seyed mojtaba mojaverian

As one of the most important sectors providing long-term financial resources, the insurance industry can play a significant role in the development of the business environment due to its risk distribution role. The design of agricultural price insurance contracts is a critical issue since the Iranian agriculture sector is unable to employ ordinary insurance policies to cover price risk. Accepting price insurance, a recent option from insurance companies can help businesses mitigate price risk and foster the expansion of the insurance industry. Examining the essential elements of price insurance from the insurer's perspective is the aim of this study. Experts from insurance companies filled out 45 questionnaires for this purpose in February 2024, and the results were analyzed using the Conjoint Analysis approach. The variable of the existence of a franchise has the highest relative value, according to the results of the analysis of the relative importance of features. The combination (existence of a moral hazard, the existence of a franchise, the absence of the ability to estimate insurance premiums, and the existence of price update ability) is the first popular card, per the results of the utility analysis of each card. The last popular card from the respondents’ view was the combination (existence of moral hazard, absence of franchise, existence of ability to estimate insurance premium, and absence of ability to update pricing. The franchise, moral hazard, ability to estimate premium, and ability to update price are the four primary features that the respondents rate in terms of priority.

The purpose of this study is to determine the role of location along with other influencing factors on the status of agricultural processing industries in Mazandaran. Data were collected from 230 managers of agricultural industries via completing questionnaires in 2017-2018. The cluster sampling method was done with the assignment technique. The validity of the research tool was confirmed by experts and its reliability by calculating Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.71). The studied units are divided into three groups based on the level of utilization of potential capacity: weak, medium and complete, and two-level ordinal logit model has been used to determine the influencing factors. Stata 14 software was used. The findings showed that the contribution of the location variable in the changes in the utilization levels is 10.45%. According to the changes in the share of location, it can be concluded that the individual characteristics explain 61-87% of the changes in the utilization of the potential capacity of the unit. Life of unit, manager education, size of the unit, how to supply the raw materials and initial capital were negative effect on the level of utilization of potential capacity. The results of this research showed that focusing on the internal characteristics of units leads to the achievement of greater efficiency in the transformation and supplementary agricultural industries of Mazandaran province, hence suggestions such as holding training courses, providing facilities, supporting small conversion industries, priority Licensing clause based on type of ownership and type of activity was presented.

The packaging of a product is a combination of various elements, each of them can be effective in the buying behavior of consumers. One of the important elements of the packaging is the information elements included on the packaging. In this research, the effect of four types of packaging information, including mandatory information, marketing information, nutritional information, and environmental information, on the preferences of consumers of dairy products, was investigated in the city of Noor, Mazandaran province in 2021.

This research is practical in terms of its purpose, and descriptive-correlation survey in terms of the way of conducting the research. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire that was distributed among 384 customers of food stores in the city of Noor by available sampling method. The reliability of the questionnaire was confirmed through three measures of factor loadings, Cronbach's alpha and composite reliability, and its validity was confirmed through convergent validity and divergent validity. Structural equation method was used in this research.

The model estimation results showed that the research model had moderate predictive power, so that the independent variables together could explain 37.7% of consumer behavior changes. In this regard, legal information with a path coefficient of 0.55, environmental information with a path coefficient of 0.33, and marketing information with a path coefficient of 0.275 respectively have had the most positive and significant impact on consumer purchasing behavior. The path coefficient calculation of 0.097 did not show a significant relationship between nutritional information and the buying behavior of customers.

The findings of the research showed that the types of packaging information are effective on the behavior and preferences of consumers; also, marketing information has a positive and significant effect on consumer buying behavior. It is suggested that in order to attract more attention of consumers, the information related to the storage conditions of the products should be made available clearly and completely.

Given that entrepreneurship is considered a tool for economic growth and innovation in all countries and is essential for the well-being of society, it is necessary to identify the factors affecting it and try to improve the current situation. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between the variables of blockchain recognition, investment in blockchain, and governance indicators with the Fear of Failure Rate of entrepreneurial failure. For this purpose, the panel data method was used. The data used are from China, India, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, United Arab Emirates, Thailand, and Turkey during the years 2020-2010. According to the results, there is a significant relationship between including Voice and Accountability, Political Stability, Regulatory Quality, Control of Corruption, and Rule of Law, as well as two variables of recognition and investment in blockchain with the Fear of Failure Rate. Based on this, it can be stated that the sample countries can take steps to improve the entrepreneurial situation by developing the necessary conditions for the use of blockchain technology.

