arezoo bagheri
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مقدمه
طلاق به عنوان یک آسیب مهم اجتماعی همواره مورد توجه پژوهشگران و سیاستگذاران در حوزه خانواده بوده که پیامدهای آن جامعه زنان را بیشتر تحت تاثیر قرار می دهد. با توجه به اهمیت و نقش برجسته زنان در خانواده و جامعه، پژوهش حاضر به مطالعه مهمترین تعیین کننده های بقای ازدواج اول زنان مطلقه دارای فرزند پرداخت.
مواد و روش کاردر یک پیمایش مقطعی که توسط سازمان ثبت احوال کشور در سال های 1396-1397 انجام گرفت، اطلاعات مراجعه کنندگان به دفترخانه های مراکز استان ها برای ثبت طلاق با استفاده از پرسشنامه جمع آوری گردید. با توجه به حجم زیاد متغیرهای پیش بین و عدم کارایی روش های تحلیل بقای کلاسیک در مدل سازی کلان داده ها، مطالعه حاضر به بررسی مهمترین عوامل موثر بر بقای ازدواج اول 756 زن دارای فرزند با در نظر گرفتن متغیرهای مربوط به زنان و همسران، خانواده های آنان و کلان استانی با استفاده از جنگل های بقا و نرم افزار R پرداخت.
یافته هابراساس بیشترین مقدار شاخص هماهنگی هارل، کمترین میزان میانه خطای پیش بینی و کمترین مقدار نمره بریر تجمیع شده، الگوریتم قانون افراز رتبه-لگاریتمی جنگل تصادفی بقا در بررسی عوامل موثر بر بقای ازدواج اول این زنان کاراتر بود. یافته ها نشان داد که براساس شاخص های اهمیت متغیر و کمینه عمق، سن فرزند اول مهم ترین متغیر در بررسی بقای ازدواج اول آنان بود.
نتیجه گیریاز آنجا که در بسیاری از مطالعات علوم پزشکی و اجتماعی امروزه کلان داده ها تحلیل می شوند، جنگل های بقا را می توان به عنوان روشی کارا در شناسایی مهمترین متغیرهای پیش بین و کاهش بعد آنان به کار گرفت و سپس از روش های تحلیل بقای کلاسیک برای مدل سازی استفاده نمود.
کلید واژگان: بقای ازدواج اول زنان, جنگل های بقا, الگوریتم های قانون افراز جنگل های بقا, شاخص اهمیت متغیر, شاخص کمینه عمقPayesh, Volume:23 Issue: 5, 2024, PP 759 -769Objective (s)Divorce as an important social harm has always been the focus of investigators and policymakers as it affects women compared to males. Therefore, considering the importance and prominent role of women in the family and society, the present article aimed to examine the most important determinants of the first marriage survival of divorced women with children.
MethodsIn a cross-sectional survey conducted by the Civil Registry Organization in 2017-2018, the information of those who referred to the offices of the provincial centers for divorce registration was collected using a questionnaire. Considering the large number of predictors and the ineffectiveness of classic survival analysis methods in big data modeling, the present study investigated the most important factors, including women and their spouses, their families and provincial macro variables, affecting the first marriage survival of 756 women with children using survival forests using R software.
ResultsBased on the highest value of Harrell's coordination index (0.8412), the lowest mean prediction error (0.0885) and the lowest value of integrated Brier score (0.038), the algorithm of random survival forest with log rank split rule (RSF1) in investigating factors affecting the first marriage survival of these women was more efficient. The findings showed that based on variable importance and minimum depth indicators, the first child’s age was the most important variable in examining their first marriage survival.
ConclusionsSince big data are analyzed in many medical and social studies, survival forests can be used as an efficient method to identify the most important predictors and reduce their dimensions, and then use classical survival analysis methods for modeling.
Keywords: Survival Of Women's First Marriage, Survival Forests, Algorithms Of Survival Forests, Variable Importance Index, Minimum Depth Index -
ویروس کرونا میلیون ها نفر در جهان را مجبور به قرنطینه خانگی نموده و باعث ایجاد اضطراب شده است. هدف این مطالعه، بررسی اثر متغیرهای اجتماعی-اقتصادی با کنترل متغیرهای جمعیتی و بهداشتی بر روی اضطراب ناشی از کرونا در شهر نقده است. با استفاده از نمونه گیری طبقه بندی چندمرحله ای با تخصیص متناسب، 384 زن و مرد بالای 20 سال انتخاب شده و پرسشنامه 24 گویه ای CPDI برای آنان در پاییز سال 1399 تکمیل گردید. سپس، داده ها با استفاده از مدل معادلات ساختاری در نرم افزار Amos تحلیل شدند. بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده، اضطراب ناشی از کرونا برای ترک زبانان نسبت به کردزبانان، خانواده های با هزینه ماهیانه کم و متوسط نسبت به خانواده های با هزینه ماهیانه بالا، افراد با ارزیابی پائین و متوسط از وضعیت آینده نسبت به افراد با ارزیابی بالا، بیشتر بوده است. افرادی که اعضای خانواده آنان به کرونا مبتلا نشدند، افرادی که از اینترنت استفاده می کردند، و افرادی که اعتقاد داشتند کرونا تاثیر کمی بر اختلافات خانوادگی آنان داشته است، در مقایسه با افرادی که یکی از اعضای خانواده آنها به کرونا مبتلا شدند، از اینترنت استفاده نمی کردند، و بر تاثیر زیاد کرونا بر اختلافات خانوادگی تاکید داشتند، اضطراب کمتری داشتند. همچنین، با افزایش احساس ناامنی اقتصادی، اضطراب ناشی از کرونا افزایش می یافت.کلید واژگان: کرونا, اضطراب, عوامل جمعیتی و اجتماعی-اقتصادی, مدل معادلات ساختاری, نقدهThe Corona virus in the world has forced millions of people to quarantine at home and caused anxiety. The main objective of this study was to study the effect of socio - economic covariates by controlling demographic and health covariates on corona anxiety in Naghadeh. Using Proportional stratified multi-stage sampling 384 women and men over 20 years old were selected and a 24-item CPDI questionnaire was completed for them in the fall of 2019. Then, data were analyzed by Structural Equation Modeling in Amos Software. Accoridng to the results, Corona anxiety was more for Turkish people than Kurdish ones, for families with low and medium monthly expenses than those with high ones, and for people with low and medium assessments of the future situation than thoes with high ones. People whose family members were not infected with Corona, used Internet and believed that Corona had little effect on their family compared to those whose one of their family members were infected with Corona, didn’t use internet, and emphasized family disputes had less anxiety. Also, by increasing economic insecurity feeling, the Corona anxiety increased.Keywords: corona, anxiety, Demographic, socio-Economic factors, structural equation modeling, Naghdeh
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شناسایی عوامل زمینه ساز تعارض زوجین به ویژه زنان قبل از آغاز زندگی مشترک به منظور پیشگیری از گسست قانونی و همچنین افزایش رضایت زناشویی در مراحل بعدی ازدواج ضروری به نظر می رسد. هدف مطالعه حاضر، بررسی عوامل موثر بر بقای ازدواج اول 279 زن مطلقه بدون تجربه زندگی مشترک است که اطلاعات آن ها در پیمایش مقطعی طلاق سازمان ثبت احوال کشور در پاییز 1396-1397 جمع آوری گردیده است. در این مطالعه، ابتدا مهم ترین تعیین کننده های بقای ازدواج با استفاده از رویکرد ناپارامتری جنگل بقا انتخاب و سپس عوامل موثر با استفاده از روش های تحلیل بقای پارامتری با شکنندگی های فردی و مشترک شناسایی شدند. به ترتیب 17.9 و 30.1 درصد از زنان بقای ازدواج کمتر از یک سال و 1 تا 2 سال داشتند. با استفاده از کارآترین الگوریتم جنگل بقا در پیش بینی، متغیرهای پیش بین انتخاب و مدل زمان شکست شتابیده وایبل با شکنندگی مشترک به عنوان مدل نهایی بقای ازدواج اول برازش یافت. براساس این مدل، متغیرهای تعداد سال های تحصیل (0.001=p-مقدار) و تعداد سال های آشنایی غیررسمی (0.013=p-مقدار) و رسمی (0.007=p-مقدار) روی بقای ازدواج تاثیر معنی دار داشتند. بنابراین، اتخاذ سیاست هایی متناسب به منظور فراهم کردن امکان اشتغال زنان تحصیل کرده، افزایش طول مدت آشنایی رسمی و کاهش طول مدت آشنایی غیررسمی با هدف ماندگاری ازدواج زنان در دوران قبل ازدواج ضروری است.
