فهرست مطالب احمد صلاح منش

The cement industry is considered one of the most important, fast-moving and influential industries in the industrial development and growth of any country. In the current research, the aim of more precisely knowing the cement market of Iran in order to achieve the goals of principle 44 of the constitution of Iran using analytical and quantitative methods, the economic situation of cement in various fields including its market structure in Iran and the world in the period of 2012-2018 has been investigated. The results obtained in Iran have shown that the cement production capacity has a growing trend and an excess of supply compared to demand. The countries of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Kuwait have been the most important target markets for Iran's cement exports so far. Determining the price of cement through the commodity exchange has removed the existing challenges. The cement industry is one of the energy-intensive industries, which has the largest consumption of fuel oil (furnace oil) among the different energies compared to all industries. the production companies in order to manage costs are mainly located in the border points and close to the production raw materials and they export their products to the nearest target market. The results of Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index calculations, by information of 36 active companies and members of the stock exchange in Iran, showed that this industry has a monopolistic competition structure regardless of the ownership effect, and a multilateral monopoly structure in terms of the ownership effect. The structure of the export and import side of this industry in global markets also has a structure of monopolistic competition.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are limited economic entities that provide the basis for economic development through the accumulation of micro-financial resources, entrepreneurship and connection with industries. These companies also play a vital role in economic growth, employment, wealth generation and poverty reduction of countries.The most important development strategies is with emphasis on SME and the geographical focus of production units and these businesses organization. The purpose of this article is surveying the effects of SME credits on employment(a dynamic computable general equilibrium model). Data collection has done in library and field and using the data of Iranian Statistics Center. Information analysis has done in the form of a New Keynesian model of dynamically computable general equilibrium using GAMZ software. To complete the research, this discussion has been considered for large enterprises comparatively and as an aspect Research innovation. By the results of employment creation analysis in small, medium and large enterprises, employment creation rate during the period 1384-1391,according to the credit ceiling of 20,30,40, and 50 percent which is done by the government is ascendant.Therefore, it can be said that the amount of allocated credits has a direct effect on theproductions of small, medium and large enterprises and, consequently, on employment creation. Due to the centralization of the management system integrated and the kind of government supports that provides to these types of enterprises, the rate of employment creation in large enterprises was more than small and medium enterprise

Monetary policy rules that are used to implement monetary policies by central banks are determined in a strategic framework in order to do trade-offs between goals such as inflation, unemployment and economic growth. Economic authorities use laws as a guide to implement their policies regarding the deviation of target variables from their desired goals or levels.The new Keynesian DSGE models in vogue in central banking have long ignored the insights of the economy information revolution to which Joseph Stiglitz made an important contribution. Furthermore, these models have not been successful in providing important research insights about alternative theories on model selection and the consequences of structural failures in the econometric literature, in which David Hendry plays a key role. By addressing the debates between the critics and advocates of New Keynesian DSGE models, Henry and Muelbauer show how evidence-based research can improve quantitative policy models and enable central banks to better understand financial stability and models.The fundamental difference between the neoclassical and Keynesian theories lies in the understanding of the labor market. In the neoclassical case, the nominal wage is understood as an adaptive variable. In the absence of labor market imperfections such as search and matching frictions or non-equilibrium wages due to the existence of asymmetric information, nominal wage adjustment settles the labor market for a given price level. In such a situation, Keynesian unemployment caused by the lack of aggregate demand cannot exist. The economy is supply-side determined because the factor of market settlement along with the aggregate production function requires a unique level of output and employment.Macroeconomic modeling has come under severe criticism since the Great Financial Crisis, when serious flaws in the methodology used to understand the economy as a whole became apparent. Criticisms have been directed toward the assumptions used in dominant models, especially in that economic factors are homogeneous and optimal and that the economy is in equilibrium. Some researchers seek to explore an interdisciplinary approach to macroeconomic modeling, with techniques drawn from other sciences (natural and social). In particular, they discuss agent-based modeling as an example of such a technique, which is used in a wide variety of disciplines. Agent-based models complement the existing approaches and are suitable for answering macroeconomic questions in which complexity, heterogeneity of economic agents and their expectations, networks, and discoveries play an important role. Based on the literature, this study uses a disequilibrium approach to investigate the effect of monetary policies on macroeconomic variables.