Measurement of Technical Efficiency (TE) provides useful information on the competitiveness of Rangeland Unit (RU) and potential to improve productivity, with the existing resources. So, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the technical efficiency of Traditional Livestock Husbandry (TLH) and determine the main factors influencing it via management variables of Range Management Plans (RMP) and demographic variables of ranchers (age, education, herd size) in the semi-arid rangelands of Northern Iran. To do this, the study employs a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) via parametric stochastic frontier analysis. This technique creates efficiency indices by comparing the performance of traditional livestock husbandry. The random sampling method was used to collect data via a survey questionnaire from 82 semi-nomad ranchers in 2018 – 2019. Results show that the average value of scale efficiency (SE) was 0.78; technical efficiency (TE) at Constant Returns to Scale (TECRS) and Variable Returns to Scale (TEVRS) level were calculated 0.54 and 0.69, respectively. Also, implementing RMP in some RUs could improve SE level by 0.81. Over 62.2% of animal units show increasing returns to scale and about a quarter to a fifth of the animal units were in the area of risk-reducing returns which indicates the need to reduce the scale to improve efficiency. Therefore; a significant part of technical efficiency is related to the SE and in the current research, implementing RMP in rangeland units improved the SE up to 81%. This ratio of RMP-in was less than RMP-out which showed the need to increase returns to scale to improve efficiency. About 10% of animal units in implementing RMPs allocated to perfectly efficient and so-called are on the boundary function. The Tobit regression results indicated that education, experience, livestock breed and implantation of RMP significantly affected the efficiency. Policies are thus needed to improve the mentioned above factors to sustain the efficiency of RUs that diversify the rancher’s economy.

Given the shortage of annual income for farmers in villages, rural households do not have significant savings to finance their activities. Thus, they inevitably have to turn to formal or informal sources to provide part of their financial requirements in order to be able to provide their required inputs on time. This study aimed at investigating the problem of providing liquidity to small farmers and selling products immediately after harvest with unsuitable prices, which brings very low profit margins and sometimes losses for farmers. To solve the problem, the proposal of FAO was reviewed using the capacity of the Iranian Agricultural Commodity Exchange, where a warehouse receipt system was proposed for short-term financing of farmers. In order to operationalize the warehouse receipt system in Iran, it was designed and localized according to the type of financial and economic relations governing the country.

In this study, the dynamic programming or Bellman Equation was used. According to Bellman equation, a crop year is divided into two seasons, the first season is called Marketing Season and the second one is called Without Product Season. Marketing season begins with harvesting of corn and would be finished with the beginning of without product season. Without product season starts at the end of selling Corn and would be finished at the beginning of next harvesting. The smallholder farmer begins the marketing season by storing freshly harvested corn. He must decide how much of his corn he wants to sell at the initial market prices and how much he wants to store (the amounts of the product stored are divided into two parts including the amount stored in the farmer's farm and the amount stored in the commercial warehouses; and the storage in the commercial warehouse is costly for him. In this study, it was assumed that the corns were not transferred to the next year. To optimize the farmer's current and future consumption utility, the dynamic planning method with the aim of maximizing the consumption utility function of the small-scale farmer in season i (here, it included two seasons of marketing and without product and had two values) with definition limits was used to finance the warehouse receipt system.

Optimizing the utility of the farmer's current and future consumption according to the amount of corn sales and storage was done using MATLAB 2021Rb software. By values in tables the results of the feasibility of using the warehouse receipt system method by the farmer as a short-term financing tool was studied. In this study, three scenarios were examined. In the first scenario, which is the same as the basic state, the farmer's degree of risk aversion to corn price changes during the marketing season was considered to be 0.4; thus, at the optimal point, the farmer would sell 25 percent of the corn at the time of harvest and store the remaining 75 percent of the corn in the farm warehouse. In the second scenario, the farmer's degree of risk aversion to corn price changes during the marketing season was considered to be 0.5; thus, at the optimal point, the farmer would sell 43 percent of the corn at harvest time and store the remaining 57 percent of the corn in the farm warehouse (the amount of corn stored in the commercial warehouse would be zero). There were also consumed 48 percent of the income from the sale of corn products in the marketing season and stores and the remaining 52 percent in cash during the marketing season for use in the off-season. Finally, in the third scenario, the farmer's degree of risk aversion to corn price changes during the marketing season was considered to be 0.6; thus, at the optimal point, the farmer would sell 53 percent of the corn at the time of harvest and store the remaining 47 percent of the corn in the farm warehouse. The amount of corn stored in the commercial warehouse by the farmer would be zero. Also, there were consumes 47 percent of the income from the sale of corn products in the marketing season and stored the remaining 53 percent in cash during the marketing season for use in the off-season.

