جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « convergence » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

Due to its strategic importance and rich resources, the Caucasus region has always been considered as a unique geopolitical unit in the world. In general, the sensitivity of the region as the focus of international attention has always been the focus of foreign powers throughout history, so that this greedy attention, along with problems in the structure of various ethnicities, has caused a kind of tension in the region. And there is instability. This study has tried to address the issue of divergence in the perspective of relations between these countries with a comprehensive and complete approach. The question that arises in this study is that based on what approaches and models can the relations between the countries of the South Caucasus region be analyzed and evaluated? In other words, which of them can be a good theoretical basis for analyzing regional relations? In answer to the above questions, it can be said that each of the theories can analyze the situation in the South Caucasus region, but using the integrated model of regional subsystem theory, convergence. Regional regions and better regional order can analyze the present complex relations and equations. Therefore, the main issue of the present study is the analysis of relations between the countries of the South Caucasus region based on an integrated model, according to which, it seems, the future perspective of the situation in this region leads to a kind of divergence. The research method of this research is analytical-descriptive studies and based on collecting library information, reviewing documents and analyzing them and is of qualitative type.

In this study, in order to examine the convergence of the performance of banks in the provinces in the period of 2018-2019, the index of the ratio of facilities to deposits has been used. This ratio shows the level of activity of the banks in the matter of intermediation of funds and expresses the way of management and how to allocate the resources collected from the deposits in the granting of facilities. that the provinces of Tehran, Fars, Gilan, Kerman, West Azarbaijan, Kermanshah, Yazd, Golestan, Hamadan, Markazi, Lorestan, Qazvin, Hormozgan, Bushehr, Qom, Chahar Mahal, Bakhtiari and North Khorasan have an average negative slope; But among these provinces, the t statistic is significant for Golestan and Qom provinces. Also, the average performance of banks in 14 provinces diverges over time from the average ratio of facilities to deposits of the provinces, and among these provinces, the t-statistics for the provinces of Khorasan Razavi, Mazandaran, Khuzestan, East Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Sistan and Baluchistan, Ilam and South Khorasan is significant.Also, in 23 provinces, the ratio of facilities to deposits is more than 0.85 (based on international and domestic criteria and standards), hence we are witnessing monetary indiscipline, which shows the weakness of the financial system and the dominance of the government's financial policy

This study evaluates the effect of the approval of Maku Free Trade-Industrial Zone on the development of counties located in this region. For this purpose, the development index of the counties has been calculated based on 22 variables and the TOPSIS method for 2011 and 2016. The results indicated that the development convergence hypothesis between the counties is not confirmed. Also, the approval of Maku Free Trade-Industrial Zone has increased the difference (positive difference) in the level of development of Maku county from the average development of the counties of West Azerbaijan province. For Showt county, despite the improvement in the development rank, the difference (negative difference) has increased from the average development of the counties of West Azerbaijan province. For Poldasht county, while the rank deteriorates, difference (negative difference) from the average development of the counties of West Azerbaijan province has also increased. In summary of the results, it can be argued that the approval of Maku Free Trade-Industrial Zone has not made a significant change in this zone in terms of development.

Today, planners and decision makers of countries need timely and accurate evaluation of their decisions and policies. The issue of time and precision is so important that it provides the possibility of implementing possible changes and modifications of patterns and plans, and prevents wasting resources and opportunities. Fortunately, various indicators have provided such a possibility to evaluate these policies and decisions. Misery index is one of the most important measures of social welfare. This index is obtained from the linear combination of inflation and unemployment. This index was introduced by Aokan (1999) and expanded by Barro (1996). An increase in the misery index is associated with many social and economic costs, such as an increase in crime, poverty, divorce, a decrease in social security, damage to mental health, the collapse of families, a decrease in health expenses, and a decrease in life expectancy. Inflation causes the imposition of welfare costs by reducing the value of people’s financial assets, and on the other hand, it harms production by creating uncertainty in the decisions of institutions for investment and creating other costs. Inflation leads to sub - optimal allocation of resources, economic inefficiency and social, cultural and political disorder of the society. Unemployment like inflation is the cause of chaos in the economic conditions of the society. Unemployment has caused people to suffer from social problems such as crimes, addiction and moral corruption. Unemployment causes people to be caught in social problems such as crime, addiction and moral corruption.

