behzad salmani

This article mainly investigates the spillover effects of trade partners' uncertainty on the amount of Iran's exports and imports from 2000 to 2020. In this regard, the GVAR global vector autoregression model has been used to show the simultaneous impact of multi-country shocks and global shocks. The results of this research show that the value of Iran's exports and imports reacts negatively to uncertainty shocks from major trading partners, so the three countries (China, India, and Turkey) have the most negative spillover on Iran's trade value. The results also showed that the uncertainty of the following five trading partners (United Arab Emirates, Russia, South Korea, Italy, Germany, and Switzerland) does not have a significant spillover on Iran's trade. At the same time, Iran's exports and imports reacted negatively to the increase in Iran's internal uncertainty. Hence, public and private policymakers should expand their trade relations to develop exports and reduce the effects of other countries' uncertainty.

The main objective of the present study is to investigate the international spillover effect of US monetary policies on bank lending for 34 upper-middle-income countries during the period of 2000-2021. For this purpose, Panel Smooth Transition Regression model (PSTR) method has been used to estimate the model of this research. Based on the estimation results, the model includes two regimes and its transition variable is the monetary policy rate of the United States, which is not significant in the first regime and is negative and significant in the second regime. So, with the reduction of interest rates and the implementation of expansionary monetary policies in the United States, the lending rate in the studied countries increases; and vice versa. Based on the results obtained and the lack of independence of monetary policies in the studied countries, it is recommended that the countries make their internal economic conditions more stable than the external conditions with targeted policies and somehow secure their economy against external shocks.

One of the most important topics in the capital market is understanding the level of risk, which can affect the return on company stocks and play a significant role in decision-making. In this regard, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) has been introduced and attracted the attention of researchers. These models are influenced by various internal company factors and macroeconomic variables. However, one variable that has a close relationship with financial markets is blockchain technology. Therefore, this study examines the impact of blockchain technology on overall risk volatility in 84 selected companies listed on the country's stock exchange from April 2011 to August 2021, using a system generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. The study results show that the spillover effects of market value, blockchain technology, economic growth, exchange rates, and oil prices on overall risk are positive, while the effects of return on assets, financial companies, research and development costs, and inflation rates on overall risk are negative.

Determining the factors affecting stock market turmoil and risk with the development of capital asset pricing models has been considered by researchers. One of the variables that is closely related to financial markets is blockchain technology. Blockchain is a new technology in the field of secure computers. This technology can transform the digital world and, using distributed distribution features for each online transaction, execute transactions in such a way that assets can be identified in the future without compromising the privacy, security of assets and parties involved. It is done in the transaction. the present study investigates the blockchain technology overflow on the fluctuations of fluctuations of 84 selected companies in the stock market of the country during April 2011 to August 2021 using system generalized method of moments. The Iranian stock market has not been immune from the spillovers of this crisis. The results of the study show that market share, rate of return on assets have a positive effect on the spillower of fluctuations and blockchain technology, research and development have negative effects on spillover. All variables are statistically significant at the level of one percent confidence. Determining the factors affecting stock market turmoil and risk with the development of capital asset pricing models has been considered by researchers. One of the variables that is closely related to financial markets is blockchain technology. Blockchain is a new technology in the field of secure computers. This technology can transform the digital world and, using distributed distribution features for each online transaction, execute transactions in such a way that assets can be identified in the future without compromising the privacy, security of assets and parties involved. It is done in the transaction. the present study investigates the blockchain technology overflow on the fluctuations of fluctuations of 84 selected companies in the stock market of the country during April 2011 to August 2021 using system generalized method of moments. The Iranian stock market has not been immune from the spillovers of this crisis. The results of the study show that market share, rate of return on assets have a positive effect on the spillower of fluctuations and blockchain technology, research and development have negative effects on spillover. All variables are statistically significant at the level of one percent confidence.

This study aimed to compare health beliefs and obsessive-compulsive symptoms (OCS) in families with (FIM+) or without an infected member (FIM–) two years after the beginning of COVID-19. Additionally, this research intended to predict a decrease in OCS from baseline (T1) to 40 days later (T2) based on health beliefs.