According to the study results, the use of the warehouse receipt system by Iranian corn growers has failed under the studied conditions and it will be applicable only in certain conditions for risk-taking people. Therefore, considering many benefits of this method application for farmers, for its implementation, the following are suggested: 1. Knowledge and awareness of farmers through training and education will reduce the risk of adopting new methods. Therefore, by introducing and informing about the advantages and disadvantages of the proposed plan, it will be easier for farmers to make their decisions.2. The government can provide the conditions for farmers to use this method by applying price policies. The government can optimize the possibility of storing corn in commercial warehouses by creating a price difference for different qualities of corn.3. The government can support the implementation of this method by granting facilities with a low interest rate through which in addition to benefiting the farmers, the commodity exchange will be developed.4. Securitization of warehouse receipts for supply in the commodity exchange can optimize the farmers' use of the warehouse receipt financing system. Farmers or intermediaries in the agricultural sector can use this method to market their products and sell them at the right price.

The validity of the TAR model with a fixed threshold in a time series variable wich has a trend, is misleading due to the existence of permanent inflation in the general level of prices. Most studies in Iran do not pay attention to this issue. in this paper we apply two innovations; First, the use of a variable (but exogenous) threshold point, second, the use of pannel data that shows the possibility of revealing the heterogeneity of price transfer patterns between different markets. The data includes the monthly retail price of chicken in Tehran, Isfahan, Mazandaran and Golestan during the years 2003 to 2018. A threshold autoregression model was used to show the relationship between prices in different markets. In this model, the threshold is not fixed and is a function of the transportation cost in each period and each two markets. The results showed that the price transmission of chicken meat between the four markets is asymmetric and in the case where the price gap is more than the cost of transportation, the price transmission is fast and unstable. In another case, when the price difference is less than the transportation cost, the price transmission is stable. Hausman test showed that the price transmission has a random component, but it does not affect the parameters and the regime change is based on the transportation cost. Government policies in the chicken meat market have caused a slower price transfer between them. It also helps to explain the market better by using threshold patterns that do not have a fixed threshold point.

Today, rapid changes in climate, trade policies and technology have led to production, price and income shocks in the grain market. This study aimed at investigating the food security of different groups of society due to production, price and income shocks using the multiple market equilibrium model. Due to the importance of cereal products, especially bread, rice and pasta in the food basket of Iranian households, production, price and income shocks for this group of food and their effects on food security of the households by urban and rural income groups as well as government and freelance jobs were surveyed. The required information was extracted from the raw cost and income data of urban and rural households from 2008 to 2018 through the Statistics Center of Iran (SCI). The results showed that the food security of the society is mostly influenced by the production shocks of grain products, so that with a twenty percent decrease in the production of grain products, the poor and middle rural households, respectively, with an average percentage of calorie changes of -15.6 and -10.9 were among the most sensitive groups; on the other hand, poor households with government jobs would suffer the most from the increase in the price of cereal products, with an average percentage change of 7.9 calories. Also, increasing the income of poor households might play an effective role in improving their food security, while increasing the income of middle-income households would change the consumption pattern of these households. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate price and income support policies in order to maintain the welfare of poor households.

Despite the increasing well-being of economic growth in the contemporary era, serious environmental problems are facing the future of humanity, threatening human life. Economic activities such as industrial, agricultural, and service activities use natural resources and dependent on them, on the other hand the nature of their process potentially pollute the environment; Therefore, if not paying attention to these activities' consequences and environmental issues, enormous costs must be spent to remove the damage and waste from a lack of attention to this issue. Research in organizational sustainability and sustainable utilization of resources have generally been conducted within the scope of large companies. At the same time, the main share of industrial and commercial activities is available to small and medium-sized businesses and they actually have a significant contribution to environmental performance; Therefore, methods such as green supply chain management are useful for small and medium-sized organizations to expand green activities to improve environmental performance. Green supply chain management is with environmental requirements in all stages of product design, selection and supply of raw materials, production and manufacturing, delivery and transfer processes, and reuse management to maximize the resources and productivity of energy consumption along with improvement of supply chain performance. According to studies today, the consumer wants to protect himself and the environment, and this has formed a kind of social responsibility and has led to the formation of targeted consumer choices, and as a result, companies have faced increasing pressure to be responsible and greener. The distribution sector is one of the important sectors of the economy. This sector, as the interface between consumer and producer to create a market economy, is essential and plays an essential role in price bidding. The distribution sector is one of the important sectors of the economy. This sector, as the interface between consumer and producer to create a market economy, is essential and plays an essential role in Price formation. Retailers play the most important role in changing people's consumption patterns and are also the most important part of the supply chain of any company. The growth in stores, along with the pursuit of a competitive strategy, has led to a high level of concentration in food retailing. Considering the importance of food and its waste, the development of retail sales, as well as the existence of environmental problems in this region, the existence of research that is comprehensive and complete in a way that shows the effect of green supply chain management in the aspect of food retail It seems necessary to examine and evaluate.

