محمود صبوحی

Farmers are under increasing pressure to use fewer pesticides for production and pest control. Farmers and other producers are responding to consumer concerns about pesticides by creating new marketing opportunities for products grown with environmentally friendly practices. The purpose of this study is to estimate consumers' willingness to pay for each of the information provided in the "Protective Agriculture Label" and determine the factors affecting consumers' willingness to pay. The two conservation agriculture labels designed in this study are the "How to Cultivate" label and the "Environmental Damage" label. The cultivation method label provides information about the raw materials used to produce the product, while the environmental damage label provides information about the environmental harm caused during the production process. The purpose of this study is to estimate consumers' willingness to pay for each type of information provided on the conservation agriculture labels and to determine the factors affecting consumers' willingness to pay.

 In this study, in order to analyze consumers' preferences for protective agricultural products in Mashhad, the choice experiment method was used, and conditional logit models and logit with random parameters were used to estimate its parameters. Choice experiment is a common tool for valuing environmental functions and services. The required information was obtained by completing 170 questionnaires from the consumers of Mashhad city. The analysis of collected data is done using many models, most of which have a logit form. In this study, conditional logit and logit models with random parameters have been used to investigate the effect of the characteristics of agricultural product labels on consumers' willingness to pay and to estimate the amount of willingness to pay for each of the characteristics. 

In this article, consumer preferences for protective agricultural products have been analyzed using the choice test method. For data analysis, conditional logit and logit with random parameters model were used. The results obtained from this study have shown that the characteristic accuracy of the measurement method was the highest and the label-issuing organization had the lowest willingness to pay. The variables of gender, the presence of a child in the family, and the presence of people with a specific disease in the family had a positive and significant effect, and the variable of age had a negative and significant effect on the willingness of consumers to pay. In both labels, the sign of the price variable is negative, which is in accordance with the theory of economic utility. The comparison of the calculated final effect for two labels of environment and method of cultivation has shown that, in general, the probability of choosing the label of method of cultivation is higher than the probability of choosing the label of environmental-biological damages.  In 53% of the cases, the selected option was the label of how to cultivate, and in 15% of the cases, none of the labels were selected. The amount of willingness of consumers to pay to obtain information about the way of cultivation and damage to the environment is very low. Even consumers willing to pay to obtain detailed information on production (such as the degree of water pollution with which the product was irrigated, the level of soil pollution in which the product was grown, and the type of poisons used) and environmental damage (such as contamination of groundwater with The reason for product production is not air pollution due to product production and global warming (increasing temperature due to product production). In this regard, more research is suggested in the field of reasons for the low willingness to pay of consumers.

Examining the willingness to pay of consumers has shown that people are willing to pay more for the accuracy of the measurement method than for the label-issuing organization. The amount of consumers' willingness to pay for the characteristics of the organization issuing the label and the accuracy of the measurement method were obtained as 5 and 17.04 Tomans, respectively, so it can be concluded that Accuracy is more important than an organization for consumers.

 Titanium implants are widely used due to their mechanical properties in jawbones. Many studies have shown the success of dental implants in the treatment of edentulous and partially edentulous mandible and maxilla.

Methods and Materials:

 Three types of implant-abutment internal hexagonal connections with angles of 8, 11, and 16 degrees were designed for this study. All the samples had identical dimensions except the angle of connection. Ceno-Bonemodels were designed and built based on CBCT from mandible by CAD-CAM with dimensions of 20 mm height, 10 mm crowding, and 10 mm buccolingual. The implant-abutment set was placed within the designed block. All samples were put under occlusal vertical force 200N (load type1) and non-vertical force 200N with an angle of about15 buccolingual degrees (Load type2) and applied precisely to the center of the occlusal crown. Each model was analyzed according to the material characteristics used, and the obtained Von Miss Stress was recorded.

 Except for the implant and the connection angle of 8 degrees, in other cases, increasing the angle of applied force increased maximum stress values. By increasing the connection angle in axial force and angular force, the stress in the abutment, screw, and implant increased and decreased in the surrounding bone.

 Angled forces increase stress on the abutment, retaining screw and bone. The connection point angle of the implant-abutment increases stresses in the abutment, implant, and retaining screw and decreases stress in the surrounding bone.

In Bushehr province finishing and becoming salty of groundwaters in some fields like Dayer, Kangan, Jam, Assaluyeh make alarm as an active for water lack in other fields of Bushehr province. This study considers the objectives of achieving the maximum economic gross margin, the minimum underground water draft as well as the reduced greenhouse gas emissions, then, attempts to determine optimal cropping pattern for farmers in Jam County. The data for the study were obtained following the completion of questionnaires 60 farmers in Jam County in the years 2017 and 2018. In this regard, a Fuzzy Multi-Objective Linear Programming Model was applied. The results illustrated that in the homogeneous group of farmers with more than 3 hectares, growing of such crops as wheat, tomato, cucumber, onion was decreased, the production of barely, aubergine was increased, water intake from ground fields 35%, emission of greenhouse gases 25% was decreased. However, government may consider some facilities for other cost making farmer’s activities providing stability, sustainability for coinciding this type of patterns for farming of mentioned region.

