جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « ardl method » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

According to the literature of institutionalism, institutional factors play an important role in the independence of the central bank. The aim of the current research is to investigate the direct and indirect impact of institutional factors on the independence of the central bank in Iran's economy. Therefore, using an econometric model based on the studies of Garriga and Rodrigues (2023) and Dimato et al. (2009), the effect of institutional factors on the independence of the central bank during the period of 1996-2021 has been investigated. Also, in this study, the interaction of the independent variables of the model has been investigated in order to analyze the indirect effects of institutional factors on the independence of the central bank. The results of the research show that although oil rent does not directly affect the independence of the central bank, it indirectly (through corruption and inflation) causes a decrease in the independence of the central bank, which indicates the weakness of the institutional quality and policies. Based on the findings of the present study, it is suggested that the interaction of institutional factors as well as the quality of institutional mechanisms should be considered in economic policies in order to achieve an independent central bank

One of the most important goals of governments in any economy is to control the income inequality situation, so that in every country, governments are trying to improve the conditions of income distribution according to the factors they have. One of the very important factors that affect income distribution is the shadow economy. As a factor that affects macroeconomic variables, the shadow economy also affects income distribution.Therefore, in this article, the impact of the size of the shadow economy on income inequality in the short and long term periods has been investigated using the panel data econometric method and in the period from 1366 to 1400 in Iran. The results show that the shadow economy has a positive effect (improvement of income distribution) on income distribution in the short term, but this effect is negative in the long term, in other words, the shadow economy has a negative effect on income distribution in the long term.

The subsidy is one of the vital policy tools adopted by the government. As one of the energy exporting countries, Iran carried out fundamental reforms and revised the provision of subsidies for essential goods, especially energy carriers, in 2010. Energy is one of the most important production inputs. Therefore, the price correction of energy carriers has a high sensitivity in the country's economy, especially in the industry sector. Since the highest output value of the industrial sector in Iran is related to large industrial workplaces, the effect of the increase in the price of energy carriers on the production function and labor and capital demand functions of the six industries with the highest output value and the highest value of fuel consumption during 1997-2019 was examined using the autoregressive distributed lag model in this study. Also, targeting energy subsidies has led to increased production in the industry of chemicals and chemical products in the long term. Therefore, the production of the chemicals industry and chemical products showed a more significant reaction to the increase in the price of energy carriers than the other industries examined above. As a result, policymakers should pay more attention to these industries than other industries.

Interest rates are one of the most effective channels of money transfer. Interest rates can potentially affect the economy as a whole by determining the level of many economic variables such as investment, capital flows, credit demand, bank profitability, liquidity and exchange rates. Since the profit curve can absorb and predict the future progress of the economy, it is expected that by creating the conditions for future expectations, it will affect the behavior and profit of the bank in creating more liquidity. Therefore, in this study, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to investigate the effect of interest rates on liquidity. The results showed that the variables of interest rates and capital have a positive and significant effect on liquidity, while inflation has a negative effect. Therefore, a change in bank interest rates will lack the necessary efficiency to stimulate the real sector of the economy. Determining bank interest rates without considering changes in inflation rates cannot explain why there is no savings in banks. In order for governments to be able to provide the central bank with the tools it needs to stimulate the real sector of the economy, it is essential that efforts be made to reduce economic risk in addition to empowering the central bank to rationalize bank interest rates. In this case, the central bank will be able to use bank interest rates as an efficient tool to manage liquidity and convert it into investment and production flows.

The development of the Internet and cyberspace has grown rapidly in recent years, and its infrastructure has been largely developed. One of the main problems in technology development is the replacement of technology with labor; Since this replacement can lead to a reduction in the employment rate on the one hand, and to the development of business and employment on the other, it must be examined whether the development of cyberspace leads to an increase or decrease in employment. Is it possible to design an employment strategy in cyberspace development whose first priority is employment development? Policies should be adopted in a way that does not only focus on consumption and infrastructure development, but also plans to take advantage of increased employment opportunities in the virtual or internet age. Therefore, to explain the positive impact of cyberspace on employment, using the combined index of cyberspace and the cost minimization model in the production function for the years 1372 to 1397 and using the ARDL method and in order to continue and develop the positive effects of cyberspace on employment, public strategies and cyberspace employment development strategies are presented. The results show that cyberspace with a coefficient of 0.11 and from last year with a coefficient of 0.04 has a positive effect on employment development and to continue and develop this impact, we must firstly rely on improving the internet and traditional business environment and secondly pursue the development of cyberspace with employment strategies.

Poverty reduction is one of the main goals of policies pursued by governments. At the same time, economic growth and a strong belief in growth along with justice have always been of interest to policymakers. In this regard, the concept of pro poor growth focuses on the interaction between three elements: growth, poverty and inequality. On the other hand, pro poor growth is affected by several factors including macroeconomic variables. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables including government expenditures, transfers, liquidity, openness, oil revenue and external debt on pro poor growth during the period of 1982-2015. For this aim, first, we calculate pro poor growth index and then by using the time series data of desired macroeconomic variables and by ARDL model we estimate that relationship. The results show that all macroeconomic variables, except transfers and openness, have a negative and significant effect. In other words, by increasing liquidity, external debt, oil revenues and government expenditure, the share of poor people from economic growth will be less than the rich. Therefore, it is suggested that the government should change the path of economic growth by improving infrastructure and increasing social spending in the field of education and health, as well as directing liquidity towards productive and employment activities and allocating oil revenues to improve the infrastructures so the benefits of the poor will be more than the rich from economic growth, and the goal of reducing poverty and inequality would be achieved. Also, in spite of the positive effect of transfers and the openness of the economy on pro poor growth, it is suggested that the accurate identification of poor people and the targeting of subsidies, as well as the removal of barriers of free trade and membership of the WTO, along with the establishment of appropriate infrastructures and institutions, will increase the effectiveness of these macroeconomic variables.

