marzieh samadi foroushani

Discovering the causes of aviation accidents and their prevention as well as solving aircraft design and construction defects are needed to prevent aviation accidents in the future. The present study aims to investigate the dynamics of the aviation accident management system in Iran and identify prevention policies.

In this study, a dynamic model for the aviation accident management system of Iran was designed based on the opinions of policy-makers and aviation experts. After validation, the model was simulated for a 20-year time horizon. According to the Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis results, the aviation accident prevention policies were identified based on three strategies: Development of the country’s aircraft fleet, standardization and improvement of flight safety, and development of pilots’ flight competencies. After applying the policies of each strategy separately on the tested model, the results were compared.

The identified policies included: 1. Financing and budget allocation for aircraft fleet development and purchasing new aircraft to reduce the obsolete fleet by 50% in 5 years, 2. Supporting the aircraft industries in the country and transferring advanced technologies to the country in contracts, 3.) Improving the standards of flight planning and existing aircraft, 4. Increasing the monitoring of flight planning implementation quality according to international standards, 5. Using the aircraft development financial resources for the development of flight safety equipment, 6. Investigating the causes of aviation accidents and implementing risk assessment tests according to national guidelines (CAD 1119), 7. Increasing the productivity of aviation higher education courses and improving the competences of pilots and 8. Increasing the monitoring of pilots’ physical and mental fitness for flight. 

The proposed dynamics model of the aviation accident management system in Iran is an efficient model according to the data of national and international civil aviation organizations.

The urban development planning process in Tehran municipality has been implemented for about two decades in the form of compiling four medium-term urban development plans of Tehran. Despite the efforts made, there are challenges to achieving the goals. This research has analyzed the barriers and identified solutions to improve the system of the development plan of Tehran by formulating the mess and using soft systems methodology during a systemic intervention by planning the learning process in practice. The innovative research method is the embedding of mess formulation in soft systems methodology. Formulating the mess analyses the barriers to identifying inefficiencies about aspects of how power, wealth, knowledge, value, and aesthetics are produced and distributed in a social system. Soft systems methodology is an action-research approach for learning human systems in complex problem situations. After a thematic review by referring to the key actors involved in formulating Tehran's urban development plan, first, the problem situation was analyzed, and a rich picture of the problem was drawn. According to formulating the mess, the obstacles were presented and discussed through some sessions in five subsystems of generation and distribution of power, wealth, knowledge, value, and aesthetics. Later, a conceptual model of the ideal system of urban development planning was designed. Then, desirable and executable system changes were identified based on a comparison of the ideal system and the current system, and they were proposed in the form of purposeful activities toward system improvement. Tehran's urban development planning requires a major change in the approach toward planning and solving complex urban problems. This study is an application of systems thinking approaches in learning in practice and managing the complexity of the diversity of views of urban planners in the experience of urban development planning in Tehran.

Regional justice, disenfranchisement and sustainable development and reducing the gap between the rich and the poor were among the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, which, despite significant progress, are still considered important issues in the society. Sustainable development is one of the most important strategies of the regional planning system, which has received much attention in recent decades. Sustainable regional development, considering access to natural resources, is proposed in the area of economic and social development of the region. So that the economic development of the region should remain at a level that does not exceed the environmental capacity of the region and lead to the improvement of the quality of human life. This research seeks to identify the sustainable development policies of the deprived areas of Delfan with regard to the available financial resources based on the dynamics of the regional sustainable development system.

This study is an application of system dynamics in sustainable development policies of deprived areas. The system dynamics (SD) is for the purpose of modeling complex systems in order to understand and recognize the situation of the problem for the policy makers and to test and ensure the effectiveness of the proposed policies. Therefore, this study has designed the dynamic model of the sustainable development system of deprived areas and simulated the development of the deprived area of Delfan in a ten-year horizon with the participation of regional development planners in order to identify deprivation policies.

