سارا قبادی

Water crisis is considered as one of the biggest challenges that most regions of the world, especially Iran, are facing. Indiscriminate surface and underground water extraction and successive droughts have limited water resources. Population growth has also led to an increase in demand and consumption in the water chain and food industry (especially agricultural products) and emphasizes the necessity of using virtual water as an efficient approach.
According to the report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) in 2022, half of the world population faces severe water shortages at least for part of the year. Due to the centrality of the severe lack of water resources in the world, the first major United Nations conference on water was held in 2023, and in general, the decade from 2018 to 2028 was named as the "International Decade of Water for Sustainable Development". Although the water cycle changes are often evaluated only based on physical water flows and its reserves, this method is not effective on a larger scale and in relation to the global water cycle, and it also emphasizes the need to pay attention to "virtual water" flows which should be considered in addition to the physical flows of water.

In order to design the patterns examined in this research, the gravity pattern has been used. This model is mainly used for the analysis of environmental effects in international trade, as it allows the consideration of variables with potential impact such as income, population, geographical distances and institutional factors in an economic framework. The gravity model was applied in this research in order to estimate the research patterns and since the current research has faced the problem of zero in the independent variables as well as zero imports from trading countries for some products, using the estimator method Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) was also used. It is worth mentioning here that PPML is a suitable method to solve the problems mentioned above.

According to the investigations, Iran's virtual water trade balance has a positive relationship with the bilateral exchange rate and a negative relationship with the distance and population ratio, and for the variable of GDP, this relationship is positive for other products except watermelon. Iran is also an exporter of watermelon and pistachio products and an importer of virtual water for two products of wheat and rice, and an exporter of virtual water for date products due to the fact that it is only for export. In general, it is considered a virtual water exporter. The existence of quantitative and qualitative problems in the country’s water resources and the location of Iran in an arid and semi-arid region and facing water shortage crises, is necessary to pay attention to the demand for water at the macro level and formulate basic plans for the sustainable use of water resources. Therefore, the use of virtual water trade approach by countries shows a favorable performance in relation to useful management measures. This research, while using the gravity model and the PPML estimator, studies the factors affecting the bilateral trade balance of virtual water in five major agricultural products of Iran (wheat, rice, dates, pistachios, and watermelon) in terms of sustainable development approach.

In this research, bilateral virtual water trade about rice, watermelon, dates, wheat, and pistachio products between Iran and its major agricultural partners has been investigated. Examining the export and import data of agricultural products shows that these products are important and strategic products which include the largest amount of export and import of Iran's agriculture and the largest volume of virtual water trade. Therefore, the obtained results can be an example of the country's virtual water business. According to the investigations, Iran's virtual water trade balance has a positive relationship with the bilateral exchange rate and a negative relationship with the distance and population ratio, and for the variable of GDP, this relationship is positive for other products except watermelon. Also, the results indicate that virtual water import is more for wheat and rice products and virtual water export is more for pistachio and watermelon products. Regarding the date product, water extraction is relatively less than other studied products, and since the product is exported and the import level is very small, virtual water export is higher. In general, Iran can be considered as an exporter of virtual water over the period.
Considering the existing conditions, Iran should act in order to achieve sustainable development by reducing virtual water exports and saving water resources. Since access to water resources and its optimal use and food production are among the benefits of human societies, sustainable development is considered an excellent approach that emphasizes the necessity of water resources management and its impact on human societies

The significance of inflation in the economic system and the production reduction or loss resulted from an anti-inflation policy as an integral part of inflation control policies, should never be underrated. It is critically important to study the sacrifice ratio and influencing factors which measure the accumulated losses in real production as a result of one percent permanent reduction in the inflation. It is considered as a criterion which makes it possible to somehow evaluate the effects of inflation control policies imposed by the central bank. Therefore, in the present research, the factors influencing the sacrifice ratio are identified by emphasizing the government debt in Iran and using seasonal data (1997-2021).

In order to achieve the goal of the research, the following relationship is considered:SRt=β0+β1(DebtGdp)t+β2Opent+β3Speedt +β4Transt+β5Itt+εt (1)SRt : The sacrifice ratio is equal to the cumulative amount of the reaction of economic growth to the monetary shock, while the denominator only shows the final effect of the change in inflation as a result of a monetary shock. This ratio is calculated as follows:SR=S=0T∂yt+s∂εm1∂t+T∂εmt  (2) Itt : Inflation targeting is defined as an optimal monetary policy. The optimal monetary policy is obtained by minimizing the social loss function according to the constraints of the monetary transmission mechanism. The inflation targeting policy is calculated as follows:πt*=πt+yt-y+et-et-1   (3)πt,πt*  are inflation rate and target inflation rate respectively, (yt-y)  is the deviation of the product from its potential level, et  is the exchange rate (dollar price of the country's currency).(DebtGdp)t : The ratio of debt to GDP for governments shows their ability to repay their existing loans and repay the loans they will receive. Opent : The degree of trade openness is defined as the ratio of total exports and imports to GDP and reflects economic development and diversity. Speedt : The speed of deflation is equal to the ratio of the total amount of deflation to the length of time during which inflation has decreased.TranstThe instrument of monetary policy is more transparent, which can reveal the actions of the monetary policy maker better and faster to the public. The index defined for transparency was considered as the following relationship:TIBLt =110 -1INFibound-INFt if INFt =INFt* if INFilower-boundt <INFt <in< m:r=""></in<>Fiupper-boundif INFt ≥INFiupper-bound or INFt ≤INFilower-bound   (4)INFi  consumer price index, INFt* monthly inflation, INFibound  time interval of inflation in each year, INFi*  inflation was considered and calculated and the past transparency index. When transparency is high, this index is equal to one, and if inflation is very high and in otherwords, transparency is very low, the index above will be equal to zero.To achieve the goal of this research, the Smooth Transition Regression Model (STR) is used.

