جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « Future Study » در نشریات گروه « جغرافیا »

Urbanization, which began in simple, centralized societies that were primarily reflections of different social forces, has led to significant environmental changes in cities, especially with the increase in urban population, which has led to the collapse of the urban services distribution system and the unequal distribution of citizens using urban services. The current study aims to evaluate the distribution of urban services in Yasouj city from the perspective of spatial justice and to identify the root causes of imbalances and inequalities to offer a suitable solution. This is because the issue of spatial justice is crucial to the distribution of urban services. This article used a descriptive-Causal research method. The distribution pattern of urban services was determined using the Average Nearest Neighbor (ANN) and network analysis index, and the contributing elements in the imbalance of urban services were determined using the Delphi technique. The relationship between the variables, their level of influence, the prioritization of each variable, and eventually the relevant measures to lessen the imbalance of urban services was determined after the elements in the MICMAC program were found. The results collected demonstrate the cluster distribution of urban services as well as the centralized, unprincipled, and ineffective distribution of these services at the level of Yasouj city's regions and districts. The analysis's findings also indicated that the unequal distribution of urban services in Yasouj city is mostly caused by permissive rules and regulations, high economic rents, and intense owner pressure. Finally, under the findings, suggestions for establishing spatial justice in the city of Yasouj and a fair allocation of services were made.

Considering the complex nature of mental images of the future construction and spatial reconstruction of cities and metropolitan areas as well as existing complexities, it is particularly important to avoid a positivist and single-layer view of urban-regional studies. This study considers perspective building in urban and regional planning and the creation of alternative futures as a requirement for an intelligent and modified choice of future research methods. Causal layered analysis, introduced under a critical paradigm, is one of the most important future research methods. This method, like many others, is associated with gaps and limitations and needs to be adjusted. This research seeks to critically analyze this method and accordingly, the number of layers of this method should be reduced to 3 in accordance with criticisms and covering the critical paradigm dimensions. The approach of the first layer should be changed from scientific-experimental to an interpretive one with a critical attitude. And, the second layer's approach to post-exploration, which is aimed at identifying the obvious and hidden mechanisms, and finally deconstructing and criticizing the functional basis of the third layer. Then, according to the changes of each of the layers and the direction of applying the model in urban and regional planning, a set of qualitative methods is mentioned and an analytical device of the political economy of space is used to mount this model.

In Iran, the border areas are at a much lower level than the interior areas in terms of their development. Solving these problems requires the use of approaches that take steps towards a desirable future by knowing the past and identifying the existing capabilities. Futuristic studies as a new approach can play a significant role in shaping the future by analyzing the existing resources. This study is done to identify the major factors influencing these residential areas in the next 25 years. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. MicMac software was used to analyze the questionnaire and cross-effects matrix. The results of the study show that there are 21 important factors that influence the future housing situation in Kermanshah province. The most influential variables for the future of the housing system of Kermanshah province are the variables whose alteration can cause a change in the arrangement of housing networks in the province. Variables such as proximity to the international border, rail and road transportation network, and border markets are highly influential ones. Five possible situations for the future of the province's housing system were also identified, with the likelihood of each of these situations depending on the attention or lack of attention to each of the variables.

High-rise construction is one of the important approaches of the big cities of the world, which has become popular due to the increasing population growth, scarcity and high cost of land, and horizontal development of cities. One of the most important dimensions that has influenced the process of high-rise construction is the environmental dimension. For this reason, this study was done to evaluate the environmental effects of high-rise development in Ahvaz city using futurology approach. This study is practical in terms of its purpose and analytical-exploratory in terms of its nature and method. To collect the data, a questionnaire and Delphi technique and document-library studies were used. The findings showed that among the 33 main factors affecting the environmental sustainability of high-rise construction in Ahvaz city, 18 variables are key and influential factors. The variables that have the most influence on the environmental future of high-rise development in Ahvaz city are population factors, attention to the economic values of recycling, access to sunlight, bicycles, lack of urban parks and open spaces, temperature, humidity, wind, touch, compliance of environmental laws with the landscape, ecological elements, land and soil conditions, pedestrian crossing, topography and geology, development of environmental diplomacy plans, smell, public transportation, and socio-cultural issues. Due to the high influence of the micro-climatic and socio-cultural factors regarding environmental sustainability on the high-rise building process by Ahvaz city officials, considering the issues can determine the success or failure of the sustainable environmental indicators of Ahvaz city high-rise development. Finally, solutions are suggested to improve the current situation, which require the serious attention of managers and urban planners.