After examining the issue of regional sustainable development and policies to reduce poverty in the deprived and less developed regions of the country, with the participation of the beneficiaries of Delfan regional development in Lorestan province, the issue of sustainable development of the deprived region in three economic subsystems and infrastructures sustainable development of deprived areas, social subsystem of sustainable development of deprived areas and environmental subsystem of sustainable development of deprived areas were identified. The economic subsystem and infrastructures of sustainable development of the deprived area deals with the financial flow of deprivation removal resources and its expenses in the infrastructures. The financial resources for the removal of deprivation in Delfan region, according to the financial resources available to the institution of deprivation removal, are government financial resources and the participation of private sector investors. In accordance with the situation of the deprived area of Delfan and considering the capacities of natural resources, economic investments and entrepreneurship were considered in three sectors of agricultural and animal husbandry entrepreneurship development, tourism service entrepreneurship development and mining entrepreneurship development. Considering the creation of job opportunities and employees in different sectors, the amount of household income and the amount of urban and rural poverty in the region were considered. The social subsystem of the sustainable development of the deprived area deals with the dynamics of the urban and rural population and migration and unemployment and the active workforce in the agriculture and animal husbandry sectors, tourism services and mines. The subsystem of natural resources and environment of the region focuses on the protection of lands, pastures and forests and water resources with regard to economic development. According to the subsystems of the model and the identified factors and relationships of each subsystem, the causal model was designed and the intensifying and moderating loops of the problem were explained.

According to the results of the sensitivity analysis of the model, economic sustainability strategies in the two policy categories of civil infrastructure development and investment in agriculture, tourism services and industry and mining; Social sustainability in four policy categories promotion of public awareness, entrepreneurship development, community-oriented empowerment and encouraging policies for entrepreneurship development and environmental sustainability in three policy categories of adherence to environmental requirements, sustainability of water resources and sustainability of soil resources was identified. In the following, by applying separate and combined strategies according to available financial resources; The behavior of model variables was investigated and compared. The implementation of selected policies shows that by spending financial resources of about 6 thousand billion rials in the region during three years by the institution of deprivation reduction and also the participation of the governorate and other executive bodies of Lorestan province in the development of the region's infrastructure and private sector participation in economic development investment; The increasing trend of urban and rural poverty will decrease after a five-year delay by preserving arable lands, pastures and forests, and the effects of poverty and deprivation will disappear permanently in the region. The proposed applied model of system dynamics in the policy of sustainable development of deprived resions and its efficiency is presented in the deprived resion of Delfan.

The growing concern about climate change has increased awareness about the essential role of forest ecosystems. About 36% of forest lands in the world have affected by forest fires. Fire affects the functioning of the ecosystem and forests and causes soil erosion and changes in the carbon cycle over the climate, vegetation and lands. This study aims to identify and analyze the policies for the management of man-made fires in the Zagros forests, with a focus on the causes of man-made forest fires (intentional or accidental)

Using the system dynamics approach, the model of forest fire management was designed in Vensim DSS software, version 6.4E with the participation of natural resources policy makers from the Lorestan province in Iran and the fire data of North Zagros forests. The model was simulated over a 20-year horizon. Based on the Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. forest fire management policies were investigated based on three main strategies: Prevention of fire incidents in the forests and pastures of North Zagros, command and management of fire incidents in the forests and pastures of North Zagros, and reconstruction of the forests and pastures of North Zagros after the fire incident. Finally, by applying the policies, each strategy was tested separately on the model and the results were compared.

Based on the results of the model simulation, the propose policies included: 
1. Providing forest protection equipment, 2. Matching the number of rangers with the density of forests, 3. Specialized training for rescue and protection forces, 4. Raising public awareness about the consequences of forest damage using local and national media, 5. Supporting NGOs and training local volunteers to protect forests and pastures, 6. Developing incident command systems, 7. Developing a decision-support system based on knowledge management of forest fires, 8. Developing an incident command system for inter-organizational coordination at the time of fire incidents and 9. Investigating and analyzing the root causes of each fire incident.

The proposed model is an application of the system dynamics approach for developing policies of man-made forest fire management, validated based on the fire data of the North Zagros forests in Lorestan province.

One of the major challenges in the management of construction projects is the lack of understanding of the mechanisms that cause delays in construction. In the meantime, government infrastructure construction projects have a more complex situation, so that the success in the timely implementation of a construction project within the framework of government laws is one of the biggest goals and concerns of managers and agents involved in these types of projects.