The results obtained from the estimation of the model indicate that (DebtGdp)t-1  is the transition variable of the sacrifice ratio function. So that when (DebtGdp)t-1  reaches the threshold of 0.817, the function of the sacrifice ratio enters the second limit regime. The results indicate that (DebtGdp)t  and Opent  in both regimes have a positive effect on the sacrifice ratio and this effect is strengthened in the second regime. In the second regime, the Speedt  also had a positive effect on the sacrifice ratio. Also, Transt  and Itt  have had a negative effect on the sacrifice ratio in both regimes, but this effect has been strengthened in the second regime.

In relation to the positive effect of (DebtGdp)t  on the sacrifice ratio, it can be said that an increase in government debt increases the wealth of bond holders, provided that other wealth items are constant, so the price of long-term bonds increases. The total demand and price level increase at the same time. In this case, the supply of money, which is endogenous and a function of the demand and the amount of government debt, increases in accordance with the demand for money. In this case, the price level, which is the balancing factor of the future nominal value of discounted wealth and the nominal value of public debt, increases. Therefore, the cost of deflationary policies has increased and ultimately leads to an increase in the sacrifice ratio.Expansionary monetary policy can lead to excess demand inthe economy and thus cause an increase in the general level of prices, and the pressure to increase prices can be reduced through imports and thus by changes in the balance of payments. In fact, trade openness may shift some of the inflationary pressure to the balance of payments, resulting in lower average increases in the general price level. The positive effect of increasing speed of reducing inflation, in the second regime has led to an increase in the sacrifice ratio.In general, the improvement in the transparency index will be effective in reducing the sacrifice ratio. In case of transparency in Central Bank data, it could be potentially considered as one of the key tools in the field of monetary policy management. In fact, the transparency of information will lead to an increase in the commitment of Central Bank in dealing with inflation. It could also control inflation and ultimately lead to a reduction in the cost of deflationary policies, and sacrifice ratio decrease.Inflation targeting by means of public announcement of official quantitative targets for the rate of inflation over one or more times horizons could be considered as a workable policy. By explicit declarations, low and stable inflation will be assumed as the main goal of monetary policy in the long run. Inflation targeting minimizes the motivation of Central Bank to show opportunistic behavior and this may increase the credibility of this regulatory institution in the loner term. Subsequently, the general public will adjust their inflation expectations in a fast state and therefore the costs of deflationary policies will decrease in return.

Given the role of smart tourism development in ensuring the sustainability of destinations and improving tourist experiences, as well as the importance of changing policymakers' perspectives on tourism development and its infrastructure, it is essential to examine the position of sustainable tourism development alongside smart technologies and its significance for the economic growth of tourism destinations. Therefore, this study aimed to design an econometric model to investigate the impact of sustainable smart tourism development on economic growth and to estimate it for selected destinations. To facilitate a comparison of these destinations, two categories of tourism destinations in East and West Asia were selected. According to the results, sustainable smart tourism development led to improved economic growth in the studied destinations, and an increase in the variables driving the enhancement of the tourism industry's added value also contributed to economic growth in these destinations. In this estimation, the effect of increased environmental pollution indices showed a reduction in economic growth. Additionally, the Dummy variable introduced to compare the two categories of selected tourism destinations was found to be significant, indicating that the leadership of East Asian countries in planning for sustainable smart tourism development has positively influenced their models and economic growth.

The purpose of this research is to examine the effect of the economic sanctions shock on the industrial competitiveness index with emphasis on the industrialization intensity and the quality of exports with the structural auto-regression approach in the period of 1990-2020. The results indicate that the shock caused by the import goods price index had effects with negative and positive fluctuations on the industrialization intensity, and on the export quality had a negative effect at the beginning of the period and a positive effect at the end of the period. On the other hand, the shock caused by the export goods price index on the industrialization intensity and the quality of exports has been accompanied by positive and negative fluctuations. The exchange relationship does not affect the industrialization intensity and has a positive effect on the export quality. The production and export of crude oil have had an effect on the industrialization intensity with positive, negative, and finally neutral fluctuations, and a positive effect on the quality of exports. The effect of foreign direct investment is positive on the industrialization intensity and negative on the quality of exports. The ratio of trade balance shock to GDP has had an effect on the industrialization intensity and the quality of exports with positive and negative fluctuations and in the end neutral. According to the above results, it can be argued that the effect of economic sanctions on the industrialization intensity index and the quality of exports depends to some extent on government policies, investments related to research and development, and the codification of an industrialization strategy.

