فهرست مطالب dr. farhad khodadad kashi

The purpose of the present paper is to study the effect of levying tax on savings interest on the total portfolio (the combination of economic agents’ financial and capital assets) and saving, using the Financial Computable General Equilibrium (FCGE) approach. For this purpose, the data of the Social Financial Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Iran 2018 was used. Financial assets and liabilities have been separated into ten groups using the statement of cash flow published in 2018 by Central Bank.Model calibration has been done using GAMS software and NLP method. In this study levying a ten percent tax on the savings interest shows that the total savings of economic agents, including households and the government, and the investment of financial institutions in the construction and real estate sector will increase by 0.92%, 9.72%, and 37%, respectively. Also, savings, demand deposits, and shares will increase by 5.13%, 3.2%, and 8.8%, respectively. While, the total direct investment of economic agents decreases by 1.4 percent and the amount of short-term and long-term loans to economic agents decreases by 1.18 and 2.58 percent, respectively. The lack of coherent and advanced financial markets, the avoidance of keeping gold and foreign exchange by economic agents due to risk aversion and the lack of cash returns, and the lack of access to the housing market for all economic agents can be considered as the important reasons for the increase in savings.

Performance of monopolies in the Iranian economy is not only a result of the behavior of certain economic actors, based on principle 44 of the Constitution as the legal basis after the 1979 Revolution. Due to the responsibilities outlined in this principle, state monopolies became a dominant force in Iran's economy, while the private sector continued its activities as a supplement to the state economy. The success of this dependent sector relied on the extent of coordination with the government. The enactment and implementation of the Law on Amending the General Policies of principle 44 in the Constitution was a reaction to the undesirable performance of state monopolies. This law, passed by the Iranian parliament in 2008, aimed to reduce government monopoly and increase private sector participation and competition in the Iranian economy.It is expected that the implementation of this law would transform Iran's economy from a monopolistic state to a competitive one, providing consumers with greater access to higher-quality goods and services while reducing the costs associated with monopolies. To assess the achievement of the objectives of this law, it is necessary to study the structure and performance of Iran's economic markets by using scientific methods to evaluate the degree of monopolistic power and the extent of changes in monopolistic welfare costs.This article attempts to measure the degree of monopoly in Iran's major industries during the period from 2002 to 2019. To achieve this goal, the data from ten two-digit industries of Iran's industrial sector are used, and the stochastic frontier function approach is applied to measure the corresponding mark-up.

In this research, the random frontier approach is used to evaluate the intensity of competition (monopoly) in Iran's major industries within the cost function framework. The cost function is denoted as C = (W, Y, T), where T represents the technology level, Y is the output level, W is the vector of factor prices, and C is the minimum cost associated with each output level. By estimating the cost function, the marginal cost can be estimated for each production level. Also, by inputting the price data, the size of the markup can be determined. Based on the size of the markup, one can judge the level of market monopolization. If the market is perfectly competitive, price and marginal cost will be equal, and the markup or monopolistic power will be zero. On the other hand, if the market is non-competitive, it is expected to have P > MC (where P is the price and MC is the marginal cost). If  P-MC > 0, it indicates the presence of monopolistic power. Since the markup is expressed as θ = (p-MC)/MC, by estimating θ, the Lerner index can be calculated. Furthermore, by calculating the elasticity of cost with respect to production, the return to scale can also be determined for large industries.

In this study, the market power (monopoly power) in large-scale industries of Iran was measured based on two indices including the markup index and the Lerner index. The research findings indicate the existence of market power in these industries. For the average of these industries, the markup was estimated to be 5.22, and the Lerner index was estimated to be 0.839. Both indices not only confirmed the existence of market power in large industries but also emphasized the high level of market power. During the period under study, the highest value of the Lerner index was observed in 2009. Additionally, the study revealed that, on average, the large industries in Iran operate in the decreasing-cost region, which is supported by the increasing returns to scale (RTS =1.47). In other words, the average economies of scale were found to be Es = 0.47, indicating that not all the scale advantages have been fully utilized in these industries. There is a significant concentration in the industries of Iran, as only two industries out of seventy account for 43.3% of the total industry sales; each of these two industries has a share of more than ten percent. Furthermore, eleven industries have a share of more than 5% of the total industry sales, and these eleven industries together hold 82.3% of the total industry sales. All of these figures indicate the high level of concentration in the industrial sector of Iran.Conclusions and policy implications: The research results indicate that the large industries in Iran are highly concentrated. The indices not only confirm the presence of market power (monopoly power) in these industries but also emphasize the significant level of this power. Among the seventy-four-digit ISIC (International Standard Industrial Classification) industries, ten two-digit industries were examined in this study. In the year 2019, the market power in sixty-two industries was higher than 0.9, and these industries accounted for 82% of the total industry sales. In other words, a substantial portion of the industrial sector is effectively controlled in a monopolistic manner.

