فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی ایران
سال پنجاه و سوم شماره 4 (زمستان 1401)

Rainwater harvesting is an effective method for the utilization of surface water resources in different regions. Since the impervious surfaces have noticeable potential of rainwater harvesting, designing and planning in order to collecting of rainwater is a suitable solution for adapting of water shortage in many places.In this study, in order to achieve the research objectives in various sections related to runoff and food surveying in the selected area, several methods will be used, each of which has its own stages. In order to calculate runoff, the average annual rainfall information in the study area was taken from Shahrekord synoptic station. Then, according to the announced relationships, we estimate the amount of runoff in the basin. To analyze the water requirement of crops and horticultural products using the method proposed by the Journal of the World Food Organization (FAO) using statistics and meteorological information and field studies related to the crop calendar and different stages of plant growth, evaporation parameters and potential transpiration of the plant standard level (ETO) Which is the evaporative power of air is estimated and then introduced by introducing the plant coefficient (Kc) according to the type of plant, stage and length of growth period and its effect on (ETO), plant evapotranspiration (ETc). The results of data analysis related to optimal water consumption, increasing crop and horticultural cultivation (studied: Noabad village, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari) based on the objectives and research questions have been presented and discussed. First, the amount of runoff from rainfall in the study area was calculated. In the next section, the water needs of the dominant agricultural and horticultural products in the village were calculated. Depending on the amount of runoff from rainfall and the water requirement of each product, it can be used to cultivate more crops using the resulting runoff for optimal water use.With 3/243486 cubic meters. Then, according to the calculations of runoff and water requirement of the plants in the study area, practical scenarios are presented in this area.

Investigating the behavior of market players in pricing higher than the competitive level determines the bargaining power of the higher economic profits and leads to their market power. This is especially important for policymakers in terms of equity pricing in agricultural pricing policies. Fruit consumption plays an important role in diet variability and prevention of chronic diseases. Given the significant share of these products in horticultural production on the one hand and their unique role in providing household food security on the other, it is necessary to analyze the market power of supply chain actors. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the behavior of fruit market players in each of the supply chains using weekly data during the period 2012-2017 in Tehran. The findings showed that the wholesale market power of all products except apple and watermelon was higher than the retailer and dominated the other levels throughout the entire marketing chain. The results also showed competitive behavior in the market for all fruits except oranges, and finally, market players reacted differently to relative price changes at different levels of the supply chain. Therefore, it is recommended that planners try to modify the behavior of market players against relative price changes at different levels of the supply chain.

One of the strategies for diversification of livelihood in nomad society has been the settlement of nomads and the establishment of permanent nomad settlements while, its impact has not yet been accurately assessed on the sustainable livelihood of nomad housholds. This research aimed to investigate the impact of nomads’ settlement on sustainable livelihoods in Semirom County. The research design was semi-experiment and carried out based on survey strategy. The target population of study included two groups of nomadic tribes (N=4845) and settled nomads (N=350). Through Cochran formula 150 households from each group were selected as research samples. The sample was selected by stratified appropriate sampling technique within 2 settlement sites and 5 nomad tribes. Results showed that natural and financial capitals and total assets were lesser than average and in inappropriate position among both nomads groups. Results of Independent t-test indicated that there are significant difference between two groups of households regarding physical, natural, financial capital and total assets. Assessing vulnerable trends indicated that some items such increased employment opportunities, enhanced income and family purchase power have more importance to decrease vulnerability among nomad households. While some items such increased in construction and development, enhanced local security and increased family solidarity and union have more importance to decrease vulnerability among settled households. Moreover items such inflation and increased prices and variation in meat price have more importance to increase vulnerability among two group of households.

In an ever-changing environment where major threats and opportunities arise from intense competition, ongoing biodiversity, competitiveness, and the bargaining power of intermediaries, survival in agriculture depends on performance, flexibility, and adaptability. It depends on competitive strategies and marketing innovation practices. The type of research was applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-correlational in terms of the nature of the method. The statistical population of this research is the managers, experts and employees of dairy companies. Validity was assessed using confirmatory factor analysis and reliability was assessed by Cronbach's alpha. Structural equation modeling will be used to analyze the hypotheses. Data were analyzed using SPS software and Smart PLS software. Based on the research findings, competitive agricultural marketing strategy has a positive and significant effect on value chain development. The findings of this study can lead to the movement of companies producing lentil products to pay more attention to value chain development.