Almost all human economic activities affect directly or indirectly on environment and ecological system, Corruption for reasons including inadequate regulatory system, lack of respect for law, weak democracy, and equality of individuals against law, lack of accountability on environmental issues. Because of the importance of corruption role in environmental degradation, in this study is tried to evaluate of direct and indirect effects of corruption on CO2 emissions as an indicator of pollution in the country be paid. Therefore, has been used of annual data 1984-2015 for Iran and using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results of estimating direct effects model showed a positive and significant relationship corruption with CO2 emissions in the long run. And in indirect effects model corruption relationship with per capita income (as the intermediary channel) is negative and significant. Prominent issue in the study is high share direct effects of corruption on pollution compared to indirect effects. Therefore, it is recommended that authorities have more supervisory in control corruption.

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables on Iran life insurance demand in the period . We used ARDL Procedure to estimate the research model.The results show that the price of insurance and life expectancy in long-term has significantly positive effect on the demand for life insurance and financial development and inflation expectations in long-term has significant negative effect on the demand for life insurance.

Public pricing of products is one of the most important economicalissues, since any changes in the pricing, affects both the welfare ofconsumers and quantity of goods and Services which are produced.In this paper which is done for natural gas pricing in Iran, the purpose is giving a price that the government can consider it as a suitable choice for using in subsidies targeting project. These prices have two advantages: first, they try to maximum the social economical welfare (summation of producer and consumer surplus) second, this method solve the problem that the producer has in covering their costs (by marginal cost pricing) because of increasing returns to scale.This paper deals with the optimal gas pricing in household sector in Iran by the Ramsey method of pricing.In this regard we have used fuzzy regression (because of its accuracy and devoid of classic regression restrictions) and the data from 1977 to 2011 for estimating production function and returns to scale in natural gas production side. Also for estimating demand function and elasticity we have used ARDL method and data from 1350 to 1389. The results shows that the current prices aren’t optimum and despite implementation of subsidies targeting project the prices are low.

The main purpose of this article is to evaluate the effectiveness of the government quality level on efficiency of its size. For that, at first, government quality based on Kaufman and others (2006) approach, has been categorized into four levels: Very good, good, poor and very poor. Then, a Cobb-Douglas production function has been estimated using the data period of 1986 tell 2012 and using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The results show that, various levels of government quality have had different effects on economic growth and also on the efficiency of the government size. It means, when the government quality is very good, the economic growth will increase faster and under this condition, increasig the government size in long and short run, have more positive effect on economic growth. These findings reflect the need for paying more attention on planning for improvement of the government quality by relevant policies.

Money demand in dollarized economies appears to be highly unstable and the model making it very difficult to forecast. This paper utilizes cointegrating analysis and application «Autoregressive Distributed Lag Method» (ARDL)، the money demand function measured of the Iran dollarized economy. The study findings represent a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between real money demand and variables، GDP، the exchange rate on the informal market، inflation and ratchet. The results of this study indicate the occurrence dollarization and irreversibility of it’s in the Iranian economy، because coefficients for the exchange rate and ratchet variable are negative and significant in the demand for money.

Iranian economy in recent years has experienced several currency shocks; on the other hand، slight changes in dollarization would cause huge exchange rate movements. In this paper، using “Autoregressive Distributed Lag Method” (ARDL)، the money demand function is estimated to check the dollarization of the Iranian economy. Then، the volume of “Foreign Currency Deposits” (FCD) in the banking system، using Kamin and Erickson (2003) method has calculated and we get to dollarization index. The results show that the Iranian economy is dollarized and the dollarization Index in 1390 and 1391 is respectively 0. 77 and 0. 81.

Raising saving, level removal of financial resource obstacles to investment and increase in productivity allare require the financial structure reform and banking system improvement. This study, investigate the impact of financial development composition Index on economic growth in Iran by use of composition approach, using time series data 1352-86, and econometric models with ARDL and ECM method, test and analysis Cobb-Douglas production function for Iran. The results show that economic growth doesnt react to financial development changes (in the short time and long run). It is necessary, to harmonize financial sector development in finance and money services sector with macro economic objectives, while adjusting economic policies to rising financial and money service sector efficiency.

In this paper, demand liability insurance in Iran is estimated.Thus the importance and effect of variables such as national income per capita, Inflation rate and compensation liability insurance per capita , on demand of Liability insurance in Iran have been measured. Data is including all provinces and territories time period is 1386-1357(1978-2117). According to results the relationship between national income per capita and demand of liability insurance is positive and significant. With an increasing percentage of national income per capita, Liability insurance demand increasing 1/6 percent.This means that the liability insurance is luxury goods. Also relationship between per capita compensation and Liability insurance demand is positive and significant. With an increasing percentage of per capita compensation, Liability insurance demand increasing 1/24 percent. Furthermore, relationship between inflation and demand for insurance liability is negative and not significant.