In a longitudinal survey, 227 participants in two groups, including FIM+ (n = 98; M = 30.44; SD = 5.39) and FIM– (n = 129; M = 29.24; SD = 4.93), were selected through purposive sampling. They responded to measurements consisting of demographic characteristics, the Obsessive-Compulsive Inventory-Revised (OCI-R), Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R), and COVID-19 Health Belief Questionnaire (COVID-19-HBQ) at the final assessment phase (T2). To investigate differences between the two groups and predict OCS changes from T1 to T2, data were analyzed using Chi-squared, t-tests, U-Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis, Pearson correlations, and linear regression analyses.

At T1, FIM+ demonstrated significantly greater OCS, health beliefs, posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTS), and depressive symptoms than FIM–. Furthermore, FIM+ showed a decrease in OCS from T1 to T2 after its infected member recovered from COVID-19 (P < 0.001). A decrease in OCS was correlated with a decrease in perceived susceptibility, severity, and barriers. Lack of a vulnerable family member, lower educational attainment, and being a primary caregiver were associated with a greater decrease in OCS. Changes in perceived severity and self-efficacy accounted for 17% of variation in OCS.

Even two years after the onset of the pandemic, COVID-19 not only impacts the life of patients with COVID-19 but family members who care for such patients respond to the disease by engaging in excessive health behaviors in the form of OCS.

Determining the factors affecting the volatility and risk of the stock market by expanding the pricing models of capital assets has been the focus of researchers. One of the variables that has a close relationship with financial markets is block chain technology. Therefore, the present study investigated the effect of block chain technology on total and systematic risk volatility in 84 selected companies of the Iran`s stock market during April 2010 to August 2014 using Vector error correction model. The results of the study show that the systematic risk function in the first period has a positive reaction to the changes in blockchain technology, but after the second period, the impact of blockchain technology shocks on the systematic risk of companies has been positive with a constant slope. Also, since the first period, the total risk function has had a positive reaction to the changes in blockchain technology with an upward slope. Systematic risk and total risk functions have also reacted positively to the shocks of the companies' market share and the company's rate of return. The results of the variance analysis of the total risk and systematic risk functions show that in the systematic risk function, according to the asset return rate, blockchain technology and market share had the greatest effect on the changes in the risk function, and in the risk function, according to the market share, asset return rate and Block chain technology has had the greatest effect on the changes of the mentioned risk function.

The main purpose of this study is to identify the determinants of banking crisis losses for 49 sample countries over the period 1980-2019. In this regard, two sub-purposes are pursued. In the first preliminary step, we identify and date episodes of banking crises for 49 countries. The graphical analysis of crises showed that about half of the crises were occurred between 2008-2012 in which the share of high-income countries was higher than other country groups. Then, in the second preliminary step, we used the Hodrick-Prescott filter to extract different trends from countries' GDPs to calculate four alternative measures of real output losses. The investigated output losses showed that Angola and Greece had the highest and lowest losses among the four types of losses, respectively. Finally, to achieve the main purpose, we use the Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood (PPML) method to estimate model. The model was estimated without and with currency crisis variable. Our findings show the occurrence of a currency crisis is effective in intensifying output losses following banking crises. Also, the variables of inflation, bank credit to GDP, credit-to-GDP gap, public debt/GDP, with a positive effect and variables of financial openness, discretionary government spending and central bank assets with a negative impact, are important factors in output losses of banking crisis. Therefore, we recommend that the mentioned variables be considered in banking crisis management.

The main purpose of this study is to identify the determinants of banking crisis loss, the variables of policy framework especially, for 12 sample countries over the period 1980-2019. Accordingly, we extracted pre-crisis and post-crisis trends from countries' real GDPs and then calculated output loss for the crisis year and three years afterwards. In the following, we used the Poisson quasi-maximum likelihood (PPML) method to estimate basic model and model by considering the variables related to the policy framework. Our findings of basic model show the variables of real per capita GDP, inflation, bank credit to GDP ratio, have a significant positive effect and variables of financial openness and discretionary government spending have a significant negative effect on output loss related to banking crisis. Also, our analysis of different models with the presence variables of fiscal rules, exchange rate regimes, central bank independence and conservatism reveals that using of more flexible policies instead of extremely restrictive policy frameworks, such as having a balanced budget, a soft peg regime (intermediate exchange regime) and a central bank with less degree of independence and conservatism, are suitable for managing and reducing output loss related to banking crisis.