Knowledge and awareness of the state of misery index in the regions of the country in certain time horizons are very important for the planners of the region and economic policy makers of the country. Considering the importance of the misery index, this question is raised: Which factors affect the convergence of the misery index in the provinces? In this regard, several studies have been conducted in the field of misery index. However, none of the studies have investigated the influence of the factors affecting the convergence of the misery index in the provinces using spatial econometrics. In economic literature, there are several methods for investigating the convergence. Absolute beta convergence and conditional beta convergence have been used in this study. Absolute beta convergence is formed independently of initial conditions and other characteristics of an economy. For this purpose, using theoretical foundations and empirical studies, the variables of economic growth, monetary indiscipline, human capital, and information and communications technology (ICT) were added to the convergence model as explanatory variables. Absolute beta convergence and conditional beta convergence models have been estimated using the spatial econometric method over the period 2006-2020.In this study, after defining the spatial weight matrix, the unit root test is used to examine the "stationary" of the variables. Moran test and Lagrange multiplier test are used to detect spatial autocorrelation and examine the presence of spatial effects, respectively. Chow's test is used to determine whether the data is a panel, and Hausman's spatial test is used to use the fixed or random effect method. Finally, the model is estimated, and effects of space spillovers are analyzed with "spatial econometrics method" by accounting for direct and indirect effects in Stata software. The calculations of the overflow coefficients of each province on other provinces and the drawing of maps were done using R software and Maptools, Spdep and IMPact function packages for the year 2019. The statistical data including inflation and unemployment rates are used to calculate misery index. Gross domestic product, population, number of university graduates (as human capital index) are extracted from statistical yearbook of the provinces and Statistical Center of Iran. The penetration coefficient of the internet (as ICT indicator) is extracted from Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, as well as facilities and deposits after deducting legal trust are gathered from the Central Bank of Iran. The statistical population of this study is the provinces of Iran except for Alborz province. The results of stationary test using Levin, Lin and Chu (2002) method showed that all variables are stationary at level. Also, the null hypothesis of Moran's test regarding the absence of spatial effects in absolute convergence model and conditional convergence model was rejected. Therefore, the presence of spatial effects in absolute and conditional convergence models was confirmed. According to the conducted tests, the spatial auto-regression method (SAC) was used in this study. The results of the spatial Hausman test also showed that the models should be estimated using the fixed effects method.

The results of estimating the models showed that economic growth and human capital have a negative and significant effect, ICT and monetary indiscipline of banks have a positive and significant effect on the convergence of the misery index in the provinces. According to the speed of convergence, in the case of annual absolute convergence of about 10.9 % and in the case of conditional convergence of about 12.6 % , the gap between the " current growth rate of the misery index " of the provinces and the " long - term equilibrium misery index " of the provinces will be resolved. In the case of conditional convergence, the time required to eliminate half of the aforementioned gap is about 5.5 years. It should be noted that in this study, the misery index is a negative variable. The interpretation of the beta coefficient means that there is an opposite relationship between the initial situation and the average growth rate of the misery index: That is, regions with a lower "misery index" move towards the average misery index with a higher speed and higher growth rate than other regions. This means that the economic situation of the provinces is getting worse. Therefore, it is expected that the provinces will converge to their long - term equilibrium misery index and the gap between the current growth rate of the province's misery index and its long - term equilibrium will be resolved.

