جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « drought » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد کشاورزی »

The dependence of agriculture on environmental conditions has caused the activity in this sector to face natural and unnatural risks. After several years of agricultural insurance activity in Razavi Khorasan province, most of the pistachio farmers are not insured. Drought insurance is one of the methods that has become important to cover the risks of drought and lack of water resources in order to compensate part of the gardeners' losses. The main issue from a managerial perspective is risk management. The use of agricultural insurance, which is one of the risk management tools, will ensure financial security and stability for farmers. Given that insurance is a tool for risk management, and given the uncertainty and risks of climate change in agriculture, insurance can be a very adaptable tool to water scarcity. Agricultural insurance is considered as a useful and appropriate solution to deal with natural hazards. . Drought insurance is an important factor in off-farm drought risk management that can mitigate the effects of this inevitable phenomenon. Insurance as one of the risk management tools can increase the risk-taking of farmers and, consequently, increase the sense of security in farmers, the necessary ground for proper and efficient use of factors of production and investment in the use of new technology and thus increase productivity in agriculture provide. The effects of water scarcity can be summarized as follows; Loss of production and income, abandonment of busy crops (with high water demand) and decline in agricultural employment, on the other hand, intensifies the over-exploitation of groundwater aquifers, which has tempted many farmers to do so meet your water needs. Access to water in the study area is one of the important variables affecting pistachio yield and quality as well as the survival of pistachio trees. This variable directly affects the profitability of producers and gardeners may suffer losses from this vital input. For this reason, gardeners' behavior in relation to regular pistachio insurance can affect access to water and make more farmers inclined to drought insurance.

This research seeks to answer the question that with 5% reduction in available water, pistachio growers in Sabzevar city, whether these people are willing to accept pistachio drought insurance or not, and if so, what is the extent of this desire. The Probit pattern is one of the most suitable econometric patterns for censored observations. This model was first proposed by Tobin (1958) to estimate the demand for durable goods. Subsequently, Arab Mazar and Schmidt (1979), Brown and Mufit (1982), Madela and Nelson (1982), and Hard (1975) worked on and developed the model, validating its high capability. This pattern was named by Goldberger (1964) as the Tobit or Probin Tobin model. Assume that y is the level of activity or action desired and xi are factors that generally affect the level of activity or action in question, namely:Also assume that one group of the observed observations performs the desired activity and the other group (the rest) does not perform the desired activity. As mentioned earlier, the values of xi and yi are visible for the first group. While for the second group only xi values are available and yi values are zero.In Hackmann's proposed two-step method for estimating the Tobit model, it is assumed that one set of variables may influence the decision to participate in the activity and another set of variables may affect the amount of activity performed after the decision is made. Therefore, two different sets of variables can be included in the Probit model, which are not necessarily barriers to aggregation. Therefore, two different sets of variables can be included in the Tobit model, which are not necessarily barriers to aggregation. Because it does not have a one-step model of this flexibility, it assumes that the variables influencing a person's decision to engage in an activity are the same as the variables that determine the amount of activity, if this is not necessarily the case. Hackman's two suggested steps are:Step 1: In the first step, the variables that affect the decision of gardeners in accepting pistachio drought insurance are identified and placed in a model with a binary dependent variable (zeros and ones); This means that the positive values of the dependent variable that indicate the tendency to accept pistachio drought insurance become the number one, and the dependent variable that does not tend to accept the drought insurance is set to zero. The number one means the decision to perform the activity and zero means the non-performance of the activity. At this stage, in order to identify the factors influencing the individual's decision, the Probit Model is used and estimated by the maximumlikelihood method. The first step is to create a new variable inverse of the Mills ratio to enter the second step. In other words, this variable is the first and second stage communication bridge.Step 2: In the second stage, the measures affecting the willingness to participate in drought insurance after the decision is made along with the inverse Mills ratio variable are placed in a classical regression model. The dependent variable in the second stage is the amount of garden area likely to be allocated to drought insurance.Reasons to use the Tobit model: Many econometric models face two types of errors, either due to the use of specific observation data or due to the structural features of the models: first, the error due to incorrect sample selection, which usually occurs in using classical regression models, and second, the same error Assuming effective variables in the decision stage and the amount of activity performed after the decision is made (decision and action or intention and action), which usually occurs in regression models with binary and multiple responses. The Tobit model has been developed to prevent the occurrence of these two types of errors in studies.The first error is the error of incorrect sample selection; in the sense that in many econometric models, information is obtained only from observations that have acted on the activity and omits observations that have refused to do that activity. Therefore, these models are not able to assess the reaction of observations that did not act on the independent variable changes. Tobit model (type one) solves this problem in terms of observations that have performed the desired activity as well as other observations. Under these conditions, the effect of changes in independent variables on both the total observations and on the observations of the activity can be calculated separately.The second error means that the factors that influence a person's decision to perform an activity are not necessarily the same as the factors that determine the amount and level of activity desired, and can be two different sets of variables. The Tobit model (type two, Hackett or Hackman two-stage) solves this problem by separating the factors influencing the decision and the amount of activity.

