دکتر محمد عبدی سیدکلایی

Based on empirical studies, in addition to the natural resources curse and the negative impact of natural resources income on the economic growth and development in resource-rich countries, some of these countries face various other issues. These issues include political and social problems, high levels of poverty and inequality, low levels of education, economic growth fluctuations, low institutional quality, and political instability (Sachs & Warner, 2001). In this context, one of the challenges in resource-rich countries, especially in developing countries, when compared to countries without natural resources, is the low level of financial development. Financial development has failed to play an effective role in the economic growth of these countries (Albadawi and Soto, 2012; Gelb, 2010; Samargandi et al., 2014; Frenkel, 2012).  On the other hand, considering studies such as those by Pendergas et al., (2011), in most resource-rich countries that have managed to overcome the resource curse, a reasonable level of financial development is observed. Therefore, the first question that arises is whether there is a relationship between financial development and the abundance of natural resources in these countries. Given the role of the financial system in the optimal allocation of resources, what impact will the financial system have on the abundance of natural resources in resource-rich countries?Iran is a country abundant in oil resources that has struggled to overcome the challenges and obstacles on the path to development, such as unemployment and economic growth fluctuations. Issues related to natural resources still persist in this country. Given the importance of the relationship between the financial sector and the abundance of natural resources for necessary policymaking on the path to economic growth and development, this study aims to examine and investigate the relationship between the abundance of natural resources and financial development in Iran using various financial development indicators and different econometric methods.

In order to investigate and empirically analyze the long-term and short-term dynamic relationship between variables, this research employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounding test approach. The ARDL Bounding test method was developed by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001). This method offers advantages over other conventional and previous cointegration methods, such as the Johansen and Toda-Yamamoto approaches. Some of its advantages include applicability regardless of considering the order of cointegration between variables, its ability to handle cases where variables are I (0) or I (1), suitability for limited sample sizes, obtaining efficient estimates without the risk of over-specification of the long-run model relationships, and presenting a reduced-form single-equation form rather than a systemic one for the long-run relationship.The ARDL model estimates the short-term and long-term linear relationship between variables and cannot estimate non-linear relationships between the variables. Therefore, in this study, considering the possibility of a non-linear and asymmetric relationship between resource rents and financial development, the non-linear ARDL model, developed by Shin et al. in 2014, was employed to estimate the model. The NARDL model is a specific form of the ARDL model developed by Pesaran et al., (2001). It allows for the investigation of asymmetry in the long-term and short-term relationships between variables. The advantage of the NARDL method over other cointegration techniques is its superior performance in models with limited observations. Furthermore, this approach is applicable when the explanatory variables in the model are endogenous (Alam and Quazy, 2003).

  Results indicate that impact of natural resource abundance on the banking development index is not significant in the short term, while the lagged values of natural resources have a positive and significant impact on the banking development index in Iran. Considering the long-term estimation of the model, it can be concluded that the effect of natural resource abundance or, in other words, resource rents on banking sector development in Iran is positive and significant. Based on this result, the hypothesis of resource curse in the banking sector during the examined period in Iran is confirmed. Beck (2011) found that in natural resources rich countries, banks have better capitalization and profitability, but they provide fewer credits to the private sector and have less inclination towards financial development. Therefore, it appears that due to the bank-oriented nature of the financial system in Iran and the substantial injection of oil resources into banks, it has managed to foster the development of this sector.The results of estimating the stock market development model indicate that natural resource abundance has a positive impact on stock market development in both the short and long terms, although it is not statistically significant. Therefore, it is not possible to make a clear statement about the presence or absence of the resource curse in the stock market. Based on studies like Asif et al. (2020) and Ali et al. (2022), the inclusion of various companies related to natural resources in the stock market can help finance these companies in their high-cost extraction and refining operations. Consequently, it can create various job opportunities and boost economic activities, leading to economic growth and development. Therefore, income derived from natural resources through an efficient stock market can contribute to economic growth.The impact of natural resource abundance on the overall financial development index in the long term is positive but not statistically significant. Therefore, the hypothesis of the resource curse in Iran is not confirmed. Considering that the Iranian financial system is influenced by the banking system, and resource rents have been confirmed in the banking sector, this result can be justified as indicative of the greater flow of oil revenues into the Iranian banking system. However, this result may also indicate the dominant role of the government in the allocation of natural resource revenues and the weakness of the private sector and the capital market in the proper allocation of these revenues. The results of estimating the overall financial development index, which is obtained by combining stock market development and banking development, highlight the importance of financial integration and the utilization of the entire financial system's capacity to transform resource rents into a resource blessing.Top of Form.

