جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « risk » در نشریات گروه « جغرافیا »

Earthquakes as one of the most important natural disasters on earth, have always caused irreparable damage to human settlements in a short period of time. Severe earthquakes have led to the idea of developing an infrastructure plan to reduce the risks and damages caused by it. The urban water supply system is the most important critical infrastructure that is usually damaged by natural disasters, particularly earthquakes and floods; hence, the function of the pipelines of the water system determines the degree of resilience and design of the infrastructure against multiple natural and man-made hazards. Considering the inability to prevent earthquakes and the inability of experts to accurately predict the time it is necessary to know the status of earthquake-structure and seismicity in Tehran to determine the amount of earthquake risk in order to make the necessary planning for structural reinforcement. Theoretical and field studies of tectonic seismicity in the Tehran area show that this city is located on an earthquake-prone area around the active and important faults of Masha, north of Tehran, Rey and Kahrizak. The occurrence of 20 relatively severe earthquakes illustrates this claim. Regarding the location of faults in Tehran city, it is necessary to assess the vulnerability of Tehran water facilities.

The present study is a practical-analytic one. Considering the severity of earthquake damages, it is necessary to conduct earthquake hazard zonation studies in different urban areas and to determine important indicators of damage assessment such as maximum ground acceleration, maximum ground speed, maximum ground displacement. Three indices were considered for mapping earthquake seismic zones and their integration into the GIS presented a seismic hazard map. In the analysis of earthquake risk, it is necessary to evaluate two indicators of risk and vulnerability. To prepare the general hazard power mapping the weights obtained from the ANP model were applied to the existing raster layers via the Raster Calculator command. In this way, the standardized layers are multiplied separately by their respective weights and finally overlapped. In order to evaluate the vulnerability, a series of evaluation indices are introduced and ANP techniques are used. The relative value of each index is then calculated using the multivariate approach using the SAW technique. In order to calculate the earthquake risk based on R = H * V relation, the values ​​of these two components were multiplied. This calculation was performed in GIS software on the risk and vulnerability raster layer and the final result of this calculation was displayed on the map.

In this study, we tried to estimate the relative risk and risk of seismic hazard on the water supply lines in Tehran, using available data and scientific methods, and map the risk level. These lines should be prepared first by the amount of earthquake hazard risk and then by the risk map, to estimate the earthquake risk on the water supply network. first the earthquake risk then the status of the hazard lines should be calculated. The vulnerability of the water supply lines was calculated using the ANP model by multiplying the total potential hazard risk then substrate transfer network vulnerability risk map obtained transmission network. The highest risk was in the west and north of Tehran. The maps showed the risk potential and the vulnerability of the lines. These areas had high seismic potential and the density of the lines was higher in these areas. Water transmission facilities are at risk and earthquake hazards may be affected by damage to the transmission lines, drinking water to a large population will be difficult, as well as performing necessary zoning to prevent future expansion of the facility in place. These analyzes are a prelude to applying corrective techniques to pipelines to reduce their vulnerability and prevent newly created pipelines from locating in vulnerable areas. Since the results of this study are risk maps along the route of the water supply lines, so in order to prepare a risk control program, we can identify the high risk pipeline map and identify the pipeline vulnerability. And, depending on its location, provided an appropriate prevention and control plan for the conditions surrounding the pipeline environment.

The aim of this study was to predict the flood zone in the context of climate change based on the scenarios of the Fifth International Climate Change Board's assessment report in Qarahsu Basin (Golestan Province). This research consists of two phases: climatic and hydrological. In the climatic phase, daily data of minimum, maximum temperature, precipitation and sunny hours of Gorgan Hashemabad Synoptic Station in the period 2001-2020 were simulated using LARS-WG statistical model and after ensuring the efficiency of this model in simulation Construction of meteorological parameters in Gharasoo watershed of Golestan province, to investigate the impact of climate change on runoff in the study area, data of three scenarios A2 (maximum scenario), A1B (medium scenario) and B1 (minimum scenario) of the model HadCM3 was scaled in the period 2021-2050 with a small LARS-WG statistical model. In the hydrological phase, precipitation-runoff is simulated using the SWAT hydrological model and after calibration (from January 1, 2012 to December 29, 2016) and validation of this model (December 30, 2016 to December 29, 2018), temperature and precipitation data. The output of LARS-WG model was entered into SWAT model and the changes of runoff due to climate change in future periods compared to the base period were calculated. The results showed that according to the estimation of LARS-WG model for the studied scenarios in the future periods, the average temperature of Qarahsu watershed will increase by 0.56 to 4 degrees Celsius. The amount of precipitation also decreases by 10 to 24% compared to the base period. Finally, the flood of the study basin is zoned in GIS environment by combining the average runoff map under scenario A2, distance from the river and the shape coefficient of the basin using Fuzzy-AHP method. According to zoning, 44% is at high and very high risk.