The purpose of this paper was to analyze the monetary policies under disequilibrium in Iran's economy. In order to analyze the results, the random dynamic disequilibrium method was used in the period of 1989-2022 based on the frequency of seasonal data. The approach used in this study is modeling in terms of the disequilibrium in economic markets and its spread to other markets as well as the reaction of macroeconomic variables to the shock. Disequilibrium in dynamic stochastic models occurs due to financial and real frictions in markets. The tools used in this study were the Hamilton-Jacobi-Belman method as well as Kolomogrof's forward-looking expectations in order to solve the model in disequilibrium conditions.

The results obtained from this study indicated that the currency deviation variable has increased in response to the monetary policy shock. Also, with the change in the same variable, this disequilibrium and deviation in the exchange rate has increased over time. It was observed that the shock of the monetary policy has led to the deviation in the exchange rate by creating disequilibrium in the prices. The response of consumer spending to monetary policy shocks has also been increasing over time. The results indicate that, with the introduction of the monetary policy shock, the situation and imbalance in the money and currency market has led to price pressure and an increase in household consumption expenditures, and this trend has been upward over time. The production deviation variable has also increased in response to the monetary policy shock.

Conclusion and Policy Implications:

 Guiding monetary policies and designing a structure that increases the credibility and acceptability of both applied policies and monetary policymakers, on the one hand, and the realization of the main priority of monetary policies, i.e. achieving a low and stable inflation rate and making it possible to maintain it, on the other hand, in recent years have been the focus of attention of many economists. The results indicate that, with the introduction of the monetary policy shock, the disequilibrium in the money and currency market has led to price pressure and an increase in household consumption expenditures. This trend has been upward over time. The production deviation variable has also increased in response to the monetary policy shock. According to the results obtained from this study, it is suggested that the instability and disequilibrium in Iran's economy are due to the exchange rate and balance of payments, and this imbalance is transferred to all markets through economic policies. This is the basis for the country's monetary authorities to implement their policies, especially in the field of foreign exchange, by setting a fluctuation range and anchoring the nominal exchange rate to changes in foreign exchange reserves as well as the inflation rate to prevent the spread of disequilibrium in the currency and money market as the real sector of the economy.

Since the financial crisis in 2007, shadow banking has been recognized as the cause of the crisis in the world. This article empirically analysis the relationship between shadow banking and the implementation of monetary policy in Iran by using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium method. This study shows that shadow banking is growing rapidly in Iran, and due to lack of activity within the framework of Central Bank regulations, it can reduce the effectiveness of monetary policies. In order to investigate the role of shadow banking, the effects of monetary policy shock have been investigated in two different scenarios. In both cases of expansionary monetary policy or contraction monetary policy, with the scenario of considering shadow banking in the economy, disruptive effects on growth and inflation variables were observed. So that with the application of expansionary monetary policy, the production changes after a period become negative, and with the application of contraction monetary policy, taking shadow banking into account, the amount of reduction in production and the general level of prices occurs to a lesser extent, and in fact The effects of the contraction policy have been reduced. In the model after tightening monetary policy, regular banks reduce the amount of loans on their balance sheet while shadow banks increase lending. This reduces the real effects of the shock, but at the same time shadow banks amplify the reaction of key variables to real shocks and can make the financial sector and the whole economy more unstable and take the economy out of the path of stability and development

Due to the importance of developing non-oil exports in the country, in this study, the cement export market, which is one of the basic and strategic industries, has been studied. Therefore, by calculating the productivity threshold, counting the costs of penetration of the trading partner countries, the export growth rate has been studied by solow model, panel data and methods Econometrics (FGLS) for the period 2003-2020. Results for 12 trading partner countries shows that firms with productivity close to the threshold value are able to the more penetrate in market. However, the presence of external threats (such as economic sanctions, recession in the country, transportation facilities, coronary heart disease and etc.) has a negative impacted on the growth rate of cement exports despite the increasing influence of firms’ penetration in the market. In addition, measures such as increasing the productivity of enterprises, expanding international marketing activities and government support policies the effects of external threats on cement exports have somewhat reduced.