Iran ,especially the province of golestan has always been exposed to floods, and in addition to causing great damage to the country and the province of golestan , no proper plan has yet been thought to reduce economic costs . This article tries to identify the key sectors of the province and evaluate the indirect damage of the flood through the construction and agriculture sectors on other sectors of the province.For this purpose , the regional input – output table with two demand side and supply side approaches is used to calculate the backward and forward linkages of the province´s sectors.The results indicate that the industry , construction and agriculture sectors are introduced as the key sectors of the province’s economy. According to both demand side and supply side approaches , two sectors of agriculture and industry suffer the most indirect damage due to the direct damage of the agriculture sector. According to the demand side approach , the result indicate that the most decrease in output is caused by direct damage to the construction sector , respectively , related to the industry , wholesale and retail sectors . On the other hand , industry and agriculture sectors experienced the most decrease in employment.the analysis of flood effects with a supply side approach indicates that the flood not only directly affects the construction sector , but also causes a decrease in employment in the industry , agriculture and construction sectors

In this research, the Iran's economy resilience before and after the JCPOA and the factors affecting it are evaluated. A composite index is used to measure Iran's economic resilience. This index covers the three dimensions of economic stability, welfare effects, concentration and export variety. The results confirm that Iran's economic resilience has changed from 0.31 to 0.51 during the period 1995-2016. It should be mentioned that the size of this index decreased to its lowest level in 2013 due to the sanctions imposed by the United Nations. In addition, variables such as economic complexity, economic freedom, good governance and capital formation have positive and significant effect on the Iran's economy resilience, while the openness of the economy had a negative effect on it. The estimation results of the model show that JCPOA has had a positive and significant effect on Iran's economy resilience. This agreement has had a significant effect on Iran's economy and world markets by canceling and removing nuclear sanctions against Iran. The implementation of this agreement has facilitated the entry of technology and investment of the world's oil companies in Iran.

In the new theory of international trade, the deficiency in competition has been emphasized and the role of factors such as economies of scale and variety is taken into consideration. Car world market is also hugely dependent on economies of scale. Firms with sufficient scale and economies of scale are successful in this market. The main purpose of this study is to measure economies of scale in Iran's automotive industry and also to evaluate the welfare effects of variety of automobile imports in Iran. To calculate the economies of scale in automotive industry, Translog production function with input cost share equations and seemingly unrelated iterative regression estimation method were used during the time frame of 2002 to 2018. The research findings confirm that the Iranian car companies are in the descending area of the average cost curve, it means they have not yet benefited completely from advantages economies of scale. As well as in this study for evaluating the welfare effects of variety in imports of Iran's automotive industry, Feenstra and Broda & Weinstein methods has been used. The amount of product variety has been measured by product-level import data and the six-digit codes Harmonized System (HS) classification. The results suggested that the increasing in variety of imported cars leads to increasing in consumer’s welfare and vice versa.

Over the past decades, technology has been considered as a major factor that affects economic and industrial development. The export technology content, which reflects the export goods characteristics, has also been of great importance at the international level. The export technology content influenced by knowledge which one of its sources is learning that according to economists, can be due to experience in production or export. The purpose of this paper is analyzing the learning-by-doing and investigating its impact on industrial export technology content at the level of two-digit ISIC codes in Iran’s Industries using the Arellano-Band dynamic data estimation method from 2011 to 2015. For this purpose, different indicators are used to quantify the learning and another indicator is applied to compute the export technology content. The results of this study show that learning-by-exporting influences both a country’s export composition and the export technology content more than learning-by-production. In addition, learning-by-doing has a positive and significant effect on the export technology content. Further, the variables of human capital, GDP per capita, trade openness, and Intra-industry trade index have a remarkable effect on the export technology content of two-digit ISIC codes industries.