Improving the quality of logistics performance, which includes activities such as transportation, integration of commercial loads, domestic distribution and payment systems, enables the improvement of competitiveness in international trade. The impartiality of government policies, can affect the production and variety of export goods, investment and the granting of government aid in order to create educational infrastructure and produce knowledge, thereby contributing to economic complexity. The purpose of this article is to analyze the effects of logistics performance quality and impartiality of government policies on economic complexity and to evaluate the mediating effect of economic complexity in transferring the effects of the aforementioned indicators on economic growth in 19 selected developing countries with lower middle income in the period of 2013-2021. So, the effects of logistics performance and impartiality of government policies on economic complexity and the effect of economic complexity on economic growth were estimated by GMM method. The results showed that the logistics performance quality and impartiality of government policies had a positive effect on economic complexity and economic complexity had positive effect on economic growth. The calculation of Sobel's statistic confirms the mediating effect of economic complexity in transferring the effect of the mentioned indicators on economic growth.

The analysis of macroeconomic consequences the economic impact of global oil price shocks on the economic components of countries is not simple. Based on this, in the current research, the macroeconomic consequences of global oil supply and demand shocks have been investigated. The statistical sample of the present research is 11 countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, America, Kuwait, Nigeria, Angola, Libya, Iran and Oman, which have the highest oil export ranking in 2022, during the period of 2001 to 2022. In order to calculate global oil price shocks, the approach of Kilian (2009) was used, and the panel structral vector autoregression method (PSVAR) was used to analyze the data. In general and based on the analyzes carried out, it was found that global oil price shocks had positive and stable effects on the variables of non-oil trade volume, money volume and government size, while negative and stable effects on production variables. GDP and real exchange rate. It was also observed that the impact of global oil price shocks on the studied variables was different, so that the highest impact was related to oil demand shock and the lowest impact was related to specific oil demand shock. Based on this, it is concluded that in examining the effect of oil price shocks on macroeconomic parameters of countries, the effects of oil shocks with different sources should be considered separately.

Due to the forward-looking nature of economic decisions, forecasting the trend of macroeconomic variables has a fundamental role in economic planning and policies. For this purpose, the present study attempts to extract the financial conditions index for the period 1991-2019, then the movement trend of macroeconomic variables has been forecasted using the Time-Varying Parameter Factor-Augmented Vector Auto-Regressive (TVP-FAVAR). The results show that the financial conditions index has undergone significant changes in recent years, especially in the 2010s, which has had an effective role in the fluctuations of other markets due to the influence and change in the behavior of other macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, forecasting the trend of macroeconomic variables also indicates that this trend is unstable; in other words, instability in the trend of macroeconomic variables is evident and we cannot expect a positive outlook for the above variables.

According to the emphasis of the Ball Committee, the survival rate of any economy is proportional to the resilience rate of its banks, and, when economic crises occur, the resilience of banks is too important. Then the purpose of this research is to investigate the indicators of the development of the banking sector that can affect the resilience of the Iranian banking system. Therefore, with the help of previous research, some factors were identified and the data were collected for 30 banks and credit institutions during the years 2000 to 2020 in the form of unbalanced panels. After that, the level of resilience was calculated with the help of the Volare index, and the type of relationships was evaluated with the help of the dynamic data panel method. The results showed that among the 18 indicators investigated as factors affecting the resilience of the Iranian banking system, only 9 factors are nonlinearly related to resilience. Resilience variables of the previous period, banking efficiency, the ratio of Interest-Free Income to total income, and the ratio of low-cost resources to total resources, have a direct relationship with resilience, and the indicators of bank size, shareholders' equity to debt, the ratio of loans to free resources, the ratio of the cost of doubtful loans to total expenses and the level of risk tolerance, had an indirect relationship. Also, private or public banks had no significant relationship with resilience. In conclusion, the resilience process of Iranian banks from 2000 to 2020 was drawn.

Investment is one of basic necessity of economical growth for each country. Non-economicalfactors such as , the sort of government and its quality and competency of human resource areeffective in economic growth and direct foreign investment. Foreign direct investment is one ofthe most important factors in economic growth and development in most countries in the world.The main aim of this study is the investigating role of good government and human capital inattracting the direct foreign investment and economic growth in a group of selected developingcountry with panel data and extracted data from world Bank during interval of 1990-2018,byusing the systemic generalized method of moments(GMM).The result of models estimation of the study showed that the direct foreign investment and human capital and the factor of government have positive and significant effect on economic growth in developing country. Therefore it can be said the human capital and factor of good government in attracting direct foreign investment and improving economic growth have effective roles.

Aim and Introduction :

Over the past two decades, the banking system around the world has undergone significant changes in its operating environment, and several internal and external factors have influenced its structure and performance. Despite all these changes, the banking system remains the main source of financing economic activities in many countries. Therefore, evaluating the performance of the banking system is important. Profitability is one of the influential factors in evaluating the performance of banks. Thus, it is necessary to know the effective internal and external factors. The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of the concentration index on the profitability of the banking industry. On the other hand, banks as established and organized institutions play an important role in attracting stagnant capital and transferring it to productive sectors, as well as meeting the needs of investors. Since a competitive environment in the banking system can increase efficiency and facilitate financial transactions, identifying the market structure of the banking industry is important for policymakers and banking operators, because it can be the way to remove the obstacles in creating a competitive market.The policy makers could be selected the polices that achevied the economic goles.

In order to achieve this goal, the impact of factors affecting the risk and profitability of banks, we especially use the concentration index as one of the dimensions of the market structure in the banking industry. The method of estimation is generalized method of moments (GMM).For this purpose, concentration in the banking industry has been measured using the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. In addition, six control variables including capital adequacy, central bank assets ratio, deposit ratio, liquid assets ratio, credit ratio and cost-to-income ratio have been selected as explanatory-control variables. In this way, the explanatory variables of banks' profitability include bank-specific factors. Return on total assets and bank stability index have been used as profitability and risk criteria of banks. Also, the situation of the organized monetary market of 52 countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation was studied over the period 2005-2019.

