جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « رشد شهری » در نشریات گروه « جغرافیا »

In this research, an attempt has been made to provide futuristic strategies in urban water supply and management by estimating the population, consumption of citizens in region 5 and identifying the influencing factors on urban water supply and management, and to find the best futuristic strategy. It was used for short-term use in the 5th area of Tabriz.In this research, the population was predicted using the People software, and then each component was weighted using the Ahp model, and the best strategy was selected using the ExpertChoice software.Among the strategies (strategies to reduce water wastage, intelligentization of water infrastructure, education and information, incentive and punishment policies, increasing water knowledge, economical technologies and modern water resources) presented in order to improve conditions, the strategy of intelligentization of water infrastructure with a coefficient of 0.310 The title of the most optimal strategy has been introduced.Traditional and old strategies of urban water supply and management mechanisms will not be responsible for future cities and their population growth; Therefore, in order to improve its fields, forward-looking strategies have been presented and actions should be taken to change the ineffective traditional organizations. In this article, an attempt has been made to choose the most optimal strategy for the 5th region of Tabriz by presenting several active and passive strategies in the field of supply and management and identifying the major influencing factors in the water supply process of Tabriz city.

The rapid growth of Tehran's population and the increasing need for land to respond to the needs of a residence, activity, urban services, etc., caused cities caused the city to move forward in its surrounding lands and changed land uses significantly and quickly. This paper aimed to investigate these changes and their futures in district 22 of Tehran Municipality. It has a descriptive-analytical method and the data is obtained from documentary and library sources. The process of changes and the existing situation were analyzed qualitatively and descriptively. To identify the drivers of future changes, a structural-interpretive model has been implemented using Mic-Mac software. For this purpose, all the land uses and activities (64 land uses and activities) were extracted and listed. Then, by implementing the Delphi method with the participation of 8 experts, 25 possible land uses were determined. After completing the matrix, the nearest rounded figures to the average numbers which were inserted by the experts, are the basis of the analysis. Finding showed that before the formation of the district, in 1972, the urban fringe of the district, large-scale urban land uses such as sports, research-educational, recreational and military land use, as well as urban and residential complexes, established in agricultural and vacant lands.  Then, constructed settlements, parks, and green spaces as well as recreational, military, research-educational lands and roads, were established here. The analysis of drivers also showed that in the future, out of a total of 25 possible land uses, forestry, eco- tourism, constructiing villas and secon homes, parks, malls, military spaces, stadiums and sports places, and roads and transportation terminals cause to main changes on the structural-physical of the studied fringe.

Attention to the physical development of the city is a basic necessity in urban development programs. In Iran, the rapid physical expansion of cities in the form of unplanned and uneven growth for various reasons, including uncontrolled migration, is one of the main problems of cities, which is a phenomenon called superficial scattering of growth results of this species. The scattering of urban areas and its numerous economic and environmental effects have led urban experts to explore strategies to address this. One of these strategies is smart growth theory. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the indicators of smart urban growth in Sari urban areas. The present research is applied in terms of purpose. The research method is descriptive-analytical due to the nature of the problem under study. In order to analyze the data, in addition to citing documentary and library studies, statistical analysis have been used. Finally, the ranking of each area of Sari in terms of smart growth has been evaluated using the WASPAS model. . The results showed that there is inequality between regions in terms of smart growth indicators. In fact, smart growth indicators in the four regions of Sari have an unbalanced distribution.

Urban transportation infrastructure and land use system have reciprocal impacts on one another. However, extant research emphasizes the role of land use in the development of the urban transportation system, while the influence of transportation infrastructures on urban expansion has been predominantly neglected. Hence, the objective of the present investigation was to examine the role of urban transportation infrastructure on the constituents of urban growth in the city of Tehran, employing time-space trends with a particular focus on intra-city highways.

The current "explanatory-evaluation" study was carried out using transportation and traffic data from Tehran city spanning the period of 1995-2020. Through the establishment of a quantitative analysis methodology based on shared indicators between transportation and urban growth, data collection and analysis were conducted in four sequential stages.

The impact of highways on the urban expansion of Tehran has been identified across various significant dimensions. These include the establishment of a center-periphery configuration of population density, the controlled development of transportation infrastructure, extensive functional transformations in peripheral regions, the emergence of secondary functional nuclei on the outskirts of the city, and simultaneously, increased centralization in the core of Tehran's Central Business District. Additionally, there are indirect repercussions on land prices and real estate. These collective tendencies have ultimately culminated in the formation of an integrated metropolitan area.

