جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "سناریونویسی" در نشریات گروه "علوم انسانی"

Today, achieving professional development of school principals is one of the most important goals of education in all developed countries and most developing countries.

The aim of this study was to provide Optimal scenarios for the professional development of primary school principals in 2025 Horizon northwestern provinces of the Iran.

This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature, based on new methods of Future studies, analysis and exploration, which uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative models in the form of documentary and survey methods and in two stages of identifying key drivers using software Mic Mac is based on the method of Cross Impact Analysis and presenting the Optimal scenarios using the scenario Wizard software. The statistical population included professors, experts and specialists in the field of educational Administration in the northwestern provinces of the Iran. The sample size was 12 people which was continued by purposeful sampling and snowball sampling until data saturation.

the results of the application of cross - impact analysis method showed that 15 key factors among the 52 factors identified in the interview stage, have the greatest impact on the future of professional development of principals. By preparing the basket of scenarios for these factors, 45 possible situations are defined for 15 factors.

With the formation of matrix 45*45 and with the analysis performed by Scenario Wizard software, 11 strong scenarios, 29 plausible scenarios and 39 weak scenarios were extracted.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the drivers of effective evaluation of industrial development policies using a futuristic approach.

The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of data collection and exploratory approach. The statistical population of the present study includes experts and specialists in political-making and economics, which has been select by the method of snowball. Library studies containing 36 variables of propellants were used to identify the drivers and the MicMac questionnaire was used to collect data. In addition, MicMac software and scenario wizard have been use to analyze the data.

By entering the data obtained from the experts' response in MicMac software, out of 36 propellants, 19 propellants were identified as the best variables. In addition, to evaluate the future of the evaluation of industrial development policies, for 19 main drivers, favorable to unfavorable situations were designed as possible scenarios and then referred to the relevant experts. Findings from the analysis of existing scenarios, 8 main scenarios were identified.

Research results in MicMac method, Stakeholder, Problem-oriented, Innovation, Judgment, Value, political competencies, Action commitment, Social competence, Acceptability, Comprehensiveness, Perceptual and analytical competencies, Based on rationality, Efficiency and effectiveness, Test, Participation, Technical competence and goal orientation variables were identified as the main variables. Also, in the scenario writing method, eight important scenarios were identified that the first, second and fourth scenarios were the best scenarios.

This article, titled "The Future of Media Management in Light of the Impact of Artificial Intelligence and New Media on Religion," has been written to address a novel topic. Given the significant advancements in the field of artificial intelligence and new media technologies, the role and impact of these two factors on religion and media management are of high importance. This research aims to achieve effective and useful results for individuals and organizations involved in media management by addressing the mentioned issues.Research

The research employs a qualitative method using future scenario writing to explore the impact of artificial intelligence and new media on religion and the future of media management. Discussing its challenges will also assist media managers in finding the best strategies for utilizing artificial intelligence and new media in media management, thereby contributing to knowledge development in this area.

Based on the findings, with the rapid and increasing growth of technology in the near future, it seems we will witness an interdependence and influence among media. In other words, we will observe the impact and utilization of this technology (artificial intelligence) in most information sources and communication channels for transmitting various types of messages (both religious and non-religious) to target audiences through different media channels.

Ultimately, this article aims to provide guidance for future media managers by examining and referencing the applications or functions of artificial intelligence across various media industries, while also suggesting recommendations for other researchers.

Introduction :

In recent decades, the rapid growth of urbanisation has brought problems, one of which is the intensification of the rate of physical-spatial changes and the inefficiency of urban tissues. This process of population increase, a decline of social status, and disorder in the spatial-physical, economic and functional organisation in urban neighbourhoods that play an essential role in the life and decay of the city brought along this intermediate neighbourhood of Khajeh Rabi in Mashhad; it is one of the neighbourhoods that in recent decades has been associated with issues such as poverty, physical and social erosion, and a decrease in the standard of living. have not had their quality of life, the existence of one of the most important cemeteries in the city will also lead to the possibility of abandonment and degradation of the quality of this fabric, for this reason, the implementation of a comprehensive and sustainable plan for the regeneration of this neighbourhood to improve the quality of life of the residents is essential. Is. Therefore, this research has been carried out to present scenarios of urban regeneration in the Khajeh Rabi neighbourhood in Mashhad until 2033 and compile strategies for realising urban regeneration in the Khajeh Rabi neighbourhood.

