abbas abbasi

This study aims to provide a model of integrated communication with entrepreneurial ecosystem actors at different life cycle stages of e-start-ups. To this end, the main actors of each life cycle stage were identified through interviews with the co-founders of e-startups in Shiraz Hub Accelerator and integrated communication concepts using meta-synthesis. Then, integrated communication tools for the main actors of the entrepreneurial ecosystem at each stage of the life cycle were determined and weighted using the content validity ratio and SWARA technique for the main actors. Based on the findings, accelerators and incubators are the main actors in the pre-startup stage. Implementing direct relations, networking, and event-based marketing by startups is crucial for these actors. In the startup phase, in addition to accelerators and incubators, business angels and users are also major actors in this ecosystem, with direct relations, networking, and sales promotion programs for accelerators and incubators, as well as public relations and social marketing for business angels and e-WOM, and event-based marketing are the most important for users, respectively. In the growth phase of the e-startup, direct relations, networking, public relations, and social marketing have also shown the most significant importance for venture capitalists, e-WOM, e-marketing, social media marketing, and internet marketing, respectively.

Heart failure (HF), or congestive Heart failure (CHF), is a heart disorder with a number of symptoms caused by the heart’s inability to pump blood. Our aim in conducting this study is to investigate the adherence to dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH) diet components and the risk of HF in Iranian adult women and men. In this hospital-based, case-control study, we included 340 participants (194 men and 146 women) aged 30–70 years who were recently (less than 6 months) diagnosed with HF. In this study, there were 169 participants in the control group and 171 participants in the case group. A semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) with 148 items was used to assess food intake. Multiple logistic regression statistical tests were used to evaluate the relationship between DASH score and HF. After adjusting for confounding variables, the data showed that adherence to the DASH diet was associated with a reduced risk of HF. Our data show that a significant relationship was found between the consumption of fruits (OR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.53-0.68), vegetables (OR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.28-0.81), legumes and nuts (OR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.65-0.68), and heart failure, but no significant relationship was found with the other components of the DASH diet and heart failure. Findings suggest that there is an inverse relationship between adherence to the DASH-style diet and the likelihood of HF, and adherence to some components of the DASH diet was also effective in reducing the risk of HF. To obtain more complete results, it is necessary to conduct cohort studies and randomized clinical trials.

As a formative assessment procedure, self-assessment aims to converge learners’ and teachers’ views in assessment. Hence, reducing the perceptual mismatches between the learners’ and the teachers’ assessment would positively affect the learning process. For this aim, the present study investigated to what extent the learners’ assessment of their writing before and after being provided with a list of rating criteria, agrees that of their teachers. Therefore, a body of 6 EFL writing teachers and 27 EFL learners participated in this study. The learners were asked to rate their writing before and after being provided with rating criteria developed by the researchers. The teachers also rated the students’ writings following the same criteria. The obtained results showed a significant difference between the students' scores on the first and second assessment occasions. The teachers’ and the students’ assessment on the second time also were found to significantly correlate. Moreover, the analysis of the students’ comments showed that while they rated their writing on some limited aspects of writing in the first rating occasion, they assessed their essays using more components in the second assessment phase. Overall, the findings revealed that providing the learners with rating criteria would not only reduce the perceptual mistaches between the students’ and the teachers’ assessment but through involving the students’ voices in their assessment would promote democratic classroom assessment. Pedagogical implications of the study are discussed.

Today, by adopting a circular approach, organizations can reduce the flow of materials, products, and environmental waste caused by supply chain practices. Therefore, circular supply chain management is one of the appropriate methods to reduce issues such as pollution, resource depletion, and environmental problems. Despite these advantages, the implementation of the circular economy in the supply chain faces numerous challenges. The purpose of this research is to identify and prioritize the challenges of implementing circular supply chain management in Premium Band Company. In terms of results, this research is considered part of applied-developmental research. In the first stage of the research, the challenges of implementing the circular economy were identified and categorized using a systematic approach. This involved reviewing literature and articles published from 2000 to 2022 and employing the qualitative content analysis method. This process resulted in the design of a model, which included 33 challenges across six dimensions: legal and regulatory, market, social, organizational, technological, and financial and economic challenges. In the second stage, the importance of these challenges was determined using the Hesitant Fuzzy Topsis method, based on the opinions of 10 experts from Premium Band Company through a questionnaire. The findings reveal that challenges such as a lack of financial resources, insufficient budget, inadequate support and commitment from top management, absence of a circular supply chain management structure, and a shortage of skilled labor are the most significant obstacles in the implementation of circular supply chain management.