کلید واژگان: بقای ازدواج اول, جنگل های بقا, مدل های پارامتری بقا, مدل های شکنندگی بقاIt seems necessary to identify underlying factors of conflict between couples, and especially women before starting marriage life, to prevent divorce in the later stages of marriage. The current study aims to investigate the factors affecting First Marriage Survival (FMS) of 279 divorced women without marriage life experience. First, the most important determinants of women’s FMS were selected using the non-parametric survival forest approach, and then parametric survival models were fitted to the data. FMS of 17.9% and 30.1% women were less than one year and 1-2 years, respectively. Using the most efficient survival forest algorithm in forecasting, important covariates were extracted and the shared frailty Weibull accelerated failure time model was fitted as the final FMS model; educational years (P-value=0.001) and informal (P-value=0.013) and formal (P-value=0.007) acquaintance years had significant effects on these women’s FMS. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate policies to provide the possibility of employment for educated women, increase the formal acquaintance duration, and reduce the informal acquaintance duration to survive women's marriages in the pre-marriage period.
Keywords: Women's first marriage survival, Survival forests, Parametric survival models, Frailty survival models -
امید به آینده شغلی، به عنوان یکی از ابعاد امید اجتماعی، می تواند منجر به ارتقای تاب آوری اقتصادی و اجتماعی در جامعه شود. مقاله حاضر، به مطالعه عوامل جمعیتی و اقتصادی-اجتماعی موثر یر امید به آینده شغلی در شهر تهران می پردازد که در آن اطلاعات 1200 پاسخگو از طریق پرسشنامه محقق ساخته و نمونه گیری طبقه بندی چندمرحله ای با تخصیص متناسب در سال 1396 گردآوری و با استفاده از روش معادلات ساختاری تعمیم یافته تحلیل شدند. یافته ها نشان داد که زنان نسبت به مردان، غیرشاغلین نسبت به شاغلین و ساکنین مناطق کم برخوردار و نیمه برخوردار نسبت به سایر مناطق امید به آینده شغلی کمتری داشتند. با افزایش سن و احساس ناامنی روانی، امید به آینده شغلی کاهش و با افزایش تعداد سال های تحصیلی و اعتماد سازمانی امید به آینده شغلی افزایش می یابد. نتایج حاکی از آن بود که برآورده نشدن انتظارات شغلی پاسخگویان، بویژه زنان، غیرشاغلین، ساکنین مناطق کمتر برخوردار و افراد مسن منجر به دو قطبی شدن جامعه و شکل گیری شکاف های طبقاتی می شود. پیام سیاستی مطالعه حاضر این است که به منظور اشاعه و گسترش امید به آینده در بین شهروندان تهرانی باید از اثرگذاری مثبت متغیرهای سطح تحصیلی و اعتماد سازمانی، بویژه در بین ساکنین مناطق برخوردار، به عنوان فرصتی ارزشمند استفاده کرد.کلید واژگان: امید به آینده شغلی, اعتماد سازمانی, اعتماد عمومی, احساس ناامنی اقتصادی-اجتماعی, احساس ناامنی روانیWork hope, as one of the dimensions of social hope, can lead to the promotion of economic and social resilience in society. In order to investigate this index, the present article studies the demographic and socio-economic factors affecting work hope in Tehran. Data of 1200 respondents were collected through a questionnaire and multi-stage stratified sampling in 2017 and analyzed applying GSEM. Findings showed that women comparing to men, the unemployed compared to the employed and residents of less-developed and middle-developed areas comparing to developed and more developed areas had less work hope. By increasing age and psychological insecurity feeling, work hope decreases and by increasing number of educational years and organizational trust, work hope increases. the significant indirect effects of the number of children, the number of hours using Internet and the socio-economic insecurity feeling showed that increasing these variables reduces the work hope. The results also showed that failure to meet the job expectations of respondents, especially women, the unemployed, residents of less developed area and the elderly leads to polarization of society and formation of class divisions. The policy message of the present study is that in order to spread work hope among the citizens of Tehran, the positive impact of educational level and organizational trust variables, especially among residents of developed area should be used as a valuable opportunity.Keywords: work hope, Organizational trust, Public Trust, socio-economic insecurity feeling, psychological insecurity feeling
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امروزه دانشگاه ها در عرصه های متعددی از جمله ابعاد مدیریت دانشجویان در سطح ملی و بین المللی، با یکدیگر در رقابت هستند. این پژوهش قصد دارد به بررسی و طراحی مدل استراتژیک توسعه ی شایستگی های کارآفرینی دانشجویان دانشگاه علمی کاربردی بپردازد. هدف اصلی این مطالعه، طراحی الگوی استراتژیک توسعه شایستگی های کارآفرینانه دانشجویان دانشگاه جامع علمی کاربردی است. با توجه به ماهیت و اهداف تحقیق، برای پاسخ به سوالات پژوهش، نظریه پردازی و ارایه مدلی زمینه ای در مورد توسعه شایستگی های کارآفرینانه، روش تیوری داده بنیاد در دستور کار قرار گرفته است. استفاده از روش تیوری داده بنیاد می تواند هدف توسعه دانش کاربردی در حوزه شایستگی های کارآفرینانه را تحقق بخشد تا به تصمیم گیری های آتی کمک نماید. جامعه آماری پژوهش حاضر شامل مدیران عالی، مدیران میانی، کارشناس مسیول دانشگاه علمی کاربردی استان گیلان می باشد که طبق گزارش دانشگاه علمی کاربردی استان گیلان 20 نفر بودند. در این پژوهش، فرایند تحلیل داده ها با توجه به اهمیت آن در رویکرد نظریه زمینه ای طی سه مرحله کدگذاری صورت پذیرفته است. در پژوهش حاضر با تاکید بر رویکرد قابلیت های سازمانی، شایستگی های کارآفرینانه دانشجویان در سه مقوله اصلی استراتژی اشتیاق، استراتژی توانایی و استراتژی گرایش و هفت مقوله های فرعی شامل ارتباط با صنعت، بخش خصوصی، بخش مالی، زیرساخت ، ساختار بازار، سازماندهی و سیاست های وزارت علوم تدوین شد.
