جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "تغییرات اقلیمی" در نشریات گروه "زیست شناسی"

In this research, to anticipate the effects of climate change on the precipitation of selected stations in East Azerbaijan province, including Ahar, Maragheh, Mianeh, Jolfa, Sarab, and Tabriz stations, which had 29-year common statistical data from 1985 to 2014, with The use of LARS-WG6 model were studied. In this research, the effectiveness of the LARW-WG model for generating and simulating daily data of temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours in the study area was investigated using the statistical parameters R2, MAE, and RMSE. The results showed that at the confidence level of 99%. There is no significant percentage difference between the real data and the data obtained from the model, and the model has the necessary efficiency to generate daily data, therefore, after ensuring the model's ability, using HadGEM2 atmospheric general circulation model under RCP 2.6 scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in the next two periods from 2021 to 2040 were forecasted for the rainfall changes in the studied area. The results of forecasting the average annual rainfall changes of the studied stations of East Azerbaijan province in the statistical period of 2021-2040 showed that According to RCP 2.6, precipitation will increase in all the studied stations in the next 20 years, but according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, we will see an increase in precipitation only in Jolfa station, and in the rest of the studied stations, precipitation will increase by will be significantly reduced.Climate change is one of the most important and complex concerns of the current and future centuries. The dangerous effects of climate change on human life will cover almost all aspects of life. Drought, rising sea levels, violent storms, reduction of freshwater resources, warming of the air, forest fires, and desertification are among these effects (Mohammadi et al., 1400). Climate change is one of the most important ecological problems of the 21st century. According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, these global changes are most likely caused by human factors. Various studies show that this phenomenon can have negative effects on various systems of water resources, agriculture, the environment, industry, and the economy. Forecasting the quantity and quality of climatic changes is one of the complex issues that have occupied the minds of climatologists. Now, with the help of obtaining new technologies and possessing multiple series of necessary data of climatic variables and with the help of knowledge to understand the relationships between these variables, basic steps have emerged in understanding and predicting climatic trends, in such a way that now Computer models all respond to climate forecasting issues and factors affecting climate change within their capabilities (Darvand et al., 1400). Currently, the most reliable and developed tool for investigating climate change and its impacts is the 3D Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model (AOGCM). The AOGCM model is based on physical laws. These relationships are resolved in a three-dimensional network around the world. The presented models show climate parameters in the future (until 2099) for different emission periods. By using these methods with different climatic variables, the effects of climate change on the variability and adaptation of plants can be investigated.The research method in this study relies on the LARS WG model. After sorting, processing data, and preparing input files, finally, the model studied in this research was finally implemented for the basic course. In the next step, using the mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of determination (R2), and the root mean square error (RMSE) to evaluate the data generated from this model and the real data available in the basic period became After checking the results of the confidence stage and evaluating the capability of the LARS-WG model for simulating meteorological data by considering the low values of the error measurement indices and the high values of the calculated coefficient of determination, the new version of LARS WG6 was used in this research. The required data including minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours are collected from the synoptic station of East Azarbaijan province and given as input to the model. The data simulated by the CMIP5 atmospheric general circulation model is related to the period 2021-2040, which under the scenarios of RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 by the LARS-WG model compared to the base period 2014-1985 in the scale of the studied stations. In order to reduce the uncertainty of the average of the calculated profiles for the above model, it has been obtained. In the current research, it has given appropriate and favorable results regarding the study of the effects of climate change scenarios on the precipitation of East Azarbaijan province in the direction of microscale. CMIP5 models are used in LARS-WG6 software, which is one of the most famous and important models for generating random weather data. This model is used to generate the values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and sunshine hour in a station, regarding the basic climate conditions as well as the future. For this reason, the study has been done on various stations of the studied area. The daily temperature and precipitation data of 6 stations of East Azarbaijan Province, including Jolfa, Ahar, Sarab, Tabriz, Mianeh, and Maragheh stations, were used for exponential micro-scale as well as temperature and precipitation forecasting during recent years. Then, in the present research, to implement the model, first, taking the 29-year period from 1364 to 1393 (1985-2014) as the base period, the necessary data, including precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, and sunshine hours, were obtained from the National Meteorological Organization.The results of forecasting changes in the average annual precipitation of the studied stations of East Azerbaijan Province in the statistical period of 2021-2040 showed that according to RCP 2.6, the precipitation will increase in all the studied stations during the next 20 years, but according to RCP 4.5 and In RCP8.5, we will see an increase in rainfall only in Jolfa station, and in the rest of the studied stations, rainfall will decrease significantly.