The aim of this study was to investigate the future study of urban resilience of Tabriz metropolis against flood chaos. In this regard, Tabriz resilience scenarios were formulated and the desired scenario was determined and executive strategies for the desired scenarios were developed using the SOAR model and the quality house matrix (HOQ). Thus, using the information obtained from the current situation study and survey of experts (10 experts by snowball method) and using Scenario wizard software, Tabriz metropolis resilience scenarios (scenarios with high probability to scenarios With low probability) has been compiled. Then, from a variety of scenarios, appropriate scenarios are selected that are tailored to the desired future. Understanding the key issues, understanding the current situation, and understanding the possible, probable and believable futures are the sides of a triangle that make it possible to map out the desired vision or future for planning. Finally, strategies for improving resilience regarding the desired scenarios were formulated, executive strategies for the desired scenario were presented, and superior strategies were selected. The results showed that the use of educational programs, domestic and foreign experiences, the desire of citizens to learn knowledge and awareness and benefit from the programs of domestic and foreign organizations in order to increase awareness and knowledge of citizens is the best The strategy is to increase the resilience of Tabriz.

Today, the significant increase in the use of private cars affects public transportation and is one of the most prominent issues in many cities. This issue can lead to harmful environmental consequences such as traffic congestion, global warming, climate change, environmental pollution and socio-economic problems. Therefore, the consequences of these problems can be avoided by implementing the principles of transportation-oriented development in Tabriz city. In fact, by using the transportation-oriented development approach, it is possible to turn Tabriz into a development center through planning and organizing important public transportation centers. The purpose of this research is to analyze the factors affecting the future planning of transportation-oriented development of Tabriz city.   

This research was carried out in terms of applied purpose and in terms of descriptive-analytical and survey methodology using a researcher-made questionnaire. The structural equation model was used to test the hypotheses. The statistical community includes experts in the field of strategic planning and foresight of transportation development in Tabriz city. The sampling method in this research is random purposeful sampling. Usually, the number of experts is chosen between 10-50 people, and in this research, 20 experts and specialists were questioned. Convergent validity test was used for the validity of the questions and Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to check the reliability of the questions. The statistical analysis of the data was done by structural equation method in SmartPLS and SPSS software. The indicators examined in this research include: density, urban development, economic development, real estate value, environment, health of the city and citizens, choice and type of travel, greenhouse effects.

According to the results, the lack of a practical and efficient planning approach that includes a wide range of urban planning components including transportation, land use, and infrastructure requires researchers to develop integrated planning methods. One of these approaches, which can adequately deal with the planning of scattered urban areas, is transportation-oriented development planning. The sensitivity analysis showed that changing the weight of indicators in optimistic, pessimistic and average views has no significant effect on the levels of transportation-oriented development. As a result, the determined transportation development levels showed a high degree of reliability at the neighborhood scale in Tabriz city. According to the purpose of the research, 3 scenarios were done, according to the results of the research, the first scenario is sustainable and green transportation. It is an optimistic scenario in which most of the goals of sustainable transportation have been realized. The second scenario (continuation of the status quo and dependence on private cars): In this scenario, the continuation of the status quo in the transportation network and car ownership and the tendency to use private cars among citizens has increased. The third scenario (chaos): It is a scenario in which there is a long distance to reach the goals of sustainable transportation. 

Transportation within the city of Tabriz is facing problems such as weak public transportation, increase in car ownership, crowded roads, inappropriate use of land, lack of side facilities, etc. The failure to solve these problems along with the uncertainties that may occur in the future can cause a crisis and will definitely take us away from the goals of sustainable development. Planning in the field of transportation and achieving sustainable development requires a long-term view that is associated with uncertainty; therefore, it requires the use of approaches that have the ability to deal with uncertainties. The lack of a functional and efficient planning approach including a wide range of urban planning components including transportation, land use, and infrastructure requires researchers to develop integrated planning methods.