According to the positive and significant effect of the monetary indiscipline index on the convergence of the misery index in the provinces, it can be said that with the increase of monetary indiscipline in the banks, liquidity has increased at the community level. Consequently, it has caused an increase in the general level of prices and an increase in the misery index. On the other hand, due to the economic situation of Iran, the existence of economic and banking sanctions and the impossibility of financing and investing in foreign sectors, the government's credit facilities and debt to banks have increased, and the monetary indiscipline index of banks is increasing, and as a result, the liquidity risk of banks is increasing. As a result, the lending power of banks will decrease, that is, it is not possible to grant large bank loans to drive the productive and entrepreneurial sectors into spur the economic growth of the provinces, and this will cause a decrease in employment, a decrease in the level of production, and then an increase in unemployment. This is why the misery index increases in the provinces. The spatial coefficient of the interval of the dependent variable is positive and significant. The existence of a positive and significant coefficient of the spatial dependence variable shows the positive effect of the poverty index of neighboring provinces on each other, so the distance between the provinces of the country has an effect on the convergence of the poverty index.

In the present study, by presenting the wavelet method (economic and physical analysis) and coherence analysis, the relationship between the real exchange rate and the real interest rate in the Iranian economy was re-explained based on the theory of purchasing power parity in the form of a monetary dual model in the short-term, medium-term and long-term time horizons. For this purpose, the data in available monthly and used during the period from April 1359 to March 1399. The results of the Granger causality test reject the assumption of causality in all time periods from the real interest rate to the real exchange rate, however, in the short term and in some periods, the causality relationship from the exchange rate Real is towards the real interest rate. Based on the results obtained (based on monthly data), for the real exchange rate index and the real interest rate, many correlation areas have been observed in intervals of less than one year, almost throughout the time period. This shows a strong correlation between the two variables in the short term. Also, the results indicate that the intensity and direction of the relationship between the two variables is not constant in the short term and has changed repeatedly, so that the monetary model cannot be interpreted with sticky prices. By moving from the short term to the long term, the relationship between the real interest rate and the real exchange rate index is in phase, and the real interest rate variable is leading and the real exchange rate is declining; Therefore, in the medium-term and long-term horizon, a direct relationship between these two variables can be seen to an extent that confirms the theory of purchasing power parity (monetary model with flexible prices).

The oil industry has always played an important role in the economies of OPEC member countries, and current and future oil price fluctuations are among the factors increasing or decreasing the stock market index in OPEC member countries. The process of convergence and divergence of the total stock index can cause changes in oil sales. Countries. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to test two research hypotheses that there is a convergence of current and future oil prices with the total stock index of member countries using the model of spatial econometrics. For this purpose, the convergence of Sigma and Beta in the combined data of 12 OPEC countries during the period 1995-1998 was investigated using the Anslin model for the spatial econometric test. The findings showed that there was a convergence between the future oil prices with maturities of 1, 3 and 6 months with the total stock index of OPEC member countries and a slow convergence between the instantaneous price and the total stock index of OPEC member countries compared to the future oil price.

Income inequality is an important obstacle to the growth and expansion of social welfare. Developed societies use various tools to overcome this problem. The social security system is one of the most well-known of these tools. In this study, the effect of social security costs on the convergence of income distribution in the provinces of the country in the period 1397-1387 has been investigated. In this research, the subject has been studied through spatial methodology. The results showed that the long-term costs of social security have a significant negative effect on the convergence of income distribution in the provinces, but short-term costs have no effect. Absolute and conditional convergence coefficient shows that the provinces of the country converge to a level of income distribution in the long run. The estimated convergence velocity is 0.061 in the absolute convergence state and 0.075 in the conditional state. The findings also showed that inflation and human capital have a positive and significant effect and Internet penetration has a negative and significant effect on the convergence of income distribution. Kuznets hypothesis was confirmed in the provinces. The study of the effects of overflows in 1397 showed that the long-term costs of social security in one province affect the neighboring provinces and Isfahan province due to its proximity to 9 provinces has been able to have the greatest effect of overflows on other provinces.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of trade and foreign direct investment on economic growth of OPEC members using the convergence and gravitation model. The model is estimated by the spatial Durbin regression model (SDM) using spatial panel data for the period 2010-2020. Convergence is estimated using cross-sectional data method and gravitation model using panel data method. The results show that foreign direct investment affects economic growth inside and in neighbor countries through spillovers, increasing trade and technology imports in the countries. Also the size of government has no effect on trade and economic growth. The results of convergence and gravitation model show that there is convergence between the target countries and gross domestic product has a positive effect on bilateral trade, but the Linder variable has a negative effect on mutual trade, consistent with the theory.

