جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "recession" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

The topic of welfare and its improvement is an important issue in different societies. According to the existing literature, there are multiple factors that affect the welfare status of countries, one of which is production and its fluctuations (boom and recession). Considering the important impacts of production on the economic welfare of the country, the present study aims to explain the impact of production and, more precisely, that of increases (economic boom) and decreases (economic recession) in production on welfare in Iran. Indeed, this analysis deals with production with and without oil. The main question in the present study is whether there is a significant difference between the impacts of economic boom (increases in production with or without oil) and economic recession (decreases in production with or without oil) on welfare in the Iranian economy.

Most of the models in econometrics are based on linear (symmetric) models. In a symmetric estimate of the production effects (with or without oil), if economic welfare increases by 1 unit with an increase in production, then economic welfare will decrease by 1 unit with a decrease in production. However, what actually happens may not be this way, and the effect of increases in production (economic prosperity) on welfare may be different from the effect of decreases in production (recession). Therefore, the focus of a research model is to distinguish the effect of increases in production (with or without oil) from the effect of decreases in it. The model used in this study is based on the one proposed by Shin et al. (2014). That study discusses the issue of the asymmetrical coefficient of an influential factor and its effect on the dependent variable in the conditions of prosperity and recession. Shin’s team introduces a model called Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) regression model. In the present study, among the various welfare indices, the IEWB index has been considered as a measure of economic welfare. Multiple variables are also used to calculate this index. The IEWB index considers economic welfare as a function of the dimensions of effective per capita consumption flow, net social accumulation of wealth and resource-generating sources, economic inequality, and insecurity. In this regard, weights are considered for each of these dimensions in a special way. Therefore, the weights assigned to each dimension will be different based on different observations. The spatial scope of this study includes Iran, and the temporal scope is from 1971 to 2021.

The movement trend is an indicator of economic well-being, showing that the index followed a downward trend after the revolution until the end of the war. After the war, the index had an upward trend with a gentler slope compared to the years before the revolution. It reached its highest level in 2017 and then started to decline again. This decrease is due to the increase in the sanctions on the Iranian economy, which led to a decrease in oil revenues, a decrease in economic growth, and an increase in the inflation rate, resulting in a decline in economic well-being. The results of the estimate are as follows:- In the short term, the effect of oil economic prosperity on well-being is almost more than 2.5 times the effect of economic prosperity without oil.- In the short term, the effect of oil economic recession on well-being is greater than the effect of economic recession without oil.- In the short term, the asymmetry in the impact of economic prosperity and recession (both with and without oil) on well-being is confirmed.- In the long term, considering the direct effect of economic prosperity and recession (with and without oil) on well-being, the asymmetry of production effect (with and without oil) is also confirmed. But, unlike the case in the short term, in the long term, the effect of economic recession without oil on well-being is greater than the effect of oil economic recession.- In the long term, the effect of oil economic recession on well-being is more than twice the effect of oil economic prosperity, and the effect of economic recession without oil on well-being is almost 5 times the effect of economic prosperity without oil.

Conclusions and policy implications: 

Based on the results of this research about the impact of economic prosperity and recession on the well-being in Iran, it is suggested that, first, the government should create the necessary infrastructure to improve the people's well-being so that the prosperity periods can be prolonged. Second, economic policymakers should adopt supportive policies, especially for producers, to improve the country's well-being during recessions. Third, it seems that, if the Iranian economy moves towards non-oil dependence, in times of economic recession, there will be a need for stronger welfare policies by the government to compensate for the lost well-being. If there is more extensive support for non-oil sectors, they may be able to contribute to increased well-being during prosperous times.