The location of most of the cities in the boundaries of active faults has increased the vulnerability of urban buildings to earthquakes. The city of Marand is located within 15 kilometers of the active fault line of Azerbaijan in earthquake zoning. The presence of marginal and worn-out tissues will cause double damage to these tissues against earthquakes. The present research has investigated and analyzed the earthquake risk in the human settlements of Marand using a descriptive-analytical methodology. The statistical population of this research is the worn-out tissues of Marand. In order to assess the earthquake risk in the study area, first the earthquake risk assessment model was presented in the worn-out context of Marand, and then by weighting the indicators using the opinion of urban science experts and information processing in the geographical information system environment, through the model weighted overlap, vulnerability zoning map of worn out fabric of Marand was extracted. Building quality indicators, building age, structure type, distance from roads, facade type, building density, and population density have been used to evaluate the vulnerability of worn-out fabric. According to the maps derived from the weighted overlay model, 40% of the worn-out fabric area of ​​Marand with an area of ​​372,958 square meters (37.2 hectares) is exposed to very high and high vulnerability to earthquakes.

Flood is one of the important natural disasters that causes a lot of financial and human losses every year, and in order to reduce its losses and casualties, it has always been the attention of managers and planners. The purpose of this research is to prepare a flood risk zoning map in Nowshahr city. In this study, in order to achieve the goal of the research, first by studying and investigating the theoretical foundations of the subject, the effective factors in the occurrence of floods, including height, slope direction, slope, waterway density, distance From the river, soil, land use, geology, slope curvature, land type and precipitation were identified. Then, the maps of each of the mentioned criteria were prepared in Arc GIS 10.5. After preparing the layers of the effective factors in the occurrence of floods, using the opinion of 25 experts in this field, the layers and sub-criteria were weighted using the fuzzy hierarchical method. And in the last step, the obtained weight of each factor was applied to each of the layers in the ARC/MAP software environment, and the zoning map of flood risk was prepared using the fuzzy logic of the 0.9 gamma operator. According to the results of Vozandhi, the factors of rainfall, distance from the river, slope and land use are the most important factors of flood in the region. The zoning map shows the risk of flooding in Nowshahr city.

Natural hazards have always occurred suddenly and at all times. Human societies have always suffered greatly from these dangers. One way to deal with these risks is to increase the resilience of communities to these risks. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the resilience of urban and rural communities against natural hazards and to provide a resilience model in each of the communities in Golpayegan city. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method of work. The statistical population of the study consists of all heads of urban and rural households in Golpayegan city (61101 households), from which a sample size of 621 people was randomly selected using the Cochran's formula. One-sample t-test, regression analysis and path analysis were used for the analysis. The results of regression analysis showed that the economic index with beta coefficient of 13161 has the greatest impact on urban and rural communities and the institutional index with beta coefficient of 13032 has the least impact. Also, the results of path analysis showed that the economic variable with an overall effect of 13226 and the social variable with an overall effect of 13223 have the greatest impact on the resilience of urban and rural communities in Golpayegan, respectively, and the physical-environmental variable with an overall effect of 13232 Among other variables, it had the least impact on the resilience of urban and rural communities in Golpayegan. Also, the results of experts' studies showed that the resilience of rural communities is much lower than the resilience of urban communities. Also, the results showed that the total resilience of rural communities is equal to 23112 and in urban communities is equal to 63011, which shows the difference in resilience between urban and rural communities.