The emergence of social networks has led to a change in the paradigm of social communication in all aspects of human life. This study, while describing the influential space of these networks on women's economic life, seeks to examine the economic value of Instagram as an example of non-market goods within the framework of microeconomic concepts. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to estimate the Willingness to accept (WTA) female users in Tehran to avoid using Instagram for one month using One-and-one-half-bounded dichotomous choice (OOHB) method. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to estimate the Willingness to accept (WTA) female users to avoid using Instagram for one month using OOHB method. This study is classified in terms of fundamental purpose and terms the descriptive survey research method. The total volume of the sample was determined by the Michelle and Carson 384 formula and the 7 -price range of the proposed questionnaire was specified by Cooper. The results of this study showed that the minimum Willingness to accept users to not use Instagram for a month was 415474 Tomans'; Approximately the monthly welfare surplus equivalent will be 989 billion tomans. The study's results indicated that education variables, income, time of using Instagram, and budget to access the Internet had a positive and significant effect on women. The results also showed that the age variables and the head of the household had a negative and significant effect on the desire to receive female users.

The government's exclusive access to oil resources, governmental economy and the orientation of article 44 of constitution regarding privatization, are the main hindrances that affect competition, productivity and efficiency in Iran’s economy. In this regard, by the enforcement of "the law of general policies of article 44" it is aimed to restrict the government monopoly. The main objective of this paper is to identify Iran's markets structure and to measure the monopoly power in industrial markets based on 2-digit ISIC codes. To achieve this purpose, the Hall-Roger approach is applied to measure monopoly power in the manufacturing industries for the period of 1381 to 1397. The findings show that in most industries, the mark-up index is more than 1.2 and the Lerner index is more than 0.16, which indicates the existence of monopoly power. Sectors such as cement, lime and plaster, and pharmaceutical industries have the highest level of monopoly power. In addition, the results show that the industries under investigation lack economies of scale.

In today's world, policymakers are trying to consider the preferences and desires of society as a pillar in the decision-making and implementation of economic policies; Policy-making in the field of social media is no exception to this, so understanding the behavior of consumers and users of social media, makes the possibility of policies more successful. In this study, using the one and one half bound dichotomous choice model, non-market value and the Willingness to accept users not to use Instagram have been estimated. The proposed amounts in the questionnaire are designed by the Cooper method. The total sample size is determined by Michel and Carson formula to 781 users. The corresponding function was estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The results show that the minimum desire to receive users for not using Instagram for a month is 379578 Tomans, the equivalent of 989 billion Tomans, approximately the monthly welfare surplus. The variables of household income, education, family budgets for access to the Internet and time of using Instagram have a positive and significant effect, and age, head of household, sex, marital has a negative and significant effect on the Willingness to accept users for non-use Instagram. The results showed that among the users, the highest desire to receive is related to the group of employees and then respectively, related to, students, , homemakers, freelancers, unemployed and retirees,.

 The purpose of this article is to identify the effect of gender composition of the workforce on productivity in Iranian manufacturing industries. For this purpose, while using the data of four-digit ISIC codes of the comprehensive plan of statistics from manufacturies with more than ten employees of the Statistics Center, the productivity of manufacturing industries is evaluated. Levinson and Petrin approaches are used to evaluate the factors affecting productivity in order to avoid the problem of simultaneity in the production function. According to the test results related to the data type, it was determined that the data are panel type. The results of the research indicate that, firstly, the estimation of productivity by Levinson and Petrin method is valid. Second: Although increasing gender equality among administrative-financial staff increases productivity, but the relationship between productivity and the employment share of skilled and unskilled female employees is negative at low levels of the employment distribution and positive at high levels of this distribution. Third, increasing women’s participation in light industries improves productivity. In addition, in small firms, gender equality among skilled workers and in large firms, gender equality among unskilled workers increases productivity.