The aim of this study was to plan and feasibility study of healing gardens as a planned landscape and its effects on mental health and repair of mental injuries in coronary and post-coronary conditions, and on the apparent healing effect of greenery on physical and mental health, especially in urban conditions. Covid Crisis 19 emphasizes; Which is a wave of panic disorders; It has shaped obsessive-compulsive disorder and anxiety disorders in human societies. The type of research was applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical method using survey method. The statistical population is 35 experts familiar with the subject of healing gardens in Iranian cities (non-probability sampling and chain sampling) has been used in the form of Delphi technique. The research tool was a researcher-made questionnaire that was provided to experts. Despite the passage of time in the experience of this epidemic, there is still no comprehensive and operational understanding in various scientific fields, including crisis management, and for the first time, healing gardens as a solution for urban planning and mental health management in this study. will be examined. The results of this study show the necessity of designing and redesigning the healing garden based on the healing and ecological components, especially in the critical conditions of Covid 19 in Hasheminejad Garden of Zanjan as a pilot, and in the absence of intelligent planning in healing the garden, Covid 19 will suffer adverse consequences for individuals in society.

The complexity and multidimensionality of urban problems and issues, along with the rapid growth of technology and the globalization of production patterns, have increased, and the instability of conditions and the possibility of various futures have made it difficult to make decisions and plan regarding urban issues. In such a situation, sustainable urban regeneration with a forward-looking approach can be a solution to the problems of inefficient urban tissues and especially historical tissues.

In terms of practical purpose, the current research is based on the new methods of future research, analytical and exploratory science, which was carried out by applying a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Research data has been collected using the survey method and cross-effects matrix. The exploratory analysis of the matrix of cross effects has been done using Micmac software.

Based on the diagram and dispersion of the variables on the map, the variables of this research are divided into five categories of influential input variables, two-way variables of risk and goal, and dependent variables and independent variables. Based on the intensity of influence and direct and indirect influence of the variables, finally, 9 key drivers were identified as the main factors of re-creating the historical context of Kerman city, which are the two-faceted and influential variables.

The key drivers of re-creating the historical context of Kerman city are: preserving the originality of the design and effect, creating an integrated management of the historical context, reusing the building and modernizing the uses, functional diversity and creating vitality, creating legal and legal instruments, people's participation. and the private sector in the process of regeneration, paying subsidies and bank facilities and creating tax exemptions, a comprehensive model of planning and management and the role of culture and cultural industries in regeneration.

Futures Studies in Planning the Self-Employed Businesses Continuity for Women-Headed Households will find the key drivers, key variables, and uncertainties in the development of women's economic empowerment, and will shape the desired future management. The purpose of this study was to identify the factors affecting the management of women's self-employed business continuity management in Chardavol Township, identifying key variables and developing effective scenarios for its realization. The purpose of this study is practical and it is a descriptive-analytical research conducted with an interpretive structural approach to measure the interactions of variables. In terms of the nature of the data, this research is a combination (quantitative and qualitative) and is based on documentary and survey data collection method. The results showed that out of the developed scenarios, there are 6 scenarios with strong adaptation to the future of self-employed women business continuity management in Chardavol. Of the six scenarios mentioned, three scenarios one, two, and three are perfectly desirable, and scenario 1 is the best-case scenario of managing self-employed business continuity of women-headed households in Chardavol.The results showed that out of the developed scenarios, there are 6 scenarios with strong adaptation to the future of self-employed women business continuity management in Chardavol. Of the six scenarios mentioned, three scenarios one, two, and three are perfectly desirable, and scenario 1 is the best-case scenario of managing self-employed business continuity of women-headed households in Chardavol.The results showed that out of the developed scenarios, there are 6 scenarios with strong adaptation to the future of self-employed women business continuity management in Chardavol. Of the six scenarios mentioned, three scenarios one, two, and three are perfectly desirable, and scenario 1 is the best-case scenario of managing self-employed business continuity of women-headed households in Chardavol.

The continuous development of urban population and their growing needs, widespread urbanization in the developing countries, demographic changes, environmental challenges, economic problems, urban transportation problems, advances in information and communication technology, and bureaucracy have made the smart city formulation and smart city governance necessary. Regarding the city of Rasht, it can be said that this city has not been able to imagine the future of development and make progress in the field of smart urban governance. The present study aimed to investigate the key driving forces of smart governance with a futures research approach. The study was applied and descriptive-analytical and exploratory in terms of method. Data collection is documentary and survey based on Delphi technique. The statistical population included all the urban specialists in Rasht. From which 45 people were selected as the sample using Rasco's rules through snowball sampling method. 8 components and 20 driving forces regarding smart urban governance were compiled and the questionnaire of interaction effects matrix (weight 0 to 3) was provided to the specialists. Finally, key driving forces were extracted using MicMac software. The results of the analysis indicated that the education of citizenship and raising the awareness, citizen participation and commitment of officials are among the first three driving forces of smart city governance in Rasht.