Due to the importance of developing non-oil exports in the country, the industry sector is one of the important economic sectors that, through creating new job opportunities, meeting the needs of technology and machinery of other sectors, on the one hand, meet the basic and welfare needs of people. and on the other hand, it creates desirable institutional and social changes. Therefore, the place of the industry in achieving economic development is undeniable and prominent. So, in this study, the cement export market, which is one of the basic and strategic industries, has been studied. The purpose of this paper is to use the Melitz model to examine the effect of productivity along with financial variables (capital intensity and debt) and exchange rates on the export growth of Iranian cement manufacturing firms during the period 2003-2020. Thus, by the Solow model, panel data, FGLS method, first the productivity of each firm was calculated. Then, by PMG method, the short-term and long-term effects of firms’ productivity on the export growth of Iranian cement manufacturing firms were estimated. In the following the effect of firm financial structure and exchange rate variables along with firms’ productivity was estimated. The results show that productivity and other variables do not effect on the growth of firms’ exports in the short run, but in the long run, productivity and other effective factors have had a significant effect on the export growth of firms. Therefore, productivity is a necessary and not sufficient condition for the export of firms’ cement in Iran. Also, considering a productivity threshold for Iraq as the most important destination country of Iranian cement among other countries, existence positive relationship between productivity higher than the threshold of cement exporters and their exports to Iraq indicates the application of the Melitz model in Iranian cement exports.

Today, many companies and manufacturers are trying to enter the international market. Due to the new conditions of the current markets, it is no possible to enter such markets by trial and error. Therefore, considering the importance of this issue, this study tries to examine the effects of sanctions resulting from the Barjam and post-Barjam agreements on two selected industries that are domestically produced in Iran and traded internationally. In other words, if these industries are subject to sanctions, although they are not subject to sanctions, what will be the performance of these industries at the international level. Therefore, this study seeks to examine the variability of market share of these industries during sanctions or the absence of sanctions.

Since the economic activities of each country are not limited to the domestic environment, their competitiveness is not focused on the domestic environment, and each country has trade relations with different countries. One of the important factors for countries to choose trade partners is proximity and geographical proximity, the existence of economic and political relations between the two countries. Based on this, Ragman proposed a concept model called dual diamond for smaller countries, which was a combination of the internal characteristics of countries and their trading partners. Ragman states his model that a country's competitive advantage is due to the internal and external environment of countries, and the outcome of the diamond model factors in these two environments determines the competitiveness of countries.

According to the analysis of the effectiveness of two commodities drug and steel trade, one of which is not subject to sanctions and the other has been subject to sanctions, the use of sustainable market share index is more beneficial than other methods of evaluating comparative advantage and competitiveness. According to this index, a country's exports are successful if they can grow at least as much as global imports. This growth can be due to a focus on commodities whose consumption is increasing worldwide (commodity effect) or a focus on target markets whose consumption is growing faster than the global average (national effect) or the internal factors of the exporting country that increase Influence and share in target markets (competitive effect). Therefore, in order to estimate the above three effects, in this paper, the CMS method developed by Lamer and Stern has been used. 

About of drug commodities, in 2016 and 2019, the commodity effect of commodity drugs has been positive for the countries under study. But in 2017 and 2018, the commodity effect of the drug has been negatived for all countries surveyed. Country effect in 2016 and 2017 was positive for Germany, Russia and Norway, and in 2019 was positive only in Russia. about of steel, in 2016 and 2019, the negative commodity effect was obtained, and in 2017 and 2018, it was positive for all countries. In other words, in 2016 and 2019, the growth of steel imports slowed down than the growth of imports of other goods in the world, and in 2017 and 2018, it also accelerated. Country effect of steel, among target market countries, shows in 2016 for Thailand and Belgium, in 2017 for Italy, Spain, Turkey and Belgium, in 2018 for Italy, Thailand, Spain and Belgium and in 2019 is also a positive year for Thailand.

Stable Market Share Index (CMS) in relation to drug products shows that Iran's advantage in the drug market in 2018 and 2019 is not stable. The change in net exports (total effect) in all export markets of the country is negative, which goes beyond the negative effect of goods in 2018 and the positive effect in 2019, which is outside the will of the country, on the one hand due to improper selection of markets such as France, UK, Germany. And Norway (their country effect is negative) and on the other hand returns to the negative competitive effect in the last two years of the study period. In 2016, among the target markets studied, Germany and in 2017 and 2019, Russia are the best target markets for Iranian medicine. According to the index of stable market share in relation to steel goods (goods subject to sanctions), Iran in abuot of commodity effect in 2017 and 2018 has a better situation than in 2016 and 2019. Country effect shows that among the countries studied, Turkey is the worst and Thailand is the best destination for Iranian steel exports during the years under study. As the results show, the competitive effect is positive for all countries surveyed during 2016 and 2017. This means that Iran has been able to control a large part of the steel imports of these countries in these two years, but in 2018 and 2019, due to the withdrawal of the United States from the Barjam agreement and the direct impact of these sanctions, this effect has been negative.

