جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "swat model" در نشریات گروه "جغرافیا"

Today, despite many droughts and many problems in the agricultural sector, most of the villagers are migrating to the cities. Despite the high unemployment in the villages, handicrafts can be used as a suitable alternative in the country's villages and create sustainable employment. The aim of this research is to provide a suitable strategy to determine the effectiveness factors of needlework employment of rural women in Irandag sector of Khash city. The statistical population of the research is made up of women needlewomen of the Irandag department and experts (specialists and university professors). According to statistics, 911 women are working as members of the cooperative and are engaged in needlework. Among the first group (needlemakers), 270 women were randomly selected as the sample size using Cochran's formula. Also, the number of 30 people has been selected as a sample size in the experts section as a personal estimate. The SWAT model was used to analyze the findings. ANP has also been used to obtain the object weight in SWAT. The results of the research showed that the WO strategy or the revision or adaptation strategy has the most weight with a weight of 8.170 and it is the first priority. The weight percentage of this strategy is equal to 0.26%, which has a higher weight percentage than other strategies. Therefore, the proposed strategy resulting from the SWAT technique is the revision or adaptation strategy (WO(.

The aim of this study was to predict the flood zone in the context of climate change based on the scenarios of the Fifth International Climate Change Board's assessment report in Qarahsu Basin (Golestan Province). This research consists of two phases: climatic and hydrological. In the climatic phase, daily data of minimum, maximum temperature, precipitation and sunny hours of Gorgan Hashemabad Synoptic Station in the period 2001-2020 were simulated using LARS-WG statistical model and after ensuring the efficiency of this model in simulation Construction of meteorological parameters in Gharasoo watershed of Golestan province, to investigate the impact of climate change on runoff in the study area, data of three scenarios A2 (maximum scenario), A1B (medium scenario) and B1 (minimum scenario) of the model HadCM3 was scaled in the period 2021-2050 with a small LARS-WG statistical model. In the hydrological phase, precipitation-runoff is simulated using the SWAT hydrological model and after calibration (from January 1, 2012 to December 29, 2016) and validation of this model (December 30, 2016 to December 29, 2018), temperature and precipitation data. The output of LARS-WG model was entered into SWAT model and the changes of runoff due to climate change in future periods compared to the base period were calculated. The results showed that according to the estimation of LARS-WG model for the studied scenarios in the future periods, the average temperature of Qarahsu watershed will increase by 0.56 to 4 degrees Celsius. The amount of precipitation also decreases by 10 to 24% compared to the base period. Finally, the flood of the study basin is zoned in GIS environment by combining the average runoff map under scenario A2, distance from the river and the shape coefficient of the basin using Fuzzy-AHP method. According to zoning, 44% is at high and very high risk.

The present study analyzed changes in land use and its effects on the runoff of Qara Chai Watershed in Hamadan Province using the SWAT model. To this aim, Landsat OLI-TM satellite images of the years of 2001-2020 were used. First, the relevant images were obtained and the necessary pre-processing steps, including atmospheric corrections, were applied by using the FLAASH method. To increase the classification accuracy, the multispectral images were combined with the panchromatic images and the spatial resolution was enhanced up to 15 m. Then, the classification process was done by using the object-oriented method and the nearest neighbor algorithm. The SWAT model was utilized for hydrological simulation of the basin and SUFI-2 algorithm was applied in SWAT-CUP software for conducting sensitivity analysis, calibration, and validation. Due to the sensitivity of the model to the initial loss parameter, it was recalibrated based on the initial loss values. The values ​​of the coefficients for the calibration period were between 0.72 and 0.90 and the model validation results confirmed the calibration accuracy. Assessment of the efficiency of the model by using Nash Sutcliffe coefficients, p-factor, R, and r-factor indicated its high capability for simulating the related runoff.

The impact of climate change on hydrology and water cycle in nature is very serious and a little knowledge of these effects to deal with its consequences. In order to model the two watersheds of Telangu and Hosseinabad in Kerman province,. Also, by using the LARS-WG model, variables were predicted for the period from 2021 to 2060. In the other part of this study, to run from the SWAT model, sensitivity analysis was performed using the global sensitivity analysis method using 29 parameters. The results showed that in general, the temperature has increased in the next period compared to the previous period in the whole month, in all three stations this increase was less in the warm months of the year than in the cold months. Precipitation has generally increased and the highest monthly precipitation increase for all three cases is April, March and March, respectively Sutcliffe (ENS) is greater than 0.65. The results of evaluating the effect of climate change on the discharge of the basin show that in general the discharge of the Telango Bam watershed has been much lower than the Hosseinabad Rain watershed in the current period and in the future. In the next 60 years, the discharge of the Telango Bam watershed will increase compared to the current period, the discharges of January, May and July will increase and will decrease in the other months except September, which is unchanged. The general results of the present research indicate that in the near future in dry ecosystems similar to the study area, following the change in the rainfall regime resulting from global warming, the hydrological behavior of the basins will change, especially in the winter and spring seasons, and the occurrence of extreme rainfall and flood events in These seasons are more likely than before.

the object-oriented method in preparing the land use map of Darre Rood catchment area using Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 images in a period of 30 years, from 1990 to 2019 and its effects on changes in Darre rood river discharge it placed. The images were classified into fourteen classes and the changes in the area of ​​the classes revealed that the classes of irrigated agriculture, rainfed agriculture, rocky areas, residential areas, gardens and lakes with increased area and barren lands, pastures, forest lands and riverbeds decreased They were. To find out the changes in the river flow trend, SCS method was used which was implemented in SWAT model and according to land use in 1990 and 2019 in SWAT model was determined according to the digital elevation layer of the basin and all the necessary parameters to the model. Which included soil layers and land use changes and climate data were called into the model and two separate scenarios for 1990 and 2019 were used. The results showed that with the change of land use, the amount of CN in the second scenario compared to the first scenario increased by 5% and increased from 02.70 to 5.73, which due to the change in land use in favor of the basin becomes more impermeable to rain. Compared to 1990. Also, due to the increase in the type of vegetation, the amount of deep penetration has decreased from the first scenario to the second scenario from 257.09 to 97.9.