Understanding the water content of export and import products in international trade has an effective role in the optimal management of water in Iran as a country with water stress. The main purpose of this study is to identify the balance of water content of products in Iran's foreign trade. For this purpose, using the input-output tables - 2016 and considering the interrelationships and dependencies between major economic sectors including agriculture, mines, manufacturing, electricity and gas production, treatment, supply and wastewater, buildings, services and others, the Water footprint index, net import of virtual water and some indicators related to water consumption have been calculated. The results show that in 2016, Iran was a net importer of virtual water. Although the agricultural sector has the highest national water footprint ( 89%), according to the water consumption multiplier index, increasing water consumption in this sector has very little effect on increasing water consumption in other sectors. After the agricultural sector, the manufacturing sector has the highest intensity of indirect water consumption (3.5 cubic meters / million Rials), and the increase in water consumption in this sector has the greatest impact on increasing water consumption in the economy. So that the increase of one unit of water consumption in this sector increases the water consumption of the agricultural sector by 7 times and the water consumption of the whole country by 9 times. After the agricultural sector, the highest amount of virtual water content (direct and indirect water consumption) was allocated to the treatment, supply and wastewater sector(5.8 cubic meters / million Rials). The services and other sectors, which has been the largest net exporter of virtual water ( 217 million cubic meters), have the largest water footprint after agriculture.

In this article, we try to examine how to eliminate poverty and inequality throughthe negative income tax system. In this study, the rate of poverty and inequality iscalculated through Kakwani poverty indicators and Gini coefficient inequality index,respectively. Negative income tax rate (0.5) for the income distance to the povertyline, is considered and the statistical sample of the study includes the cost andincome of 12961 urban households in Iran in 2018. The results of this study showthat the plan to impose a negative income tax (0.5) will reduce the povertycalculated based on the Kakovani index from 0.54 to 0.24 which shows a decreaseof about 0.55%. The Gini coefficient decreases from 0.38 before the policy to 0.17,which means a 55% reduction in inequality. On the other hand, to completelyeradicate poverty in Iran, according to the data of 2018, there must impose anincreased tax rate of 60% on the income surplus of non-poor people up to thepoverty line.

The purpose of this article is to understand the effect of the type of labor market contract on the productivity growth of total factor productivity (TFP) in Iran's manufacturing industries. For this purpose, while using panel data, in order to avoid the problem of simultaneity in the production function, productivity was measured by Levinsohn and Petrin semi-parametric methods. Then, using the skill intensity index, industries were divided into skilled and unskilled sections. In evaluating the impact of labor market contract type on productivity growth in skilled and unskilled sectors, the effect of two Schumpeterian growth variables on productivity growth of the leadership industry and the productivity gap between each industry and the leadership industry was also estimated. The results indicate that, first, temporary employment (TE) has a negative effect on productivity growth, but is more harmful in the skilled sectors. Second, the positive impact of the relative productivity gap and the productivity growth of the leader industry is consistent with the Schumpeterian growth literature.

In the traditional theory of international trade, trade between countries and the extent of their success was explained only on the basis of available resources, but in the new theory of international, the role of factors such as economies of scale and product variety has been considered. The main purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of economies of scale and variety on foreign trade of Iran's automotive industry with major trading partners in the period 2002 to 1397. The Translog production function was used to evaluate the economies of scale in Iran's automotive industry and Feenstra variety index was used to measure product variety in the export products of Iran's automotive industry. While using iterative seemingly unrelated method to estimate the economies of scale, a dynamic panel data via GMM method was used to estimate the trade model. The results suggested that economies of scale and variety have positive impact on the foreign trade of Iran's automotive industry.

The experience of some countries indicates that export has been an important factor in economic growth and its sustainability. Cost advantage, knowledge and innovation are the factors that affect export. Cost advantage in turn depends on various factors such as learning by doing. Learning leads to the expansion of international trade and economic growth by reducing production costs and creating a competitive advantage. The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate learning by doing and investigating its impact on industrial exports at four-digit ISIC codes level during 2011 to 2015. For this purpose, three different indicators have been operationalized to quantify learning and three export supply models have been estimated using panel data technique. Obtained results indicate that in all three models, learning by doing has a positive and significant effect on export supply. In other words, the effect of learning on exports is not sensitive to the way of offering operational definition. Also, the variables of trade openness, research and development costs and human capital all have positive and significant effects on the export of four-digit ISIC code industries.

