فهرست مطالب ناصر بیات

The review of the research projects that have explored the evaluation and mapping of urban security vulnerability shows that this issue has various dimensions and is affected by spatial, social, and economic factors and these dimensions are determined through factors such as land use combination, street connectivity, infrastructure and demographic and social data.

In this research, after identifying the indicators related to the topic, the data related to them were collected at the level of localities in 22 districts of Tehran. Then it was used through the F'ANP method, which is a multi-criteria evaluation method for building composite indices.

The results of this research, which is the result of the combination of 14 indicators in 354 neighborhoods of Tehran, show that five main components can be identified in the construction of the urban security vulnerability composite index, which are: risk and threat level (at risk), economic activity density, total unemployment composition, traffic nodes, and dependent population.

The spatial distribution of these components at the level of neighborhoods in Tehran shows that the components of risk/threat level and traffic nodes have a north-central distribution. The components of economic activity density, the composition of total unemployment, and the dependent population are cluster components. In total, the highest values of urban security vulnerability were in central areas 11 and 12 and northern area 1 of Tehran, and the lowest values were related to northeastern areas 3 and 4 of Tehran.

The current research was carried out with the aim of identifying the cultural-police approaches effective on the criminalization of theft. Thematic analysis has been used in this research. The statistical population of the present study were detectives and crime detection specialists, among whom 14 people were selected as a statistical sample using a targeted criterion approach and theoretical saturation criterion. The data collection tool was a semi-structured interview, which was used to determine its reliability and validity using the four criteria of credibility, transferability, verifiability and reliability. The data was also analyzed in the form of thematic analysis. The findings showed; The cultural-police approaches effective on the criminalization of theft include 76 basic concepts, 10 organizing concepts and 2 inclusive concepts. Therefore, the first inclusive concept means extra-organizational approaches including 4 organizing concepts; The promotion of information exchange between other organizations and the police is the legal obligation of organizations to provide information to the police, the judicial branch's information support from the police, and the promotion of the video surveillance support of other organizations and departments from the police. Also, intra-organizational approaches include 6 organizing concepts, which are; Facilitating access to databases, promoting skill enhancement and specialized training of employees, skills in information analysis, information support, allocation of financial resources in the purchase of information and social cultural solutions effective in crime detection.

A B S T R A C TThe effective role of the police in creating order and security is one of the most important variables affecting tourists' satisfaction. The current research aims to identify ways to improve pilgrims' satisfaction with police management services in Mashhad. The research is applied in terms of purpose and mixed in nature. The participants were selected from three groups, including police experts, tourism specialists, trustees, and those involved in the affairs of tourist accommodation places and service, commercial and hospitality centers. The data of the qualitative stage were obtained from 13 semi-structured interviews and were analyzed using a qualitative content analysis approach. The results of the findings of this stage became the basis for the design of the questionnaire for the Delphi survey. The number of participants in the Delphi survey was 40. The calculation of Kendall's consensus coefficient was based on the consensus in the survey stages. This value is between 0 and 1; the closer the calculated number is to 1, the higher the degree of agreement and consensus. In the second stage of the Delphi survey phase, this value was higher than the acceptable limit (0.5) in all dimensions, and therefore, the opinion polling process was stopped. So, the values of Kendall's consensus coefficient about improving the satisfaction of pilgrims with the police by three dimensions, including urban traffic and transportation, tourist accommodation places, and service, commercial and hospitality centers, are respectively 0.72, 0.71, and 0.66. The results of this research include practical approaches to improve religious tourists' satisfaction with police services in Mashhad Extended AbstractIntroductionHowever, suppose the law enforcement management performs well by adopting effective measures and methods in preventing, confronting, and controlling violations, crimes, and violations. In that case, it can provide a reliable image of the public image of Mashhad as a destination by improving the satisfaction of religious tourists (pilgrims). Draw the main religious tourism in the country, the region, and even the Islamic world in the minds of tourists. After Tehran, Mashhad is considered Iran's largest metropolis and spiritual capital, and its urban population is increasing every year. Every year, millions of eager pilgrims from all over the country and other Islamic countries visit Mashhad to visit the royal court of Hazrat Samen-Al-Hajj. According to the statistics provided by the Director-General of the Pilgrim Welfare Affairs Office of Khorasan Razavi Governorate in 2018, more than 28 million and 590 thousand pilgrims (religious tourists) visited the holy shrine of Imam Reza (AS), of which more than 3.5 million; it consists of foreign pilgrims (mostly from Arabic-speaking countries such as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Yemen, and Urdu-speaking countries from India and Pakistan, as well as Turkey and Azerbaijan). Mashhad also has a particular position in the country due to its geographical, religious, and cultural conditions. It is important to note that over 30 million pilgrims visit the city of Mashhad annually, which is three times the city's population of 3.5 million. Therefore, it is crucial to effectively manage the reception and satisfaction of these religious tourists, especially on such a large scale. Thus, the present study emphasizes increasing the satisfaction of Imam Reza (AS) pilgrims in Mashhad, and the main issue of the research is religious tourism and law enforcement management from the point of view of experts. MethodologyThe present study is mixed research (qualitative-quantitative) in terms of practical purpose and the nature of the data. Tourism and experts in the field of research were identified by the method of "improbable and targeted sampling," and an interview was conducted. For this study, four groups of participants were selected, including police experts, religious tourism specialists, individuals in charge of tourism accommodation and service centers, and those in the business and hospitality industry. Due to the heterogeneity of the groups, initial estimates were made based on every 10 participants, resulting in 40 Delphi panel members. Results and discussionIn the present study, sub-questions were developed according to the purpose of the research. These questions are ways to improve the satisfaction of pilgrims from law enforcement services in Mashhad in three main categories; "urban traffic and transportation," "tourist accommodation," and "service centers." "Commerce and Hospitality." A questionnaire to examine these three categories was used to answer the research sub-questions. Answers to some of the research questions were possible by examining descriptive statistics such as frequency/percentage, mean, and standard deviation of the answers given, and answers to some other questions were possible by the inferential analysis of the collected data by calculating the Kendall coordination coefficient and average categories. According to the results, the Kendall agreement's value for 7 sub-categories related to "urban traffic and transportation in Mashhad" increased from 0.451 in the first round of the Delphi survey to 0.716 in the second round. The value of the Kendall agreement coefficient for 12 sub-categories related to "tourist accommodation places in Mashhad" increased from 0.435 in the first round of the Delphi survey to 0.711 in the second round. The value of the Kendall agreement coefficient for 11 sub-categories related to "service, commercial, and hospitality centers in Mashhad" increased from 0.387 in the first round of the Delphi survey to 0.657 in the second round. ConclusionDue to reaching an acceptable consensus among the members participating in the Delphi survey regarding how to improve the pilgrims' satisfaction with the law enforcement management services in Mashhad, the three main categories of the Delphi survey were completed. Based on the research findings, it is suggested that based on the results, in the discussion of traffic and urban transportation in the holy city of Mashhad, creating one-way routes to the holy shrine of Razavi is the priority in promoting pilgrims' satisfaction, so it is necessary in order to facilitate the passage of pilgrims to the holy shrine, traffic plans around the holy shrine of Razavi have been reviewed, and one-way traffic routes have been created. Also, since in the component related to law enforcement management services in the discussion of traffic and urban transportation in Mashhad, the parking in commercial areas is one of the most critical issues and it seems that parking the car in a suitable place is one of the concerns have been raised. The lack of parking is evident, especially in commercial areas in Mashhad, so it is suggested that appropriate parking lots be constructed around commercial areas. FundingThere is no funding support. Authors’ ContributionAll of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work. Conflict of InterestAuthors declared no conflict of interest. AcknowledgmentsWe are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.