This study aimed to investigate the effect of social security expenditure on the convergence of social welfare in provinces of Iran. Results of estimating models, using Spatial Econometrics, revealed that social security expenditure has a positive and significant effect on the convergence of social welfare in provinces of Iran during the period 2006-2020. Moreover, findings demonstrated that direct and indirect effect of social security expenditure is also positive, in the sense that the increases in social security expenditure has not only improved the convergence of social welfare in all provinces, but its spillover effects have also improved the convergence of social welfare in neighboring provinces on average. Besides, the Absolute Convergence Rate was 0.053 and in the conditional models, its’ values were estimated to be 0.054 and 0.059, respectively. These findings show that the estimated Conditional Beta-Convergence Rate is higher while considering social security expenditures. Additionally, results revealed that the Misery Index and the Government Size have a negative and significant effect, while the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Human Capital have a positive and significant effect on the convergence of social welfare. Finally, an estimation of the Spatial Spillover Effects of social security expenditures in 2019 showed that each one of the provinces has the highest direct effect coefficient on itself, and then has the highest effect on neighboring provinces.

One of the most important topics in economics is the study of utility and social welfare. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to derive the utility function and social welfare function of the provinces of Iran during 1380-1396. For this purpose, the regional utility function is used to extract the utility of the provinces. To calculate these functions, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Panel data(pmg/ARDL) was used in Eviews 9 and Excel software. Then, the Bergson-Samuelson welfare function, which is computed as a sum of utility, was used to calculate the social welfare function. Finally, beta convergence method was used to investigate welfare convergence between provinces of the country. The results of the extraction of utility and social welfare function show that social welfare has been in steady growth in the period 1380-1386. After a slight decline in 1387, it increases again. In 1392, this growth stops and increases again in 1394 and 1395. This increase continues until 1394 and declines during the years of 1395 and 1396. Also, the results of beta convergence show that the provinces such as Chaharmahal-e-Bakhtiari, Qazvin, Lorestan and Kurdistan have the highest convergence rate, considering the Solow-Swan hypothesis, they are less welfare than other provinces and provinces such as Tehran, Isfahan, Hamedan and Markazi, which have lower convergence rates, have higher levels of welfare. While, the convergence rate for the country is -0.1718. This means that the entire provinces, on average, are moving toward an average welfare of 17.18% annually. Also, since the beta convergence coefficient for provinces and countries is between zero and negative one, the existence of convergence in provinces and countries is confirmed.

The distribution of households’ income and expenditure is one of the economic indicators of differences between provinces. Infact one of the goals of development programs in each country is to eliminate divergences between the provinces and realizing a balanced growth and development across the country. Hence, raising the level of growth in regions with lower than average growth level is necessary for the realization of development goals. The purpose of this study is to examine the convergence of urban household expenditures in the provinces of Iran during the years 1379-1394. Fot this purpose, the conditional convergence model and spatial econometric method of generalized moments have been used. The results of the study indicate that conditional beta convergence exists for the urban households’ expenditure and the rate of convergence of the provinces is 0.07%. In conditional convergence, some other explanatory variables are also considered and according the results the effect of economic growth, inflation and human capital on the convergence of the urban households’ expenditure is negative, while the population has had a positive effect on it.