This study examines the relationship between the green supply chain with environmental performance and economic performance among food retailers in Sari city. The statistical population of this research is all food retailers in Sari city. The sample size was determined using Cochran's formula with an unknown statistical population of 96, and 130 questionnaires were distributed to be sure, and 119 questionnaires were confirmed by removing ambiguous questionnaires. The data required for this research was collected using a five-point Likert questionnaire in the spring of 2022 and the model was analyzed using the structural equation model through Smart-PLS software.A structural equation model (SEM) is a specific causal structure between a set of latent variables and observed variables. Through the structural equation model, latent variables (factor or structure) can be measured indirectly by using obvious variables (questionnaire items or questions). To check the relationship between green supply chain factors in stores and supply chain management processes on environmental and economic performance; Factor load, reliability, and validity of each of the observed variables are evaluated. To check the validity of each of the observed items or variables, the factor load of each observed variable is calculated, which shows whether the variance between the constructs and its indicators is greater than the variance of the measurement error of that construct or not. Average Variance Extracted (AVE) is used to establish validity. Also, the index used to measure reliability is the composite reliability index (CR), which calculates the reliability of structures not in absolute terms, but according to the correlation of their structures with each other, and it is superior from this point of view.

The primary purpose of this study is to identify the relationship between the green supply chain and economic and environmental performance in food retail in Sari. In this research, data analysis was performed in two parts: descriptive and inferential. According to the diversity of the structure of the stores, 14% were grocery, 79% were grocery and protein items, and 7% were grocery, protein items and vegetables. The minimum and maximum ages for store managers were 24 and 74, respectively. In terms of area, the smallest store was about 15 square meters, and the largest store was about 2000 square meters. Based on the results obtained, among the influencing factors for green activities in stores, we can mention the negative effect of water and energy management and waste management on cooperation with supplier. Additionally, the influencing factors in SCM processes can be described as the impact of 0.430 units of green purchasing on environmental performance, the impact of 0.270 and 0.216 units of green logistics on environmental performance and economic performance, respectively, and the impact of 0.432 units of cooperation with suppliers on economic performance. In addition, based on the results of the influencing factor in the performance results, it can be seen that the effect of 0.329 units and significant environmental performance on economic performance. Based on the results of this research, it can be suggested to the retail stores and food stores of the studied area that it is better to replace the traditional supply chain of their businesses with the green supply chain to maintain the environmental performance and improve their economic performance. Also, the importance of this issue requires that the green supply chain management model be considered at different levels of society, which this research was also formed in this regard, and it can help the competitiveness of organizations and the environmental performance of the food industry.

The agricultural sector relies heavily on energy consumption to meet the growing need for food. One of the challenges of sustainable agriculture is that the majority of farmers still use fossil energy. Carbon dioxide emissions in Iran have caused $ 26.27 billion in damage to the country, of which $ 1.57 billion is the share of the agricultural sector. The final energy consumption per capita in Iran's agricultural sector is 3.3 times the global average. Therefore, energy use in the country is very important. This study prioritized renewable energies in the agricultural sector of the north of Iran (Golestan, Mazandaran, and Guilan) using the Entropy weighting technique and the TOPSIS method. The information required for this study was collected using a Delphi method from 39 experts and five types of renewable energy and five criteria. The results showed that the Prioritization of energies are solar energy, wind energy, biomass energy, hydropower, and geothermal energy and Environmental, political, social, technical and economic criteria rank first to fifth in importance, respectively.

Considering the role of new technologies and integrated information and communication technology in improving the supply chain, as well as the importance of investigating the preferences of actors to accept technology, the purpose of this study is to identify and rank the indicators of blockchain technology for the configuration of the vegetable oil supply chain. For this purpose, the symmetric analysis method was used and the relative importance of features and the desirability of evaluating parts of the surfaces were calculated. This method is used to identify and understand the combined effects of attributes on the preference for a product or service. To collect information, 9 cards were designed using XLSTAT software, and then 42 vegetable oil supply chain agents, including farmers, importers, oil factories, and other supply and distribution sectors. , completed online in 2022. Based on the results, the features of "Do the order on time & Close relationship with suppliers", "Transparency in all physical-financial-product transactions", "Reduce Lead time", "Compatibility and planning" and "Data immutability" were respectively the most desirable. This research showed that by using the features of blockchain technology, it is possible to facilitate the cooperation and integration of the vegetable oil supply chain and create the highest benefit for the chain actors. In the following, by designing the structure of this technology in accordance with the preferences of the actors of the vegetable oil supply chain and also with the cooperation of policymakers in order to plan and prepare the necessary infrastructure in order to implement blockchain technology in the country, the conditions of this chain can be improved.