Based on the findings of the research, the effects of independent variables in the profitability model are statistically significant and have positive effects on the profitability of banks. Regarding the main hypothesis of the research, i.e. the effect of the concentration index on the profitability of the banking system, it can be seen that the increase in market concentration has increased the profitability, which has a significant coefficient of 0.003817, which confirms the Structure-Conduct-Performance(SCP) hypothesis. In other words, based on this hypothesis, as the degree of market competition decreases, it becomes possible to earn higher profits. In addition, independent variables with lag of time (banking stability index, capital adequacy and return on assets) and the ratio of loans to deposits and the ratio of central bank assets have positive and significant impacts on risk.

Experimental results have shown that the each of the independent variables has positive and significant effect on risk and profitability. The estimation results have shown the positive effect of the market concentration index on banks' profitability. In this way, in the periods when the concentration in the banking industry is higher, the profitability of the banks is high and with the increase in the level of concentration, the profitability of the banks has increased. As stated in the theoretical foundations, there are various theories regarding the relationship between concentration and profitability of banks. Although these theories differ on how to create this relationship, almost all of them emphasize that increasing concentration increases the profitability of banks and reduces competition. In other words, these theories predict that the relationship between concentration and profitability is positive. The result of fitting the research model shows a positive and significant effect of the concentration index on the return on total assets. This means that increasing market concentration has increased profitability. According to the obvious realities in the economies of the sample countries, the intensity of concentration in the banking industry have significant consequences for the profitability of banks by affecting the efficiency and effectiveness of resources.

During crises, the best way to reduce economic vulnerability is to increase the stability of banks. According to Basel Committee's emphasis, the survival rate of any economy is proportional to the stability rate of its banks, and the stability of banks is also proportional to their efficiency rate. But in the current economic conditions of the country, where extensive political and economic risks are threatening the state of financial and monetary systems, examining the situation and predicting future risks, and preparing in advance to face high-risk conditions is the best way to deal with the effects of these threats. Therefore, as the most important step in examining the conditions of monetary institutions, it is very important to identify the factors affecting the development of the monetary sector that can affect the stability of banks. By knowing these indicators, banks can quickly adapt to new conditions, in such a way that they understand and absorb internal and external risks efficiently in the shortest possible time.

By examining the issue of stability of banks among the researchers registered in two scientific databases, “Web of Science and Scopus”, and transferring the keywords of 173 articles found in these two databases from 1991 to 2020 to Vosviewer software, the relationship between the keywords of these researches was checked with stability. According to the possibility or impossibility of collecting the statistics of these cases at the level of the country's banks, finally, 17 possible indicators affecting the stability of Iranian banks were identified. Then, their data were collected at the level of 30 Iranian public and private banks and credit institutions during 2002-2020. On the other hand, all the amounts involved in the indices were converted to the price of the base year of 2002 with the help of the inflation index calculator, available on the Central Bank website. Then, with the help of the econometric method of dynamic panel data, the relationship between these indicators and the stability values of the country's banks was examined and Sargan's post-estimation tests and AR(1) and AR(2) statistics were used to measure the validity and accuracy of the model. To estimate the model, firstly, by performing the unit root test of Im, Pesaran, and Shin, (specific to panel models in Stata software), the mean of each variable was evaluated. Since the degree of integration of all variables was not the same, with the help of the KAO cointegration test for panel data, the possibility of the existence of a relationship between independent and dependent variables was investigated. Then, with the help of the augmented Dickey-Fuller statistic, it was observed that hypothesis H0 was rejected and the association between the proposed independent variables and the dependent variable was stable. To determine stability-related variables, step-by-step invalid variables with a significance level greater than 0.05 were removed from the desired model and the new model was re-run until the final variables were determined.

The results showed that the first hypothesis was rejected, and efficiency was still an important factor in the stability of Iranian banks. Secondly, regarding the second hypothesis, the nature of banks, (whether they are public or private), was not considered an effective factor in their stability. Regarding the third hypothesis, 9 variables were involved with the stability of Iranian banks according to their coefficients. These variables include the ratio of Non-Performing Loan (NPL), the ratio of equity to assets, the ratio of fixed assets to total assets, previous period stability, the ratio of cash to total assets, total assets balance, the ratio of capital to liabilities, loan growth rate and the level of efficiency. Finally, the top efficient and stable Iranian banks were introduced in 2020 and the research findings were explained in the light of theoretical foundations.

According to the effect of assets and their components on the stability of banks, it is suggested that each bank’s optimal amount of assets be defined. Also, the lending rate should be changed by the growth of inflation to maintain the reasonable profit margin of the banks. Due to the importance of investigating the simultaneous effect of profitability and efficiency on the stability of banks in crisis conditions, it is necessary to investigate these cases in future research.