The aim of this paper is examining appropriate structures in order to achieve the objectives of monetary and fiscal policy in the Iranian economy. The behavior of monetary and fiscal policymakers was derived using dynamic optimization and game theory techniques trough defining objective functions and policy makers’ constraints under two basic policy making approaches: commitment and discretionary. findings showed that,Regardless of committed or discretionary policymaking approach, fiscal policy has procyclical behavio. findings showed that, the hypothesis that oil revenues are only reason of fiscal dominance in Iranian economy is rejected and policy maker s commitment is necessary condition and fiscal discipline is sufficient condition for independence of monetary policy.

Because of the similarity between some signs of panic disorder (PD) and COVID-19, individuals with PD like individuals with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) are vulnerable to negative outcomes of the pandemic. However, previous studies did not adequately address the impacts of COVID-19 on this disorder. Regarding the importance of cognitive mechanisms for both disorders, examining the cognitive impacts of COVID-19 is especially critical. The study aims to compare individuals with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), panic disorder (PD), and nonclinical samples in terms of obsessive beliefs and COVID-19 stress, two years after the beginning of the pandemic.

Methods and Materials:

 In a survey, 127 individuals were recruited through purposive sampling. After being taken for the clinical interview, they were divided into OCD (n=42), PD (n=40), and nonclinical (n=45) groups. Participants responded to the Obsessive Beliefs Questionnaire (OBQ-44), COVID-19 Stress Scale, and Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9). Data were analyzed by one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), and Scheffe posthoc tests.

There were no significant differences between clinical groups based on any obsessive beliefs. In terms of socioeconomic outcomes and traumatic stress components of COVID-19 stress, there were no significant differences between clinical and nonclinical groups. However, individuals with OCD and PD obtained meaningfully higher scores in xenophobia and obsessive checking/ reassurance-seeking components, respectively, than other groups. Even two years after the beginning of the pandemic, clinical groups were significantly more concerned about the danger and contamination of COVID-19 than the nonclinical group.

Obsessive beliefs in individuals with PD are comparable to individuals with OCD during the pandemic. Also, individuals with PD engaged more in obsessive checking/ reassurance-seeking than individuals with OCD and the nonclinical group; it could burden extensive costs for the therapeutic system during the pandemic.

The aim of this study is to estimate the known statistical characteristics of nominal price stickiness in the Iranian economy during the years 1390 to 1399 and at different commodity levels of microdata of consumer price index (including product category, Coicop commodity group, and the whole economy) and thus the stickiness between categories and product groups are also compared. For this purpose, 421 categories have been selected as a sample from the database of the Consumer Price Index Statistics Plan of the Statistics Center of Iran. This sample is about 93% of the number of consumer basket items in the base year 95 and 67% of consumer expenditures in the base year 90 covers. In this study, the nominal price stickiness index is estimated via the duration and frequency approaches. According to the results, this index is estimated at 29% based on frequency approaches in the whole economy and about 2.99 months based on the Duration approaches, which is less than in developed countries. Also, the comparison of indicators at the level of items and Coicop groups shows the existence of heterogeneity in the stickiness of nominal prices. The group of food and beverages and group of housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels have the lowest, and the group of communication and education have the highest price stickiness.

The purpose of this study is to Prediction the possibility of a banking crisis in a dynamic early warning system framework. We using data compiled from 10 middle-income countries for the period 1996-2017 and estimate static and dynamic logit model. The estimation results show that the dynamic logit model is better than the static model. We find that broad liquidity ratio, domestic credit to GDP ratio and stock market index are early warning signs of banking crisis. Also, the dynamic variable (lagged banking crisis) shows that if a banking crisis occurs in a year ago, there is a possibility of crisis in this year. Our result shows the possibility of continuation and persistence of banking crises for consecutive years. Then, the evaluation results of warning system show dynamic early warning system turns out to exhibit significantly better predictive abilities than the existing static one, both in- and out-of-sample.

The purpose of this study is to determine banking crisis dates in four different groups of countries and also to calculate four alternative measures of real output losses in the year of the banking crisis and three years later, over the period 1980-2019. In the first step, we used the money market pressure index approach to determine the date of the banking crisis. In the second step, we used the Hodrick-Prescott filter to extract different trends from countries' GDPs to calculate four alternative measures of real output losses, three of which are based on the loss in GDP with respect to its trend and the fourth measure is the loss in the trend itself. We also graphically analyzed the number of banking crises in different groups of countries and output losses following crises. In this study, 122 banking crises were identified in four groups of countries. The results of graph analysis of the crises showed that the highest number of banking crises (14 crises) occurred in 2008. Also, about 22 Percentage of the total banking crises (28 crises) occurred in the period 2008-2012, in which the share of high-income countries was higher than other country groups. Then, four alternative measures of real output losses following the banking crisis, the statistics related to the maximum and minimum losses, and graphical analysis were presented.