کلید واژگان: الگوی استراتژیک, کار آفرینی, شایستگی های کارآفرینانه, دانشگاه جامع علمی کاربردیToday, universities compete with each other in several areas, including the dimensions of student management at the national and international levels. This study intends to review and design a strategic model for the development of entrepreneurial competencies of students of the University of Applied Sciences. The main purpose of this study is to design a strategic model for the development of entrepreneurial competencies of students of the University of Applied Sciences. Due to the nature and objectives of the research, in order to answer the research questions, theorize and provide a background model for the development of entrepreneurial competencies, the data theory theory method of the foundation is on the agenda. Using the foundation data theory method can achieve the goal of developing applied knowledge in the field of entrepreneurial competencies to assist in future decisions. The statistical population of the present study includes senior managers, middle managers, experts in charge of Guilan University of Applied Sciences, which according to the report of Guilan University of Applied Sciences were 20 people. In this research, the data analysis process has been done during three coding stages due to its importance in the underlying theory approach. In the present study, with emphasis on organizational capabilities approach, students' entrepreneurial competencies in three main categories of passion strategy, ability strategy and orientation strategy and seven sub-categories including relationship with industry, private sector, financial sector, infrastructure, market structure , Organization and policies of the Ministry of Science were formulated.
Keywords: Strategic Model, Entrepreneurship, Entrepreneurial Competencies, Comprehensive University of Applied Sciences -
هدف
هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر، طراحی الگوی استراتژیک توسعه شایستگی های کارآفرینی دانشجویان دانشگاه جامع علمی کاربردی بود.
روش شناسی:
پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از نظر شیوه اجرا کیفی بود. جامعه پژوهش شامل خبرگان دانشگاهی دانشگاه علمی کاربردی استان گیلان در سال تحصیلی 400-1399 بودند که تعداد 17 نفر بر اساس روش اشباع نظری و به صورت هدفمند انتخاب شدند. ابزار پژوهش مصاحبه نیمه ساختاریافته بود که برای اعتبار یافته ها از استراتژی بازبینی مجدد توسط خود محقق و روایی صوری (اساتید دانشگاهی) و برای پایایی از ضریب توافق کدگذاری دو کدگذار استفاده شد که 89/0 به دست آمد. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها نیز کدگذاری به شیوه تحلیل مضمون در نرم افزار MAXQDA19 استفاده شد.
یافته ها:
یافته ها نشان داد که برای الگوی استراتژیک توسعه شایستگی های کارآفرینی دانشجویان 115 مضمون پایه، 12مضمون محوری و 3 مضمون انتخابی شناسایی شد؛ به طوری که مضامین انتخابی شامل استراتژی اشتیاق (سرمایه ریسک پذیر، نوآوری و رشد بالا)، توانایی (رقابت، جذب فناوری، سرمایه انسانی و فرصت های نوپا) و استراتژی گرایش (درک فرصت، ریسک پذیری، پشتیبانی فرهنگی، شبکه سازی و مهارت) بودند.
بحث و نتیجه گیری:
با توجه به نتایج می توان گفت برنامه ریزان نظام دانشگاهی از یک سو برای افزایش و توسعه شایستگی های کارآفرینانه دانشجویان باید به انگیزش و تشویق و رفع موانع مالی و ساختاری بپردازنند و از سوی دیگر، باید بر روی توانمندسازی کارآفرینان و زمینه های فرهنگی و اجتماعی کارآفرینی تمرکز کنند.
کلید واژگان: الگوی استراتژیک, شایستگی های کارآفرینانه, دانشگاه جامع علمی کاربردیPurposeThe main purpose of this research was to design a strategic model for the development of entrepreneurship competencies of students of the University of Applied Sciences.
MethodologyThe present study was applied in terms of the purpose and qualitative in terms of the research method employed. The research population included the academic experts of Gilan University of Applied Sciences in the academic year of 2020-21, 17 of whom were selected based on the theoretical saturation method and purposefully. The research tool was a semi-structured interview, which was used to validate the findings from the re-review strategy by the researcher and formal validity (university professors) and for reliability, the coding agreement coefficient of two coders was used, which was 0.89. For data analysis, coding using thematic analysis method was used in MAXQDA19 software.
FindingsThe findings showed that 115 initial themes, 12 central themes and 3 optional themes were identified for the strategic model of developing students' entrepreneurial competencies; So that the chosen themes included passion strategy (venture capital, innovation and high growth), ability (competition, technology absorption, human capital and new opportunities) and orientation strategy (opportunity understanding, risk-taking, cultural support, networking and skill).
