جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "j curve" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

Making changes in the tax system is one of the basic and important needs for increasing government tax revenues. To achieve this, the tax system must move in a direction that increases the tax base. One of the most important solutions can be reducing tax exemptions and deductions. Since tax deduction plays an important role in determining tax revenues, ignoring its effect in tax studies can lead to misleading results. To address this research gap, this study uses a three-part dynamic general equilibrium model to estimate the Laffer Curve and investigate the effects of tax deductions on the curve and taxable income.

The analysis focuses on the household, business, and government sectors, highlighting the significance of tax deductions within each.
Findings from this research show that, in the absence of tax deductions, the optimal tax rate for maximizing tax revenue in terms of labor income is below 45%, while for capital income, it is below 40%. In contrast, when tax deductions are present, tax rates exceeding 50% and 55% maximize tax revenue for labor and capital income, respectively. Furthermore, the elasticity of taxable income for both labor and capital remains relatively constant across scenarios, with a slightly higher value observed when deductions are considered. Regarding capital income, the elasticity consistently exceeds 1 due to the presence of varied capital deductions. In both cases, the elasticity exhibits a downward slope, gradually decreasing as the tax rate increases and approaching a value of 1. In contrast, the ETI associated with labor income remains below 37%, regardless of the presence or absence of deductions.
Furthermore, under tax revenue elasticity, the rate of reaction to the tax rate for the labor force is almost uniform in low tax rates and has a downward trend with the increase of the tax rate in all three cases (considering and not considering deductions). But in the case of reductions in the labor force, the amount of reaction is higher than the other two cases. While the elasticity of tax income from capital gains due to capital depreciation deductions is always greater than 1 and is downward in all three cases and gradually decreases with the increase of the tax rate and approaches 1.

In the current research, to understand the effects of tax exemptions and deductions in the economic system, an attempt has been made to analyze the effects of tax deductions on the government tax revenues and the elasticity of taxable income and tax elasticity, in a simple three-part dynamic general equilibrium model including households, firms and government, three special cases regarding the absence of tax deductions and social security premiums should be investigated. To evaluate and estimate the model, first the calibrated parameters in previous studies were collected and then the results were obtained through MATLAB software.

One of the important results of this research is the changes in the government tax income and the reaction of individuals in the form of taxable income, caused by the consideration and non-consideration of deductions and tax exemptions on the household and corporate sectors.
As it can be seen, tax revenues in the scenario of removing tax deductions are more than the other two scenarios, i.e. considering deductions, on the other hand, the elasticity of taxable income in the presence of tax deductions show a greater reaction than in the case of not considering tax deductions.
Iran has been experiencing consecutive budget deficits over different periods. As a result of reduced oil revenues much greater attention has been drawn to a more efficient and effective taxing system. So, a substitution in the government revenue system can potentially deminish the over-dependence of the Iranian economy on oil revenues, which can lead to far reduced deficits both in the long and short term.
In terms of deductions and exemptions as a factor affecting tax revenues, it can display a more realistic picture of an economy and take into account the existing economic realities. Therefore, the tax system should act in such a way that it moves in the direction of expanding the tax base. One of the solutions for this is realized through elimination of tax exemptions and deductions. It seems that such policies can prevent tax evasion, collecting more tax, and ultimately increase the motivation for work and activity and cause economic growth and prosperity

Estimation of the optimal unemployment rate in accordance with the full employment of the labor force in Iran's economy for the years 69 to 1400:Achieving full employment as a long-term goal has been emphasized in the system's twenty-year vision document, and for this purpose, part of the goals, policies and measures of the country's development programs should be in accordance with the labor market goals in the vision document. to measure In this research, the estimation of the optimal unemployment rate corresponding to the full employment of the labor force in the economy of Iran for the years 1369 to 1400 was discussed. In this way, first the expected inflation rate was estimated and then the natural unemployment rate (NUR) of Iran's economy was estimated at 10.1 and the optimal unemployment rate was estimated at 7.65. Therefore, if Iran's economy is in the best condition and if the favorable conditions for the variables influencing the unemployment rate are imagined, then the unemployment rate will be lower than its natural unemployment rate. In order to reach the optimal unemployment rate, it is necessary to consider measures in the field of labor force employment. For this purpose, increasing economic growth and creating new job opportunities to create employment and employ educated and university personnel and adopting policies to improve foreign trade means using foreign capacities to export domestic goods and services and in contrast to using the capacities of Importing knowledge and technology with the aim of increasing domestic production capacity (along with increasing the scale of production) should be the key focus of the country's economic policy.