The research method in this study is descriptive-analytical and based on documentary and library studies. For this purpose, the research variables are collected in the theoretical foundations section. With the method of structural analysis (in this method, the influence and effectiveness of the research variables according to the scoring range from 0 to 3, where 0 means no impact, one means weak impact, two means moderate impact, three means high impact and p means potential direct and indirect impact) were ranked. After that, the statistical population was selected from the elite group with a sample size of 20 people from among urban planning experts, the municipality of Region Three, university professors and doctoral students, and with surveys conducted in the form of a cross-effects matrix questionnaire, the influencing variables were identified, and The key drivers were selected from variables with high impact and uncertainty. In the next step, with the interviews conducted with 10 people from the experts of the 22 Bahman Facilitation Office in Mashhad, the possible states of the key drivers and the existing situation were identified, and compatible scenarios were determined using the method of interaction analysis in the scenario wizard. Finally, by identifying the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats that show the current situation and the resulting scenarios, using the SWOT model, the strategies for realising the desired scenario and controlling the disaster scenario were determined.

The findings in Mikmak show that the data has 74% validity, and the distribution of variables in the effect-direct dependence map indicates the existence of an unstable system in the field of regeneration in the Khajeh Rabi neighbourhood. Variables that are identified and predicted as key drivers in Mik Mak software can play a role in guiding the Khajeh Rabi neighbourhood system towards sustainability, including access to services, facilities and social facilities, equipment and infrastructure; the type of development is the network of roads, investment in the process of renovation and improvement of the neighbourhood, the type of management, the type of planning, the type of participation of residents, the rules and regulations of neighbourhood regeneration and the implementation of the project. The findings in the wizard scenario in the output of the urban regeneration system network diagram of the Khajeh Rabi neighbourhood indicate that the drivers of investment in the renovation and improvement process, the type of residents’ participation and the rules and regulations of the neighbourhood’s regeneration are more important than other drivers in this neighbourhood. They are reliable and able to control the system effectively. The output of the compatible scenarios, the scenarios in two favorable groups with 289% compatibility include: including: access of all residents to services, facilities and social facilities, full development of neighborhood equipment and infrastructure, intermediate development and smart growth in the neighborhood, organization of the road network in All dimensions (traffic, asphalt, etc.)), the allocation of incentive packages for investment in the renovation and improvement process for all residents, good urban governance in the neighborhood regeneration plan, formulation of a comprehensive neighborhood regeneration plan, capacity building and institution building in all dimensions, monitoring the full implementation of neighborhood regeneration laws and regulations and the use of professional consultants in the formulation and implementation of the neighborhood and disaster regeneration plan with 356% compatibility, including: lack of attention to access to services, facilities and social facilities, lack of development of neighborhood equipment and infrastructure, scattered growth and unplanned growth, lack of Incentive packages, top-down planning, failure to formulate a comprehensive redevelopment plan, lack of capacity building and institution building, lack of monitoring of neighborhood redevelopment laws and regulations, and failure to implement redevelopment plan.

The results show that the creation of cultural, leisure and sports spaces, such as the construction of a library and park for all residents to access social services, facilities and facilities, the use of barren lands and investment to create tourist places and the creation of commercial and branding centres near the tomb of Khajeh Rabi For intermediate development and smart growth in the neighbourhood, high-quality flooring of sidewalks With the support of the municipality to organise the road network, the support of the private and public sector in the construction of houses and giving loans to the people and investing in creating new jobs in the neighbourhood, for the allocation of incentive packages and the renovation and improvement of the neighbourhood for all residents, spatial justice in handling the neighbourhood by the municipality. For good urban governance, attracting investors’ participation through the granting of incentive points for the renovation of the neighbourhood for capacity building and institution building will be the most important strategies for the regeneration of the Khajeh Rabi area.

The Islamic Revolution in Iran profoundly transformed the regional dynamics of West Asia. Over the past few decades, Iran and Saudi Arabia, two major regional powers, have held fundamentally different and often conflicting ideologies, priorities, and goals for regional peace and stability (Zehraa et al., 2018). These differences became even more pronounced in 2010 and with the emergence of movements and uprisings known as the Islamic Awakening. While Iran supported these uprisings, the prospect of such movements extending into Saudi Arabia became a nightmare for its leaders and monarchy. Consequently, countering these uprisings became the top priority for the Saudi leadership. The two nations found themselves entangled in a complex web of suspicion and tension, which escalated over the subsequent years and ultimately led to the formal severance of diplomatic relations in 2016. Although the resumption of relations in 2023, after seven years, offers a glimmer of hope for a new chapter, it is essential to remain realistic and avoid excessive optimism or idealism. In fact, numerous challenges lie ahead for both nations, as deep-seated differences remain unresolved. For example, immediately after the reopening of embassies, the two countries faced new issues, including the Arash Gas Field and discussions about Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords. Normalizing relations is just the first step, and both nations now find themselves on the threshold of making crucial decisions about their future. After years of extensive tension and conflict, both sides are now sitting at the negotiation table. The potential for a new chapter marked by cooperation and understanding is within reach. Yet, can they break free from the current cycle of tension and discord? Will they continue their efforts to reduce tension? How may future global and regional events impact their measures? There are also other and relevant questions about the future of Iran–Saudi Arabia relations, so the future of their relations remains uncertain and ambiguous. The present study aimed to address the following questions: What are the possible scenarios for Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy towards the Islamic Republic of Iran in the 2030 horizons?