It can be the present study identifies the mechanisms of project time delay risks based on system dynamics in order to identify and evaluate policies for the timely implementation of construction projects. For this purpose, first the literature and background were examined and during the semi-structured interview with the participants of the research, the effective factors on the timely implementation of the Iranian government construction project were identified. In the continuation of the dynamic model of the timely implementation of the Anrani project, the simulation was carried out using the data of the infrastructure operation project of the first section of Mobarakeh railway, Sefidasht, Shahrekord.

After validation; According to the results of the sensitivity analysis of the system dynamics model, the exploitation policies during the construction project were identified in three strategies of providing project financial resources, project planning and control, and accountability of the project beneficiaries. In the following, it was also designed and applied to the model with selected combined policies. comparing the behavior of key model
The combined selected policy

This study aimed to analyze the cooperation network for psycho-social Recovery of disasters to evaluate the distribution of legal power among activists. The methodology utilized social network analysis to provide policy recommendations for enhancing the cooperation network for psycho-social recovery of disasters based on the laws governing the country’s reconstruction program and national crisis management rehabilitation provisions.

The research employed social network analysis to examine the cooperation system, creating a tool for evaluating complex communication networks to facilitate future cooperation among actors. An innovative approach was adopted for analyzing the cooperation system. Data included measures taken before and after the disaster, involving a total of 228 subjects and 27 actors responsible for and collaborators in the psycho-social Recovery program. A cooperation network matrix of actors was extracted based on the legal framework governing the program. Measures such as the degree centrality index, betweenness centrality, geodesic distance, density, and coherence were analyzed.

Overall, the findings reveal the attitudes of planners towards psycho-social Recovery measures post-accident and highlight challenges within the document of the national reconstruction and rehabilitation program. These challenges pertain to the principles of rapid intervention for physical and psychological rehabilitation, accessibility processes for temporary accommodation and housing recovery, attention to economic rehabilitation, and services for vulnerable population groups. Additionally, network analysis results indicate an imbalance in power distribution within the network, with power concentrated in the country›s welfare organization and the Ministry of Health, Treatment, and Medical Education. Consequently, expanding cooperation within the network to include actors such as the media, banks, investment funds, public governance institutions, and other key entities, as well as enhancing the role of legal power in decision-making processes among non-governmental organizations, programs, and budget allocation, municipalities, universities, research centers, the Ministry of Education, the Social Security Organization, social service centers, and the Ministry of Industry, Mining, and Trade, are areas for potential development within the cooperation network

Considering the insufficient cohesion within the cooperation network of psycho-social recovery activists and the imbalanced distribution of the legal power among activists in the current structure, the optimal implementation of psycho-social support services in accidents and disasters remains challenging. The current research represents an application of the analysis of complex communication networks, demonstrating its efficiency in analyzing the cooperation network of psycho-social recovery activists in accidents and disasters.

Background and objective:

 This study aims to analyze the network governance of safety and disaster management in Tehran by examining the laws of the fourth development plan and emphasizing the participation of key actors, including government institutions, the private sector, non-governmental organizations, and local communities using social network analysis.

Method:

 In this study, 22 laws with 101 issues were extracted from the fourth development plan, and 47 involved organizations, including 26 internal institutions of Tehran Municipality and 21 external institutions involved in the safety and disaster management program in the areas of transportation/traffic, urban safety/worn-out fabric, cultural/social issues, and intelligentization/management improvement were evaluated. The organizations and institutions were considered as the rows and columns of the governance network matrix, and the number of times of cooperation between organizations and institutions was considered as the entries of cells of the matrix. The matrix of actors’ cooperation network was analyzed based on the degree centrality, betweenness centrality, geodesic distance, density and cohesion.

Results:

 The results of the analysis of the governance system of Tehran city showed the planners’ belief in participatory governance for solving the safety and disaster management issues of the city. However, the participation of citizens, local communities, non-governmental organizations, and the private sector requires improvement and expansion of legal cooperation such that the lack of transparency in determining the roles, responsibilities, and powers of external institutions of Tehran Municipality, such as executive, legislative and supervisory institutions, and absence of policies for facilitating and encouraging the participation of private sector, economic institutions, universities, scientific and research centers, local communities and citizens need to be addressed by legislators and planners. They should support the network governance in solving disaster management issues in Tehran.