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing humanity that affects the sciences related to nature and environment. Changes in factors affecting climate change affect the hydrological responses of watersheds and this phenomenon affects the quantity and quality of water resources such as lakes, reservoirs and dams. Today, the development and progress of computer and computing technologies has had a significant impact on hydrological modeling. In recent years, conceptual and physical models based on the characteristics of watersheds for hydrological systems have attracted the attention of researchers. Due to the emergence of such developments, there will be complications in the process of hydrological modeling. Correct management forecasts in the field of water resources due to the lack of water resources, is one of the topics of interest in the institutions in charge of water resources management, which should use high-precision simulator models for long-term estimates and planning. Considering the crisis and shortage of water resources in Iran, the sub-catchment upstream of Zayandeh Rood Dam was selected as a case study in this research, and the hydrological processes in the sub-basins of Zayandeh Rood Dam were simulated and the inflow to the reservoir of Zayandeh Rood Dam was estimated. For this purpose, the water and soil assessment model SWAT has been used to simulate the rainfall-runoff process and finally to estimate the inflow to the reservoir. Based on the simulated runoff from the three sub-basins of Buin-Damneh, Qala Shahrokh-Chelgerd and Chadegan-Ceshmeh, the model showed acceptable results for the simulation in the three sub-basins mentioned by the model, and it was estimated from the algebraic sum of the three inflows that the mentioned error coefficients are equal to 0.86 has been obtained. This result shows the high accuracy of the models in the simulation

Land use change is one of the important factors in changing the hydrological flow, basin erosion and biodiversity destruction. Therefore, knowing the effect of land use change on discharge and suspended load is an inevitable necessity. The main purpose of this study is the efficiency test of the model and its usability as a simulation of the process of land use change on discharge and sediment is from the soil and water assessment model (SWAT) and SUFI2 program. Model simulation was performed for 29 years from 1987 to 2015, the first 5 years of which were selected for model calibration and the last 5 years for model results validation. Four statistical indices, r_factor, P_factor Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) and coefficient of determination (R2), the ratio of squared root-to-standard deviation (RSR) and the percentage of skewness (PBIAS) were selected monthly to evaluate the model. The accuracy of monthly simulation using NS evaluation index in the calibration and validation stage for flow and suspended load is equal to 0.65 and 0.49, respectively. The results of the study were considered acceptable according to the interpretive domains used in previous studies and indicate the satisfactory efficiency of the SWAT model in simulating the components of the impact of land use change on sediment and discharge in the Ojan Chay Bostanabad watershed. The results showed that the height of surface runoff increased by 1.15 mm and the sediment concentration increased by 1.5 tons per hectare per year.

Knowing the extent of erosion in each area and the amount of sediment load they produce, especially near dams, is very important and this leads to identifying the factors affecting each area and creating solutions to control or reduce sediment load to dam reservoirs. This effort has become a necessity. Therefore, by simulating runoff and sediment in Karun basin by SWAT model and performing the calibration process and reviewing the results of the stations and their sediment load, areas with higher susceptibility to erosion were identified. After identifying the critical erosion areas and in order to reduce erosion and sediment load of the whole basin, a plant filter was used to apply the management and protection strategies of the SWAT model. Evaluation of the results in this section showed that the implementation of plant filtration in some sub-basins can reduce sediment load by up to 28%.

To build and prepare the SWAT model, inputs such as topographic information, meteorology, soil, vegetation, reservoirs and management data were used. Daily temperature, precipitation information, location of meteorological and rainfall stations with dbf or txt extensions, topographic information in the form of digital elevation model with UTM coordinate system, Grid format and location of hydrometric stations and springs in tables with dbf extension were introduced to the model as well. Maps of waterways and rivers in vector form and land use and soil maps as raster from in Arc GIS 10.4 software are included in the model.One of the parameters required to simulate the basin by the model is meteorological information. In this study, rainfall statistics of 57 rain gauge stations and 8 hydrometric observation stations with a statistical period of more than 26 years have been used in the catchment area of ​​Karun River. In this research, the characteristics of the basin have been investigated using the digital model of DEM height with a cell size accuracy of 90 × 90 m and using the GIS geographic information system. For this purpose, with the help of Arc GIS10.4 software, the physiographic characteristics of the basin such as the area and average slope of the basin and river were extracted. Based on hydrological characteristics, Karun Basin erosion studies have been divided into 49 sub-basins and 424 hydrological reaction units.In this study, the region is classified into 5 categories. Accordingly, about 25% of the area has flat land and a slope of less than 5%; 12% have a slope between 5 to 10%; 9% have a slope between 10 to 15% and 8% have a slope between 15 to 20, and most of the area has sections with a slope of more than 20%, which covers more than 45% of the area.

Implementing a plant filter that is densely vegetated to reduce runoff flow and trap sediments can be in the form of combinations of meadows, grass, trees and shrubs. In order to innovate in the application of filters, the width of filter strips in all sub-basins is not defined uniformly, but according to the area of each sub-basin, the amount of filter is considered different and the filters are applied equal to 40% of the area of each sub-basin. After applying the plant filter, the results obtained from the sediment of each sub-basin were compared against the amount of sediment in each basin before the application of the plant filter. The results showed that the implementation of the filter can reduce the amount of sediment up to 28% in some sub-basins in some areas. By comparing the figures that show the effect of plant filter application in reducing sediment in each sub-basin and the slope map of the area, it can be seen that the areas that had more slope had a relatively significant performance due to plant filter application. In addition, the application of plant filters has often reduced the sediment load and the average sediment load of the entire basin by an average of 10.4%.