Most of the researches on Iran and Saudi Arabia issues have developed in a completely different atmosphere based on aggressive realism. Few also of Theme, while confessing to the divergence of the Islamic world had been willing to expand the liberal process of the European Union. critical thinking, which is based on the first class of works; while comprehensive data are present from existing conditions; do not change and soften the situation and are often misunderstood and unanimously affected by the pattern of balance of powers .In the case of the second spectrum of works, in the realist climate of south-west Asia, an appropriate developmental path is not provided for freedom and unity of liberal type. The aim of the present paper is to present a compromise between these two approaches by taking advantage of the regimes of regimes in order to soften the situation into the realistic environment. The Result of this paper is to find out the two countries by changing the rules of the game in order to achieve its (convergence).this will preserve and increaseregionalism of the Persian Gulf, and then the regional cooperation between the two countries is focal point for the development and expansion of the convergence process of the Islamic world.The present article, with a critical look at the existing works, seeks to achieve a favorable situation in the relations between the two countries.

The usual methods of measuring regional inequalities can not reflect the internal changes of the country in terms of displacement in different development groups. Thus, the indicators of inequalities are not effective in demonstrating the dynamics of the distribution of inequalities. For this reason, this paper examines the dynamics of the regional inertial transport in the country during the period of 2006-2016 using the CIRD multidimensional index and stochastic kernel density method. To that end, 25 indicators were selected in five dimensions including macroeconomic conditions (MEI), science and innovation (SII), environmental sustainability (ESI), human capital (HCI) and public facilities (PFI). In turn, a two-stage Principal Component Analysis (PCA) methodology was developed to create a composite index of inequality. Then, in the second stage, using a nonparametric analytical approach to internal distribution dynamics and a stochastic kernel density method, the convergence hypothesis of the CIRD index of the Iranian provinces was tested. Afterwards, based on the ergodic density, the long-run equilibrium was shown. At this stage, to adopt the most accurate regional policies, the distribution dynamics and the process of convergence or divergence of the Iranian provinces for each of the five dimensions in three successive periods (2006 and 2016) were studied separately. According to the results of the first stage in 2006, the highest level of development was related to Tehran province, followed by Semnan, Yazd and Markazi provinces. In turn, Sistan and Baluchestan province had the lowest level of development. In 2016, the highest level of development and the highest positive inequality were in Tehran, Yazd, Semnan and Isfahan provinces and the lowest level of development was in Sistan and Baluchestan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, North Khorasan and Kurdistan provinces. The results showed that the central provinces of the country were at the highest level of development due to the effects of Tehran's knowledge spillover, while the country's lower provinces were at the lowest level of development. The main reason for this may be due to the lack of access to the markets in the border provinces. Based on the results of the second stage, which examines the dynamics of regional inequality transmission in the country during 2006-2016, the first year (i.e., 2006) was not multifaceted and according to the kernel density graph, the CIRD index of about 70% of the provinces was between -1.1 and -0.1. The rest of the sequence on the right was distributed at a level higher than -0.1. In the kernel distribution, a convergence process was observed. One peak was about 1 and the other about 3, but the main peak remains at -0.6 with about 55 percent of the provinces. In the second year (i.e., 2011), according to the kernel density diagram, the curve clearly showed the pattern of the triplet nature and there was a small but a clear increasing trend in the distribution of this year relative to 2006. In this year, the previous uniform distribution is divided into two parts at the highest level, one peak at about 1 and the other at about 3. However, the main peak remains the same at -0.6 with approximately 55% of the remaining provinces. In 2016, the multidimensional pattern remained constant and there was no mobility in the lower level groups. On the contrary, at the higher level, the CIRD index accounted for about 45% of the provinces at about -0.4. This year clearly faces the twin density pattern, indicating that the provincial provinces tend to be closely related to each other in terms of development. This way, the provincial provinces are low in terms of development. The findings tend to be -0.6 and the value of the more developed CIRD index tends to be about 0.4. These three curves show that the provinces tend to converge toward several different CIRDs in terms of development. Moreover, according to the distribution dynamics results, the provinces of Iran followed the single-density pattern in 2006. However, in 2016 they followed the double-peak density pattern in low and moderate inequality index levels as well as in the development index. In conclusion, the country diverged during the years 2006 to 2016.