Food security is one of the important factors that provides personal, family and social health of society and it is a fundamental need for the development of human kind. Although rural areas are a main source of food production, but they still suffer from greater food insecurity than urban society. Many factors affect food security, individual and familial characteristics are one of the most essential factors. Therefore, the main purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of these factors on food security. The study area was Shavoor district. A total of 300 rural households were included in the study. The samples were chosen using a stratified random sampling procedure, and the data was analyzed using logistic regression. Only approximately 62 percent of households have adequate food security, according to the findings. The variables of the head of the household's level of education, age, having a male child, having an active person in the family, having a person working in the non-agricultural sector, and also having a person with underlying disease on household food security have a statistically significant effect among the individual and family characteristics studied. Given that this set of variables can improve for roughly 30% of the ability to predict the household food security, therefore, managing and improving the situation of rural household food security requires consideration of them along with other variables.

Entrepreneurship and entrepreneurs are important factors in the development of the country and therefore, it is necessary that this subject area be given special attention by researchers, planners, and policy makers. The purpose of this study is to answer the question of whether the level of entrepreneurial knowledge, attitude and intention of students has changed compared to previous years or not; and whether the impact of individual and educational factors on students' entrepreneurial knowledge, attitudes and intentions has changed over the time. The study used repeated cross-sectional design. The statistical population consisted of senior students at the College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Tehran University in the academic year 2013-14 (group A) and 2019-20 (group B). 120 students from group A and 98 students from group B were selected. The main instrument for data collection was questionnaire. The validity and reliability of the questionnaire were confirmed by views of professors and experts and Cronbach's alpha (knowledge= .82, attitude= .91, intention= .88). Data were analyzed using SPSS software. Findings showed that the level of entrepreneurial knowledge, attitude and intention of students has changed compared to previous years and has improved significantly. Findings indicated the impact of entrepreneurship courses, entrepreneurial experience, and entrepreneurial family on entrepreneurial knowledge, attitude and intention of agricultural students. In addition, there were positive and significant relationships between students' entrepreneurship knowledge and entrepreneurship attitude with entrepreneurial intention. Totally, the results show a promising and motivating issue that, consequently, by improving entrepreneurship rules and regulations and business ease indicators, we can see the transformation of entrepreneurial intentions into entrepreneurial activity.

Due to the increasing competition of US America with Iran in the pistachio’s global market, US share in global exports is increased and replaces the Iran's share. On the other hand, in the oligopoly market structure, changes in global product prices strongly depends on a competitor that holds a major share of the global market. To predict the risk and price of the product using stochastic differential equations, it is necessary to estimate the statistical parameters of the price. According to the market trend and the change in the global pistachio market, there is no sufficient historical data in the new market approach. In this paper, the statistical parameters are estimated from a similar product’s price series in the similar world market to predict the price of the Iran’s pistachio in the global market using the geometric Brownian motion (GBM). Our investigations in the 1992-2018 period, revealed that the statistical parameters of almond export price can perform a framework for predicting the export price of pistachio and its corresponding risk in a quasi-Monopoly market. Based on our experimental results, the performance of the GBM has been improved to Theil’s index of 0.05 using the almond price series in the new market approach. Furthermore, according to the Coppock index and value at risk measures, the price fluctuation of Iran’s pistachio will be decreased in 2019-2023, and the minimum price of pistachios in 2023 will be 4461 dollars per ton at 99.9% confidence level.

With the intensification of the water crisis in the world, it has become necessary to pay attention to the concept of virtual water and water footprint in agricultural planning and policy-making, especially in countries located in arid and semi-arid regions. The agricultural sector in Iran, as the largest water consumer, will require serious attention to the concepts of virtual water and water footprint. The aim of this study was to reduce the water footprint of optimal patterns under the simultaneous goals of profit and risk compared to current cropping patterns. Also, consequences for not implementing the optimal cropping model in terms of benefits and water footprints were investigated. For this purpose, data of production cost, cultivated area and crops production of Varamin region has been used for the crop year 2017-2018. Also, the research method in this study was to estimate water footprint indices and goal programming models. The results of this study showed that in the equilibrium patterns of profit and risk, the net profit of farmers will increase by 10.8% and at the same time, the water footprint will decrease by an average of 5.5%. In fact, the footprint of blue, green and gray water in the current model of cultivation is equivalent to 52.45, 2.79 and 17.56 million cubic meters, respectively, and in the optimal model of profit and risk balance, it is equivalent to 51.60, 2.24 and 96, respectively. It was estimated to be 14 million cubic meters. Finally, the total water footprint in the two models was estimated to be 72.81 and 68.81 million cubic meters, respectively. Considering only 2% water consumption for the total need of industry and mining and saving 5.5% in water footprint in the country, by implementing the optimal model of profit and risk balance in the agricultural sector, in addition to earn more profit by farmers, more water can be saved than the industry's need. This amount of savings can be done by the government at no cost, and in fact, more benefits and less risk will encourage farmers to follow this pattern.

