جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « economic uncertainty » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

The main purpose of this research is to experimentally investigate the asymmetric effect of global indicators of Geopolitical Risk (GPR) and Economic Uncertainty (EU) on the oil rent in Iran using seasonal data of the period 1993:1-2021:1. For this purpose, the global GPR index provided by Caldara & Iacoviello (2018) which is based on newspaper coverage of geopolitical tensions and the global EU index provided by Ahir et al. (2018) which is based on the frequency of the word uncertainty (and its types) in the country reports of the Economist Intelligence Unit has been used. The variables of the oil production and the global index of real economic activity are also included in the model as control variables. The results of Sam et al.'s (2019) augmented bounds cointegration test confirm the existence of a strong asymmetric long-term equilibrium relationship between model variables. The results of the estimation of the model using Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) show that in the long and short term, the effect of positive GPR shocks on the share of oil rent in GDP is positive and significant, and this effect is negative and significant for negative GPR shocks. Also, the effect of positive GPR shocks on the share of oil rent in GDP is greater than the effect of negative GPR shocks (confirming the asymmetric effect of GPR). Regarding the global index of economic uncertainty, the estimation results show that positive EU shocks have a negative and significant effect in the long and short term, and negative EU shocks have a insignificant effect in the long term and a positive and significant effect in the short term on the share of oil rent in GDP (confirming the asymmetric effect of EU). Based on the other results, the increase in oil production and the global index of real economic activity have a positive and significant effect on the share of oil rent in GDP, according to theoretical expectations.

Economic uncertainty is a situation in which the future economic environment is difficult to predict, and there is a high degree of risk or unknown issues involved. This can be caused by a variety of factors, such as political instability, financial market volatility, or natural disasters. Economic uncertainty can have a significant impact on macroeconomic variables, such as GDP growth, investment, and consumption.Economic uncertainty can have a number of negative consequences for the economy. It can lead to a decrease in investment, consumption, and economic growth. It can also lead to an increase in inflation and financial market volatility. If there is a political crisis, businesses may become more cautious about making investment decisions, as they are not sure what the future holds. This can lead to a decrease in investment, which can dampen economic growth. Similarly, if there is a financial crisis, consumers may become more cautious about spending money, as they are not sure whether they will lose their jobs or their investments will lose value. This can lead to a decrease in consumption, which can also dampen economic growth.

As a basis for analysis, the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model was used in this study. It is a type of economic model that combines elements of both microeconomics and macroeconomics. They are used to simulate the effects of economic shocks on macroeconomic variables. The DSGE model used in this study was based on Iran’s data from 1989 to 2022. The model was then used to simulate the effects of economic uncertainty shocks on a variety of macroeconomic variables, including GDP growth, investment, consumption, the exchange rate, the interest rate, and inflation.Since the central bank in Iran is not independent, it is not possible to model the government and the central bank as two separate parts, but these two should be considered in the same framework. The government tries to balance its expenses in the form of current and construction expenses through the revenues from receiving a lump sum tax from the household, the sale of partnership bonds and the income from the sale of oil. In fact, it is assumed that most of the banks are owned by the government.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of economic uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic variables. The results indicate that the real variables of the economy such as investment, production, consumption, government spending, and taxes decreased in response to the shock of economic uncertainty. However, nominal variables such as the exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation rate increased in response to that shock.The results of the study suggest that economic uncertainty shocks can lead to instability in the economy. This is because economic uncertainty induces a decrease in economic activity, as businesses and consumers become more cautious about making investment and spending decisions. This can lead to a decrease in GDP growth, employment, and income.In addition, economic uncertainty can increase the inflation by making the demand for goods and services exceed the supply.

Conclusions and Policy Implications:

 The findings of this study suggest that economic uncertainty shocks can have a significant impact on macroeconomic variables. Policymakers should be aware of the potential negative consequences of economic uncertainty shocks and take measures to mitigate their impacts. This could include policies that promote economic stability, such as fiscal stimulus and monetary policy. By understanding the causes and consequences of economic uncertainty, policymakers and businesses can take steps to mitigate its negative impacts and promote economic stability.