Hail is a natural disaster for all people, especially farmers. Usually in the insurance industry to calculate the risk of hail damage in each area, the frequency of rainfall (in terms of days) and the average damage are used, which is statistically significant. Hail is one of the phenomena connected with thunderstorms that occur in unstable atmospheres with high humidity and in the presence of strong winds and with mechanisms that increase instability, and these conditions are affected by Local topography and climatology of air masses. Therefore, in order to obtain an overview of the spatial and temporal distribution of hail damage on agricultural products in East Azerbaijan province and to investigate the differences between different parts of the region in terms of this type of rainfall It is better to identify and introduce the cause of possible differences between different areas and the conditions under which this rainfall occurred by achieving zoning of vulnerable areas in terms of hail damage. Thus, by considering and emphasizing the strategy of natural risk management program, which is considered as a potential and a very serious role in aggravating and increasing the damage caused by natural disasters in the region, it is possible to predict and deal with hail and lead To control the injuries caused by this phenomenon.

East Azerbaijan is located in northwestern Iran between 36˚47' N and 39˚ 40' N latitudes and between 45˚ 3' E and 48˚ 50' E longitudes. East Azerbaijan with an area of 45261.4 square kilometers is located in the northwestern corner of the Iranian plateau, which has agricultural lands of about 1320 thousand hectares, which includes 7.47 percent of the country's agricultural lands. In this study, to investigate and analyze the losses of the agricultural sector due to hail, the statistics of losses of the Agricultural Insurance Fund for the statistical period (2010-2019) were used. Due to the fact that in many cases when the hail phenomenon occurs, its very small area and the limited number of synoptic stations, the occurrence of this phenomenon can not be seen and recorded. So the area to be recorded includes only a small number of these events. Therefore, in order to assess the damage caused by hail in the study area, the days when hail caused damage were extracted and examined from the statistics of damage caused by the Agricultural Products Insurance Fund. Then, spatial statistics, hot spot index and ARC GIS software were used to identify areas vulnerable to hail.
discussion and

According to Table (3), we see that the damage caused by this phenomenon on horticultural products in East Azerbaijan province is an average of 123.5 hectares per year, with Bonab city having an average annual level of 568.1 hectares and Ahar with 491.2 hectares and Tark with 476.2 hectares are in the next ranks. But in terms of damage to crops, it was determined that Qara Aghaj with an annual average of 1143.9 hectares has the highest level of damage and Hashtrood with 826.6 hectares and Ahar with 369.1 hectares are in the next ranks.In terms of the level of damage to the total crop and horticultural products during the study period, it was found that in the province, on average, about 262 hectares of the province's area under cultivation are damaged annually due to this phenomenon. The highest level of damage is related to Qara Aghaj section with an annual average of 1159.7 hectares, which includes 14.7% of the total hail damage in the study area, and Hashtrood and Ahar with 1057.9 (13.4%) and 860.3 hectares (10.9%, respectively). ) Are in the next ranks. In order to identify areas vulnerable to hail, spatial statistics and spatial autocorrelation techniques were used, and in order to ensure areas with high and low value clusters, the * Gi index (Getis - Ard GE) was used. The results showed that in agriculture, the values of positive spatial correlation are concentrated in parts of the south of the province, which is the most vulnerable area in the study area, the central parts of Charavimaq and Shadian, and in the garden sector, the values of positive spatial correlation in Parts of the northwest and southwest of the province are concentrated, and among these, the most vulnerable area in the study area is the central and Yamchi Marand districts.

The results of this study showed that the highest frequency of damaging hail occurred in May and the lowest frequency occurred in August. The results also showed that about 71% of the harmful hail in the study area occurred in the warm seasons, which coincides with the plant growing season in this area. In the period under review, the rainfall of harmful hail in East Azerbaijan province was on average between 09:00 and 15:00 (G.M.T) more than other hours, and in this 10-year period, the maximum rainfall occurred at 12:00.In the study of hot spots based on Gi* index, it was found that in agriculture and horticulture, high value amounts (positive spatial autocorrelation) are concentrated in parts of the south and northwest of the province, respectively. Examination of the total damage of agriculture and horticulture showed that high values (positive spatial correlation) are concentrated in parts of the south of the province, and the most vulnerable areas in the study are the central parts of Charavimaq, Shadian and Nazar Kahrizi. On the other hand, a region with less vulnerability in parts of the west of the province, especially the central parts of Osku, Khosrowshahr, Mamqan, Gogan and the suburbs of Azarshahr, corresponds to areas with a spatial distribution pattern with the highest significant negative spatial self-correlation and 99 Percentages (strong-cold-cold cluster) are concentrated. By examining vulnerable areas, we can point to the high area under cultivation in these areas, as well as the impact of local factors such as topography and altitude and external factors, including the entry of hail systems from the west and southwest of the province in its occurrence and intensification.