The data show that the response of pistachio growers to the reduction of available water in the next 2 and 5 years is that all gardeners will insure their pistachio orchards with a 5% reduction in available water, but in terms of area under cultivation, only 39% Gardeners will increase their arable land in the next 2 years and 33% of gardeners in the next 5 years. The reaction of gardeners who did not have a history of pistachio insurance to accept pistachio insurance and increase or decrease the area under pistachio orchard in exchange for a 5%  reduction in available water in the next 2 and 5 years shows that about 51% of gardeners face a 5%  reduction in water in 2 And in the next 5 years, they will insure their pistachio orchards, and about 60%  of gardeners will increase their cultivation in the next 2 or 5 years in the face of a 5%  reduction in available water. The results of the evaluation of gardeners' reaction to the continuation of the horticultural profession in the face of a 5%  reduction in available water in the next 2 years will cause 34%  of gardeners not to continue this profession and 51%  of gardeners will not continue this profession in the next 5 years. In the long run, water shortages can reduce the incentive for gardeners to grow pistachios. The reaction of gardeners to pistachio insurance against the reduction of available water quality shows that only 1.38 percent of the total population in the face of reduced quality of available water reduce the level of their insured garden and about 30% of them faced with declining available water quality, they will increase the level of their insured garden; And the rest of the gardeners (about 68.6%) do not change their insured level in the face of declining water quality.

According to the obtained information, the variables as gardener's age, ownership, relationship between gardener's field of study and agriculture, location, variety of cultivation, existence of insured pistachio garden in the neighborhood, frequency of risk, total water available to each gardener and garden life of each gardener in the first stage (Probit Model) have positive coefficients; which indicates the positive effect of these variables on the probability of willingness to accept pistachio drought insurance. In the second stage (linear regression), the variables of pistachio horticulture history, frequency of risk, garden life and total number of water hours available to gardeners have positive coefficients, which indicate the positive effect of these variables on the dependent variable of the second stage, is the tendency to accept pistachio drought insurance.

In order to investigate the effect of using superabsorbent polymer on some growth parameters and performance of chickpea under drought stress conditions, a factorial experiment was carried out in the form of a randomized complete block design with four replications in the crop year of 2021 in Horand region of East Azarbaijan province. The experimental treatments include three levels of irrigation (full irrigation as a control, mild water restriction or irrigation interruption in the pod setting stage, and severe water restriction or irrigation interruption in the flowering stage) and different amounts of superabsorbent (no use of superabsorbent, 50, 100 and 150 kg/ha), respectively. The results of the analysis of variance of the studied traits showed that the application of stress and the effect of using superabsorbent polymer on all the evaluated traits were significant at the probability level of 1%. The interaction of drought stress and superabsorbent polymer on plant height, leaf chlorophyll content, number of pods per plant, grain yield and biological yield at the probability level of 1% and had no significant effect on other traits. so that the highest grain yield (1710.94 kg.ha-1) was given to the treatment (full irrigation and 150 kg.ha-1). The results showed that with increasing drought stress, the values of physiological traits such as chlorophyll content and relative water content of leaves decreased, but proline content of leaves increased. If the use of superabsorbent significantly increased the physiological traits. According to the obtained results, the superabsorbent reduced the damage caused by drought.