Conclusion :

The recommendations for improving the governance system of disaster management in Tehran for balancing the distribution of legal power among the responsible institutions and actors of Tehran’s safety and disaster management program include: Strengthening the cooperation of municipal and inter-institutional actors to solve key issues of safety and disaster management; strengthening the communication network and continuously exploiting the capacity of academic elites and consultants; strengthening the mechanisms for the participation of citizens, non-governmental organizations and the private sector; rising awareness and strengthening citizens’ trust in safety and disaster management programs using social media, developing incentive policies to utilize the capacity and participation of knowledge-based organizations and new and creative firms in solving safety and disaster management issues; developing incentive policies for the participation of managers and employees; strengthening the legal communication of financial and economic institutions and financing projects; and transparency and accountability of responsible institutions.

Despite the presence of legislation aimed at promoting the development of oil-rich and less-developed regions in Iran, the Western Ilam province continues to face significant deprivation in various areas, despite its abundant oil and gas resources. The primary focus of this study revolves around the intricate management of poverty through the implementation of a comprehensive intervention plan. The objective of this study is to identify policies for reducing deprivation through sustainable development in the oil and gas regions of Ilam province.

For this purpose and based on the sustainable development of deprived oil-rich areas, the dynamic model of the poverty system was designed with the participation of regional policymakers. After validating the model, the simulation was carried out on a twenty-year horizon. According to the behavior of the variables and the sensitivity analysis of the model, poverty alleviation policies were identified based on the sustainable development of deprived areas, including economic, social, and regional environmental sustainability. The results of the comparison and the behavior of the target variables were analyzed.

The findings from the simulation of the model revealed the effectiveness of selected combined policies including: 1) Providing government and non-governmental financial resources and investing in regional development and poverty alleviation; 2) Investing in job opportunities within the oil and gas industry; 3) Investing in job opportunities within the agricultural sector; 4) Investing in job opportunities within the tourism sector and international border customs; 5) Enhancing accountability and transparency to combat political corruption and undue influence in government resource allocation within the province; 6) Empowering the agricultural workforce in line with available job opportunities in the agricultural sector; 7) Empowering the workforce of the oil and gas industry in accordance with the job opportunities available in the industry to reduce non-native employment; 8) Empowering the workforce of the service sector according to the job opportunities of tourism and international border customs; 9) Investing in the productivity of water resources to manage the demand for water resources in agriculture and the oil and gas industry; and 10) Strengthening monitoring of the implementation of environmental requirements and the imposing penalties for environmental offenses for industrial development operators in the region along with the requirement to publish the sustainability report of oil, gas and petrochemical companies as the best poverty alleviation policies. These policies have been identified as the best poverty alleviation policies based on sustainable development in deprived oil-rich regions of Ilam.

The present study could demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed practical model for managing the complexity of poverty and implementing sustainable development policies in deprived areas, specifically focusing on the oil-rich regions of Ilam Province.

Due to the lack of attractiveness of agricultural entrepreneurship, a significant part of Iran's agricultural capacities has not been properly utilized. This study focused on identifying and analysing the obstacles to developing sustainable agricultural entrepreneurship in Iran. To this end, identifying barriers was conducted using the Fuzzy Delphi method and data were gathered through interviews and questionnaires. In the following, the obstacles were analysed using the ISM approach and with the participation of a group of 8 experts. An interrelationship diagram of the obstacles was designed at five levels. At the fifth level, the fundamental obstacles included a lack of sustainable agricultural entrepreneurship development strategies in the country's macro development plans, the dependence of financial resources of the agricultural sector on the government banking system and government subsidies, lack of sustainable agricultural entrepreneurship consulting services, insufficient attention to research and low participation on the part of universities and research institutes. This indicates the immense impact of such barriers on the trajectory toward the realization of sustainable agricultural entrepreneurship. At the fourth level, lack of binding laws to assure compliance with environmental standards lack of formal training; At the third level: Lack of incentive policies to increase private sector involvement in providing capital for owners of entrepreneurship ideas, a lack of recognition of opportunities in line with the region's climate, lack of distribution channels in the target markets of sustainable agricultural entrepreneurship opportunities, and lack of social development toward creating values and establishing innovative and creative sustainable agricultural businesses; At the second level, lack of knowledge on agricultural entrepreneurship opportunities in optimizing cultivation and water consumption patterns, lack of product pricing systems, and inappropriate marketing; and at the first level, lack of investment in knowledge-based and technological opportunities have been identified as the most susceptible obstacles in realizing sustainable agricultural entrepreneurship.

