considered more seriously.

Given continuous increase in population and growth of living standards, requires to food products is increasing with tremendous speed. Importance of providing sufficient food from one hand, and emphasis on Iran's regional position in the country's Vision 1404, from the other hand, has encouraged policy makers and planners to improve food security index. However, before any planning and policy making, recognizing Iran’s current situation in terms of the multiple dimensions of food insecurity is very important. So, in the present study, Iran's position in the MENA region over the period 2013- 2000 is assessed, using a Consolidated multi-criteria decision approach and entropy technique. To this end, at the first, the weight of the different criteria was calculated through entropy method, then ranking of the countries was done using the Analytical Hierarchy Process. The results show that Iran is in fourteenth place among 21 countries of the MENA region in terms of food security. Results also indicate the positive correlation between food security and per capita GDP, trade liberalization, and the mechanization of agriculture, but negative correlation between food security and population as well as inequality in income distribution. So, it is suggested that government operate in order to improve food security index by removing trade barrier and eliminating sanctions, promoting mechanization in agricultural sector, and giving more consideration to the living situation of the low income groups.

Technological change is one of the most important sources of the output growth not only on the supply side but also on the demand side of the economy. The output growth in the demand side happens because, technological change in each of the economic sectors causes input substitution among production inputs that can influence the growth of output in other sectors through the backward linkages. In the present study, the impact of technological change in the Iranian economic sectors on the production growth of four agricultural sub-sectors has been analyzed over 1986-2001 periods. To this end, structural decomposition analysis methodology has been utilized using input-output tables of the years 1986, 1991, and 2001. Following this approach and as a first step, output growth has been decomposed into three main components including, changes in final demand, import substitution, and technological change. Then, the technological change effect has further been decomposed into individual coefficients that reveal technological change effects in each of the economic sectors on the growth of output in agricultural subsectors. Results indicate that growth of agricultural products is highly influenced by technological change in food industries which has been relatively livestock and poultry using and the other agricultural products saving. This result emphasizes the necessity of developing food industries for processing cropping, horticulture and fisheries products parallel to the development of livestock and poultry processing industry.

Setting the price of water equal to its economic value has important role in the management of water demand, especially in the recent water crisis. One of the main components in determining economic value of water is the price of the product. Therefore, it is important to adopt precise supportive policies on pricing the product. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to analysis the effect of guaranteed price policy for sugar beet on the real value of water and its optimal allocation in Neyshabur. To this end, at the first, the appropriate functional form conformed to the production technology of the sugar beet was selected based on econometric criteria and using information about 95 farmers in the year 2011 which were selected by two stage sampling method and marginal productivity of water was calculated. Then, the economic value of water was analyzed in several scenarios considering different guaranteed prices. The results show that the best functional form for the production function is Translog function and economic value of water based on 2011 price was estimated1430.5 Rails per cubic meters which has major difference with the farmers paying price. Moreover, the results indicate that imposing different guaranteed prices for sugar beet will lead to significant differences in the economic value of water. So, for improving efficiency of water use, guaranteed price of agricultural products should be determined with more caution so as to reflect the real value of water for preventing wastage of it.

The goal of this study is survey the effect of trade in agricultural and non-agricultural sector, separately, on inflation rate in Iran. To this end, a vector error correction model (VECM) has been estimated using 1360-90 time series data. Results of this study indicate that trade variables have a significant influence on inflation rate in Iran and it is essential to enter them in the models which assess the factors affecting inflation, so that these variables improve the explanatory power of models and reliance on the precision of estimated coefficients. The results of this study show that the ratio of export to agricultural and non-agricultural products has positive long-run effects on inflation whereas the ratio of import to agricultural consumptions has a negative long- run effects on inflation. Also, based on the results, exchange rate has a significant positive long-run effect on inflation whereas growth of liquidity affects the inflation in the short run. Finally, in the present study, it has been suggested that the best strategy for reducing the gap between demand and supply, is to increase production through improving productivity, so, in this manner, inflation growth reduced without any requirement to increase import and reduce export. Also, control of the liquidity and the exchange rate growth has been introduced as the other strategies for reducing inflation.