The purpose of this study was to estimate the amount of runoff and sediment load produced in Karun watershed and to investigate the implementation of plant filtration as one of the most effective management and conservation strategies to reduce the amount of sediment load in the entire basin. According to the topography of the region and the slope characteristics of the region, most of the area has areas with a slope of more than 20%, which covers more than 45% of the region, and land use of the region, which uses more than 46% of forests and vineyards. It has been covered with pastures with an area of ​​about 31% of the total use basin of the region and also the existence of livestock equivalent to the area which is equal to 11.29. Erosion control in this area requires strategies to reduce this sediment load, including the construction of dams. After simulation of runoff and sediment in hydrometric and sediment measurement stations and evaluation of SWAT model by good fitting coefficients (NS, R2) and uncertainty coefficients using SWAT-CUP model, the facilities and areas with higher erodibility were identified. Then, by examining the sediment load trapped behind the dams, the sediment measurement curve was modified and adjustment coefficients were applied to correct the sediment results of the area. Then, by presenting the use of plant filter as a management solution, the sediment load of the area and special erosion were reduced. The results show that the SWAT model has a high ability to simulate all the details of the area. This feature allows the model to be simulated accurately to identify any level of details in the area that the user needs. This model makes good use of the effects of rainfall, snowmelt, irrigation and withdrawal from dams or groundwater, which led to the results of good runoff fitting coefficients of acceptable values. Also, different thresholds of information layer overlaps were estimated to determine the number of hydrological units. Baes on this estimation, 696 HRU achieved better results and the use of 7-station data in determining the parameters selected for calibration increased the possibility of better spatial variation of parameters in the final calibration of results. The results of this study are given in the daily time frame; in fact, the results are estimated in 3 days, and the results are given in the daily basis.According to the proposed maps for spatial distribution of erosion, the upstream sub-basins have less sediment and the accumulation of sediment near the reservoirs of dams is higher, which made the areas more effective. Also, as other ways, the effects of using slopes or cultivation on level lines can be examined in these areas. In addition to the slope of the region, due to the high density of livestock in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, another factor of high erodibility in this area can be considered as overgrazing.Also, the results of the MPSIAC methods were closer to the results of the SWAT model than the current method of estimating the exchange rate. However, the reports of the Water and Power Company expressed the results of the EPM model closer to the results of the flood conditions.In this area, the SWAT model was not accurate enough in estimating sediment load due to the neglect of sediment volume in flood conditions in the sediment measurement curve. In order to solve this problem, in this study, the correction of sediment measurement curve by fitting two equations for flood and non-flood conditions was used.In the field of management solutions, among the solutions, the implementation of plant filters has had the greatest impact on reducing sediment load and in some sub-basins alone has been able to reduce the sediment load up to 28% of the sub-basin. Of course, in this study, a fixed value for the width of the filter strips is not considered, but for better filter performance, we considered the width of the filter strip in proportion to the area of ​​each hydrological unit, which is defined as a percentage of its area. Also, with the implementation of the plant filter, the amount of change in each HRU was investigated. The results in the percentage change scale of sediment rate showed well that the application of the filter in most hydrological units had very positive effects and had reduced sediment load with an average of 10.4%.

Researchers often examine hydro-climatological processes via Global Circulation Model (GCM) and hydrological model, which have been shown to benefit water resources management and prediction, especially at the basin scale. Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world(Ercan et al., 2020:53; Aryal et al., 2018:1). As per the IPCC report, the global temperature may increase by 1 °C to 5 °C by the end of the century (Bajracharya et al., 2018). Climate scenarios for both Global climate model (GCM) or simple analog models are often adapted to examine the effect of climate change on hydrology (Fereidoon and Koch, 2018). Hydrological models or rainfall-runoff models are essential for understanding the hydrological processes of river basins and supporting operational management of water resources characterized with large spatial and temporal variability (Tuo et al., 2016). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for a future projection of changes in the hydrological regime of the basin based on Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP) (Bajracharya et al., 2018).

The minab basin is one of the main sources of water supply to the Bandar Abbas. Minab basin is located in the east of  Hormozgan and north of Minab. The basin area is 10605 square kilometers.The basin has a hot desert climate, according to the extended demartern classification system.In this study, daily meteorological data from 1985 to 2018 including maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, relative humidity of 8 selected stations in the study area were obtained from the National Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) and discharge data 3 hydrometric stations Brentin Minab located at the exit the basin was prepared as a base station from 1985 to 2018 by the Ministry of Energy. Spatial data includes digital elevation model (DEM) data, runoff  network information, soil type, and landuse. In this study, 6 different climate models have been used under RCP2.6, RCP4.5   and RCP8.5  scenarios, including GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC-ESM, NorESM1-ME and CanESM2. The Minab basin simulation uses the SWAT model, which is a distributed and physical hydrological model that is often used to evaluate management decisions and climate change on hydrological processes. The main inputs of the SWAT model include the information layers of the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the soil layer and the land use layer, and the input microclimate variables of the SWAT model include daily precipitation, maximum temperature ,minimum temperature and discharge. The parameters of sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation with SWAT- tool and using SUFI2 program as one of the algorithms in SWAT-CUP software were determined and their sensitivity and uncertainty were estimated using this program. Statistical indicators have been considered for evaluating rainfall, temperature and discharge outputs.

Results and evaluations of 6 climatic models and in all three scenarios, RCP2.6 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to predict the future temperature and precipitation of Minab basin, it is stated that in all models and climatic scenarios, the temperature of Minab basin is constantly increasing until 2099, and the rate of increase in the minimum temperature will occur more than the increase in the maximum temperature in the future; about precipitation, the predictions are complex and uncertain, but in most models, the predicted amount of precipitation will be less than the observed value.The results of the influence of different climatic scenarios on the parameters of the Minab River regime indicate that is calculated the average of discharg under RCP2.6 scenario is equal to 5.2 cubic meters per second and in RCP4.5 scenario is equal to 5.08 and finally in RCP8.5 scenario is equal to 5.07 cubic meters. Therefore, it is inferred that discharge will have a decreasing trend compared to its observation period in the next period, and in the scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, will be followed by 39.1%, 40.3% and 40.4% of the discharge drop. Due to the future runoff values ​​of the basin, it seems that the Minab River will be affected by climate change and its discharge will drop by about 40%.