 Due to the expansion of cities and population growth, the study of residential satisfaction of residents to meet future needs and achieve sustainable development, has found a special place in various studies. Residential satisfaction is examined on the basis of many components and is considered as a tool for decision making and policy making. In this regard, the study of residential satisfaction in the city of Rasht as the largest and most populous city in Gilan province is important. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to assess the components of good urban governance in creating residential satisfaction in Rasht with a future study approach. The present study has been applied in terms of descriptive-analytical and exploratory methods. Data collection is by documentary method as well as survey based on Delphi technique. First, 35 factors were identified as effective factors in residential satisfaction in Rasht according to the components of good urban governance and in the next step, Micmac software was used to analyze the data and the type of questionnaire was a matrix of interactions and According to the opinions of experts and specialists in urban planning in Rasht. The weighting of this questionnaire is measured by pairwise comparisons and the relationship between variables and numbers between zero and three. Finally, 13 key factors were identified and 29 possible situations were considered for key factors. The Wizard Scenario Questionnaire was also designed as an interaction matrix and provided to experts. the questionnaire ranges from +3 to -3 varying. management and integrated urban planning, participation of local citizens and communities, the existence of infrastructure and mechanisms necessary for citizen intervention and cooperation with the municipality has the highest consistency value among key factors in improving the quality of the Rasht city's residential satisfaction within the framework of good urban governance.the study of residential satisfaction of residents has been one of the most important research topics in various fields.  Residential satisfaction assessment is based on many components and covers a wide range; Such as social-components, cultural-components, physical-components, service-components, and economic-components There are several main reasons for paying special attention to this issue. From the first point of view, residents' evaluation of residential environments can be considered as one of the most important criteria for measuring the achievement of goals and evaluating the success rate of any project. From the second point of view, residential satisfaction is considered as one of the important indicators of the general quality of life of individuals. Rasht is the most populous city in Gilan province. For this reason, the existence of components of good urban governance in meeting the needs of this population and housing satisfaction of people is necessary. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the components of good urban governance in creating residential satisfaction.

The present study is applied in terms of descriptive-analytical method, which in line with the basics of futures science, research on the situation of residential satisfaction in the framework of good urban governance in Rasht. In this regard, data collection in the theoretical part by documentary method and in the practical part by survey, has been based on the Delphi technique. Due to the fact that Mick Mac software and Scenario Wizard have been used to analyze the data, the type of questionnaire is in the form of a matrix of interactions and is based on the opinions of experts and specialists. To identify the key factors by Mick Mac software, after identifying the factors affecting residential satisfaction, an interaction questionnaire was designed. Its validity was conducted by experts in the form of interviews. The statistical population of the study is 20 experts and specialists (geography and urban planning of Rasht). The weighting of this questionnaire is measured by pairwise comparisons and the relationship between variables and numbers between zero and three. Then, different possible situations were considered for each of the key factors and interaction effects were designed in the form of a questionnaire. Then the questionnaire was completed by the statistical community and through the Ensemble feature in the Scenario Wizard software, the questionnaires were entered into the software.

 Mick Mac software and cross-matrix analysis have been used to extract the key factors affecting residential satisfaction in Rasht within the framework of good urban governance and the output of this software (key factors) will be used as input to the Wizard scenario software. 35 factors as effective factors in residential satisfaction in Rasht in the framework of good urban governance have been identified and studied with Mick Mac software to extract the main factors affecting residential satisfaction in Rasht (in this software the effect of variables on each other from zero to three Is valued). 29 possible situations were created for 13 key factors affecting the improvement of residential satisfaction in Rasht. The scenarios provided by ScenarioWizard software were 10,000 scenarios, of which 1294 are valid and 2 scenarios are highly compatible. Of the two scenarios with high compatibility, the first scenario shows the favorable conditions and the second scenario shows the critical conditions for the future of residential satisfaction in Rasht within the framework of good urban governance. In order to improve the situation of residential satisfaction, the possible probable situation should be strengthened and the possible critical situation should be weakened.