Local event tourism is one of the types of tourism that can play an essential role in the sustainable economic and social development of communities. However, this issue has received less attention. Meymand Fars Flower and Rose Festival is one of these events held every year in the spring season. This study aims to identify the factors that attract tourists to this event. For this purpose, the factors attracting tourists to the events were extracted by qualitative content analysis and then the tourists' opinions. Finally, a conceptual framework of influencing factors on customers' tendencies, including 50 indicators in 15 components, was presented. Also, the quantitative analysis of Q data shows that accessibility, hospitality, and spending time with friends were essential for the first group of tourists, social interactions and event quality were necessary for the second group, patriotic and learning motives were important for the third group, and experience and enjoyment of the event were necessary for the fourth group. At the same time, natural attractions and enjoyment of the festival environment have been essential for all tourists, and these results can be a basis for formulating marketing strategies for local tourism events.

All organizations pursue the goal of increasing customer attraction as well as enhancing their satisfaction. The country's banking industry in recent decades has experienced a rise in the number of banks, credit financial institutions and good credit funds. Hence, it is faced with growing competition. According to the latest data available on the World Bank website, the share of the value-added services in Iran is 55.8% of GDP in 2019, which is slightly higher than the global average of this index (54.8%). This percentage shows the importance of service sectors in the country. Advertising and choosing the right advertising method is the approach widely considered by thinkers. This is because the tendency of users of services and goods and the success of advertising largely depend on choosing the right advertising tools and the right method. Also, using creativity and taste in producing effective advertising content and identifying the factors affecting the intention to use services are the basic needs of financial institutions such as banks. Identifying these factors provides valuable information to attract and retain business customers. This research has been done with the aim of designing a pattern for explaining the relationship between the advertisement of electronic bank services and intention to use.

The present study is developmental and applied in terms of purpose and exploratory and mixed in terms of method. It has two parts, qualitative and quantitative, with an emphasis on the qualitative part. In the qualitative part, the proposed model is presented by the qualitative content analysis method. To evaluate the reliability of the model and its validity the Kappa index and experts’s opinions are used, respectively. First, by the library method and a comprehensive review of the literature in the field, the corresponding models and theories are studied. For this purpose, qualitative content analyses are performed to identify the subcategories. The quantitative part of this research has been measured among bank customers. To do this, a template was provided as a questionnaire. Cronbach's alpha method was used to assess the reliability of the questionnaire. The total alpha of the questionnaire was 0.854, which indicates that the reliability of the questionnaire was good. The statistical population in the quantitative part consisted of Bank Shahr customers in Shiraz City. The sampling process was done in two stages. In the first stage, the stratified sampling method and, in the second stage, the simple random sampling method were used, and the statistical sample consisted of 384 customers of Bank Shahr branches with different grades.

According to the descriptive statistics, 48.7% of the respondents were female and 51.3% of them were male, of whom 52.6% were in the age range of 20-30 years, 1% in the age group of 40-30 years, 12.2% of them at the ages of 50-50 years, and 3.2% of them were over 50 years. Also, 12.4% had a diploma and less, 11.9% had a postgraduate education, 4.4% 46% had a bachelor's degree, and 25.1% had a master's degree or higher. According to the results, young people with higher education are more inclined to use electronic banking services. The results of model fitting, which was estimated using the multivariate regression method, showed a strong correlation between the independent variables and the dependent variable of the research because the value of multiple-correlation coefficient was 0.695. Also, according to the results, about 48% of the variance of the intention to use electronic banking services as a dependent variable was predicted by the independent variables. Based on the adjusted coefficient of determination, which corrects the coefficient of determination in order to further reflect the goodness of the model, the independent variables explain 48% of the changes in the dependent variable. The value obtained for the F test in the table of the ANOVA is 1778/534, which is significant at the error level of 0.05. This means that the independent variables have a high power to explain well the amount of variation and the variance of the dependent variable. The results of the regression coefficients of the independent variables on the dependent variables showed that the variable of advertising with a regression coefficient of 0.732 had a great effect on the intention to use electronic banking services. The effect of the advertising evaluation indicators on the intention to use electronic banking services was not confirmed.