ConclusionAccording to the results, it can be said that the planners of the university system, on the one hand, should motivate and encourage and remove financial and structural obstacles to increase and develop the entrepreneurial skills of students, and on the other hand, they should focus on empowering entrepreneurs and the cultural and social contexts of entrepreneurship
Keywords: Strategic Model, Entrepreneurial Competencies, Applied Scientific Comprehensive University -
BackgroundTotal fertility rate (TFR) in Iran decreased from the year 2000 and recently Iran has experienced fertility rates below replacement level. Birth interval is one of the most important determinants of fertility levels and plays a vital role in population growth rate. Due to the importance of this subject, the aim of this study was analyzing three birth intervals using three Survival Recurrent Event (SRE) models.Materials and MethodsIn a 2017 cross-sectional fertility survey in Tehran, 610 married women, age 15-49 years, were selected by multi-stage stratified random sampling and interviewed using a structured questionnaire. The effects of selected covariates on first, second and third birth intervals were fitted to the data using the Prentice-Williams- Peterson-Gap Time (PWP-GT) SRE model in SAS 9.4.ResultsCalendar-period had a significant effect on all three birth intervals (p <0.01). The Hazard Rate (HR) for a short birth interval for women in the most recent calendar-period (2007-2017) was lower than for the other calendarperiods. Women’s migration influenced second (P=0.044) and third birth intervals (P=0.031). The HR for both birth intervals in migrant women was 1.298 and 1.404 times shorter, respectively than non-migrant women. Women’s employment (P=0.008) and place of residence (p <0.05) also had significant effects on second birth interval; employed women and those living in developed, completely-developed and semi-developed areas, compared to unemployed women and those living in developing regions, had longer second birth intervals. Older age at marriage age increased the HR for a short third birth interval (p <0.01).ConclusionThe analysis of birth interval patterns using an appropriate statistical method provides important information for health policymakers. Based on the results of this study, younger women delayed their childbearing more than older women. Migrant women, unemployed women and women who live in developing regions gave birth to their second child sooner than non-migrant employed women, and women who lived in more developed regions. The implementation of policies which change the economic and social conditions of families could prevent increasing birth intervals and influence the fertility rate.Keywords: Birth Interval, Fertility, Survival analysis
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Since determination of factors influencieng childbearing delay can provide convenient approaches to prevent fertility decline, nowadays studying this issue is an important issue for demographers and it is also emphasized by planners and politicians. The aim of this study is to evaluate factors influencing first birth interval among 458, young Iranian married women in Tehran province. In this cross sectional study, stratified random sampling was used to collect data of a structured questioner in 2017. Women’s first birth interval was compared in confronting some demographic, socioeconomic and attitudinal factors by Kaplan-Meier estimates and Log-Rank test as non-parametric survival analysis tools. The mean of women’s first birth interval was 3.33±2.67 years with a median of 3.00 years. Kaplan-Meier estimates were significantly different between levels of women’s and their husband’s educational level, activity, and post materialism factor (p-value<0.05). Women with university education and who had husbands with university educational level had the largest first birth interval among all other educational levels. Employed women had longer first birth interval than unemployed ones. Women lived with employed husband had shorter first birth interval. High post materialism women had the largest first birth interval.Keywords: First birth intervals, Kaplan-Meier, Log-Rank test, Young women, Tehran, Iran
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Background
During the last decades, the average gap between attitudinal and behavioral youths’ marriage age has increased due to the changes in Iranian society and family patterns. This paper is devoted to studying this increment.
MethodsClassification and Regression Trees (CART) are applied for modeling the marriage age gap (MAG) of 12741 youths selected by a multi-stage cluster sampling method from 31 provinces in Iran.
ResultsClassification accuracies of fitted CART for females’ and males’ MAG were equal to .62 and .60, respectively. The most influential variables on females' and males' MAG were educational level and the number of siblings, respectively. Females with "university education," "diploma and less education with 5 and more siblings", and “employed diploma and less education with 3 or 4 siblings" married later than their desired time. Males with "3 and more siblings", "employed with 2 and fewer siblings and 3 and more ideal number of children", "employed university educated with 2 and fewer siblings and 1 or 2 ideal number of children", and " employed with 2 and fewer siblings and 1 or 2 ideal number of children with a diploma and less education and negative opinion towards childbearing" also married later than their desired time.
ConclusionIf the inevitable experience of modernity doesn’t combine with the convenient policy and the economic and socio-cultural conditions of the community don’t change, the negative consequences of such developments would be more than its positive achievements on different social issues especially and more importantly youth’s marriage age.
Keywords: Attitude, Decision Trees, Iran, Marriage, Youth -
Background
Fertility is one of the important subjects in public health and demographic studies which affects population growth. The main objective of this paper was to introduce and apply a tree model to classify the ideal number of children and children ever born in the study of "Marriage and Fertility Attitudes of Married 15-49 Years Old Women in Semnan Province in Iran, 2012".
MethodsClassification trees are data mining methods designed for categorical dependent variables, with prediction error measured in terms of misclassification cost to determine the form of the relationship between the response and predictor variables in different field of studies.
ResultsWe applied the Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm to present the merits of this algorithm to accurately classify the ideal number of children and children ever born of 405, 15-49-year-old married women in Semnan providence, Iran, according to some important predictor variables. Semnan is a province that is taking efficient steps toward development and modernization. Nowadays, it is considered as one of the developed provinces in Iran. In this province, changes in fertility attitudes and beliefs expected to be affected by modernization, industrialization, and urbanization.
ConclusionAs a result, the women’s children ever born in the younger birth cohorts and the ideal number of children in the older birth cohorts are much more similar. Women’s job status and age at first marriage are the two most important factors which have had significant effects on the desired and actual number of children in different birth cohorts.
Keywords: Fertility, Parity, Fertility Preferences, Data Mining, Classification Analysis -
Objectives
According to health surveys, population growth and total fertility rate (TFR) are decreasing in Iran. The economic and social factors in addition to the changing values and attitudes in the Iranian society have had a major impact on fertility decisions and the actions of families, especially women towards childbearing. This is an important issue for policymakers and many researchers in demography and public health thus the investigation of factors that affect low TFR is considered as a necessity.
Materials and MethodsThe classification and regression trees (CART) algorithm, as one of the most applicable classification trees, along with logistic regression was applied to model the tendency of 4898 women for childbearing in provinces with a TFR lower than the replacement level in Iran. The secondary data were then analysed by SPSS version 24.0.
ResultsBased on these two approaches, it was concluded that despite the CART algorithm, logistic regression suffers from some shortcomings including the difficult interpretation of three levels of interactions while not containing a specific method for handling the outliers. In addition, CART results demonstrated that women’s children ever born (CEB), age, and opinion had significant impacts on their desire to have a child. The groups encompassing “10-39-year-old women with CEB≤2” and “40-49-year-old women with positive attitudes towards childbearing” desired to have more children while “women with CEB ≥3” showed no tendency for childbearing.
ConclusionsIn general, the results revealed that adopting policies for changing women’s views on childbearing and creating the necessary resources for preventing the delays in marriage are regarded as important actions toward altering fertility rates. Another important conclusion is applying the CART algorithm as a convenient method for classifying demographical data.
Keywords: Fertility Preferences, Child, Women, Decision Trees, Logistic Regression -
Background and objectives
Application of statistical machine learning methods such as ensemble based approaches in survival analysis has been received considerable interest over the past decades in time-to-event data sets. One of these practical methods is survival forests which have been developed in a variety of contexts due to their high precision, non-parametric and non-linear nature. This article aims to evaluate the performance of survival forests by comparing them with Cox-proportional hazards (CPH) model in studying first birth interval (FBI).
MethodsA cross sectional study in 2017 was conducted by the stratified random sampling and a structured questionnaire to gather the information of 610, 15-49-year-old married women in Tehran. Considering some influential covariates on FBI, random survival forest (RSF) and conditional inference forest (CIF) were constructed by bootstrap sampling method (1000 trees) using R-language packages. Then, the best model is used to identify important predictors of FBI by variable importance (VIMP) and minimal depth measures.
ResultsAccording to prediction accuracy results by out-of-bag (OOB) C-index and integrated Brier score (IBS), RSF outperforms CPH and CIF in analyzing FBI (C-index of 0.754 for RSF vs 0.688 for CIF and 0.524 for CPH and IBS of 0.076 for RSF vs 0.086 for CIF and 0.107 for CPH). Woman’s age was the most important predictor on FBI.
ConclusionsApplying suitable method in analyzing FBI assures the results which be used for making policies to overcome decrement in total fertility rate.