The gap time between of production costs and income agricultural products leads to price fluctuations, uncertainty about prices, and also the inability of the farmer to meet his living expenses during the process of producing products. The main goal of this study is providing a solution and introduce the new tools to farmers. To achieve for that purpose, the warehouse receipt system, whose main idea is taken from the FAO research center in 2009, is proposed. The executive structure of the proposed warehouse receipt system is in such a way that it can provide the prosperity of Iran's agricultural commodity exchange transactions and the financing of farmers by banks, and also reduce the risk of product prices during the production process. In the following, to evaluate the acceptance of this system by farmers and its implementation in Iran, the agent-based model was introduced as a tool to test it before applying. The agent-based model can evaluate the effectiveness of the government's motivational and punitive policies for the implementation and expansion of the warehouse receipt system. In order to carefully and comprehensively examine the financing mechanism designed for farmers in the short term, it is suggested that the products that are present in the agricultural ring of the Commodity Exchange (such as corn and barley) are selected as a pilot and the system can be implemented. The warehouse for the producers of these products should be evaluated according to the proposed tool of this study.

Many of the human environmental problems arise from maladaptive behaviors and unstable patterns of life. The reason for the disappearance of forests is not beyond this discussion. One-sided management methods of natural resources and unfamiliar with the needs and traditional way of life of villagers and families living in the forest areas of northern Iran, unfavorable economic and social situation of villagers and low and unsustainable development in rural areas are effective factors in destroying Hyrcanian forests. One of the nature-friendly management methods that that has become popular in the world in the last two decades is "Ecovillage".The purpose of this study is to localize rural ecosystem criteria and indicators in developed countries and prioritize these indicators in rural ecosystems along the Darabkola forest with the aim of preventing the destruction and improper use of Natural areas, including forests and pastures.

In this study, the Delphi method was used to identify and localize the criteria and indicators of ecological, economic and socio-cultural evaluation. Entropy Shanon and TOPSIS techniques were also used to determine the weight and prioritization of these criteria and indicators.

The results showed that ecological criteria with 0.460 had the highest and socio-cultural and economic criteria with 0.375 and 0.165, respectively, had lower weights.

In general, the results of this study showed that attention to ecological category indicators has a higher priority than social and economic indicators. As a result, it is more important to pay attention to these indicators for decision making and management.

Agriculture is an activity with various risks, including production, trade and financial risks. The instability of the prices of agricultural products as a major problem has always caused concern and distrust of producers and consumers towards the market. Price insurance with price risk coverage, which is the most important market sign and the most important factor in production and sales decisions, is a good way to reduce product price fluctuations in the market. The purpose of this study is to assess the feasibility of price insurance to cover the price risk of farmers in Sari, which reduces the risk of agricultural prices and business stability.

In this study, using field data and interviews with farmers, Features affecting the acceptance of price insurance such as price insurance flexibility for different products and its varieties, the ability to update premiums based on market day price ,and calculate fair premiums based on the index agreed by the insurer and insurance were investigated. For this purpose, Spearman correlation coefficient and structural equations were used for farmers in Sari.

The results showed that between price insurance and price insurance flexibility variables for different varieties and different products, the ability to update the premium based on the market day price and calculate a fair premium based on the index agreed by the insurer and the insurer there is a positive correlation. Also, the correlation between price insurance and the ability to update premiums based on the market price is greater than other effective factors.

According to the results, the flexibility of price insurance on the acceptance of price insurance for different products and its varieties by farmers, the ability to update price insurance on the acceptance of price insurance by farmers and price insurance on a fair premium based The index agreed by the insurer and the insurer of price insurance has an effect on the acceptance of price insurance by farmers. Therefore, the research hypotheses are confirmed.