Today, with the increasing complexity of organizations and the increase in unethical behavior and organizational misconduct, the attention of managers and researchers has been directed to the topic of organizational ethics. Therefore, the misbehavior of employees in the field of police mission is associated with more sensitivity and their effectiveness in some missions has been challenged. With this approach, the purpose of the present research is meta-analysis of the prevention of misconduct of police officers of different countries in the execution of the mission.

The current research was conducted with a qualitative approach and using the meta-analysis method of studies conducted in the police of a number of countries. The statistical population of the research includes all researches conducted mostly abroad from 2017 to 2022 on the topic of "Misbehavior of Police Officers", which finally after refining, 11 researches were selected and analyzed.

The findings of the research showed that a total of 31 variables related to American police misconduct were investigated. These variables were categorized into two groups of intra-organizational misconduct and extra-organizational misconduct. Among the extra-organizational factors, the variables of violation of citizenship rights and verbal violence are the most frequent with 81.8% (8 cases), and among the extra-organizational factors, the indiscipline variable is the most frequent with 63.7% (7 cases).

The results of the meta-analysis showed that the effect size of violence among other patterns of police misconduct is equal to 55% and is at the high level, and the effect size of violation of civil rights is 49% and is at the average level

According to the inherent mission of the police in ensuring order and security, prevention and confrontation of crimes related to the tourism industry, including the control of unauthorized activities and services in the tourism sector and in general to create security and a sense of security in spaces Tourism is known as one of the basic necessities in this field.

The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of implementation method. The statistical population is all domestic and foreign tourists who have traveled to Shiraz metropolis in a period of one year from the beginning of September 2016 to the beginning of September 1998. Using Cochran's formula,

If the feeling of security and safety factor of tourists in the tourist destination increases, self-actualization or sustainable development of tourism will be created. In this study, the researcher sought to investigate whether the measures of law enforcement management have a positive and significant effect on the satisfaction of tourists in the metropolis of Shiraz? Finally, the researcher concluded that the measures of law enforcement management have a positive and significant effect on the satisfaction of tourists in the metropolis of Shiraz.

The results showed that the relationship between the dimensions of law enforcement management and tourist satisfaction has been confirmed and showed that the country's police force can use the dimensions of law enforcement management and create a standard based on these dimensions as a practical tool to increase tourist satisfaction.

