nader mehregan

Considering the role of the capital market in the economy of countries and studying the performance of this market has a particular importance. One of the factors that affect the performance of the capital market is the decisions made regarding the financial structure of companies’ performance in this market. Today, in fact, the credit rating of companies is largely dependent on their financial structure, or in other words, their capital structure, and in fact, the basis of production and service provision depends on the way financial funds are provided and used. On the other hand, the financial structure of each company is an early warning regarding the number of financial resources of the company, and it is necessary to determine the factors affecting their financial structure in the strategic planning of companies. Many variables affect the financial structures of stock companies, among which we can mention financing with Islamic instruments. Sukuk is one of the important financial instruments and conforms with the Islamic Shari'ah, which provide an alternative source of funding, especially for large (very active) companies, and more efficient sources compared to conventional bonds.

 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:

In financial field, the way in which the company invests is called financial structure. Financial structure, or in other words capital structure, describes the long-term capital financing of a company, which represents debt and equity, and is a type of permanent financing that supports the growth of the company and related assets. One of the most important functions of the Islamic financial system is to facilitate financial flow and guide it towards the most efficient type of investment, and as a facilitator of financial flow, it gives producers the opportunity to move economic resources with greater speed and accuracy by relying on monetary and financial resources. The existence of these types of financial instruments increases capital efficiency and optimal allocation of resources in companies. Since Islamic financing can lead to global financial stability and economic growth; Therefore, wider access to financial services improves social participation and increases market power, and ultimately strengthens protective laws and solves problems and issues of financial development, and increases profitability and improves the financing process of companies.

This research is considered as applied research in terms of its objective; Because it examines the relationships between variables, the subject of the research is the Tehran Stock Exchange Organization in terms of location, and the time scope of the research is from the fiscal year 2010 to 2019 by using the annual data of the companies. The 83 companies were selected as the statistical sample used in the research. In order to estimate the effects of the variables, the panel data technique with Johnssen's approach is used. In this research, the variable of financial structure is used as dependent variable and the variables of ejare sukuk, murabaha sukuk, sode sukuk, istisna sukuk and mosharekat sukuk are used as explanatory variables.

According to the empirical results of this study, all new Islamic financing instruments had a positive effect on the financial structure index (ratio of capital to assets). In the long run, ejare sukuk, murabaha sukuk, sode sukuk, istisna sukuk and mosharekat sukuk explain 7.06, 20.32, 0.07, 3.32 and 0.84 percent respectively, of the changes in the financial structure index.

CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS:

The present study investigates effectiveness of the financial structure of listed companies from new Islamic financing instruments (Sukuk) by using the panel data technique with the Johanssen approach. For this purpose, the data of 83 listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange has been used during the years 2010 to 2019. According to the research results, instruments had a positive effect on the financial structure index (ratio of capital to assets). Accordingly, the issue of sukuk can significantly improve the financial structure of companies. Companies should use a complete combination of modern financing tools (Sukuk) to achieve benefits such as increasing liquidity, increasing shareholders' wealth and increasing diversity in financing sources.

Extended Abstract
This study analyzes and evaluates the effects of deposit interest tax on the quantity of bank deposits. Examining the experience of the past few decades of the country's economy shows that deposit interest tax never been applied and no historical and informational records have been created for it. Therefore, the evaluation of a policy that has not been carried out so far is inherently complicated and has limitations. In this research, in order to reduce the consequences of such restrictions, bank deposit interest rate changes have been considered as an alternative to deposit interest tax. The effect of bank interest rate changes on the quantity of deposits is estimated in the form of an econometric model and with the ARDL method, in which the effect of two variables, the informal market exchange rate and the gross domestic product, is also analyzed. The estimation results show that the real GDP has not been able to statistically affect the amount of deposits. But on the other hand, the exchange rate of the informal market is one of the things that significantly affects the amount of deposits. Based on the designed model, in addition to the estimated coefficient, the effect of the deposit interest tax on the amount of deposits, depends on the nominal rate of deposit interest in the banking system and the inflation rate in the economy..