 Given the growing global hunger in recent years, creating and increasing resilience among disadvantaged and impoverished communities, emphasized in the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, is a significant concern to most countries. The term resilience is generally considered as the capacity of a system to withstand various risks, and household resilience can be defined as the ability to return to the previous level of living conditions after a shock. Since one of the most critical shocks that farmers have faced in Iran is drought, the present study aimed to estimate the effect of drought on rural farmers’ household resilience in a selected village in Qalandar Abad district in Iran.

 The factor analysis method was used to estimate the components of the Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis (RIMA) of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the Mimic (Multiple indicators_ multiple causes) method was used to estimate the latent variable of resilience. RIMA, which considers resilience as a latent variable, includes four main components of Access to Basic Services (ABS), Assets (AST), Social Safety Nets (SSN), and Adaptive Capacity (AC). Also, according to the purpose of the study on estimating the resilience of rural households with the MIMIC method, at least two food security indicators at the household level, as multiple indicators of resilience, are required. The food security indices used in the calculations of this study include the Household Hunger Scale Index and the household Food Consumption Score. The samples included 149 farmers randomly selected from Hossein Abad Rekhneh Gol village, and data were collected through interviews with the household head. To reveal the effect of different shocks on the rural resilience households, self-reported information such as drought, livestock loss, and the characteristics of the households were used through an Ordinary Last Square regression.  

 In the first stage, each of the pillars of resilience, including Access to Basic Services, Assets, Social Safety Nets, and Adaptive Capacity, which are considered latent variables, shows a higher correlation between the variables, and the calculated pillars indicate the greater importance of that variable in each of the resilience components. According to the results, among the variables that constitute the pillar of access to basic services, "the distance from the household to the health center" variable correlates with this pillar, which indicates its high importance. In addition, the "attending school years" is one of the most important variables in forming and creating the adaptive capacity of a household to the crises ahead. The agricultural water availability and the total yield during a year play an important role in creating the asset pillar. Regarding creating the social safety nets pillar, as we expected, the governmental cash transfers, through monthly subsidies, the Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation, and the State Welfare Organization of Iran, is the most crucial variable. The results obtained from the food consumption (FCS) score index showed that 117 out of 149 studied households are within the acceptable threshold, 28 households are on the borderline, and four households are in a poor food consumption situation. The Hunger Scale Index showed that out of 149 households, 62 households are on the little to no hunger threshold, while 81 households are on the moderate hunger and six households are on the severe hunger threshold. Also, based on the results of the MIMIC model, among the calculated pillars, household assets is the most important. The increase of one standard deviation unit in AST will increase 0.06 standard deviation units in the resilience capacity index. Adaptive capacity and social safety nets pillars also play a significant role in creating resilience for rural households. Thus, increasing one standard deviation in the AC and SSN led to an increase in the magnitude of the resilience by 0.04 and 0.03 standard deviations, respectively. Finally, the effect of different shocks on the rural resilience households showed that variables such as drought, livestock loss, and gender of household head (being female) have a negative effect on their resilience. The size of the household has a positive impact, which means that the more family members, the more resilience.

 One of the critical goals of underdeveloped and developing countries, is to eradicate poverty and achieve sustainable development. In Iran, like other developing countries, smallholder farmers are known to be vulnerable to environmental and economic changes such as climate change, rising prices of agricultural inputs, etc. Therefore, adopting and implementing policies that lead to a fair income distribution for vulnerable people is essential. Estimating the RIMA makes it possible to rank households based on their strengths, weaknesses, and current needs. Budget allocation and the policy time duration are two limiting factors that may optimize using the RIMA results. The present study examined the RIMA and the effect of drought on the calculated index for the first time in Iran for a specific region. Since the ranking of households based on resilience requires awareness of all vulnerable households' situations, the definition of short-term and long-term projects in the future development plans is essential. To identify "the most vulnerable groups" and "the most important challenges and shocks," these scheduled projects are vital for budget allocation prioritization.

The research aim is to study the yield including irrigated and dry-farmed wheat, barley, and corn in the climate and sub-climates of the country. So, the average yield of the studied products, average rainfall, and average temperature data have been used for the climatic change from the period 1982-2015. Due to the fact that cereal products over 56% and 77% of the cultivated area in arid and semi-arid regions, respectively. Therefore, in this study, only cereal are studied and among all of the crops, they have been selected, the five crops that have the highest area under cultivation. Finally, the function of various crops’ demands was used to investigate the effects of climate change on crops.The results show that the highest yield coefficients of rainfall are to precipitation in cold and sub-climates semi-arid cold, semi-arid hot, semi-arid temperate, cold dry, hot dry and temperate dry are related to dryland wheat, irrigated wheat, dryland wheat, dryland barley, dryland barley, dryland wheat, respectively. In addition, the highest coefficients of function of demands to temperature in cold and sub-climates of semi-arid cold, semi-arid warm, semi-arid temperate, cold dry, hot dry and temperate dry are related to dryland wheat, dryland barley, irrigated wheat and dryland barley, dryland wheat, respectively. According to the results of the research and in order to efficiently manage production and better performance, agricultural products in climates and sub-climates in the country are recommended. Compilation of a comprehensive cultivation model and allocation of the type of crop cultivation in the climate and sub-climate should be done by considering the reaction rate of the yield of the products and the exploitation of most of the mentioned products.