Regarding the importance of the concept of human development as the main objective of development and consequently, the reduce gender inequality and also, importance of the potential role of women in the process of economic growth and development, over the past few decades, economists and international organizations including the United Nations, have emphasized the status and contribution of women in development process as one of the development criteria. In this research, the status of women in the development process in Islamic countries has been evaluated and compared on the base of 26 selected indicators, using the numerical taxonomy method in 2005 and 2015. The results of the research show that in this period, in the most of Islamic countries, the status of women in development process compared to men has improved, although, the dispersion and inequality among the countries has increased. According to research results, in 2005, women in Qatar and Chad with a development degree of 0.68 and 0.99 and in 2015, in Kazakhstan and Chad, with degree of 0.64 and 1/1, respectively, have the highest and lowest status in development process. By comparing the degree of development of Iran from 0/84 to 0/83 from 2005 to 2015, it can be said that although gender inequality in development in Iran, has slightly reduced, its ranking in among 33 Islamic countries has fallen from 15 to 17. Also, the coefficient of dispersion in the Islamic countries in gender inequality in development has increased from 0.88235 in 2005 to 0.11219 in 2015.

Take a look at the trend of macroeconomic variables such as exchange rate and inflation in Iran, shows that these variables have had a relatively Instable trend in recent years. However, the effects of the uncertainty of these variables and their interactions have received very little attention in the country. Therefore, this study investigating the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on inflation and interest rate uncertainty and the role monetary and fiscal policy credibility on it using quarterly data during the period 1991-2019. For this purpose, initially using the three-variable VECH and BEKK methods, uncertainty in the variables is estimated. The results show that BEKK method is more suitable for estimating uncertainty than VECH method. Then using the VAR structure, Investigating the Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Inflation and Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Role Monetary and fiscal policy credibility on it. The results show that exchange rate uncertainty and inflation rate uncertainty affect each other. Also, exchange rate uncertainty and interest rate uncertainty intensify each other. Rising interest rates increase interest rate uncertainty and rising inflation increases inflation uncertainty. This result means the confirmation of the Friedman-Ball hypothesis and the rejection of the Pourgerami and Maskus hypothesis. The results also show that the credit of monetary and fiscal policies reduces the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on interest rate uncertainty and inflation.

The COVID-19 pandemic produced an enormous impact on human society with multiple health, social and economic effects. The impact on international trade has been enormous. Thus, the World Trade Organization (WTO) states that “the COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the global economy and world trade, as production and consumption are scaled back across the globe”. Thus, the spreading of the general pandemic COVID-19 has caused significant changes in the volume and structure of trade between countries. This essay examines the trade ties between Iran and other countries in the world trade network before and after the outbreak of the Covid-19. To this end, using the data provided by 149 countries during 2018 and 2020 and also drawing on Network Analysis Method and Leiden’s Community Detection Algorithms, and then utilizing the indicators of centrality and density, the county's position in the Asian-African trade complex was put to examination. By comparing the structure of the trade network during the 2018 and 2020, the results show that with the outbreak of the Covid-19, the structure of trade relations and the position of most of the countries, especially Iran, has been severely affected, to an extent that the indicators of centrality of strength, closeness, the Eigen vector and density indicator have decreased in 2020 compared to 2018, which demonstrates the downfall in the share of trade and the decline in the importance and position of countries, especially Iran.