 According to the obtained results, the first scenario is the best progressive scenario for improving the residential satisfaction situation in Rasht within the framework of good urban governance. With the realization of this scenario, 100% of the determinants of residential satisfaction in Rasht will be achieved. All 13 key factors in this scenario are among the possible probable situations and there are no critical and static factors in this scenario. The possible situations selected in this scenario have many positive effects on the factor of improving the residential satisfaction situation in Rasht within the framework of good urban governance. The second scenario is a critical scenario that with the realization of this scenario, the situation of influential factors in the future of residential satisfaction in Rasht will reach its worst. It is better for the initial measures to be in the direction of resolving the critical situations so that the system moves towards stability and the influential factors in the first scenario have their positive impact process. Integrated urban management and planning, citizen participation and local communities, the existence of necessary infrastructure and mechanisms for citizen intervention and cooperation of non-governmental organizations with the municipality are among the highest values of compatibility related to key factors in the future of residential satisfaction in Rasht.

The metropolis of Tabriz has many resources and capacities to be smart in various dimensions according to internal and external capacities, and this has become one of the main concerns of the citizens and officials of this city today. In this research, the future research of Tabriz metropolis growth developments based on the smart city approach has been studied. In order to analyze the research resources, to identify and determine the level of importance of operational indicators of Tabriz metropolis future development The informant-centered approach is discussed. In this way, first the operational indicators of the research (six indicators of the smart city) and research items (including 25 items) were extracted and in the first stage, using AHP method in Expert Choice software, evaluation and comparison of criteria based on expert evaluation were performed. In the second stage, based on optimal formulation in Excel environment and identifying the levels of influence and effectiveness of the indicators, the fuzzy Demitel method has been used. According to quantitative analyzes, out of 10 items related to the future factors of Tabriz city, 25 weighted items were ranked hierarchically and a total of 10 * 10 matrix diagrams were drawn. Based on the obtained qualitative results, it was determined that the most prominent feature of Tabriz metropolis is attention to the field of natural resources and protection of biosphere resources (water, soil and air). After these dimensions, attention to e-government, ITC infrastructure development, smart transportation, human resources and social development have been the most important, respectively. In the study of impact and impact values (Demtel) it was found that development based on knowledge of urban planning, with the establishment of knowledge-based companies in this field (and other areas related to urban management in the physical and virtual field) is the most important factor in realizing the future smart city Is.

Rural management is always worth studying from different aspects. Performance of rural management is one of these aspects that plays an effective role in the process of developing and strengthening. Investigation and analysis of the role of management in development, physical dimension and reduction of physical vulnerability in rural areas is in line with sustainable development. The physical dimension, as part of the process of sustainable regional development, provides the basis for the stabilization, maintenance and absorption of the population, and consequently, their activities, because the focus of physical-spatial development and related programs, plans and projects based on a systemic considers both the current situation and the future.Aliabad Katoul County is an area where a large part of the population lives in villages, in recent years these areas have witnessed many physical changes. Therefore, it calls for a more scientific and accurate knowledge of rural management and the level of physical development of rural settlements. The purpose of current research is to study the role of rural management in the physical development of rural settlements around the city of Aliabad Katoul in the horizon of 2031. In this regard, for research, the question can be raised that what are the most important key drivers of physical development, resulting from the activities of rural managers in the study area?

This research is an applied and descriptive-analytical study based on the purpose and the nature. Data were collected through documents (library resources, scientific journals) and a survey (questionnaire). The questionnaire was prepared in the form of MICMAC questionnaire and distributed and completed among rural experts in the region in order to capture the impact of rural management on the physical changes of rural settlements in Aliabad katoul County in the horizon of 2031. The statistical population of the study is the villages with grades 5 and 6 rural municipalities around the city of Aliabad katoul. 35 questionnaires were considered for experts in the field of rural areas. Micmac software was used for data analysis and structural analysis of the impact of each of the effective indicators on the formation of physical changes in rural settlements.

Because of the high score of direct and indirect influencing factors, the study categorized five factors in the three main groups of key drivers affecting the future of physical development of rural settlements based on the activities of rural managers in Aliabade Katoul. These factors are land acquisition and using the empty lands within the physical texture to develop and expand the texture of the village (direct impact (4+) indirect impact (1609+)), efforts to establish production units and livestock and garden units (direct impact (4+) indirect impact (1608)), promote the use of local materials in residential units and traditional architectural models (direct impact(3+) indirect impact (1224+)), efforts to improve the condition of public routes in the village (direct impact (3+), indirect impact (+832)), increase and improve educational and cultural facilities and spaces (direct impact (2+) Indirect impact (869+)).