To effectively manage and regulate urban growth, it is imperative to strike a balance in the role of the urban transportation system. This entails the amalgamation and harmonization of urban transportation policies with land use policies. This integration should be embedded within the framework of urban development plans, including comprehensive and detailed urban plans, as well as other management strategies. Furthermore, the control of urban growth must be given due consideration.

One of the inevitable consequences of the ever-increasing growth of the world’s population is the expansion of urbanization. So, it is very important to provide a vision of the spatial development of cities with the aim of understanding the correct pattern of city growth and providing the necessary infrastructure. Since Qom metropolis faced urban growth and has recorded 95% urbanization, this research focused on the spatial development of urban lands around this metropolis. First, the land use/cover and the urban growth merit maps were produced. Land use/ land cover maps of the region for the years 2000, 2010 and 2020 were produced using the random forest method in the Google Earth Engine, and the urban growth merit map for the years 2000 and 2010 was produced using MCDM analyses based on GIS. Finally, based on the ANN-CA-Markov and SVM-CA-Markov algorithms, 2020’s land use/cover maps were simulated. The validation of the models showed that the SVM-CA-Markov algorithm with the ROC (0.96) was more accurate and was chosen as the optimal algorithm for modeling the horizon of 2040. The results indicate the increasing spatial development of this metropolis. The area of urban land in this region will increase from 139.62 square kilometers in 2020 to more than 183 square kilometers in 2040. The evaluation of the results can help the relevant managers in order to take necessary policies to manage the situation as best as possible. This importance can be realized through planning for the regular development of the road network, the expansion of urban green spaces, etc. official organizations and local officials should have a purposeful monitoring of this issue, while having full control over the development directions of this metropolis.

In recent years, improving the quality of life has become one of the most important goals of urban planners. One of the fields of manifestation of this concept is in the villages-cities. The process of upgrading rural settlements to cities, as one of the main policies to improve the quality of life in rural areas, has caused many villages to be upgraded to cities in the past decades. In this article, a multi-dimensional comparative evaluation of the components of the quality of life of residents has been done with an emphasis on the policy of upgrading the city in the researched areas. A statistical test was used to evaluate the residents' satisfaction with the quality of life in two periods before and after the upgrade. Analyzing the descriptive statistics shows that the upgrading of the settlement has not been able to cause satisfaction in Masiri and Sepidar cities. While Bostan has relative satisfaction and the coupon is in the best condition among the four cities. According to the median test, the two cities of Kopen and Sepidar are in the best and worst conditions in terms of satisfaction with the performance of the municipality. Also, according to the Chi-Square test, Masiri and Sepidar cities before upgrading and Kupan and Sepidar cities after upgrading the settlements have the best and worst conditions in terms of residents. Among the reasons for the weakness in the cities of Masiri and Sepidar, we can mention the weakness in the performance of urban bodies in the field of improving access conditions, lack of proper access, lack of proper transportation system, improper access to gas stations, lack of desirable changes in various economic fields, including employment and residents' income, etc.

Statement of the Problem: 

Many cities around the world are misusing their natural resources due to their spawl growth. A few approaches have been proposed to prevent such a situation and achieve a form of urban growth that meets the needs of today's urban society while preserving the environment and natural resources. The most acceptable one is smart growth.

The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the indicators of smart urban growth in District 1 of Karaj municipality.

The data of this descriptive-analytical study were gathered from both documents and a survey. First, the 18 indicators were calculated and analyzed separately. Then, the AHP method in Expert Choice software was used to assign a coefficient for each indicator by 3 sample experts. The urban growth situation is being determined using an invented model. The study area locates in the northeast of Karaj city and it has an area of 859.4 hectares and a population of more than 120 thousand people.

Findings indicated a large gap between urban growth characteristics of the study area and smart growth indicators. The value of sprawl growth was 2.63 and it was close to Ln15 (Number of the neighborhoods). The result of the land use mixing formula was 0.6 which is closer to 1 (maximum land use mixing) than to 0 (uniform land use). The figures of building density indicator were between 70% to 210%. However, the figures for most indicators showed that totally, the study area was in a moderate state of urban smart growth criteria.

Innovation: 

Combining objective and subjective data with a syntactic approach that pays attention not only to physical growth but also to social and economic aspects is the innovation of this study.