It can be concluded that the advertising of Bank Shahr has an effect on the intention to use e-banking services. Also, the variables of advertising have no effect on the intention to use e-banking services. So, it is important to increase customer understanding that using e-banking is more beneficial than the traditional ways of receiving bank services.

The aim of this study was to »identify and prioritize the features of Online Advertisements for Persuade Investors to the Stock Market«. in the first step, using qualitative content analysis method was used to identify the features of Online advertising in the stock market to investors. The content validity and reliability of the model were assessed by the content validity ratio index and kappa index respectively. In the next step, dimensions, components and indices of the model were prioritized by 8 experts using best-worst method. Finally, the identified indicators were classified into 2 dimensions, 10 components and 27 indicators. The results of the prioritization indicate the importance of content component in comparison with structural component. Moreover, among the dimension of the content features, the components of emotional attractions, quality, rational attractions, validity and ethical attractions and among the structural features of the quantity components, accessibility and user friendliness, apparent features, easy use of users and communication were recognized in the order of significance.

This study aimed to identify and categorize the factors affecting Iran’s industrial growth using an export development approach. After library studies, examining previous experiences in Iran and other countries, and identifying the influential factors, the basic conceptual model was extracted, including seven dimensions and 39 factors. Then, in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with industry professionals in the field of exports to validate and discover other possible factors. After that, the findings of the two stages were coded and analyzed to implement the content analysis technique. In addition, an academic expert validated the final model in 7 categories and 36 dimensions, and the Cohen’s Kappa index was 0.679 for the final model. Based on the findings of this study, the factors affecting Iran’s industrial development were categorized into seven categories: market-oriented, infrastructure-oriented, resource-oriented, government-oriented, institutional-oriented, approach-oriented, and risk-oriented. The market-oriented category included: competitive advantage, marketing research, export portfolio diversity, service availability, and participation in the global value chain. In addition, the infrastructure-oriented category consisted of monetary/financial/banking infrastructure, e-commerce, logistics, industry structure, and insurance. Moreover, the resource-oriented was comprised of productivity, labour market, foreign investment, social capital, spatial planning, quality raw materials, technology, and innovation. Besides, the government-oriented category involved export promotion policies, economic stability, political stability, quality of education, quality of health, quality of business ecosystem, and stability and transparency of laws. Furthermore, institutional-oriented was made up of the quality of industrial clusters, power of export organizations, and removal of cumbersome processes and laws. Additionally, the approach-oriented category included export strategy in enterprises, export strategy in the country, entrepreneurial culture, and consumer culture. Finally, the risk-oriented category consisted of resilience against natural factors, global crises, and fluctuations in energy carrier rates).

The services sector plays an increasingly important role in the global economy, so the value chain analysis can be helpful in this situation. Due to the different substance of the service, features of the service and its intangibility. In today's specific business environment, the Gabriel model has to be updated to Mach whit situation for evaluation and analysis. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to present a comprehensive services value chain model especially for bank.Metholology: In this research, qualitative content analysis was done to meet the purpose of the study. The codes are extracted from the literature and interviews with bank professionals. This part of the research is interpretive, and its direction of is development-applies, The approach is inductive-deductive, and the time horizon is cross-sectional. The statistical population in the qualitative section, like previous studies in this field is selected from through purposeful and judgmental sampling, and the sample size was determined based on theoretical saturation. In the quantitative part, the best-worst weight of each component of the value chain was determined, and the proposed model was evaluated in the supervision of Mellat Bank. The orientation of this part is development-applied. It introduces a new value chain in the field of services. The study approach is hybrid (inductive-deductive), inductive in that it tries to extract the components of the service value chain using previous studies, which can ultimately provide a model. It is deductive in the sense that the model is finally evaluated using a descriptive-survey method. The strategy of the present study is exploratory and mixed in that both quantitative and qualitative methods are used. This research is exploratory-descriptive according to its nature and goals. It should be noted that this research is also cross-sectional in terms of time.  After filtering the codes, some of them are removed and finally 107 codes were classified into index, concept, category and dimension. Finally, supply chain management, agility, marketing and sales management, corporate governance, and information and communication technology (ICT) were added to the value-added components of the Gabriel model. Next, the best-worst method (with the Excel 2016 software) was used to reveal the contribution of each value to the creation of components. ICT had the highest contribution, sustainability had at least According to the assessment, reliability and credibility, corporate governance, information, and communication technology and delivery system management are close to the minimum desired weight. Finally, Mellat Bank's status in the value chain was evaluated. The greatest gap between the current weight status and optimal is related to human resource management and supply chain management. This study provides a theatrical model that expresses valuable activities at the level of the banking industry and contributes to the literature in the field. The results of the quantitative section showed that the components of Mellat Bank are in relatively good conditions. Since this model tries to consider all the value-creating components in the field of banking services, it is recommended that bank managers and experts use the proposed model when making decisions so that they can maintain a competitive advantage in the right direction. Considering the value-added components mentioned in the model, banks can have the best performance in relation to the customer, provide their services, and attract and retain investors. The main function of the model is in the banking industry, but, because of its general nature, other service industries can also benefit from the results. Enriching the value chain with concepts such as sustainability, globalization, cooperation with competitors, intangible assets, flexibility and agility has led to the evolution of the value chain into a value network. Therefore, the value components obtained in this research should be cyclical and non-linear to lead to profitability and sustainability. The results of the quantitative section showed that information and communication technology with a weight of 12.16 was the most important factor, and stability with a weight of 2.79 was the least important one. Information and communication technology is a tool to achieve a competitive advantage, it has been developing rapidly in recent years, and it has already led to significant changes in the way businesses are run. This technology is at the heart of the banking sector. It has become necessary to pay attention to it in order to gain a competitive advantage. According to reliability assessments, corporate governance, information and communication technology and delivery system management are close to the desired minimum weight. The largest gap between the current and the optimal weights is related to human resource management and supply chain management.

