زهرا دهقان شبانی

The housing sector is one of the important economic sectors that, in addition to consumer demand, also faces demand from speculators due to its high capital return rate and low risk level. Speculators, motivated by the desire to profit from future price increases, refrain from offering their houses for sale, resulting in a housing vacancy. The presence of vacant houses reduces the housing supply and can lead to the formation of a housing price bubble. Imposing taxes on vacant houses is one of the government's tools to address this issue. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of taxes on vacant houses on the housing price bubble in the city of Shiraz.

In this research, an agent-based model is used, considering four active agents in the housing market: sellers, buyers (including sellers and buyers with personal consumption and speculative motivations), developer, and real estate agencies, to investigate the dynamic processes of the housing market. To forecast the housing prices in Shiraz over an eight-year period, statistics and information by the beginning of 2022 have been incorporated into the model, and three different percentages of speculative buyers, including 30%, 50%, and 70% of the total buyers, along with different tax rates of 10%, 15%, 20%, and 25% have been considered.

The results of the research show that by applying a tax rate of 10%, if 70% of buyers are speculators, the highest growth rate of the housing price bubble was observed; that the decreasing growth rate was equal to 18%, that is, with application of tax on empty houses, the housing price bubble of Shiraz city in 2022 to the end of 2031 decreased by almost 19%, and after that the application of the tax rate of 15% in these conditions was approximately 17% which reduced the housing price bubble. But when the number of regular buyers is more than speculative buyers (30% of buyers are speculative), the application of different tax rates on vacant houses shows the least reduction effect on the housing price bubble. Therefore, when 70% of the buyers in the market are present in the market with the motive of personal consumption, the number of transactions is low. Since ordinary buyers will re-enter the market with a slight probability, and the majority of transactions are made by the 30% of buyers who are speculative, so applying the tax on vacant houses in the first year will cause a number of speculater to leave the market and the number of transactions will be less than before the tax was applied. In fact, mobilisation of the current stock of housing due to the tax may not have been high enough to affect prices which is consistent with Sego (2019).
Furthermore, the results indicate that increasing the tax rate on vacant houses does not necessarily lead to a further reduction of housing price bubble. When more than half of the housing market is in the hands of speculators, their power in transactions would be greater, and the increase in tax rate in the form of an increase in price will intensify the housing price bubble which could mean more transactions between traders. In fact, traders add tax to the price of the property, and increasing tax rates, in return worsens the bubble. So, here selecting the optimal tax rate becomes critically important. When less than half of the housing market is in the hands of speculators, the power of speculators will decrease as a result, which leads to further weakening of the price bubble. However, to a lesser extent when more than half of the market is in the hands of speculators, the price bubble will decrease.

The research results indicate that the implementation of different tax rates, despite varying numbers of speculators, can lead to a reduction in the housing price bubble in the city of Shiraz, although the effectiveness may vary under different conditions. Moreover, it can create an appropriate income for the government, which can reduce the class gap by allocating and optimally directing the resulting resources towards the supply of housing for low-income groups. But the government should be careful in choosing the tax rate. It is necessary to set the tax rate on empty houses in such a way that renting the house or offering it in the market is more economical than keeping it empty by traders. In addition to the tax rate, choosing the tax base is also crucial. As mentioned in the text of the research, some countries consider the value of the property as the tax base instead of the rental income, or a fixed annual tax is collected

The aim of this study analyses the spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure on industrial concentration in the provinces of Iran. More specifically, it examined the direct, indirect (spatial spillover), and total effects of infrastructure on the industrial concentration of the provinces. To this end, the econometric model design and the maximum likelihood were used to estimate a spatial Durbin panel data model for the provinces over the period 2001 to 2015. The results showed that transport infrastructure exerts a positive and statistically significant direct effect on the economic growth of the provinces. The transport infrastructure in each province has a significant and positive indirect effect on the industrial concentration of the other provinces, indicating that improvements to the infrastructure of the specific provinces have spatial spillover effects on the industrial concentration of the other provinces. the infrastructure of the specific provinces have spatial spillover effects on the industrial concentration of the other provinces.