Based on the empirical results, the hypothesis of the presence of resource cures in the banking sector in Iran was confirmed, given the significant positive relationship between banking sector development and natural resource abundance during the study period. However, regarding the resource curse in the stock market, it is not possible to make a clear statement due to the insignificance of the coefficients.According to the estimation of the NARDL model and the significant positive impact of positive shocks from natural resource rents on the banking development index on one hand, and the negative (although insignificant) impact of negative shocks on the other hand, the results of the NARDL model can be seen as confirming the findings of the ARDL model. Therefore, the hypothesis of resource blessing in the banking sector is cautiously confirmed based on this model.In the case of the stock market, the NARDL results also do not provide conclusive evidence regarding the hypothesis of a resource curse in Iran's stock market due to the insignificance of the coefficients related to resource rents in the estimation of the stock market development index.The results of the NARDL estimation in the overall financial development index model indicate that positive shocks from resource rents have a significant positive impact on the overall financial development, while negative shocks have a negative impact, although they are not statistically significant. Considering these results, the dominant role of the banking system in Iran's financial system is confirmed, and thus, special attention from the government to the capital market as one of the most effective components of the financial system seems necessary.Top of Form

While cryptocurrency trading is often based on various analyses and strategies, studies show that a significant portion of traders make decisions driven by emotions. This study evaluated the impact of investor sentiment on Bitcoin returns from 2019 to 2020 using daily time-series data. We employed Vector Auto-Regression (VAR), Impulse Response Functions (IRF), Variance Decomposition (VD), and Cointegration tests to analyze the relationship between sentiment indices, including the Fear and Greed index, Google Search index, Investor Happiness index, Bitcoin Trading Volume index, and American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) index, and the Euro-Dollar price, gold price, and S&P 500 index with Bitcoin returns. The findings indicated a negative relationship between the Fear and Greed index, Euro-Dollar price, gold price, Google Search index, and S&P 500 with Bitcoin returns. Conversely, there was a positive relationship between the AAII index, Investor Happiness index, and Bitcoin Trading Volume index with Bitcoin returns.

The purpose of the current research is to explain the effect of inflation tax on economic welfare in symmetrical and asymmetrical approach. In this way, firstly, economic welfare was calculated using the composite index of welfare based on four dimensions of average flow of consumption, wealth or accumulation of production reserves, income inequality and economic security over five decades. The results of the data description show that after the war and in the 1990s with the adoption of policies for the development of the country, the economic prosperity has increased, and this trend has continued in the 2000s due to the single rate of the exchange rate and creation of currency reserve account. In the 2010s, economic prosperity has decreased due to the intensification of economic sanctions and the increase of inflation and recession. In the next part of the research, the symmetric and asymmetric estimation of the model based on the Linear and Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was carried out in the period of 1971-2021. The long-term results of estimating the model in a linear (symmetric) approach indicate that the inflation tax has a negative effect on economic welfare. In the non-linear (asymmetric) approach, this reverse effect was also confirmed, in such a way that increases in the inflationary tax affect economic well-being more than decreases in it. As expected, inflation has a negative and asymmetric effect on economic welfare, so that the inverse effect of increases in inflation on well-being is far more than decreases in it. Another finding is that unemployment has a negative effect and per capita income has a positive effect on economic welfare.

The topic of welfare and its improvement is an important issue in different societies. According to the existing literature, there are multiple factors that affect the welfare status of countries, one of which is production and its fluctuations (boom and recession). Considering the important impacts of production on the economic welfare of the country, the present study aims to explain the impact of production and, more precisely, that of increases (economic boom) and decreases (economic recession) in production on welfare in Iran. Indeed, this analysis deals with production with and without oil. The main question in the present study is whether there is a significant difference between the impacts of economic boom (increases in production with or without oil) and economic recession (decreases in production with or without oil) on welfare in the Iranian economy.