Literature Review:

Naderi and Tajik (2018) presented three scenarios for the future of Iran–Saudi relations: 1) the end of doubts (confrontation), 2) constructive chaos (support for the Axis of Resistance), and 3) stand-up fist (balance of power). They believe the likely scenarios are constructive chaos and stand-up fist. Dehghani-Firouzabadi et al. (2021) found that subjective, identity, and semantic factors (e.g., a lack of shared identity, perceived threats, and differing definitions of security) would significantly impact the relations between the two countries over the next decade. In The Saudi–Iranian Rivalry and the Future of Middle East Security, Terrill (2011) revealed that conflict and deep tension between the two countries have prevented the creation of link loops. In an article titled “Muting the Trumpets of Sabotage: Saudi Arabia, the US and the Quest to Securitize Iran,” Mabon (2017) claimed that Saudi would continue its efforts to reduce Iran’s regional influence. In “The Prospect of the Relationship Between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Saudi Arabia: Plausible Scenarios”, Diansaee and Yurtaev (2017) indicated that due to historical background and conflicting interests, the probable scenario governing the relations between the two countries would be one of tension and conflict. Likewise, Rostami et al. (2016) considered continued tensions and differences as the likely future scenario for Iran–Saudi relations.The studies reviewed above are predominantly characterized by deep pessimism, leading to reductionism. They also depicted tension and conflict as the only scenario, ignoring alternative futures or surprise endings. Moreover, they focused solely on near-term relations without clarifying Saudi Arabia’s perspective on Iran over the next seven years. To address these limitations, the current study took a balanced approach to examine Saudi Arabia’s future scenarios about Iran in the 2030 horizon.

The current study employed a future-oriented approach and the GBN technique to present scenarios about Iran–Saudi relations. Relying on Schwartz’s eight steps for developing and designing scenarios, the study identified the influential variables on the topic through documentary and field research, particularly interviews with experts. The key drivers were identified as those with higher average scores in the two components of importance and uncertainty. The calculation process was based on the geometric mean. The result was displayed in a 2-D matrix, with one dimension representing importance and the other representing uncertainty. In the next step, key uncertainties of each key driver were identified. The logic of the scenarios was then designed based on the intersection of the key drivers and their key uncertainties. The final scenarios were named, and the narrative for each was written.

The study examined and developed four scenarios for the future of Iran–Saudi relations. Each scenario briefly represents the factors and potential tensions between the two countries. In Scenario A, Saudi Arabia moves towards reducing tension and fostering cooperation with Iran, pursuing a balancing strategy with Chinese assistance. In Scenario B, Saudi Arabia enters a phase of heightened tension amidst the conflict with Iran, fueled by the U.S. and Israel. In Scenario C, while Saudi Arabia emphasizes tensions, China plays a constructive role in a détente between the two countries. In Scenario D, Saudi Arabia relies on soft diplomacy to reduce tensions with Iran.

According to the research findings and evidence, Scenario A emerges as the most probable. The rationale is that Scenario C and Scenario D exhibit internal inconsistencies. Additionally, Scenario B is undesirable for both countries, as prolonged tensions and conflicts could initiate a new cycle of disputes and hostilities. Currently, both countries strive for strategic stability and acknowledge their roles in regional equilibrium.

The war between Russia and Ukraine (since 2022),in addition to the extensive consequences for both countries,hasnot spared other governments at the regional and international level from its economic,political,geopolitical andgeostrategic consequences.For the Islamic Republic of Iran,which is considered an influential actor inthe region,the occurrence of the aforementioned war has created opportunities and challenges that can continue and enter in new stages if the existing scenarios about the future of this war are realized.The main question that this article tries to answer is,what consequences will these scenarios have forthe Islamic Republic of Iran?According tothe hypothesis ofthe research,considering the close relations between Iran and Russia on the one hand,and the dark relations between Iran and the West,as well as Iran's positions in the Ukraine war,on the other hand,the realization ofany of the possible scenarios can affect Iran’s politics,economy and position inthe international system.The purpose of this article is toexplain the effects of some possible scenarios about the Ukrainian war on Iran in the form of scenario writing and through the descriptive-analytical method.Based on the findings of the research,Iran's previous positions in the Russia-Ukraine warand its entry into thenew phase of cooperation with Russia will affect the intensity and weaknessofthe realization ofthe mentioned scenarios.