Spatial analysis of such crimes can provide a clear geographical perspective for planning and policing management in the protection territoriesof urban areas. The main goal of the current research is the spatial analysis of theft crimes in Esfarayen city.

This inqury in terms of purpose, is of the type of applied research, and in terms of methodological approach, it is based on description and spatial analysis. The area under study is the city of Esfarayen, located in North Khorasan province. The data used includes 945 cases of theft crimes in a one-year period, from 21-3-2021 to 3-3-2022, which were received from the police force command of Esfarayen city. Excel and ArcGIS software were used for data analysis.

Most of the shop thefts are related to the central core of the city (ImamKhomeini and Motahari Streets). In terms of car theft, the most thefts in the central core of the city are (Taleghani, ImamReza, ImamKhomeini, Motahari, Farumandi, Moalem, and Valiasr streets). Important thefts Most of the houses happened in more prosperous neighborhoods and the theft of private places occurred on ImamKhomeini, Motahari, SheikhAzari, the beginning of ValiAsr and the beginning of ImamReza streets, and the theft of car accessories occurred on ImamKhomeini-ImamReza-Talqani-Moalem and Motahari streets.

according to the findings, the spatial patterns of the formation of theft hot spots in the city of Esfarayen are affected by the decline of economic indicators, social and cultural problems, poverty, Drugs addiction, divorce, unemployment and urban marginalization.

The management of ways to prevent the destruction of homes is the second approach to reducing unwanted effects and maximizing the establishment of rest house houses. The issue of this research emphasizes the prevention of theft of villa-recreation homes in Urumia, and in this regard, the identification and analysis of the most important preventive measures from the start in the focal purpose.

The present study is applied in terms of its purpose and is of a mixed type (qualitative-quantitative) methodological process. The statistical community at the quantitative stage of a set of experts and specialists in the field of law enforcement, security specialists, local managers and second homeowners in Urmia Is. Using a targeted sampling method, 40 people were used to complete the Delphi panel members. The data of the questionnaire were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Delphi and Friedman tests, and Kendal's agreement coefficient.

Based on the findings of the qualitative stage, 13 statements were identified as situational prevention approaches and 7 propositions as situational prevention approaches. The findings of the data show that in the precautionary aspect of targeting police patrols and strengthening them during the night, especially in cold months, when the owners of the villa houses are less present, they have the highest and the observance of security considerations in locating Housewives have the lowest average, and in the area of social prevention, engage the local population in introducing the most suspected and known people to the police, and to educate and promote preventive methods of villagers' theft to the people with the lowest average for the respondents.

The results of the research show that the internal challenges of law enforcement, human factors,

Environmental conditions are known to be one of the most important influencing factors in the field of border Units  operational readiness. This research was done with the aim of representing the commanders' living experience of the role of environmental conditions in the operational readiness of Atrak border regiment units.

In terms of its objectives, the current study is of an applied research type and in terms of its nature, it is a qualitative study of the phenomenological type. The data collection tool is a semi-structured interview. The research data is obtained from 31 semi-structured interviews with commanders who have service experience in the geographical area of Atrak Border Regiment. The participants were selected by purposive sampling.

The findings show the positive and negative roles of environmental conditions in the operational readiness of employees in Atrak Border Regiment. In short, in terms of the natural environment, the geomorphological characteristics of the region are suitable platforms for positive role-playing, and the climate characteristics and environmental limitations have a limiting and negative role. Also, in terms of the human environment, the low level of border tensions, the increase of technological and legal capacities, and the convergence of the population have a positive and facilitating role. And institutional and managerial inefficiencies, problems and limitations of organizational resources, and vulnerability from the surrounding environment have a negative role.

The results of the research reveal the necessity of paying attention to the environmental conditions in the preparation of the protection areas of the border units. So that the fair distribution of resources, facilities, and opportunities is provided fairly and in this way the ability to overcome environmental limitations is increased, and on the other hand it is possible to make maximum use of environmental capacities in the mission of border units.

Annually, 35.1 million people worldwide fall victim to road accidents, and evidence indicates that this issue is one of the top five causes of death and physical disability in Iran. Therefore, the main goal of this research is to identify and analyze the geographical characteristics of accident hotspots on main roads in Iran from a managerial perspective. This research is applied in terms of objectives, quantitative in nature, and based on spatial analysis in terms of data. The statistical population of the study includes 1586 accident hotspots on main roads in Iran, which were studied using a census method and analyzed using ArcGIS software. Out of the total accident hot spots on Iranian roads, 1586 points were categorized as accident hotspots. Qazvin, North Khorasan, and Mazandaran provinces have the highest frequency of accident-prone points with 366, 337, and 219 points, respectively. On the other hand, Hormozgan, Ilam, and Markazi provinces have the lowest frequency of accident-prone points with 24, 26, and 32 points, respectively. Fars, Khuzestan, Gilan, and North Khorasan provinces have the highest frequency in terms of the number of accident-prone points, with 125, 120, 97, and 96 points, respectively. Furthermore, Ardabil, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, and Markazi provinces have the lowest frequency in terms of the number of accident-prone points with 6, 12, and 13 points, respectively. Topography, climate, population density, quantity and quality of transportation infrastructure, geographical location, tourism receptivity, geographical adjacency to densely populated centers, and placement in transit routes are among the prominent factors influencing the creation of accident hotspots. However, human-cultural factors, alongside technical issues in transportation, still play a decisive role as the two main variables in determining the geography of accident hotspots in Iran. Spatial patterns of accident hotspots are observable in linear, scattered, and dense or focal forms in specific regions. Ultimately, organizing and eliminating accident hotspots require a comprehensive approach with a land-use planning perspective.