Improving efficiency and productivity has an impact on the main economic, social and political phenomena of societies, such as reducing the level of inflation, increasing the level of public welfare, increasing the level of employment and increasing competitiveness. Efficiency explains the degree of success of an economic unit or a country in the optimal use of inputs to produce output in comparison with other economic units and other countries, therefore, examining the effects of efficiency on macroeconomic variables is very important. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyze the effects of the goods market efficiency pillar in the global competitiveness index on economic growth with an emphasis on the factors affecting this efficiency (technology, trade and investment) in Asian countries with a moderately high competitiveness index during the period of 2008-2018. For this purpose, the effects of goods market efficiency on the economic growth of these countries were investigated using the panel vector error correction model (PVECM). In general, the results indicate that the positive shock of this type of efficiency (improving the efficiency of the goods market) in the medium and long run leads to an increase in the economic growth rate and a decrease in the unemployment rate. Also, the results showed that the most effective variable on the efficiency of the goods market is investment, which has the greatest impact on the efficiency of the goods market in the long run.

In recent years, the financial condition index (FCI) has been used in many countries as an important index to determine the state of macroeconomic policies. For this purpose, in the present study, the effects of financial condition index on macroeconomic variables were investigated by applying the time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (TVP-FAVAR) and using quarterly data during the period (1991-2019). The results indicate that the response type and response rate of macroeconomic variables were different due to the financial condition index shock over time, and this indicates the necessity of employing the parameter - variable approach. According to the obtained results , The unemployment rate and economic growth rate variables in the short and long term showed a Negative and positive response to behavioral changes in the financial condition index variable, respectively; The effects of the financial Conditions Index shock on the inflation rate variable appear after one period; However, the response of this variable to the financial condition index shock in the short and long term has been different according to the conditions prevailing on the economy of the country . Also, the financial conditions index shock in the short run has improved the Gini coefficient variable, but in the long run, especially in the late 2010s has rised the income gap. The response of the budget deficit variable to the financial condition index shock in the whole period under review was positive and the financial condition index shock has increased the government budget deficit.

This study investigate the relationship between agricultural value added and real effective exchange rate shocks using the NARDL approach and seasonal data for the period 2009Q4 to 2017Q4 in Iran. The results of the bounds test indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium(co-integration) between variables and the estimation of the model shows that appreciation or depreciation in real effective exchange rate in the long run has a negative and significant effect on the value added of agricultural sector at 10 percent. Also, interest rate on banking facilities and government expenditures in agricultural sector had a negative and significant effect at 1 percent. The results of the Wald test indicate that in the short run, the effect of real effective exchange rate shocks on the agricultural value added is asymmetric and in the long run the effect of these shocks is symmetric. Both in the short run and in the long run, the appreciation in real effective exchange rate will have a greater impact on the value added of the agricultural sector compared with its depreciation.

This study examines the interrelationships of clean energy, domestic and foreign capital, economic growth, and environmental quality in a group of developing countries during 1995-2018. In this regard, the GMM method has been used. To estimate the impact of domestic and foreign capital development, three different indicators such as foreign direct investment, stock markets, and credits allocated to the private sector have been used. The results show that the increase in clean energy by one to two percent, the emission of carbon dioxide by four, and the increase of foreign direct investment by one percent have increased economic growth. On the other hand, economic growth, while increasing clean energy consumption by an average of 11 percent, has also increased carbon dioxide emissions. Despite the positive mutual relationship between clean energy and economic growth, fossil fuels are still used more in the selected countries. Clean energy projects have lower efficiency and higher financing than other energy supply projects. Therefore, in developing countries, due to a lack of enough capital, few investments are made in these projects.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and ecological footprint in 27 developing countries and 27 developed countries during the period 1990-2018.

This paper analyzes the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, and ecological footprint in 27 selected developing countries and 27 selected developed countries over a period of 1990-2018. The present model was developed according to as Akadiri et al. (2019) and Mohammad et al. (2019), which are in the form of the following three equations:  (3)The EFP is an ecological footprint index that compares the rateof resource consumption and production of human waste with the rate of resource reproduction and waste disposal by the biosphere, being defined in terms of the amount of land needed to maintain this cycle. EG is described as the economic growth. NREC is the consumption of non-renewable energy and includes energy from combustible non-renewable energy, such as oil, gas, hydrocarbons, coal, and nuclear energy. REC is the consumption of renewable energy. FD is financial development. URB is the growth rate of urbanization. TO is the degree of trade openness. L is the labor force. K is an investment. HC is human capital. FR is the fertility rate. MR is the mortality rate. PI is political instability. TEC is the technology. KOFE is the globalization of the economy. In order to analyze the relationship between the mentioned variables, the Generalized Method of Moments (Sys-GMM) was used.

The results showed that in both groups of developed and developing countries, economic growth was correlated with energy consumption and ecological footprint index. Nonrenewable energy consumption, urbanization rate, fertility rate and mortality rate in both groups of the country had positive effects and the renewable energy, technological growth rate and human capital had negative effects on ecological footprint. Economic growth had a negative effect on the ecological footprint of developed countries and a positive effect on the ecological footprint of developing countries, which indicates that more developed countries rely on the use of renewable energy. Ecological footprint has a negative effect and economic growth, urbanization rate and financial development had positive effects on energy consumption in both groups of countries. Ecological footprint has had a negative effect on the economic growth of developed countries and a positive effect on the economic growth of developing countries. Renewable and non-renewable energy, financial development, degree of trade openness, physical capital, labor and economic globalization had positive effects and political instability and mortality rates had negative effects on economic growth in both groups.