The purpose of this article is to analyze the effects of effective tax rate, government revenue and economic efficiency under the landscape of Laffer curve. For this purpose a model has been used with a threshold approach model (STR) based on Iran economic data during the years 1984-2019 (1363-1398). The results of linear and non-linear of this model shows us that tax revenue ratio variablesto GDP, the share of value added in the oil and gas sector and the total consumption has a positive relationship with economic productivity index in Iran. It can also be mentioned that the results of estimating the non-linear of the model part, confirms a negative relationship between effective tax rate with economic productivity index. In other words according to the definition of Laffer Curve by raising tax rate, tax revenue increases until the tax rate reaches level ( t*) and after this level with increasing tax rate, government tax revenue will be decreased

Inflation is one of the challenging and vital issues of economics, which has an undeniable effect on economic stability in the countries all over the world. For this reason, many researchers and policymakers have always sought to identify factors affecting inflation. In the meantime, oil price, as one of the global and strategic variables, can have a significant effect on inflation, especially in countries dependent on oil revenues such as Iran. Accordingly, considering the importance of inflation and the need to identify the causes and factors affecting it on the one hand, and the prominent role of supply side factors on the other hand, this study aims to investigate the effect of oil price fluctuations on the inflation rate considering the threshold effect of economic growth, and to identify the other supply-side factors affecting inflation rate, including technology and labor market dynamics during 1375-1401, applying the threshold regression of time series. According to the results, the oil price has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate when the economic growth is lower than 4.303%. This effect is also positive and significant in the economic growth of above the mentioned threshold, but its amount is less. In addition, unemployment and technology have negative and significant effects on inflation rate, which respectively confirm Phillips theory and Solow growth theory. However, population size has a positive and significant effect on inflation rate.

The critical question is, if the Phillips Curve really exists, how have economies with simultaneously low and stable unemployment and inflation rates become ever-increasingly a global experience? This research claims that financial development can prevent the formation of any inflation-unemployment trade-off. The financial development multilateral index is calculated by combining banking sector and stock market indicators using Principal Components Analysis and Credit Weights. Findings from the estimation of “Rolling Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags” (RARDL) for countries with different levels of financial development and financial structures from 1979Q1 to 2016Q4 are in support of policymaking for “balanced development of financial infrastructures in the framework of a well-balanced financial structure” for economies that want to target low inflation and unemployment simultaneously. Finally, the findings of this research show that the trade-off between inflation and unemployment is, in its nature, a policy relationship, not a behavioral one. While there is an “apparently” stable trade-off between inflation and unemployment by using the demand-side policies (and the resulting demand-pulled inflation), by using supply-side policies (and the resulting cost-pushed inflation) there will be no trade-off, so from a political point of view, exit from stagflation become possible.

One of the most important economic problems in Iran during the last few decades is the phenomenon of high and double-digit inflation. So, improving the conditions caused by high inflation has always been one of the important goals of the country's development programs. Achieving this goal requires the creation of a precise and targeted mechanism in the economic policy-making process. In its standard form, it includes forecasting, goal setting and policy analysis. The general purpose of this study is to predict the inflation rate using economic variables that affect it. In this research, the Bayesian averaging method is used to investigate the best estimation model that can predict the inflation in Iran. In this regard, the previous studies conducted in this field are first reviewed, and then the most important economic variables affecting the inflation are identified and used to predict the inflation rate.

Friedman believes that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Monetarists believe that inflation comes from the disproportionate growth of nominal money supply. So, the higher this growth, the higher the inflation rate is. There is a direct and proportional relationship between money growth and inflation. According to this theory, changes in money supply have no effect on real variables such as production, employment and real wages; they only affect nominal variables such as prices and nominal wages proportionally. Monetarists consider the real growth of the economy in the long term to be independent of the change in the money supply and generally believe that this growth is determined by factors such as production capacity, increase in labor force due to population growth, advancement of technical knowledge and natural resources.In order to control or curb inflation, the influencing factors must be identified. The results of the studies on the factors that cause inflation are different or even inconsistent, because it is based on the researcher's specific attitude. In this article, to avoid falling into such a vortex, the Bayesian averaging method is used to predict inflation. The seasonal data of 1990-2022 have been used to predict the inflation rate in Iran.

Forecasting inflation is one of the most important but difficult issues in macroeconomics. Many different approaches have been proposed in this field. Perhaps the most popular of these approaches are those based on the Phillips curve. However, the general framework includes a dependent variable such as inflation (or change in inflation) and explanatory variables such as inflation breaks, unemployment rate and other predictive factors. Meanwhile, return and regression-based methods have been somewhat more successful.The results show that dynamic model averaging leads to significant improvements in forecasting compared to other approaches such as OLS, ARMA, and ARDL. Also, among the variables influencing inflation, the most influential for predicting the inflation rate relates to household consumption expenditure, unemployment rate, and workers' wage rate.