Keywords: Survival Analysis, Machine Learning, Cox-proportional hazards model, First Birth Intervals -
Socio-economic factors, in addition to value and attitude changes, have had a major impact on fertility behavior of women toward childbearing. The main purpose of this study is to investigate childbearing desire of 6183 women in provinces with total fertility rate (TFR) lower (TFR ≤ 2) and upper (TFR > 2) than replacement level by classification and regression trees (CART) algorithm, as one of the most applicable classification trees. In this study women’s job, place of residence, age, opinion, marriage age, educational level, and children ever born were investigated as predictors. The accuracy of fitted classification trees for CD in provinces with TFR ≤ 2 and TFR > 2 were 0.68 and 0.72, respectively. As a result, women’s children ever born and age had significant roles on their desire to have a child in all provinces while their opinion toward childbearing had just effect on provinces with TFR ≤ 2. In provinces with TFR ≤ 2, 10 - 39 years old women with 2 children and less CEB were willing to have another child. Women with 2 or less children at the age of 10 - 29 as well as women with 3 or more than 3 children at the age of 20 - 29 had a desire for more children in provinces with TFR > 2. If the women have a positive attitude toward childbearing and their age is not high, they will desire to give birth to a child until they reach the ideal number of their children. Thus, policies in changing their attitudes toward childbearing and creating the necessary facilities to prevent delays in marriage could be an important step in changing fertility rates.Keywords: Total Fertility Rate, Childbearing Desire, Classification, Regression Trees (CART)
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Background & aimDemands for more children have substantial effects on couple’s fertility behaviors. The ideal number of children for most Iranian’s family is two, so that it is reasonable to study which factors determine women’s decision to have a third child. The main aim of this study was to examine factors affecting the demand for a third child (DTC).MethodsThis cross-sectional study was conducted on 6231 Iranian married women from all provinces during autumn 2014. Participants in the study were selected by multistage stratified sampling method. A structured questionnaire was employed to collect the related data. Finally, the analysis included 2272 DTC questionnaires for women with two children by applying a classification tree model.ResultsIn this study,50.7% of women with two children had no desire for having the third child, out of whom 71.1% (79) were living in the provinces with total fertility rate (TFR) less than 2 and in urban areas, respectively. Most of them with the educational level of diploma or lower (78.2%) had a negative opinion about having the third child (36.1%). Based on the classification and regression tree algorithm, women who were interested in having their third child in provinces with TFR more than 2 included rural women, urban women with positive opinion toward childbearing, and those with educational level of secondary school. However, women who were keen on having their third child in provinces with TFR less than 2 consisted of urban women aged 30-49 with educational level of high school or lower, those younger than 30 years with positive opinion who married in their 20-29, rural women aged less than 30, and rural women aged 30-49 with positive opinion who married in their 20-39.ConclusionWomen’s place of residence and opinion toward childbearing had important effects on their DTC. However, women’s educational level as well as their age and marriage age could affect their DTC in provinces with TFR less than 2 compared to other provinces.Keywords: Fertility Behavior, Fertility Determinants, Child, Women, Decision Trees
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A set of economic and social rules and regulations as well as cultural factors influence value of children; however, this value itself could alter fertility behaviors. The present study aimed at investigating the influence of the value of children on fertility behavior through considering the impact of its attitudinal factors on childbearing desire, as one of the most important dimensions of fertility behavior. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 6231 females from 31 provinces of Iran, admitted to public health and treatment centers to vaccinate their children, during year 2014. The data collection tool was a questionnaire, including three value of children dimensions, including cultural (five items), social (seven items), and economic (four items) factors, and also demographic and attitudinal questions. Data were analyzed using SPSS-17 software and the factors influencing childbearing desire (CD) were examined by four SEMs for four age groups in AMOS-22. Goodness of fit models was confirmed by five fit indices. Only cultural factors had a significant direct effect on CD for 30 to 39 and 40 to 49 year-old females (P-values = 0.027, and < 0.001, respectively). Thus, planners and policy makers should consider changes in the cultural value of children to implement successful policies to alter the current decreasing trend of fertility rate.Keywords: Childbearing, Decision-Making, Fertility Determinants, Women
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International Journal of Women’s Health and Reproduction Sciences, Volume:6 Issue: 3, Summer 2018, PP 290 -296ObjectivesOne of the features of fertility below replacement level is the increase of the first birth interval which has occurred at the same time with the rise of womens marriage age in recent years in Iran. Since determination of factors affecting delay in childbearing can provide convenient approaches to prevent fertility decline, the aim of this study was to evaluate socio-economic factors influencing the first birth interval in married women in Tehran province, Iran.Materials And MethodsIn a cross-sectional study, 610 married women aged 15 to 49 years were selected by the stratified random sampling and a structured questionnaire was used in 2017. Womens first birth intervals were compared in terms of some demographic and socio-economic factors by Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimates and Log-Rank test for univariate and Cox model for multivariate survival analysis using SPSS version 22.0.ResultsThe mean of womens first birth intervals was 3.181±0.101 years. Womens educational level and social insecurity had significant effects on the first birth interval (P valueConclusionsAccording to results, unless governments provide the condition of social security, reducing the interval between marriage age and childbearing will not be attained.Keywords: First birth intervals, Kaplan, Meier estimates, Cox model, Tehran, Iran