The present paper investigated the future of the impact of rural management on the physical development of rural settlements in the horizon of 2031. The findings showed that the highest performance of local managers was in the field of spatial-physical dimension. Villages are losing their identity culturally and physically due to expansion of urban lifestyles and every day we see changes in rural settlements from their native and traditional essence. Given that, villagers as rural managers can play a significant role in the physical development of villages, and consider the authentic need and the culture of the people in different regions. The physical changes of the rural texture should take economic and social needs into account. This will lead to the expansion of production and livestock workshops and promote the use of local materials in residential units and traditional architectural patterns, and provide access to educational and cultural spaces and can lead to sustainable rural physical development.

Nowadays, there are increasing needs in many dimensions related to urban life, such as: environmental governance, public security, urban planning, energy saving, traffic control, interpersonal communication, social activities, etc. Failure to meet any of the mentioned needs can threaten the sustainable development of a city. In this context, smart city and smart city governance can be a solution. Regarding the city of Rasht, it can be stated that many of the challenges of the spatial extent of the city of Rasht are due to the lack of functional integration of the people in power and decision-making. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to analyze smart urban governance scenarios in Rasht city in order to provide solutions for the future. The present study is applied in terms of descriptive-analytical and exploratory methods. Data collection is by documentary method as well as survey based on Delphi technique. The statistical population of all urban specialists in Rasht is in the field of research. The sample size was determined using Rasco rules 45 people and the sampling method is snowball. 9 key drivers and 28 possible situations were considered for the future of smart governance of Rasht city using the opinion of experts and the output of Micmac software and the interaction matrix questionnaire (weight -3 to 3) was provided to experts. The results of the analysis using the scenario wizard software indicate that the appropriate bedrock scenarios in the field of citizenship education and awareness raising, public and citizen participation and private sector participation, making arrangements to increase funding in the field of intelligence and municipal support From Smart government, the highest value of compatibility is in smart governance in Rasht.

The current vision of Tehran Metropolis depicts a sustainable city with a suitable structure for habitation. The accomplishment of such a landscape that knows sustainable housing as a crucial issue needs scrutiny. This study aimed to identify factors that help the officials reach the goals and to reach the results effective in revising future perspectives of urban planning. The research is applied and the collecting data method is documentary and field study. The study was done in the framework of a descriptive-analytical process. Using Delphi method, among 26 factors, 18 factors were classified as the most important ones in social, economic, physical, and environmental dimensions. Structural analysis using Mick Mac software shows that factors such as land, vertical development, housing quality and strength, water resources, natural crises, and accessibility are among the influential factors. For each of the factors, strategies and policies such as land value-added tax (VAT), construction of underground dams, elevation zoning, and insurance sector’s participation in constructing was offered.

The rapid changes of the second half of the twentieth century and the inefficiency of conventional planning methods led to the emergence and expansion of futurism, which in turn was used in the approach and methods used to identify and solve the problem. Regional foresight operates in a sub-national geographical area to make certain decisions to achieve the desired future, focusing on a specific territorial area. Accordingly, implementing this approach in the framework of the concept of regional development can significantly help update the country's development literature. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting regional development in Ghaen.

The present research is based on an exploratory-applied research method. The research process is such that the present research has collected the required data and information libraries in two ways. Articles, theses, dissertations, books, plans, and reports related to the topic have been collected and studied to review and identify the basics, concepts, and variables related to the topic. Also, using MICMAC method, key factors and drivers affecting the promotion of Ghaen city in regional development have been analyzed.