The evaluation results of climate models under RCP scenarios show that the maximum and minimum temperatures will continue to increase continuously in all climate models in the future, but the increase in the minimum temperature is greater than the increase in the maximum temperature. In the case of precipitation, complexity is high and uncertainty is expressed, but in all three scenarios, a decrease in future rainfall is indicated. The SWAT model is a hydrological model used to estimate the future discharge of the basin. The results of the numerical index of performance evaluation of the model under RCP climatic scenarios in simulating the runoff of Minab basin in the hydrometric station of Brentin Minab indicate the appropriate efficiency of the model in simulating runoff of Minab basin. The results of the studies show that the average future runoff of the basin has a decreasing trend, which will have a decrease of 39.1, 40.3 and 40.4%, respectively, compared to its observation period. Therefore, under all RCP scenarios, the average discharge of the basin will decrease in the future, and the probability of frequent droughts occurring with a longer duration than the observation period is expected.

Watersheds are physical boundaries that include natural ecosystems and all human interactions. Land-use change in watersheds has been one of the major challenges in the 21st century. According to the findings of some researchers, the effects of land use on water resources are more severe than climate change. The estimation of streamflow in watersheds with different land uses is one of the important issues in hydrological studies. In recent years, one of the most widely used methods to facilitate computation has been the use of computer models that represent the watershed response with high accuracy. Restrictions on access to sufficient hydrological data make the role of watershed simulation models more important. This study aimed at modeling monthly runoff using the SWAT model and assessing the effects of different land-use change scenarios on runoff components.

The Ahl-e-Iman watershed with 7770.86 ha area is located in Ardabil province, which was selected to predict the effects of land-use change on hydrologic response. The SWAT model has been developed to simulate different parameters of the daily, monthly, and annual hydrologic responses. The curve number method in the SWAT model was used to estimate monthly surface runoff and output runoff yield. The main inputs of the SWAT model, including daily precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, were obtained from available data centers to prepare a digital elevation map (DEM), land use map, and soil map. The SWAT CUP program was used to calibrate the model. The input of this program is observational flow data and the output file is the SWAT model. The statistical indices of   Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS), correlation coefficient (R2), and mean square error (MSE) were used to evaluate the simulation results of the model.

Sensitivity analysis and the model calibration were performed in 2003-2010. The validation of the SWAT model showed that this model had a high performance for predicting the hydrologic effects of management scenarios in the Ahl Iman watershed.  The results showed that the model had high performance in both periods. The obtained land-use map was given to the model to simulate the effect of land use change. The results of runoff simulation with both land uses of the study scenarios compared with the base flow are given in Figure 1.   Figure (1): Comparing base flow with streamflow in the first and second land-use change scenarios.

The performance of the SWAT model was evaluated in both the calibration and validation periods; therefore, this model was used to investigate different land use management scenarios. The results of the first management scenario showed that the average streamflow discharge was equal to 0.3 cms, which showed 17% decrease in discharge compared to the base land use discharge (0.6 m3). The streamflow discharge increased 36% compared to the base flow in the second scenario. Therefore, this scenario will reduce the water resources of the region in a long time.

Proper management of catchments is one of the most important ways to make optimal use of water and soil resources. In our country, most of the catchments, especially the mountainous catchments, do not have enough hydrometric and sedimentation stations. This fact makes any development and management plans difficult. Hydrologists and water resources researchers have come up with various solutions but none of them have been completely successful (Roustamiyan et al., 1999; 588 & Shaygan et al., 2011; 2). On the other hand, the limited methods of measurement in hydrology and the need to have a method to generalize the available statistics to areas without statistics or places where measurement is not possible. Also, simulating future hydrological changes is one of the main reasons for hydrological simulation (Beven & Binley, 2001; 46). The ability of the SWAT model to simulate the complex hydrological processes of watersheds in the GIS environment distinguishes this model from integrated models in which larger user units are the basis of operation. 

The study area is part of the Qizil Üzan River. Shahar Chai basin along with other rivers such as Zanjan Chai, Aydughmush, and Qaranquchay is one of the sub-branches of Qizil Üzan that flows northwest and north of the basin and joins near the Myaneh city. The data used in this study include a digital elevation model of 1: 10000 of mapping organization, land use, soil, precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, relative daily humidity of synoptic stations, Sarab, Heris, Bostan Abad, Charoymaq and Runoff and the sediment of Shahar Chai station. In the watershed of Shahar Chai, a soil map prepared by natural resources of East Azerbaijan province has been used. Based on these maps, 21 soil texture classes can be distinguished in the whole basin. Also, based on the land use map, six land use classes in the area were identified.

After parameterization and data entry, the simulation was performed for 20 years from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, based on a monthly time step. To determine the degree of sensitivity of flow parameters in the SWAT model, sensitivity analysis was performed using the SUFI-2 method for 25 selected runoff parameters and 15 selected sedimentation parameters. Using validation results to remove parameters that are less sensitive from the calibration process, it is decided that finally the parameters with lower sensitivity were removed and 13 parameters for runoff and 7 parameters for sediment were selected that were more sensitive. The calibration model for runoff and sediment was done in one step with 1500 simulations in three replications. The calibration process ends when, based on the objective function, the coefficients required for evaluation are acceptable. According to the obtained results, all the evaluation criteria of the model in the simulation of runoff and sediment are allowed.

Examination of the results of the SUFI-2 method in the Shahar Chai basin showed that, based on the evaluation criteria of the coefficients of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe, both in the calibration and validation stages, it has good results in this basin. But they can't predict peak discharge and sediments well. To better determine the performance of the model, first of all, it is recommended that the statistics of stations and numerous and daily runoff and sedimentation measurements should be used instead of monthly, if any, in a basin, to compare their results. Secondly, to achieve the desired results, this model should be used in comparison with other simulation models in this basin and adjacent basins.