With the increase in the number of people living in urban areas, urban expansion is increasing all over the world. The rapid expansion of cities as a major factor in the evolution of urban forms in recent decades has become an important issue in spatial planning and urban management. Spatio-temporal measurement and analysis of urban forms can provide a good basis for making decisions about cities and regions with rapid physical growth. Urban form as spatial configuration of fixed elements in metropolitan area has significant effects on physical and mental activity and health, transportation patterns, social interactions, environmental quality, climate change, and human well-being. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to analyze the Spatio-temporal evolution of urban form in metropolitan areas of Iran.The General Census of Population and Housing from 1986 to 2016 and Landsat satellite images in 1987,2000 and 2017 have been used in this study. The general population and housing censuses were used to study demographic changes and Landsat satellite imageries were used to generate urban land maps in the study area. 24 Landsat TM and OLI images were used to generate urban land maps using the Maximum Proximity algorithm in ENVI software.

Suburban settlements are one of the obvious consequences of urban development in which rural-urban migration and urban migration play a key role. Suburbanization is defined as the growth of urbanization in the surrounding areas and the process of converting residential areas with a rural to urban nature. The purpose of this article is to investigate the factors affecting the growth of suburban settlements in Birjand. The type of research is based on the purpose, application and research method is descriptive-analytical. Data collection was done by library and survey method. The statistical population of heads of households in six villages of Pirashahr, Birjand, including 6423 resident households, 156 people were selected as a sample using Cochran's formula. The sampling method is probabilistic and stratified random. The data obtained from the survey of heads of households in the study area were analyzed by Spss and smartpls software. The results show that of the 4 factors extracted, the most important factor in the growth of suburban settlements is the economic factor with an impact factor (0.783), the second factor, the social factor with an impact factor (0.152), the third factor, the physical factor with Impact coefficient (0.40) and the fourth factor is environmental factor with impact factor (0.099). In the field of economic factors; Cheap land and housing prices, in terms of social factors; Existence of security in the field of physical factors; Improvement and strengthening of houses, residential construction and villa construction, and in the field of environmental factors, clean climate, calm and quiet environment has had the greatest impact on the growth of suburban settlements in Birjand.

In recent years, urbanization has been one of the most significant processes of change in society, which is usually accompanied by the destruction of agricultural and natural lands. In their decision-making processes to protect the urban environment, managers need to properly consider the extent and direction of urban growth. The purpose of this study is to predict changes in urban land use in the city of Tabriz, using the SLEUTH urban growth model. The output of the model predicts the growth rate and direction of the city by 2050. The five coefficients obtained for the study area show that according to the historical scenario, the birth rate and the diffusion coefficient are dominant. The high rate of fertility in this area indicates that the probability of converting each urban cell to a city center diffusion cell is high, and as a result, the growth rate of the new diffusion center in the covered area is also high. The high emission coefficient indicates the high probability of new urban spots resulting from spontaneous growth and their transformation into new centers of urban growth. The results of validation using Kappa coefficient show that the modeling has an accuracy of 97.72%. The obtained results can be used to predict the change of urban land use. The obtained results are the outcome of instrumental rationality, and therefore their application requires a critical approach to them.

The expansion of urban areas is an issue that has preoccupied planners and researchers for many years and the interest on these issues is expected to continue in the future. Such that Nowadays spatial distribution analysis, modeling and prediction of temporal variation and characteristics structure of cities - a place which has become an important research topics. Urban sprawl, a kind of urban poor is one of the major concerns of urban planners and managers. In recent decades, urban growth analysis from different perspectives to an operation essentially has become essential for many reasons.present research approach with" analysis to evaluation and ranking services the amount of thirteen districts in the triple city Noorabadi Mamasani the dependencies of Fars province. First quarters to enjoyment of these services with the use of the coefficient of Models changes and statistics examined and then using the model decision making several criteria to assess topsis and enjoying this urban slums of urban services has been dealt with. The results indicate that the discrepancies in the amount of enjoyment of the quarters of the city facilities is seen to be. So that the city central neighborhood hence of one and two neighborhood of Area two are High level. In the event that Eskan Ashaier and Dorahie neighborhoods Separated of the city center especially four and five neighborhood one area that has been scattered throughout the city Nurabad In the category of features and utilities are excluded. And Higher level includes dense and central areas the city.