This study aims to investigate the relationship between currency crises and fluctuations in banking credits in Iran. Utilizing a time-varying coefficients approach spanning from 1989 to 2022, alongside economic boom and recession indicators, the analysis assesses the impact of currency crisis occurrences on banking credit cycles. The currency crisis index, based on a dummy variable, and the credit cycle index, derived from banking credit booms and busts, are examined alongside the economic cycle, gauged by production fluctuations using intermediate filters. Findings suggest that currency crises influence the occurrence of credit cycles and production facility cycles, while shocks stemming from economic cycles exacerbate currency crises and credit cycles within the banking system. Given the bidirectional relationship observed between the currency crisis index and credit cycles, policymakers are advised to exercise caution in implementing drastic measures during economic fluctuations and credit cycles. Prudent management of currency markets can mitigate the adverse effects of currency crises on economic variables.

The formation of macroeconomic theory in the framework of conventional economics is mainly due to the analysis and determination of economic behavior of individuals who work under the realm of a school of thought and capitalism. Intellectual foundations and structures governing the capitalist economy such as the type of ownership, the type of governance and the source of the formation of behaviors had been the origion of the emergence of special institutions such as the bank and the capital market. Consequently, a new theory of macroeconomics has arrived. In other words, macroeconomic theories are in the position of resolving the crisis and the problem of the West and are rooted in the foundations, structures and institutions of the capitalist system. The question of this research paper is: can these theories work efficiently and successfully for the Iranian economy and solve its problems? In order to answer this question with an empirical-comparative method, the theories that have been formed according to the prevailing atmosphere in the capitalist system are examined, then the structures, situation and institutions governing the Iranian economy are scrutinized. It is concluded that according to the theories emerged in the sphere of capitalism and the institutions and structures formed within the framework of western economy and the behaviors created whatsoever, substantially differs from that of Iran's economy and can not be utilised, whether in policy making or even the analysis of Iran's economic conditions.

The purpose of this research is to provide a marketing model in recession conditions. The results of this study indicate the extraction of 6 main dimensions and 21 pivotal components which are in the form of a paradigm model including marketing proportional to recession conditions as a pivotal category and causal conditions (payments and bonuses during recession, economic and competitive situation during recession, rapid environmental changes during recession period and internal and external environmental conditions), underlying factors (the company's position in the market during recession, customer recognition and needs). They were in recession, creativity in marketing during the recession and marketing mix during the recession), interventionist conditions (increasing market share during the recession period, financial and human factors during the recession period, distribution channels and marketing network during the recession), strategies (differentiation strategy, cost strategy, contraction strategy and development strategy) and outcomes (continuation of customer relationship during recession, development of skills and creativity of enterprises and proper use of resources in the period stagnation) has been achieved.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of boom and recession with energy prices on energy consumption (electricity, non-electricity and total) in Iran with an asymmetric method. For this purpose, for asymmetric analysis in the research model in three formats (based on total energy consumption, non-electricity and electricity) and five levels (total economy and household, commercial, public and industrial sectors) of asymmetric explanations, an nonlinesr autoregressive distributed lag approach has been used. Long-term results indicate that economic boom in every 15 estimates has a direct impact on energy consumption and in terms of size, in most cases, the elasticity of energy consumption relative to economic boom is greater than one. However, the recession is associated with a significant (and of course direct) effect in only 4 out of 15 estimates, and its impact is less than the economic boom. In the first format, at the level of the whole economy and at the level of the commercial, public and industrial sectors, production has an asymmetric effect, and at the household level, production has a symmetrical effect on total energy consumption. In the second format, at the level of the whole economy and at the level of the household, commercial and public sectors, production has an asymmetric effect and at the industry level, production has a symmetrical effect on non-electricity energy consumption. In the third format, at all five levels, production has an asymmetric effect on electricity consumption. The real energy price, although in ...