Since the main goal of the research was to explore the factors determining farmers’ behavior towards the use of chemical fertilizers, the developed Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and Value-Belief-Norm theory (VBN) was employed as a predicting theory to accomplish this goal. The 375 potato farmers of 30 villages were selected as samples (N=14200). Data were collected by a questionnaire and help of interview. Statistical calculations were performed by the SmartPLS (version3) and SPSS (version22) software packages. The results of using (TPB) show that behavioral intention is reinforced by three variables of behavioral attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control so that it has a positive and significant relationship with them. Also, the results of using (VBN) show that the components of this theory have a positive and significant relationship with behavior. The results using (TPB) revealed that the farmer's intention has a significant and positive relationship with behavioral beliefs mediated by behavioral attitude, with normative beliefs mediated by subjective norms, and with controlled beliefs mediated by perceived behavioral control. In VBN theory, the results showed that the value variable mediated by belief and norm have a positive and significant relationship with farmers' behavior. In other words, the variables in both theories well explain the behavior of farmers in the application of chemical fertilizers. In comparision 51 percent of farmers' behavior in the TPB theory can be described through the variables of the model, but 57 percent in the VBN model.

Saffron, as the most expensive agricultural and medicinal product in the world, has a special place in buying and selling related to the Iranian agricultural commodity bourse. The saffron commodity bourse, like any other market, has always faced limitations and structural problems, and most of these problems are related to its price fluctuations. Price forecasting using appropriate models can be a great help in reducing the price risk of futures market of saffron. The main question is that in in confronting with various price forecasting methods, which methods should be chosen to forecast the future price of saffron? The purpose of this study is to design the most appropriate hybrid model for forecasting the future price of Negin saffron in the agricultural commodity bourse, which consists of a set of nonlinear models of genetic algorithm, deep neural network, random forest, support vector machine and Monte Carlo method. In this hybrid model, genetic algorithm is used to determine the optimal lag of price time series, deep neural network, random forest model and support vector machine are used to forecast the price time series, and Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the most probable price probability. The results of this study showed that the forecasting accuracy of the hybrid model of "Genetic Algorithm-Deep Neural Network-Monte Carlo" is higher than the two models of "Genetic Algorithm-Random Forest-Monte Carlo" and "Genetic Algorithm-Support Vector Machine -Monte Carlo". Therefore, using a deep neural network and calculating the most probable price probability by the Monte Carlo method, provide the most accurate saffron price prediction with a high degree of reliability and minimal risk. Thus, it is suggested that that the management of the commodity bourse, stock market participants and researchers can use the advantages of this proposed model in forecasting the price of agricultural products.

The key to the success of regional development policy and endogenous development is to emphasize the specific characteristics of the target region, using the potential of human resources, institutions and local physical resources. This study aims to determine the actual and potential sub-sectors for agricultural development planning in Khorasan Razavi province, and aims to provide a correct understanding of the capabilities and restrictions of the provincial cities in each agricultural sub-sectors. For this purpose, analytical models of the spatial coefficient in the spatial economy have been used to measure the actual and potential local advantages of the cities in order to plan the development of the agricultural sector of Khorasan Razavi Province and the data from 2012 to 2017 extracted from the statistical yearbooks of the agricultural jihad of Khorasan Razavi Province. Based on the results of the static spatial coefficient analysis in Khorasan Razavi province, livestock and fisheries sub-sectors are considered basic. Also, the three sub-sectors of horticulture, fisheries and livestock have high development potential in the province. Although there is no need to worry about the status of horticultural and fisheries sub-sectors in Khorasan Razavi province, the declining share of the livestock sub-sector in the added value of the agricultural sector of the province as well as the decrease in the number of advantageous cities, especially in the production of red meat, requires the special attention of policy makers towards this sub-sector. Conducting such studies can be effective in future planning for the continuous production of agricultural products both at the provincial and national levels. Improving investment security in this sub-sector at advantageous points in order to increase investment beyond compensating the depreciation of existing investments can be considered as one of the main solutions.