Understanding the main components of the watershed water basin and analyzing their hydrologic behavior are among the key components of any planning and management procedures in the field of water resources engineering. Today, the need to use modern technologies in hydrological modeling of watersheds has been discussed more than before. The purpose of this study is the simulation of hydrological components in various land use categories in the catchment area of the Dez river basin. Since the tool used in the research is the SWAT model and the SUFI-2 algorithm, the database used include a range of input data. In order to determine the level of sensitivity of the model to the input parameters, global sensitivity analysis was performed. Then, by adjusting the selected parameters and using the observation current, the model was calibrated and validated for the periods 2007 - 1994 and 2013 - 2008, respectively. The coefficients of NS, R2, P-factor and R-factor confirmed the modelchr('39')s ability to simulate river flow in the studied basin. The results of the model showed that the areas with forest use share the highest contribution to aquifer nutrition, and the barren lands have the highest surface runoff. Surface runoff has the leading role in creating the main stream of the river and after that the main flow has been effective in this area. The forest use change to Agricultural lands and pasture will change the hydrological parameters of the basin, and the result of these changes will lead to the increase in the surface runoff, the reduction of nutrition of groundwater resources and the reduction of river basin water. The SWAT model can be used as a precursor model in watershed management studies.

The purpose of this study was to develop strategic strategies for Shahrekord's survivability based on the role of urban management. The present research is based on the purpose (type of use), an applied research. The method used in this research is a descriptive-analytical method. The statistical population of this research is Shahrekord residents, and the statistical area of the whole area is Shahrekord. The number of statistical societies (160,000) is considered. The sample size was 383 people, based on the Cochran formula and randomly available. Data collected based on the SWOTmodel were analyzed. The results indicate that defensive strategies, conservative type strategy, competitive type strategy, and ultimately aggressive strategy are respectively in the first to fourth priority respectively. Based on this, the most important strategies for the development of Shahrekord's shelf life, based on the performance of urban management, include strengthening and protecting the right to social participation, using successful experiences and popular beliefs, in order to improve the laws and regulations in Shahrekord, to organize participatory projects in Different levels of local,national, and international transport, development and strengthening of cultural, social and economic interactions between people in different places through television programs.

Floods are a natural phenomenon that causes heavy losses of life and property and ‎human societies every year and people have accepted it as an inevitable event. In this research, to predict the flooding in Sardabrood basin ‎ SWAT hydrological model was used. Information needed for this research, ‎including topographic maps, land use, soil data, and meteorological data, data about daily ‎rainfall, temperature, and flow rate were prepared beforehand. SUFI2 program was used for model ‎calibration. After the calibration and optimization of the model, validation of the model in the ‎study area was done. The calibration of the model wad performed for the years 2003 to 2009 and validation was performed for ‎the years 2010 to 2013. To analyze the results of statistical indicators R2, bR2, and Nash Sutcliffe ‎coefficient were used. After model calibration the respective coefficients were, 0.77, 0.63, and 0.77  and ‎the respective validation coefficients were  0.79, 0.76, and 0.71. The sensitivity results of 31 parameters that are influential on runoff water showed that fixed parameters of groundwater base flow, its time, and the minimum amount of water necessary for groundwater base flow are more sensitive than other parameters. Number Sardabrood parameter curves were used for flood basin. Sardabrood basin was divided into 24 areas to study the flooding pattern. Finally using the above mentioned models it was concluded that sub basin No. (6)  had the first-rank with runoff 123.05, ‎‎sub basin No. (10) had the second rank with runoff in terms of flooding and sub basin No. 1 with a 12.33 has the least amount of runoff.‎

The assessment report fifth of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows that global warming has led to a change in the water cycle due to increased greenhouse gas emissions. In the present time, with the increase of industrial activities and the neglected environmental issues, the effects of climate change have become more evident and poses this phenomenon as a global difficult. Increasing the probability of occurrence of extreme climatic events such as flood and increasing the frequency and intensity of the effects of climate change. Due to changes in climate and global warming, the probability of heavy rainfall and consequently the risk of flood due to incorrect drainage system and physical and environmental factors have increased. Therefore, the study of the region's climate is important given the new scenarios and flood frequency analysis with suitable statistical distributions for future planning.

In the present study, the effects of climate changes on the runoff of Azarshahrchay Basin with CanESM2 model under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 release scenarios assessment report fifth (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with Statistical down scaling model (SDSM), for the period 1976-2005 and 2059-2030 by the hydrologic model SWAT have been investigated. The accuracy of the simulation was evaluated with three indicators: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Coefficient of Determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). An analysis of the frequency of maximum annual flood for both base and future periods using their probability distribution function (PDF) and the Easyfit model. In this model, 5 types of probability distribution including Normal, Normal Log, Pearson, Log Pearson Type 3 and Weibull were used. The best distribution for each basic and future time series were ranked and selected by using three Chi-square, Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Anderson–Darling tests. In order to study how the maximum flood discharge regime changes in the base and future periods were used two indices: 1) The probability and the return period in the equal flows
 2) Intensity of flow in the equal return periods

The obtained factors of the three RMSE, R2, and NSE indicators showed the good performance of the SDSM model in the down scaling the large-scale data. Investigating the performance of the SDSM model in the downscale of the Azarshahr station's climate data with a Coefficient of Determination and Nash–Sutcliffe of 0.99 and 0.98 for temperature for the period 1990-2001 and 0.86 and 0.83 for precipitation in the period 1976-2005. The simulation results showed a rise in temperature during the period 2030-2059 under scenarios and the highest increase was related to RCP8.5 (0.23°c). Also, rainfall at a station increased by 7.44 percent to RCP2.6 and at another station decrease by 7.57 percent to RCP8.5. The performance analysis of the SWAT model indicates a good accuracy of the model in runoff simulation with R2 and Nash 0.6 on average. The results of the 2.1% increase in runoff and the maximum flood peak and the probability of flood events in March and April (late winter and early spring) have been shown by the SWAT model. Results of the study of the regime of maximum annual flows (frequency and intensity) by fitting probabilistic distributions with the lowest error rate for the base distribution period of the Weibull, future period RCP2.6 distribution Log Pearson Type 3, RCP4.5 Log Normal and RCP8.5 Log Normal as best distribution are selected. Also, the frequency and intensity of flood have increased. In the return periods of constant, the maximum discharge increased, and in maximum discharge constant, with increasing return period (1000 years), the discharge rate significantly increased. So, in the 500-year return period is expected a 98% increase in maximum discharge RCP8.5 future period than base period. The most critical scenario is RCP8.5 scenario.
4- Discussion and