Climate change, as one of the most important threats ahead, has significant effects on biodiversity and natural ecosystems. In the present study, using species distribution modeling (SDM) the effects of climate change on the spread and distribution of the Shabout fish species (Arabibarbus grypus, Heckel, 1843) was investigated. in terms of SDM, an ensemble model by the Biomod2 package with six different algorithms for the present time and also under two-time series of 2070 and 2090 with two models Optimistic (SSP 126) and pessimistic (SSP 585) were used for a future time. In addition, eight climatic, topographic, and human variables were used to build the model. The results showed that the prediction performance of the model based on three parameters AUC, TSS, and KAPPA ranged from very good to excellent ≤0.77. The most important parameters affecting the distribution of shirbat species were the parameters of the minimum temperature of the coldest month of the year (Bio 6), total annual rainfall (Bio 12), and human footprints. Also, the range of distribution of the studied species in both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the years 2070 and 2090 will face a significant decrease. The effects of climate change on the shabout species have clearly shown that the species have different responses to climate change, and these responses provide appropriate and specific management strategies for each species.

Snakebite is a global health problem and important conservation challenge. Knowing where snakebite risk is highest can help snakebite management. But climate change is altering snakebite risk pattern making its management more difficult and complicated.
In this study we used Echis carinatus’ habitat suitability as an indicator of snakebite risk, under current and future climatic conditions. We applied an ensemble of five distribution modelling methods (Generalized linear models (GLMs), Generalized additive models (GAMs), Generalized boosted models (GBMs), Maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) and Random Forest (RF)) to model the species habitat suitability. In addition, we identified villages that are at risk of envenoming form the species under current and future climate.
Results showed that the species suitable habitat will increase under climate change as consequence number of villages at risk will increase from 70247 to 82881 putting more human population at risk of envenoming.
High snakebite risk areas identified in this study are high priority target areas for awareness raising program and antivenom distribution. This study demonstrates usefulness of habitat suitability modeling in identifying high snakebite risk area in Iran.

An examination of the trend of climate data recorded in the past decades, as well as the output results of all climate models predicting the future climate, indicate the occurrence of negligible changes in the global climate. Therefore, long-term forecasting of climate variables has received much attention. In order to predict the climatic parameters in Evan Lake, downscaling of general circulation models (GCMs) was used by using the LARS-WG model. The General Circulation Model (GCM) is the most current method by using in climate change studies. They are a key to understanding changes in climate; Although GCMs are imperfect and uncertain. The LARS-WG model was implemented to predict climatic parameters and the necessary analyzes were performed on its results. After selecting the general circulation model and the scenario more in line with the climatic conditions of the region, the outputs of the selected model were compared with the base period to determine the trend of their changes. The results show a decrease in average rainfall (39.9 mm), an increase in minimum and maximum temperatures (0.4 ° C) and an increase in the number of wet days (7 days) and the number of frost days (5 days). Also, the number of dry days (7 days) and the number of hot days (5 days) will decrease in the climate period 2030-2020.

According to the United Nations definition in 1986, food security is defined as the access of all people to adequate food at all times to maintain a healthy body(FAO Stat 2014). According to this definition, food availability, access to food and sustainability in food intake are the three main pillars(Argent 2019). Food safety and food safety are now addressed in development documents and used by officials. Food security is the access of all members of a society to adequate and healthy food for a healthy and active life at all stages of life, and household income is an important factor in ensuring food security in a social system(HLPE 2013; Development 1995). In recent years, unsustainable agricultural system has led to instability in production and.

Today, climate issues threaten the security of the world. Security that is necessary and vital in all fields and for all human beings. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to identify the important and effective factors of climate change in Iran's national security in order to identify and categorize these factors to provide the basis for future measures. The present research is applied in terms of method, descriptive-analytical and exploratory (due to the nature of identifying factors) and in terms of the purpose of doing it. The research data was collected by 10 experts using the snowball method and structural-interpretive modeling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis methods were used to analyze them. According to the research findings, among the first 18 factors of climate change affecting international security were identified, 13 of them are considered more related to national security by experts, and among them, 4 factors are temperature increase, decrease in rainfall, drought and drought. The emergence of water resources with high penetration power and low dependence were identified as key factors affecting Iran's security. These factors act as the structural cornerstone of the system and in order to fundamentally change the performance of the system, they must be emphasized in the first place. In emphasizing these factors, one should not neglect other factors. Because climatic factors are interconnected in a chain and a lack of attention to this issue can lead to other climatic damage and threaten internal and external security.