Most of the models in econometrics are based on linear (symmetric) models. In a symmetric estimate of the production effects (with or without oil), if economic welfare increases by 1 unit with an increase in production, then economic welfare will decrease by 1 unit with a decrease in production. However, what actually happens may not be this way, and the effect of increases in production (economic prosperity) on welfare may be different from the effect of decreases in production (recession). Therefore, the focus of a research model is to distinguish the effect of increases in production (with or without oil) from the effect of decreases in it. The model used in this study is based on the one proposed by Shin et al. (2014). That study discusses the issue of the asymmetrical coefficient of an influential factor and its effect on the dependent variable in the conditions of prosperity and recession. Shin’s team introduces a model called Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) regression model. In the present study, among the various welfare indices, the IEWB index has been considered as a measure of economic welfare. Multiple variables are also used to calculate this index. The IEWB index considers economic welfare as a function of the dimensions of effective per capita consumption flow, net social accumulation of wealth and resource-generating sources, economic inequality, and insecurity. In this regard, weights are considered for each of these dimensions in a special way. Therefore, the weights assigned to each dimension will be different based on different observations. The spatial scope of this study includes Iran, and the temporal scope is from 1971 to 2021.

The movement trend is an indicator of economic well-being, showing that the index followed a downward trend after the revolution until the end of the war. After the war, the index had an upward trend with a gentler slope compared to the years before the revolution. It reached its highest level in 2017 and then started to decline again. This decrease is due to the increase in the sanctions on the Iranian economy, which led to a decrease in oil revenues, a decrease in economic growth, and an increase in the inflation rate, resulting in a decline in economic well-being. The results of the estimate are as follows:- In the short term, the effect of oil economic prosperity on well-being is almost more than 2.5 times the effect of economic prosperity without oil.- In the short term, the effect of oil economic recession on well-being is greater than the effect of economic recession without oil.- In the short term, the asymmetry in the impact of economic prosperity and recession (both with and without oil) on well-being is confirmed.- In the long term, considering the direct effect of economic prosperity and recession (with and without oil) on well-being, the asymmetry of production effect (with and without oil) is also confirmed. But, unlike the case in the short term, in the long term, the effect of economic recession without oil on well-being is greater than the effect of oil economic recession.- In the long term, the effect of oil economic recession on well-being is more than twice the effect of oil economic prosperity, and the effect of economic recession without oil on well-being is almost 5 times the effect of economic prosperity without oil.

Conclusions and policy implications: 

Based on the results of this research about the impact of economic prosperity and recession on the well-being in Iran, it is suggested that, first, the government should create the necessary infrastructure to improve the people's well-being so that the prosperity periods can be prolonged. Second, economic policymakers should adopt supportive policies, especially for producers, to improve the country's well-being during recessions. Third, it seems that, if the Iranian economy moves towards non-oil dependence, in times of economic recession, there will be a need for stronger welfare policies by the government to compensate for the lost well-being. If there is more extensive support for non-oil sectors, they may be able to contribute to increased well-being during prosperous times.

Previously, several studies have investigated the relationship between inflation and income inequality. But the main purpose of this article is to show that the unpredictability of inflation or the so-called uncertainty of inflation can also cause income inequality, because the weak sections of the society make wrong economic decisions due to not having capital market tools at their disposal when the economic situation is turbulent. In this study, the effect of inflation uncertainty on income inequality in Iran in the period of 1971-2021 was investigated. First, inflation uncertainty was calculated using the GARCH model and inflation data, and then the effect of inflation uncertainty on income inequality was estimated in the form of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL). The results indicate that in linear ARDL, inflation uncertainty does not have a significant effect on income inequality in the long run, but in NARDL, in the long term, inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on income inequality. When uncertainty or inflation fluctuations decrease, income inequality in Iran decreases. This point is the main finding of this study. On the other hand, the increase in uncertainty has not had a significant effect on income inequality.