This study investigated trade integration and the role of Iran in ECO and D8 trade agreements in this study. The regional trade integration index and centrality indices for ECO and D8 agreements were measured by using the data of 150 countries during 1980-2019 and complex networks approach. The results from regional trade integration index revealed that trade relations of these two agreements’ members with each other, was very lower than their trade relations with other countries out of the agreements. Also, the findings from Iranian’s regional trade integration index in ECO and D8 agreements showed that trade relations of Iran with the members of these two agreements was very lower than trade relations with other countries. Therefore, ECO and D8 agreements have not had considerable impact on developing trade relations of Iran with other members of the afore mentioned agreements. strength centrality index indicated that bilateral trade of the country with the members of ECO and D8 has decreased during the years of study. Also, eigenvector centrality index for the members of ECO and D8 was relatively low in 1980,1990 and 2000 and it was improved in 2010 and 2019. Density index for ECO and D8 show that the trade relations between their members have insufficient integration.

Still influenced by Cold War thinking, many countries may interact in the international scenario through competition rather than cooperation. However, in most cases it is not possible to choose permanent trade policies, because by changing the structure of production and the level of development, the interests of countries change. As a result, several forms of strategic interaction emerge during the trade policy process. Accordingly, in this paper, using an asymmetric evolutionary game model and adding a win-win game hypothesis, the effects of applying a cooperation strategy instead of competing in international affairs are analyzed. Examining evolution in the context of game theory helps to better explain phenomena such as cooperative behaviors; therefore, in this study, the dynamic mechanism of change in the period 2005 to 2018 has been considered. Based on the results of the evolutionary game under mixed strategy, Iran will act as a leader due to its higher bargaining power and will choose a competitive strategy instead of cooperating with Turkey, and instead, Turkey will play the role of follower and Instead of competing with Iran, it chooses to cooperate, especially if the projected cost of losing the competition is high. However, in the dynamic evolutionary game under the new win-win hypothesis, it is realized that a strategy of cooperating in trade with Iraq and helping to develop it, is likely to be a logical option for Iran and Turkey. Also, with the presence of Russia, the possibility of gaining more benefits by choosing a cooperation strategy instead of competition will be higher.

According to the specific characteristics of the economic sectors and sub-sectors of each sector, it is likely that these sectors and their sub-sectors show different response to a monetary shock. The present study has been conducted on how the anticipated and unanticipated monetary shocks affect the growth rate of the industrial sector in terms of symmetry or asymmetry of effects in business and credit cycles. In this study, the effect of the mentioned shocks on the growth rate of the industry is investigated in three models separately (Model in conventional conditions and without economic fluctuations, model with business cycles and model with credit cycles), Using seasonal time series data from 1988 to 2019 and the nonlinear approach of Markov Switching, seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) and the linear regression method. Based on the results of the SUR technique, in normal economic conditions, the industry and mining sector and its sub-sectors do not react significantly to the anticipated and unanticipated monetary shocks.  Using the regime switching probabilities and business and credit cycles derived from Markov methods MSMAH (2,5,0) and MSM (2) -AR (4), the linear regression results show the asymmetric effect of anticipated and unanticipated monetary shocks in both business and credit cycles. In a way that, in the state of the business  cycles, unanticipated shocks are more effective in expansionary than in recession and in the state of the credit cycles, these shocks have a stronger effect on stimulating production in the conditions of credit slowdowns.

In present study, Iranian trade network has been analyzed in the world trade network using a complex network approach and the role of trade agreements in ECO, D8 and Organization of Islamic Cooperation. To achieve this purpose, the data of 150 countries during 2010-2019 has been investigated through complex network approach and Louvain Community Detection Algorithm. This lead to recognize trade communities and situation of Iran among some selected business communities using indices of centrality, clustering and density. In order to study the role of regional trade agreements, business communities were compared with the network of trade agreements through the use of Information theory criterion. The results showed that Iran has been in Asia-Africa trade community during the years. The findings related to density and clustering index demonstrated the improvement in multilateral trade relations between the countries. However, the centrality indices indicated the decline in Iran's position in 2019 compared to 2010 in the mentioned trade community. The criterion of Information Theory revealed that trade agreements have not played important role in countries’ decisions related to trade so that this role has been decreased within this period in the global trade network. Consequently, the importance of transregional countries in domestic trade is very vital.

The present study investigates the effect of economy openness on financial development in a sample of 152 countries from 1995 to 2015emphasizing on countries income level. 

After reviewing indexes used as proxies to financial development, we used liquid liabilities, the proportion of bank assets and the proportion of credits granted to private sector as proxies to financial development and after specifying different models, the effect of economy openness on each index was separately investigated. 

