An Analysis of Turkiye's Water Policy Towards Iran and Iraq, Using the Hypothetica and Swain Models

Authoritarian policies that prioritize state power often hinder the development of constructive international relationships, fueling tensions and reducing opportunities for cooperation. This is particularly evident in the Middle East, where countries in the Tigris and Euphrates river basins are deeply affected. The region's unique geopolitical and hydropolitical context makes it especially vulnerable to such conflicts. In recent years, relations between Iran, Turkiye, and Iraq have grown increasingly complex due to various factors, including dam construction, persistent droughts, and Turkiye's authoritarian policies. These elements have heightened sensitivities in their relations, compounding the challenges of their already tumultuous history.In such a complex environment, it becomes increasingly crucial to accurately understand and thoroughly analyze the ongoing regional processes. Additionally, forecasting future trends is critical for preventing international crises. A detailed examination of the impact of dam construction on the flow of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, coupled with an assessment of the consequences of recurring droughts on the region's water resources, is essential. Analyzing the water policies of key regional players, particularly Turkiye, can also further enhance our understanding of the current situation and inform more effective responses.Furthermore, exploring how these policies affect relations between neighboring countries can provide valuable insights. Through such studies, it is possible to propose solutions that promote more effective cooperation in water resource management. This could involve sharing information, creating joint mechanisms for managing water resources, and developing collaborative projects focused on sustainable usage. Ultimately, prioritizing cooperation over competition and hostility can foster a more constructive environment for addressing regional challenges. Achieving this, however, requires a shift in attitudes and broader policies among regional countries, but it can safeguard the long-term interests of all parties involved.

Research methods generally fall into three categories: quantitative, qualitative, and mixed (a combination of both). This study employs a descriptive-analytical approach to assess and interpret the current situation. In the descriptive phase, data is gathered through library research, while the analytical one applies a deductive method, utilizing Peter Haggett’s Hypothetica model and Ashok Swain model for data analysis. In the quantitative section, Food-Energy-Water (FEW) indicators are employed to demonstrate and derive key concepts.The research process involves gathering information, conducting a thorough analysis of the collected data, and identifying patterns based on the assumptions of the two models. The final step is to pinpoint and articulate the challenges that need to be addressed to enhance the current situation. To clearly and comprehensively present the research findings, diagramming software is used to infer and illustrate the conceptual model. This model visually represents the relations and connections among various research elements. This integrated approach enables a deep, multifaceted examination of the topic and leads to a well-rounded and actionable analysis.This mixed-method approach, which combines descriptive-analytical techniques with quantitative analysis using FEW indicators, offers a strong foundation for the study. It facilitates a thorough examination of the current situation while also enabling a data-driven analysis of trends and patterns. By integrating the Hypothetica and Swin models into the analytical process, the study gains a deeper interpretation of the data, revealing insights that might be overlooked when using a single methodological approach.By clearly mentioning the existing challenges, this research goes beyond merely describing the current state—it also lays the groundwork for potential solutions and improvements. This forward-thinking approach significantly enhances the study's practical relevance, making it valuable for policymakers and stakeholders alike. The comprehensive methodology, which seamlessly integrates qualitative and quantitative approaches and is further supported by visual modeling, allows for a detailed and nuanced exploration of the topic. As a result, the research not only provides valuable insights but also establishes a strong foundation for future studies and practical applications.

Authoritarian or power-centric policies focus on consolidating and expanding governmental authority, both within a nation and in its foreign relations. However, an excessive reliance on this approach can hinder constructive international engagement, often leading to tensions and even potential crises. The Middle East, particularly the Tigris and Euphrates river basins encompassing Iran, Turkiye, and Iraq, is especially vulnerable due to its unique geostrategic importance and the complex interplay of regional dynamics.The findings reveal that Turkiye's unilateral and authoritarian management of water resources - primarily through large-scale dam construction and hydropower projects designed to enhance agricultural development - has deepened regional disparities and heightened tensions. Iraq's geographical disadvantages, combined with its limited financial and technological resources, have left it ill-equipped to effectively counter Turkiye's actions. The advanced dam projects in Turkiye, along with similar initiatives in Iran, have severely affected Iraq's water resources, exacerbating water scarcity and contributing to environmental degradation.Turkiye's centralized and dominant approach to dam construction has worsened the region's water supply and demand imbalance. At the same time, internal conflicts and divergent water priorities between the Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government hinder a cohesive response to regional water disputes, underscoring significant organizational weaknesses within Iraq.As Turkiye's influence expands, Iraq's vulnerabilities become increasingly evident, largely due to its central authority deficiencies and organizational weaknesses. Iraq faces significant consequences, including environmental degradation and threats to human life. However,Turkiye is also affected by its actions, such as diverting water from the Tigris and Euphrates, which disrupt Kurdish regions in Iraq and risk fueling unrest and instability.The Swain model demonstrates that population growth, driven by the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) nexus, leads to resource depletion and heightened tensions. This growth further intensifies water scarcity and regional instability. As a result, population growth strategies centered around these components become increasingly costly and demand a fundamental reassessment by the countries involved.An analysis of the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) components shows that Turkiye holds a relatively stronger position compared to Iran and Iraq, though this advantage may not be sustainable in the long run. However, with its abundant water reserves and extensive dam infrastructure, Turkiye is not on the verge of a water crisis. Iran, although better off than Iraq in terms of water resources, still confronts considerable challenges. Iraq, in the most vulnerable position, faces severe threats to its water supply, underscoring the serious security and environmental implications for the country.

Active and close cooperation between Iraq and Iran in managing water resources is crucial. This partnership can foster the creation of joint programs and strategies for water management, helping to maintain a balanced approach to resource usage while easing regional tensions. Through such collaboration, both countries can improve water security in the region by addressing risks and ensuring that the water needs of affected communities are met effectively.At large, addressing barriers and challenges to sustainable and equitable water management in the region requires a multifaceted approach: 1) Strengthened regional cooperation; 2) Adoption of water-saving technologies; and 3) International interventions and mediation. By implementing these strategies collectively, the region can move toward more sustainable water management practices and reduce tensions in this geopolitically sensitive area.