Foreign direct investment flows affect domestic investment in various dimensions. The specific feature of the effect of FDI on domestic investment relates to its complementary or substitution effect on domestic investment. In assessing the impact of FDI on domestic investment the key question is whether the FDI flow will lead to an increase or decrease in domestic investment?. So that the aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of foreign direct investment on domestic investment in Iran with a focus on business cycles during the period 1984- 2017. The boom and stagnation periods were estimated using the Markov-switching model. Then, using the ARDL method, the impact of boom times and recession on the effect of FDI on domestic investment was investigated. The results showed that FDI had a significant negative impact on domestic investment in both periods of boom and recession. But the impact of FDI and the cross-cutting effect of FDI during the recession are much stronger than the total impact of FDI and the period of economic boom on domestic investment. FDI, therefore, has a stronger crowding in effects on domestic investment during the recession compared to the boom period. Government stability also had a direct impact on domestic investment, While Interest rates, consumer price indices and trade had a negative impact on Iran's domestic investment.

Changes in macroeconomic indices and variables such as the decline in GDP, the decline in oil exports, and the exchange rate fluctuation indicate a period of recession in the Iranian economy. In this paper, the Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) and the MH algorithm are used to identify the factors that contributed to this recession during the years 0-1. The studies show that the results of MH algorithm confirm the model estimation results using Monte Carlo Markov chain approach and at 95% confidence level the coefficients of the variables are statistically significant and reliable. Therefore, the most influential variables on the recession were estimated by Monte Carlo approach, exchange rate changes, crude oil prices, and government corruption. The results also show that the Bayes factor matrix for all estimation models is well-reasoned. The later probabilities of regimes and the final exponential ratio show that the change points in the sixth pattern (with variables: exchange rates, crude oil prices, government corruption and productivity) are different from the rest of the models presented, so regime change occurs in this model.

The history of Iran's economy after the revolution has been in recession for some years and, with the 70s, this trend has deepened, and with the 1990s it seems that the real GDP trend is making serious changes. In this paper, the Markov chain Monte Carlo and Byesian approach are used to simulate the effects of factors affecting the economic recession in Iran during the years 1979- 2016. The results show that the Bayesian approach confirm the results of the model estimation using the Monte Carlo Markov chain approach, and at a reliable level, 97.5% of the coefficients of the variables are statistically significant and reliable. so, the most influential variables were estimated on the economic recession in Iran, exchange rate changes, crude oil prices, and real GDP. The results also show that the matrix of Bayes factors for all pairings of models is reliable. The later probabilities of regimes and the likelihood ratio indicate that the change points in the sixth model are different with the rest of the models, so the regime change is happening in the sixth model.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the possibility of non-linear behavior of exchange rate pass-through in the states of boom and recession in Iran. To the best of our knowledge, this issue has not studied for Iran. To this end, using monthly data for the period of 2002:4-2017:3, we estimate a structural threshold vector autoregressive (STVAR) model. Our endogenous variables include exchange rate, import price index, producer price index, consumer price index, industrial production index, and the interest rate. The results show that an increase in exchange rate has positive impacts on import price, producer price and consumer price indices. The impulse-response functions indicate that the reactions of the import price, the producer price and the consumer price to exchange rate shock are higher in the boom than that in the recession. Hence, our finding confirms the non-linear behavior of the exchange rate pass-through in Iran. Moreover, the degree of exchange rate pass-through in Iran is incomplete. The results show that the policymaker should take into consideration the importance of non-linear behavior of exchange rate pass-through when conducting an exchange rate policy in Iran.

One of the important issues in the energy economy for policy making is the proper understanding of energy demand and the correct estimation of price and income elasticity. So far, extensive efforts have been made to estimate the elasticity of the energy demand in Iran, but the problem of the asymmetry of the demand dynamics and the change in the coefficients of the model during the boom and recession have been less widely considered. Therefore, in the present paper, considering the threshold error correction model, the dynamics of energy demand in Iran during the period of 1978-2014, is estimated with the consideration of the difference in the recession and economic boom. The results of this study indicate that there are two different regimes in energy demand dynamics in Iran. In recession, price and income elasticity of demand as well as the speed of adjustment is lower. While at the time of the boom, the flexibility of the demanders for reaction was greater, and so the price and income elasticity and speed of adjustment were higher. On this basis, although energy demand is inelastic at the time of the boom and in recession, and hence the implementation of pricing policies cannot be effective on demand, the effectiveness of these policies can be greater during the economic boom than the recession.