Economic complexity is one of the criteria for measuring the knowledge-based economy of a country. Several studies have shown that improving the economic complexity index leads to sustainable economic growth and improved welfare. Therefore, policy makers tend to place the development and progress of the country in the path of knowledge-based economy and production of complex products. But the channel of influence of complexity on the economy of a country is questionable. Identifying this channel can lead to the focus of development policies. The hypothesis investigated in this research is the effectiveness of economic complexity on the field of factory activities. In the literature review, it was found that the relationship between these two variables is not predetermined. To test the hypothesis, a statistical sample including 46 countries has been selected for a period of 31 years ending in 2020. The PMG model has been used for data processing. The result of the estimation of the model shows that the increase in the added value of factory industries is one of the consequences of the improvement of economic complexity. This finding can help to set development policies.

Well-being is considered as the most important index of happiness and comfort, which is affected by many factors. In this study, the focus is on the exchange rate gap (Dollar to Rial) as a factor affecting economic well-being. In order to explain the effect of exchange rate gap on economic well-being, first economic well-being was calculated using the composite Index of Economic Well Being (IEWB) during the years 1978-2021 and then the research model was estimated with the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. The calculation of the well-being index indicates that economic well-being had a declining trend after the revolution until the end of the war, and then increased with a gentle slope after the war. The increasing trend continued until 2017 and it decreased again due to reasons such as the intensification of sanctions and the resulting decrease in oil revenues. The findings in the estimation of the model show that the exchange rate gap is associated with a negative (reverse) effect on economic well-being and also has an asymmetric effect. The results show that the exchange rate gap, in addition to the negative effects it has on welfare, also causes rent and corruption. In addition to the negative effects it has on welfare, the exchange rate gap also causes rent and corruption. With more research on the exchange rate gap, policy makers should adopt policies that will reduce the gap or related corruption.

The study of the impact of monetary policy on macroeconomics has a special place in the study of monetary economics. Meanwhile, after the global financial crisis, some studies have addressed the importance of uncertainty in the effectiveness of monetary policy. Given that Iran's economy is subject to numerous internal and external shocks, it is important to be aware of the role of uncertainty in the impact of monetary policy. Accordingly, the present study uses the Threshold Vector Autoregressive (TVAR) approach to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy on inflation and economic growth in Iran, considering the uncertainty during the years 2004-2018. The results showed that the effect of monetary policy on economic growth is strongly dependent on monetary policy uncertainty. As the uncertainty intensifies, the impact of monetary policy diminishes and is unpredictable. At the same time, the impact of inflation does not depend on the state of policy uncertainty. The analysis of the results provided important policy implications

Tax avoidance reduces the outflow of cash from the company to the government, which from the past to the present is considered a value for shareholders. Therefore, considering such a necessity, the present study, in order to help tax administrators, examines the effects of investment inefficiency in the labor force on corporate tax avoidance activities for a sample of 64 export companies in Iran during the period of 2009 to 2019. For this purpose, in two stages, Dynamic Panel Data method and Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimator were used; in this way, first, the inefficiency of investment in labor was estimated and then its effect on corporate tax avoidance was estimated. The results of estimating the research model indicate the direct effect of investment inefficiency in the workforce on corporate tax avoidance. In addition, the results showed that the market value and size of the company are associated with a direct and inverse effect on tax avoidance, respectively. Thus, increasing ambiguity, a weaker control environment, and a reduction in expected cash flows due to inefficient investment in the workforce provide opportunities for the company's manager to increase tax avoidance, and tax policymakers need to pay special attention to this issue.

Banking tension is one of the major problems in developed and developing countries nowadays. Therefore, researchers and policymakers pay decisive attention to the probability of banking tension. Meanwhile, the debate over the impact of income distribution on the banking sector and the occurrence of the banking crisis has escalated, so that in recent years, it seems that income inequality can be the cause of financial crises. Accordingly, the present study has designed a stress index for the banking system of Iran's economy. To study the effect of income inequality on the probability of banking tensions in Iran, quarterly data 1999:1-2020:4 and Markov rotational model were used. The results showed that the banking system in Iran's economy had been in a state of high tension for some periods. Finally, by estimating the Probit model, it was found that with the unequal distribution of income in Iran's economy, the probability of tension in the banking sector increases. In addition, inflation and real interest rate have a positive effect, and economic growth has a negative effect, on the likelihood of banking tension.