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مقدمهرخداد تحولات سریع اجتماعی، اقتصادی و فرهنگی به همراه پیامدهای خواسته یا ناخواسته آنان، در دهه های اخیر زمینه بروز و گسترش آسیب های اجتماعی چون پدیده کودکان خیابانی را در کلان شهرها فراهم کرده است. روش های نمونه گیری احتمالی و غیراحتمالی که همواره برای مطالعه این کودکان مورد استفاده قرار می گیرند، به ترتیب با مشکلات خطای پوشش و نامعتبر بودن استنباط های آماری مواجه هستند.مواد و روش کارنمونه گیری پاسخگو محور به عنوان روشی کارا جهت نفوذ به لایه های پنهان و با دسترسی سخت در جمعیت هدف ارائه شد. هدف اصلی این مقاله، معرفی این روش نمونه گیری، محاسبه برآوردهای نااریب نسبت جمعیت و همچنین بررسی کارایی آن در مطالعه کودکان خیابانی تیرانای آلبانی در سال 2010 میلادی بودیافته هاطبق نتایج به دست آمده، موفقیت روش نمونه گیری پاسخگو محور در بررسی کودکان خیابانی به دانستن اندازه شبکه های اجتماعی دقیق این کودکان، در دسترس بون ستادهای آمارگیری برای آنان، رسیدن به تعادل در مورد متغیرهای مورد مطالعه و انتخاب مشوق های مناسب بستگی دارد.بحث و نتیجه گیریدستیابی به یافته های دقیق از کودکان کار بدون در اختیار داشتن نمونه معرف از آنان امکان پذیر نخواهد بود. این مهم در صورتی محقق می گردد که پژوهشگران از روش های نمونه گیری کارا و موثر برای بررسی این جوامع مانند نمونه گیری پاسخگو محور استفاده نمایند.کلید واژگان: جوامع پنهان, کودکان خیابانی, روش نمونه گیری صید باز صید, روش نمونه گیری گلوله برفی, روش نمونه گیری پاسخگو محورPayesh, Volume:17 Issue: 3, 2018, PP 239 -248Objective(s)Rapid social, economic and cultural changes along with intentionally or unintentionally consequences has provided the incidence and spread of social pathologies such as street children in large cities. Probability and non-probability sampling methods that are used to study this data are faced many problems such as coverage error and invalid statistical inferences, respectively.MethodsRespondent driven sampling method is an effective method to penetrate the hidden and hard to reach layers of the target population. The main objective of this paper was to introduce this method, obtain unbiased proportion estimates, as well as evaluate effectiveness of this method in a study of street children in Tirana, Albania (2010).ResultsAccording to the results of this survey, success of respondent driven sampling method for studying street children lies on knowing the exact size of social networks for these children, availability of survey sites, reaching to equilibrium in interested variables and selecting appropriate incentives.ConclusionAccomplishing accurate findings of street children without the presence of a representative sample would not be possible and it would not be achieved unless researchers use effective sampling methods to study these populations. Indeed driven sampling is recommended.Keywords: Hidden Populations, Street Children, Capture Recapture Sampling Method, Snowball Sampling Method, Respondent Driven Sampling Method
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Background and AimDespite the success of family planning programs in Iran in the recent decades, considerable proportions of pregnancies are still unintended and can be a cause of poor mental and physical health of the mother and child. The aim of this study was to investigate some important factors affecting uplanned pregnancies among married women in Semnan province, one of the developed provinces of Iran with below replacement fertility level.MethodsThe data for this study were drawn from a cross-sectional survey conducted in Semnan province in 2014. A total of 363 married women within the age range of 15-49 years who were pregnant or had the history of at least one delivery were considered. The study sample was selected using multi-stage stratified sampling method. The data were collected using a self-structured questionnaire with 90 items and Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.88. Data analysis was performed in SPSS (version 20) using Crammers V coefficients and Chi-square tests. Logistic regression analysis was also applied to model the risk of unintended pregnancies based on selected covariates.ResultsAccording to the results, around 18.2% of the pregnancies were unplanned, 7.7% and 10.5% of which were mistimed and unwanted, respectively. Based on the logistic regression analysis, birth cohort, number of children ever born, and contraceptive methods had significant effects on the risk of unintended pregnancies. Furthermore, about 48% of the women experiencing unintended pregnancy were using a traditional contraceptive method before or at the time of the conception.ConclusionAs the findings indicated, the women who used contraceptive method, as well as those with higher number of children and younger birth cohorts had higher risk of unplanned pregnancies. It should be noted that the majority of unplanned pregnancies among the women in younger birth cohort were mistimed pregnancies. So it is recommended to continue offering family planning and health services to these women in order to prevent unplanned pregnancy, unsafe abortion, and many chronic diseases.Keywords: Contraceptive use, Low fertility, Unplanned pregnancies, Unwanted pregnancies
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BackgroundEarly and delayed marriage has their own effects on mothers and their children's health and social dimensions. Nowadays, Iran experiences delayed marriage due to several factors; thus, the present study was concocted to investigate the factors affecting youths marriage age, and to compare these factors between males and females.MethodsTo study demographic, socio-economical, and some atitudinal behavior factors affecting the age of marriage, in the current cross-sectional study, 12741 Iranian pre-married youths including 6381 males and 6360 females from all provinces were selected using multi-stage stratified method and the data was collected using a structured questionnaire in 2014. The questionnaire included demographic, socio-economical, and some atitudinal behavior questions about childbearing. Kaplan-Meier, Log-Rank test, and parametric survival analysis were applied in IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, Version 22.0., and SAS 9.3 software.ResultsGamma and Log Logistic parametric models were the best fitted models for females and males marriage age, respectively. Females and males who lived in provinces with TFRConclusionYoung females and males had the same factors influencing their marriage age.Keywords: Faculty, Iran, Universities
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BackgroundSocio-economic factors, following psychological factors, affect the value of children in parents view and this value itself could influence Ideal Number of Children (INC), which is one of the most important dimensions of fertility behavior. The aim of the present study was to investigate parents INC according to the factors influencing the value of children from the viewpoint of men and women, separately.
MethodsIn a cross-sectional study, multi-stage stratified sampling method was conducted to collect data from 590 males and 610 females in Tehran province, Iran, using a questionnaire including demographic and attitudinal questions. To describe data, SPSS-17, and to examine the factors influencing INC, path analysis was used in AMOS 22 and Goodness of fitted model was approved using the relative chi-square ( , Goodness of Fit Index (GFI), Adjusted GFI (AGFI), and Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) indices.
ResultsIndices of Goodness of fit confirmed the fitted models ( =2.289, GFI=0.994, AGFI=0.973, and RMSEA=0.047 for males model and =0.511, GFI=0.989, AGFI=0.994, and RMSEA=0.020 for females model). Negative psychological (males coefficient=-0.20 and females coefficient=-0.17, PConclusionAccording to the results of the present study, significant factors influencing INC of males and females were negative psychological and positive economic factors of the value of children and the negative social factor of value of children was the only significant factor influencing INC for males.Keywords: Child, Fertility, Parents, Psychological -
