Prediction of the risk factors for Covid-19 infection in progression to Severe Disease in Bu-Ali Sina Hospital, Qazvin, Iran

  According to the widespread epidemic of the COVID-19 around the world and the irreparable damage in all aspects of human life, surveying coping methods with this epidemic is one of the research priorities of societies. The aim of this study was to find the factors that predict the severity of the disease and the resulting death.

This descriptive-analytical study was performed on patients with COVID19 admitted to Bu-Ali Sina hospital in Qazvin in March 2020. Epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics of patients was collected. Data were analyzed by independent t-test and Mann-Whitney U test (for normally and non-normally distributed quantitative variables, respectively) and chi-squared (for qualitative variables) on SPSS version 22. P<0.05 was considered significant.

The study population included 119 admitted COVID-19 patients. 94 patients recovered and 25 patients died. The deceased patients were significantly older than recovered patients (P=0.0007).  The frequency of smoking in our study was 5.4% of patients. The deceased patients had higher lymphopenia (P=0.015), neutrophil number (P=0.009), blood urea nitrogen (P=0.012) and creatinine (P=0.032) were significantly higher and blood oxygen saturation (P=0.001) was significantly lower in deceased patients than those who recovered.

Percentages of smokers in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 disease was significantly lower than general population. If COVID-19 patients are in the high-risk group, including older people having sever hypoxia, lymphopenia, neutrophilia, impaired renal function and sever lung involvement in CT scan should be examined with extra care due to the increased chance of death in these patients.