Exchange rate is a variable transferring international economic shocks to domestic economy. In countries like Iran which are experiencing a high inflation and whose GDP as well as consumption expenditures are mostly dependent on imports and foreign capital flows, exchange rate changes and its effects need to be carefully monitored by policy makers and economic researchers. Considering the importance of inflation in the theoretical discussions and the high inflation rate in some developing countries, the effect of exchange rate on inflation has attracted economists interested in monetary issues and international economics.Nonlinear behavior in the exchange rate effect on inflation can provide false estimates of exchange rate coefficient when the econometric model is estimated linearly. In such a circumstance, we can accommodate cases when the inflation condition and its rate affect economic factors in response to an exchange rate shock. Indeed, domestic prices may not be sensitive to an exchange rate shock due to a low and stable inflation. However, they may respond wildly to a similar shock when inflation is above some significant thresholds.Although studies have mostly focused on measuring the extent of exchange rate effect on price levels, we believet that investigating the possible existence of one or more thresholds in exchange rate effect is important, because the reaction of monetary policymakers may somehow depend on the extent of exchange rate effect with respect to one (or more) threshold value(s). For instance, policymakers might not take care of the exchange rate fluctuations below a certain level, but as soon as it crosses such a level, they believe it damages the economy and the country welfare, thus triggering some intervention in the currency market.

A reason for the non-linear response of inflation is the non-linear nature of exchange rate trend. In fact, geometrically, among all the time paths of exchange rate, the probability of a linear path between the two time points is very weak. The effect consequence of all determinants of the exchange rate is displayed in its changes. Here are two important points to note. First, the cross-effects of exchange rate determinants can influence the impact of each determinant. Second, the importance of currency, especially in developing countries, and its key role between the foreign exchange and financial markets, has made the exchange rate an intelligent variable, which corrects mistakes at the next rate through the learning process. Hence, the course of exchange rate over time is expected to be nonlinear.The purpose of the present paper is to the test a nonlinear model estimating the response of inflation to real effective exchange rate in Iran. In order to examine threshold effects of exchange rate on inflation in Iran, following Posedel & Tica (2009), pattern was used:where inflation π is a function of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). The variable  is a dummy variable:  if the REER () is equal or bigger than the threshold () and  if the REER () is smaller than threshold ().

Finding based on time series data for the period 1971-2017 and Threshold Regression (TR) model indicates that real effective exchange rate of 6160.27 Rials has been applied as a threshold value. In other words, based on the above threshold value, the estimated model shows the exchange rate coefficient has increased somewhat from the first to the second regime.

Considering the fact that preserving the value of the national currency is one of the most important tasks of central banks and to control inflation, it seems necessary to give the due attention to exchange rate and its threshold impacts when planning, designing and implementing monetary and exchange policies. The results of this study suggests a policy guideline, namely, that, in order to limit the damaging effects of inflation on the economy and household welfare, monetary policymakers in Iran must restrain the foreign exchange shocks.

In the present study, an attempt has been made to test the type and effectiveness of energy consumption from underground economy. For this purpose, initially the volume of underground economy was estimated based on Tanzi approach and using data and information in the period 1978-2019. Then, in order to study and experimentally analyze the effects of the underground economy and other variables on energy consumption in the Iranian economy. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) was used. Findings from estimating the symmetric (linear) model in the long run show that the underground economy is not associated with a significant effect on energy consumption, but nonlinear estimation indicates the asymmetric effect of the underground economy on energy consumption. In a way that increases in the underground economy are not associated with a significant effect on energy consumption and reductions have the indirect effect and with a one percent decrease in the volume of the underground economy, energy consumption increases by 0.31 percent. In both symmetric and asymmetric model, real energy prices have an adverse effect on energy consumption. Urbanization rates are also expected to have a direct effect on energy consumption. Based on the results, it is suggested that policymakers try to reduce the volume of the underground economy by adopting appropriate policies and promoting the level of economic transparency. It is also suggested to pay attention to the asymmetric effect of this factor on energy consumption in energy pricing.