The study of the behavior of investors has a significant bearing on the development of various economic sectors. One of the important issues in assessing the success of investors is their predicted level of achievement. In this study, the level of realization of agricultural conversion and complementary construction projects in Mazandaran province has been investigated. The level of possibility of the goals achieved is from the proposed capacity ratio in the license to the capacity built to start work. The data was collected from the Jihad Agriculture Organization of Mazandaran province and 386 units were selected as the sample. The units studied in this research were divided into three groups less than realized, fully realized and more than realized. The generalized probit model was used to identify the effective factors on the level of feasibility. The results show that the variables of type of ownership, location, activity size, duration of construction of unit on the level of realization of construction of conversion industries are effective. The effect of these variables varies in different cities and types of activities. Using the present model, we can predict the level of realization of planned goals in the construction of the mentioned units.

In this study, a polynomial goal programming approach based on the mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model is used to select the optimal portfolio based on different investor preferences structure. Then systematic risk is considered as a constraint in the model because of its importance in decision making. Extreme Downside Hedge is considered as the measurement of systematic risk. The data used in this study include daily stock price of selected food industry companies and market index for 2015-2019. The results showed that investor preferences influence portfolio selection and allocation of capital, so individuals can choose their portfolio based on their preferences. The risk entry into the model also indicated that given this limitation, portfolio selection would shift to the stocks of companies that are less affected by market volatility. Based on results, it is suggested that in future studies the model be developed based on other limitations such as different degree of risk aversion in decision making. The model can also be designed based on fuzzy logic and its performance be investigated under such conditions. Also, results of each estimation can be considered as an investment patern for individuals.

This study is aimed to analyze the attitude of gardeners towards the establishment of marketing cooperatives. We used descriptive-survey technique was used to collect data. The statistical population includes all grape growers in Takestan. The sample size was calculated using the formula of Mendenhall et al and sample was selected using Randomly Stratified Sampling method. The data collection tool was a questionnaire that included two parts: scales for measuring research variables and personal and economic characteristics of gardeners. The face validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by five faculty members of Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University. To assess the reliability, Cronbach's alpha coefficient and combined reliability were used, which showed the acceptable reliability of the questionnaire scales. For mean comparison and correlation statistic tests, SPSS 24 software was used and for estimating the structural equations model, AMOS14 software was used. The results showed that in totally, 61.7% of the selected gardeners had a positive attitude towards the establishment of marketing cooperatives. Also, the variables of cooperative knowledge, the degree of cohesion and participation of local people, and understanding the existing obstacles and problems had a positive and significant effect on gardeners' attitudes toward creating marketing cooperatives. According to the research findings, providing educational programs using media that are suitable for gardeners in the region in order to increase gardeners' knowledge and awareness of cooperatives, as well as programs that increase the level of participation of local people can pave the way for successful marketing cooperatives in the region.

The gap between the price received by the producer and the price paid by the consumer is referred to as the marketing margin. How decision-makers, consumers and supply chain brokers make decisions is affected by various shocks.

In this study, a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model and impact-response functions were used to investigate shocks during the period 1974-2014.

The results showed that the shock of good news and technology leads to a positive deviation in production and a negative deviation in the marketing margin of the agricultural sector. Also, price fluctuations due to news and technology shocks in the Iranian economy move in line with the cycle of recession and prosperity. Thus, news and technology shocks play an important role in the fluctuations of important economic variables. Also, the impact of the media on the marketing margin of the agricultural sector, the importance of news and transparency in the economic environment should be considered by policy makers.

news shock in general leads to a negative deviation in the marketing margin and the marketing margin of the agricultural sector in particular. Also, price fluctuations due to technological shocks in the Iranian economy move in line with the cycle of recession and news boom, because the emergence of technological shocks leads to a positive deviation of production.

Consumer preferences regarding tea packaging are very important in the tea packaging industry and businesses. In this study, by combining symmetric analysis method with artificial neural network algorithm, buyerschr('39') preferences for tea packaging and factors affecting it have been used to identify. Tea packaging influences consumer preferences and marketing by conveying visual and textual information. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of simultaneous tea packaging characteristics with price component on consumer preferences by symmetric analysis and artificial neural network based on symmetric analysis in Sari. The required data were collected in 1397 by completing 296 questionnaires. In this research, SPSS and Excel software have been used. Based on the results of the conjoint analysis of the four characteristics of the shape, Information, price and brand. the information on the package had the greatest impact on the consumer. Also, limited information is more preferable than complete information. Relatively newer brands are more preferable to long-term brands. Using the weight obtained from the results of conjoint analysis in the artificial neural network along with the entry of income, age and amount of tea consumption variables, the results showed that the effect of information on the total model of neural network is 25%, price is 50%, shape is 22% and brand is 19% in consumer selection. In the artificial neural network model, with the arrival of the variables income, age, and consumption of tea, choose according to the income and consumption of state of mind (desires) to the mode select consumer (close to the demand), the adjustment is that, in terms of properties of individual artificial neural network model leads to a realistic show the preferences of the  consumer in the model, artificial neural network has been؛ For example, the effect of tea price variable increased from 24% in conjoint analysis to 50% in synthetic neural network model based on conjoint analysis. According to the results of the research, entrepreneurs and business owners related to tea packaging should do the packaging in the form of a combination of minimal information (brand name, consumer price and production date and expiration) in the form of cylindrical cans and high price level.