The main objective of this research is to present a model for analyzing various scenarios aimed at improving the status of startups by applying the hypotheses of one of the most practical courses of thought in this sphere namely the Lean Approach to Startups.The present research is regarded as applied in respect of the goal and with a descriptive nature based on the case study. Further, the research is a mixed type and based on the sequential exploratory strategy whereby in its qualitative section, the local group and in its quantitative section, the concept of customer attraction and reaction have been modelled by using the factor-based modelling approach and implementing the software of Netlogo 6.0.I for this purpose. In this regard, upon application of the various parts of this software, the model parameters were calibrated with real data and the outputs thereto were produced. Accordingly, by using the data analysis software, the produced outputs from Netlogo 6.0. I were aggregated and presented in the form of various indicator graphs. The research findings also prove that for the startups, being studied, the market operation of the customers who have recently consumed a product can increase the number of payers to over 30 percent relative to the attraction of new customers and about 40 percent relative to the market  operation of old customers. More importantly, the market operation of the customers having the highest relationships in their network will result in a 30-rise percent in the total number of customers. The main achievements of this research compared to the similar studies will be inclusion of the interaction structure among customers (their social network) in the modelling process, attention to homogeneity among customers as well as the credit rating of the model so produced.

Despite the interest in tourism, this issue has been influenced by concerns about natural and social environments, and in response to that, sustainable tourism has become the standard approach in tourism development. However, the debate, discourse, and in some cases criticism of this area continues. Later, responsible tourism emerged as another solution for the interaction between the environment and the tourist. The purpose of this article is to review the research conducted in the field of sustainable and responsible tourism to identify the content formed in these areas and to examine the relationship between them in order to understand the current situation and determine the direction of future research on these issues. Therefore, in this article, with the scientometric approach, articles in this field in the period 2019-1990 have been reviewed. A total of 1518 articles retrieved from the Web of Science database were analyzed using collaboration network analysis and both citation and all lexical network. Findings show that the focus of issues has changed from the concept of sustainable tourism to governance and social responsibility, and in the shadow of sustainable tourism, a new concept is being formed that addresses the issue of responsibility in the field of tourism. The result of this research explains the hot research topics and the development process of future research in this field.

Resistance economics was proposed by the supreme leader of the revolution as a way of overcoming enemy economic siege. Education as one of the largest government institutions can play an increasingly effective role in achieving this. The purpose of this qualitative case study is to explore a framework for resistive economics in education. Potential research participants included resistance economists and education managers familiar with resistive economics in the country who were selected using purposeful sampling and standardized data saturation discussion. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with education managers and resisting economists as well as the study of related upstream documents. The themes were extracted, coded, and meshed using a thematic analysis method. The discovery network showed that the realization of a resistive economy in education consists of 12 organizational themes and 61 basic themes. The validity of the results was confirmed by the data matching method. The findings showed that institutional measures, human capital management, efficient management of financial resources, nurturing student morale, modeling and reforming lifestyle, people-centered, etc. can be considered as some of the main aspects of the realization of a resilient economy in education and traning.