Innovation is one of the factors that drive economic growth and production by improving labor productivity, dynamics in industries, and determining economic success. Science and Technological Parks play an important role in the technological development of a country by significantly increasing economic growth. So, knowledge-based companies are known as one of the main factors for accelerating production and achieving economic resilience goals.

In this study, knowledge-based and agricultural companies located in the Center for Agricultural Technology Development, Natural Resources and Food Industries and Technology Development Center of Gonabad, Neishabour, and Torbat-e Heydarieh have been studied. The method of data collection in this research was by census method and through a questionnaire. The required data of 5 companies were collected via email, 3 companies were collected via telegram, and 39 questionnaires were completed through face-to-face distribution. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistical analysis. The software used in this study was Excel and Stata.

Based on the obtained results, factors such as financial support and business advice were the most important requirements for knowledge-based companies. Also, the most important weaknesses in institutional sectors were lack of financial resources in the financial sector, inability to introduce the product and international marketing in the marketing sector, and lack of proper and timely execution of upstream documents were among the weaknesses in the institutional sector. In contrast, personal capital and product innovation were among the strengths of knowledge-based companies and agricultural technology. Furthermore, the most important threats for these companies were price fluctuations, uncertainty due to foreign currency policies, low level or nonawareness of legal regulations, and long-term process to obtain official permissions. Also, the exclusivity of the product was declared the most important opportunity for companies. The priority of these companies was related to future strategies, export, and focus on foreign markets and attracting investors.

Finally, it is suggested that due to the low efficiency of knowledge-based companies in terms of job creation, the following should be on the agenda: effective entry of universities in the field of entrepreneurship and innovation, drafting an innovation system document, and directing research activities towards knowledge foundations in universities. Also, to increase the employment of agricultural graduates, it is suggested that arrangements be made so that the employment of these people in knowledge-based companies will lead to the establishment of facilities such as providing free insurance coverage for these companies. Knowledge-based companies and agricultural technology need a management-consulting package in the field of marketing and marketing of products, legal and financial products in order to have a stronger presence in the existing space in domestic markets and in the international market.

Changes in the global climate have become one of the most crucial challenges facing agriculture in the twenty-first century. Climatic change is mainly characterized by a rise in greenhouse gas emissions and global average temperature as well as changes in precipitation levels and patterns. Undoubtedly, these changes affect the growth and productivity of agricultural production, and thus food security in many parts of the world like Iran. At present, supplying sufficient food and meeting food security in Iran relies on the management of climatic variables that affect agricultural production. Therefore, it is necessary to study the effects of climate change on agricultural production and food security in arid and semi-arid regions of this country such as the Khorasan region. Given the importance of this issue, the objective of the current study is to investigate climate change and its impacts on the yield and yield risk of selected crops, as well as on food security in the Khorasan region.

The daily observed data for maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation is provided from the Meteorological Organization of Iran for 1961–2010. The daily reanalysis data for the period (1961–2005) are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The large-scale daily predictors for the CanESM2 model were developed by the CCCma for selected station. These data are used to predict climate parameters under three climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for 2030. This study used SDSM to downscale GCM-CanESM2 outputs. SDSM model, one of the most widely used models in the world, is applied to downscale future climate projections using the 26 predictors derived from a large-scale climate model. In the current study, a production function technique developed by Just and Pope is applied to investigate the effects of climate variables on the mean and variance of crop yields. This technique consists of two parts: the first component is relating to the yield levels and the second part is related to the yield variance.

The results showed that maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation have a significant impact on the yield of the studied crops, so these factors will lead to a decrease in the production of irrigated wheat, irrigated barley, and dryland barley in 2030 compared to the base year. Findings indicate that per capita availability of wheat will decrease from 148.22 to 104.44, 107.51,109.83 and for barley will decrease from 74.28 to 47.94, 54.19, 62.79, and for potato will change from 26.44 to 25.37, 25.53, and 27.24 (kg per person) under climate scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In addition, the results show that climate change in 2030 will reduce the production of irrigated wheat, barley, and rain-fed barley, while these changes will improve the production of potatoes and rain-fed wheat. Furthermore, the findings of the study reveal that the improvement of technology will be able to reduce the negative effects of climate change on the production of vulnerable products. Also, due to population growth in this region as well as climate change, the per capita availability of crops in 2030 will decrease, which will increase the dependence of this region on other regions of the country and imports to meet food needs.