The significance of tax revenue as the primary source of government finance underscores the importance of accurately measuring tax efforts using unbiased methodologies. This study employs a state-space model and the Kalman filter algorithm to estimate tax effort as an unobservable variable within the tax revenue equation in Iran from 1970 to 2021.The findings reveal a nuanced relationship between various factors and the tax ratio. Per capita income exhibits a positive impact, while the agriculture share in GDP exerts a negative influence. Interestingly, the coefficients of openness and monetization initially have negative elasticity but transition to positive after reaching a certain threshold, indicating a dynamic relationship with the tax ratio. Conversely, the services and industry share in GDP demonstrate a positive effect on the tax ratio before reaching a peak, after which their squared coefficients turn negative.Tax effort in Iran, throughout the studied period, has never been more than 0.25 highlighting a significant disparity between actual and potential tax revenue and underscores inefficiencies within the tax system.

In new democracies, politicians target the distribution of public spending to gain political support, and they have an incentive to manipulate the economy before elections. This study examines the effect of presidential election voting on budget allocations in Iranian provinces using the System Generalized Method of Moments in a panel data model from 2001 to 2017. The results show that the lag of budget allocation, non-oil GDP per capita, population share, GINI coefficient, length of roads per capita, dummy variable of oil-rich provinces, and dummy variable of deprived provinces have a positive and statistically significant effect. The effect of unemployment rate is negative and significant. The findings also indicate that voting for the ruling government has a positive effect on budget performance per capita in Iranian provinces. Therefore, after being elected, politicians in Iran do not ignore the needs of voters. Allocating funds to provinces without considering their needs and capacities can create an economic gap in the country. Therefore, monitoring this matter is necessary.

Today, the trade of technological products has become a pivotal force in shaping the global economy. With rapid advancements in technology and increasing interconnectedness, the trade of technological products has expanded exponentially over the years. This article examines the structural position of Iran in the export and import trade network of high-tech products in 2019 using network theory approach. Also, this paper assesses important suppliers and demanders of high-tech products in the high-tech trade networks. Finally, this manuscript evaluates the effect of recommended countries which are members of international treaties in Iran in high-tech products with an international political economy approach. The results show that creating or strengthening import links from East Asian, Southeast Asian, Oceania, and European countries can enhance Iran's structural position in the high-tech products trade network. Besides, in the export sector, the East Asian and Oceania countries are suggested destinations for the export of technological products. In addition, from the point of view of international political economy, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar and Turkey in the Middle East and Germany, Italy, China, Japan, Singapore, France, South Korea, Malaysia, India, the Netherlands and Hong Kong in other parts of the world are considered suitable for Iran in the trade of technological products.

Iran has an arid and semi-arid climate and is on the verge of a severe water crisis. Therefore, solutions should be sought to save water consumption, especially in sectors such as agriculture with a high share of water consumption. A virtual water exchange strategy is one of the suitable methods to save water in the agricultural sector. Attention to water resources, economic factors, technology and transportation, society, and environment is necessary to examine the suitability of virtual water exchange plans among regions. In this regard, this study aimed at constructing a composite index using Principal Components Analysis (PCA) method and the data of 2014 as well as investigating the virtual water exchange through the group of pulses products and the suitability of the virtual water exchange plans in pulses for each province of Iran based on the constructed composite index. The results showed that for the exchange of virtual water through the lentil crop, the provinces of East Azerbaijan, Fars, Qazvin, Ardabil, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Zanjan, Semnan and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad and for the bean crop, the provinces of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, Zanjan, Fars, Lorestan and Markazi, and also, for the chickpea crop, the provinces of East Azarbaijan, Zanjan, Fars and Kermanshah had medium to high status. Therefore, policy makers can use these results in designing the appropriate cultivation pattern and formulating policies for optimal allocation and increasing water productivity in Iran's provinces.

Today, one of the most important environmental problems is global warming and climate change. From the perspective of social psychologists and behavioral economists, environmental problems are more behavioral and cultural than the result of technological growth and the industrialization of societies. One of the most important causes of climate change problems is the existence of cognitive errors, or inconsistencies between the values ​​of individuals, organizations and institutions in relation to the environment and their actual behaviors towards the environment. Therefore, in this study, the effect of cognitive errors of the formatting effect, which includes two forms of profit or loss and distance, has been investigated on climate change issues.

The quasi-experimental method was used to answer the questions and the required information was collected in the field through a questionnaire. The statistical population consisted of 280 students. Using random sampling and Cochran's formula, the sample of 160 people was selected.

The results show that in relation to the outcome format, when information is provided in the form of harm to individuals, participants show more concern about climate change issues, so they are more inclined to change their behavior in order to improve the existing climate conditions and in the form of distance, the participants have shown more concern about the climate change of the local format.