Tax exemption of bank deposit interest is one of the topics discussed in the Iran's tax system in recent decades. The existence of this exemption in the Iran's economic history is probably aimed for stabilizing economic fluctuations and supporting investors by attracting resources to the banking system. But the results of the analysis of the effect of this exemption show that its costs are more than the benefits. The implications of the tax on deposit interest, which is part of the benchmark tax system (BTS), and the prevailing difficult economic conditions in recent years due to external factors such as international sanctions, are two things that make it necessary to implementation of this tax for Iran's economy. Moreover, a comparative study in this field also shows that deposit interest is taxed in most countries, although at different rates. However, each of them have different approaches in applying this type of tax according to the state of technical and executive infrastructures and the quality of policy making. One of the difficulties of examining the issue is that in the economic history of the country, tax on bank deposit interest has never been applied and no historical and information records have been created for it. Therefore, the policy that has not been implemented until now, its evaluation is inherently complicated and has limitations. In this report, to reduce the consequences of such limitations, bank deposit interest rate changes are considered as an alternative to deposit interest tax. For this reason, such a choice has been made that the application of tax on bank deposit interest implicitly means the change of the said interest rate. However, changes in bank deposit interest rates are different in nature from changes in tax rates on deposit interest. Due to the choice made in the method of achieve to goals of this study, it is necessary to study and analyze the bank interest rate and the effects of its change on the amount of deposits theoretically and empirically. Then, in the next step of the report, the method of evaluating the effects of bank interest rate changes and the econometric model used for this purpose will be examined. Finally, the findings of this evaluation and policy recommendations based on those findings are presented in the final part of the report. Of course, it is an attempt to give recommendations to the limitations that exist in applying findings of the research, attention has been paid and considering these limitations, recommendations and policy measures have been proposed.

The analysis of this study is derived from the analytical framework of brokers' behavior in financial markets, which is presented under basic assumptions such as pursuing maximum profit and utility by brokers. In Iran's economy, due to the prevailing price fluctuations and instability in the last few decades, it is more likely to accept the strong assumptions that form the hard core of the aforementioned analytical framework. But what is important here is whether the transfer of resources and assets from the banking system to other markets was significant enough to affect the performance of other markets. Therefore, the test of the effects of changing the deposit interest rate in this study is the answer to the mentioned question.
The variables whose effect is tested on the volume of non-visual deposits (thousand billion Rials) are; Bank deposit interest rate (percentage), informal market exchange rate (Rials), GDP (billion Rials), whose data are used for the period 1361-1400. The method used for the above effectiveness test is the Autoregressive with distributed lags model (ARDL), which is performed using Eviews software.

The purpose of studying the relationship between the bank interest rate and the volume of non-visual deposits was evaluating the effect of the deposit interest tax on the volume of deposits.
The comparison of the results of all three states that were displayed in the recent tables, induces this view to the reader that the third state; Considering the lowest tax rate that is levied, the small deposit withdrawal that happens from the banking system, and the relatively favorable revenue collection capacity that can be received, it is a suitable option for levying the bank deposit interest tax. Of course, the tax rate of 3% on bank deposit interest can be the beginning of the gradual process of levying tax on deposit interest. The gradual process of implementing this policy will be a useful issue due to the sensitivity of the tax on deposit interest.

Therefore, by fixing the mentioned rates, the effect of deposit interest tax has been analyzed in three cases of 5%, 10% and 3% tax rates. Based on the findings of the model, taking into account the bank interest rate of 20% and the inflation rate of 40% for the economy, applying a tax rate of 3% (10%) will reduce 23 billion Tomans (77 billion Tomans) of deposits from the banking system in one year

Nowadays, income distribution and ways to adjust inequality in income distribution have been considered by many policymakers. The adverse social and economic consequences of increasing income inequality in society are not hidden from anyone, so it has led governments to prioritize improving income distribution. Inequality is defined as the difference between individuals in society in accessing economic resources, and various factors play a role in the unequal distribution of income. Government fiscal policies can certainly be effective in reducing inequality and income redistribution. In most developed countries, government distribution policies are driven by tax policies. In addition to being one of the most important sources of government revenue, tax is one of the most effective tools in improving revenue distribution. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of inheritance tax on income distribution during the period of winter 2006 to autumn 2018. According to the results of this study, inheritance tax and economic growth rate in the long term can reduce the Gini coefficient and improve income distribution. Moreover, rising government spending, rising inflation, rising population growth, and long-term unemployment can increase the Gini coefficient and make income distribution more unfair.