Hail is a natural disaster for all people, especially farmers. The Hail damage depends on the frequency and intensity of rainfall. Usually in the insurance industry to calculate the risk of hail damage in each area, the frequency of rainfall (in terms of days) and the average damage, which is statistically significant are used. Hail is one of the phenomena connected with thunderstorms that occur in unstable atmospheres with high humidity and in the presence of strong winds and with mechanisms that increase instability, and these conditions are affected by local topography and climatology of air masses. Therefore, according to the natural risk management strategy, which is a potential and very serious role in reducing the damage caused by natural disasters in the region, hail can be predicted and dealt with and led to control of the resulting damage. Therefore, in order to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of hail damage on agricultural products of East Azerbaijan province, the zoning of vulnerable areas in terms of hail damage, the cause of possible differences in different areas and the conditions in which this rainfall is present, were examined.

East Azerbaijan is located in northwestern Iran between 36˚47' N and 39˚ 40' N latitudes and between 45˚ 3' E and 48˚ 50' E longitudes. East Azerbaijan with an area of ​​45261.4 square kilometers is located in the northwestern of the Iranian plateau. In this study, to investigate and analyze the losses of the agricultural sector due to hail, the data of the agricultural Insurance fund for the were useded from 2010-2019. In many cases the hail phenomenon occurs in small area where there are limited number of synoptic stations so the occurrence of this phenomenon cannot be seen and recorded. Therefore, in order to assess the damage caused by hail in the study area, the day's whit hail damages were extracted and examined from the data of the Agricultural Products Insurance Fund. Then, spatial statistics, hot spot index and ARC GIS software were used to identify areas vulnerable to hail.

The results showed that the damage caused by this phenomenon on Agricultural crops in East Azerbaijan province is an average of 123.5 hectares per year, Bonab with annual average 568.1 hectares and Ahar with 491.2 hectares and Tark with 476.2 hectares are in the next ranks. But in terms of damage to crops, it was determined that Qara Aghaj with an annual average of 1143.9 hectares has the highest level of damage and Hashtrood with 826.6 hectares and Ahar with 369.1 hectares are in the next ranks.In terms of the level of damage to the total crop and horticultural products during the study period, it was found that in the province, on average, about 262 hectares of the province's area under cultivation are damaged annually due to this phenomenon. The highest level of damage is related to Qara Aghaj region with an annual average of 1159.7 hectares, which includes 14.7% of the total hail damages in the study area, and Hashtrood and Ahar with 1057.9 (13.4%) and 860.3 hectares (10.9%, respectively). Are in the next ranks. The spatial statistics and spatial autocorrelation techniques were used identify areas vulnerable to hail, and the Gi* index was used to ensure areas with high and low value clusters. The results showed that in agriculture, the values ​​of positive spatial correlation are concentrated in parts of the south of the province, which is the most vulnerable area, the central parts of Charavimaq and Shadian, In the garden sector, the values ​​of positive spatial correlation are concentrated the northwest and southwest of the province, and among most vulnerable area in the study are in the central and Yamchi Marand districts.

The results of this study showed that the highest frequency of damaging hail occurred in May and the lowest frequency occurred in August. The results also showed that about 71% of the harmful hail in the study area occurred in the warm seasons, which coincides with the plant growing season in this area. In the period under review, the rainfall of harmful hail in East Azerbaijan province was on average between 09:00 and 15:00 (G.M.T) more than other hours, and in this 10-year period, the maximum rainfall occurred at 12:00.In the study of hot spots based on Gi* index, it was found that in agriculture, high values ​​(positive spatial autocorrelation) are concentrated in parts of the south and northwest of the province, respectively. Examination of the total damage of agriculture and horticulture showed that high values ​​(positive spatial correlation) are concentrated in parts of the south of the province, and the most vulnerable areas in the study are ​​the central parts of Charavimaq, Shadian and Nazar Kahrizi. On the other hand, a region with less vulnerability in parts of the west of the province, especially the central parts of Osku, Khosrowshahr, Mamqan, Gogan and the suburbs of Azarshahr, corresponds to areas with a spatial distribution pattern with the highest significant negative spatial self-correlation and 99 Percentages (strong-cold-cold cluster) are concentrated. By examining vulnerable areas, we can point to the high area under cultivation in these areas, as well as the impact of local factors such as topography, altitude and external factors, such as the entry of hail storms from the west and southwest of the province in its occurrence and intensification. The results of this study show the efficiency of spatial statistics techniques in identifying vulnerable areas and proper segregation based on the principles of spatial statistics and can be used as a model in other agricultural and economic sectors of the country. It is also recommended to study this index and combine the information obtained from spatial statistics with climatic information, studying the long-term impact of phenomena on changes in the pattern of hot spots and developing other spatial indicators in future studies.