In this research, we attempt to investigate the effect of economic boom and recession on environmental pollution in Iran through an asymmetric approach. To this end, an autoregressive approach with nonlinear distributive pause was used with the data for the period (1971-2017) to explain and describe the asymmetry; Accordingly, a basic model (for the entire economy) and three partial patterns (for household, commercial and public sector, industrial sector, as well as transportation sector) have been estimated. The results indicate that in the short run and the long run, the economic boom and recession have a directimpact on carbon dioxide emissions. That is to say, as GDPincreases (the economic boom), with the expansion of activities in all aforementioned economic sectors, increased usage of resources leads to the surge of pollution emissions. On the other hand, during the economic recession, which is accompanied by reduction in activities in sectors such as the industrial sector (as one of the most energy-consuming sectors in the economy of Iran), the emission of pollutants is reduced. In addition, the presence of asymmetry in the effects of the production on environmental pollutant emissions are also confirmed. As a result, in the long-run, both in the overall economy as well as in the three sectors examined, the elasticity of pollutant emissions to production, is larger than the one during the economic boom, whereas it is less than the one during the economic recession. Therefore, the results suggest that legislators and economic policymakers pay special attention to improving the price of energy carriers in order to make energy usage more efficient.

The oil price shocks are one of the main sources of economic fluctuations in oil producing countries. The role of oil shocks as factors in economic growth of a country is important. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of oil price shocks on business cycle in Iran by using a Markov Switching approach during the seasonal period of 1988(2)_2014(4). The results of Markov Switching model indicate that oil price fluctuations has had a positive impact on business cycle during the boom period and it has had a negative impact on business cycle during recission period and the stability of the two regimes is roughly equal and close together. The results also show that Iran's economy has experienced 52 recession seasons and 50 seasons of boom in the period under consideration that, on average, we can say the length of the recession and the boom was equal.

The recession is an economic situation that simultaneously creates economic inflation and economic recession and increases the unemployment rate in the country. in this research we Consider the role of the bank as the main factor in the financial market of the country and , the role of financial sector indicators in creating the country's long-term and short-term inflationary recession by using the ordinary least square (OLS) and error correction model (ECM) between 1352-1952. The results show that in the long run, the indexes of the Bank and stock market have a positive effect on the construction of a recession in the country, while the insurance has a versa correlation with the recessionary index. In the short-term results, among the financial market variables, only the coefficients of stock and insurance indices were statistically significant. This means that the bank facility index as a representative of banking activity did not affect the recession in the short run.

This paper examines the existence of asymmetry in the monetary policy effect on real nonoil-output in Iran during 1978-2014. In this order, the Markov switching model is applied to answer the question that does monetary policy have the same effect regardless of the current phase of economic fluctuations. In another word, if it is assumed that the economy is in a recession period, does an increase in liquidity raise the probability of a boom? Indeed, we want to examine of monetary policy effects on the economy when it can turn the economy condition from a recession to a boom. The results show that asymmetric effect of monetary policy on the real nonoil output is evident in Iran's economy. The findings indicate a negative liquidity shock reduces the nonoil output growth, and this reduction is more when it happens in a boom. In contrast, a positive liquidity shock improves the nonoil output growth, and its positive effects are stronger during recessions.

The aim of this paper is to study and forecast the business cycles in Iran’s economy in the period 1370-1392. For this purpose, quarterly data are used, and the business cycles that have occurred are extracted by using the Band-Pass filter. Then, in order to predict the business cycles, logit and probit regression methods are used. According to the nominal and real indices that affect the business cycles, the variables used in this research include oil revenues, government spending, inflation, issued building permits, and the imports of intermediate and capital goods. The results indicate that if oil revenues and inflation increase, the probability of economic boom increases too. However, an increase in the number of issued building permits reduces the probability of a boom in the economy. Finally, imports of capital and intermediate goods increase the probability of a boom. A sample prediction showed that the model could classify the observations correctly in 95% of the cases. It is also concluded that, the sample predicting ability of all the models is the same. The model was also applied to the out-of-sample prediction for the period 1394-1392. The results indicate the ability of the model to deal with this kind of prediction.