Based on the Delphi method, 37 variables were identified as factors affecting the regional development of Ghaen city and then analyzed using the interaction or structural effects analysis method by MICMAC software to extract the main factors affecting the future state of the environment. Based on the number of variables, the dimensions of the matrix are 37 x 37. By placing these factors in a matrix, the effect of each of these factors on each other was determined by weighting the factors (from zero to 3). All the factors involved in regional development are considered a system with intertwined elements and as a structure, and the relationships of these factors are measured to extract the most influential factors. The number of repetitions of the interaction of variables is considered twice, and the degree of matrix filling is 97.15% and shows the dispersion of variables affecting the future of Ghaen city. Out of 1330 relations that can be evaluated in this matrix, 39 were zero, 502 were number one, 744 were number two, and 84 were number three. Also, the matrix based on statistical indicators with two times of data rotation has 97% usefulness and optimization, indicating the questionnaire's high validity and answers. In the following, for a general analysis of the system environment and finally identifying the key effective factors. After identifying the variables, the first step is to form a matrix of pairwise comparisons extracted from Delphi meetings of managers (30 people in total) in which the impact of each variable on other variables is measured. Because the method of distribution and distribution of variables affecting the regional development of Ghaen city in the dispersion plane indicates the system's instability, three categories of variables (two-dimensional variables, regulatory variables, and independent variables) can be identified. Bidirectional variables: Bidirectional variables have a high impact and high affectivity, and any action on these variables will cause a reaction and change on other variables. The location of these variables in the impact plan is in the northeast. Bidirectional variables have a very high capacity to become key variables of the system. The following variables are known as two-dimensional variables according to their position in the impact-impact plan: employment structure, production technology, investment security, social participation, method and capacity of agricultural production, skilled manpower, the concentration of activities, Social development relations of the region, production of science, development of universities, GDP, relative economic growth, the pattern of interaction and cooperation with Afghanistan, the geopolitical position of the province, improvement of information technology infrastructure, coordination of organizations, ‌ production, and industrial prosperity, international Yazdan Bazaar, increasing investment in the province and the government's macro policies. Regulatory variables: Regulatory variables are located around the center of gravity of the chart or plan of influence - influence. These variables can be upgraded to effective variables or two-way variables. The following variables are known according to their location in the impact plan - the effectiveness of regulatory variables: improving the health network, social injustice in the distribution of municipal services, polluting industries, water resources, the transnational role of the province, improving the main road network, reducing ownership Government, the extent of devolution to the provincial and local levels, energy resources, the development of social networks, the construction of the provincial rail network and drought and natural hazards. Independent variables: Independent variables are located in the southwestern part of the impact-effectiveness plan. The following variables are called independent variables according to their location in the impact-impact plan: ethnicity, biodiversity, urban green space, entry and exit points of the city, hoarding, and stock exchange.

The results showed that the factors affecting regional development include relative growth, GDP, prosperity, investment, and policies, respectively, and indicate the influence of Ghaen regional development that has directly and indirectly affected. Therefore, by considering these key factors, regional development can be achieved in the city of Ghaen.

The sustainable physical-spatial development of Mashhad urban complex is the prerequisite of attaining sustainable regional (provincial) and national development. This necessitates paying attention to the development of scenarios that set the ground for the development of Mashhad.  In the study at hand, it was tried through the participation of the provincial managers and academic experts to identify first the key drivers of physical-spatial changes in the rural settlements of Mashhad urban complex and then the scenarios effective on the physical-spatial development of these settlements. This study was applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The data was collected through library research, document analysis, and survey (interview) methods. Examining scientific resources, 69 factors effective on the physical-spatial changes were identified, which were grouped into five dimensions. Then, 29 participants in two groups, namely the managers of the related organizations and academic experts, were interviewed. Data analysis was done based on future research techniques, including Schwartz model, structural analysis, and interaction analysis, using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software packages. The results showed that 512 scenarios have weak compatibility, and only one scenario has strong, sustainable compatibility (zero incompatibility) (2.8 percent of possible scenarios are credible). The first scenario, which is in positive direction, has the overall interaction effect score of 771 and compatibility value of 7, while the second scenario that expresses the fairly favorable conditions for the future of rural settlements has the overall interaction effect score of 736 and compatibility value of -2. The third scenario, which has the compatibility value of -3 and the overall interaction effect score of 695, can be one of the possible scenarios for the future physical-spatial changes in rural areas, too.

The continent of Europe was the starting point of two World Wars. But after World War II, the two main former enemies, France and Germany decided to move away from the state of hostility and move toward cooperation. Although joint cooperation in the field of coal and steel began and gradually expanded to other areas, what was important were the areas and elements that encouraged cooperation and convergence and strengthened it over time. Cultural and value commonalities, the cost of war and hostility, the fear of a common threat, Soviet-centered communism, mutual needs for joint cooperation, the importance of the economic component, and etc. were among the factors that encouraged cooperation. The impetus for cooperation and expansion of cooperation and convergence to other Western European countries led to the continuous strengthening of unity and convergence. In fact, the success of cooperation in a sector caused that sector to become a unifying element and strengthen cooperation. Achieving monetary unity and having a single currency was one of those unifying elements. In fact, the economy played an important role in the emerging political community in Europe, and monetary unity was one of the dreams of European politicians before the formation of the European Union, an ideal that was recognized at the beginning of the 21st century in the European Union. The recognition of the euro as a common currency was realized.Achieving a single currency played an important role in strengthening the European Union and the common sense of unity. Although countries such as Britain and Denmark tried from the beginning to avoid accepting the single currency, there was no escaping this fact. With the Brexit, Britain has officially separated from the euro and the common currency. Given the importance of the British economy in Europe on the one hand, and the importance of the Euro alongside the dollar, as one of the most important world currencies on the other hand, it is important to consider how the British withdrawal will affect European monetary unity. Where the future of the Euro will go with the UK withdrawing from the EU monetary union; an important issue that this article seeks to answer. This study, by extracting scenarios from the future of European monetary union, finds it more likely that the British withdrawal will lead to greater cohesion of the European Union and, consequently, to strengthen monetary unity.