The main purpose of this study is to estimate the probability of banking crisis using the second generation of early warning systems (logit models), for 13 selected high-middle income countries over the period of 1980-2016. In this regard, two types of logit models; binomial and multinomial, are estimated. The results of estimated binomial logit model show that three leading indicators of the crisis are broad liquidity ratio, stock price index and inflation, which are the main causes of crisis in the studied countries. These variables account for about 17 percent of the probability of a banking crisis. Then, to avoid post-crisis bias, the multinomial logit model is estimated. The empirical results confirm that above three leading indicators are warning. Also, among the above three variables, only stock price index variable with a probability of 12.68%, causes the economy to exit the banking crisis and change its situation from the crisis/recovery period to the tranquil period. The multinomial logit model exhibit significantly better in-sample predictive abilities than the binomial logit model.

This study aimed at comparing efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy, Zolpidem 10 mg, and waiting list group on illness perception and sleep efficiency in individuals with chronic insomnia disorder. 

Participants included 74 (female = 43) individuals with chronic insomnia disorder who were recruited from 2018 December to 2020 February by purposive sampling (inclusive & exclusive criteria). Then, patients randomly allocated to one of the three conditions, including cognitive behavioral therapy (N=25), pharmacotherapy (Zolpidem 10 mg.; N=29), and the waiting list (N=20). All patients were assessed three times at pretreatment, post-treatment, and 3-month follow-up by the Persian version of Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire and Sleep Efficiency Index. The data were analyzed by mixed analysis of variance with Bonferroni post-hoc test and repeated measure analysis of variance. 

All stages of the research have been carried after taking supervising and approving of Kharazmi Universitychr('39')s ethics in research committee. 

The patients who received cognitive behavioral therapy compared to patients in waiting list group, obtained significantly lower scores in illness perception and sleep efficiency during post-treatment and 3-month follow-up. Efficacy of pharmacotherapy only observed during post-treatment but there were no significant differences between pharmacotherapy and waiting list patients during 3-month follow-up.

Cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia reduced significantly illness perceptions and sleep efficiency during 3 months. All the treatment gains remain stable even 3 months later treatment ends. In addition, not receiving any treatment in waiting list and gradually discontinued the treatment in pharmacotherapy group leads to decreasing of sleep efficiency and increasing of illness perception.

Air transport is an important component of the transportation industry of any country and airports are considered as one of the key inputs of this industry. Therefore, it is crucial to assess the performance and efficiency of airports and take appropriate measures to increase their efficiencies. To that end, in the present study we use stochastic frontier analysis approach to examine the technical efficiency of selected international airports in Iran (i.e. Mehrabad, Mashhad, Shiraz, Tabriz, and Isfahan airports). The findings using the data for the period 2010-2015 show that 98% of the inefficiencies observed in these airports are due to the technical inefficiencies. In addition, none of the airports under study had achieved the complete efficiency and the lowest efficiency is observed in 2015. The results also indicate that Mashhad and Tabriz airports ranked first, with the highest efficiency among the five selected airports. Isfahan and Mehrabad airports ranked second and last, respectively.

One of the issues raised about crises is dating them. If the date of crises are determined, future problems can be reduced by adopting appropriate policies. Banking crises are not an exception to this rule as one types of financial crises. Hence, in the present study, the dates of the banking crisis were determined by calculating the modified money market pressure index for low middle-income and high middle-income countries over the period of 1980-2019. Then, obtained dates were compared with dates of Laeven and Valencia (2020) by calculating the Kappa coefficient. The results of this comparison show a matching of about 10 percent for low middle-income countries and about 30 percent for high middle-income countries between crisis dates of the present study and the study of Laeven and Valencia (2020). Also, the investigation of inflation and real GDP growth for the studied countries showed that inflation is a suitable leading indicator for early warning of banking crisis. The decline in real GDP growth in the post-crisis years was also cited as one of the problems of the banking crisis.