The covid-19 pandemic, one of the complex situations with high uncertainty in decision-making, has faced a crisis in socio-economic systems for more than two years. Municipalities are considered as key crisis management organizations due to the wide variety of services they provide to citizens. The current research, by designing a soft system intervention, has developed the crisis management system of the Tehran municipality for the covid-19 pandemic by using the combined approach of soft systems and social network analysis.

First, the measures of crisis management of Tehran municipality were investigated and the actors and knowledge axes of crisis management of Tehran municipality were identified. In order to analyze the power position of actors in the cooperation network; The two-dimensional matrix of actors-actions of formation and cooperation network of crisis management was analyzed based on the indicators of degree centrality and betweenness centrality. Next, a combination of actors was selected and based on the design of a soft system intervention, the situation of the problem was analyzed and an rich picture of the problem was drawn. Then, according to Parsons' theory of social systems, the system was analyzed from political and structural, economic, social, cultural, and legal perspectives, and based on the CATWOE analysis, a relatively agreed root definition was considered, and the components of the ideal system according to the analysis The stages of crisis management including the ideal system before the crisis, during the crisis and after the crisis were identified and the development model of the Covid-19 pandemic management system was designed.

In general, the findings indicate that the cooperation network of activists has a high density and cohesion, however, it seems that the position of some activists needs to strengthen the position of power in the crisis management structure. In comparing the current system and the ideal system of pandemic crisis management, the solutions have been presented according to the analysis of crisis management stages, including the targeted activities of developing the system before the crisis, during the crisis and after the crisis agreed upon by the participation of key actors.

Considering that the performance of crisis management during a pandemic is highly dependent on the level of preparedness before the crisis, it is expected that according to the components of the ideal system before the crisis and during the pandemic and targeted activities The development of the system on how to prepare and respond to similar crises in the future should be considered by city managers and crisis management policy makers in Tehran. In addition, on the eve of the recovery stage after the corona pandemic crisis, the attention of city managers to maintain a critical and rethinking position of urban management experiences in the covid-19 pandemic is more important than ever.

In developing countries with inefficient economic systems and poor tax systems and without mechanisms of citizen participation in the supply of urban costs, the municipal revenue supply system will incline toward unsustainable income resources. Providing sustainable economic resources is one of the most critical challenges for urban management planners and policy-makers. Considering the importance of the role of Tehran metropolis in the urban and national economy, the present study is aimed to identify the complexity of the economic capital acquisition system based on the "competitive advantage of nations" model and with the participation of the Tehran urban management and investment decision-makers and also to identify the environmental determinant factors and extract the cause-effect relationships of the economic capital acquisition system to find the competitive strategies of the development of the economic resources acquisition system in Tehran urban management.

The present paper uses the hybrid fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making approaches, including the two-stage Delphi technique to identify the factors affecting the subsystems of the "competitive advantage of nations" model, the fuzzy AHP to perform the paired comparisons and prioritize the factors, the hybrid fuzzy DEMATEL and SNA (social network analysis) approaches to analyze the network and extract the applied causal relationships. The participants included 12 elites from among the chiefs of the investment offices of the 22 municipal districts of Tehran and the experts introduced by the International Relations & Affairs of Tehran Municipality, who were selected using the purposeful sampling method. The research problem was investigated and analyzed using the fuzzy structure, considering the ambiguity and complexity of the relationships and the available approximate information.