Due to factors such as political issues, technological change and natural disasters as well as the spread of environmental concerns and social responsibility, supply chain issues are no longer just a matter of looking ahead but the reverse-processing is also a matter of consideration. For this purpose, the present paper deals with the design and modeling of multi-periodic and multi-product green closed-loop supply chain in olive production. After designing the supply chain, the optimization of the whole chain profit and costs of the pollutants from the olive-product-processing process was investigated using a Genetic Algorithm based on Iranian olive data during the years 2016 to 2018. The model also came closer to reality by incorporating risk into the proposed model and taking into account the demand of all centers under risk conditions. The results show that the chain is profitable at 55417 billion Riyals, but with respect to the waste disposal to waste recycling cost-benefit ratio, 431.91, Iran's olive supply chain performs poorly in waste recycling, which by incorporating this model and revising the chain, this ratio will be reduced by 79%. Furthermore, according to the results, there is no need for import in risky conditions and all the market’s demand and export centers demand is met without any lost sales by the chain itself. It is, therefore, suggested to increase productivity in the field of olive-conversion-industries by equipping olive processing plants and constructing oil-production waste processing plants. On the other hand, in spite of the potentials and capacity of olive production and processing, it is suggested that macro-level policies be adopted to increase the consumption of olive oil in order to promote community health and create added value in order to increase the production of these products compared to its present value.

Abstract
Objective & In the present study, considering the importance of virtual water consumption management and the need to pay attention to the issue of uncertainty in the agricultural sector, a cropping pattern to optimize virtual water consumption with emphasis on the uncertainty of rainfall and crop prices is presented for farmers in Sari Goharbaran.
 
Materials & In order to achieve the objective, a mathematical programming model under uncertain conditions has been used to minimize virtual water consumption and to achieve the certainty equivalent based on the tail value at risk measure. Some of the required data, such as the belief degree of farmers about different levels of price and rainfall, were collected through interviews with the farmers in the study area in 2018. Finally, groupings were made for the belief degree and scale of the farmers' land.
 
The results indicated that the current cropping pattern is not optimal in terms of virtual water consumption and achieving certain profit. Comparison of the results of optimization of cropping pattern in different belief degree groups also showed that the proposed model in more subjective judgment groups and large scale land group, save more on virtual water consumption than more uncertain judgments and small scale land group.
 
According to the results of this study, farmers in the region do not use water optimally in conditions of uncertainty, and the necessary measures should be taken in this regard.

Due to the importance of production and consumption of milk and dairy products, this study with purpose of investigation the consumers’ preferences and its affecting factors have been done as the nested logit model in the Sari city in 2018. Sample size was selected based on simple random sampling method and 275 questionnaires have been collected. The results show that yogurt, milk and cheese have the most preferences among the dairy products and consumers have more tendencies to low fat dairy products than full fat. The study results of affecting factors on selecting of each the diverse dairy products and individual preferences revealed that price and family cost decrease the probability of dairy products choosing and age, education and attention to sport variables increase its probability. Marketing mix variables (p4) were also considered as factors influencing the selection of dairy products. Marketing managers, especially in dairy market by using of these results can improve their products based on consumers tend and preferences.

hoosing the appropriate site is important in the construction of units such as agricultural processing industries. In this study, we try to determine the factors affecting the exploitation of the agricultural processing industries and measure the share of location as one of the important issues in locating research. The 2572 data were collected from the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Mazandaran province. The two-level Logit model was used as the estimation method. The results showed that the variables of cooperative ownership, planned capacity, unit area, industrial parks, and livestock and Horticultural activities harm the exploitation, and the variables of the capital and fishery activity have a positive effect on the exploitation. Also, the construction site explains on average 1.2% of the observed deviation, which is not explained by independent variables in the model. The share of the worst and the best location in terms of spatial characteristics are 0.2 and 4.6%. The low share of the site in exploitation can be due to the right choice of location by investors or the proximity of the cities of Mazandaran province. Therefore, it is necessary to improve other factors affecting the construction of the Agricultural processing industries in the Mazandaran.