Designing policies in the form of flip can make people aware of cognitive errors in the field of climate change and guide their behavior to reduce climate change.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a major component of the ecosystem, but its high concentration, along with the emission of other greenhouse gases, causes global warming, climate change, and environmental degradation. For this reason, the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions has been considered in recent decades. One of the factors that affect CO2 emissions is human capital, the effectiveness of human capital in reducing CO2 emissions depends on the level of development of countries.

This study has investigated the threshold effect of development on the impact of human capital on CO2 emissions in 18 Asian countries during the years 1995-2019 using panel threshold regression model.

The results show that two threshold levels for development should be considered. human capital at the level of development less than 27.48 has no significant effect on reducing CO2 emissions. If the level of development is between 27.48 and 29.32, human capital will reduce CO2 emissions. The greatest impact of human capital on reducing carbon dioxide emissions will be when the level of development exceeds 29.32.

Air pollution concerns, climate change, and sustainable development necessitate the discussion of the dynamics of energy intensity. Nowadays, energy convergence is widely used as a tool for considering the dynamics of energy intensity. The energy intensity convergence in manufacturing industries is suitable to assess whether there is a knowledge spillover between manufacturing industries and whether government policies have been effective for reducing energy intensity in manufacturing industries. The purpose of the study is to examine energy intensity convergence in Iranian manufacturing industries. To do that, we collected data from nine manufacturing industries from 1995 to 2015 and employed the generalized method of moments in panel data (GMM) technique. The results of the model estimation show that there is  convergence of energy intensity in the manufacturing industries.

Energy is one of the essential inputs in production that due to inefficient and inappropriate use of its resources, its consumption has increased significantly. In this regard, the identification of factors affecting energy consumption in the provinces is important. This study aims to investigate the effect of urbanization on energy consumption in Iranian provinces. To do so, we used the STIRPAT model to design the econometric model. The spatial error econometric model in panel data was used to estimate the effect of urbanization on energy consumption in 28 Iranian provinces from 2002 to 2015. The results show that the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption is inverted U-shaped. This finding indicates that an increase in urbanization first causes to increase and then decreases energy consumption.

In Iran, due to tax evasion, the government is not able to fully realize its potential tax revenue and usually face budget deficit. On the other hand, the central bank does not have enough independence. In this study, first, the monetary rule was calculated by optimizing the central bank's loss function by considering fiscal dominance and tax evasion. The derived rule responds to government deb in addition to inflation and GDP. Parameters have been calculated in the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model using Bayesian method based on data 2002-2017. We find that despite the fiscal dominance and liquidity constraints, tax evasion can act as a buffer layer for economic agents against economic shocks like government expenditure, oil revenue and technology but tax evasion is lead to greater volatility of economic variables. As a result, social welfare is decreased stronger while under fiscal dominance and absence of tax evasion, optimal monetary rule is impossible.

Iran has limited water resources, and more than 90% of its water is used in the agriculture sector. Virtual water exchange plan is a suitable method to optimize water consumption in the agricultural sector. Attention to water resources, economic factors, technology and transportation, society, and the environment is necessary to examine the suitability of virtual water exchange plans between regions. To do that, this study using the principal component analysis (PCA) method, and an integrated water-ecosystem- economy index has been constructed that includes the indicators of resources, technology, and transportation, economy, society, and environment. The suitability of the virtual water exchange plan in wheat, barley, and paddy products for each province has been investigated based on an integrated index. The results show that Kermanshah, Ilam, and Fars are good and North Khorasan and Golestan are weak for the exchange of virtual water of wheat. In the barley, Chaharmahal Bakhtiari has a good condition, and Khorasan Razavi has a weak condition. For paddy, Mazandaran has a good, and Gilan and Golestan have a weak condition.