Climate change components such as sea-level rise, high water events, changes in precipitation regime, temperature fluctuation and altered ocean circulation patterns, affect the health andfunctionally of mangrove ecosystems. Among these disturbances, the sea-level rise has been found to be the most significant threat to mangrove ecosystems. To date, the sea level rise represents the smaller threat than anthropogenic activities such as conversion for aquaculture and deforestation. The estimated annual economic value of mangrove forests is in the range of $200–$900 per hectare. The disappearance of mangroves could have devastating effects on ecosystems and impair the services that they provide. Consequently, the water quality decreases, breeding and nursery ground of fishes are destroyed and species diversity decline under land use changes. Mangrove destruction can also release large quantities of stored carbon in sediments and exacerbate global warming and other climate change trends.

Today we are witnessing an increase in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, erosion, and pollution of more than a third of the soil, and a rapid increase in the human population. These cases promise many challenges from severe environmental pollution, climate change, increasing diseases, food shortages, and so on. The most effective way forward to overcome these problems is to use bioeconomics. It should be noted that the growth of the bioeconomy requires the promotion of life sciences and related technologies.It is possible to improve the economic and environmental level and development of Iran from an early age and in schools with proper and timely education in bioeconomics and biotechnology.In this review article, 51 articles and documents on how to properly teach biology and how to train efficient and effective biologists were reviewed. The findings suggest the continuous learning of biology teachers and the development of their competencies, as well as their appropriate training about the digitization of education and evaluation, as well as the use of methods such as reverse classroom and virtual reality technology in classrooms, should be used.On the other hand, discourse building to change society's attitude towards the bioeconomy should be considered as the most important priority of macro-policymakers. And because of the importance of bioeconomics education for the future of the country and national security, the teaching of this science should start from the earliest years of education, and capable and talented students should be identified and screened, and properly trained.

Conservation of biodiversity under changing environment is a real challenge for conservation biologists. Previous studies have shown that climate change will have negative impacts on bat species. However very little is known about the potential impacts of climate change on bats of Iran. Pipistrellus pipistrellus is a small insectivore bat which live in vast area in Iran. Despite being widespread, the species ecology remains unknown. In the present study we predicted the impacts of climate change on the species distribution, identified future climate refugia for the species and assessed protected areas effectiveness in covering the species suitable habitats. We applied an ensemble approach using four distribution modeling methods (Generalized Linear Models, Generalized Additive Models, Maximum Entropy Modelling and Random Forest). then projected the ensemble model in to the future. We found that the species will lose 118551 km2 of its suitable habitats while gaining 59303 km2 new climatically suitable habitats. Results showed that 7.1 percent of the species suitable habitats covered by protected areas under current climatic condition but in the future suitable habitats will decrease to 6.7 and 6.2 percent under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively. Climatically stable habitats identified in this study can play important role in species survival under climate change thus they have high priority for conservation.

The cultivation of landraces that are resistant to environmental stresses, pests and plant diseases and have a less need for fertilizers and toxins is important for Increasing access to healthy and nutritious food and tackling climate change that has endangered food production in the contemporary world. In this regard, the native knowledge of people who are traditionally engaged in agriculture is important because it guides the researchers to make appropriate decisions against climate change. This manuscript based on the findings of research to explore the indigenous knowledge of cultivation of landraces among rural women of East Azerbaijan. The research method is qualitative and data collection was done by semi-structured interviews with farmer women. Data analysis by thematic analysis shows that important factors it takes the form of social and economic structures. The results indicate that the combination of the three issues of gender, climate change and agricultural production can lead the agricultural sector to more successful policies to encourage farmers to cultivate landraces and preserve native seeds.

Climate change is one of the most important issues that has attracted a great deal of attention and caused many environmental problems for health systems and global economy. Studies have shown that during climate change, microorganisms can change and cause many problems including the recurrence and spread of infectious diseases, emerging diseases (COVID-19 pandemic), and antibiotic resistance. Besides, it will lead to famine, drought, floods, and global warming that threatens the lives of many people. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions, especially the use of less fossil fuels in industry, can be a preventative way. Therefore, it is significant to have plans to deal with climate change consequences in the environment. In this article, 71 articles from 1992 to 2020 were reviewed by mentioned keywords. Some specific extreme environments that are rich in valuable secondary metabolites and microorganisms but are fragile to climate change and also their microorganism’s diversity and population which have been changed during climate change were reviewed.