Urban development is an inevitable subject due to the increasing population growth in cities. The city consists of open and living systems and a combination of socio-ecological systems. On the one hand, the hurried process of urban growth resulted in the land use change. Subsequently, this manner will damage to the structure, yield, and ecological processes in each city. Meanwhile, the use of ecologic knowledge with the landscape and resilience approaches can help to analyze the present situation and discover the optimal solutions. The resilience in the pattern of the natural structure of the ecological networks depends on the extent and intensity of the green spots. This research was carried out to determine the vegetation changes in Hamadan city between1982 to 2015 to achieve the evaluation of the ecological network structure in the urban development process with a resilience approach. In this study, a conceptual framework derived from ecological knowledge, resilience ideas and the use of modern technologies, such as GIS and RS, was designed to determine the bio-sensitive areas caused by the substructure urban changes. Besides, this study was performed to preserve the remaining biological resources in this area and preventing damage to the natural ecosystem of this city. A series of satellite imagery was classified in four categories such as such as open area, built land, communication paths, vegetation. After the above classification, these maps were processed and analyzed by the TerrSet software and three types of landscape metrics including creating, loosening and separating were reviewed to identify the types of land use changes in these years. The results show that the vegetated area decreased from 2820.2 hectares in 1982 to 1304.2 hectares in 2015 and, on the other hand, built lands and communication paths were degraded from 606.4 hectares in 1982 to 4274.2 hectares in 2015. In general, it can be concluded that this level of change shows a high urban development, decreases in plant vegetation, and its discontinuation so that the above changes have reduced the resilience of the city's ecology network. At the end of the study, numerous strategies were also provided for the restoration of the entire damage in the natural ecological network of Hamadan and its development.

In recent years, land use changes in different cities of Iran have caused problems such as rising earth temperatures, environmental pollution, declining agricultural lands, and so on. The increasing population of urban dwellers in Lahijan in recent decades has caused land use changes, and assessment of these changes in recent decades and predicting future changes is a necessity of the present study. By using remote sensing technology, the extent of land use changes can be examined. In this study, satellite images of Lahijan city from USGS site by using Landsat 5-TM satellite in May 1999, 2008 and Landsat 8-OLI satellite in May 2018, at intervals of about 10 years, have been prepared. Classification of satellite images has been done by using clustering method in GIS software. Then, the raster images are converted to vector images to calculate the cluster’s area. Finally, the forecast for land use changes in 2028 was done using the Markov chain model in TerrSet software. The comparison of the area of land cover and built environment areas in Markov's forecast for 2028 shows a significant increase in built environment compared to natural environment with land cover. The forecast shows that the area of built environment in Lahijan in 2028 is 1329 hectares and the area of land cover is 87 hectares.

Nowadays, studying urban expansion is very importantin developing countries. Rapid growth of cities has devastating environmental impacts,and irreparable economic and social consequences. Moreover, studying urban expansion is of great importance for managers and planners of a society. Land surface temperature (LST) is one of the important parameters in urban-regional planning.Urban heat, which is usually referred to as urban heat island, can affect human health, theecosystem, surrounding air, air pollution, urban planning, and energy management. The phenomenon of urban heat island (UHI) is closely related toland-use changes in urban areas, especially when natural surfaces turn intoimpermeable urban surfaces, and increases heat flux and reduces latent heat.

In this study, a collection of Landsat-5 multi-temporal satellite images received in 1986, 1989, 1993, 1998, 2001, 2008, and Landsat 8 multi-temporal satellite images received in 2013, 2015 and 2017, was used along with night images of the MODIS sensor recieved in 2001, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2017 (on the same day Landsat-5 and Landsat-8 satellite images were received). In order to classify land cover and calculate land surface temperature usingLandsat 5, Landsat 8 and MODIS sensorsatellite images, initial pre-processing (radiometric and geometric corrections)was performed.In order to classifyland cover in the study area, training areas were selected using Google Earth andthen, land cover classification was carried outusing Neural Network Algorithm. Since, classifying urban areas wasthe priority ofthe present study, Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) was also used.Ultimately, pixelidentified by classification algorithm and NDBI index was allocated tourban areas. A simple relationship suggested by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) was used to estimate land surface temperature from Landsat-5 imageries.Split-window algorithm was also used to estimate land surface temperature from Landsat-8 and MODIS imageries. Since, Landsat-8 and MODIS imageries were collectedwith only afew hours (or less than that)time difference, and their thermal bands’spectral rangeswere close to each other, Landsat-8 thermal bands’emissivity coefficient with a higher spatial resolution (30 m) was used to calculate land surface temperature from MODIS images.