Since income inequality can affect individuals’ lives economically, socially, and environmentally, analyzing variables influencing income inequality is of great importance. Considering the fact that studies in Iran underestimate the role of the asymmetric macroeconomic instability on income inequality, this study attempts to analyze the asymmetric effect of macroeconomic instability on income inequality in Iran. To this aim, a non-linear autoregressive distributed lags model has been used over the period 1971-2018. The results indicate that in both symmetric and asymmetric models, macroeconomic instability has a direct effect on income distribution. It means that based on the asymmetric model, increases in macroeconomic instability raise the income inequality (unfavorable effect), and decreases in it reduce the income inequality (favorable effect). In terms of effect size, decreases in macroeconomic instability affect income inequality more than increases in it. In addition, in both asymmetric and symmetric models, an increase in direct tax or energy price reduces the income inequality, while an increase in indirect tax raises income inequality. Furthermore, the Kuznets hypothesis is not rejected in this study.

The value added of manufacturing activities has positive effects and side effects on the national economy. Improving productivity, increasing the complexity of economy and strengthening capital accumulation are among these consequences. Therefore, in some studies, the role of manufacturing has been interpreted as a growth engine. In addition, improving the economic conditions and per capita incomes usually increase the share of household expenditures in high-tech industrial products. This will increase the demand for factory products and possibly increase the activity of manufactures. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the value added induced by the activity of manufacturing industries and economic growth among different countries using PVAR model. The limitation of having a consistent set of data has reduced the number of sample countries to 21. The data belongs to the years 1990-2020. The average share of manufacturing in the total production of the selected countries is 15% and the average economic growth in these countries is about 2%. The result of the study, the stability of which has also been confirmed, does not rule out the existence of a simultaneous and reciprocal relationship between the two main variables of the research. In case of a positive 10% shock in the value added of manufacturing, the economic growth of the selected countries of this study will increase by 1% after 7 years and in case of a positive 10% shock in the economic growth, the activity of manufacturing will increase by about 0.5% after 7 years. In other words, the effect of manufacturing on the economic growth is greater than the effect of the economic growth on factory activity.

Achieving sustainable economic development depends on economic growth and financial sector development in one country. Given the capital market in Iran, financing of various economic sectors is mainly done by the banking system. Banks are influenced by their environmental conditions and their lending behavior is often influenced by macroeconomic factors such as GDP, employment levels, inflation and exchange rates. Hence, banks adjust their lending behavior in response to these symptoms. Positive (negative) signs encourage banks to lend more (less). Therefore, identifying the factors affecting on granting credits in the banking system is very important.In this regard, the present study investigates the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on credits of specialized banks in Iran. In this way, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and seasonal data of 2000: 4-2017: 4 were used.  The results show that growth of credits ratio to bank deposits in confronting with exchange rate shocks, initially increases but decreases over a period. Response of growth of credits ratio in the face of inflation shock and GDP growth is negative and positive respectively. Variance analysis table showed that GDP growth rate has the most power to explain growth of credits ratio changes. The results confirm the research hypothesis. Because, the growth of credits ratio granted in the face of the shocks of exchange rate volatility initially increases and then, decreases after a period.

The relationship between economic growth and inflation is one of the long-standing issues in macroeconomics, which is theoretically and politically confronted with many controversies. This is especially important for the Iran's economy, which seeks to achieve price stability and accelerate economic growth.  In this regard, the present study has used continuous wavelet transformation to provide a new insight into the relationship between economic growth and inflation with time-frequency analysis in 1369:2–1397:2. The results show that in the long run (more than 4 years), an increase (decrease) in economic growth is accompanied by a decrease (increase) in inflation. In addition, the increase in economic growth has caused inflationary pressures in limited form and in short run (1380-1383). Therefore, it is recommended that policy makers focus more on economic growth in the long run.