Based on the results of the research, it is suggested that countries, especially developing countries, try to create and use clean energy. High information, proper education, exchange of information with other countries to benefit from the information and advanced goods that are in line with the environment, taxation of producers who use polluting energy and granting tax exemptions and low-interest and long-term loans to producers who use clean energy will reduce the ecological footprint. Given the impact of non-renewable and renewable energy on growth and economic development, the contradiction of the impact of economic growth on the ecological footprint in developed and developing countries indicates that developed countries have adopted an approach based on which renewable energy is used rather than non-renewable energy in the production process. While the use of non-renewable energy sources in developing countries, although leading to economic growth, has led to environmental degradation. Since increasing economic growth is one of the most important economic goals of countries, it is necessary for policymakers to take measures in terms of economic growth, which imposes the least damage to the environment and achieves the goals of sustainable development. In this regard, it is recommended that the developing countries, as well as the developed countries, use renewable and less polluting energy such as solar, wind, and hydropower instead of non-renewable energy.

Institutional economists have considered institutions and institution-based structures as the fundamental factors of the growth in new theories of economic growth. Accordingly, an increasing number of studies, besides analyzing the relevant institutions and structures, have investigated the relationship between these factors and economic growth. Risk management, as an institutional economics-based motivating structure, has a significant and special position. Accordingly, this research attempts to formulate an indicator to measure household risk management and investigate its impact on the economic growth of selected countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) for the period 2005-2017.

In this study, a dynamic panel data approach has been used to evaluate the role of household risk management in the economic growth of selected countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation during the period 2005-2017. In addition, the required information has been received from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Specifying research model To investigate the study’s hypotheses following equations were used: (1)In these equation GDPG, HRM, SE, POPG, INF, K and LP refer respectively to gross domestic product growth, household risk management, self-employment, population growth rate, inflation, gross capital formation and labor productivity.

The results of this study show that in selected Islamic countries and in the period 2005 to 2017, the effect of household risk management and self-employment on economic growth was positive and significant and the effect of population growth rate and inflation on economic growth was negative and significant. In fact, increasing household access to credit by investing in education and health; Improving social support through adaptation of labor supply and demand; Strengthening human capital by increasing productive power and ultimately improving the state capacity by improving household livelihoods as positive consequences of household risk management and increasing innovative activities as a positive consequence of self-employment will increase economic growth. . Meanwhile, increasing inflation by reducing the purchasing power and investment, and on the other hand, increasing the population growth rate due to limited resources and insufficient infrastructure, can reduce economic growth.

Based on the positive and significant effects of household risk management and self-employment and negative and significant effects of population growth rate and inflation on the economic growth of selected OIC member countries in the desired period, these policy recommendations can be suggested:

Attention to cultural and institutional foundations is one of the processes influencing economic growth and development. In many studies, the role of institutional and cultural factors in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth has been done separately. But, the present study is important because of the role of interaction between institutional and cultural factors in attracting foreign direct investment. So, the purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic growth and foreign direct investment by considering the role of institutional and cultural variables in the group of developing countries.

This study is an applied research according to the type and purpose of the research. The statistical sample includes 16 developing countries during the 1991-2020. Criteria for selecting countries is Homogeneity of some indicators, including; Economic growth, governing indicator, the level of democracy and freedom of trade, the level of development, as well as the availability of the information. Therefore, developing countries including Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, India, Indonesia, Iran, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkey, UAE and Venezuela were selected. In this study, while the effect of variables such as political and economic stability, rule of law and control of corruption and institutional, cultural and variables that can be individually effective in attracting foreign investment are examined also the interaction effects of foreign direct investment and institutional factors have been investigated. The generalized Method of Moment (GMM) approach has been used to investigate the model. This method is one of the appropriate econometric methods to solve or reduce the problem of endogenous variables and correlations between explanatory variables. In this study, two models of economic growth and foreign direct investment were analyzed. Factors affecting economic growth include capital, labor, foreign direct investment, energy consumption, exchange rate, human capital, governance index, degree of openness of the economy, cultural index, the interaction of cultural index and foreign direct investment as well as governance index And foreign direct investment. Factors affecting foreign direct investment also include human capital index, degree of economic openness, economic growth, exchange rate, governance index, cultural index, population, inflation rate and the interaction of cultural index and governance index.

According to the results, white test was used to investigate the heterogeneity of the coefficients. Based on the results of this test, the statistic F is equal to 1.69 with a probability level of 0.1452, which indicates the acceptance of the null hypothesis that there is no heterogeneity of variance. Also, based on the research results, cross-sectional independence of the data is accepted and Levin, Lin and Chou tests are used to examine the stationary of the variables. Based on the results of this test, all variables except the capital variable are stationary. The other variables remain stationary after one-time differentiation. In other words, the degree of accumulation is one and other variables are zero. According to the results of unit root test, in order to prevent false regression, Kao co-integration test has been performed in order to investigate the existence of long-term relationship between variables. Based on the results of which the existence of co-integration between variables is confirmed; therefore, it can be said that there is a long-run relationship between the dependent variable of each model and the independent variables. Finally, the results of estimation of the first model show that all research variables affect the economic growth at a significant level of 95%. Estimated coefficient for economic growth equal to 0.118, labor variable equal to 0.065, energy consumption equal to 0.030, human capital equal to 0.153, degree of economy openness equal to 0.084 and the cultural index equal to 0.147. The interaction of cultural index and FDI on economic growth is also positive and significant. The interaction between the governance index and FDI is 0.143. Based on the results, the Sargan test statistic indicates that the null hypothesis is not rejected and the defined instrumental variables are valid, therefore, the model does not need another instrumental variable. Also, the results of Arlano and Bond test to determine the order of autocorrelation show that the null hypothesis that there is no autocorrelation in the differentiated sentences in the second order of M2 has not been rejected. This finding is in line with Arlano and Bond(1991). They believe that in the GMM estimation, the perturbation sentences should have a first-order serial correlation of AR (1) and a second-order serial correlation of AR (2). In the second model, all research variables affect the rate of foreign direct investment attraction in developing countries. The estimated coefficient for all variables is positive and statistically significant. At the same time, the coefficient related to the exchange rate variable is equal to -0.065. Also, the estimated coefficient for the interaction variable of the index of institutional and cultural factors is equal to 0.238.