The purpose of this article was to measure the impact of the impulse caused by the uncertainty of monetary, financial and currency policies on macroeconomic variables in Iran. For this purpose, the statistical information of the period 1991-2022 was used based on the frequency of seasonally adjusted information. The uncertainty index of economic policies in this study was caused by monetary, financial and currency policy. In line with the modeling goal of this study, the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method was used. In this study, the impulse of economic uncertainty in the behavior of the monetary authority and the government was included in the model. The results obtained from the impulse entered from the area of monetary policy uncertainty show that the variables of inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate and production deviation have shown a positive reaction to this impulse, but other variables such as investment, employment, Government expenditures, tax revenues and consumption expenditures of the private sector showed a negative reaction. In the second part, the results obtained from the impulse entered from the area of financial policy uncertainty indicate that the variables of inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, government expenditure and production deviation have shown a positive reaction to this impulse, but other variables including Employment, taxes and consumption showed a negative reaction. Finally, in the third part, the results obtained from the impulse entered from the area of currency policy uncertainty show that the variables of inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate and production deviation have a positive reaction to this impulse. But other variables such as investment, employment, government spending, tax and consumption showed a negative reaction.In this study, the shock of economic uncertainty through monetary, financial and currency policy has been included in the behavior of the monetary authority and the government in the model. The results obtained from this study indicated that the real variables of the economy such as investment, production, consumption, government spending and taxes have decreased in response to the shock of economic uncertainty, but the nominal variables such as the exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate have decreased in response to Economic uncertainty shocks have increased. Based on the obtained results, the shock caused by economic uncertainty by affecting the behavior of economic agents in the households and companies sector has led to instability in optimization and its consequences have been observed on macroeconomic variables. Based on the obtained results, the shock caused by economic uncertainty by affecting the behavior of economic agents in the households and companies sector has led to instability in optimization and its consequences have been observed on macroeconomic variables.

Economic uncertainty is one of the important and influential factors on economic policies and their results, and in such a situation, rational decisions are replaced by other methods. Various studies has shown the effect of economic uncertainty on inflation, investment, economic growth, consumption and demand for money.Uncertainty is difficult to measure due to its invisibility, and as the uncertainty measurement methods improve, the measurement of its effect on various economic variables and markets and the prediction of their behavior in response to the actions of economic agents will be more accurate.The main aim of this article is to measure the economic uncertainty index by using news published in social networks. This method of measurement has become very important with the widespread use of social networks.

 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:

Uncertainty is one of the most controversial concepts in the philosophy and methodology of economics. The history of the concept of economic uncertainty goes back to David Hume. There are three categories of theories about economic uncertainty. The first group believes that the future reality is unchangeable and predetermined and economic decision makers have perfect information. In this view, there is no such thing as uncertainty and the world is in complete certainty. 18th century the economists of were the first group to present this theory. The second group believes that the reality of the future is unchangeable and predetermined and the decision makers are able to know the future. These economists use objective conditional probability functions to solve the future uncertainty problem. The third class considers the future reality to be changeable and unknown. The starting point of these theories started from the study of the Chicago school economist Frank Knight titled "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit". He clearly distinguished between the two concepts of risk and uncertainty. Keynes also reached the same results as Knight. In general, in a situation where the economy has a high level of uncertainty, the theories of the first and second category have a good explanation. But in confronting with exogenous shocks such as the corona virus epidemic, war and financial crisis, the concept of uncertainty will be more appropriate in the theories of the third category. This study will measure this index based on fundamental uncertainty (the third category).

In this article, the economic uncertainty index in Iran was measured from January 2017 to December 2020 by monitoring and analyzing 3,117,960 news from 28 popular and influential Iranian Telegram channels. To analyze these news, we used "supervised machine learning" methods. In the first step, 13,404 news items were labeled by human evaluators according to their impact on uncertainty. The labels had two modes "affecting uncertainty" and "neutral". Then by using four algorithms ("C4.5" from decision tree methods, "Multilayer Perceptron" from artificial neural network methods, "Logistics" from function-oriented methods and "Simple Bayes" from Bayesian methods) labeling of the whole news was done. The economic uncertainty index was calculated numerically and based on the number of news items that affect economic uncertainty, the measurement and value of this index was standardized, and then the quality of the index was evaluated with historical evidence, relabeling and comparison with the index based on Google data.

Among the 4 media-based uncertainty indicators, 3 indicators can better explain the historical events of this period. Among them, the best performance is determined by C4.5 algorithm from the decision tree methods. After this algorithm, multilayer perceptron, logistic has the best performance and the weakest performance belongs to the simple Bayes method. Media-based economic uncertainty index trend with C4.5 method is consistent with the important events of the study period, in such a way that the highest level of uncertainty occurred during the period when Trump announced his withdrawal from the JCPOA until the official withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA. In general, it can be said that the fluctuations of the economic uncertainty index have been limited and have several jumps, which are due to the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA, the oil embargo and the assassination of Sardar Soleimani.In the logistic algorithm, the highest level of uncertainty dates back to the end of 2020. The period that coincides with Trump's presidential election. The level of economic uncertainty increases after Trump's official withdrawal from the JCPOA and reaches its peak with oil sanctions.The output of the multilayer perceptron algorithm indicates that the average level of uncertainty has not changed significantly.  In the simple Bayes algorithm, the highest level was also reached during the period of the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA and the increase in enrichment.  The results of the regression showed that economic uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the average logarithm of the exchange rate with multilayer perceptron, logistic and simple methods. This effect is larger in the multilayer perceptron model, which had better performance based on machine learning indicators.

CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS:

The calculated economic uncertainty index is consistent with the important events of the study period, such as the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, Iran’soil sanctions, and the escalation of the US confrontation with Iran in the assassination of Sardar Soleimani. It is suggested that daily calculation of this index be used to reduce uncertainty in the managing future events. We employed GARCH model to test effect of Media-based Economic Uncertainty index on Iranian exchange rate. The results showed that Economic Uncertainty index has poisitve effect on exchange rate.

The industrial sector and its growth is one of the most important performance indicators of the economy at the macro level and achieving a higher growth rate in this sector is one of the important goals of any economic system. Therefore, it is important to study the factors that affect the development of the industrial sector and improve the predictability of this sector. A review of the literature on the development of industry in the economy shows that one of the most important factors affecting its development is the stability of macroeconomics in both economic and political sectors, so that economists today have accepted that economic and political stability is a necessary condition for growth. It is high and continuous in the industry sector of the economy. In this regard, in the present study, the role of political and economic uncertainties on improving the predictability of industrial sector activities in Iran during the period 1991 to 1399 has been investigated. GMM generalized torque method was used to analyze the data. Findings showed that economic and political uncertainties have had negative and significant effects on the development of the industrial sector in Iran. It was also observed that considering political and economic uncertainties can improve the predictability of industrial sector activities. Accordingly, it is concluded that macroeconomic and policy policies in the country should be implemented a way that does not harm economic stability and thus the development of the industrial in the country.

Uncertainty is a major challenge for economic agents and policymakers, and is one of the effective factors in causing fluctuations in macroeconomics. Economic uncertainty changes the demand for money by affecting people's expectations of the future state of the economy. In this study, the effect of economic uncertainty on money demand in Iran during the period from the first quarter of 2004 to the third quarter of 2018 has been investigated. Hence, the liquidity demand function is estimated using an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model and quarterly data of liquidity volume, national income, bank interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and economic uncertainty index. The results show that economic policy uncertainty has a significant effect on liquidity demand. In examining the asymmetric effects, both increase and decrease of uncertainty show a negative effect on liquidity, indicating asymmetric response. Therefore, the economic policy uncertainty index is effective in predicting fluctuations of money demand in Iran.

The main objective of this study is to survey the effect of economic uncertainty on the effectiveness of outstanding bank’s credits in Iran. For this purpose, required quarterly data are collected for the period 1991 - 2017 from the Iran economy. Then, the economic uncertainty index has been estimated from the fluctuations of exchange rate, inflation rate, gold coin price, and total stock price index with ARCH and GARCH method. In the next step, a compound index extracted with the "Principal Components Analysis" method from these estimated indexes. Finally, with the use of the "SVAR" model, the effect of economic uncertainty on the effectiveness of monetary policies has been examined. The results of impulse response functions show that GDP growth has a negative relationship with the estimated uncertainty index and this means that the amount of GDP will reduce when uncertainty becomes higher. Generally, the results of this study implied that economic uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on the effectiveness of the monetary policy. Hence, one can conclude that, in a situation where economic uncertainty is high in the economy, the effectiveness of monetary policies is diminishing.

This study aims to examine the impact of uncertainty on the demand for money in Iran form 1990Q1 – 2010Q4. First, I focus on the relation between uncertainty and demand for money with the emphasis of Keynes conception. Using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach of cointegration. My empirical results indicate that the effect of the GNP and uncertainty index on real money demand is positive and significant while inflation rate on real demand for money is negative and significant. Furthermore, the results of the model estimation indicate that the effect of uncertainty on M1 is negative and insignificant, but the effect of uncertainty on M2 is positive and significant.

Private sector investment is fundamental in economic development. Here, we are trying to show which factor is more important. This study was written with focus on the theories of investment and investment process in Iran. A lot of work has done in this area in Iran, but they did not pay attention much to the non-economic factor which affects on investment. We have analyzed the theories that define influence of qualitative variables on investment. These variables cause uncertainty for economy, so we studied the impact of them with attention to a specific situation. In the last chapter we used qualitative variables in an econometric model. Our concern was finding the reasons of existence of these types of variables. And then we focused on them. At the end of our paper we have suggested some policy implication.