The importance of crime detection is due to the fact that a large part of people in society and all coercive and social control institutions are affected by this phenomenon. In some way, the peace and social security of society is intertwined with this phenomenon, but such importance depends on having agents with proper interrogation skills. Therefore, the present research was conducted with the aim of identifying interviewing and interrogation skills in law enforcement and theft. In this research, qualitative approach and thematic analysis method have been used. The statistical population of this research is 15 detectives and crime detection specialists who work in specialized police forces, and among them, a targeted approach and a theoretical saturation criterion were used to select the statistical sample. The data collection tool was a semi-structured interview, which was used to determine its reliability and validity using the four criteria of credibility, transferability, verifiability and reliability. Thematic analysis was used to analyze the data. The interpretation of the main and secondary concepts in the interview text showed that interviewing and interrogation skills in police affairs and criminal investigation of theft cases include 96 secondary concepts and 4 main concepts, including technical and informational skills, professional and detective skills, verbal and communication skills and psychological and perceptive skills that are mentioned in the text of the article. One of the most important issues that should be considered by specialized police in the process of criminalizing theft is the use of existing capacities and training and having such four skills for interrogators.

Flood is one of the most damaging natural disasters that causes many human and financial losses to human societies all over the world every year; So that on a global scale, 40% of the total number of natural disasters and 26% of all deaths caused by natural disasters are caused by floods. The purpose of this research is to epitomize the lived experience of police commanders and managers of Lorestan and Khuzestan provinces in the crisis caused by the flood incident in 2019.

The current research is applied in terms of purpose and qualitative research in terms of approach that was conducted based on the phenomenological methodology. The number of samples was determined based on the principle of theoretical saturation, and based on this, in the framework of targeted sampling, the participation of 35 police commanders and managers of Lorestan and Khuzestan was used. Semi-structured interview was used for data collection and two-level thematic analysis according to Smith and Osborn method was used for data analysis.

The main themes obtained from the depiction of the lived experience of the participants are: the weakness of training before the crisis; extra-organizational cooperation and interaction; preventing, controlling and dealing with crime and disorder; helping the rescue mission; delegation of authority in the hierarchy of command; physical and mental resilience; behavior patterns; current guidelines, procedures and practices; crisis command; social participation; law enforcement logistics; supporting the families of employees living in the flooded area; consulting services after crisis management operations.

The results of the research displayed the challenges, problems, as well as the positive and successful experience of police commanders and managers in the flood crisis of Lorestan and Khuzestan provinces in 2019. The results of the research included practical implications for the disciplinary management of natural crises, including floods.

order and security is one of the most vital needs of the tourism industry, and the police plays a key role in this field. Therefore, the aim of the current research is to identify and analyze the factors affecting the security of the tourism industry in Iran.

The research is of a mixed type in terms of the applied purpose, in terms of the nature of the data, and in the framework of the qualitative-exploratory and survey-Delphi stages. In the phase of qualitative-exploratory study, the components of tourism police security were identified. The findings obtained from the qualitative phase were the basis for designing the Delphi questionnaire as a research tool in the quantitative phase. The Delphi survey was carried out with the participation of 40 specialists and experts. Delphi panel members were selected by purposive sampling method. Descriptive statistics and Kendall's coefficient of agreement were used to analyze the data in the Delphi survey stage.

The effective factors on the regulatory security of the tourism industry in Iran are: monitoring, monitoring and disciplinary supervision of the police on the order and security of tourism; Prevention of crime and disorder in the tourism sector; Strengthening traffic management in tourist routes and areas; interaction, participation and coordination in creating tourism order and security; Dealing with criminal cases in tourism; providing administrative services to tourists; Empowerment and specialized training of employees in the field of tourism order and security; Police control and dealing with evasion in tourism with an agreed ratio; Information elites on the factors disturbing the order and security of tourism; Information and media activity in the field of order and security of tourism. In the final stage of the Delphi survey, the agreement coefficient in all the mentioned dimensions was higher than 0.7

According to the results of the intra-organizational participation of most of the specialized police to realize the objectives of order and security of tourism, it seems obvious. Also, the security of tourism in practice requires joint efforts, interaction and constructive cooperation of the police with the set of organizations and institutions related