This study provides a framework for how to manage consumer behavior during the outbreak of global pandemic’s by focusing on Covid 19 in a direction that leads to favorable results for retailers. The importance of this research is that at present, due to the spread of epidemic disease and the resulting recession, many changes in consumer behavior can be observed and since retailers are highly influenced by changes in consumer behavior because of their inherent characteristics, having a framework to guide their practice can greatly help them; forasmuch as even in critical situations, by implementing appropriate strategies, business performance can be maintained or even improved. In order to present this framework, qualitative content analysis method with inductive approach was used. The sampling method in the present study is purposeful, after analyzing 27 relevant and valid studies and conducting interviews with experts in the field of consumer behavior by snowball method, the framework for how to manage consumer behavior was presented: This framework includes 4 main categories of transparency, effective communication, community-based behavior and endurance, 16 components and 57 indicators. The reliability of the model was confirmed using the kappa index.

Manufacturing institutions and businesses can better develop marketing plans to attract more customers and save marketing costs by realizing the pre-purchase behavior of potential customers. The present study proposes a comprehensive model of the pre-purchase behavior of consumers.

A mixed methodology was adopted. The qualitative phase identified pre-purchase consumer behavior factors by a systematic review of the literature, and reliability was verified by Cohen's kappa coefficient. The quantitative phase tested the proposed model using structural equation modeling (SEM) in Smart PLS V.3.

Pre-purchase behavior was modeled in four dimensions and ten factors, including contextual factors (psychological and social), requirement identification factors (requirement encouragement, requirement emergence, and cognitive reaction to requirement), information searching factors (positional information searching factors, subjective information sources, and external information sources), and pre-purchase investigation factors (alternative evaluation and pre-purchase satisfaction).

Contextual factors had significant, direct and indirect, impacts on pre-purchase behavior in all the stages of requirement identification, information searching, and pre-purchase investigation. This stage (contextual factors) directly and indirectly impacted all the succeeding stages.

In recent years, due to limited water resources in Malayer plain, irrigation methods are changing from surface to under pressure. The purpose of this study was to investigate changes in soil quality due to changes in irrigation methods. For this purpose, 14 farms and 2 orchards equipped with sprinkler and drip irrigation system were selected and their soil quality changes compared with the corresponding values before implementation were evaluated by Mann-Whitney statistical test. Soil quality parameters included acidity (pH), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), organic matter (C), electrical conductivity of solutes (ECe) and potassium (K). The zoning map of the studied quality parameters was also prepared using ArcGIS software before and after the implementation of pressurized irrigation systems. The results showed that the difference between the values of the studied parameters before and after the implementation of pressurized irrigation systems including ECe, pH and C were non-significant at the level of 5% probability and the changes of P, K and N were significant. The results of measuring the qualitative parameters showed an increase in the mean values of pH, N, P and C from 7.72 to 7.80, 0.067 to 0.121 mg/kg, 11.01 to 17.95 mg/kg and 0.68 to 0.80%, respectively, compared with before the implementation of pressurized irrigation systems. However, ECe and K values of field soils decreased from 1.06 to 0.53 dS/m and 255.1 to 156 mg/kg, respectively. The results showed that changing the irrigation method reduced potassium and increased soil phosphorus and nitrogen.

Due to increasing gap between water supply and demand, paying close attention to the principles of optimal water allocation is inevitable. In the present investigation, allocations from Kalan Malayer Reservoir to demands identified by the Iranian Ministry of Energy were evaluated using MODSIM8.1. These demands are environmental and sustainability requirements, City of Malayer drinking water, agricultural requirement of the downstream lands, irrigation of Sahand Malayer farms and industrial centers. The analysis temporal scale was a 12-month period with monthly time steps during year 2016-2017. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the behavior of the dam reservoir when the inflow is reduced. Four scenarios including 5, 10, 15 and 20 percent river reduction in flow to the reservoir were investigated. The results indicated that with decrease in the river inflow, the stored water in the dam reservoir would decreased and there would be shortage to meet all demands. The deficiencies volume in supplying water to demands from the first scenario to the fourth scenario was 0.373, 0.748, 1.124 and 1.508 MCM, respectively. In other words, the relationship between the decrease in stored water volume in the dam reservoir and river inflow reduction was linear. Therefore, in order to meet the demands in all four scenarios, the allocation to the demand points should be reduced according to the priorities of the demands. The other solution is to reduce the target storage volume equal to the total deficiency volume in that month.