Classifying land cover in Shahr-e Kordusing Landsat-5 and Landsat-8 imageries received in 1986, 1989, 1993, 1998, 2001, 2008, 2013, 2015, and 2017 indicated that in this31-year time period,residential areas were approximately duplicatedand reached from 1004 hectares to 2112 hectares. Analysis of land surface temperature maps using Landsat 5, and Landsat 8 imageries indicated that urban areas and areas with dense vegetation had lower surface temperatures compared to areas with thin vegetation cover. Therefore, land surface temperature of urban areas is lower than the surrounding areas. However, land surface temperature obtained from MODIS imageries indicated that land surface temperature of urban areas is higher at nights. Therefore, urban heat islands in this city occur at nights. Results indicated that with increasingexpansion of urban areas, urban heat islands also intensifyat nights.

Although, Shahr-ekordis a less developed urban area as compared to other Iranian metropolises,expansion of its constructed areas can stillhave negative effects on the environment and climate of the region. The present study investigates urban growth, and itsinfluence on land surface temperature and occurrence of urban heat island. Thermal maps produced in the present study indicated that daytime air temperature of this city was relatively lower than other regions. But this is not the case at nights: compared to other areas,residential areas have a higher temperature at nights. This indicates the existence of a heat island in the city, and possibly have adverse and devastating effects on humidity, reduces precipitation, changes local winds and the climate. Results also indicate that urban expansion have directlyaffected urban heat islands. Thus, urban heat islandshave intensified and expanded during this time period. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a direct relationship between land surface temperature and land use type.

More than half of the world’s human population has been living in urban areas. Irregular urban growth is considered a global issue; and it is predicted that more than 65% of the world population will live in cities by 2025. Rapid growth of urbanization not only has increased number of cities and population size, and accelerated their physical growth, but has also led to consequences for urban population health, environmental resources, climate and biodiversity. In some countries, rapid physical growth of cities has even surpassed their population growth rates, and this uncontrolled growth creates a phenomenon called the "urban sprawl" which is a complicated model of land use, transportation, and socio-economic development. Urban sprawl is a kind of urban development with a low, unordered and unorganized density. In this type of development, the urban land use model is changed; and further per capita urban land is available to people. Factors, which affect the incidence of these phenomena in cities, are among important aspects that should be studied in the field of urban sprawl. Many factors contribute to the particular pattern of urban development known as urban sprawl, e.g., consumer preferences for inexpensive lots, single-family detached housing, and for living in green low-density neighborhoods, and the wish for second homes. Existing studies have investigated numerous factors and processes ranging from macro level to local and micro levels such as failure of capitalist system (macro level) or local farmers' willingness to sell their lands with the aim of urban land change (local level). However, weights of these factors, their importance, time priority of each factor in the urban development process, their cohesion, and their effectiveness and impressibility are still unclear and there are a few studies with the same procedures as the present research. Therefore, this study investigated causes of urban sprawl with an emphasis on local factors in Gorgan City as one of central cities of Iran.

The present research is a descriptive-analytical and applied study. Data collection was based on the available documents about growth of Gorgan city and survey methods. Since the research subject had specialty-based nature and it was impossible to achieve desired results through traditional survey methods, statistical population of research consisted of two groups of experts in the research subject: 1) 30 experts who were highly specialized in the urban sprawl and urban development and worked in this field in Iran. 2) 150 local experts who were quite familiar with case study and participated in development of Gorgan City. Sampling was conducted using the snowball and judgmental methods. Research period was from 1956 to 2016. Data analysis was also performed using one-sample t-test, factor analysis, Shannon's relative entropy, Moran’s global index, and Geary's global coefficient.

Providing documents of urban development process, it became clear that the urban growth was completely external. Results of entropy, Moran and Geary's models indicated that there were two distinct models of urban growth: 1- Cluster growth in the northeastern, southern and southeastern regions, and 2- Urban sprawl with vacant lands between textures in the central, northern and northeastern regions. The most important factors of this phenomenon were then identified and they consisted of 36 variables including 9 macro and 27 local variables. Due to the inter-correlation of variables, 29 variables with 5 main factors were identified and classified as follows: Inappropriate and uncontrolled urban land use; inefficiency of urban management in urban control; ecological segregation; residents' preferences for marginalization; abundance of land; and issues and challenges of urban population. Afterwards, we performed the correlated analysis of urban sprawl factors. Accordingly, the inability of local management of city to control urban growth procedures specially outside the legal limits of city was the most important cause of this phenomenon in Gorgan and it included the following factors: failure to prevent the farmland speculation; inability to cope with illegal land subdivision by people; inability to cope with marginalization; inability to control land use of urban limits; inability to supply lands according to demand; impossibility of utilizing development capacity of barren and endowed lands within the city limits.