The quality and quantity of human capital are the most important factors in economic growth and its expansion depends on the educational and health infrastructure of countries. The education sector promotes the technical knowledge and skills of the human resources and the health sector provides its health; In addition, the quality of health services in turn is affected by education. Also, Learning by doing and learning in the educational process affect the cost structure of the health sector. Therefore, the main purpose of this article was to evaluate the learning intensity and scale economies in the health sector. To meet these ends, the data of 187 developed and developing countries for 2000-2018 and feasible generalized least square (FGLS) method was used. The results indicate that in the world and developed countries the return to scale was constant and the scale economies were exploited. Moreover, in these countries, the learning process is realized and learning intensity was higher than the global average. While in most developing countries the scale economies not to be exhausted. Hence, it is possible to exploit scale economies by increasing production. In these countries about learning intensity can not be decided definitively. Overall, the findings confirm that learning and scale economies realized in the health sector of world countries and in each time cumulative experience doubles, costs will decline to 28% of its previous level. So, both components played an effective role in reducing the average cost of this sector.

The main purpose of this paper is to measure the multidimensional inequality index. To achieve this goal and answer of what trend inequality has gone through during the study period, using the data of the household expenditure income plan of the statistical center of Iran and also using the Bourguignon index, inequality was measured in several dimensions for the period 1984-2018. In addition, it should be noted that in this study, household expenditures were initially adjusted based on age composition and number of household members by calculating the equivalence scale. This adjustment was made possible by estimating the share of expenditures of different commodity groups by considering its functional form in the the quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS). Then, using data mining techniques and Principal Component Analysis(PCA), the weight of the studied dimensions in the analysis (income, education and health) was calculated and when measuring inequality, the degree of social aversion of inequality was considered in the form of two scenarios, zero and one. the results of this study indicate that the magnitude of multidimensional inequality per zero value for both the degree of social aversion of inequality parameter and the degree of substitution parameter based on the Bourguignon, index is between 0.28 and 0.41 in urban areas and between 0.26 and 0.41 in rural areas. fluctuations in the Bourguignon index and the Gini index of income have not necessarily been similar. The findings of this study also showed that the size of multidimensional inequality in rural areas is lower than urban areas in most of the years studied. There is an approximate similarity between its trend in urban and rural areas. Inequality in the 1980s was higher than in other periods (despite higher oil revenues than in the previous and subsequent periods and more government shares transferred than in previous periods), in the early 1390s, declined, and then increased again. Finally, the research findings indicate the failure of the egalitarian goals of development programs and thus emphasize the need for a fundamental review of the forthcoming programs with more attention to distribution by the market institution rather than the government.

Knowledge development and accumulation are important sources of economic growth and development and Learning is one of the effective factors in the development and accumulation of knowledge. Learning reduces the average cost over time along with increasing cumulative production. The chemical industry plays an important role in the country's economy due to its high value added, product diversity and employment. The objective of this study is to analyze learning by doing in Iran's chemical industry at the level of four-digit ISIC codes using panel data during the period 2011 to 2015. For this purpose, the learning curve was estimated using the panel data technique, assuming a constant return to scale. The finding indicate that learning has been achieved in Iran's chemical industry and the slope of the learning curve, ie the effect of learning in all sub-sectors of Iran's industry, as expected, is negative and equal to 0/86. The results indicate that the learning effect is different in the sub-sectors of Iran's chemical industry, but it is close to the average learning intensity.

In this research, the impact of scale economies and product variety on the foreign trade of Iranchr('39')s manufacturing industries with its major trading partners is examined. While using the data of Iranchr('39')s manufacturing sector at two digit level, a translog production function was used to evaluate the economies of scale in this sector. The data covered the period between 2001 to 2015. Moreover, Feenstra variety index is exploited to measure product variety in the export products of Iranchr('39')s industrial sector. While using iterative seemingly unrelated method to estimate  the economies of scale, a dynamic panel data via GMM method was used to estimate the standarad trade model. The results show that economies of scale and product variety have positive impact on the foreign trade of Iranchr('39')s manufacturing industries. To study the causality relationship between the variables of economies of scale and product variety with foreign trade, the Hsiao’s Granger causality test is utilized. The Findings of this research confirm the existence of a two-way causality relationship between economies of scale and product variety with foreign trade of Iranchr('39')s manufacturing industries.