Alfalfa is the most important forage crop in Iran, which is cultivated in almost all provinces of the country. Considering the economic importance of alfalfa and its sensitivity to drought stress and its special physiological characteristics in drought resistance, this study investigates the risk of drought in different regions on the one hand and the relationship between alfalfa production and drought-determining parameters on the other hand. For this purpose, first the probability of drought in different regions of Iran was calculated based on RDI index, which showed that the probability of drought in some eastern regions of the country is higher than other regions. Then, by estimating the climatic response function of alfalfa yield based on the time series data of 1992-2016 and using the spatial panel method, the effects of precipitation and temperature changes as the two main effective drought reversals on alfalfa yield were investigated. Based on the results of this study and taking into account climate forecasts and the status of available water resources in the future, the development of alfalfa cultivation in the northwestern and western regions of the country and limiting the cultivation of this crop in the eastern regions, will have positive economic effects. Also, using the physiological characteristics of alfalfa in dormancy with temporary cessation of irrigation and allocation of water to alfalfa rotation can be used as a strategy in managing water consumption in drought stress conditions.

One of the main activities of banks is the allocation of resources, one of the main aspects of which is determining the optimal combination of credits to various economic sectors. Lack of attention to the allocation of financial resources available to the bank, can cause serious damage to the entire economic system. In this study with the purpose of determining the optimal portfolio of the bank, each of the different activities of the creditor was considered as an asset. Given that the fluctuations in the ratio of lending credits collection are the main source of expected bank earnings fluctuations, so the amount of lending credits of each economic activity, which need to be collected are considered as return standard of, and its variance is consider as a risk. Also, in order to determine the range of expected return on assets, the historical average on each asset is calculated. Considering the necessity of reviewing this issue, in this paper, a multi-objective non-linear programming model using the firefly algorithm has been used to determine the optimal portfolio of agricultural bank credits. The main features of this research are the consideration of three optimistic pessimistic and hybrid strategies under different economic conditions. The results showed that the optimal pattern obtained from the firefly algorithm differs from the current model of distribution of bank credits.The present findings can provide managers with a roadmap for choosing the optimal portfolio consistent with the bank's preferences according to different estimates of return and risk, thus leading to the proper management of loans

Climate change is today's problem and tomorrow's crisis. In this study, the effect of climate change on selected products and land usage was investigated in four regions in Mazandaran province.

Firstly, time series variables of temperature and rainfall were examined during 1981-2012. Also we study the effect of annual mean temperature and rainfall, as the proxies of climate change, on the performance of under-cultivation wheat, barley and rice farms by using regression analysis from 1981 to2012. In the next step, the scenario effect of increasing 1-degree temperature and deceasing 1-mm precipitation on land usage and performance of agricultural crops were analyzed using regression analysis and considering them in Positive Math Programming model (PMP).

The results of regression analysis showed that there was a noticeable temperature increase and rainfall decrease. In addition, they showed that climate change has a significant effect on wheat, barley and rice performance.

The results of PMP model analysis showed a change in land use to increase rice and barley cultivation. The findings show that the climate change effect is not necessarily negative on all crops, so we can pay attention to the positive effects as well and utilize them in optimum exploitation of resources and the region's facilities.

Understanding the temporal and spatial fluctuations of climatic parameters (such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, etc.) and its impact on agricultural sector is essential for managing agricultural resources and adopting appropriate strategies. Precipitation directly affects the production of dry crops by supplying the required moisture for the plant, and indirectly affects the production of aquatic crops through supplying surface and underground water resources. Climate change has an effect on temperature and precipitation distribution and consequently affects the plants water requirement and agricultural water consumption. Overall, climate change is influenced by both temperature and precipitation. Due to the changing rainfall pattern and average temperature of the atmosphere, this phenomenon can damage the production of agricultural products that maintain the major food sources of the country. Given the important role of agriculture in the country's economy and the existence of the ongoing water crisis and drought in the country, climate change can have major impacts on their aggravation. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the effects of climate change and water scarcity on agricultural production, price and income in Iran.

The multi-market model, sometimes referred to as the "finite general equilibrium" or "multi-market partial equilibrium model", has reduced the complexities of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The AMM template was used for this purpose. To simulate the effects of climate change, crop yields were calculated using yield response coefficients. Then, the demand function of different products was calculated using estimated elasticities and finally climate change has been simulated for 2025.