Today, natural disasters and disasters increasingly threaten human societies, which, if they are not prepared, can cause irreparable damage to human life, including habitat and other economic, social, institutional, and environmental aspects.As a result, communities take a variety of approaches to mitigate the effects of natural disasters. One of these approaches is resilience and resilience to natural disasters.The purpose of this study is spatial analysis of regional resilience against natural hazards in East Azarbaijan province. The purpose of this study is descriptive-analytic in terms of purpose. A library method was used to collect the data. In order to conduct the research, 25 indices were used in the form of 5 variables: social, economic, health, service and infrastructure and environmental variables. In this study, Delphi technique was used to weight the indices and to analyze the data in order to classify the provinces, the parametric technique was used.Also, Kriging method and Arc Gis software have been used for spatial analysis of regional resilience of East Azarbaijan province. The results showed that the cities of Jolfa, Marand and Tabriz are in the first to third rank. The results of Kriging analysis also showed that the resilience status of the study areas in the northeast and southwestern regions of the province are in poor condition and the central ones are in moderate condition and are better in the northwestern regions.And the overall assessment indicates better situation in central areas such as Tabriz and Bostan Abad and Marand.And the overall assessment indicates better situation in central areas such as Tabriz and Bostan Abad and Marand.

Natural hazards can be considered as one of the most important threats to humankind and nature that can occur anywhere in the world. Natural hazards are one of the main obstacles to sustainable development in different countries and one of the important indicators of the development of world countries is their readiness to deal with natural hazards. Therefore, it is important to pay attention to it and appropriate measures should be taken to reduce the vulnerability of human settlements. Nowadays with increasing population growth, population dynamics and the large number of people exposed to various types of disasters, the need to identify environmental potential hazards and identification of hazardous areas are felt more and more. Meantime, some people may not be aware of potential hazards of their place of residence. So by identifying and evaluating potential hazards and their Risks before the occurrence, we can significantly reduce the severity of the damages and contribute to sustainable regional development. The negative effects of natural disasters can be minimized by the availability of comprehensive and useful information from different areas and Multihazard mapping is one of the most effective tools in this regard.
According to the above mentioned, in this study, the spatial analysis of potential hazards in Silvana district in Urmia County has been studied. This study area due to specific geographic conditions such as position, complexity of topographic and ecological structures, in general, the existence of environmental factors for hazards has been selected as the study area. There have been a number of hazards in the past and assessing of this area is necessary, because of the lack of previous studies. For this purpose, by reviewing various reports and doing field observations, three hazards including Flood, Landslide, and Earthquake are identified as potential hazards of the study area.
For assessing hazards, 12 factors in 6 clusters such as Slope, Aspect (Topographic factors), Lithology, Soil type, Distance to Faults (Geological factors) Precipitation (Climatological factors), River Network Density, Groundwater Resources (Hydrological factors), Land use, Distance to Roads (Human factors), Observed Landslide Density and Seismicity (Historical factors) as the research factors has been selected. For weighting factors, Analytic Network Process (ANP) Method in Super Decisions 2.6.0 software environment has been used. The results of the analysis show that Slope (0.201), Precipitation (0.161), Lithology (0.112), Distance to Faults (0.106), Land use (0.096), Rivers (0.078), Seismicity (0.06), Soil Type (0.055), Landslide Density (0.047), Aspect (0.033), Groundwater (0.03) and Distance to Roads (0.016), Respectively have maximum to minimum relative weight. Then, weighted maps are standardized with using FUZZY functions. For this purpose, Fuzzy membership functions such as Linear, Large and Small has been selected based on each factor. For some factors such as Slope, Aspect, Lithology, Soil type, Rivers density, Land use, Seismicity and Landslide density, Fuzzy linear function has been used. For some others such as Groundwater and Precipitation, Fuzzy large function has been used and for distance to Faults and distance to Roads, Fuzzy small function has been used. Finally, weighted maps were overlay in ArcGIS 10.4.1 environment with Fuzzy Gamma 0.9 operator and potential hazards zoning maps is obtained.
Final results indicate that major parts in the Northwest, West and South of the study area located in high risk zones and 59 percent of the total area exposed to high risk. Based on hazard zoning maps, 44 percent of the area exposed to Flooding, 48 percent exposed to Landslide and 44 percent exposed to Earthquake. Also, 61 percent of the population or 37394 people exposed to one hazard, 7 percent or 3817 people exposed to two hazard and 8 percent or 4914 people exposed to three hazard. According to surveys, only 21 percent of the study area is considered as a low risk area but that does not mean that environmental hazards will never happen in these areas. In general, and based on results, it is concluded that Silvana district has a high potential for environmental hazards. Final results of the research show that potential hazards identifying and preparation of hazard zoning maps can be very useful in reducing damages and achieving sustainable regional development. Therefore, considering the ability of hazard zoning maps to identify areas exposed to risk and assess the type of potential hazards, These analyzes should be considered as one of the most appropriate and useful tools in different stages of crisis management that can be the solution to many problems in preventing and responding to natural disasters and therefore, it is recommended that they be used in the crisis management process.