Tariff policy along agricultural products supply chain has been always a challenge of policymakers of this sector. In this study, different policy formulations of tariff rate on raw material in upstream chains and processed products in downstream chains were investigated. Due to market integration along the chain, a multi-market partial equilibrium model was employed to simulate the scenarios. Our findings show that with 20 percent (40 percent) increases in oilseeds import tariff, the production increases by 169 percent (189 percent) and the import of raw oil decrease by 89 percent (99 percent). Nevertheless, increases in vegetable oil tariff by 20 percent (40 percent) will reduce consumer surpluses by 32 percent (56 percent). Moreover, vegetable oil tariff has avoidable impacts on downstream chains including oilseed and raw oil. According to the study results, it is recommended that cross-cutting impacts of these policies on vegetable oil chain should be considered in order to improve effectiveness and efficiency of market policies.

Selecting suitable crops for cultivation in a non-certain environment is considered as an important management topic in the agricultural sector. Despite the multiple application of probability theory in quantifying uncertainty in the form of risk programming, validity of this theory depends on the existence of frequency for uncertain variable. For events that cannot be measured by frequency, the only solution is to use subjective judgment of persons in the domain field rather than historical data. Some experts have mistakenly considered subjective judgmentl as a subjective probability and thus used the probability theory to quantify subjective judgmental. But based on existing evidence, the quantification of subjective judgment should be carried out in another theory called the uncertainty theory. In uncertainty theory, in addition to using the belief degree rather than frequency for calculating mathematical moments, the expected value of multiplicative variables will be different with their corresponding relations in the probability theory. Considering these conditions and having in mind that the agricultural sector is always faced with uncertain variables such as price of crops and weather conditions like rainfall, in this study the revenue uncertainty measures of major crops in the Goharbaran region of Sari have been calculated and compared. There are different measures for uncertainty, which in the present study variance and Tail Value at Risk (TVaR) have been used.

The first step in the application of the uncertainty theory is the elicitation of the belief degree or subjective judgments of the farmers about the crop's price and rainfall during the crop season. To elicit the uncertainty distribution of these variables based on the subjective judgments of farmers, 120 farmers were randomly selected in 2018. After eliciting the farmers' beliefs about uncertain rainfall and prices in the cdf method, it was necessary to select the number of belief degree which current practice was based on previous studies in this field. After calculating the above subjective judgments, while assuming linear, zigzag, normal and normal forms for uncertainty distribution, the parameters of each function were calculated using the least squares method. Among the forms of uncertainty distribution functions, the best form of the uncertainty distribution for each crop's price and rainfall was selected by comparing the RMSE indexes. Subsequently, by calculating a causal relationship between rainfall and crop yield, inverse uncertainty distribution of yield was also extracted. Given the inverse uncertainty distribution functions of crop price and yield, required parameters such as expected revenue, variance and TVaR of revenue at 95% confidence were calculated based on operational laws of uncertainty theory and probability theory. Eviews and Matlab software were used to estimate the yield response function and the uncertainty distribution functions, respectively.

In this study, after collecting the belief degree of farmers in the studied area about different levels of price and rainfall, three groups of comprehensive beliefs about prices and rainfall were determined by goodness of fit test. Then, according to the relationship between crop yield and rainfall, the inverse function uncertainty distribution is also calculated. With the uncertainty distribution function of crops price and yield, the expected revenue, variance (standard deviation) and TVaR measure for revenue per hectare of crops were calculated and compared with the uncertainty theory as well as probability theory. Based on the results of this study, the amount of the above measures varied in different belief degree groups,    which is due to differences in the uncertainty distribution parameters. Also, based on the results of this study in all groups of beliefs for all crops, the probability theory compared to the uncertainty theory has estimated the variance approximately more than 30% less, which is a significant result. In other words, applying probability theory to belief modeling will lead to erroneous and misleading results. In the case of the TVaR measure in binary multiplicative variable conditions, the use of probability theory and uncertainty theory in calculating TVaR does not yield conflicting results.

The purpose of this study was to compare the results of applying probability theory for modeling belief degree rather than uncertainty theory in order to illustrate the necessity of using uncertainty theory in belief degree modeling. Studying the effect of probability theory in modeling the belief degree also suggests that the application of probability theory in the presence of two uncertain variables has no significant effect on expected values and TVaR but has a significant effect on variance size. Based on the results of the present study, assuming the binary multiplicative variable, in calculating higher mathematical moments such as variance, the results of probability theory and uncertainty theory make a considerable difference. This demonstrates the need to promote the uncertainty theory in belief degree modeling. In other words, basic training in the belief degree modeling method should be considered.