Possessing map reading and technical skills is one of the important aspects of commanders' operational capability in border units. Considering the conditions governing the border areas, it is important to formulate accurate indicators in this field to empower the commanders and also evaluate their skill level and capability in managerial and organizational evaluations based on these indicators. This issue has not been investigated in our country so far and the article is innovative in this aspect. Therefore, the Delphi method was implemented in three stages, including the qualitative-exploratory stage and two quantitative stages of the Delphi survey. 73 indicators identified in the qualitative stage for map reading and calculus technique were categorized into 5 skills, which include 19 indicators in orientation and routing; 14 indicators in determining distance and scale; There are 7 indicators in the detection of land features, 14 indicators in determining the position, and 19 indicators in the detection of signs and military contracts. Kendall's coefficient of agreement test (w) in the second stage of implementing the Delphi questionnaire revealed the achievement of summaries above 50% among the participants in the 5 mentioned skills. Indicators of the ability to determine the location of the enemy's outpost on the map, the ability to calculate the distance between the enemy's outpost and the enemy's outpost using a linear scale, recognizing the shape of the land and unevenness and explaining the effect of each complication on military maneuvers in the detection of terrain complications, placing the given UTM coordinates on the map in determining the position and the recognition of signs related to different orders - the ability to draw signs related to military and law enforcement units in recognizing military signs and contracts were identified as the most important indicators.

One of the most important programs of the government in order to preserve the forest areas of the country has been the implementation of the plan to remove livestock from the forest and organize the forest dwellers. It has been especially helpful for the residents of forest villages. The purpose of this study was to identify the effects of the organizing of livestock and forest residents' exit out of the forest on rural communities in the Ramyan region in Golestan province. Data collection continued until theoretical data saturation and 23 semi-structured individual interviews were conducted. In order to achieve the main objective of the research, a three-step content analysis process by King et al (2018) was used to study the effects of implementing the reorganization plan. Finally, MAXQDA20 software was used for the drawing of a schematic network. Based on codes obtained from the interviews with the villagers involved in the livestock moving out plan by MAXQDA20 software, 4 organizing themes including the economic (6 sub-themes), social (6 sub-themes), institutions-management (5 Sub-themes) and physical (4 sub-themes) were analyzed. The results showed that the plan for the organiz-ing of livestock and forest residents' exit out of the forest on rural communities in the Ramyan region was unsuccessful from the viewpoint of the beneficiaries and the plan needs support and guidance toward economic self-sufficiency and recovery of their social culture.

Torqabeh and Shandiz region has faced a large number of tourist arrivals in recent years due to its location in the tourism target area. This situation, while creating various opportunities, has provided problems for local residents in various fields, including law enforcement issues. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of data collection. The statistical population of the population is 18 years and older, which according to the results of the last census is equal to 48520 people and the number of sample size according to Cochran's formula is 384 people. Multi-stage cluster sampling method and research tool is a questionnaire. In order to evaluate the validity of the questionnaire from face validity and construct validity; Cronbach's alpha coefficient and combined reliability were used to confirm the reliability and structural equation modeling was used to test the hypotheses. Findings show that police actions in crime prevention, crime control and control, traffic management and road transport, and finally police actions in monitoring the performance of recreational-tourist facilities, have a positive and significant effect on the satisfaction of residents of Torqabeh and Shandiz districts of Mashhad. If the actions of the police are a combination of preventive, counter and control measures, traffic management and monitoring of tourism areas, it can satisfy local residents.

IntroductionTemperature is considered to be an important element of climate whose changes have important consequences for human life. The present study seeks to detect trends and significant changes in the temperature at the 1000 hPa level in Iran. Due to its geographical location, Iran climate is affected by various patterns of sea level pressure such as subtropical high-pressure, Siberian high-pressure, Monsoon low-pressure, the Mediterranean low pressure, Black Sea low pressure and Sudan low pressure during warm and cold seasons. These patterns have changed in different time series leaving adverse effects such as decreased precipitation and increased temperature, while probably changing Iran climate from semi-arid to arid and causing climate hazards. Having enough information on the temperature characteristics and its future trends, it is possible to decide on macro politics and a comprehensive method for the management of an area. Therefore, the present study aims to detect trends and significant changes in air temperature at the 1000 hPa level. Materials & Methods45 ° to 64 ° Eastern longitude and 45 ° to 64 ° latitude were selected to study temperature changes at the 1000 hPa level in Iran. In this study, temperature data of 1000 hPa level recorded in a 70-year statistical period (1950 to 2020) and data retrieved from NCEP/NCAR with a spatial resolution of 2.5 by 2.5 degrees have been used to prepare time series and necessary maps. The Kendall Man test was used to analyze the trend of time series. The 70-year statistical period (1950 - 2020) was divided into 10 decades and average seasonal temperature was used. Results & DiscussionThe average temperature of Iran at the 1000 hPa level is rising by 1.34° C per century and its standard deviation has reached its maximum value in recent decades. In the last two decades of the statistical period, 30 ° C contour line has approached Iran from southwest. Temperature trend at the 1000 hPa level is investigated in 4 different seasons of Iran.Summer: according to the Mann-Kendall test, average temperature in summer shows a significant trend and has increased by 0.2 ° C every decade.Autumn: time series of temperature data in autumn shows a significant trend and the slope of the regression line (temperature) has increased with a rate of 0.0451 ° C every decade.Winter: average temperature has decreased at the beginning of the study series and increased at the end of the series. 15.26 ° C and 8.18 ° C (in 1966 and 1972) were the highest and the lowest average temperature recorded in winter, respectively.Spring:The average temperature in Iran has increased by 0.197 ° C every decade. In this 70-year statistical period, average temperature of Iran in this season was 24.37 ° C with the highest annual average temperature recorded as 27.18 ° C in 2008 and the lowest annual average temperature recorded as 21.83 ° C in 1972 and 1992. ConclusionAverage temperature in Iran is raising with a rate much higher than the global average (0.74 ° C  per hundred years), due to wide fluctuations in the general circulation patterns of the atmosphere and changes in sea level pressure pattern. Thus, it can be predicted that the temperature in southern Iran may reach over 60 ° C by the end of the century threatening southern riparian provinces with dangerously rising water level and the risk of drowning. Wildfires will still be common in Iranian forests, the number and intensity of floods will increase sharply, and water resources will reach a critically low status.