The use of new Islamic financing tools is one of the logical ways to improve the performance of banks in Islamic countries. Islamic instruments are considered as the simplest method of financing and liquidity, which, while relying on physical assets and reducing credit risks, have no legal problems and the experience of recent years indicates the high efficiency of these instruments in strengthening the performance of the country's banks. Accordingly, in the present study, the effect of Islamic financing (through rent sukuk and Murabaha bonds) on the allocation of banking resources in Iran is examined  during the period 2012: 4 to 2021: 2 (based on quarterly data) using Markov Switching econometric technique. The results show that sukuk bonds in both regimes have a positive effect on banking facilities, but nevertheless, the impact coefficients are not very significant. Therefore, we must look for ways to attract foreign and domestic investment in order to issue different types of sukuk in order to increase the resources of banks.

Economic and financial crises, hazards, natural disasters, and are an integral part of human life today, which affect the achievement of continuous and stable economic growth and development. The occurrence of joint shocks will be met with different reactions in different parts of the world. This is the difference between the resilience of different regions of the world in the face of common shocks. Therefore, filling the existing gaps between the economic resilience of developed countries and developing countries in order to achieve continuous and sustainable economic growth and development has a special place. In the present study, three productivity gaps of total factors of production, institution and abundance of natural resources are identified between the economic resilience of developed countries and developing countries. The present study seeks to investigate the effect of three variables of total factor productivity, institution and frequency of natural resources on economic resilience during the period 2007- 2016 using panel data using generalized torque (GMM) method. The results indicate the positive effect of total factor productivity, institutional quality and the intersection of the natural resources abundance and the institution on economic resilience and the negative effect of resource abundance on economic resilience.

One of the most important functions of the Islamic financial system is to facilitate financial flow and divert financial resources for productive investment projects. This system gives banks the opportunity to move economic resources more quickly and accurately, relying on monetary and financial resources, and the existence of Islamic financial instruments increases the productivity and optimal mobilization of banks' resources. In the present study, using Markov switching econometric technique the effect of Islamic financing (through rent sukuk and Murabaha bonds) on mobilizing banking resources in Iran has been investigated during the period 2012:4 to 2021:2 (based on quarterly data). The findings show that sukuk bonds in both regimes have a positive effect on bank deposits. In other words, the expansion of the sukuk has led to growth bank deposits. Therfore, we must look for ways to attract foreign and domestic investment in order to issue different types of sukuk. The use of these assets increases the resources of the banks.

Iran's economy has suffered many economic fluctuations for many years. Therefore, stabilization studies about the country's economy must have a significant contribution. One of the ways of economic stabilization is taxation. Among the types of taxes, automatic stabilization taxes are especially considered. This research aims to measure the effects of taxes and take a look at automatic stabilizer taxes especially. Economic data from 1372:1 to 1397:4 was used to conduct the paper. The SVAR model has also been used to estimate the research model. The results showed that the best automatic stabilizer tax is the Income tax.

The present article aimed to understand the effect of news shocks related to the technology on macroeconomic variables. In this regard, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was used to analyze the reaction of macroeconomic variables in Iran based on seasonal data during 2001-2021. The results indicate that the news shocks increases the productivity of all production factors within one standard deviation. This increase escalates the wage rate as well as the interest rate. Household consumption, production and investment also increase opposing this shock. Due to the increase in production, the working hours will increase and consequently the inflation will decrease. Moreover, the economic prosperity grows due to the increased consumption and production.