Urban sprawl of Gorgan city was resulted from interaction of various factors with an emphasis on local factors. Despite the fact that each of existing factors played roles in this case, they did not have the same weights and importance. Based on the evidence and results of the present research, it seems that some factors play key roles in this process and can act as productive factors of urban sprawl because unlike the American model, the urban sprawl of Gorgan as one of the northern cities of Iran is not resulted from the public prosperity or existence of vast areas for urban development, but it happens since the local institutions of urban management of Gorgan lack sufficient power to control urban growth procedures around the city and also surrounding villages. They also lack sufficient power to control land use and its type of use. These two factors, along with another two factors namely the residents' preferences to live in the suburbs and garden cities in addition to urban population problems will provide serious urban development challenges among which the physical-spatial contradiction in urban view is the most important issue. In other words, regions with good weather conditions will be vertically developed and join the surrounding villages, but development of low-cost districts of cities is dispersed and low dense. This type of development model may lead to internal development of city provided that urban limits are controlled and other requirements are met such as solution of barren and endowed land acquisition problems. Finally, the urban sprawl can be largely controlled by controlling main factors (mother) which are originated from local processes.

The physical developments of cities are considered as the main factors of changes in the land use and the land cover. Urbanization has put the living conditions of urban residents at the risk of destruction by creating the most extensive manipulation of human in nature. However, urban development and changes in the land use patterns cause widespread social and environmental impacts.These impacts include the reduction of natural spaces, the increase of the vehicles concentration, the reduction of the agricultural lands with high production potential, and some impacts on the natural drainage and water quality. These impacts are somehow related to the changes in the land use patterns as a result of human activities. Therefore, it seems vital to understand how changes in the land use and the land cover look in terms ofthe quantity of these changes and their special patternsbecause they have wide impacts on the environment, water cycles, natural habitats and so on.So the understanding and modeling of these changes are considered as important issues for environment managers, planners, and municipalities. On the other hand, physical development of the cities is eliminating and destroying fertile agricultural lands.

Review of the Literature:

One of these physical development effects includes development at the suburbs or countryside districtslocated beyond the administrative boundaries of the cities. This urban development has gone into the outer areas of the cities and can lead to changes in the land use over there. Furthermore, the physical urban development will eliminate and destroy high-quality agricultural lands.At their initial stages of formation, most of the cities in Iran were established near or among the high-quality agricultural lands with the purpose of using high-quality soil for agriculture and then these lands were gradually buried under the cities through villages development.Accordingly,agricultural activities were inevitably receded to the poor lands.The physical urban development is a dynamic and continuous process in which the city boundaries and its physical space increase in the vertical and horizontal directions both quantitatively and qualitatively. If this process is a rapid and unplanned process, the city space and body will be faced with some problems.

Landsat (MSS) satellite images taken on 1976/01/06, Landsat (TM) satellite images taken on 2007/29/06, aerial photographs 1:20000 taken in 1979, and land use map 1:250000 prepared in 1998were used in this study.  In addition, ENVI 4.7, IDRISI Selva and ArcGIS 9.3 software were used for data processing, manifesting, modeling, and getting output.Maximum likelihood method was also used to classify the uses.Analogy after classification was then used to examine changes in uses. Finally, logistic regression model was used for the anticipation of changes.According to the desired classes for classification (of urban and non-urban areas) before the collection of the urban information so as to prepare an actual map of the ground and a map from the training samples, first the colored pictorial data obtained from the satellite images were generally identified and the urban and non-urban areas were specified on them. Then,50 samples of each class were selected through GPS system by referring to the cities and a map was then prepared with a raster structure according to each of them. Finally, the maps resulted from classification were compared with the actual map of the ground.

The results of the images classification showed that about 168 hectares of the entire city were covered by the residential areas in 1976 and non-urban lands were about 6025 hectares. On the other hand, in 2007 the urban lands were about 1683 hectares and non-urban lands were about 4510 hectares. The results of the comparison of two classification maps related to the beginning and the end of the period showed that 1515 hectares hadbeen added to the urban area during this period due to the construction.When the location and level of the residential areas development were determined, logistic regression was used to determine the relationship between the factors associated with this phenomenon. Digital data such as distance from roads, distance from treatment centers, distance from educational centers, distance from arid lands, distance from parks and gardens, and the domain slope and direction were prepared at GIS environment as independent variables of the regression model and then a logistic regression relationship was established between the urban development as the dependent variable and the mentioned parameters.According to the results, Pseudo R2 amount was equal to 0.2808, so the model fitting can be considered tolerable. On the other hand, the ROC amount was equal to 0.8743, that is, close to 1 which shows high capability of the model for describing the changes and determiningthe areas prone to changes. A pictorial file was also extracted along with the model results through which the areas of urban developments can be anticipated in the future.Maximum-likelihoodcells for development are removed from the imagefile for each period in thefuture as the areas of urban development.