Conclusions and policy implications: 

The general purpose of this study was to predict the inflation rate using the economic variables that affect it. In this research, the Bayesian averaging method served to investigate the best estimation model that can predict the inflation in Iran. In this regard, the previous studies conducted in this field were first examined and then the most important economic variables affecting the inflation were identified and used to predict the inflation rate. For this purpose, the seasonal data of the variables during the period of 1990-2022 were used. In this research, the methods of ordinary least squares (OLS), auto regression moving average (ARMA), auto regression with distributed lag (ARDL), Bayesian dynamic averaging (DMA) and Lasso regression were used to predict the inflation and evaluate the prediction accuracy.Therefore, based on the results obtained in this research, attention should be paid to the behavioral economic parameters of households when choosing the optimal policy. Factors such as the increase in household food prices, the high increase in workers' wages, the increase in money supply, the increase in interest rates and the increase in residential rental rates have definitely caused the formation of inflationary expectations in the society and can cause instability in the future and make the inflation deviate from equilibrium. Thus the measures to take include controlling the household food market, controlling the housing market, reforming the wage pattern in the country, controlling the interest rates in banks, and using contractionary monetary policies. These help to control and reduce inflationary expectations among the people.

Inequality of income and consumption of renewable and non-renewable energies is one of the important issues of many countries and has many economic, social and environmental dimensions. Also, income inequality is one of the most important obstacles to the development of different societies. In this research, using data from 1389 to 1398 and the method of generalized moments (GMM), in addition to income inequality, the effect of economic growth and urbanization on electricity consumption in the provinces of Iran has been investigated. The results show that a 1% increase in the Gini coefficient reduces electricity consumption by more than 5%. Also, a 1% increase in GDP increases electricity consumption by more than 1.5%. This is despite the fact that the square of gross domestic product has a negative and significant effect on electricity consumption, and an increase of one percent causes a decrease in electricity consumption by more than 0.03 percent.   Therefore, the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between gross domestic product and electricity consumption in Iran's provinces is confirmed. Finally, the results show a positive and significant effect of urbanization on electricity consumption, so that with a 1% increase, electricity consumption increases by more than 0.2%.

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the effects of information and communication technology on the quality of the environment (publication pollutant gases, carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases) and ecological footprint (from three aspects of the effect individual, country reserves trend and land type) in member countries of the Economic Co-operation and development  Organization is using the panel data method in the time period of 1992-2018.The results showed Expanding the use of ICT  in the mentioned countries has a positive effect on improving the quality of the environment And It has reduced the emission of carbon dioxide, greenhouse gases and ecological footprint.Furthermore, the consequences of ICT on the quality of the environment in the long term have been more than in the short term. Therefore, the findings showed that the substitution effect of ICT (substitution of online activities) compared to Income effect (increased leisure time from the substitution effect and increased travel demand) in the case study has been dominant.

Afghanistan's trade balance has been in deficit for many years, especially in the last two decades, and the deficit has always been covered by foreign aid and the Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves. The assessment, which is considered one of the most important changes in the creation of international relations, will lead to the improvement of the trade balance in order to create a framework and use appropriate currency policies. This experimental research aims to investigate the J-shaped curve phenomenon in Afghanistan's trade balance with its largest trading partners, which uses the Panel-ARDL econometric method to estimate price and income factors. The data used in this research is composite and it has studied the period from 2008 to 2018 along with twenty-one major business partners. The model outputs include the real exchange rate, Afghanistan's GDP, and each partner's GDP. In order to analyze and estimate the long-term and short-term relationships of Afghanistan's trade balance, the co-accumulation and ARDL tests were used. The research investigations, with the disconfirmation of the J-curve effect in the short term, have indicated the positive and meaningless effect of the exchange rate, and in the long term, the price factors (exchange rate) have a greater effect on the trade balance than the non-price factors (GDP). Also, on the other hand, the internal business relations of short-term partners have significance in the long-term. After estimating the model, it is concluded that devaluation policies in improving trade depend on the mutual behavior of trading partners and their currency stability.