The researches have generally ignored the effect of an oil price shock passing through financial channel. To fill this gap, we examine the impact of a fall in oil price on output and inflation through trade and financial channels by using a Global VAR (GVAR) model in oil-exporting countries. Our sample includes 15 OPEC and non-OPEC oil-exporting countries, 14 oil-importing countries and European :union: as a block. Our GVAR model is estimated for the period 1990Q1-2017Q4. We show that a combination of trade and financial channels better capture the oil shock transmission mechanism in our model. The impulse-response functions indicate that an oil price falling results in a sustained decline in output of oil-exporting countries. Furthermore, the impact of a negative oil price shock on inflation in developing oil-exporting countries is positive, whereas its effect on the inflation in developed oil-exporting countries is negative. Moreover, we show that the responses of real exchange rates to a falling oil price might partially explain higher inflation rate in these countries. We conclude that a fall in oil prices might bring about stagflation in developing oil-exporting countries. These findings might have importance policy implications for policymakers and social planners in developing oil-exporting countries.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of "Asset Securitization" on bankschr('39') performances. Asset securitization is generally defined as the "financial process by which an owner of an asset, such as a portfolio of loans, receives cash upfront in exchange for the future cash flows from the asset without selling the asset in a normal contractual sales agreement." (Menzi et al., 2018). Asset securitization has not been applied in Iranian banks so far. Therefore, we have devised an approach to examine the variation in performance in the presence or the absence of a securitized portfolio by using a "Propensity Score Matching" method. In this study, the effect of "Asset Securitization" is hypothetically assessed for Bank Saderat Iran. To show the meaningfulness of the difference between two states, "variance equality F-test" as well as "couplet-test" is used. The results show that "Asset Securitization" has a positive and meaningful effect on the net profit of the Bank Saderat Iran. Moreover, to study the relationship between profitability and non-performing loans, the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model is applied, and the results show that non-performing loans harm the bankchr('39')s profitability.

Road Transportation is one of the most important economic sectors whose services are used as intermediate and final goods. The increase in the price of this sector, in addition to the impact it has on the dimensions of participation in travel decisions, including destination selection, travel time, method of transportation and traffic management, it also affects the prices of different economic sectors that has not been studied in previous studies. The purpose of this study is to fill this research gap that in addition to examining the position of transportation among economic sectors in Iran and calculating the total effects, direct effects and indirect effects of a 20% increase in road transport prices on the prices of different sectors and Changes in the price index of economic sectors. The method used in this research is input-output technique and all economic sectors of Iran in the input-output table of 1390, which includes 99 parts, in this research has been merged into 29 economic sectors. The results of the study show that road transportation rank is fifth among 29 economic sectors in terms of forward linkage. The highest impact of the 20% increase in road transport prices on changes in the price index of food industry sectors with 47.75%, trade and hotel management with 44.26%, agriculture, horticulture, agricultural services, animal husbandry and forestry with 17.42%, petroleum products, Chemical products, non-metallic mineral industries with 15.05% and housing with 10.07%.

The study of the effect of transportation price on the price index of economic sectors and the place of transportation according to the forward linkage, backward linkage, Power of Dispersion Index and Dispersion Sensitivity are considered as an important topic. In this way, this paper first examines the place of transportation in the Iranian economy and then examines the direct effects of increasing the price of transportation on the price of different economic sectors. To do this, using the Input-Output analysis and table 2011 of the Statistical Center of Iran. First, the symmetric table is calculated for the constant price and then merged under the various economic sectors and the input-output table is considered as 25 sectors. According to the results of this study, the highest impact of an increase 20%, 30% and 40% in transportation prices on commerce and hotel, petroleum products, chemical products, and mineral industries, agriculture and animal product price index.

The interaction between institutional quality and the mechanism of oil shock diffusion might have a significant effect on macroeconomic dynamics in an oil-exporting country. The literature lacks a formal model to address the role of institutional quality in the economic performance of an oil-rich developing economy. Using a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, this study develops a model to investigate the response of macroeconomic variables to changes in institutional quality resulted from oil shocks in Iran as an important oil-exporting country. Our modeling allows us to show how institutional quality and oil revenues affect households, firms, government, and the central bank. The model is solved and calibrated for the period 1959-2017. The results indicate that the destruction of institutional quality caused by a positive oil shock prevents the Iranian economy from reaping the fruits of an increase in oil revenues. Oil revenues and their shocks by destroying the institutional quality through the expansion of rent-seeking ‎activities, increasing transaction costs of production, reducing the impact of government spending, and ‎diverting monetary and fiscal policies from the targets result in negative effects on Iranchr('39')s non-oil ‎production in the long run.‎ To reduce the destructive effects of oil shocks on institutional quality in the Iranian economy, we suggest the policymakers in Iran reduce the dependency of the government budget on oil revenues.

Institutional quality is one of the key determinants of the economic performance of countries. The literature lacks a formal model to address the role of institutional quality changes in the macroeconomic dynamics of a developing economy. Using a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework and incorporating rent-seeking technology, this study investigates the effect of institutional quality shocks on the business cycle and the dynamic behavior of key macroeconomic variables in Iran. Our modeling allows us to show how institutional quality affects behavior of households, firms, government, and the central bank. The model is solved and calibrated for the period 1984-2017. The results indicate that better institutional quality increases private consumption, government spending, and non-oil production through increasing productive activities, decreasing transaction costs, improving productivity, enhancing investment, and promoting more effective monetary and fiscal policies. More specifically, policymakers should take certain measures to improve the quality of institutions in Iran through boosting government stability, fighting corruption, controlling rent-seeking activities, improving law and order, increasing democratic accountability, and bureaucracy quality. These findings might have important policy implications for policymakers in Iran.