Drought is one of the most important climate hazards that has social, economic and environmental effects. This phenomenon is a great threat to agriculture and development. Droughts occur every year in some parts of Iran and cause a lot of damage. As a result of the recent droughts, according to estimates, in Boyer Ahmad county, the area under water wheat cultivation in 2019 compared to 2012 has decreased by about 26%. Therefore, addressing the issue of drought seems inevitable. The purpose of this research is to know the effects of agricultural drought in the rural areas of Kabgian district of Boyer Ahmad county. The sample size was selected based on Bartlett's table of 180 people and data analysis was done by content analysis method and SPSS software and by factor analysis method. The results show that the factors of economic resilience, social resilience and infrastructural-management were identified as the most important and main factors of the economic, social and environmental effects of drought, respectively. The construction of small dams and floodgate is the main infrastructure factor in the opinion of the farmers of the study area to reduce the consequences of drought.

Water-based incidents are natural phenomena that have posed Iran to serious crises. Despite efforts to settle water crises and improve the conditions, we still witness a growing trend of water issues, especially in the agricultural sector in Iran. A necessary step to face water-based incidents and alleviate their implications is to have a deep understanding of resilience dimensions to enhance the tolerance level of the farmers. The present study evaluated farmers’ resilience level in the face of water-based crises in Harsin County. The research, which adopted a descriptive survey methodology, was conducted in 2020. The statistical population was composed of the heads of rural households in four rural districts of the county, amounting to about 6000 people. The sample size was determined to be 361 farmers based on Morgan’s table. The measurement instrument was a questionnaire whose validity was confirmed by a panel of experts and professionals and its reliability was confirmed for all sections as their Cronbach’s alpha was estimated at >0.8. SPSS was used for data analysis and Expert Choice was used for pairwise comparisons. Based on the results of the pairwise comparisons, infrastructural resilience to drought has the highest level of importance in the concept of resilience. According to the results of the study, the resilience level was evaluated to be relatively low in all studied rural districts, and the difference in the level of resilience among the studied villages is significant. Also, farmers with irrigated farming have a higher level of resilience than farmers with rainfed farming.

Given the climate change and the need to protect the environment, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, it is necessary to adopt a new mechanism for the equitable allocation of scarce water resources and the resulting benefits among stakeholders. This study used a Cooperative Game Theory (CGT) framework in order to analyze water management under water scarcity and drought conditions in Qarehsou River Basin of Golestan province of Iran. The required data were collected through a survey research and completing the questionnaires in the cropping year of 2017-2018. Loehman stability index was used to investigate the willingness of stakeholders to participate in coalition and the determination of stability. The results showed achieving full cooperation would increase the total benefit of basin. The study of the stability index showed that in general, the grand coalition based on Nash-Harsanyi was more stable than the Shapley value and Nucleolus in drought scenarios. As a result, the cooperation between stakeholders should be increased in the form of basin coordination councils to protect the ecosystem and preserve the economic interests of basin in conditions of water scarcity. The CGT solutions and power index examined demonstrate the importance of combining the strategic behavior of stakeholders in designing acceptable and sustainable policies to reduce the effects of drought in the basin. Therefore, it is recommended to apply Nash-Harsanyi solution to redistribute the benefits of cooperation between stakeholders in the basin; in other words, the distribution of cooperative benefits between stakeholders is based on relative weights, which is calculated based on the maximum demand of water users in the non-cooperative model within a cooperative theory.