The purpose of this study is to emphasize the methods of preventing the theft of second homes in the city of Urmia and in this regard, identifying and analyzing the most important approaches to preventing theft is the focus. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of methodological process is a type of mixed studies (qualitative-quantitative). The statistical population is in a small group of experts and specialists in the field of law enforcement management, tourism security specialists, local managers and owners of second homes in the city of Urmia. Using purposive sampling method,40 people were selected to participate in the Delphi study. Questionnaire data were analyzed using descriptive and Friedman statistics and Kendall agreement coefficient. Based on the findings of the qualitative stage,13 propositions were identified as situational prevention approaches and 7 propositions as social prevention approaches. Findings from the data indicate that in preventing targeted police patrols and strengthening them at night, especially in the colder months of the year when homeowners are less present, has the highest priority and observance of law enforcement security considerations in locating houses. The villa with the lowest priority and in the dimension of social prevention, attracting the participation of local people in introducing suspicious and experienced people to the police with the highest priority and educating and promoting preventive methods of robbing villa houses to the people with the lowest priority was recognized by the participants. The results of the research show that the continuous training of the owners of these houses, equipping the police patrols and also the public efforts of all the involved agencies have an effect on preventing the theft of the recreational villa houses in Urmia.

Urban growth and creepsprawl is a dynamic and if this process continuous so fast and unplanned, in addition urban spaces could not creating a good physical composition. Also, it will create many problems in various social, economic and environmental areas for the urban space. It will be a model of a sick city that has suffered from the damage caused by this growing disorder from the development of the city. This form of physical growth of the city is in conflict with the sustainable development of the city.CreepSprawl is generally seen as a low-density, unplanned, and irregularly growing phenomenon outside of urban centers. Compared to intensive development city, urban creepsprawl develops more peripheral spaces and absorbs areas around the city. And so it destroys many rural settlements and agricultural land uses, challenging the countryside ecosystem.Damavand city in the northeast of Tehran metropolis has also been strongly affected by the mentioned conditions. This city to the above problems has been increasingly expanding from the center to the natural and rural suburbs around the central city in recent decades. Problems caused by urban management weaknesses, in order to create an unfavorable role in controlling the conditions governing the growth and physical development of Damavand city. The city of Damavand, towards uncontrolled growth, led to the surrounding natural and rural spaces, especially in the northern and southern parts. Therefore, the present study examines the different dimensions of the negative effects to urban creepsprawl in Damavand city.Theoretical FoundationsThe creepsprawl phenomenon in a variety of ways, from the perspective of developmental aesthetics to local street patterns can be described. There are several common features that encompass literature that can be help researchers to understand and even measure it. These include: 1. Low-density, single-family homes; 2. Dependence on cars; 3. Existence of creepsprawl growth outside urban centers; 4. Growth creepsprawling pattern; 5. Extension of urban growth; 6. Unspecified boundaries between urban areas and rural areas. By examining the theoretical literature of urban creepsprawl, these theories can be categorized under five heading groups.

This research is applied in terms of purpose, and in terms of the nature and method of data collection and analysis is quantitative, and descriptive-survey in terms of implementation method. Data collection tools are the standard questionnaire of the European Environment Agency on the subject of "urban creepsprawl" along with field observations. This questionnaire was designed to evaluate the effects of urban creepsprawl from the perspective of urban development stakeholders. Based on this, the citizens living in the native or permanent city of Damavand were considered as statistical population. The Likert range consisted of five options for answering questions. The Cochran's formula was used at the error level of 0.05 to determine the sample size. The Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to evaluate the reliability of the research instrument. Based on the population of Damavand city, the last official census of the country (2016) and using Cochran's formula, the sample size was estimated to be 384 people. Samples were selected by simple random sampling. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to check the normality of the data. Finally, after ensuring that the data were normal, an inferential and parametric test was used to analyze the data.