Impulses are seen as a fundamental challenge to sustainable and sustainable economic growth and development. When a common shock comes to the economies of different regions of the world, the reaction of the economies of each region is different. The difference in countries' response to common shocks stems from differences in their economic resilience. In the event of adverse shocks, a country with high economic resilience will return to a faster growth path before the outbreak of shock, and a country with low resilience will face disruption and slowdown in economic growth. Therefore, it is important to examine the factors affecting economic resilience in order to deal with the risks facing the economy and achieve continuous and sustainable economic growth and development. Technology Foreign Spillover from the channels of import of intermediate and capital goods, foreign direct investment or brains reverse migration is one of the most important factors that can reduce the limitations of domestic research and development and fill the gap in technology, increase competitiveness and reduce the gap in economic resilience of developing countries and developed countries. The phenomenon of globalization is another important factor that can affect economic resilience by facilitating economic, social and political relations outside the country's borders. Therefore, the present study seeks to investigate the effect of the Technology Foreign Spillovers and globalization on the economic resilience during the period 2007-2016 using panel data using generalized torque (GMM) method. The results indicate a positive and significant effect of the technology foreign spillover through two channels, import of intermediate and capital goods and globalization on economic resilience.

The currency crisis is a phenomenon that has been widespread in recent years in Iran's economic and political meetings. Regardless of the political effects of this phenomenon, the occurrence of the currency crisis with increasing uncertainty will lead to undesirable effects on the economic structure of the country. The conversion of assets into foreign currency, capital outflows and the dollarization of the economy is only part of the consequences of the currency crisis. Therefore, in this study, using the quarterly data from spring 2002 to winter 2017 and using the Markov switching model, the currency crisis in Iran has been modeled. Then, based on the estimated coefficients of the model, the Currency Market Pressure Index during the spring of 2018 to the fall of 2021 has been predicted. Evidence from model estimation showed that economic growth, current account balance, capital account balance, real interest rate and long-term foreign debt have a negative effect and budget deficit, risk aversion level, foreign exchange rent and short-term foreign debt have a positive and significant effect on on the likelihood of a currency crisis in Iran. The estimation model also has a relatively good out-of-sample predictions.

The economy of a country undergoes many fluctuations over time. Due to dependence on oil revenues, war, embargo and other economic and political tensions, Iran's economy has been fluctuating greatly and experiencing many periods of prosperity and recession in the last thirty years. One of the duties defined for governments in public finance is economic stabilization. Economic stabilization makes the path of economic growth smoother. The smoothing of the growth path also makes the economic environment more attractive for investment and production. Governments have different instrument for economic stabilization. These instruments affect the supply and demand system. One of the policies that affects the demand side of the economy is the financial policies. These policies are divided into two categories: discretionary and non-discretionary. Discretionary financial policies were criticized by economists such as Friedman. Critics state that discretionary policies do not have the appropriate speed to stabilize the economic fluctuations. Automatic stabilizers, however, are not discretionary policies and can respond appropriately to criticism. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of the automatic stabilization of financial policies, especially tax policies, on Iran's business cycles.

The data collection of this research was done through library work. The data were collected from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the National Statistics Center. The data were seasonal, ranging from the spring of 1993 to the autumn of 2018. The business cycle of Iran's economy was extracted using the Hodrick-Prescott filter. According to the studies conducted, the ʎ of the extraction filter was 677. The unit root was calculated using the KPSS test. All the variables at this level were stationary. By estimating a SVAR model, we tried to check the dynamic relationships among the variables. The tools that were used in structural vector autoregressive models were impulse response functions, forecast error variance decomposition and historical decomposition. The counterfactual analysis was based on historical decomposition.

The SVAR model was formulated with the impulse response functions for twenty periods. According to the results, the effect of the government expenditure shock on the business cycle is low, but it shows up positive. The effect of the indirect tax shock on the cycle of GDP is very small and negligible. The effect of the direct tax shock on the business cycle is estimated counter-cyclically and found to be of a low effect.The results of the variance decomposition show that, in the first period, more than 92% of the change in the business cycle is explained by itself, 5% by the government expenditure shock, 1% by the direct taxes shock, and very small amounts by the indirect taxes shock. After 20 periods, the contribution of the business cycle in explaining its own changes decreases by less than 5%. Most of this share is added to the share of the government expenditure shock, raising it to 9.27% to explain the changes in the business cycle. After twenty periods, direct and indirect taxes are only equal to 2 and 1%, respectively, and they serve as the cause of changes in the production cycle.Historical decomposition shows that in the period from 1993 to 2018, direct taxes had a small contribution to the business cycles of Iran's economy, but there were countercyclical effects on the business cycle different years. These effects can be seen during both boom and recession. Indirect taxes have had counter-cyclical effects only in a few years, which have only been anti-prosperity. Historical decomposition shows that government spending has been able to exert anti-cyclical effects in some cases, though negligible.