مقدمهدر بسیاری از مطالعات پزشکی و اپیدمیولوژی هر فرد تحت شرایطی می تواند وقایعی را چندین بار، یکی پس از دیگری و به صورت متوالی تجربه نماید که آن ها را وقایع بازگشتی می نامند. اهداف وسیع تحلیل این گونه وقایع می تواند شامل توصیف فرآیند رخداد واقعه در افراد، پراکندگی وقایع از فردی به فرد دیگر و رابطه بین متغیرهای پیش بین ثابت یا وابسته به زمان با زمان رخداد واقعه باشد. از این رو، هدف اصلی این مقاله ارائه و تفسیر مدل های پیشرفته آماری به منظور تحلیل درست این وقایع بود که در سال های اخیر پیشنهاد شده اند.مواد و روش کاردر این مقاله، برای مدلسازی وقایع بازگشتی روش های تصحیح واریانس که شامل مدل های AG، شرطی PWP (PWP-TT و PWP-GT) و مدل حاشیه ای WLW هستند، ارائه و با یکدیگر مقایسه شده اند.یافته هااغلب، مدل های شرطی PWP زمانی کاربرد دارند که تعداد وقایع کمی برای هر فرد رخ دهد و مخاطره رخداد مجدد واقعه میان رخداد های مختلف تغییر نماید. در حالی که مدل حاشیه ای WLW و مدل AG با پیش بین های وابسته به زمان، برای تعیین فراوانی وقایع به کار می روند.بحث و نتیجه گیریمحققان حوزه پزشکی و اپیدمیولوژی برای انتخاب صحیح مدل های بازگشتی باید به عوامل مختلفی از جمله تعداد وقایع، ارتباط میان وقایع، متغیر بودن اثر عوامل از واقعه ای به واقعه دیگر، فرایند بیولوژیکی و ساختار همبستگی داده ها توجه نمایند.کلید واژگان: وقایع بازگشتی, مدل های بازگشتی, مدل AG, مدل حاشیه ای WLW, مدل شرطی PWPObjective(s)In many medical and epidemiological studies, each person can experience several events one after the other sequentially under some circumstances, known as recurrence events. Broad analytical objectives of recurrent events consist of describing event process in an individual, dispersion of events from one person to another, and determination of relations between constant or time-dependent predictors with event time. So the main purpose of this article is to present and interpret advanced statistical models to analyze such events which have been proposed in recent years.MethodsIn this article, variance-corrected models including AG, conditional PWP (PWP-TT and PWP-GT) and marginal WLW models for analyzing recurrent events are presented and compared with each other.ResultsWhen the number of events for each individual are small and the risk of a reoccurrence of an event varies between different events, usually conditional PWP models are used, while marginal WLW and the time-dependent AG models are applied to determine frequency of events.ConclusionMedical and epidemiology studies should consider various factors such as the number of events, relationship between events, the variability of the effect of factors from one event to another, the biological process, and the correlation structure of data to select the valid recurrent models.Keywords: Recurrent events, AG model, Conditional PWP model, Marginal WLW model
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با توجه به ضرورت و اهمیت وجود آب به عنوان یک منبع حیاتبخش و به دلیل افزایش جمعیت و نیاز روزافزون به این منبع، تامین آب مورد نیاز برای مصرف شرب، کشاورزی و صنعت یکی از دغدغه های جهان امروز محسوب می شود. کارست را می توان منبع مناسبی برای تامین آب در نظر گرفت .مطالعات و پژوهش های منابع آب کارستیک، به علت محدودیت منابع آبرفتی از نظر کیفی و کمی و به علت گسترش وسیع سازندهای کارستی در سطح کشور، از اهمیت ویژه ای برخوردار است. منطقه آهکی خورین، در شمال غرب شهر کرمانشاه قرار دارد. عمده آب سکونتگاه های اطراف این منطقه و تالاب هشیلان را چشمه ها، سراب ها و آبخوان های کارستی این کوهستان تامین می کنند. در این پژوهش، با استفاده از الگویFuzzy Logic/AHP و به کارگیری هشت معیار موثر، نقشه پهنه بندی پتانسیل منابع آب کارست منطقه تهیه شده است. سپس برای حصول اطمینان از پهنه های به دست آمده، این پهنه ها با عملیات میدانی و روش های ژئوفیزیکی ارزیابی شده اند. نتایج نقشه تهیه شده با الگوی منطق فازی نشان داد که دامنه جنوبی کوه خورین و اطراف تالاب هشیلان، نسبت به دامنه شمالی آن دارای قابلیت نفوذ و پتانسیل منابع آب کارستی بیشتری است. برای صحت سنجی این امر، عملیات صحرایی و برداشت داده ها به روش سونداژ الکتریکی قائم در دو پروفیل جداگانه، در دامنه جنوبی و شمالی کوه خورین انجام شد. وجود منبع آبی غنی، با کیفیت مناسب در بخش میانی مقطع دامنه جنوبی و نبود منابع آب، با کمیت و کیفیت مناسب در دامنه شمالی، صحت نتایج پهنه بندی الگوی Fuzzy Logic/AHP را تایید کرد.کلید واژگان: آب زیرزمینی کارست, الگویFuzzy Logic, AHP, ژئوفیزیک, کرمانشاه, GISConsidering the necessity and importance of the existence of water as a living resource, and at the same time, increasing population and the growing need for this source, providing water for drinking, agricultural and industrial purposes is one of the serious challenges in todays world. The Karst can be a good source for water supply. The studies and researches of Karst water resources, due to limited alluvial resources in terms of quality and quantity and due to the wide expansion karst formations in the country, have particular importance. Khorin limestone is located in the northwest of Kermanshah city, where the main waters of the settlements around this area and the Hashilan lagoon are provided by the springs, Mirage and karst aquifers of this mountain. Therefore, in this study using the Fuzzy Logic / AHP model and employing eight effective criteria, the zoning map of potential Karst water resources of region was prepared. Then, to ensure the obtained areas, they were evaluated by field operations and geophysical methods. The results of the plot prepared with the fuzzy logic model showed that the southern ridge of Khorin and around the Hashilan lagoon had the capability and the potential of more Karst water resources. In order to validate this work, field operations and data collection was performed by vertical electrical sounding method in two separate profiles in the southern and northern slopes of the Khorin Mountain. The presence of a rich source of high quality water in the middle section of the southern slope and the lack of water resources in the northern slope confirmed the accuracy of the zoning results by the Fuzzy Logic / AHP model.Keywords: Karst Groundwater, Fuzzy Logic, AHP Model, Geophysics, Kermanshah, GIS
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مقدمهروش نمونه گیری پاسخگو محور نزدیک به دو دهه پیش برای نمونه گیری از جمعیت های پنهان به ویژه جمعیت هایی که در معرض بیماری های پرخطریکه سلامت جامعه را به مخاطره می اندازند، معرفی شد. لذا مطالعه حاضر با هدف تعیین عوامل موثر در طراحی روش نمونه گیری از جمعیت های پنهان در معرض بیماری های پرخطر انجام پذیرفت.روش کاردر این مطالعه مروری، ضمن معرفی اجمالی روش نمونه گیری پاسخگو محور، به مرور 11 طرحی که از این روش برای بررسی جمعیت های پنهان در آن ها استفاده شده است، پرداخته شد. همچنین، نکات در نظر گرفته شده در خصوص مهمترین عوامل موثر در طراحی این روش که شامل ارزیابی بنیادی و انتخاب هسته ها می باشند، نیز بررسی شدند.یافته هانتایج نشان داد که اگر اهداف اصلی اجرای ارزیابی بنیادی و انتخاب هسته ها محقق نشود، برآورد پارامترهای جمعیت پنهان با مقادیر واقعی آن اختلاف خواهند داشت و اریبی هایی مانند عدم تشکیل زنجیره های عضوگیری طولانی، عدم اعتماد به اندازه شبکه اجتماعی افراد و کندی روند عضوگیری برای طرح بوجود خواهد آمد.نتیجه گیریبدون در نظر گرفتن نکات موثر در طراحی روش نمونه گیری پاسخگو محور، این روش در نمونه گیری از جمعیت های پنهان کارا نخواهد بود. پیشنهاد می شود که پژوهشگران قبل از استفاده از این روش نمونه گیری، به منظور تضمین حصول به موفقیت در نفوذ به جمعیت های پنهان هدف، این ملاحظات را مد نظر قرار دهند.