The economic components of a geographic region, such as its economic growth, are influenced by the spillover effect of other regions’ economic components. In addition to these spatial dependences, there are common factors, such as oil price, that induce a correlation among the economic variables of the geographic regions. Thus, it is necessary to distinguish between the dependence created by these factors and spatial dependence; otherwise the role of spatial effects will be biased upward, and creating other problems such as inconsistency of coefficients and violations of some common assumptions. In Spatial econometric models such as spatial auto regression and spatial error models, the common factors are not considered. In this paper, for the first time, the existence of spatial dependence on economic growth of Iranian provinces during 1394-79 is tested and evaluated, using a combination of spatial auto regression models and spatial error models, and a combination of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and Common correlated effects (CCE). The CCE method is able to consider the role for common correlated effects. The results show that ignoring Common correlated effects contributes to inaccurate results. Significance of proxy variables used for Common correlated effects and lack of significance of variables related to spatial dependence indicate that existing dependence is due to the influence of Common correlated effects and economic growth data of Iran's geographical regions do not show spatial dependency at least at province’s level.

The housing sector is one of the most important economic sectors in terms of household expenditure and GDP and its role in changing macroeconomic index such as economic growth and employment. Given the importance of the housing sector in the economy and there is a lot of volatility in this sector, in this study, the factors affecting the price of housing has been Including stock indices, liquidity, the price of gold and shocks caused by the housing market countries, United Arabic Emirates, Turkey, Greece and Cyprus will be discussed. Also, the convergence of housing prices between Iran and selected countries will be evaluated. To analyze the effect of shocks from Structural Vector Auto Regressive and housing price index for the convergence Iran and selected countries Johansson model is used by quarterly data from 2007 to 2015. Data is extracted from the stock exchange database of Iran, Central Bank of selected countries. The results that show the housing shocks in selected countries don't impact on the price of housing; Liquidity shocks is effective and stock index shocks and gold prices have no effect on Iran's House Price Index. The share of housing prices in selected countries fluctuations of housing prices forecast error in the short-term is up, but in the long run is reduced. Controlling the volume of liquidity and orienting towards production are effective policies in the short term to stabilize housing prices. The findings also confirmed the convergence relationship between Iran and selected countries in the long-term housing price index. This reflects the contagion of the crisis in the housing market of the countries. Therefore, it is necessary to rebuild the housing market against crises.

This paper tests the hypothesis of consumer price indices convergence among Iran provinces over the period from 2003 to 2016 by implementing cluster analysis. The results show that there is no evidence of overall convergence among provinces. However, the results suggest that there are three convergence clubs. The first, and the largest, club consist of 19 provinces. The second and third clubs consist of 3 and 4 provinces. Tehran forms a divergent club. Moreover, club members do not belong to any specific income and population category and there is no evidence of geographic clustering. Overall, the results point to possible market segmentation, persistent difference between living costs across provinces and possible different impact of monetary policy over general price level across provinces. JEL Classification: C32, E31, F15

The stock market is one of the most important infrastructures for economic development in developing and developed countries. The convergence of stock market returns reflects the interdependence of the economies of countries and the mobility of capital among them. This study aims to test the stock market price index convergence between OECD countries Philips and sul (2007) methodology over the period January 2007-Februrary 2017. The results show that the stock markets do not form a convergent cluster. However, there are three convergent clubs with one divergent market, Luxemburg. Also, the result of convergence test among clusters represents that the first and second clusters form a convergent cluster.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate social welfare and the convergence of social welfare of Iran,s provinces. For the purpose we use Nahar and Inder convergence during 2000-2013. The results indicate that Kermanshah, Kohkiloyeh and Boyerahmad and Mazandaran areconvergence towards the average of welfare of the provinces and Also, West Azarbaijan, East Azarbaijan, Ardabil, Bushehr, Razavi Khorasan, North Khorasan, Semnan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Qom, Golestan, Lorestan and Hormozgan diverge from the average of welfare. Also, most of the Iran,s provinces have a lower welfare than the community average. Therefore, policymakers performance in this field are not suitable for balanced development of regions welfare.