After the review of the literature on the economic capital acquisition in urban management, based on the "competitive advantage of nations" model, initially, four economic resource acquisition systems (production factors, demand conditions, strategy and structure, and supportive industries), the governmental factors, unpredicted events, and 15 subsystems were determined (Fig.1). In the first stage, a total of 97 factors were ranked and refined (filtered) based on the consensus of the elites and using the Likert scale. In the second stage of the Delphi technique, to provide an opportunity for self-revision and assessment of the opinions of others, we again referred to the elites and, subsequently, a total of 65 factors were finally agreed upon and approved based on the elites' consensus. Figure (2) illustrates the Pareto diagram of the identified influential factors. As can be seen in this figure, the production factors with 18 factors ranked first in terms of the factors affecting the economic resource acquisition and the strategy and structure with 17 factors ranked next to it. Figure 1- Economic resource acquisition factors system based on the "competitive advantage of nations" model (res: findings) Figure 2- Pareto diagram of factors affecting the economic resource acquisition based on the "competitive advantage of nations" (res: findings) The assessment of the effectiveness of the systems showed that the external factors, including the government that is out of the control of the capital acquisition system in urban management, had the highest effectiveness with a weight of 33.8%. Next to it, the competition structure and strategy, with a weight of 33%, were the most influential factors in the capital acquisition in Tehran. Subsequently, the factors of production with a weight of 16.8%, the supportive industries related to urban management with a weight of 8.4%, and domestic demand for urban services in Tehran with a weight of 9% exhibited the lowest effectiveness. By investigating the system and subsystems of the model, it can be concluded that although the elites believed that the factors, which were out of the authority of the urban managers, were among the most critical factors affecting capital acquisition, the role of urban managers is the most important influential factor in those areas that are within the authority of the urban managers. In the next stage, in order to find the key factors, considering the results of paired comparisons of the factors, a total of 30 critical priorities, including 32 influential factors, were selected. Afterward, the 32 identified factors were analyzed using the DEMATEL and SNA approaches to extract the cause-effect relationships and extract the network relationships. Subsequently, to depict the relationship network and analyze the relationships between the factors, the total effect matrix was analyzed with a threshold bound in UCINET software based on the degree centrality index, and betweenness centrality index and, thereby, the relationship network was drawn using NETDRAW software. Figure (3) illustrates the cause-effect relationships of the factors affecting the financial resource acquisition in the Tehran metropolis based on the degree centrality index.Figure 3- Relationship network of the factors affecting the economic resource acquisition based on the degree centrality index (res: findings) (the magnitude of the nodes has been set based on the magnitude of the degree centrality)Based on the results of the SNA analysis, using the available expert human forces (P12), the agreement or opposition of the country's political position with the capital acquisition (S23), the probability of the occurrence of war and chaos (O16), and the urban infrastructures in the investment areas (P53) were identified as the causal factors in the network. In addition, the factors of the capital acquisition strategies (S12), the participation of the domestic companies in invested industries (I22), the supply of capital through accessible facilities in specialized industries (P23), the supply of capital through the stock market and OTC facilities for investors (P22), the structure of the demand sector with regard to the needs of the real-person citizens and legal entities of the city (D31) were determined as the most effectible factors. Furthermore, apropos of the factors with a high betweenness centrality, the factors of the capital acquisition strategies (S12), the regional knowledge for foreign investors (P42), the participation of domestic companies in the invested industries (I22), the decision-maker headquarters' convergence and consensus on the spatial marketing strategies (O22), and the innovation in the urban management services-related supplier industries (I12) were identified as the key factors that played a crucial role in the competitive advantage and capital acquisition.

Considering the results of the present study on the development of the economic resources acquisition system based on the "competitive advantage of nations" model in Tehran urban management, the following recommendations are presented by the authors:Developing the government's collaboration with the municipality in the acquisition of investment opportunities in urban management; Coordinating the governmental position and policies with the investment acquisition and applying incentive policies for the private sector and attracting foreign investors; Maintaining security and stability to reduce the risk of war and increase the attractiveness of urban investment; Planning for the development of the infrastructures required for the acquisition of investments in urban services; Supplying the required capital through specialized industrial facilities and capital market facilities and the participation of the companies working in the field of the opportunities of investment of different industries in urban services; Using specialized human forces for the acquisition of investment opportunities in urban management; Compiling the capital acquisition strategies in urban services in an integrated form through strategic planning of urban management; Developing the regional knowledge and accessible specialized data on the investment opportunities in urban management; The convergence and consensus of the decision-maker headquarters on the spatial marketing strategies and urban branding;
Providing the ground for innovations in the urban management services-related supplier industries.