In today's complex world, the financial system plays an important role in the stability, economic growth and development of countries. Financial repression is a set of formal policies, laws and regulations and informal controls imposed by governments on the financial sector that deviates the financial sector prices (interest rates and exchange rates) from its equilibrium values, and it prevents financial institutions from operating at their maximum capacity. Financial repression directly and indirectly affects the activities of banks. First, financial repression has reduced the deposits of economic agents in banks and has a negative effect on banks' incomes by reducing banks' lending capacity; Second, as capital accumulation decreases, and consequently, economic growth reduction, banks' income from lending facilities will decrease. In this survey, the impact of financial repression on the profitability of banks in Iran during the period 2011-2017 is investigated using Generalized Method of Moments-System (GMM-SYS). The results show that financial repression adversely affects banks' profit margin. So that, banks' profit margin is reduced to 0.02 units by increasing one indicator unit for financial repression. The results show that financial repression reduces the grant power of banks' facilities, by reducing the deposit of economic agents. As a result, it indirectly reduces banks' income from granting facilities.

Philips curve studies are one of the major issues of macroeconomics and have long been tested in empirical studies. Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve developed by Galí and Gertler, generally believes that in the short-run there is a trade-off between inflation and excess demand due to nominal rigidities, while inflation in the long run is constant at the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU). By contrast, Gordon in his triangle model assumes the NAIRU to be variable over time. In this regard, the present study, using by Time-Varying Parameter approach tries to create a new insight into the validity of the Philips curve in the Iran's economy. In this way, the data for the period 1960-2016 have been used. Given the conditions of the Iran's economy, the coefficients were estimated at six time points. The results show that the Phillips curve parameters in the Iran's economy are not stable. So that the share of forward-looking expectations in this instability is significant. The coefficients obtained for the output gap showed that in the most years the slope of the Philips curve in the Iran's economy has been positive, and its validity cannot be generally confirmed. Accordingly, it is impossible to make a definite statement about the Phillips curve subordinate form.

The provision of social justice and the elimination of poverty and deprivation through the creation of a balance in the distribution of income and wealth among the people is taken into consideration a Long ago time. Meanwhile, two categories of economic growth and fair distribution of income, which are among the main economic issues, are controversial. In the theoretical foundations of the conventional economy, growth is prior on the equal distribution of income. Accordingly, in the current study, these two issues will be tested for selected Islamic countries during the years 2012-2016. The results show that there is a two-way causal relationship between economic growth and income distribution. By analyzing the impulse response function, it was found that improvement in income distribution situation leads to a positive response from economic growth. Nevertheless, the positive shocks of economic growth make the distribution of income more inappropriate. Therefore, the interaction between economic growth and inequality of income in Islamic countries is contrary to Islamic teachings.

Since some raw materials, semi manufactured, intermediate and capital goods in agricultural sector are imported, the exchange rate fluctuations can affect the cost price of products in this sector. Recently, we are facing considerable fluctuations in exchange rate that has an important impact on all sectors including the agriculture. As a result of an increase in import prices in agricultural raw materials, the exchange rate fluctuates. In other words, this relationship is strengthened by lower domestic supply due to the stimulation of the exports of agricultural products induced by an increase in exchange rate. The present study deals with the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on agricultural price index in Iran using MGARCH method. The results show that the past shocks of exchange rate have a positive impact on agriculture price index at the 1% significance level. Moreover, despite the fact that the current fluctuations of agriculture price index do not relate to its past fluctuations, the past fluctuations of exchange rate have a positive impact on current fluctuations of exchange rate.

The impact of exchange rate changes on prices called "Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT)" is an important issue in economics. Changes in the exchange rate can affect agricultural product prices through the import prices of raw materials. Also, the dependency of the agricultural exports on the exchange rate can accelerate this relationship. Bearing in mind the strategic position of agricultural products, dealing with the above issue should be highly regarded by the agricultural sector policymakers. The purpose of the present paper is to study the impact of ERPT on the implicit price index of Iran's agriculture sector. It also deals with the possibility of any threshold value for the exchange rate from 1971-2014 .To do so, using time series data from the Central Bank of Iran, Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (M-GARCH) and Threshold Regression (TR) models have been estimated. The estimation results indicate that the past shocks of nominal exchange rate had a positive impact on the agriculture implicit price index. Also, the findings of the threshold regression estimation show that applying ERPT to implicit price index of agriculture products revealed a threshold value of 9226 Rials. In other words, an increase in the exchange rate higher than the threshold level will cause a much higher increase in the implicit price index of agriculture products in Iran.