Recent theories regarding economic growth show that research and development (R&D, hereafter) activities are of the most salient factors in the process of science production and play an important role in improving the productivity level of all production agents. That is why, developed countries pay special attention to such activities and allocate and invest high research budgets in these areas. However, due to low R&D budgets and limited capital resources for manufacturing enterprises in developing countries, these countries can benefit from the overflow of international R&D activities, hence improve the total productivity of their production agents. But the important issue is that, some internal and/or external factors, such as the absorption capacity of countries and/or the degree of their relative backwardness can affect the impact mechanism of the overflows with regard to productivity and cause some possible nonlinear effects. To investigate these possible nonlinear effects, more flexible methods are required to enable appropriate identification and investigation of the behavior of these factors in terms of the impact mechanism of international R&D spillovers.Accordingly, in the present study, the threshold effects of absorption capacity and relative backwardness on international R&D overflows in developing countries is investigated. The nonlinear panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) is used in order to investigate the subject matter of the current study within the time period of 1995-2015. For this purpose, the impact channel of international research and development overflows on the total efficiency of production factors was used; in two separate estimates, the effectiveness of the two variables of absorption capacity transfer and relative backwardness on the performance of international R&D overflows, and consequently the total productivity of the production factors were examined.

Given that in regression models based on panel data, heterogeneous temporal and cross-sectional effects in the data are determined by the fixed and random effects model, and in such models the elasticities (coefficients of variables) ) Between countries and over time, a linear equation cannot allow changes in the productivity of total factors of production to reflect all possible nonlinear effects relative to the R&D overflow. In this study, in order to investigate and test the relationship between variables, the panel model uses a gentle panel regression regression econometric technique. For this purpose, following the study of Gonzalez et al. (2005) and colitis and Harolin (2006), a two-diet PSTR model with a transfer function is first defined as follows:(1)    In relation (1), i = 1,…, N and t = 1,…, T, respectively, represent the sections and time dimensions of the panel data. The dependent variable indicates the productivity of all factors of production, and the independent variables, respectively, indicate the overflow of domestic R&D, human capital and the overflow of international R&D. The fixed effects of sections and sentences are model errors that are considered as follows. It also represents a continuous and finite transfer function between zero and one. According to the theoretical and experimental foundations in the field of study, in this study, the variables of absorption capacity and relative backwardness (degree of development) have been selected as the transfer variable.

According to the results and considering the threshold effects of absorption capacity and relative backwardness, the international R&D overflows impact factor on the total productivity of production factors increases. In other words, the results showed that, the variable of absorption capacity, which is equivalent to the average years of human resource training, has a positive and significant effect on the international R&D overflows impact with regard to the total efficiency of production factors in developing countries. That is, by increasing the threshold limit of absorption capacity, the effect of overflows on the productivity also increases. Therefore, developing countries need a certain amount of human resource training in order to enable them to benefit from the effects of the international overflow on total productivity of the production factors. Also, the relative backwardness index acts directly, and with an increase of technological gap in developing countries and moving away from the leading country (the United States is considered in the current study) the extent of the international overflows impact on the total productivity of production factors increases. But this increasing trend will exist to some extent of the backwardness. Of course, it is worth noting that, according to the results, this direct relationship is established up to a certain threshold level of the absorption capacity and relative backwardness in developing countries and in countries with very high absorption capacity or are greatly lagging behind. The linear regime determines the behavior of variables and as such, the influence coefficient of overflows on the total productivity of production factors in these countries is reported to be weaker. 

Therefore, in order to reap the benefits of R&D international overflows to improve their productivity, it is recommended that developing countries should identify their potentials in international trade and consider the areas of R&D overflows that benefit them most. In addition, by efficiently training and educating specialized human resources and strengthening the internal absorption capacity, these countries will be able to absorb and localize new technologies and provide the ground for absorbing as many overflows as possible. Also, by proper policy-making in the use of domestic resources, these countries can allocate appropriate budgets for domestic R&D activities and seriously monitor them by strengthening domestic production to varying degrees of development. Accordingly, they might become able to reduce their technological gap from leading countries so that they can make the most out of their international trade, and by attracting more foreign technologies, compete effectively in the global arena and benefit from overflows to improve their productivity.