 Given the growing global hunger in recent years, creating and increasing resilience among disadvantaged and impoverished communities, emphasized in the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, is a significant concern to most countries. The term resilience is generally considered as the capacity of a system to withstand various risks, and household resilience can be defined as the ability to return to the previous level of living conditions after a shock. Since one of the most critical shocks that farmers have faced in Iran is drought, the present study aimed to estimate the effect of drought on rural farmers’ household resilience in a selected village in Qalandar Abad district in Iran.

 The factor analysis method was used to estimate the components of the Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis (RIMA) of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the Mimic (Multiple indicators_ multiple causes) method was used to estimate the latent variable of resilience. RIMA, which considers resilience as a latent variable, includes four main components of Access to Basic Services (ABS), Assets (AST), Social Safety Nets (SSN), and Adaptive Capacity (AC). Also, according to the purpose of the study on estimating the resilience of rural households with the MIMIC method, at least two food security indicators at the household level, as multiple indicators of resilience, are required. The food security indices used in the calculations of this study include the Household Hunger Scale Index and the household Food Consumption Score. The samples included 149 farmers randomly selected from Hossein Abad Rekhneh Gol village, and data were collected through interviews with the household head. To reveal the effect of different shocks on the rural resilience households, self-reported information such as drought, livestock loss, and the characteristics of the households were used through an Ordinary Last Square regression.  

 In the first stage, each of the pillars of resilience, including Access to Basic Services, Assets, Social Safety Nets, and Adaptive Capacity, which are considered latent variables, shows a higher correlation between the variables, and the calculated pillars indicate the greater importance of that variable in each of the resilience components. According to the results, among the variables that constitute the pillar of access to basic services, "the distance from the household to the health center" variable correlates with this pillar, which indicates its high importance. In addition, the "attending school years" is one of the most important variables in forming and creating the adaptive capacity of a household to the crises ahead. The agricultural water availability and the total yield during a year play an important role in creating the asset pillar. Regarding creating the social safety nets pillar, as we expected, the governmental cash transfers, through monthly subsidies, the Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation, and the State Welfare Organization of Iran, is the most crucial variable. The results obtained from the food consumption (FCS) score index showed that 117 out of 149 studied households are within the acceptable threshold, 28 households are on the borderline, and four households are in a poor food consumption situation. The Hunger Scale Index showed that out of 149 households, 62 households are on the little to no hunger threshold, while 81 households are on the moderate hunger and six households are on the severe hunger threshold. Also, based on the results of the MIMIC model, among the calculated pillars, household assets is the most important. The increase of one standard deviation unit in AST will increase 0.06 standard deviation units in the resilience capacity index. Adaptive capacity and social safety nets pillars also play a significant role in creating resilience for rural households. Thus, increasing one standard deviation in the AC and SSN led to an increase in the magnitude of the resilience by 0.04 and 0.03 standard deviations, respectively. Finally, the effect of different shocks on the rural resilience households showed that variables such as drought, livestock loss, and gender of household head (being female) have a negative effect on their resilience. The size of the household has a positive impact, which means that the more family members, the more resilience.

 One of the critical goals of underdeveloped and developing countries, is to eradicate poverty and achieve sustainable development. In Iran, like other developing countries, smallholder farmers are known to be vulnerable to environmental and economic changes such as climate change, rising prices of agricultural inputs, etc. Therefore, adopting and implementing policies that lead to a fair income distribution for vulnerable people is essential. Estimating the RIMA makes it possible to rank households based on their strengths, weaknesses, and current needs. Budget allocation and the policy time duration are two limiting factors that may optimize using the RIMA results. The present study examined the RIMA and the effect of drought on the calculated index for the first time in Iran for a specific region. Since the ranking of households based on resilience requires awareness of all vulnerable households' situations, the definition of short-term and long-term projects in the future development plans is essential. To identify "the most vulnerable groups" and "the most important challenges and shocks," these scheduled projects are vital for budget allocation prioritization.