The main objective of this study is to examine the impacts of two demand side policies، namely; expanding food industries and externally increase in households’ demand for agricultural goods، on the growth of products in agricultural subsector. To this end، a social accounting matrix (SAM) is constructed based on the latest Iranian input- output table released in 2001. Then، production multipliers and income effects were calculated for four main agricultural subsectors. Finally، multiplier coefficients were decomposed، using the structural path analysis approach to distinguish short run and long run effects of the two policies. Results indicate that among agricultural related industries، food processing industry has a high potential for accelerating growth of raw agricultural products، both in short run and long run. Expansion of other related industries such as tobacco processing، carpets and rugs، hotel and restaurant services and agricultural activities are in the second place. Results of estimating income effects show that the impacts of income injection to the household groups، specially to lower income groups on growth of raw agricultural products is significant. Furthermore، redistribution of income from high to low income groups has almost the same effect. Accordingly، the latter two policies can be viewed as an alternative policy for agricultural growth both in short run and long run.

This study investigates alternative options for allocating incomes from targeting subsidy program to different production sectors and its consequences on income distribution among Iranian households. This research is performed by computing income multipliers derived from social accounting matrix for three income groups in urban as well as rural households and allocating income to different production sectors accordingly. Results indicate that allocating income based on income multiplier of the rural high income households leads to a reduction in income inequality between rural and urban households and generates the highest absolute income for all income groups. The only drawback of this option is that it raises the income gap among different income groups in rural as well as urban regions to some extent. In addition, results reveals that in order to reach the objective of reducing income inequality, the two agricultural subsectors, cropping and horticulture production sectors, and food industries can play important role and should be given special attention in allocating income to these sectors.

The sources of output growth of Iranian agriculture over the years 1986-2001 has been examined, using a decomposition method within the input-output (IO) framework. The three comparable IO tables of 1986, 1991, and 2001 have been employed as the main data sources. Output changes from a demand side perspective, and decomposition of the growth of output into components attributable to consumption demand, investment demand, export, import substitution, as well as intermediate input use have been accounted for. Throughout the study, the economy of Iran has been divided into 20 sectors. Since the focus of the study is to identify the sources of output growth in agricultural sector, the sector is further divided into four sub-sectors with the relative prominence of sources of growth being determined for each of the sub-sectors. Results revealed that increase in intermediate input demand, increase in investment demand as well as increase in export for final goods are respectively, the main factors contributing to the output growth in farming, livestock, hunting and fishery, and forestry sectors over the 1986-91 period. As for 1991-2001 period, household demand for final products is the main source of output growth as regards the first three sectors. This factor in joint with government consumption explains the output growth in the forestry sector over the years 1991-2001. In addition, export expansion contributes to the growth of output in all the agricultural sub-sectors except for the livestock. In total, the share of contribution to output growth from intermediate demand has declined, while that from export and consumption increasing

Job creation and reducing income inequality are two major objectives of the economic development plans in Iran. In this study, it is tried to evaluate the role of the agricultural sector in getting access to these objectives. To this end, an SAM was initially developed, based on the latest input-output table published by Iran's Statistical Centre in 2001, then the related labor and income multipliers for agricultural sector, and as well for other sectors were assessed. Finally, path decomposition analysis was utilized to determine the path with the largest affecting factors on employment and income generation. Results revealed that agricultural sector bears a high potential in creating jobs and generating income especially for low income groups. Sub-sectors including horticulture, animal husbandry, and crop production sectors carry the largest potentials in creating jobs and shrinking the gaps among rural and urban households and between low and high income groups in both rural and urban areas

Job creation and reducing income inequality are two major objectives of the economic development plans in Iran. In this study, it is tried to evaluate the role of the agricultural sector in getting access to these objectives. To this end, an SAM was initially developed, based on the latest input-output table published by Iran's Statistical Centre in 2001, then the related labor and income multipliers for agricultural sector, and as well for other sectors were assessed. Finally, path decomposition analysis was utilized to determine the path with the largest affecting factors on employment and income generation. Results revealed that agricultural sector bears a high potential in creating jobs and generating income especially for low income groups. Sub-sectors including horticulture, animal husbandry, and crop production sectors carry the largest potentials in creating jobs and shrinking the gaps among rural and urban households and between low and high income groups in both rural and urban areas