The results indicate the impact of climate change on the basin in the future period. Therefore, knowing the increase in precipitation intensity, the flood risk increases. The occurrence of terrible floods due to climate change have caused many damages in different parts of the world in recent decades. The results of this study, like other previous studies, confirm that climate change is significant, especially with the increasing frequency of floods, governments, organizations, and educational centers need to take appropriate measures to eliminate or reduce the effects of climate change and adaptation to extreme events such as floods.

Conservation of soil and water resources is one of the most important principles of proper management of catchments. Therefore, erosion and changes in land use concerns make the importance of predicting the effects of these actions on soil water resources even more important. Therefore, it is necessary to model and evaluate their results. In order to better manage the water balance of the catchment areas, it is essential that the modeling of hydrological phenomena in the catchment area can be an optimal solution for them because of the time it consumes and the costly measurement of water balance components (Zarehkarizi & Talbi, 2016). Therefore, accurate knowledge of the hydrologic behavior of catchment areas can help to better simulate this environment in order to control the main components of the water table (Mojenazadeh, Gahraman, & Davari, 2016). On the other hand, the limitation of measurement methods in hydrology and the need for a method for generalizing the statistics to untapped basins or places that cannot be measured, as well as the simulation of future hydrological changes are among the main reasons for hydrological simulation (Beven, 2001). Many models have been proposed for describing and forecasting the hydrology of the rivers that are very different from the point of view of the time scale and spatial scale (Setegn, Dargahi, Srinivasan, & Melesse, 2010). One of these models is the recent SWAT hydrological model. This model is a semi-distributive model designed to simulate the hydrology of the catchment area on a daily scale. In order to investigate the effect of different management strategies on flow, sediment, nutrients and chemical shale in different watersheds, Land is developed (Arnold et al., 1998).

The Lanbarn watershed is located on the eastern side of the Aharchay River. The area of this sub-basin is 20118 hectares and is the main axis of the Aharchi River. This basin is located in Sina subdivision from the central part of Varzaqan City of Eastern Azarbaijan Province. The SWAT model was used to study runoff in this basin. The SWAT is an example of basic physics models that solves the fundamental physics equations to simulate the processes of the catchment system. This model is semi-distributed and temporally connected in terms of spatial scale. The SWAT model simulation can be divided into two main parts: terrestrial and aqueous phase. Terrestrial phase is related to land surface processes and water, sediment and chemical elements to the main waterways of each sub basin. The aqueous phase simulates the processes of waterways and canals involving the movement of water, sediment, and chemicals.  The smallest unit in this model is the HRU Hydraulic Response Unit, which is derived from the combination of slope, soil and land use maps. Soil water, surface runoff, sediment and chemicals are first calculated for each HRU and then for each sub-basin and finally for the entire catchment. The data used in this study include topographic map, land use, soil, precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, wind speed, solar radiation and daily relative humidity of synoptic stations of Ahar, evapotranspiration of Varzgan and Rain gauges of Eilagh and Dubai Cassine Station. The study area was divided into 17 sub-basins and 469 hydrological units. From 2000 to 2003, the model was warmed up 10 years for calibration and 4 years for validation.

In order to determine the degree of sensitivity of the flow parameters in the SWAT model, two methods of SUFI-2 and GLUE sensitivity tests for the 22 selected parameters were performed. Of the 15 critical parameters of the SWAT model, the density of the soil mass, the soil hydraulic conductivity in the saturation state, the coefficient of evaporation of groundwater, the constant flow rate from the canal, the snowfall temperature, and the snow melting temperature are more sensitive. In terms of 15 sensitive parameters, the swat model is more sensitive to soil mass density factors, saturated hydraulic conductivity, ground water evaporation coefficient, canal discharge constant, snowfall temperature, snow melting temperature. All model assessment criteria in runoff simulation are allowed. But the comparison of the two methods shows that the SUFI-2 method has a better performance than GLUE in this basin. The comparison of graphs, real discharge and the monthly simulated values shows that SWAT model underestimates runoff underestimates. Most streams that the model could not simulate were in late winter and spring. One of the weaknesses of the model in estimating the maximum runoff is the use of the SCS model in the calculation of runoff, which does not simulate the runoff from snowmelt appropriately.   

The results of the application of two methods of SUFI-2 and GLUE in the Lanbran watershed were investigated. Based on the evaluation criteria of the SUFI-2 method, both calibration and validation stages have good results as compared with the GLUE method in this basin. Also, both methods could not predict peaks because they predicted both methods in Dubai sky-highs to be less real than actual Dubai. Although it is easier to use the GLUE method than the SUFI-2 method, the number of simulations is higher for the solution in the GLUE method, Therefore, according to the results, it can be concluded that the SUFI-2 method with low simulation numbers is better than GLUE in this basin.