Drought as a natural shock can potentially reduce the livelihood and well-being of rural households and encourage them to migrate from the Villages. The possible drought of Lake Urmia along with the drought will intensify the phenomenon of migration of villagers. Having a correct understanding and insight of this issue will play an important role in policy making. This descriptive and correlational study was conducted to design a model of effective factors in the migration intention of farmers in the Urmia Lake Basin. The statistical population was all rural households in East and West Azerbaijan provinces, 495 of which were selected and studied by multi-stage random sampling. The research instrument was a researcher-made questionnaire whose validity was confirmed by experts of Zanjan University and Urmia Lake Studies Research Institute and its reliability was obtained by conducting a pretest and calculating Cronbach's alpha coefficient greater than 0.7 for composite indices. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that the tendency of men to work migration is the most important factor in the tendency of households to migrate. Having a house in the city, understanding the risk of the lake drying up on family life, share of income from the agricultural sector were other factors affecting household migration. Understanding the risk of lake drying on rural life, the percentage of income from agriculture, the amount of social capital, attitudes toward drought and its management were also factors influencing men's willingness to migrate. Given the important role of earning income and employment of men in the family, proper government policy in creating employment for villagers and starting non-agricultural businesses have an important role in preventing the migration of villagers in the region.

In order to study the effect of irrigation cycle and size of mother corms on flower yield and daughter corms in saffron, an experiment was conducted in Ghaen region in 2016 crop year using a split plot design. The main factor was irrigation cycles (2, 3 and 4 weeks) and the secondary factor was the size of corm (less than 4 g, 4 to 8 g, 8 to 12 and 12 to 16 g). The interaction effect of irrigation cycle and pistachio size on flower-related traits was insignificant and on female pistachio-related traits was significant. In mother corms less than 4 g and 4 to 8 g, irrigation cycle had no effect on the dry weight of daughter corms produced per square meter. Irrigation of mother corms 8 to 12 g and 12 to 18 g every two weeks, respectively, produced 3689 g and 4230 g of female corm per square meter, which increased by 7.5 and 9, respectively, compared to the four-week irrigation cycle. / 4% of this adjective. In mother corms less than 4 g, the two-week irrigation cycle increased the number of female corms per square by 7.5% compared to the four-week irrigation period and decreased the diameter of female corms by 9.5%, but in other sizes of mother corms There was no difference between irrigation cycles in terms of number of female corms per square meter and diameter of female corms.

Sustainable management of water resources in Iran, which has historically suffered from water scarcity, is of great importance. Sustainable management of historical structures for the exploitation of water resources, the most prominent of which is the Qanats, seems to be very important, especially in the central plateau of Iran. So, the present study was conducted with the aim of identifying sustainable management strategies for water resources of Qanats in Yazd province, Iran. The present study was applied and was conducted by survey method. The statistical population included farmers directly exploiting the Qanats of Yazd province (N = 30662) of which 280 people were randomly selected as a sample with proportional assignment sampling method. The validity of the research instrument confirmed, using a panel of experts and its reliability confirmed, using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. Data analysis was performed using two methods of descriptive statistics and analytical statistics (factor analysis and nonparametric comparative analysis) using SPSS21 software. The results of exploratory factor analysis of sustainable water use management strategies showed that six categories of legal strategies - protection, technical-production, research-educational and extension, participatory and preservation of indigenous knowledge, income diversity and environmental strategies could explain 70.645% of the total variance. Non-parametric U-Mann-Whitney comparative test showed that from the farmers' point of view, in almost all sustainable management strategies, the rate of implementation was significantly less than their importance. The findings provided suggestions to improve the situation of sustainable management of Qanats in the country.