The results showed that climate change would increase, yield of rainfed wheat, blue barley, dry barley and maize grain in semi-arid climate and subtropical climate, in addition dry barley and barley products in warm semi-arid climate and subtropical climate, and finally rainfed barley and corn products Grain in temperate semi-arid climates and subtropicals climate by 2025 relative to current levels. Climate change also would decrease yields of dry wheat and barley in temperate semi-arid climates and subtropicals, and also wheat in warm and semi-arid climates and subtropicals for 2025 compared to the present value. The results also showed that climate change would expand the water available for the blue wheat crop in the semi-arid climate and sub-climates, besides the blue barley crop in the semi-arid, semi-arid, and temperate semi-arid climates for 2025 compared to the present value. Climate change also might reduce the amount of water available for the blue wheat crop in the climate and sub-arid and semi-arid sub-climates, therefor the corn yield in the cold and semi-arid sub-climates and sub-climates for 2025 compared to the present value. The results also revealed that climate change would diminish cultivation of maize crop in semi-arid climate and temperate climates in addition irrigated and rainfed wheat crop in warm and semi-arid sub-climate and also rainfed wheat crop in semi-arid climate by 2025 relative to the present situation. Also the area under cultivation of blue barley and dry barley crops in warm and semi-arid climates, cold and semi-arid climates, and blue wheat crop in semi-arid climates and rainfed wheat crop in temperate and semi-arid climates would decrease by 2025.

The results also demonstrated that with the climate change, the amount of maize crop production in cold and semi-arid climates and sub-climates, and the production of blue and dry wheat crops in warm and semi-arid climates, cold semi-arid, temperate and dry semi-arid climates for 20 years would decrease relative to current value. Also, the production of irrigated and rainfed barley in warm and semi-arid climates, sub-climates and temperate semi-arid climates for 2025 would increase compared to the present situation. Thus the first hypothesis of the study: "Climate change and water scarcity reduces agricultural production" is not approved in Iran. The results also explained that with the climate change the prices of wheat, barley and maize crops in the semi-arid and temperate climates for the year 2025 would also rise, so the second hypothesis of the study "Climate change and scarcity of water resources will increase the prices of agricultural products in Iran” is confirmed. The results also show that with climate change, farmers 'incomes in cold and semi-arid climates, temperate and warm semi-arid climates would increase by 2025 relative to their present value, so the third research hypothesis that "climate change and water scarcity reduces farmers' income" In Iran, " is not confirmed. The results also indicated that wheat, barley and maize exports remained negative by the creation of net climate change for 2025 and that the country's climate change created an importer of these products.

In order to compare the effect of the policy of reducing water extraction from groundwater resources with the policy of increasing irrigation efficiency, on the deficit of groundwater reservoirs, production, net imports, net social benefits and farmers' income in Khorasan Razavi province, five cities including Mashhad, Sabzevar, Neyshabur, Torbat-e Jam and Torbat-e Heydarieh were selected and the effects of these policies were studied using a positive mathematical programming model (PMP_GME).The study of the effect of reducing water extraction showed that although this policy can balance the water extraction and reduce energy consumption by up to 25%, it reduces the production of important crops such as wheat and increases social costs, in particular, reducing farm incomes and increasing imports. So that it will increase social costs by 20-43 percent, and the cost of each cubic meter of saved water will be between 4540 and 6360 Rials. Replacing new systems instead of old at the potential level without increasing the area under cultivation, will reduce the tank's deficit by 94%. Although the closure of unauthorized wells is a legal requirement, its implementation cannot create balance in the water extraction. In order to achieve the desired result, it is necessary to close the unauthorized wells and reduce water extraction permanently from the wells that have a butterfly. Also by providing bank loans and advisory services, farmers helped to increase irrigation efficiency.

In this study, the impact of different food groups’ consumption, social and economic indicator on the share of food in household expenditure in the rural and urban area of Iran investigated. For this purpose, panel quantile regression considered as the best technique. The results indicated that the impact of social and economic indicators and food groups’ consumption varies in different quantiles. Moreover, between social and economic variables, income, food price index and literacy rate considered as the most effective determinants of food expenditure in rural and urban areas. Furthermore, consumption of cereal and dairy in a rural area and cereal and vegetables in an urban area do not affect the household’s food expenditure; on the other hand, increase in consumption of meat and crop oils in rural and urban area upsurge the share of food in the household expenditure. Based on the results, the implication of policies, which lead to household income improvement and stabilized the food price can improve food availability in both rural and urban areas. Besides, the introduction of the innovative and stable method of dairy and vegetable production in a rural area and encouraging the urban household to consume more vegetables results in more diverse diet and enhance the food security and simultaneously don’t increase the share of food in household expenditure.

Sustainable development is now considered in many developing countries as the main economic approach for reducing poverty and improving living standards and enhancing environmental protection. Therefore, the use of appropriate tools to achieve the goals of sustainable development in rural areas has been very important. In this regard, the microcredits has been proposed as an effective tool in sustainable rural development. So the purpose of this study is to answer the question of what will be the impact of microcredit on the economic, social and environmental sustainability of rural households? In order to answer this question, 309 questionnaires were completed from the households of the villages of Torbat-e-Jameh County and the combination of propensity score matching regression approach and bootstrap algorithm was used. The results showed that the microcredit has a positive effect on economic and social indices, however, its impact on the environmental index is negative. In order to increase the validity of results the confidence interval was estimated. Furthermore, the Rosenbaum sensitivity analysis revealed that the sensitivity of the results of economic and social indices, even with a fourfold increase in gamma, is still significant. Also, the probability of a difference in the treatment group due to unobserved factors (or gamma) should be increased to 3.2 to change the effect of microcredit on the environmental index. Given the importance of microcredit at the rural communities due to the process of economic and social development, and also, its impact on the reducing of negative effects on the living environment, it is recommended that the government should support microfinance institutions and provide a legal and environmentally friendly framework to expand microcredits.