According to empirical studies and the financial structure of the Iranian government, it was expected that the effects of stabilizing taxes on the production cycle would be insignificant. The tax ratio on GDP in Iran is about one third of the usual rate in the world. What matters was the way these taxes were effective; they affect the GDP in a pro-cyclical or counter-cyclical way. In this research, an attempt was made to investigate the role of taxes and the automatic stabilization of the government's financial policies in the economy of Iran. The results showed that, in terms of quantity, the government spending has a greater effect on stabilizing the economy (although this effect is small). However, in terms of counter recession effects, direct taxes can have a good stabilizing effect on the production cycle in the economy, although it is natural that the contribution of few tax revenues from the government's revenues in terms of quantity does not have a significant effect on the current economy of Iran. By increasing the share of tax revenues from the total revenues of the government, it is hoped that the counter recessionary effects of direct taxes will help stabilize (automatically) Iran's economy and reduce some of the economic fluctuations of the country's production. It is suggested that the government's financial policy should be made with special attention to direct taxes. By increasing the share of direct taxes, there will be fairer taxation as well as a relative improvement in fluctuations at the country's macroeconomic level.

In this study, risk aversion behavior in the Iranian economy has been explained. For this purpose, using various econometric methods, risk aversion parameter and sanctions intensity index in the Iranian economy during the period of April 2007 to March 2020 has been estimated. Then the average individual and social characteristics in Iranian society and inequality index using households' income and expenditur survey data and household income is calculated. The results show that the increase in the average age of the population, rental rates, gender ratio of women in society, the share of the married population in the population, fluctuations in GDP and the intensification of sanctions lead to an increase in risk aversion in the economy. Also, increasing economic growth, years of education, urbanization, household size, increasing income inequality, improving labor market conditions and car ownership rates are factors in improving risk taking in the economy.

In the present era, due to the development of transportation system and communication technology, the economies and trade of countries are intertwined. This highlights the vital importance of foreign trade as the main lever for economic growth and development. Meanwhile, trade between Iran and Afghanistan due to its proximity and high potential for trade and economic cooperation doubles the importance of the issue. But the imposition of economic sanctions on Iran poses a variety of obstacles and restrictions on trade between the two countries. Therefore, in this study, the effect of economic sanctions on trade between Iran and Afghanistan during the years (2001-2009) has been studied and analyzed by Eviews10, using a Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square method. Economic sanctions have entered the model in the form of a dummy variable. The findings show that the imposition of any economic sanctions has led to an increase in long-term trade between Iran and Afghanistan. Therefore, the two countries should consider the necessary strategies to reduce the effect of sanctions.

The capital market plays an important role in the economy of any country and can contribute to economic growth and development by financing the capital needed by manufacturing firms. Given the importance of the capital market, stock prices as the most important component of this market must be closely monitored, as a steady and dramatic decline in stock prices can lead to a crisis in the capital market. One of the key tools of capital market surveillance is an early warning system that can give policymakers pre-crisis warnings to minimize the negative effects of this phenomenon by making timely and accurate decisions. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of risk preferences in the occurrence of crises in the Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, in this study, firstly, using monthly data from April 2007 to July 2019, investors' risk aversion index was estimated and then this variable, along with other control variables, was used to modeling the capital market crisis. The results showed that the research model is able to predict approximately 78% of crisis situations and 95% of non-crisis situations. Empirical evidence suggests that the key role of investors' preferences for risk in the event of a capital market crisis.

Unequal distribution of income and wealth in society will cause serious problems in the economic, social and political spheres. In this regard, tax resources are the most important tools of the government to improve and redistribute income. Considering the role and importance of taxes in income distribution in society, this study intends to evaluate the tax system in terms of income distribution in the provinces of the country using data from 2006 to 2016 and the generalized torque model. In this regard, the effect of corporate income tax, income tax on individuals, wealth tax, tax on goods and services, inflation rate, unemployment rate and GDP per capita on the Gini coefficient (income distribution inequality index) has been studied. The results of model estimation show that the effect of taxes on goods and services of the provinces and the unemployment rate of the provinces on the Gini coefficient is positive. In other words, examining the relationship between these variables and the Gini coefficient shows that these variables are directly related to the Gini coefficient. As these variables increase, the Gini coefficient increases and income inequality increases. The effect of income tax on legal entities (companies) of provinces, tax on income of natural persons, provinces, GDP per capita of provinces and wealth tax of provinces on Gini coefficient is negative and significant, in other words, these variables are inversely related to Gini coefficient. As variables increase, the Gini coefficient decreases.