21st century is the era of cities’vulnerability, since as urban life becomes more complex, cities face natural hazards and technological crises on the one hand and social-security crises on the other.Urban safety and security have long been a focus of urban planning, and planners have always been concerned about this important issue in the process of building and designing urban areas.Improving the security of critical infrastructures can play a key role in provision of better services and reduction of vulnerabilities, especially in times of crisis,Moreover, reducing the vulnerability of urban land uses by new crisis management approaches such as passive defense, which is one of the most important goals of urban managers can play a role in creation of a safe environment in cities and mitigationof damages.  

The present research is theoretical-practical and descriptive-analytic in nature. For data analysis, the final weights of indices were determined using FAHP-GIS and then the neighborhood of each layer was identifiedusing the Distance tool. Afterwards, maps of the interval zoneswere overlapped usingFuzzy Overlay(gamma-0.9)of the Spatial Analyst Tools.  

The findings of the present study on spatial analysis of critical infrastructure have indicated that: (A)The 2nd district of Yasujfaces the highest risk level, while the 3rd district faces the lowest level of risks. High concentration of critical infrastructures in the 2nd district and improper distribution of these infrastructures and organizations providing emergency servicesare the most important causes of risks in the city of Yasuj. B) None of the studied critical infrastructures and organizations providing emergency services in Yasuj are located in the very low risk zone. C) Only about 31% of the studied critical land uses are located in the low Risk zone. D) Spatial analysis of critical infrastructures in Yasuj has shown the lack of a logical balance in spatial distribution of these infrastructures. Therefore, ifa possible emergency situation damages a part of the city (the 2nd district as considered in the present study), the activities of many sectors will be challengeddue to the synergy and interoperability of the infrastructure.  

The results show that 11 land uses or 45.83% of infrastructures with percent value of 0.19-0.1 are located in the high risk zone; 6 land uses or 25% of infrastructures with percent value of 0.20-0.39 are located in the relatively dangerous zone; 5 land uses or 20.83% of infrastructures with percent value of 0.40-0.59 are located in the medium risk zone, and finally, 2 land uses or 8.33% of the infrastructures with percent value of 0.60-0.79 are located in the low risk zone. None of the land uses in Yasuj are located inthe very low risk zone.