The data in this part of the study have a high reliability (0.85). In all items, the t-test value was 95% significant. Also, the average obtained in all cases is higher than acceptable. The findings show that from the perspective of respondents, urban creepsprawl has a negative impact on Damavand's natural resources and environmental countryside ecosystem. This situation shows that in general, the items that affect the impact of urban creepsprawl on water and soil resources are more important to the citizens living in Damavand.In examining the reliability of urban creepsprawl data on the health and quality of life of Damavand citizens, the value of Cronbach's alpha was 0.74, which indicates an acceptable level of confidence. Also, the average number in all cases is more than acceptable, i.e. 3 as the middle limit. In general, the findings show that in this part of the research, the impact of urban creepsprawl on the dimensions of environmental pollution has received more attention from respondents.In the reliability study of the economic effects of the urban creepsprawl phenomenon in Damavand, the value of Cronbach's alpha was 0.83. This value indicates the reliability and high validity of the obtained data. In general, the analysis of the findings of this part of the research shows that economic issues related to the environment and more energy consumption are in the focus of respondent's attention. Rising urban living costs and rising wastewater and urban waste management are other issues that come to the next.By its nature, urban creepsprawl is a physical development and physical expansion of the city into its surroundings. The results of the T-test were observed in both significant cases and the mean value was calculated beyond the acceptable level, so that the average of "physical growth of the city unplanned, spontaneous and uncontrolled" was equal to 4.11, and the mean of "creating dense textures and disrupting the process of renovation and improvement of the city" was 4.99.

The findings show due to the growth of environmental pollution, increased vulnerability to that the threat to the health of citizens. And also, natural disasters due to manipulation and uncontrolled interventions in the natural environment, uncontrolled growth of population and population density in the region are more threat to the health of citizens. The negative economic effects of urban creepsprawl in Damavand include: increasing the costs of nature restoration and increasing the costs of environmental protection; increasing consumption and energy costs; increasing the cost of land and housing; increasing the cost of developing urban infrastructure and services; increasing the cost of relocation and transportation; rising wastewater and municipal waste management costs. 

Due to the obvious consequences of natural crises such as earthquakes in disrupting public order and security, law enforcement is always known as one of the main pillars of managing such crises. The main purpose of this study is to identify the methods of disciplinary management in earthquake crisis in the framework of pre-crisis, post-crisis and post-crisis stages.

This research is of classical Delphi type in terms of practical purpose and in terms of nature and is among the exploratory and survey researches. Using targeted sampling and snowballs, the participation of 25 law enforcement commanders who had a history of responsibility in managing the country's earthquake crises in recent decades in the Delphi group was used. The final data obtained from the Delphi questionnaire were analyzed using descriptive statistical tests and Kendall's inferential inference test.

The findings of the qualitative stage revealed 111 propositions in the field of earthquake management, which were divided into 15 different dimensions based on their content, including 5 pre-crisis stages, 6 intra-crisis stages and 4 post-crisis dimensions. During the two stages of the Delphi survey, an acceptable consensus of more than 70% was achieved in all dimensions.

Based on the results of the research, the pre-crisis police management model in 5 dimensions, including command measures, staff training and empowerment, logistical and defense measures, bedrock of internal and external interaction; During the crisis in 6 dimensions, including crisis command, preparedness and dispatch of police forces and equipment, urban and suburban traffic management, crime control and disorder, earthquake-affected staff, protection-security measures and post-crisis in 4 dimensions , Includes the normalization of regulatory conditions in the earthquake-stricken area, control and monitoring measures, repair and reconstruction, and strategic analysis.

Weak rural development strategies, climate change issues and successive droughts in the province of South Khorasan over the past decades caused about half of the rural settlements to be completely empty of human population. Due to this issue, the main question of this research is “What are the security consequences of population evacuation of rural settlements in South Khorasan province?” In terms of purpose, the present research is an applied study, and in terms of method of data collection and analysis, it is a descriptive survey, which has been done in the framework of the Delphi method stages. Using purposive sampling, participants or Delphi panel members selected from related experts equal 35 people. In order to formulate Delphi propositions, using an exploratory approach, two focus group sessions were held and 12 members of the Delphi panel participated in each session. Delphi survey stopped after two rounds, right after reaching an acceptable consensus among Delphi panel members. Descriptive tests include mean, standard deviation and mean rank used to analyze the results of the Delphi survey as well as Kendall's coefficient of concordance used to examine the level of consensus among participants. Based on the findings of the Delphi exploration stage, 22 propositions were identified as consequences of population evacuation of rural settlements in South Khorasan province. In summary, the most important research results are: endangering the order and security of migrant cities, disruption of public safety and social security in rural areas, the difficulty of law enforcement management in human and natural disasters in rural area, increased crime and security gaps in rural areas, the unsustainability of food security and threatening the economic security of rural businesses on a regional scale.

Social prevention of crime against citizens' property, especially residential areas, is one of the areas that requires constructive interaction between the police and municipalities. This study aims to identify and investigate the interactive challenges of police and municipality in the social prevention of urban home burglary.

In terms of its objectives the present study is of an applied research type and in terms of its procedure it is considered as mixed research. The participating community in the qualitative stage included the managers of police and municipal organizations in the city of Ahvaz, 12 of whom were selected by purposive sampling method. The statistical population of the study in the quantitative stage consisted of two groups of commanders and law enforcement managers and managers of Ahvaz municipality (76 individuals). The sample size was determined as 69 individuals using Morgan Table. In the qualitative stage, brainstorming session was used as a data collection tool. In the quantitative stage, a researcher-made questionnaire was used. The face and content validity of the assessment tool was finally confirmed by 7 control experts and after applying their opinions, the reliability of the questionnaire was obtained using Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.86). Quantitative data were analyzed through independent t-test using SPSS software.