The current research was conducted with the aim to investigate the effect of salicylic acid on the growth traits, photosynthetic pigments and the amount of essential oil in Mentha piperita under drought stress. The factorial experiment was carried out in the form of randomized complete block design and with three repetitions. Factors included irrigation round at four levels (90 (control), 75, 45, and 20% field capacity) and salicylic acid at two levels (zero (control) and 60 ppm). The investigated traits included the plant height, number of lateral branches, length of lateral branches, number of nodes, fresh and dry weight of the plant, fresh and dry weight of the stem, chlorophyll a, b and total carotenoids, and essential oil percentage and yield. Results from this experiment showed that the effect of drought stress on all studied traits was significant at the statistical level of 1%. The mutual effect of drought stress on salicylic acid hormone for the length of lateral branches, fresh and dry weight of the plant,  chlorophyll  a, b and total and essential oil percentage and yield traits was significant. Stress caused a reduction in all traits except for fresh and dry weight of the stem; and the use of salicylic acid led to the reduced effects of stress such that the highest values of these traits were obtained from 60 ppm salicylic acid. Given the mutual effects, the highest values of essential oil percentage and yield obtained from 90% of field capacity and application of salicylic acid. Overall, the application of this hormone led to the improvement of qualitative and quantitative characteristics of Mentha piperita under drought stress.

Alfalfa is the most important forage crop in Iran, which is cultivated in almost all provinces of the country. Considering the economic importance of alfalfa and its sensitivity to drought stress and its special physiological characteristics in drought resistance, this study investigates the risk of drought in different regions on the one hand and the relationship between alfalfa production and drought-determining parameters on the other hand. For this purpose, first the probability of drought in different regions of Iran was calculated based on RDI index, which showed that the probability of drought in some eastern regions of the country is higher than other regions. Then, by estimating the climatic response function of alfalfa yield based on the time series data of 1992-2016 and using the spatial panel method, the effects of precipitation and temperature changes as the two main effective drought reversals on alfalfa yield were investigated. Based on the results of this study and taking into account climate forecasts and the status of available water resources in the future, the development of alfalfa cultivation in the northwestern and western regions of the country and limiting the cultivation of this crop in the eastern regions, will have positive economic effects. Also, using the physiological characteristics of alfalfa in dormancy with temporary cessation of irrigation and allocation of water to alfalfa rotation can be used as a strategy in managing water consumption in drought stress conditions.

Assessing the potential effects of drought in agriculture and water resources management, as well as providing solutions to deal with it, is an important step in the development of agricultural activities. Therefore, in the present study the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to determine the different intensities of drought and its occurrence was used during the study period (2002-2018). Then, by using the Positive Mathematical Planning (PMP) model, the potential effects of drought on the cropping pattern and farmers' livelihoods of in the southern basin of Tehran province were analyzed. The required data are documentary and registered in the relevant government agencies which were collected in two sections, time series (2002-2018) and cross-section (2017-2018). The results showed that the probability of severe drought in the southern basin of Tehran province is about 6/25 percent. Decreasing the acrage of high consumption water products such as watermelon, corn, sunflower and increasing the acrage of wheat and barley are other obtained results under drought conditions in Tehran province. Decrease of 3/00 to 19/4 percent of farmers' gross profit and increase of 13/2 to 115/6 percent of the economic value of irrigation water are other consequences of this phenomenon under mild to severe intensities. According to the obtained results in this study, in order to reduce the risk of hydrological drought and farmers' exposure with this event in southern basin of Tehran province, in the first step it is recommended that the modification of optimal cropping patternin in order to reduce the acrage of water-filled products (such as sunflower and watermelon) and replace it with the acrage of products with higher profit to water ratio (such as corn and canola) be prioritized. In the next step, it is suggested that due to the elasticity of agricultural water input to price changes in the southern basin of Tehran province (ewater = -0/96), the correct implementation of water pricing policy in accordance with the trend of changes in the economic value of water input and observance of the principle equality consideration in drought conditions should be considered by the public sector.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of farmers' time perspective on their drought risk management behavior in downstream of Karkheh dam. This research is a descriptive-correlational and ex post facto research that was conducted using a survey. The statistical population was farmes who were members in water user association in downstream of Karkheh dam, Khuzestan province (N=3668) which 350 of them were selected using Karjesi and Morgan table and stratified random sampling method with proportional assignment. The research instrument was a questionnaire whose validity was confirmed by a panel of experts in the field of agricultural extension and education and its reliability was determined using the Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.79≤α≤0.92). The findings indicated that farmers' risk management behavior is moderate and most farmers have a present-oriented viewpoint. Also, from the viewpoint of time perspective, there is a significant difference between past-orientd farmers and others (present-orinted and future-orinted farmers) from the perspective of drought risk management practices, and the past-orientd group exhibits a weaker behavior in this regard. Accordingly, as a policy strategy in water resource management planning, shift farmers' time perspectives should be considered from past-oriented to present and, in particular, to future perspectives.