In developing countries, investors seem to be attracted to countries that are less linguistically and religiously diverse than in other countries, in other words, foreign direct investment is mainly regional, because the common religion and language and borders are important to foreign investors. On the other hand, foreign investors seem to be investing in countries with similar or better regulatory environments than their own, and preferring to invest in countries with less diverse communities than their own. Also, in justifying the obtained coefficient for the interaction of the index of institutional factors and foreign direct investment, it can be said that appropriate institutional factors attract more foreign direct investment and ultimately increase the economic growth of the studied countries. Also, the interaction coefficient of cultural index and foreign direct investment is equal to 0.013 at the level of 99%, i.e. the existence of countries with less cultural diversity and culture similar to their own country has attracted more foreign direct investment and are closely related to each other. The effect of these two causes the economic growth of the countries studied in this study.

Structural changes and economic and financial condition change the nature of economic models, and this shows the importance of using models that consider the dynamics of model parameters over time.In this paper, we use factor augmented vector autoregressive models with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility to construct a financial conditions index that can track expectations about financial conditions and economic trends. Time variation in the model’s parameters allows for the weights attached to each financial variable in the index to evolve over time. Furthermore, we develop methods for dynamic model averaging or selection that allow the financial variables entering into the FCI to change over time. The results show that the financial conditions in our country have been associated with many instabilities, which has periodically weakened the efficiency of the country's economy by creating imbalances in the financial system of the economy.

Failure to timely identify the occurrence of various shocks in the foreign exchange market due to the close relationship with the monetary, macroeconomic, and financial uncertainty can lead to crises and imbalances. In this paper, the effect of exchange rate and investor confidence on monetary and economic uncertainty in Iran is investigated, specifying a Multivariate GARCH model and the Granger-causality method over 2001-2018. The research findings have shown a significant positive correlation between exchange rate and macroeconomic uncertainty in the short run. But, there is no two-way Granger relationship between the real exchange rate, investor confidence in financial markets, and money growth uncertainty. Exchange rate uncertainty affects the real economy through a channel other than the capital market. Also, there is a significant effect of Investor confidence on monetary uncertainty in the short run. As a result, monetary uncertainty is affected by investor confidence uncertainty just through movements in money growth.

This paper aims to analyze the dynamic effect of non-renewable energy consumption (including fossil energy) and renewable energy (including clean energy) on the environment of selected developing countries for the period 2000-2017. The ecological footprint index was used to analyze the environmental effects. The variables of trade openness, economic growth and fertility rate were also considered as other variables affecting the ecological footprint. To analyze the dynamic effects of energy consumption on the ecological footprint, the Generalized Dynamic Method of Moments (GMM) panel method has been applied. The results show that the consumption of non-renewable and renewable energy had a positive and negative effect on the ecological footprint of selected developing countries, respectively. Accordingly, the consumption of non-renewable energy has led to further degradation of the environment, but the consumption of renewable energy has resulted in the improvement of the environment. On the other hand, the degree of trade openness had a negative effect, and economic growth and fertility rate had a positive effect on the ecological footprint.

Experience of countries with different institutional structures shows that they achieved different development goals. This phenomenon is doubly important in countries with natural resources, such as oil. There are differences in the theoretical and experimental results of the effects of the abundance of natural resources on the growth rate of a developing economy. While some oil-exporting countries have high economic growth, in others implementation of development policies has not only strengthened economic growth, but also further problems such as inadequate resource allocation, increased consumption, waste of resources, economic corruption, government budget imbalances occurred. oil revenues in high institutional quality countries controlled by the macroeconomic structure; however, in countries with low institutional quality, it destroys the macroeconomic structure, which occurs in the turmoil of important economic variables.This article seeks to investigate the two-way effect of economically significant variables and institutional variables on each other. In this regard, first, a macroeconomic model for a developing country that exports a product introduced, and then this model modified based on theoretical considerations and the main features of the Iranian economy. Given that, economic freedom is a good indicator for measuring the institutional quality of countries, it used as an alternative to institutional framework. The economic freedom index of the Fraser Institute implemented as an endogenous institutional variable in the model. 

This study is based on the analysis of time series data for the period of 1972-2020 in Iran. The fact that improving income in a country may improve institutions internalizes the institutional structure, leading to measurement error, inverse causality, and false correlation, and will distort the model estimation. In such a condition, appropriate econometric methods must be implemented to eliminate these problems. One of the suitable econometric methods to reduce the problem of endogenousity of institutional indicators and correlations between institutional variables and other explanatory variables is GMM (Generalize Method of Moments), which implemented in this article. The model has seven main equations for different economic sectors and sub-indexes of Economic freedom implemented in different equations based on the compatibility with that equation. 