Results show that economy openness has a positive and significant effect on financial development. Despite resistance of these results to different financial development indexes, its impact is sensitive to the kind of index and the selected sample.
When liquid liabilities and granted credits to private sector are considered proxies to financial development, moving from the sample including low-income countries with incomes below average to the sample including high-income ones with incomes above average, the impact of economy openness on financial development increases. Moreover, if the proportion of banks assets is used as the proxy to financial development, moving from the sample including low-income countries with incomes below average to the sample including high-income ones with incomes above average, the impact of economy openness on financial development decreases. Accordingly, although the impact of economy openness on financial development is positive, the level of this impact is sensitive to the selected index and consequently the kind of selected index is important in conclusion.In this study, the impact of variables i.e. logarithm of GPD per capita, inflation and the degree of economy openness on financial development has been studied. The results indicate the positive impact of GDP per capita on financial development. This result is resistant to the sample and selected index for financial development. However, due to different indexes and samples, definite results have not been obtained regarding the impact of inflation and the degree of economy openness on financial development. The impact of these variables is sensitive to the selected sample and indexes.

Based on results, although economy openness has a positive impact on financial development, the level of this impact is sensitive to the selected index for financial development. Therefore, the selected index is of high importance for financial development. Furthermore, results show that GDP per capita logarithm has a positive impact on financial development. This result is resistant to the kind of sample and selected index. However, definite results regarding the impact of inflation and the degree of economy openness on financial development have not been obtained and their impact is sensitive to selected samples and the kind of financial development index.

Today, preferential and free trade agreements play an effective role in expanding trade in goods and services at the international level and as common practice in business planning and facilitating trade. The purpose of this article is to examine the trade and welfare effects of Iranchr('39')s free trade agreement with Turkey, India and Pakistan. For this purpose, using the Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE) model and version 10 of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), three scenarios of concluding a free trade agreement with each of these countries were simulated. The results show that most of the welfare effects of the free trade agreement between Iran and Turkey are  2027 million Dollars, India is 1311 million Dollars and Pakistan is very small, about  38 million Dollars . On this basis, it was suggested that the Iranian government first enter into a free trade agreement with Turkey on mineral products, agriculture and services. And with India be centered on industrial, mineral, food and service products, and on rice and cereals by eliminating customs tariffs more restrictively and over time. Regarding Pakistan, it is necessary to identify the trade field between the two countries during trade negotiations and to provide the term for the success of the bilateral free trade agreement between the two countries by increasing bilateral trade exchanges.

Achieving optimal economic growth is always one of the most important goals of any country, and due to the role of public debt in financing capital and economic growth, different views have been formed in this regard. One of the most recent views pertains to the non-linear relationship between public debt and economic growth. In this view, in the first regime, public debt has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while in the second regime and after crossing the threshold level, it has a negative effect on economic growth. Accordingly, this study attempts to investigate the nonlinear effect of public debt on the economic growth rate for a selected group of countries; it also attempts to determine their respective threshold level. For this purpose, using the data for the period 1980-2017 and the Pool model, the existence of nonlinear effect of public debt on economic growth was investigated; In addition, using the threshold regression model (PTR), the debt threshold level of each country was determined. Findings confirmed an asymmetric U-reverse effect of public debt on economic growth. Correspondingly, it was found that the threshold level in the selected countries is lower on average compared with ‎developed countries.

In the present study, the effect of economic uncertainty on the efficiency of monetary policy has been investigated using data from the first quarter of 1989 to the fourth quarter of 1396. For the purpose of the present study, first, we determine the optimal economic uncertainty index by using SOS search algorithm. After determining the optimal economic uncertainty index, using the Interaction Vector Autoregressive (IVAR) approach to calculate the impulse response functions (IRFs) of inflation and production variables to the shock of M_1 variable under high and low uncertainty levels. The results show that under different levels of uncertainty, the variable response of production and inflation to the shock of the M_1 variable is different, so that the response of production variable under low uncertainty is higher than the high uncertainty level, while the variable response Inflation is reversed, meaning that the response to this shock, under high uncertainty is higher than the low uncertainty level.