Drought is a natural hazard that causes the production and income losses and has severe effects on the poor households. In this context, a comprehensive assessment of economic impacts of drought provides critical information to drought mitigation policies and programs. To this end, the effects of drought on the output and employment of Iran's economy as a whole were examined using two models including a single-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) and a multi-regional computable general equilibrium (MRCGE) model. Applied data were obtained from the social accounting matrix (SAM) of year 2001 and Iranian input-output table of year 2006. The drought defined as lower access to water was considered in three scenarios of weak, moderate and sever options. The results obtained from single-regional CGE model indicated that GDP decreased by 1.7 to 5.5 percent based on the severity of drought; the corresponding values for MRCGE were 2.2-6.4 percent. Reduction of regional gross output for Kerman, Hamedan, Fars, and Ardabil provinces were more than those for other provinces. As shown by the results, a decrease in output induced a fall in employment, but a reduction in employment was found lower than those of output. Finally, the study recommended developing the water-saving measures as well as creating more jobs in rural industries.

Agriculture is one of the most important vulnerable sectors regarding drought phenomenon with significant impacts on the economy of countries. In many previous studies, drought risk management has been mentioned as one of the best scientific methods of drought management. In this regard, this study was conducted in Ferdows County, South Khorasan province of Iran, aiming at both identifying the drought risk indexes to assess agricultural drought risk factors of the region and providing a framework to plan an operational risk response. Precise determination of these indexes and their relative importance makes it possible to assess and analyze drought risk of that region; moreover, a definite framework for agricultural drought risk management can be developed. In this paper, a list of possible drought risk response actions was provided and then they were prioritized. Based on this initial prioritization, cost and difficulties of executing each drought risk response action, the final prioritization of drought risk response actions were determined. Since the risk assessment indexes and drought risk response actions were evaluated based on opinions of experts and linguistic variables, Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchal Process was used to determine the weight of each risk index, and Fuzzy TOPSIS was applied to determine the priority of risk response actions. The study results indicated the pivotal role of “reducing the groundwater and surface water use of agricultural activities” in addressing the agricultural drought and “subsurface irrigation” as the best reaction treatment

Drought is accompanied with a reduction in agriculture and food products, thus it may represent a threat to food security in addition that can induce a reduction in households’income. Given the relationship between agricultural and nonagricultural sectors, there needs to examine the drought effects comprehensively. To this end, in current study a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is applied to assess the effects of drought on households’ income and welfare as well as on food production index. Applied data were obtained from the social accounting matrix (SAM) of year1380 (2001). Drought, defined as lower access to water, was examined in three scenarios of weak (16%), moderate (36%) and sever options (47%). Welfare changes are measured by Hicksian equivalent variation (EV). The results indicated that the food production index was decreased by 5.8 to 27.8% according to the severity of drought. The corresponding values of welfare index are 6.2-27.1%. It was also found that drought induces a reduction in rural and urban households’ income, but reduction of income for rural households and especially for lower income groups is more than those for urban ones. The findings showed that terms of trade changes in favor of the agricultural sector, paving the way for investment in activities that increase scarce water resources productivity.