Nowadays, non-oil exports play an important role in import currency in the country. Experimental studies on exports show that the enterprises export rate is affected by various factors such as exchange rate, productivity and investment in research. The presents study aims to investigate the impact of investment in R & D on export performance of enterprises in provinces of Iran during 2000-2015, using systemic Generalized Method of Moment (GMM). Due to political geographical changes of the provinces in aforesaid years, country divisions are included 28 provinces and Alborz, North and south Khorasan provinces are not considered in the study as separate provinces. The required data are collected using the library and documentary method of annual census reports of industrial workshops in more ten employees and more of it and regional accounts in statistical center of Iran. The result of model estimation indicate that investment in R & D has a positive and significant impact on improving the export performance of enterprises so that increasing 1% investment in R & D leading to 0.063% increase in the export performance of enterprises. In addition to examine the impact of investment in R & D, the explanatory variables such as advertising costs, work force productivity, human capital, market share of industry sector of the total market of each province and total industry expenditure have been investigated. Results indicate that they have a positive impact on export performance of enterprises. Findings also showed that the work force productivity and market share of industry sector variables had the most impact on export performance among explanatory variables

The economy consists of several sections, and the performance of each sector plays a private part in the progress of the economy. The oil and gas sector, as one of the economic sectors in Iran, plays an important and undeniable role due to the main source of government revenue. Therefore, checking the performance of this sector can be important for the economic development of the country. The study of total factor productivity is one of the ways to examine the performance of sectors, which indicates the optimal growth of the economy of that sector. Therefore, this study investigates the effect of Technology Spillover and Research and Development (R&D) on growth of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) of the oil and gas sector in Iran for the period (1394-1394). Important factors of Technology Spillover include Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and imports of capital goods and intermediates. Accumulation internal Research and Development (R&D) and human capital also are considered as internal impact factors. The results proved that foreign direct investment, and the imports of capital goods, and intermediates as important channels of technology spillover have a positive influence on growth of total factor productivity (TFP) of the oil and gas sector in Iran. The results also highlight a positive impact of human capital. By contrast, results of our estimation show a negative impact of R&D on growth of total factor productivity (TFP) of the oil and gas sector in Iran.

Cognitive behavioral therapy is the first-line and golden standard in treating chronic insomnia disorder but some studies showed that by addressing metacognitive components, its efficacy increases. The present study aimed to evaluate efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy with or without metacognitive techniques in people with chronic insomnia disorder.

Once evaluator took diagnostic assessments, four patients including one male and three females who met eligibility criteria were assigned to cognitive behavioral therapy and cognitive behavioral therapy with metacognitive techniques consisting of detached mindfulness and worry/ rumination postponement. All of the patients were assessed six times by sleep efficacy index and perceived social support scale. Then, dada were analyzed by visual interpretation of ups and downs in graphs, effect size and diagnostic recovery.

Although duration of the disorder in patients who received cognitive behavioral therapy with metacognitive techniques was longer compared to patients in the other group, they had higher sleep efficiency and perceived social support than the other group. Both of the groups especially which received metacognitive techniques were achieved high effect size and diagnostic recovery. Treatment gains were maintained till three months after treatment ended. 

Adding metacognitive techniques to golden standard in treating of chronic insomnia disorder could increase the efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy in terms of sleep efficiency and perceived social support.

It is important for economic policy makers to study and predict the sustainability of currency crisis effect on macroeconomic variables, especially GDP. In this regard, the main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of currency crisis on GDP dynamics during 1970-2016. In this regard, the empirical model has been estimated using the theoretical basis of the research and GPS approach. According to the results, the negative effect of the currency crisis on GDP is confirmed in short run. Foreign capital inflow and short-term foreign debt are among the factors exacerbating the effect of currency crisis on GDP growth in short run. The rate of export growth and the changes in terms of trade are moderating effect of currency crisis on -GDP. Increasing the supply of national currency as well as increasing government spending and budget deficits are exacerbating effect of crisis. Rising interest rates also increase the negative effects of currency crisis on GDP

In the current study, the effect of international spillovers of research and development on total factor productivity in developing countries has been investigated with considering the threshold effects of absorption capacity. The period the present study is 1995-2015, and the Panel smooth transition regression method has been used to investigate the issue. The results show that developing countries should reach certain levels of domestic absorption capacity so that international R & D inflows can improve the overall productivity of production factors. The coefficients show that bypassing the developing countries on the threshold of absorption capacity, the impact of international research and development overflows will increase on total factor productivity. In developing countries, with average per capita income exceeding capacity capping thresholds, the impact of overflows has increased dramatically and has had a greater impact on total factor productivity. However, in low-per capita countries that do not have adequate levels of absorption capacity, the impact of research and development overflows on total factor productivity has been reported to be negligible.