This research was conducted quantitatively to identify and analyze the sources of risks of saffron production in Kermanshah province. The statistical population consisted of 114 saffron farmers of the province, of whom data were collected by complete enumeration technique. The research instrument was a researcher-made questionnaire consisting of two sections including the demographic and occupational characteristics of the participants and items to measure risk. The data were analyzed by opinion polls and related formulas. The results of the multi virtual cluster analysis showed that most saffron farmers reported low production risk, price and financial costs, and moderate and high natural and human risks. According to saffron farmers, the most important risks include production risks (such as the lack of timely delivery of inputs), human risk (the shortage of available labor to harvest saffron, disease, and migration of young family members, and the theft of agricultural products and equipment), market risk (guaranteed sales, lack of equipment and facilities for packaging and bulk sales of the product, and arbitrary pricing), financial risks (lack of access to bank facilities, lack of liquidity, shortage of funds, lack of savings accounts to avoid selling the crop at a low price, and a short interval between receiving and repaying loans), natural risk (lack of government support and assistance for the sale and marketing of saffron at reasonable prices, absence of state-sponsored insurance, lack of communication network between saffron farmers at the local and regional level). The development of saffron production calls for efforts to eliminate the relevant risks.

Tour guides are considered as representatives of a country that interact directly with tourists. The abilities and expertise of tour guides, especially their geographic literacy, are one of great importance factor for the satisfaction of tourists. Tour guide Provide detailed information about destination for tourists, Tour guide is very important especially for European tourists who travel for the first time to Iran's tourism destination, in this research, the effect of tourism geographic literacy of tour guide on tourism satisfaction has been studied. Geographic literacy indicate to knowledge and skills related to the use of geographic information geographic literacy of tour guide is ability to understand, process, and utilize geospatial data such as locations and place attributes. Geographic literacy can improve our world understanding. Geographic skills allow tour guide to organize tour itinerary effectively. Geographic literacy of tour guide is a systematic view toward tourism destination, tourism attraction, events, situations, and places which turns understanding and comprehension of knowledge into skills. Tour geographic literacy is an important and indispensable ability for tourists when traveling. Tour guide with good geographic knowledge have successful travel. Some travel knowledge and skills, such as understanding of the local travel environment, map reading ability, and use of local transportation, tools are essential for tour guide, Travel guide knowledge refers to the extent of travel knowledge, include of dealing with documents, knowing local tourist attractions, restaurants, lodging, and so on. Travel geoformation processing can be defined as the tourist's ability to gather, interpret, and use travel geographic information for the trip. Information processing proceeds along with the systematic thinking route, and the attitude toward the tourism destination is more durable due to the detailed analysis. In the field of geography, geospatial recognition represents the tour guide ability to locate tourism attraction and places and features on a map, with its emphasis on map recognition. However, travel geospatial recognition involves both map skills and on-site geospatial recognition skills. Therefore, travel geospatial recognition can be defined as the tour guide spatial ability to recognize the tourism destination and its features, and orientation awareness, which can include such skills as reading travel maps, sensing direction, recognizing travel signs and indices, and visualizing routes as a map-like image between tourism attractions.

There purposes this paper is to study Literacy Impact of Tour Guides on the Satisfaction of Tourists and to develop a measurement scale of tour guide by employing quantitative methods and to examine the linkage between Literacy of tour Guides and its consequences. The present research is applied in terms of its purpose and in terms of research method, it is a descriptive survey. The statistical population of the study is European tourists in Tehran. Inferential analysis of the data was performed using the Cronbach's alpha coefficient. For determining the internal consistency of the questioner, the KMO and Bartlett test were used to determine the appropriateness of the sample size and the separation of the factors, and to determine the causal relationship between the variables, the structural equation modeling method was used. The conceptual model of the research is based on Chang et al. Chang et al examined the impact of the geographic tourism visitor's visibility, which has three dimensions of geographical recognition, geographic knowledge and information process, on the satisfaction of tourists. But the present study examines the geographic literacy of tour guides on tourism satisfaction.

this study, the effect of tourism geographic dimensions on satisfaction, perceived risk of European tourists from Tehran in terms of tour guides were studied. The finding of this research suggests that the geographic knowledge of the tour guide will affect the tourist's satisfaction, and reduce the tourist's risk involved and also reducing tourist hesitation and destination risk perception. Also, the findings suggest that the tour information process by tour guide influences the satisfaction of the tourist, the reduce risk involved also reducing tourists' concerns, Previous research also suggests that the process of geographic information such as the use of destination information may affect the satisfaction of tourists. The reason for the rejection of this hypothesis is weakness of communication of tour guide in providing accurate information for tourist. To help resolve this problem it is necessary for tour guide to improve their communication skills.