JEL Classification: C68, D58, P46, Q18, Q25, Q54

This descriptive and survey study aimed to identify educational needs of Fig growers in optimal water storage management in drought conditions. The target population in the study consisted all of the 4440 Fig growers in Estahban County. Using systematic randomized sampling method and Cochran formula, 350 Fig growers were selected as research samples. Data gathered through a questionnaire and its face validity was confirmed by investigation committee and researchers in Fig research center of Estahban. Reliability was determined by conducting a pilot study project and Cronbach's alpha coefficient for the main part of the questionnaire namely educational needs of Fig growers in optimal water storage management was 0.77. Data were analyzed using SPSS/Win19 software. The results showed that educational needs of Fig growers in optimal water storage management were soil texture amendment using sandy-clay soils, proper method of pruning and proper pruning time and determine the volume of any irrigation cycle. Also the correlation results showed that there was a significant correlation between variables such as education, participation in social activities, number refer to the Agricultural Service Center, attendance in extension classes, relationships with friends and neighbors and model farmers, Fig cultivation area, number meet with extension worker, the number of hours reading general newspapers during the day, the average age of the Fig trees, Fig garden distance to Agricultural Service Center, number of hours listening to the radio during the day and optimal water storage management. Also, the compare mean results showed that there is a significant difference between mean the amount of Fig grower’s information about optimal water storage management in terms of gender and main job. This study recommended continuing holding educational classes and attention to the provision of the necessary measures to more communicate and interact between Fig growers and experts and their benefit from expert advice with the centrality of optimal water storage management issue.

Climate change and water scarcity is the most important current and future challenge of Iran’s agriculture. Improving the resilience of climate depended socio-economic systems depends on understanding the climate change and it impacts. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to use available literature to develop a conceptual model to explain the link between climate change, poverty and vulnerability in developing countries including Iran. The conceptual model proposed by this study provides a clear and visual understanding of the processes involved. The phenomenon of climate change is happening and we will observe changes in average climatic conditions, climate variability, frequency and magnitude of extreme events such as heat stress, drought and flooding. The causal conditions of climate change are both natural and anthropogenic. The anthropogenic or human induced change is of great importance because they are responsible for unprecedented current and future climate change. Most predictive models indicate that the consequences of climate change for developing countries are increasing poverty and food insecurity. Historical analysis of Iran’s agricultural water resources indicated that the intrinsic sustainability of water resources has been lost and the country is facing water crisis. Farmers’ capacity for sustainable water management has reduced and it seems difficult for the waster system of the country to remain resilient. Population increase, decrease of per capita available water resources, reduction of possibility to increase cultivation area and increase in socioeconomic disparities will contribute to poverty and food insecurity. Therefore an integrated drought mitigation action plan is needed to improve the copying ability of agricultural socioeconomic systems of Iran.

The agriculture sector is the largest water consumer in arid and semi-arid areas. So water scarcity has an important effect on this section. Drought as one of the most important factors in making crisis in Zayanderud river basin (ZRB) has a deep effect on the agriculture sector. This study evaluates the drought effects on irrigation land and farmers profit on the east of ZRB by using SPI and CBA. The required data is collected by questionnaire and face-to-face interview with 140 farmers in the east of ZRB in 2013. At first we determined climatic scenarios by using Esfahan and Chadegan stations and SPI index during 1970-2012. After that the effects of wet, normal and dry scenarios are shown on streamflow and irrigation land. The results show that wheat, rice and safflower that depend highly on river, decrease on land area sequentially in scale of 68%, 92% and 51%. In addition the decrease of profit of these products are sequentially equal to 13858, 520 and 6103 million Tomans That should use increasing the productivity and irrigation efficiency utilizing ways such as farm tubing- that has lower cost and risk in relation to rain irrigation for farmers.