Nowadays, the tourism industry is facing special conditions due to the Pandemic of COVID-19 disease. To overcome this crisis, cannot rely on the actions of the government alone. The main idea of this research is to use the concepts of responsible tourism and to propose an approach called directional-responsible tourism to deal with the consequences of COVID -19. In this approach, the role of the government as a leader is combined with the role of the tourism body as a responsible and it is stated how responsible behavior in action at the individual and organizational level contributes to the concept of leadership at the macro level. The present study is a qualitative exploratory research. Qualitative content analysis method was used to formulate the solutions and screening was used to finalize them. Finally, the solutions were prioritized according to the two dimensions of implementation capability and helping to achieve the goals. The results show that all stakeholders, including government, industry, social groups, and even people and tourists, have a key role to play in overcoming this crisis faster and must play their part.

The correct and accurate estimation of river flow can play an important role in reducing the effects of flood damage. In this research, Gene Expression Programming (GEP) model and Bayesian Network (BN) were used to predict daily flow of Mahabad River in Urmia Lake Basin. Accordingly, four input models with a delay of one to four days used to estimate daily flow at time t+1 over a 23-years period and 75% of data was used to train the models and 25% of the remaining data was used for the test stage. Results showed that the best model in both methods was the input pattern with three-time lags. Also, based on the correlation coefficient (R), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe (E) coefficient in the test stage of the GEP method with R=0.902, RMSE=2.71(m3s-1) and E=0.812 compared to the BN method with R=0.905, RMSE=2.679(m3s-1( and E=0.817 is more accurate. In general, both methods have acceptable accuracy and are they relatively similar, but because of the simpler modeling, Bayesian Network method can be used as an efficient method for predicting river flow.

According to many experts, methodological weakness is one of theweaknesses of master and doctoral dissertations in Iran. A meta-methodological study isa kind of comprehensive study that examines and compares the methodological aspects ofprevious researches. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to identify and evaluate thestatus of the methodological components of master and doctoral dissertations in the fieldof industrial management at Shiraz University from 1991 to 2019.

This research is a descriptive and analytical type that used Meta-method toreview the dissertations in the field of industrial management. VOS viewer software isused to analyze data from Excel software and keyword co-event.

The results of the data analysis showed that 89% of the dissertations wereapplied research t and the most used tool of the researchers was questionnaire (31%). Inaddition, the results indicated the dominance of quantitative methods (79%), positivismparadigm (80%) and survey strategy (57%) and Statistical test methods (30%) in theanalysis of findings in industrial management researches. Finally, by extracting 713unique keywords, 56 words were repeated at least 5 times, including applied research,descriptive, quantitative, positivism, library and field research, survey, documentationand questionnaire.

The results of this study can lead to understanding the past situation and bypresenting a picture of trends in the selection of methods used in dissertations, identifythe existing gaps and be used for future educational and research planning.

So far, the linear time series parameters are estimated, generally based on graphical and approximate methods. Therefore, the use of a new approach to increase the speed and ease of access to the best time series model can play an important role in using this method for predicting hydrological events. In this research, an optimization approach based on genetic algorithm has been used to estimate the ARMA time series parameters. A hybrid of Genetic Algorithm-ARMA method was used to drought prediction at three selected stations in the Urmia Lake basin, including Tabriz, Saqhez and Urmia, based on the SPEI drought index. The results showed that according to the BDS test, the model had the ability to predict the drought in all three stations and in all time scales. The Ljung-Box statistic was also used to evaluate the reliability of the prediction model. Its p-value at all stations and time-scales were greater than 0.05 which indicated the residuals of models were random and reliable. Also, the best time series model was calculated at different time scales and based on this, the SPEI index was predicted. The results of the prediction section showed that ARMA-GA hybrid method had a high accuracy at all long-term time scales of SPEI index at all the stations, but its performance was not suitable for short-term time scales.

Ginger is a natural dietary rhizome with antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anticarcinogenic properties. It has many medical beneficial properties such as anti-proliferation and antiapoptotic effects on cancerous esophageal cells.