Contingent valuation is one of the standard methods is utilized to estimate the value of non-market goods and services. Recently, this method is used in Iran frequently. Much more studies were designed using DBDC but analyzing their data was done using logit model that is suitable for analyzing SBDC data. Also, there are some studies designed by SBDC and analyzed using logit model. The main purpose of using DBDC is to increase statistical efficiency of the estimates, but efficiency does not increase when logit model is used for its data analysis. The main goal of this paper is to analyze SBDC data using logit model and DBDC data using seemingly unrelated bivariate probit regression (SURBP) and compare statistical efficiency of these estimates. The results showed that the variance of the coefficients of all variables in the SURBP model is less than the logit model. Also, the amount of willingness to pay in SBDC and DBDC methods was estimated 6524 and 6437 Rials, respectively; and the estimated confidence interval of the willingness to pay in the DBDC method is less than the SBDC. It is suggested that if the DBDC elicitation method is used to estimate the willingness to pay, the data be analyzed using the SURBP model.

The small size and dispersion of the land and the continuation of fragmentation due to reasons such as the inheritance law are issues that have become widespread since the forties and have been one of the main problems of the agricultural sector to be small and scattered over the past 40 years. Agricultural corporations have succeeded in some areas as a type of land use planning system to assist in land consolidation, and in some cases failed. The main purpose of this research was to identify the weaknesses, strengths, threats and opportunities of establishing agricultural corporations, ranking the problems and obstacles faced by these companies and prioritizing their development strategies in South Khorasan Province. In order to achieve the research goals using quantitative and qualitative method, after analyzing the SWOT analysis approach, prioritizing the challenges and development strategies of agricultural corporations. Given the score of internal factors (points of strengths and weaknesses) and external factors (points of opportunity and threat) that were 2.43 and 2.51 respectively, An appropriate strategy for improving the efficiency of Agricultural corporations, an appropriate strategy, is to review long-term corporate plans based on overcoming internal weaknesses by relying on the use of external opportunities. The most important weaknesses in this matrix, given the advantages offered, are inappropriate location of crop companies that need to be considered when setting up these companies. Agricultural corporations need to focus on aspects of innovation through thought capital while focusing on processable products.

Recently, water governance has become important due to the increasing complexities associated with water management. So that it is widely acknowledged that the world water crisis is more a crisis of governance than of water scarcity. In recent decades adopting the ‘Water Independence of Provinces’ law has created many social, environmental, economic and managerial crises in the Zayandeh-Rud basin and its two sub-basins (Isfahan and Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari) which have resulted in conflicts between the sub-basin stakeholders. The current applied study was qualitative regarding its methodology and followed a case study approach. The statistical population of the study included managers and senior experts of water governance in two sub-basins (Isfahan and Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari) and finally nine managers and experts in Isfahan sub-basin, four cases in extra-basin level, and six cases in Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari sub-basin were selected as the sample population by means of snowball sampling method till theoretical saturation. Data collection was done by structured questionnaire and interview protocol. Using fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), the empirical analysis of water governance systems in two sub-basins showed that a set of factors associated with low performance regarding climate change adaptation. Regarding performance aspect, water governance in Zayandeh-Rud basin and its two sub-basins were Centralized Rent-seeking and Centralized Coordinated, respectively. This means that both basin and sub-basins have low performance regarding climate change adaptation and ability to resilience and adaptation challenges. The reason for the difference in the type of water governance performance at the level of the Zayandeh-Rud basin and its sub-basins was the poor coordination between water related organizations in sub-basins.

One of the factors that play a key role in achieving the goal of rapid and sustained economic growth is the expansion of the financial sector. Therefore, the development and expansion of financial markets in the agricultural sector of these countries is of particular importance. Also, one of the macroeconomic goals of countries is to create the conditions necessary to promote sustainable and sustainable economic growth. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the impact of financial expansion and economic freedom on the growth of selected agricultural products in the Middle East countries with emphasis on Iran during the period 2016-2017. The method used in this study is fixed effects method based on the results of Hausman country test. The results showed that financial expansion, economic freedom, physical capital and labor force in agricultural sector had positive and significant effects on growth with coefficients of 0.39, 0.42, 0.31 and 0.12, respectively. The agricultural products are in the Middle East and Iran. Therefore, it is suggested that countries in the Middle East, and in particular Iran, can grow further in the agricultural sector by opening the door to trade by removing tariff barriers and trade restrictions.