Climate change, population growth and non-optimal utilization of water resources are doubling the need to pay attention to the conservation and sustainability of this essential input in agricultural production. Therefore, the use of water demand management can be used as a method for more principled use of water resources. In this study, the economic model and system dynamics method (SD) were used to study the demand management policy for the balance of groundwater resources in the Neyshabour basin area. The policies under consideration include allocating water to the agricultural sector and increasing irrigation efficiency. The results showed that the policy of reducing irrigation water's share has a positive effect on the groundwater level without having a significant effect on reducing crop cultivation and, consequently, reducing the agricultural productivity of farmers in the region. Also, increasing the irrigation efficiency in relation to the policy of reducing agricultural water allocation showed the better condition in groundwater level and the profitability of crop farmers. So that the maximum amount of change in agricultural gross profit of the region decreased by 10% and the minimum improvement in groundwater level of the basin was 47.0 meters. In order to investigate the future status of water resources in the Neyshabour basin was studied the policy of reducing water share in simulation of basin ground water resources. The results showed that up to 20 percent reduction in agricultural water, the groundwater level will rise by about 7.4 meters to 1403, and will be closer to balance. The analysis of the results suggests that implementation of the policy of increasing irrigation efficiency along with decreasing agricultural water's share will have a more effect on the balance of the basin.

In order to study the effect of various groundwater resource management policies on sugar beet cultivation area in Khorasan Razavi province, a positive mathematical programming model was used. The studied areas included Mashhad, Neyshabur, Sabzevar, Torbat-Jam and Torbat-e-Heidariyeh. Required information was obtained by completing the questionnaires as well as information banks and publications of Jihad-e-Agriculture Organization and Khorasan Razavi Districts Organization. The studied scenarios included increasing the price of water, reducing the discharge of water from wells, and increasing irrigation efficiency in the form of improving irrigation management, as well as developing new irrigation systems which were studied in the form of several sub-scenarios. Results showed that the policy of increasing the price of water not only leads to sharp decrease in the area under sugar beet cultivation but also reduces the farmers’ income. However, the policy of less water withdrawal from agricultural wells showed less reduction. The policy of increasing irrigation efficiency along with controlling the area under cultivation, in addition to preserving groundwater, increased the sugar beet cultivation area and farmers’ income.

In recent decades Climate and its changes have become one of the world major issues and as one of the major environmental problems. Agricultural sector is one of the first areas affected by these changes because farmers are not able to control climatic conditions; however, management and change in factors such as crop cultivar and optimization of the cultivation pattern according to area climate can reduce the adverse effects on growth and yield of agricultural products and play a significant role in the sustainable production of foods. Therefore, in this research, the effects of climate change on cropping pattern in Mashhad have been investigated. The statistics and data needed for the research were collected through Mashhad Agriculture Jihad Organization, meteorology Organization, as well as in-person interviews with agriculture specialists and farmers in Mashhad. The results of this study show that rainfall level, maximum and minimum seasonal temperatures have increasing trend and these changes have a significant effect on the yield of crops in the region. Also, considering the climate change scenarios (to 2031) during the planting period of each studied product, their crop area values have been changed and farmers' gross margin increased by 1.6 percent compared to the base year (2014). Finally, the results of this study indicate that the greatest changes in yield due to climatic conditions are related to wheat and barley; therefore, it is necessary for policy makers to pay attention to this issue in order to reduce the risk of these products production and prevent from reduced production of these strategic crops.

In the present study, the water balance of Nishapur catchment calculated using renewable and index {consumption ratio to renewable water} in three years of normal water , wet and dry samples were examined.Therefore, the optimal cropping patterns based on renewable water levels in the region with the aim of providing maximum benefit to farmers was determined based on the results of the irrigated area of about 43,000 hectares of land are illegal. Also, the results of the sensitivity analysis model of mathematical programming that two water status of renewable (drought and famine ) shadow price of water in the spring between the values (804.7 to 1607), summer (200 to 3050) and autumn and winter between ( 0 to 430 ) Rls. Estimates of the demand function and measure the response of farmers to changes in water prices showed that with change of water prices, Motivation to cropping patterns change, Reallocation and More water-efficient crops and water saving in agriculture occur