Iran's economy has been suffering from the dominance of fiscal policies and financial repression for many years, so that this issue has become one of the structural challenges of the country's economy. Banks, as one of the most important parts of macroeconomics, play an important role in the mechanism of transferring monetary policy to the real sector of the economy. Monetary policy transmission operates through various channels: the lending channel, the balance sheet channel, and the capital channel. Examining how the role of banks in monetary policy transmission is affected by government fiscal repression policies provides useful information for monetary and financial policymakers and banking activists. In this study, we tried to investigate the effect of financial repression on the monetary policy transmission through the lending channel of the country's banks. First, an indicator for the financial repression variable was defined using the PCA method, and then the relationship was estimated using the SVAR method and instantaneous response functions and using seasonal data for the period 1999- 2017. The results show that financial repression policies have a significant effect on bank lending and reduce banks' lending power. This issue, along with the negative real interest rate of bank facilities, causes a decrease in the profitability index and loss of banks.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of CAMEL financial health indicators on country،s banks lending within the bank lending channel. In order to analyze the Heterogeneity of banks' behavior in response to monetary policy, the variables called the interaction effect of the CAMEL indicators whit monetary policy have been defined in the model that are obtained by multiplying the monetary policy in each of these Ratios. In model estimation using GMM method uses the balance sheet and profit and loss statement panel data of the 24 banks in the period 1384-1396. results indicate that the monetary policy variable -monetary base- has a positive and significant relationship with bank lending and the CAMEL ratios change the intensity of monetary policy effectiveness on banks lending. In other words CAMEL indicators are a factor for banks to behave differently in response to monetary policy, which is the heterogeneous concept of banks' behavior. the impact of monetary policy on bank lending will deacrease with higher levels of liquidity and management quality indicators. But capital adequacy and asset quality strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy on bank lending and earning indicator doesn’t have any effect. Also the degree of competition in the banking industry strengthens the effectiveness of monetary policy on bank lending.

One of the most important aspects of investment is determining the “optimal investment portfolio”. To date, scientific research has been conducted to determine the optimal portfolio with “artificial intelligence” and “Fuzzy logic”. However, we determine the optimal portfolio based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. On the other hand, several factors affect returns, which is one of the most important issues in investment decision-makings, and various models have been developed to analyze the return of “capital” and “other assets”. In this regard, some of the most important models include linear and non-linear models, artificial neural network models, Fama–French model, Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, and optimal stable model. All of these models are indicative of the use of quantitative methods and models in the investment industry. One of the causes of using these models is developing the financial economy. In fact, the development of financial economy has more increased with the concept of “portfolio optimization”. In fact, the portfolio optimization and diversification concept is the basis of developing and expanding classical finance and financial decision-making. Financial markets, especially the capital market, can have a great deal of relevance to other sectors of the economy. In the present study, we design and calibrate a new Keynesian DSGE model in relation to the optimal investment portfolio and effectiveness of shocks (e.g., productivity and foreign exchange earnings fluctuation) on macroeconomics variables.

Financial markets, especially the capital market, may have strong links with other economic sectors. One of the most important aspects of investment is to determine the “optimal investment portfolio”. To date, some research has been conducted to determine the optimal portfolio with” artificial intelligence” and “Fuzzy Logic”. However, we determine the optimal portfolio based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. This study examines the design and calibration of the new Keynesian dynamic stochastic equilibrium model related to an optimal investment portfolio and the effect of shocks such as productivity shocks and foreign exchange earnings’ fluctuation shocks on macroeconomic variables. To this end, we design a DSGE model with sectors of households and firms, government and the central bank, and calibrate the model’s parameters after logarithm–Linearization using seasonal data of 1996-2016 and results of empirical studies. In the designed model, households maintain a portfolio of stocks, cash, securities, and other assets based on risk and return or an optimal portfolio. In the end, we assess the impulse response function of economic variables to shocks of productivity and foreign exchange earnings. Ultimately, the comparison of the present moments in the current study and moments of real data indicates the relative success of the model with regard to the realities of Iranian economy.