The productivity of the human capital of the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran plays a pivotal role in achieving effective defense-security readiness to carry out the mission on time and to achieve the expected results by using the existing inputs of the defense sector and inputs available in the national and international environment. In this research, modeling and simulation of AJA human capital productivity system has been done and focused on identifying AJA human capital productivity promotion policies. For this purpose, after reviewing the literature, first using the data of the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the participation of AJA human capital development policy makers, a dynamic model of AJA human capital productivity is designed and after validating the model, the behavior of key model variables on the horizon Ten-year simulation (1400-1410) was analyzed. According to the behavior of variables and the results of the model sensitivity analysis test, the proposed policies in three strategies: Development of AJA intellectual capital; Development of the infrastructure of the administrative system and Development of motivational system of AJA intellectual capitals were identified and applied separately and in combination on the model and the results were compared and analyzed. According to the findings of the model simulation, the selected hybrid policies include: Allocation of financial resources to the development of human capital AJA; Documenting and recording the experiences of AJA princes and senior officers; Cooperation with national and international knowledge poles; Free flow of information and intelligent processes; Organizational support and improving the quality of life and work; Job enrichment in order to improve perceived identity and Authority and freedom of action of decision makers in order to develop organizational innovation and entrepreneurship are presented as the best policies to improve human capital productivity.

The Water-Food-Energy NEXUS is a framework for building a governance system that aims to facilitate cross-sectoral partnerships and improve and strengthen coherent policies for planning and governance. Accordingly, the present study analyzes the water governance structure focused on the Water-Food-Energy NEXUS and evaluates the power distribution of responsible institutions and partners in the governance structure of water resources management in Iran. according to the Sixth Economic, Social and Cultural Development Plan. For this purpose, the cooperation network was reviewed based on the legal duties of the responsible institutions and organizations in the axes of water resources development program, agriculture, environment and natural resources and energy. Examining the rules of the development plan shows that attention to the Water-Food-Energy NEXUS in the water governance structure has been neglected, and a realistic understanding of cross-sectoral conflicts and the anticipation of conflict resolution mechanisms require serious attention in the plan. Considering the number of collaborations of network actors, the formation network matrix was analyzed using Ucinet and NetDraw software based on the indicators of degree centrality, intermediate centrality, density, geodetic distance and cut points. Findings Analysis of social networks, considering the concentration of power in the Ministry of Energy in the current governance structure, emphasizes on strengthening the position of power of the Ministry of Jihad Agriculture in line with water demand management policies and strengthening the relationship between financing institutions and water resources development laws. Also, strengthening the role of monitoring and inspection institutions in order to increase transparency and accountability, strengthening the legal relationship between universities and the national technology and innovation system to support the knowledge-based economy, and developing the participation of local communities and non-governmental organizations in decision-making. Taking from other expandable points is the structure of the country's water governance.

More than 77% of the regions in Iran are classified as medium to very deprived areas from the point of view of economic, social and environmental sustainability indicators. Since the failure to provide appropriate platforms for development governance is considered as the reason for the failure of development programs, the present study investigates the development governance system of the deprived areas of the country and emphasizes the role of network governance in solving problems of complex systems; It has analyzed the power distribution structure among the legal actors of the sustainable development of deprived areas of the country. For this purpose, after reviewing the laws and regulations of the deprived areas of the country, based on the laws of the 6th five-year development plan, 38 legal responsibilities and 39 institutions/organizations responsible and collaborators for the development of the deprived areas of the country were extracted. The matrix of actors' cooperation network by using the indicators of degree centrality, betweenness centrality, density and coherence; Geodesic distance and intersection points were analyzed. The findings of the analysis of the network governance structure of the development of the deprived areas of the country indicate the concentration of decision-making power in the government and the imbalance in the distribution of power between actors, and without fundamental reform of the governance structure of the development network of the deprived areas of the country, we cannot expect to solve the problems of socio-economic complex systems in the deprived areas of the country.  Finally, the policy proposals for the development of network governance according to the results of the review of national laws and regulations and development plans and the results of the analysis of the governance network for the development of the deprived areas of the country in the direction of balancing the distribution of legal power between responsible and cooperative institutions based on opportunity The participation of key actors including  state institutions, private sector and popular institutions in the decision-making process is presented.

Companies operating in the petrochemical industry have faced many problems due to unbalanced and unsuccessful performance in predicting and controlling environmental complexities in developing and even maintaining market share and using cost-effective systems. This study aims to model and simulate the dynamics of the production system and the cost price of petrochemical products in Takht-e-Jamshid Petrochemical Company (TJPC) as a start-up company; and suggest solutions for reducing the cost price.

According to the complexity of the system and its inherent dynamism, System Dynamics (SD) approach has been applied to model and simulate the production system of TJPC using the time series data of the company. Furthermore, different structural and behavioral tests and sensitivity analyses have been performed to validate the model.   