  Agriculture is one of the most important effective sections toward the environment. One of the agricultural activities impact on the environment can be issues such as nitrate leaching to groundwater and surface resources, soil salinization, acidification and greenhouse gas emissions. Planting rice is an activity that causes a significant amount of pollution. Rice can be counted as an essential grain all over the world. In Iran, rice is the second most important crop after wheat, which is part of the main items of household consumption basket. Per capita consumption of rice in the country is 100 grams per day and Iran is ranked 13th in the world rice consumption. As the farmers are unaware and mostly ignorant of the fact, they use an inordinate amount of primary inputs like chemical fertilizers that are detrimental to the environment. Noticing the importance and strategic role of this product, hereby this study investigated the environmental effects of rough rice of different kinds (Tarim hashemi, Tarom sangi, Neda, Fajr and Shirudi) by evaluating the cycle of life. The area in this study is located in Kordkuy, Golestan. The sampling is done by random interviews with the farmers. LCA method was used according to the extent of natural factors in order to analyze the defective consequences due to use of the resources. By identifying the utilized elements, energy, material in the production procedure, the effects and defects can be estimated. Using this method, one can evaluate the potential effects on global warming, acidity, Terrestrial Eutrophication Potential, photochemical oxidation, and the toxicity effect on human (caused by Cadmium in phosphate), Terrestrial Eco toxicity potential, Aquatic Eco toxicity, fresh water potential, Fossil fuel consumption, Phosphate consumption, Potash consumption, and Water Consume. Chemical fertilizers (like urea, potassium, phosphate), fossil fuels, water and electricity are the causes of the pollution on the farms in this study. Using these inputs creates contaminants that can be categorized as nitrogen (N), carbon (C), sulphur (S), and phosphorus (P). Among all the inputs Nitrogen fertilizers is the most important factor to spread the mission of air pollutants. The estimated environmental effects in planting rice show that photochemical oxidation potential has the highest effect on producing rice. Moreover, depletion of phosphate and water resources are the other important effects as the result of planting rice. On average three effective factors like photochemical oxidation potential, depletion of phosphate and water resources are evaluated as 2.033, 1.296, and 0.896, respectively. And some other environmental effects like acidity, Terrestrial Eutrophication Potential, toxicity of water have the least destructive effects on average. Among all the other figures, Tarim hashemi and Tarom sangi figures have the highest range of creating pollution estimated as 1 ton rough rice per hectare and the least is determined to be a figure related to Neda variate. The final indicator shows the range of this variation from 0.0080 to 2.975. The most photochemical oxidation potential is attributed to Tarim hashemi and the least toxicity effect on water is recognized by the figures in Shirudi. In all the investigated effects in this study, the long-grain rice figures (Tarim hashemi, Tarom sangi) were shown to have more detrimental effects compared to productive igures (Neda, Fajr and Shirudi) since it has less output. The results of the study show that the figures with the highest output in production ,(Neda, Fajr and Shirudi) although has used more of the inputs , could spread less pollution in the estimate of 1 ton rough rice per hectare. By planting varieties that produce higher yields the amount of pollution reduced, can be reduced. Also, in order to reduce the amount of pollution, controlling the inputs can decrease the amount of pollution. The biggest pollutants such as nitrogen fertilizers that can be replaced by fertilizers such as stabilizers Nitrogen plants. This solution may reduce the emissions of pollutants from nitrogen fertilizers on the farm

Volatility and oil shocks in the oil producing countries could be impacting the price index of the Stock Exchange. This study aimed to investigate the effects of recent oil shocks on the price index of the Stock Exchange. For this goal, two short and long-term regimes created and MV-GARCH model and, BEKK solution used for the daily data from 21 March 2001 to 22 December 2014. The results showed that in the short and long run, the oil shocks have negative effects on the Stock Exchange. In addition, the impact of oil price volatility on the Stock Exchange is negative in the long-run. Due to the fact that in the short run oil price volatility has a positive effect on the oil price index, this effect has led to fluctuations in the stock index. With this in mind a policy should be taken to prevent the transfer the fluctuation of the price of oil to the index. In this way, we can use stock insurance, stock coupons, risk buying and selling, inventing new markets, changing stock portfolios and encouraging people to invest in the stock market.

Raisin is one of the crops which has a considerable share of yearly export. The main purpose of current study was to determine the most appropriate target market for the export of Iranian Raisin. In this regard, based on previous studies, a hierarchical structure designed with three criteria and, six sub-criteria for four target countries, UAE, Ukraine, Iraq and, Russia. The results showed that the market access criterion with a low weight of 0.5% is the most important in comparison to the cost and market size. In addition, Iraq with the final weight of 0.27 is in the first priority and the UAE, Ukraine and Russia were placed in the next priority respectively.