This Study examines the impact of structural changes in the banking industry on firms investment listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, data from 258 firms during the period from 2005 to 2014 and the dynamic generalized method of moments were utilized to put forward an investment model with financial constraints. The results of the study showed that these firms faced a financial constraints on investment and Concentration in the banking industry has affected the investment of the firms by reducing the financial constraints. The results also revealed that small firms have experienced greater financial constraints in comparison with larger firms and Larger firms have gained more benefits from concentration in the banking industry.

Although economic growth is affected by the growth of factors of production, governance and government size were also effective in economic growth. In this study, the impact of government size and governance on the economic growth of perspective document countries evaluated over the period 2017-2006. To meet this end, The World Bank database and data of perspective document countries were used. Moreover, the optimum size of the government evaluated based on the proposed Baro method. This article sought to estimate the effect of size government and governance by using panel data and the threshold nonlinear two-stage generalized method of moment. The findings indicated that the average optimal size of the government was 18.38% of the gross domestic product. Also, in countries with less government size, the growth of government expenditures had a positive effect on economic growth, while countries with a government size larger than optimal, government spending had a negative effect on economic growth. In addition, the results confirmed economic growth was affected by the governance of the state.

The water distribution department of urban water and wastewater companies is of natural monopoly characteristic, and requires regulating. The aim of this research is to regulate urban water and wastewater companies in Iran using a price-cap regulation approach to improve their productivity. For this purpose, using the data of municipal water and wastewater companies over the period 2011-2016, the X-factor for the price-cap regulation is calculated using two productivity growth and inefficiency balance scenarios. In this scenario building, the quality of service is included in the calculation of the X factor. Experimental results show that the inclusion of the service quality index in the calculation of X-factor reduces the rate of productivity improvement of the companies. In addition, the more efficient companies have the lower X-factors, and as a result, experience a higher price cap. This reality encourages companies to increase their efficiency and productivity.

The purpose of this study is to apply dynamic efficiency in regulation of urban water and wastewater companies in Iran. To this end, a dynamic stochastic frontier model that considers the heterogeneity in the long-term technical eficiency of the companies has been used to estimate the dynamic efficiency of 35 urban water and wastewater companies for the period of 2011-16 using the Bayesian approach. The research findings show that, in the absence of heterogeneity among companies, the inefficiency persistence is greater than the time when this heterogeneity is considered.

The aim of this paper is to provide a comparison between different methods of natural monopoly regulation for electricity distribution companies in Iran and introduce the best suitable one based on productivity, quality and incentive considerations. Here we have concluded that the price cap regulation model is the most efficient method of regulation for the situation under consideration. Based on the literature, the target values of both productivity and quality has been calculated in different scenarios of this research. The sample consists of 39 electricity distribution companies in Iran during period 2006 to 2016. First, using the SFA and DEA methods to determine the efficiency score of each company, we have calculated the X-factor for every firm in a 5-year period. In addition, the X-factor was calculated based on Malmquist index and differential method. The results suggest that target X-factor is in the range of 1.7% to 3%. The results indicated that there is an opportunity to increase productivity of electricity distribution companies. To encourage the firms to improve their productivity, a higher target rate of productivity growth would be considered for low-efficiency firms and a lower target for high-efficiency ones. Service quality has been evaluated mainly by quantification and measurement of energy not supplied (ENS) and the waiting time for a new customer to be connected to the power grid and to be able to use electricity. And the target quality value was set for each company.

The main purpose of this article was testing the relation between competition and innovation in Iran’s manufacturing industry. To meet this ends the data of 130 Iran’s 4-digit industries over the period of 1996-2013 were used. Also, this article sought to analyze this relationship by using a panel smooth transition approach. The results indicated that, clearly there was the nonlinear relationship among variables and by increasing concentration until threshold value 0.267 the research and development intensity increased but after this threshold value, its effect decreased. Moreover in the second model by increasing research and development intensity till the threshold value of 0.38 percentage the concentration increased and after that, this impact has been decreased. In addition, only in 6% of Iran's industries competition and innovation was high but, in most industries by increasing competition, innovation were declining. Overall, there was an asymmetric relationship between competition and innovation and in most industries the intensity of research and development expenditures were low. So, in Iran’s industries, the inverse U relation between innovation and competition confirmed.