Five strategies were developed based on the simulation and sensitivity analysis results and the planners' viewpoints. They were i) increasing the production budget of raw materials and reducing the budget of production capacity expansion; ii) increasing the research and development budget; iii) increasing the percentage of profit allocation to employees’ rewards out of the accumulated profit of the company; iv) increasing the budget of purchasing spare parts and equipment; and v) increasing the shareholders' capital to launch development plans. In addition, individual and combined strategies were incorporated into the model's structure. According to the results, implementing the four combined solutions reduced the cost and increased the company's profit in the simulated time horizon, simultaneously and significantly.

Some factors affecting the production and cost systems were considered as exogenous variables. For example, fluctuations in the selling prices of goods and purchasing price of raw materials, arising from various sources such as changing exchange rates, inflation rate, and political relations, were not considered in the model. However, by the model's sensitivity analysis, the effect of each change on the system behavior is predictable.

The petrochemical industry has the highest volume of exports and added value of hydrocarbon resources. It produces millions of tons of polymer products and plays a crucial role in supplying feed to downstream industries, not relying on exports and preventing the sale of crude in the country. Therefore, providing solutions to reduce costs in this industry will benefit both the government and the people.

Reducing costs and increasing profits in the petrochemical industry will lead to the country's economic growth and reduce poverty in the society, consequently. Reducing costs and increasing profits in the petrochemical industry result in national economic growth. They also reduce poverty in society, consequently.

There is limited research in identifying cost reduction strategies in the petrochemical industry. The focus of most studies in other industry sectors is on reducing public costs in products' production and consumption cycle to seek cost reductions in marketing, distribution, and after-sales. The developed model addresses the dynamics of the complex economic system of a petrochemical company via modeling and simulation. Therefore, the developed system dynamics framework provides a guideline for modeling the cost reduction strategies in the petrochemical industry.

Natural disasters, such as earthquakes, create substantial financial and human costs for governments and communities. One of the most important factors in increasing or decreasing the losses and the number of human casualties during and after an earthquake is the existence of an efficient crisis management system. Considering the special location of Tehran city and the probability of occurrence of an earthquake in this city, and as to the high estimated financial and consequential damages, a dynamic crisis management model using system dynamics methodology is presented in this study to facilitate more efficiently managing the crisis by simulating activities after an earthquake crisis. Therefore, after modeling and validating the proposed model, the behavior of the main variables of interest, such as the number of people imprisoned and the number of casualties caused by the earthquake, are simulated up to 5 days after the crisis, considering continuance of the current trend as well as the adoption of the proposed policies presented by the Crisis Management organization. Suggested solutions include refurbishing worn out buildings, rescue training, and training how to deal with earthquakes through media and cyberspace with the help of campaigns. The research findings show that as for the estimated costs of implementing the three policies, a combination of the second and the third will work best to reduce the number of people imprisoned by the earthquake and the number of casualties. The findings show that considering the estimated costs of implementing the above three projects, pre-crisis training, despite its lower initial cost than other crisis management strategies, has a significant impact on reducing post-earthquake disaster. It will reduce the death toll from the current 10-point earthquake from 1,541,000 to 689,000 if the capital is provided around 1,000 billion Rials per year to implement the second and third policies.

The oil industry is the most important source of government revenue and acts a commanding power in the economy, and due to the strategic importance, high volume of transactions in the industry, the concentration of revenue flows in one point, the complexity and natural monopolies in the industry, it is quite vulnerable against corruption. This research is aimed modeling and simulating the strategic problem of corruption in the oil industry to develop policies for controlling corruption in a twenty year horizon. To this end, using the system dynamics approach, the complexity variables of the corruption problem as to the oil industry system were identified in the form of feedback loops in accordance with Parsons' theory of systems. After initial simulation of the model, considering the existing situation, the development of anti-corruption strategies and policies in the oil industry has been addressed. Three strategies, including reducing the opportunities for corruption in the oil industry, reducing the demand for corruption in the oil industry, and increasing the capacity to fight corruption, as well as combined policies, were investigated. The results of the policy implementation for each strategy were analyzed, and a combination of three strategies was presented as the best anti-corruption policy in the oil industry of Iran.