The trade-off between inflation and the output gap is different under each of the specifications of the Phillips curve, and therefore the optimal monetary policy will be different based on the assumption of each of these specifications. Considering the importance of the issue, and in order to identify the Phillips curve compatible with the stylized facts in the Iranian economy, by implementing the framework of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model and Bayesian analysis, a wide range of pricing models including sticky information, Dual-stickiness, generalized Calvo, multi-sector and hybrid models have been compared and evaluated. To compare different pricing models in this study, four criteria have been applied: comparing the posterior probability of the models, comparing the moments of the simulated data of the model with real data, comparing the autocorrelation of the real inflation rate with the median of the posterior distribution of each of the models, and examining the impulse response functions. According to the results, the Phillips curve under Dual Stickiness is more consistent and compatible with the stylized facts in Iran's economy, compared with other Phillips specifications. In specifying the Phillips curve under Dual Stickiness, in addition to the expected inflation component, the lag of inflation also appears endogenous (due to the simultaneous assumption of two types of price and information stickiness).

Government activities in an economic system play an important role in the country's economic growth and development, but increasing the volume of these activities to certain thresholds has a positive effect on economic growth, and from that threshold, increasing in the volume of government activities not only has no positive effect on economic growth, But these activities are the main obstacles to growth. The explanation for the non-linear effects of government expenditures on economic growth is known as the Army Curve. In this study, the relationship between government expenditures and economic growth has been investigated by using Army curve in Iran and South Korea (1990-2015) and with using autoregressive distributed lag model. The results show a positive nonlinear relationship between government expenditures and economic growth in both Iran and South Korea. With the negative sign of the power factor of the second government expenditure, the existence of a logistic curve in the long run is evident for both oil exporter and importer country: Iran and South Korean

In most countries, taxes are the most important source of government revenue. But in Iran, taxes have long provided a small share of government revenues. Perhaps the most important reason is the existence of oil revenue sources that have put the tax on the sideline. For this reason, the emphasis has been on reforming the tax structure. In this regard, the Law on Value Added Tax was implemented in Iran in the second half of 2008 to reform the tax structure. VAT is a new tax that was created to reduce the shortcomings of the traditional tax system and also to increase government revenue. VAT is a type of sales tax that is levied at various stages of production and distribution of goods and services. The average VAT rate in different countries is between 5% and 18%. In Iran, since the enactment of the VAT law, there has been a lot of controversy and debate among experts regarding the determination of tax rates. This rate was set at 3 percent at the time of implementation of the VAT law and was set to increase by one percent each year, so that in 2018 it reached 9 percent. As the tax rate increases, so does government revenue from tax collection. However, this increase in income is limited, and if tax rates exceed a certain point, tax revenues will decline, because due to high tax rates, people will lose motivation to work. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the tax rate that maximizes tax revenues. It is also necessary to determine the optimal rate of this type of tax so that the government's tax revenue is maximized but it does not hinder economic growth. The present study was conducted for this purpose.

This research was conducted in the period of 2008-2018 using data from 24 provinces whose information was available. The research data related to VAT rate and government tax revenue in the period of 2008-2018 was collected from the provincial yearbooks. The year 2008 is the beginning of the implementation of the VAT law and 2018 is the last year that information and statistics were available. Finally, the optimal VAT rate in Iranian economy was estimated using data panel method. In this method, first, using Lemmer test, panel data in model estimation was selected. Then, using Hausman test, the estimation with random effects was confirmed. All analysis and model estimations were performed using EViews 9 software.

Findings from the statistical description of the data show that VAT rate in Iran in 2008 was set at 3% and remained at the same rate until the end of 2010. From 2010 onward, VAT rate increased so that in 1394 it reached 9%. From 1394 to 1396, it remained constant. Also, the results of model estimation show that VAT in Iran has lufferel effects; i. e, increasing VAT rate directly increases the government's tax revenue and indirectly reduces the government's tax revenue by reducing production incentive. Therefore, VAT rate has an optimal value at which the rate of government tax revenue is maximized.

The optimal VAT rate calculated in this study is 10.33%. Considering that VAT rate has been set at 9% in 1398, increasing this rate to 10.33% in the coming years is recommended. This will increase the government tax revenue. An increase in the tax rate above this amount will reduce the government tax revenue. Therefore, exceeding VAT rate over 10.33% is not suggested.

Institution of the family, its functions and welfare in Islam have a special place. The share of food costs in the total household expenditure is one of the indicators of welfare and increasing the household dimension as one of its functions is affects this index. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the share of urban and rural households' food cost with emphasis Islam's approach to the household dimension using the least weighted least squares method  and income and expenditure data of 9578 households in Isfahan province during the period (2006-2014). The results show that with the increase of the total household cost and the change of housing of households from rural to urban, the share of food costs decreases. Also, with the increase of the household dimension and the increase of the age of the head of the household, the share of food costs in the total cost of households has increased and has led to a decrease in household welfare. Accordingly, the government should apply different support policies to increase the level of welfare of households according to the size of the household, the age of the heads of households and their place of residence.