The research is qualitative and its approach is descriptive-analytic. Also, due to the nature of this research, the future research method and in particular making scenario is used. By considering independent and dependent variables, related topics are extracted and while coding, we record them in research sheets. In this regard, by referring to written sources and works of recent years, as well as interviews with elites, the method of information analysis is used.

In this section, in the first step, the geopolitical foundations of the European Union are examined. In fact, this section examines the starting point of convergence and the importance of monetary unity. The second step examines the 2008 financial crisis, which sparked pessimism about monetary unity and highlighted the challenges as well as the weaknesses of the union's financial institutions. It also provided space for the formation of opposing currents of convergence. Then, in the third step, the impact of Britain's withdrawal from the EU on monetary unity will be discussed.

The UK's withdrawal from the EU which has always been opposed to monetary union has made it possible for the EU to move towards more cohesion and convergence with the focus on other top economies such as France, Germany and Switzerland. This paper considers this scenario to be the most probable scenario. Britain's special position in the European Union as a non-aligned member has led to more order and cohesion for the EU to leave. This cohesion seems more likely due to Germany's common desire as a European economic power on the one hand and France's desire as a political and military power on the Green Continent on the other hand. According to this scenario, the demographic potential of the euro area, which is 330 million, is itself a factor influencing the convergence and continuity of European monetary unity. Even with The UK's withdrawal from the EU, countries like Germany, Switzerland and France which have strong economies can have better markets in trade.

Therefore, the aim of the present study is to identify and analyze the key factors and main drivers on the acceptance of community-based tourism in rural settlements of Shirvan county. The research method of this research is applied and based on its nature; it is descriptive-analytical. The information has been collected by documentary and field methods. The questionnaire for extracting key drivers affecting the formation of community-based tourism in rural settlements of Shirvan county has been prepared in the form of a micro-Mac questionnaire and has been distributed and completed among community members. 11 questionnaires were considered for rural experts and relevant organs. Micmac software was used to analyze the data and structurally analyze the effectiveness of each of the indicators affecting the formation of community-based tourism in rural areas. The results showed that due to the high score of direct and indirect impact, 16 factors were identified in 4 main groups of key drivers in the future of tourism development of rural settlements of Shirvan county, which factors:)2+) Indirect (961+), overall visitor satisfaction of tourist attractions and ranking according to the purpose of direct (2+) indirect visit (487+), diversity of investors in the tourism sector and increase of non-governmental investments in the direct village (1 +) Indirect (513+), suitable tourism climate, the existence of beautiful, amazing and unique landscapes and rich pastures and a variety of medicinal and edible plants, (1 +) indirect (297+) are the most important factors.

The present research in the field of pragmatism approach - as a mixed methodology paradigm - has addressed the future of rural development research; so, in terms of methodology, it's about mixed methods, by purpose it is a functional type, in terms of nature and method, it is a descriptive-analytical one and in terms of time, it's kind of futuristic. According to the research needs, three different sample volumes were used to collect and analyze data related to Structural Impact Analysis, Defining Possible Situations and Scenario Basket sections, including experts in the field. To identify key factors, the combination of the "Media Browsing" and "STEEP (V)" method and using the Atlas.ti software, 362 article titles from 6 prestigious journals were used in the period 2014-2018; also, content and formal validity methods and techniques were used to calculate the validity and Cronbach's alpha (0.86) was used to measure the reliability of the research questionnaires. Structural analysis using the MicMac method shows that the dispersion patterns of the effective variables indicates system instability. Key factors: "Development of women's participation in social affairs, migration, health development and quality of life" from a social field; "ICT development" from a technological field; "Rural entrepreneurship" from an economic field and "spatial identity" factor from values field influencing the future of rural development planning in Varzaqan County. Finally, on the horizon of the Seventh Development Plan, 15 scenarios that are considered to be static or unbelievable scenarios are expected to be slightly diminished in the planning process in the Seventh Development Plan. Keywords: Planning, Rural Development, Future Research, Scenario Planning, Mixed Methods.