The results of Levin's test on the similarity of variances show that only in three cases a significant level of 0.05 has been obtained and the H1 hypothesis of inequality of variance between the views of the two groups is confirmed. In 8 other cases of interactive challenges of law enforcement management and municipal institution in the field of social prevention of home burglary in Ahvaz, the significance level of Levin's test is higher than 0.05.

The results of the research indicate that there is no disagreement on most of the challenges of interaction between I. R. I. Police and the municipal institution in managing home burglary prevention. Therefore, it can be concluded that in the interactive areas of police and municipality, there is theoretically no difference of opinion between the managers of these two organizations, and therefore the need to implement interactive strategies in this area seems obvious.

Security is one of most important needs of tourism development. Therefore, the purpose of this study is identify crime prevention approaches against foreign tourists in Tehran metropolis. The research is a descriptive-survey based on purpose of the data collection, in framework of Delphi survey. Delphi method was implemented in 3 steps including qualitative-exploratory and two-step Delphi surveys. In qualitative stage, 15 semi-structured interviews with experts and experts were conducted based on the sampling. Data were analyzed and quantitative analysis of content was analyzed. Finally, 49 approaches were identified. findings of the qualitative stage were based on the Delphi questionnaire and by adding 15 others to collaborators, number of members of Delphi panel increased to 30 at survey stage. 49 approaches to crime prevention against foreign tourists in 4 sections including 10 cases at entry and exit points and tourism routes, 12 cases in places and residential centers, 16 cases in tourist attractions, and 11 in catering centers, Service and commercial tourism. The Kendall Coefficient Coefficient Test in the second round of the Delphi Questionnaire revealed a consensus over 50% among the participants in the four sections. Preventing the activity of personal and unauthorized taxi drivers at airports and passenger terminals, the timely availability of police to tourist information systems in residential centers, the development of group travel camps and the absence of tourists from their fellow travelers, legal clashes with catering, service and business centers. Defying tourism and preventing their activities, if repeated, were identified as the most important approaches

False occupations, which are most affected by the unemployment problem, can have negative security-policing consequences, causing many problems for the community and increasing crime and social damage. This research was conducted with the main purpose of identifying the security and safety implications of false occupations in Rasht city. This research is applied in terms of its purpose and is qualitative in nature. Researchers comprise top managers and senior police officers, professors from Rasht University (in the field of sociology, economics and management) and experts in the field of urban management (municipal). Sampling was done purposefully and continued to reach the theoretical saturation through conducting in-depth interviews with 10 experts. The method of data analysis was used to analyze the data. The results of the analysis of the theme revealed that the false occupations of the city of Rasht were not the security-law enforcement of the fake occupations, namely: creating a hangout for people with criminal thought, buying, selling and distributing drugs and alcoholic beverages, robbery and robbery, Social and cultural anomalies, rape, strife, adolescence, murder and fraud. Most false occupations do not require specific expertise and entry into these businesses is easy and easy. Due to the wide range of false occupations and their different implications, security and law enforcement needs to be tailored to fit them, planning and appropriate managerial actions. Regarding the multifaceted nature of most false occupations, the adjustment of negative security implications requires the involvement of various organizations and institutions as well as the utilization of the knowledge, experience and expertise of various stakeholders.

The purse snatch crime is one of the forms of robberies that in terms of location it occurs more in the geographical area of the cities. The purpose of this paper is to investigate spatial-locational analysis of purse snatch in Babol city, through mapping based on GIS, to achieve prevention management approaches of this type of crime. From the perspective of many criminological experts, the purse snatch is classified as a rough urban crime. In terms of its purpose this study is of an applied research type and in terms of the logic of collecting and processing the data it is in the framework of the geographic school of quantitative study, and descriptive and spatial-locational analysis. The total purse snatch offense committed in 2017 was considered as a basis for the creation of a database for mapping. The data were collected from the GIS system of Mazandaran Provincial Police Command as one of the leading provinces in this field as well as recorded records and analyzed by ArcGIS software. The deviation of the ellipse and the center of gravity test were used to detect the focus of the crime.Findings and The majority of the purse snatchers is middle-aged, married, unemployed, uneducated, and has a criminal record. The frequency of the purse snatch has increased from the periphery to the center of the city and its center of gravity is aligned with the central regions of the city. The day-to-day pattern of purse snatch is inclined to the one-third end of the day and the seasonal pattern to the summer. The findings of the research indicate that, today, law enforcement agencies need to use the GIS in the prevention and dealing with offenses such as purse snatch; the spatial analysis of purse snatch in Babol reveals the need to clear the central areas of Babol from this offense. Success in this area requires the rehabilitation and modernization of the worn-out areas of the city based on the principles of situational crime prevention, and strengthening social and criminal prevention.