Regional inequality and imbalance in spatial structure of the regions are common phenomena that many countries have been facing with them, especially developing countries. Some effects of regional inequality can be mentioned as development of some regions, formation and intensification of huge inequalities in income and social welfare between different regions and socioeconomic complications. The present study analyzes the relationship between regional inequality and economic development among the provinces of Iran and seeks to answer this questions: is there an inverse U relationship between regional inequality and development between regions? In order to answer the questions of this research, regional inequality was calculated using Williamson's index. A spatial dynamic panel data econometric model was used to investigate the relationship between regional inequality and economic development between the five regions of the country in the years 2001-2015. The results show that the relationship between regional inequality and development is U shape inverse, which represents an increase in inequality in the early stages of development of the regions, and then inequality has decreased as development trend improved gradually.

After World War II, countries have used sanctions against target countries instead of military attack in order to force them to change their policies. Following the revolution, Iran was sanctioned by the U.S. and its alliances. The strict sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012 and most of them were supposed to be lifted in 2016 by United Nations, following the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Since sanctions can affect countries' economic conditions, specifically their foreign trade relations, it is crucial to study the effectiveness of sanctions. Hence, this study compares the structural economic position of Iran in the international trade network in 2012 and 2016 and investigates the effectiveness of international sanctions on Iran's structural position in the International trade network. Results show that Iran is not only a periphery in the international trade network, but also its structural position in the international trade network is not affected significantly by the sanctions.

Using a sticky price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, this paper study how the presence of both Ricardian and non-Ricardian households in the economy might affect the effectiveness of the monetary policy on macroeconomic dynamics and the determinacy of equilibrium in Iran. If the household participation in the financial market is not sufficiently big, the slope of a dynamic IS curve becomes positive. In the case of an upward-sloping IS curve, the equilibrium is indeterminant. Based on the degree of financial development in Iran, we estimate the share of non-Ricardian households for two periods: 1990 to 1999 and 2000 to 2017. The results show that during the first period, the share of non-Ricardian household in Iranian economy was 54 percent and the slope of the IS curve was upward. Hence, the model did not have a stable equilibrium during 1990-1999. However, in the second period, with an increase in the level of financial development in Iran, the share of non-Ricardian household decreased to 38 percent. In this case, the dynamic IS curve sloped downward and the model had a stable unique equilibrium. The impulse response functions show that in the second period, a monetary shock has the expected effect on macroeconomic variables including output, inflation, employment, real wage and the growth rate of money base. Our results underscore the role of households' participation in the financial market in the effectiveness of the monetary policy on macroeconomic variables and the determinacy of equilibrium in a dynamic stochastic model.

determinants of economic growth, and the study of its impact on regional economic growth in different regions can help to develop those regions and neighboring areas. Some believe that a significant positive human capital effect can only be realized after the economy crosses the threshold level of development. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of the threshold level of development on the impact of human capital on economic growth in Iran's provinces. For this purpose, the threshold method of panel data was used for 28 provinces of Iran during the period of 1380-1394. The findings show that there are two threshold values for the level of development, with the first threshold of the development level of 3/8134 and the threshold value of 5/460, and if the level of development is less than 3/8134, human capital will not affect economic growth. Was. But if the level of development is between 3/8134 and 5/46, with growth of 1% of human capital, economic growth will grow 0/08%, and if the level of development is above 5/46, with a 1% increase in human capital, economic growth of 0/175% will grow.

One of the issues discussed in the international economics literature is the type and amount of imported goods. The main reason for these disputes is the negative impact of imports on the domestic economy. On the other hand, some experts believe that there are some types of import that do not lead to increase the dependency and not reduce the sustainable development of the importing country. The import of intermediate goods and capital, in addition to providing the basic needs of the manufacturing sector, has led to increase in the knowledge and technology spillover from developed countries to developing countries. Thus, these types of imports indirectly increase output and ultimately exports of developing countries. This paper aims to examine the effect of import of intermediate and capital goods on non-oil exports in OPEC Countries so using Spatial Panel Data Approach during 2005-2015. The results indicate that these imports have significant and positive effects on non-oil exports. In other words, one percent increase in import of intermediate goods and capital goods increase the growth of non-oil exports in OPEC countries 0.45 and 0.38 percent respectively.