These models are appropriate for anticipating the urban development location and making urban managers and authorities able to avoid uncontrolled urban development through suitable administrative strategies.Land zoning around the city is suggested in order to keep valuable lands such as jungles and agricultural lands.

Over the past few decades, the increase of world’s urban population has resulted in uncontrolled urban expansions. Accordingly, determining urban development and sprawl should be taken into consideration.

This article aims at measuring the level of urban sprawl of the city of Kerman using remote sensing data from period of 1352 to 1397. For this purpose, 10 remotely sensed images were selected with an acquisition date interval of 5 years and the pre-processing, proccessing and classification methods were applied to the RS images using ENVI software. Afterwards, for different periods, built-up areas were extracted and assessed by these three indices: “Degree-of-freedom”, “Degree-of-sprawl” and “Degree-of-goodness”. For better interpretation, the city was divided into 8 triangles with same area in line with 8 geographic directions.

The findings show that during 1392-1397, Kerman had the most growth of built-up areas while during 1372-1377 this growth had the minimum extent. Moreover, during these 45 years, the most growth of built-up areas were accrued at the western zone of the city while northern zone had the minimum growth. Nevertheless, as the matter of fact, during 1387-1392, the city had the most sprawl expansion, while during 1352-1355, it had the minimum extent. Furthermore, during these 45 years, the most sprawl expansion were accrued at the eastern zone of the city while northeastern zone had the minimum sprawl expansion.

Broadly speaking, intensity of urban sprawl in the city of Kerman is explicit and indices of this study demonstrate it accurately.

One of the most important challenges of this era is the rapid growth of urbanization. According to the United Nations report, around 66% of the world’s population, equivalent to 6.4 billion will live in urban areas by the year 2050, while this number was only about 746 million people, equivalent to 30% of the world’s population in 1950. This increasing trend is followed by the issues such as providing citizens with proper housing, providing energy, health services, education, employment, transportation etc., which should be resolved by appropriate policies and solutions. In this regard, modeling urban growth might play a key role in guiding urban strategies. Planners have traditionally used various models to formulate urban growth. However, these models lack sufficient dynamism and mobility and do not take the social behaviors of individuals and their interactions into account. The shortcomings of the previous methods have led to an increase in the use of modern modeling methods like cellular automata and agent-based model, particularly when presenting a perspective of the future urban growth is expected. Although the use of agents is a common tool in the modeling of the earth systems, few studies have been carried out in this regard in Iran, and various existing foreign studies are not in full agreement with the existing situation yet, due to the complex nature of the land use change problem. Therefore, researchers are still trying to provide new models by focusing on available findings and different aspects of the problem. In this research, a multifunctional system has been developed for the simulation of the urban growth by integrating the irregular cellular automata and the agent.
Materials and Method:
The study area in this research is NajiAbad in the city of Kashan that is one of the city’s new districts. The texture of this district has taken shape in a designed and regular manner. The average area of its parcels is 250 square meters whose formation is mainly towards the northwest-southeast direction. Land use map of the year 2006 (1385), slope map, soil type, access map, floodway and river map were used in this research. The data of the year 1385 are used for the simulation of urban growth in 1392 and the results are compared with real data of 1392 and thus the results resulted from the model are evaluated. We have presented forecast of urban growth for the year 1400 subsequently. In the presented model, cadastral polygons act as irregular automata which have their own status and properties. In this model, the changes are updated in each replication, and each time step is considered to be one year. The first step in the evaluation model is the overall proportion of the land parcels which is one of the effective parameters in the decision-making process of the agents.
The calculation of the spatial proportion of the parcels for development is carried out by irregular cellular automata and based on four criteria of neighborhood, physical proportion, accessibility and constraints. Twelve effective factors were classified in proportion with these criteria and were normalized before the combination. The overall proportion of each land parcel has been calculated based on weighted linear combination function. In the next steps, the activity of the agents starts in the model. Many actors play roles in the development of the urban environment.
In this research, the agents are classified into 3 general classes of urban planning agent, developing agents and family agents. The family agents were classified into 3 classes of families with high, medium and low income according to the income level of the families. The urban planning agent estimates land demands and issues the segmentation permits for a number of lands. The developing agent calculates the profitability of the parcels, and segments those having separation permits and high profitability. The family agents search the environment and choose suitable land for habitation based on their preferences. This process is followed up until all family agents are settled and the demands are achieved. Results and Evaluation:In this research, the output of the model and urban growth map in the study area for the year 2013 (1392) is calculated based on the input data of 2006 (1385). In this research, each time step is considered to be one year. In order to evaluate the model results, real data of 1392 has been used. In this research, the error matrix was used to calculate the accuracy of the results and comparison criterion is Kappa index. The Kappa index is a value between 0 (nonconformance of the calculated and observed maps) and 1 (full match of calculated and observed maps). Although there is no global standard, the Kappa index greater than 0.80 is often considered as a criterion of the proper conformation of calculated and observed maps. The Kappa index in this research was calculated to be 71% based on the error matrix. In this calculation the area of the previous developed regions has been eliminated. Although the elimination of the area related to these regions relatively reduces the overall accuracy of the model, it leads to a more accurate evaluation of the results. The accuracies of the user and producer in the developed lands feature a higher overall accuracy of the model, which can be a reason for desirable design of the model and its adaptation to the reality. In this research, cellular automata were used to simulate the variations in the status of each land parcel in comparison with different spatial factors. Although the conventional cellular environment in cellular automata methods facilitates the possibility of urban growth modeling, it was attempted in this research to conduct modeling on the scale of irregular polygons of lands and in the form of base parcel. Although the use of cellular automata on this scale makes calculations more complicated and difficult, the results of modeling can be evaluated more realistically. In this research, the agents were classified into 3 general classes of urban planning agent, developing agent and family agents. The family agents were classified into 3 classes of families with high, medium and low income according to the income level of the families. The evaluation of the results with real data showed that the accuracy of the model was 71%. This study has been conducted in a vector structure and local scale that can be extended to other areas. This modeling can be done on a regional scale in future works.