Women's employment is one of the most important issues for government officials because unemployment of this group of people is one of the most important socio-economic challenges that can have devastating effects on economic growth. Business cycles are one of the factors that cause changes in the employment status of women and affect the share of women's employment in times of recession and boom. Therefore, the present study, using the NARDL method, has investigated the asymmetric effects of business cycles on women's employment share of Iran during the period 1966-2018. The results indicate that a positive or negative shock in business cycles has asymmetric effects on women's employment share. The results also showed that in the short term, positive business shock, negative and significant effect; and the negative shock of business cycles has a positive and significant effect on the share of women's employment and in the long run, this effect will last. other results show that in the short and long term, the fertility rate variable has a negative and significant effect on the share of women's employment. however, the significant effect of variables government spending on education and inflation rates on the share of women's employment in the short and long term is rejected. also, the minimum wage variable has a positive and significant effect on the share of women's employment in the short and long term.

One of the most important macroeconomic goals of countries is to create the necessary conditions to promote continuous and stable economic growth, which economic complexity can be considered as one of the most important sectors to achieve this goal. Productivity is one of the main variables affecting economic complexity; therefore, strengthening it can increase economic complexity. To enhance productivity, efficiency components can be examined, the most important of which are increasing the quality of training, in-service training, effective use of talents, providing financial resources for the production of diverse and less inclusive goods, access to financial services, the availability of the latest technologies, the absorption of technology by companies, foreign direct investment and technology transfer. Strengthening these components leads to the acquisition of superior knowledge and technology and promotes economic complexity. Therefore, this study with emphasizing on efficiency; examines the impact of the components of strengthening productivity on the economic complexity of selected countries at the efficiency-driven stage and on the verge of entering the innovation phase during the 2006-2016 to use of method the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) will pay. The results show that exchange rate variable, strengthening productivity and its components, basic requirements and innovation has a positive impact on economic complexity.

Iran is one of the earthquake-prone countries in the world which has a lot of ethnic and religious diversity. Given the importance of people's donation in helping victims of natural disasters, knowing the impact of factors such as religion and ethnicity on people's donation which is the subject of this article, is very important in post-disaster relief. For this purpose, a field study was conducted including the completion of more than 900 questionnaires in the cities of Qorveh, Takab, Sanandaj and Znjan and the city of Bijar was selected as the hypothetical city where the earthquake occurs. Contingent valuation method and double bounded dichotomous choice questionnaire were used to estimate the willingness to donate. The logit model was used to analyze the results which showed that the effect of religion on people's donations is greater than the effect of ethnicity.

The 2007 financial crisis clearly demonstrate the role of capital assets in the emergence of economic fluctuations and business cycles. Physical assets with a dual role as a factor in production and use as collateral to obtain loans from the banking system in two separate channels affect the real sector of the economy and lead to intensification of product fluctuations and business cycles. Emprical evidence of Iran’s economy indicates that the price of capital assets has been rising and fluctuating over time for various reasons, the most important of which are the role of oil revenues and related shocks. Accordingly, with regard to the collateral effect channel, there is an expectation that by creating a positive oil shock and increasing oil revenues, government spending and, consequently, liquidity, the price of private equity assets, as a acceptable collateral for the banking system, will increase. This issue will lead to an increase in the amount of loans received by the private sector, the volume of investment and output. For this purpose, this study has examined this important issue using data related to the period of 1966- 2017 of the Iranian economy and the model of structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR). The results of the model confirm the effect of collateral in short periods. Therefore, it is suggested that if the policymaker seeks to stabilize the product in the short term, then it is necessary to adopt an appropriate countercyclical policy on how to pay loans to the private sector in order to control the volume of private sector investment and stabilize the output.