Creative cities are considered centers of innovation, creativity and transformation of ideas into wealth. Since the idea of innovation is one of the main elements of competition in the age of globalization, the freedom of any modern society is to have a creative city. Creative cities are an attractive place to work and live the lives of citizens, especially the younger generation, and can also be a place to attract and empower different sectors of the economy. Creativity in cities makes it possible to get rid of administrative and physical impediments. Moving towards the creation and realization of a creative city, due to the location of the city as the location of the formation of knowledge-based platforms, the importance and focus of cities in economic development is essential and important. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to provide a strategy for realizing the indicators of a creative city in Shahr-e Rice and selecting the desired strategy. The statistical population of the study was all the citizens of Ray city, which in 1995 was 349700, and experts. In the group of citizens using the Cochran formula, asample size of 322 was randomly selected and in the group of experts, 30 experts were selected.To analyze the data, the SWOT model and QSPM have been used to prioritize strategies. According to the results of the swot model, the position of the city's creative indicators in Ray has been in aggressive position with all the factors involved. The results of qsmp show that among the four important strategies, the second strategy is to create interactive urban spaces in old and original neighborhoods with the participation of citizens and municipalities with the highest score as the best strategy

Soil erosion is one of the most serious environmental degradation problems that adversely affects many natural and human-managed ecosystems. In agricultural watersheds, soil erosion not only removes nutrient-rich top soil on site, but also degrades water quality as a result of transported sediments off site. The estimation of soil erosion is often complicated due to the complex interplay of many factors such as climate, land cover, soil, topography, lithology, and human activities. Erosion models can be used as predictive tools for soil loss assessment, conservation planning, soil erosion inventories, and project planning. Moreover, models can be used as tools for understanding erosion processes and their impact. They are basically categorized into three types of empirical, conceptual, and physical based models. Empirical models are usually statistical in nature and generally applicable only to conditions for which the parameters have been calibrated. The commonly used empirical soil erosion models are USLE, RUSLE, and MUSLE. Soil erosion based- physical models include AGNPS, WEPP, SWAT, and the like. One of the most widely applied watershed models is SWAT which has been extensively used for simulating hydrologic and water quality processes in watersheds with a wide range of scales and environmental conditions. Iran is among the most affected countries in the world in terms of the extent and intensity of soil erosion. Current estimates suggest that soil erosion in Iran is around 25 tons per hectare annually which is four times greater than the world average. In the Northwest of the country, the Sattarkhan Dam has been constructed on the Aharchay River, which is the source of drinking water, agriculture, and industry in the region. In the catchment area of the Sattarkhan Dam, which includes the Aharchay upstream, physical conditions such as being mountainous and the unstability of land management such as the spread of rainforests with plowing in the direction of gradient and developmental activities cause soil erosion, sediment production, damping reservoir capacity reduction and increasing reservoir sedimentation costs. The goal of this study was to model and evaluate the spatial distribution of soil erosion in the Sattarkhan Dam basin. In this study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MUSLE models were served for simulating sediment yield and identifying critical areas of soil erosion in the Sattarkhan Dam basin, located in the North West of Iran. The SWAT model is a continuous-time, semi-distributed, process-based river basin or watershed scale model. It was developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water, sediment and chemical yields in agricultural watersheds with varying soils, land use, and management conditions over a long period of time. It divides a watershed into sub watersheds. Each sub watershed is connected through a stream channel. In addition, each sub watershed is divided into Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU). HRU is a unique combination of soil, land use, and slope type in a sub watershed. SWAT predicts the sediment yield within each HRU using Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation (MUSEL). Sequential Uncertainty Fitting-2 (SUFI-2), a SWAT-CUP2012 sub-module computer program, was applied to optimize the parameters of the SWAT using monthly observed sediment yield data at a monitoring site in the Sattarkhan Dam basin. In this study, sediment discharges data series during 2004-2009 and 2010-2013 were respectively used for model calibration and validation. To evaluate model performance, the statistical methods consisted of the determination coefficient (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS), and root mean square error observations standard deviation ratio (RSR). Seven highly sensitive parameters were recognized for sediment yield simulation including CN2, ESCO, CH_K2, SMFMN, CH_N2, PRF, and USLE_K.  The calibration outputs for simulation showed a very good model performance for sediment yield where the values of R2, NS and RSR were respectively 0.76, 0.95, and 0.06. During the validation period, the annual sediment yield simulation of R2, NS, and RSR values were respectively 0.96, 0.93, and 0.1. Also, the results showed that the spatial pattern of the regions differed in terms of the erosion and sediment production. The critical areas were located in the upper part of the basin and sediment production was very high and high, which included about 34.15% of the area of the Sattarkhan Dam basin.  This study showed that the SWAT model is competent of predicting sediment yields and, hence, can be used as a tool for water resource planning and management in the study watershed. The prediction of sediment yield at ungauged watershed with SWAT could be possible under comparable topography, land use, soil management, climate condition for the purpose of soil erosion assessment, scenario analysis, and recommendation of best management practices to support watershed management initiatives in the semi-dry mountainous regions of Iran.