Cannibalism is a behavioural characteristic that is defined in a wide range of animals and is widely seen in aquatic ecosystems and in more than 90% of the life cycle of animals, especially amphibians. Climate change is one of the most important threats to diversification. The studies show that the temperature changes the interaction of species and affects the cannibalism rate. In this study, to investigate the effect of emerging climate change on cannibalism, the independent and interactive effects of three factors including (high and low temperature), density (high and low density), and fluctuations in water levels (high, low and decreasing water levels) on head, tail and whole body cannibalism were investigated in the larval of Green toad (Bufotes variabilis) for the period of 10 months. In this study, generally, the highest rate of cannibalism was observed in low density (59.44%), high temperature (53.33%) and low water level (45%). In the interactive study, the highest percentage of cannibalism observed in the treatment of high temperature/low water level/low density with 90%. In contrast, the lowest percentages of cannibalism were recorded in low temperature/low water levels/low density with 20%. The results of ANOVA analysis indicated that temperature and density have a significant effect on the level of cannibalism. In contrast, this effect was not significant for fluctuations in the water level. The interaction of all three factors of temperature, density and water level also had a significant effect on cannibalism.

1. Qom as one of the provinces with the lowest amount of rainfall in Iran, is facing adverse effects of growing population, developing industrial and agriculture activities along with rainfall reduction, temperature and wind increase and unbridle exploitation of water resources over recent past years. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the climatic variable factors trend to be considered in managing, planning and proper development of the province. The climate change is the main challenge in area. Hence, determining the climate change trend and identifying the results and impacts of climate change is a crucial action and first step in planning. Identification the climate change trend is the main aims of this manuscript.
2. Methodology The area of study: The study carried out in Qom province, which located at 50° 3' to 51° 55' N, 34° 3' to 35° 13' E in center of Iran. Qom province is about 120 km from Tehran (Figure 1). The area has a semi and arid climate with hot summer and cold winters. The study is limit to the city of Qom. City of Qom located in height of 878 meters from sea level. The main synoptic station in area is the Shokuhieh station. Therefore, the data provided by this station is considered as base for analysis of climate change trends.
The identification of trends in Climatic factor could be determines by different method and techniques. Whenever the climatic factors do not follow a normal distribution, then the raking tests will be an appropriate test. Man-Kendal test is one of raking test that able to evaluate the climatic factors.
The precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind are four main factors, which are examined in this manuscript. We used the synoptic data from 1989 up to 2014 to analysis the changes trend based on suggested method.
3. To Mann-Kendall test has been used to process a few climatic variables from 1989-2014 in the area. This suggests average minimum and average annual temperature have experienced dramatic change and have positive significant variability at 99% reliability (figure 2,3,4 and 5), but average annual rainfall shows no significant trend as figure 6 shows. Average annual relative humidity fluctuates wildly and in 2010, after a sudden change, follows a noticeably upward trend at 95% reliability (Figure 7 and 8). Average wind speed has had a rising trend since 2001, but no sudden change occurred until 2013 as illustrated in Figure 9. Almost all noticeable upward trends and sudden climatic changes happened over late four years of research. Intensive rainfalls, water/wind erosion, desertification, and increase in the intensified droughts and decline in water resources as well groundwater level and quality are among adverse effects of climate change.
4- The result indicates that the area experiences some kind of changes. However, the main point is the intensive the changes in recent years. Almost all noticeable upward trends and sudden climatic changes happened over late four years of research. Intensive rainfalls, water/wind erosion, desertification, and increase in the intensified droughts and decline in water resources as well groundwater level and quality are among adverse effects of climate change.
5- Climate changes has begun in area. The main changes are related to the recent years. The analysis of trend of main climatic factor indicates that changes mainly reflect by temperature and wind. Although the change in rainfall is limit but weak signal of change in rainfall observed. It seems that changes in rainfall will be intensified in nest following years. The general trend indicates that climate of area will be tougher and its impact will be intensified the process of desertification. As result, the problems, which associated the desertification, will be exacerbated.

Identifying potential impacts of anticipated changes in climate on food safety and their control at all stages of the food chain is a very important issue. The purpose is to raise awareness of the issue and to facilitate international cooperation in better understanding the changing food safety situation and in developing and implementing strategies to address them. Agents of food-borne disease include: zoonotic diseases, mycotoxin contamination, biotoxins in fishery products and environmental contaminants are important. The paper also highlights the need for adequate attention to food safety in ensuring preparedness for effective management of emergency situations arising from extreme weather events. There is much uncertainty about possible food safety implications of climate change. This paper discusses some expected effects that are supported by data; it also considers other issues that are largely speculative.