This study is proposed a model of urban expansion based on cellular automata principles and fuzzy logic approach. The most effective indicators were first selected using the DEMATEL method. The weight of each indicator was then obtained with the help of the prepared structure using the Analytic Network Process (ANP). Three satellite images of 2003, 2007, and 2013 were used to simulate urban growth of Ahvaz in the year 2020. The selected base year was 2003. After performing preprocessing operations, the images were classified using the maximum likelihood method. The combination of fuzzy logic and the classic cellular automata model was made operational by defining the transition rules using the degrees of fuzzy membership. The Kappa index was employed in two stages to study accuracy of the images. The images of the base year were first classified and their accuracy was examined, and the accuracy of the simulated images with respect to reality was also investigated for the year 2007 and then simulation of the images of the other years was performed. Since the degree of accuracy of the model was considered acceptable, the linear regression model and the matrix of transition probabilities were employed for simulation in 2020. Results indicated the model enjoyed acceptable accuracy. It also yielded more realistic results in urban simulations compared to the classic CA method. Moreover, and growth and development of Ahvaz in different periods did not take place in any specific direction but rather was completely irregular and occurred in all directions.

Residential and employment attractions urge the population to reside in regions with appropriate potentials for development. The metropolitan regions of Iran have been attractive centers for the population; this attractiveness resulted in some changes in different spatial patterns. The present research examines the effect of spatial-physical, and demographic variables on metropolitan regions of Iran in order to achieve suitable planning for future spatial development of Iran. The objective of the study is to analyze correlation, centralization, and uniformity of distribution and composition of spatial patterns of development in the metropolitan regions. To do this, Shannon entropy, spatial Gini coefficient, spatial density index, and Kriging Estimator were employed. The results showed a trend that dictates on a decrease in concentration in metropolitan regions, which has manifested in different spatial patterns. In Tehran metropolitan region, the trend of development goes into polycentric with sprawl in the peri-urban and rural area. According to the development trend of population centers in Tehran, it can be said that at the same time of concentrated centralization, other settlements have played an effective role in the spatial structure of this metropolitan area, and strong road network has led to the formation of such pattern. In Isfahan metropolitan region, the spatial structure has changed into concentration. This has happened with an unbalanced distribution to a radial pattern. While Mashhad metropolitan region has a monocentric linear pattern, Shiraz shows a monocentric and sprawl in the periphery. This can be attributed to the small growth of settlements compared to the metropolis.