  Our Earth’s surface is warming rapidly and we can see social, economic and environmental impacts in the world. Failing to take sufficient action today entails potentially huge risks to our environment, economy, society and way of life into the future. This is the critical decade for action. Climate change and global warming will have direct and indirect impacts on water resources by accelerating the hydrological cycle and runoff. Hydrological simulation is an important approach to studying climate change impacts. With decreasing snowfall under climate change conditions, modeling of land use change in mountainous regions is an inherently difficult task Prediction of future changes in land use and climate change and its probability impacts on hydrological processes of watershed can be helpful for challenges of water resource manager and planners in the coming period that it is an important step in the correct planning and integrated management of watersheds. In this study, it has been coupled climate change scenarios, and land use change models with runoff models.
Data and In the present research,Future land use scenarios were modeled by initially calculating the rate of current land use changes between three times snapshots (1986, 2000 and 2014) on Garin dam watershed using Land Sat satellite images, and based on transition probabilities markov-chain and CA markov-chain were used to generate future land use changes for 2042. Markov chain models are essentially projection models that describe the probabilistic movements an individual in a system comprised of discrete states. When applied to land use and many other applications, Markov chains often specify both time and a finite set of states as discrete values. Transitions between the states of the system are recorded in the form of a transition matrix that records the probability of moving
from one state to another. The definition of a system as a finite Markov Chain requires a certain set of properties to hold (Stokey and Zeckhauser, 1978).
SDSM Model used for down scaling of rain and temperature data and Hadcm3 output used for prediction of Garin future climate. Also, in order to study land use change and climate change impacts on runoff SWAT model was used. The simulation coefficients for calibration and validation (table1 and 2) was reasonable and well thus, performance of the model is acceptable. The results show that the forest area will be increased and rangeland will be decreased until 2042 (table3). The Result of Markov -chain and CA Markov-Chain analysis indicate that landuse change will decrease run off rate under A2 and B2 scenarios in 2042. The results reveal that climate change impacts on reducing of runoff is more than land use change during 2042 to 2050 compared 2000 to 2010. Table1. the coefficients for Calibration for discharge simulation
br2 MSE P_factor R-factor R2 NS
0.36 0.39 0.47 0.03 0.60 0.59
Table2. the coefficients for Validation for discharge simulation
bR2 MSE P_factor R-factor R2 NS
0.51 0.16 0.39 0.04 0.67 0.66
Table3. Comparison of the landuses area in 2014(at the present time) and 2042(in the future) Year Natural
Forest Cultivated
Forest Rangeland Rockland
2014 2.35 0.82 14.63 3.24
2042 2.59 1.05 14.19 3.20   The NC,〖 br〗^2, R^2, MSE, P-factor and R-factor coefficients show that validation was better than calibration and both them reveals that performance of the model is reasonable and well. The results show that if trend be stable duration 1986 to 2014, the forest area will be increased by 2.28 percent and rangeland will be decreased by 2.07 percent until 2042 and also, mean precipitation will be reduced but mean temperature will has increased. The results indicate that rangland and rockland area decraesing and forest area increasing area cause to reduce runoff under A2 and B2 scenarios in the future time. Finally, the results show that influence of climate change on runoff reducing is more than effect of land use change from 2014 to 2042. The results can be used to improve management of Garin watershed and to focus on landuses damages and changes. The watershed studied has witnessed landuse change less than climate change effects on runoff rate. Without strong and rapid action there is a significant risk that climate change will undermine our society’s prosperity, health, stability and way of life. To minimize this risk, we must decarbonizes our economy and move to clean energy sources by 2050. That means carbon emissions must peak within the next few years and then strongly decline.

  Rainfall is the most important meteorological factor driving the hydrology of river basins. For the development and management of water resources, it is required to have a reliable coverage of rain gauges, rainfall satellite data and weather radars. Well-maintained ground-based rainfall stations give the best rainfall estimation with high accuracy over time for a small area. The spatial sampling error becomes higher in estimating rainfall when using interpolation techniques. This issue becomes particularly critical in data scarce regions with unevenly distributed rain gauge stations. This is recognized as one of the principal sources of uncertainty in hydrological modeling. Currently, with more and more global precipitation datasets developed, a decline is seen in the application of reanalysis products in hydrological modelling. As a hot research field, many studies focus on the application of directly measured precipitation data on flood risk evaluation at basin scales and discuss their potential for hydrological prediction of ungauged/poorly gauged basins. In this study, we used PERSIANN-CDR gridded database precipitation for modeling runoff in SWAT model in Maharlu Lake basin. The PERSIANN-CDR was used as a gridded database of precipitation for modeling runoff in SWAT model in Maharlu Lake basin. The PERSIANN-CDR is initially compared with rain gauged data and after that it was used as input to SWAT model. SWAT model was calibrated by rain gauge data during 1983 to 2013. The Warmup period set to 3 years. Three discharge stations were used for calibration. Correlation coefficient of, Nash-Sutcliff, POD, CSI, FAR, RMSE, ME and BIAS had been assessed to determine the accuracy of PERSIANN-CDR. SWAT model uncertainty and sensitivity were calculated in SWAT-CUP by SUFI2 method. Comparing the PERSIANN-CDR in monthly scales, we found that this satellite wheatear database less estimates the variables in all months. The results showed average of correlation coefficient is 0.6 and RMSE showed a high error in rainy seasons. In SWAT model, calibration period was set to 1983 to 2010 with validation from 2011 to 2013. Calibration with gauged data showed satisfactory Nash-Sutcliff and R2 statistical indices about 0.6 for the area. The best result was occurred in Chenar-Sokhte-khosh discharge station, R2 was about 72% in calibration and 81% in validation. Calibration with PERSIANN-CDR database showed that this database is not good enough to be used in this semi-distributed model. In Chenar-Sokhte-khosh discharge station, R2 is calculated about 0.59 and Nash-Sutcliff about 0.21. R-factor and P-factor was presented about 0.5 in all discharge stations. These factors show that uncertainty calculation was occurred in good form. The simulation of annual runoff showed that the average runoff simulated using observation database was 1.68 m3/s, the mean runoff simulated by PERSIANN-CDR is 0.84 m3/s, and mean runoff of discharge stations were 1.77 cubic meters per second. On monthly scale, PERSIANN-CDR estimated less runoff like rainfall over all months. Both databases simulate runoff values relative to those recorded in the autumn months less than actual values. The results of this study, which were conducted using the PERSIANN-CDR satellite product, unlike the other studies with global exploratory bases, displayed that in the simulation with the SWAT model, this base cannot be accurately high in simulation. The error of estimating precipitation has been entered directly into the model and caused an error. In this study, with the accuracy of precipitation data, PERSIANN-CDR satellite data on rainfall estimation revealed that this database estimated precipitation values less than real values in all months of the year. Runoff simulation using this satellite product expresses the explanatory factor and the efficiency of Nash-Sutcliff about 0.59 and 0.21.
Despites the time series of precipitation values, this satellite database has a high correlation with the actual values observed on rain-fed stations, but as the findings show the estimated rainfall values are always lower than actual recorded values. Based on the findings from this study, the PERSIANN-CDR satellite is not very accurate on the area of the Maharlou Lake Basin, located in eastern Zagros. In the semi-distributed SWAT model, it cannot simulate runoff. Therefore, it is suggested that before applying estimated rainfall data, this satellite database will have its error and bias values compared with the observed data on rain gauge stations and, then, the estimated precipitation values are corrected based on the bias