Consumption function estimation shows that past consumption level has a large effect on current consumption, which confirms the effect of consumption function gears. The positive relationship between consumption and interest rates shows that an increase in interest rates, increases consumption, which is a result of the increasing inflation in the country. The institutional index of healthy (stable) money includes liquidity growth, freedom of ownership of foreign currencies, current inflation rate and inflation change in the last five years and has had a negative effect on consumption. in the investment equation, size of government, national income and interest rates had the greatest impact on investment, respectively. The negative exchange rate coefficient is due to the relationship between the exchange rate and investment, which can be attributed to the fact that in oil-rich countries such as Iran, the bulk of imported capital goods and rising exchange rates make capital goods more expensive and reduce investment. In the export function, foreign income has the greatest effect and a significant relationship between exports and relative prices confirmed. In this equation, the effect of the institutional variable is significant, which confirms the researcher's views. According to the results, low export price elasticity and high export revenue elasticity in Iran can be justified. Because Iran's main export is oil, which mostly influenced by the level of production and income of other countries, and due to the exogenous mechanism of determining international oil price, is not dependent on changes in the country's exchange rate.In the import equation, national income has the greatest effect, and the income elasticity of imports indicates the country's strong dependence on imported goods and the considerable volume of essential goods and services in the country's imports. The effect of oil revenue in the model is significant but its sign is contrary to expectations, as it shows that despite the decline in oil revenue, imports have increased. This evidence suggests that Iran has not been able to implement an import substitution strategy. The positive effect of the institutional variable on imports shows that with the improvement of the foreign trade freedom situation, the country's imports increase.In the production function, the institutional variable of property rights was not significant, but the institutional variable of laws and regulations had an effect on national production, which shows the direct effect of improving the status of laws and regulations and reducing bureaucracy on increasing production. The ratio of imports to capital accumulation has had a positive effect on the level of production, which confirms the results of estimating the import function based on the high share of essential goods in the country's imports.In the money demand function, an increase in national income has increased liquidity, which explains the larger monetary sector compared to the real sector. Increasing oil revenues also increase the volume of liquidity. The institutional variable of government expenditure is marked in agreement with the theory. Changes in the institutional variable of healthy (stable) money also increase the volume of liquidity. It is empheasized again that one of the components of the healthy money index is inflation in recent years, which has not been favorable in Iran and has increased liquidity. The designed institutional function is able to explain the institutional changes of the, and the sign of all coefficients agrees the expected sign. The increase in national income improves the country's institutions, while the increase in other variables such as government size, oil revenue, liquidity volume and inflation has destroyed the country's institutional situation, which government size and inflation have had the greatest impact on the institutional situation. 

Estimation of institutional function also shows that increasing national income has improved the country's institutions, while increasing other variables such as government size; oil revenue; liquidity and inflation have destroyed the country's institutional situation. Meanwhile improving the quality of institutions leads to an increase in national production and reduces the volume of liquidity.

The effect of uncertainty on monetary growth in recent years has attracted much attention. The mechanism of monetary transmission through the financial market affects consumption expenditures, investment, and the real sector of the economy. The stock market is an important component of financial markets affected by variables such as investor’s confidence, exchange rate, and money. Uncertainty relationships between variables are investigated by using quarterly data of the Iranian economy during 2001-2018 and the MGARCH-VECH-VAR approach. Increasing real exchange rate fluctuations will lead to increasing investor’s confidence uncertainty and financial market instability, followed by increased monetary growth uncertainty and the real sector of the economy. By increasing the confidence of investors, it is possible to reduce the monetary growth rate, as well as increase consumption through the wealth effect and increase the growth rate of production.

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is an international cooperation mechanism that provides developing countries to achieve economic growth by promoting investment in clean energy projects. This study investigates the effect of investments on renewable energy through clean development mechanism in a selection of developing countries using the method of differences in differences during the period 2001-2018. The purpose of this study is to compare the spread of renewable energy in countries that accepted the Clean Development Mechanism in comparison with others. The effect of implementing this mechanism in developing countries with poor financial markets compared to developing countries with advanced financial markets is also examined. The results show that the implementation of clean development mechanism in developing countries leads to the expansion of renewable energy. This mechanism can finance clean energy projects and transfer modern technologies to these countries. Also, according to the results, the effect of implementing the clean development mechanism in developing countries with poor financial markets is far more developed than advanced financial markets.

Improving the quality of the institutions by attracting investors, will improve growth, development and welfare. However, it is questionable how the improvement of institutional quality in the developing country, which relies on oil resource's revenue, such as Iran, impact on economic growth and welfare. Due to the intergenerational nature of revenues from natural resources, justice dictates that the exploitation of these resources be done in accordance with intergenerational rights. On the other hand, because oil prices are influenced by the other governments policy, oil-rich countries are looking for alternative incomes. One of the justified sources to replace natural resources is tax revenue. The purpose of this article is to analyze the effect of replacing oil revenue with tax revenue, on lifetime welfare in Iran, with an emphasis on the institutions' quality. So the threshold model of oil revenue’s effect on institutions, using the DOLS method over the period 1996:1-2017:1, Estimated. The results show that there is an inverse U-shaped relationship between the share of oil revenue from GDP with all institutions, and the direct relationship between the share of tax revenue from GDP with them. The effect of institutions on lifetime welfare was estimated using OLG Model and SURE method. Some of the institutions had positive, some had negative or no significant effect on lifetime welfare. Scenarios to replace oil with tax revenue show that if reduced oil revenues in the state budget were deposited with the National Development Fund and be replaced by higher wage taxes, lifetime welfare will increase