In recent years, electronic banking and the use of electronic payment tools have expanded, and this has led to changes in monetary variables that can have many economic effects. In this regard, in this study, the effect of electronic banking on selected economic variables in Iran has been investigated using modeling and simulation of system dynamics. The designed model includes two parts, monetary and real, which also includes electronic banking. After simulating and validating the model, in the form of designed scenarios, the effects of electronic banking on economic variables are investigated. The results of applying different scenarios showed that the increase of ATMs has reduced the volume of liquidity, price index, capital accumulation and production and the increase of sales terminals has increased the mentioned variables. Simultaneous increase in ATMs and sales terminals also increased liquidity and price index and had no effect on capital accumulation and production. The results also showed that in this case, increasing the volume of legal reserves as a control policy can neutralize some of the effects of these instruments on liquidity.

One of the important developments in the payment system is the emergence of new payment tools known as electronic payment instruments. With the help of electronic payment tools, the possibility of earning money by stealing is reduced; Thus reducing the amount of theft is a predicted resultof increased access to electronic payment instruments. In this research, this hypothesis has been investigated for the period between 1386- 1394 using data from Iran's provinces.

Panel GMM method is used to estimate the regression equation.

The results show that the expansion of electronic payment tools in Iranian provinces has had a negative effect on theft. Also, the rate of urbanization, the misery index (sum of the unemployment rate and inflation rate), industrialization and income inequality have had a positive impact on theft. Accordingly, some policy suggestions have been offered to extend the use of these tools. 

Different sectors emit carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere which comprises 83 percent of the gases responsible for climate warming. In this paper we have for the first time forecast the emission of CO2 by different sectors across Iran. Sectors were recognized based on EIA guidelines. The aim was to examine trends and forecast the emission of CO2 in the country for the period 1960-2013 and by the polluting sectors over the years 1971-2010. The last three years of data of polluting sectors were used to predict patterns. Prediction of CO2 emission was conducted for each sector and the whole country for the year 2034. The highest emission was related to transport sector and the lowest to the industrial sector. Forecast show that by the year 2034, the service sector will most likely surpass the transport sector in terms of CO2 emission and using GARCH method, per capita CO2 emission will increase to 10.09 tons.

The purpose of this paper is to study The social cost of carbon (SCC) is an important concept for understanding and implementing climate change policies, In Iran using economic data of the time period (1390-1395). This term represents the economic cost caused by an additional ton of carbon dioxide emissions or its equivalent. In this study three approaches to investigate and compare the results have been used, the approach is the use of applying the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy (DICE-2016R). World Bank indices and energy balance sheet, the amount of years of life lost. The study estimates that the SCC is 513891.232 Rial per ton of CO2 in 1395 and international prices for the current period (1400). Also, the results indicate that, following the implementation of carbon emission control policies, production and consumption in early periods will be reduced And with the replacement of technology, it's going up. The important point of the paper is that using the lost years of life results in more reliable results than other methods.

In the present study, the optimal economic uncertainty index for the Iranian economy during the period 1990: 1 to 2017: 4 has been determined. In this regard, contemporaneous economic uncertainty function, which includes variables of output growth gap, inflation gap, exchange rate growth gap and monetary base, is specified along with other structural equations of Iranian economy and its parameters are determined by Symbiotic Organism Search (SOS) optimization algorithm so that minimize the loss function of central bank of Iran. The coefficients obtained for the variables of output growth, inflation, exchange rate and monetary base are 0.22, 1.03, 2.27, and 0.99, respectively, indicating that the two variables of exchange rate and inflation are more important in creating Economic uncertainty. The index is stationary and also indicates a high level of uncertainty in the two seventies and nineties compared to the eighties. The index shows that in only seven sections, the index of uncertainty is approximately zero, all of which are in the eighties, and in other periods the index is positive or negative.

Financial markets especially capital market can make strong connections with other parts of the economy. After 2007/2008 financial crisis and global extensive economic recession, the economists show interest in the financial markets function again. The purpose of this study is to design and calibrate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium new Keynesian model with Stock market dynamism to investigate the stock market channal effectiveness mechanism on macroeconomics variables. So an open DSGE model containing households, firms, banks, government and central bank was designed and after log-linearization, then the model’s parameters were calibrated using quarterly data 1996:3-2013:2 and experimental studies results. This study shows that a negative shock to stock price index in the DSGE model via financial accelerator and bank capital channel will result in decrease production, consumption, investment, deposits and inflation and therefor the macroeconomic variables such as consumption, investment and production have stronger relationship with stock market dynamism