Very few studies have identified the construct and definition of tour guide. The results of this research recognized geographic knowledge; travel geoformation processing; and travel geospatial recognition. Furthermore, this research also evidenced that tour guide geography knowledge has a positive influence on tourist satisfaction, and has negative effects on tourist hesitation and destination risk perception, suggesting that tour guide geography knowledge is a critical construct in tourism that can impact tourists' psychological and behavioral outcomes. These findings extend the knowledge and theory of tourism research, and fill the research gap of geographic literacy in the field of tourism. Finally, this study also proposes some practical implications and suggestions for future research. With regard to travel geographic knowledge, our results showed that understanding the local travel information such as tourist spots, shopping information, culture, and so on was very important for tourists. However, past studies have found that many tourists do not have adequate local knowledge. So the role of tour guide have become so important. The tour guide is a valuable asset to tourism destination. Many European tourists tend to see their tour guide as the representative of the region or country they chose as a tourist destination. If the tour guide doesn’t have good knowledge and geographic literacy tourist become dissatisfied from travel to destination. Several implications are derived from this study. First, the tourism operators consider geographic literacy impact of tour guides on tourism satisfaction and conduct market segmentation and design different travel products according to the tourist geography literacy. At the same time, because improving tour guide literacy can lead to higher travel satisfaction, this offers destination managers and operators a new marketing direction. Finally, the tour geographic literacy scale can be used to assist for tourists enjoy tourism attraction.

Any imbalance in intra-city systems (urban spatial and urban areas) and external systems of the city (near and far-reaching districts of the city and region) causes its uncertainty and instability. As a result, estimating the risk and assessing the seismic vulnerability of a city is also considered as a major issue. The present study, with the developmental-applied and combination of field and library methodology and using the VIKOR method, has studied the issue in Ilam province. The results show that the cities of the province in terms of demographic density, literacy, etc. Each of them has an effective role in vulnerability, they can be effective in the damage caused by the earthquake. VIKOR and GIS models show that the regions in which these indicators are higher than other areas (surplus of defined standard) is not in the benefit of the region and if this surplus is in the benefit of the region. Statistically, the average VIKOR score was 0.125%. Though this amount expresses the situation inappropriately. But there are areas where VIKOR levels are much smaller than the average. Which includes the Dehloran, Ivan and Maleshahi cities

The method of the present research is descriptive-analytic and it is done with the aim of identifying and prioritizing of tourism risks. Research data were collected with the method of library as well as field method through the questionnaire. Content validity was used to assess the validity of the questionnaire. Also, Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was used to measure reliability that its measure of 0.76 has acceptable coefficient. In this regard, exploratory factor analysis was used to identify the risks inferred and Friedman statistical test was used to prioritize the identified risks.The research results show that indicator of economic and financial by mean rank 2.85 was located in the first rank and it has the highest probability of occurrence. Then, Indicator of facilities and services was located in the second rank with 2.48 mean, followed by indicator of safety and security in third rank with 2.08 mean.Also, indicator of hygiene and health with 1.77 meanand indicator of natural disasters with 1.74 mean were ranked in fourth and fifthy rating respectively.Finally, indicator of cultural and social with 1.26 mean was the least likely to occur and ranked sixth.At the end of this research, prioritizing the inferred risks from the viewpoint of tourists has been done

Bandar Abbas city has a special strategic position due to its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman.And it is the largest port in Iran, which shows the importance of this city. The present research is considered as applied (developmental) research and documentary (library), questionnaire (quantitative) and interview methods are used to collect information.The research method of this dissertation is descriptive-analytical (survey - case study). The FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) technique is also used to assess the risk of critical locations.Six of the vital infrastructures of Bandar Abbas include; Oil refinery, refinery, power plant, railway, airport and Shahid Rajaei port were assessed as key assets, the results showBandar Abbas Power Plant (Tavanir) with 8 points is in the first place, Bandar Abbas Water Refinery with 7.21 is in the second place and Bandar Abbas Oil Refinery with 6.89 is in the third place. In the threat and vulnerability section, missile attack (air and sea) was identified as the first risk of all selected assets except the refinery, the first risk of which is biological attacks. Finally, an operational solution to reduce the risk of selected key assets was presented.