The occurrence of currency crises in recent decades has been one of the problems of the international monetary system. These crises impose heavy costs on the country where they occur and even other countries. For this reason, in recent years, systems for early warning of these crises have been developed to prevent the occurrence of such crises by their early detection and providing sufficient time for policymakers. Meanwhile, Iran's economy has faced several currency crises in the post-revolutionary years and has incurred heavy costs. Under these circumstances, designing an early warning system for currency crises in the Iranian economy can bring many benefits. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to design an early warning system for currency crises in Iran. Based on it, the endogenous crises that occurred in the period under review were identified. Using this system, it is possible to predict future crises and identify the factors affecting the occurrence and intensification of these crises separately in periods of tranquil and crisis.

In order to achieve the above goals, this article used the Markov-switching approach and the quarterly data of the Iranian economy during a period from February 1988 to March 2016. For this purpose, first the components of the designed early warning system, i.e. the dependent variable and the leading indicators of the crisis, were introduced. Afterwards, to estimate the model, first the unit root tests of the variables were used, and then the early warning system was estimated based on the Markov-switching approach in periods of tranquil and crisis. Finally, after diagnostic tests, the in-sample and out-of-sample prediction performances of the system were investigated and the characteristics of periods of tranquil and crisis were studied.

The results indicate that the designed system has a high ability to identify the past crises and anticipate future crises in the Iranian economy. Also, according to the results, in tranquil states, the increase of inflation rate, international reserves to foreign debt ratio, M2 to international reserves ratio, growth of foreign exchange earnings from oil exports and growth of domestic credit have positive and significant effects on the index of foreign exchange market pressure and the greater probability of a currency crisis. But in these tranquil states, the increase in the ratio of foreign exchange earnings to international reserves as well as the growth of industrial production has had negative and significant effects on this index. In other words, they have helped to prevent the occurrence of the currency crisis. Moreover, based on these results, in the crisis states, an increase in the inflation rate, the ratio of international reserves to foreign debt, M2 to international reserves ratio and budget balance to real gross domestic product ratio, with positive and significant effects on the foreign exchange market pressure, will intensify such crises. Of course, if a currency crisis occurs, the increase in the ratio of foreign exchange earnings to international reserves, the growth of domestic credit, the growth of industrial production and growth of real gross domestic product will help improve the crisis state. Finally, based on these results, in the tranquil states, inflation is the most important warning indicator and also the most important factor in increasing the probability of a currency crisis. The growth of industrial production is also the main factor reducing the probability of the crisis. Also, in the crisis states, inflation is the most important factor to intensify the crisis, while the ratio of foreign exchange earnings to international reserves and growth of real gross domestic product are the most important factors in improving the crisis state respectively.

Based on the early warning system designed for the Iranian economy, the occurrence of currency crises and the intensification of crisis states in Iran are due to a set of macroeconomic imbalances. These imbalances and the problems in the monetary, financial and foreign sectors as well as dependence on oil revenues have provided the basis for currency crises in the Iranian economy. However, the results showed that it is possible to deal with the occurrence of a currency crisis in Iran with policies such as inflation control, strengthening and proper management of foreign exchange resources, controlling liquidity growth, managing domestic credit, supporting industrial production, strengthening gross domestic product and controlling the government budget deficit. Also, it is possible to control the critical situation in the event of a currency crisis with such policies.

In this paper, the effect of social capital on the efficiency of government expenditures has been studied in the two sectors of education and health during the period 1364-1396. social capital has been estimated by The Multiple Causes-Impact (MIMIC) approach, and efficiency of government expenditures in both education and health is estimated by the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Bootstrap data envelopment analysis approaches. The effect of social capital on the efficiency of government expenditures are measured by the regression model of the deficit probe in both education and health.
 The results of estimating social capital show that the trend of social capital is declining by the method of  Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes during the study period. Also, the efficiency scores of government expenditures has been measured by Data Envelopment Analysis and Bootstrap Data Envelopment Analysis in Iran. The results show that on average, public spending is inefficient in education and health.
Findings of the fractional probit model show, the effect of social capital is positive and significant on the efficiency of government spending in both education and health. The effect of per capita income, economic growth, government size, inflation and trade openness is different on efficiency of government expenditures in education and health sectors.
 For example, the impact of economic growth is positive on the efficiency of government education and health spending. While the effect of government size is negative on the efficiency of government education and health spending.