کلید واژگان: جمعیت های پنهان, بیماری های پرخطر, روش نمونه گیری, طراحی پژوهشIntroductionAround two decades ago, the Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) method was introduced to sample hidden populations especially those exposed to high risk diseases. This study is aimed to determine factors affecting the design of sampling method for hidden populations exposed to high risk diseases.MethodsIn this review article, in addition to introducing the RDS method, 11 surveys that employed this method to study hidden populations are reviewed. Consequently, the key points that should be considered in designing this method including formative assessment and seeds selection are studied.ResultsResults indicated that if the main purpose of a formative assessment and seeds selection does not achieve the hidden population parameter estimates will differ actual values and the survey would counter some biases. Uncertainty of recruiters degree, not-forming long recruitment chains, and slowly recruiting of recruiters could be the most important of these biases.ConclusionsWithout paying attention to the influential considerations in designing RDS method, this method in sampling hidden populations will not be applicable. It is recommended that researchers in order to guarantee the successful penetrating to the target hidden population, consider the key influential points RDS method in advance.Keywords: Hidden Population, High Risk Disease, Sampling Method, Research Design
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نشریه بررسی های آمار رسمی ایران، سال بیست و هفتم شماره 2 (پیاپی 89، پاییز و زمستان 1395)، صص 145 -166
بسیاری از جمعیت هایی که بیش تر در کانون توجه سیاست گذاران قرار دارند، جمعیت های پنهان و یا با دسترسی سخت هستند که از افرادی با شرایط خاص مانند بیماران مبتلا به عفونت اچ ای وی تشکیل شده اند. مطالعه ی دقیق این جمعیت ها به منظور شناسایی آنان از این رو که سلامت جامعه را به دلیل داشتن رفتارهای پرخطر به مخاطره می اندازند، بسیار با اهمیت است. به این منظور یافتن روش نمونه گیری معتبر و قابل اعتماد از این جمعیت ها نیز بسیار ضروری می نماید. استفاده از روش های نمونه گیری مرسوم برای نمونه گیری از این جمعیت ها از آن جا که به ندرت فهرست یا چارچوب نمونه گیری برای آنان وجود دارد، روشی عملی نیست و این روش ها با خطای پوشانشی همراه هستند. روش های نمونه گیری نااحتمالی چون روش نمونه گیری ارجاع زنجیری نیز از نظر آماری براوردهای معتبری را تولید نمی کنند. یکی از روش های معتبر برای نمونه گیری از این جمعیت ها، روش نمونه گیری پاسخ گومحور است. در این روش نمونه گیری یکی از مهم ترین منبع های ایجاد خطاهای غیرنمونه گیری، اریبی حاصل از هومافیلی است. برای بررسی اعتبار نمونه های حاصل از این روش نمونه گیری، در این مقاله هومافیلی که ابزاری برای ارزیابی سطح اریبی و همچنین معرف بودن نمونه ها است، معرفی می شود. هدف اصلی این مقاله بررسی پیامدهای ناشی از هومافیلی در تولید براوردهای نااریب در این روش نمونه گیری است.
کلید واژگان: نمونه گیری پاسخ گومحور, اریبی, هومافیلی, اندازه ی شبکه ی اجتماعی, تعادلMany populations which are in the most focus of policy-makers are hidden or hard to reach populations that are formed by people with certain condition such as HIV infection. A careful study of these populations in order to their identification is very important, since their high risk behavior jeopardizes public health. Thus, defining a reliable and valid sampling method of them is also very vital. Applying conventional sampling methods (probability) to take samples from these populations since there is rarely a list or sampling frame of them are not practical and these methods are associated with coverage error. Non-probability sampling methods such as chain referral sampling also do not produce statistically valid estimates. One of the valid methods to take samples from these populations is respondent driven sampling method. In this sampling method, one of the most important sources of non-sampling errors is the bias which results from homophily. To check the validity of samples taken from this sampling method, in this article homophily is introduced which is a tool to assess the level of bias and the representative of samples. The main objective of this article is to examine the consequences of homophily in the production of unbiased estimators in this sampling method.
Keywords: Respondent driven sampling, bias, Homophily, degree, equilibrium -
مقدمهازآن جا که سلامت جامعه در اثر بروز بیماری های پرخطر با مخاطره همراه می باشد، همواره جمعیت های در معرض این بیماری ها به خصوص جمعیت های پنهان، مورد توجه پژوهشگران و سیاست گذاران بهداشت عمومی قرار دارند.روشروش های متداولی که برای نمونه گیری و محاسبه برآورد نسبت این جمعیت ها مورد استفاده محققان قرار می گیرد، اغلب منجر به کم یا بیش برآوردی این نسبت ها در جمعیت های مورد مطالعه می گردد. با وجود معرفی روش های نمونه گیری کارایی همچون روش نمونه گیری پاسخگو محور از بیش از دو دهه پیش تاکنون، اما به دلیل عدم آشنایی پژوهشگران این حوزه با نحوه محاسبه برآوردها در نمونه های به دست آمده از این روش، کمتر از آن در برآورد نسبت جمعیت های پنهان استفاده می گردد. هدف از انجام مطالعه حاضر، معرفی برآوردهای نسبت های جمعیتی برای متغیرهای کیفی مانند ابتلا به بیماری، با استفاده از برآوردهای احتمال روابط درون و برون گروهی و اندازه شبکه اجتماعی پاسخگویان بود.یافته هاتئوری های موجود و شبیه سازی های رایانه ای نشان داد که برآوردهای معرفی شده برای نسبت جمعیت های پنهان، به طور مجانبی نااریب بودند و نرخ همگرایی بالایی داشتند.نتیجه گیریعدم انتخاب صحیح روش نمونه گیری و همچنین، محاسبه برآورد نسبت جمعیت های پنهان که در معرض بیماری های پرخطر هستند و در سیاست گذاری های بهداشتی تاثیرگذار می باشند، نتایج قابل قبولی در رسیدن به اهداف این سیاستگذاری ها ارایه نخواهد داد.کلید واژگان: جمعیت های پنهان در معرض بیماری های پرخطر, روش نمونه گیری پاسخگو محور, برآوردهای نااریب مجانبی, متغیرهای کیفیBackgroundSince society health is endanger of high risk diseases, always populations exposing these diseases especially hidden populations are considered by researchers and policy makers in the field of public health. Conventional methods that are used by researchers for sampling and also computing estimation of population proportions, often lead to under or over estimations of these proportions in the interested populations. Despite the introduction of efficient sampling methods such as respondent driven sampling method for more than two decades ago, due to unfamiliarity of researchers in this field to the technique of calculating estimations for samples in this method, this sampling method is applied less for estimating proportions of hidden populations.MethodsThe main objective of current article is to identify estimators of population proportions for qualitative variables such as catching disease by the usage of estimating probability of inter- and cross-relationships, and social network size of respondents.
Findings: Existing theories and computer simulations have shown that estimators introduced for population proportions are asymptotically unbiased and have high rate of convergence.ConclusionDue to the lack of proper selection of sampling method and also computing method for estimating proportions of hidden populations, that generally exposing high risk diseases and are effective in health policies, acceptable results in achieving the objectives of this policy will not provide.Keywords: Hidden populations exposing high risk diseases, Respondent driven sampling method, Asymptotically unbiased Estimators, Qualitative variables
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