Esophageal cancer cells ESO26 were cultured in the presence and absence of ginger extract at various concentrations for 12, 18, and 24 h. Then, the viability was determined by 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol)-2,5-diphenyl tetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay. Western blot analysis of caspase-3 was performed to detect apoptosis. p21, Bax, and Bcl-2 gene expression was measured using quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Data were analyzed using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey test.

The ginger extract increased the cleavage of caspase-3 in cells (P < 0.05). Results of real-time PCR have shown that ginger decreased the expression of Bcl-2 and increased Bax and p21 gene expression (P < 0.05).

Results showed that the process of cell proliferation has been stopped. Also, this study indicated that ginger might exert a chemopreventive effect on esophageal cancer through the suppression of proliferation and the growth of tumor cells as well as the induction of apoptosis.

With increasing competitive pressures in chain store settings, customer loyalty is considered as a measure of their performance, and the question of why customers become loyal to a particular chain store is very important. Considering the importance of customer loyalty in the present study, a conceptual model of customer loyalty has been presented in order to improve insight in this field. In this regard, first, the loyalty determinants were identified, and then with the help of these factors and using qualitative content analysis with a deductive approach, an attempt was made to identify the factors that have shaped loyalty. The statistical population of this research consisted of related internal and external studies in credible journals from 1390 to 1399 AH and 2000 to 2019. Finally, by examining the content of 90 valid and relevant studies that were selected through purposive and snowball sampling, the research model was presented. The model included 7 main categories such as the attractiveness of the offer, store responsibility, store authenticity, environmental structure, influencers, competent endorsers, and contextual factors, 19 subcategories, 67 components, and 338 indicators. The reliability of this model was confirmed by the Kappa index. In this study, in order to identify the customer loyalty model, both controllable and uncontrollable factors by the store have been considered.

The purpose of this study was to provide a model for predict the volatility in Tehran Stock Exchange index, taking into account the behavioral and macroeconomic factors affected on financial and monetary markets of the country. The importance and necessity of this study is that, unlike other previous studies, in order to realize this importance, only macroeconomic dimensions have not been addressed, and in addition to this dimension, the behavior dimensions have been examined, Until to improve the explanatory power of the model than the other presented models in this regard. This matter has been accomplished by using the system dynamism method and the relationship between behavioral bias, alternative assets and macroeconomic factors. The simulated model is structured by using the Vensim DSS software and the results of the research prove this matter that according to the upcoming conditions until 2021, the value of all alternative assets of shares except the value of oil, will grow strongly and consequently, the Tehran Stock Exchange Index will follow this pattern. In this regard, it should be noted that the multi-fold growth of the value of each assets in the monetary and financial markets in a short period of time does not indicate the economic growth in the country, even this matter due to the attract unknowing investors to these markets and it can lead to economic crises.

Drought is an inseparable part of any climate that has significant effects on different parts of the community and it increases the stress on water resources. Therefore, predicting its future status can help planners and decision makers in different sectors. In this study, for predicting drought in different time scales of the SPEI drought index, from 5 different inputs, including SPEI values with a lag of 1 to 5 months, then three intelligent methods including Gene Expression Programming (GEP), Bayesian Network (BN) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were used to predict future values. The results showed that all three methods in the short-term time-scale of the SPEI index are not appropriate so that the best performance in the one-month time scale is related to the Bayesian network model with a correlation coefficient of 0.142 and in the 3-month time-scale is related to the ANN model with correlation coefficient of 0.704. The results also showed that predictive accuracy of the model has a direct correlation with the SPEI calculation scale and, with increasing SPEI time scale, predictive accuracy increases. Also, all three methods have good performance in long-term time-scales.

What determines the fate of organizations today, successes or failures is to achieve an appropriate sustainable business model to create value for key stakeholders. Despite this necessity, few studies have been conducted on sustainable business models in the real world based on a standard model. This study has designed a comprehensive model for the Farassan industrial and manufacturing company, one of the active companies in the pipe industry, by using the soft systems methodology and applying the new business model canvas of value triangular. The current research has two aims first, to identify the key components of the model and second, to design an appropriate model to create value for key stakeholders. From a practical point of view, this research achieves a suitable sustainable business model for the Farassan Company and from a theoretical point of view, it presents a new approach to design sustainable business models. As an applied case study, this research can help organizations and industries in the country to create value for key stakeholders such as shareholders, customers, employees, society and environment and to improve sustainable development.