The frequent occurrence of foreign exchange crises in recent years has brought back early warning literature to the focus of researchers .The aim of this study is to introduce a warning pattern before the crisis of the foreign exchange crisis in Iran. The purpose of this study was to introduce a warning pattern before the onset of the currency crisis in Iran. In recent years, a concept has been developed for an Early Warning System (EWS), which should be able to identify costly events such as currency crises in order to create enough time to reduce the cost of the crisis for economic researchers. In this study, factors affecting the contingency of an Iranian currency crisis during the years 1981-2016 are examined using a discrete dependent variable model in the Logit model. This study uses a combination of exchange rate changes, foreign exchange reserves and bank interest rate to calculate the adjusted currency crisis index. The results of the estimate logit model shows that the increase in variable ratio of budget deficit to GDP ratio of current account deficit to GDP ratio of domestic credit to the private sector to the GDP and inflation, the probability of a currency crisis increase. In other words, the increase in these variables (as indicators of the advancement of the currency crisis) is causing an intensification in the occurrence of the currency crisis. Other research results suggest that an increase in the GDP growth rate will reduce the probability of a currency crisis. This study uses a combination of exchange rate changes, foreign exchange reserves and bank interest rate to calculate the adjusted currency crisis index. The elasticity of government deficit to GDP ratio indicates that a one percent increase in this variable, assuming other variables are constant. Increases the probability of a currency crisis by 0.48 percent. On the other hand, the marginal Effect on the ratio of state budget deficit to gross domestic product (gdp) shows that in return for a single increase in this variable, the probability of a foreign exchange crisis will increase by 32 per cent. Thus an increase in the budget deficit is one of the leading factors in the occurrence of the currency crisis. It can be said that if the government finances part of its deficit from the reserve location, this would lead to a decrease in foreign exchange reserves and it increases the probability of a currency crisis in the country. On the other hand, the variable elasticity of the current account deficit to GDP ratio indicates that the probability of occurrence of a currency crisis increases by 0.38 percent for one percent increase in this variable assuming the stability of other conditions. On the other hand, the marginal effect of this variable indicates that the probability of a currency crisis occurring during the period under review increases by about 14% per unit increase in the current account deficit. Another leading indicator of the currency crisis that has a negative impact on the currency crisis is the GDP growth rate. In fact, the elasticity of this variable indicates that the probability of a currency crisis is reduced by 0.03% for a one percent increase in GDP growth rate. On the other hand, its marginal effect also indicates that for a unit increase in GDP growth rate, assuming the stability of other conditions, the probability of a currency crisis decreases by 0.24%. The amount of the variable of financial development variable indicates that for one percent increase in this variable, assuming the stability of other conditions, the probability of currency crisis will increase 0.007 percent. On the other hand, the marginal effect of this variable indicates that the probability of occurrence of currency crisis increases by 0.004% per unit increase in financial development. It should be noted that this coefficient is not statistically significant. Marginal ly, inflation rate elasticity indicates that for one percent increase in inflation rate, assuming the stability of other variables, the probability of currency crisis increases by 1.54 percent. The marginal effect of this coefficient also indicates that by one unit increase in inflation rate the probability of a currency crisis increases by 1.33% Therefore, inflation is also one of the leading factors in the currency crisis.

The purpose of this study is to introduce a pre-crisis warning pattern in Iran during the years 1981-2016 using Logit and Markov switching approaches. This study use a combination of exchange rate changes, foreign reserves and bank profit to calculate the adjusted currency crisis index. In this regard, to investigate the factors affecting the probability of currency crisis was used to Logit approach and  to investigate the effect of early warning variables on the currency crisis the Markov switching approach was used. The results of the Logit approach indicate that the increase in the variables of the ratio of government deficit to GDP, current account deficit to GDP ratio and inflation rate had a positive effect on the probability of a currency crisis. On the other hand, an increase in GDP growth and oil prices has reduced the likelihood of a currency crisis. The results of the Markov Switching approach also show that variables of the ratio of government deficit to GDP, current account deficit to GDP ratio and inflation rate have increased the occurrence of currency crisis. Also, the increase in explanatory variables of oil price and GDP growth rate will reduce the occurrence of currency crisis.