In the case of a liquidity shortage crisis, illiquid banks start to compete in the deposit market to absorb liquidity, in order to prevent fire-selling their assets. This paper attempts to show that in such crisis, not only the competition in the deposit market does not improve the liquidity needs of these banks but it also raises the deposit interest rates in the market, increases the cost of fund for financial institutions and reduces their power to manage their other obligations. The findings indicate that with high liquidity shortages, there is a contagion in the market such that the liquid banks become illiquid too, declining their financial stability. From this perspective, the results provide a theoretical rationale in favor of central bank’s intervention. This study analyzes various central bank policies and regulation which can reduce these inefficiencies in the market and compare their effectiveness; these policies and regulations include: deposit rate cap, cap rates in the interbank market, excluding illiquid banks from entering the interbank market, interbank intervention by injection and short term bailouts.

This research examines business-cycle fluctuations by using Knowledge-based Economy Index (KEI). Data have been collected using consolidated method in 116 countries over the period 1990 -2012. Impact of business cycle's fluctuations has been studied according to the level of the countrie's economic knowledge. In this classification, countries were divided to three categories: high, medium and low knowledge-based economies. The generalized method of moments (GMM) and system of simultaneous equations were used to estimate the models, and differential equations were applied for interpreting the results. The findings are described in three parts: top countries with high KEI scores experience decreasing and damped business cycle fluctuations. Those oscillations are convergent, and knowledge-based supply and demand in these countries are proportional. The countries with medium KEI scores have stable and iterative business cycle fluctuations, their movements are nearly convergent, and supply and demand are almost knowledge-based. The countries with low KEI scores are capable of instable and very high business cycle oscillations, and there is knowledge-based demand in these countries, but there is no appropriate supply with it, which results in divergent movements in business cycles.

In the economy of Iran, that is financial system "bank- based", in some years faced the phenomenon of "stagflation"; mobilization and allocation of resources in the economy by the banking system. Thus, according to the Bank's role in the economy, especially corporate financing, its role in the realization of the phenomenon of stagflation is inevitable.
This paper, using the analytical method and using a valid library and internet resources, tries to explore the hypothesis that "the economy Bank- based of Iran, Bank plays an important role in the occurrence of the phenomenon of stagflation in the economy".
Article concluded that according to the bank - based financial system, lack of lending by banks, moving toward participation contracts, Increase in Non-Current receivables, non-return government debt, contractors and government agencies to banks, increasing the share of banks and estate agents And also an increase in bank overdrafts central banks of the major reasons for the Bank's role in the occurrence of the phenomenon of stagflation in the country's economy.

Over past decades there have been conflicting views on whether raising the minimum wage increases inflation. This study updates and expands earlier research into this subject and fills a void in the empirical literature by studying that the impacts of the minimum wage on inflation could be altered in the different economic situations. In framework of cost push inflation theoretical background, the direct and indirect effects of minimum wage changes on wage and inflation can be seen as taking place in several stages. The overall wage inflation outcome can, of course, also depend on the position of the economy in a particular stage of the business cycle. To examine this hypothesis, we used a Markov regime-switching model to study the impact of minimum wage increases on inflation over expansion or recession situations in Iran during the 1973- 2013 period. The comparison between a single-regime and regime shifting models provides the similar results for the sample period. The most important finding of this study is that there is no significant impact of minimum wage increases on inflation regardless of economic situations. However, the results show that the inflation shock positively impacts minimum wage in both models. In sum, our results provide a significant contribution to the empirical literature by verifying that the effectiveness of minimum wage on inflation is not dependent on the business cycle economic situation. The main policy implication for Iran's economy deriving from this study is that the minimum wages should be increased to compensate wage workers for real-wage decrease caused by inflation, without any concern about its inflationary effects.