Poultry is now one of the largest industry in Khorasan Razavi province and chicken meat has an important role in household food needs. Developing appropriate studies that lead to strategies for handling poultry products to fulfil consumers’ demand have become quite a challenging issue especially due to crisis situation. Supply chain system in this paper means a chain of processes from the rearing farm to the final consumer of the finished product and provide useful operational analysis of system behaviors for managing supply chain under demand uncertainties and production disruptions.
In this paper, a system dynamics model is applied for studying the behavior of the chicken meat supply chain threatened by bird flu, demand fluctuation and Government (State Livestock Affairs Logistics) intervention under the Vensim environment. The model is an extended version of real-life practice which involves producers, consumers and government. A causal loop diagram used to show how interrelated variables affect one another and connect together. This important diagram can handle assumptions regarding facing various calamities and disaster which is an integral part of the poultry industry. This dynamic model development can track possible disasters in time to prepare facing them. To cover more possibility, we propose three scenarios of different levels for demand and present of loss bird. To find out the most efficient rearing rate in crisis situation, demand fluctuation and loss bird rate are considered simultaneously in scenarios. Importance of chicken meat strategic reserve for Norouz lead us to impose a constraint for government purchasing and expenditure during the last month of simulation. Operations during a 120 days are simulated and a what-if analysis performed to study the model stability under uncertainty environment.
As a starting position no bird losses rate and demand problems included and supply chain fills all of demands without purchase chicken meat from external markets. The equilibrium was reached when the available live chicken level equals to 382 (ton/day). Results showed that without changing demand levels for achieving supply chain stability, the system need to import chicken meat for entire of the crisis period and government intervenes in market to ensure remunerative prices for producers and affordable prices for consumers. In sanitary crisis situation, decreasing demand can reduce the external purchases and unexpected costs but it decreases net income of producers simultaneously. In all scenarios external purchases and unexpected government purchasing are zero when the demand decreasing level is maximum. The simulation results showed that 10 percent of domestic farms affecting by Bird flu can increase the amount of external purchases up to 40 (ton/day) and give rise to unexpected government expenditures by 3360 (million Rial). It is evident from the model that slaughtering all reared chicken (available live chickens) after exactly 42 days can give number of benefits to the industry and profit is maximize in the simulated behavior for this scenario test. Reduction of rearing time can increase the amount of available chicken meat and net income of producer by 18 percent. In contrast, an increase of 15 days in rearing time can considerably reduce net income of producer by 30 percent. This means that a reduction of rearing time (standardization of poultry size and weight) can be a solution to improve poultry industry in Khorasan Razavi province. Income of producer is sensitive to the crisis and it is reduced up to 27 percent at peak of bird loss rate. Poultry producers are suffering from economic loss due to management, bird disease and transportation stress. These factors not only affects the quantity but also decrease the quality of chicken meat. On the other hand, 5 percent decrease in slaughterhouse and transportation mortalities immediately leads to an increase in supply chain incomes and the level of chicken meat inventory. According to the result, with management of chicken transportation, slaughter and rearing time, even in the worst scenario when the loss bird rate was maximum, it is possible to fulfil demand with domestic production capacity.
The supply chain is affected by endogenous and exogenous factors such as government intervention. Therefore an establishment of an integrated system between rearing farms, transport system, slaughterhouse and government purchasing can be helpful especially in crisis period. Poultry industry can integrate complete supply chain network so decision-makers can assist calculating the economic returns and reduce the risk. Moreover, producers will be able to compete with the other provinces and global markets as well as reducing their operational costs. Future research can focus on the different variables and study poultry wastes of processing by-products on the poultry industry in Khorasan Razavi province.

Dentists and all related oral hygiene occupations are endanger of cross contamination because of close contacts with patients. Dental laboratories are one of those which have a direct contact with dentist and cross infection control plays an important role to prevent exposure to pathogens. According to the fact that many dental laboratories are not well informed about cross infection control; the aim of this study is to prepare a questionnaire for evaluating both dentists and dental laboratories knowledge about cross control infections.
250 dentist and 50 dental laboratories were randomly chosen and prepared questionnaire distributed. The collected data were analyzed by SPSS software and Chi-Square test.
There was no significant differences between general and post graduated dentist in using gloves, masks and protective eye glasses (p value > 0.05).the results showed no significant differences in uses of protective eye glasses between dentist who worked in clinics and private offices (p value = 0.384), but there was significant differences in using gloves (p value = 0.02).condensation silicones (90.5%) and alginates (90%) were the most impression materials and 88% of dentist rinsed the impressions always while 0.8% never did that.
The cross control infection is not sufficient among dental laboratories and clinics and it is need to pay more attention.

Polycarboxylate cement is one of the most commonly used cements in prosthodontics and in pediatric and restorative dentistry. However, the compressive strength and film thickness of polycarboxylate cement need to be investigated.
In this in vitro study, 20 samples (10 samples from each cement) were used to test the film thickness and compressive strength of cements. Five samples from each cement were used to test the film thickness and 5 samples were used to test the compressive strength based on 1-12252A standard of Iran (ISO 9917-1: 2007). Data were analyzed with ANOVA (α = 0.05).
The mean film thickness of Harvard and Ariadent cements were 26 ± 0.58 and 77.2 ± 4.36 µm, respectively. The mean compressive strengths of Harvard and Ariadent cements were 67.68 ± 11.82 and 63.46 ± 5.42 MPa, respectively.
According to the criteria set by the 12252-1 standard, Harvard and Ariadent cements exhibited film thickness higher than the standard, which was unacceptable. However, both cements exhibited acceptable compressive strengths based on the standard.