Reminiscent of a great, historic sacrifice, Arbaeen manifests a global opportunity for reinforcing Islamic beliefs. With millions of participants flocking from various places in the world, it has long turned into one of the massive marches in the world. As such, it deserves detailed plans, with a view to its global implications.

The present study aimed at investigating and designing a model for developing sports tourism in Iran.

The research methodology applied is combined of both qualitative and quantitative ones. In the qualitative part, open interviews were done with 12 professors and experts in the field of sports who were selected based on a snowball- judgmental method. The data were collected through considering the previous studies and conducting open interviews. In the part devoted to the quantitative study, expert-qualifier and matrix questionnaires were used. In order to assess the face and content validity of the tools and hypotheses, the findings of the study were given to the participants and after they studied the text of the theories, their comments were collected and applied. Results from expert-qualifier questionnaire showed that 15 key factors affect sport tourism in Iran.

Among all the factors, those of local considerations and international relations had the greatest effects on sport tourism. Based on these and the two major factors, 4 different scenarios were presented for the future of sport tourism in Iran; resilient development, the darkness of sport tourism, fragile development and ideal development. According to the ideal development which shows the best possible state for sport tourism, a very proper condition for it would be provided through overcoming international restraints and devising plans based on local and regional capacities. The darkness of sport tourism shows the worst state for it and can only come about due to foreign pressures and restrictions and lack of national efforts for advancing the conditions of sport tourism.

Finally, it is suggested that through identifying the best scenario, it would be possible to make necessary plans in order for the sport tourism to thrive and expand in Iran.

As the center of developments on local, regional, national, and global scales, and the site of influential actors, Tehran's metropolitan area has long been a stage for political power dynamics. Additionally, the presence of geopolitical drivers has further elevated its position in power relations. The central question of this research was this: What are the drivers and future scenarios of power relations in Tehran Metropolis? This was an applied research study with an exploratory nature. To answer the research question, indicators were extracted through a multi-stage interview process involving 30 elite experts and an elite panel. The Delphi method was also used to screen the propellants. The data were analyzed using the MicMac and Scenario Wizard software. The research results revealed 45 possible situations across 7 scenarios with strong and likely compatibilities. Based on the scenario table of geopolitical drivers affecting the future of power relations in Tehran Metropolis, 33.33% were in a favorable situation, 41.6% were in a semi-favorable situation, and 25% were in a static situation. The 1st and 2nd scenario boards were the most prominent in terms of position.

Today, the Resilience of Cities against Natural Hazards has become one of the important topics in Urban Management. On the other hand, paying attention to this issue from the point of view of future research has made it easier to plan to improve the future situation, therefore, The main goal of the present study Providing a model for increasing the resilience of the city of Konark against the Risks caused by Tropical Storms and It is with the approach Futures Studies. The Current Research is applied in terms of its purpose and Exploratory in its Nature, Two Documentaries and Field method have been used to collect data and information. The Statistical Population of this research included Relevant Experts and elites, who according to the objectives of the research and to achieve the desired model with a Future research approach through interviews with elites and experts and using a non-random purposeful sampling method (in a predetermined manner) done), and finally the Number of 15 People was obtained. In order to identify the key Driving Force, Structural analysis method (interaction effects) in the form of MICMAC Software was also used for Scenario writing using Scenario Wizard Software. The findings of the research showed that the Driving Force of "Surface Water Collection Channel" will have the most influence through their alternative futures (probable state) on other Driving Force in Determining the futures, and the Driving Force of "Changing the Structure of Organizations" Based on the Relationship of Alternative Futures, it has received the most influence from other alternative Futures. Also, the Driving Force of Flood Zoning Map, "Early Warning System of Natural Hazards and (GIS) and It has been Alternative futures of .that part Intermittent propellants

A significant part of the world community has accepted sustainable development as a smart framework to prevent future challenges. This flow started from the field of environment and now it has become a global trend that has been placed on the agenda of countries in the form of global obligations. Different governance approaches, global requirements, the role of multiple actors, etc., create countless ambiguities and uncertainties in the future of Iran's sustainable development. Therefore, in this research, using the methods of future studies, the future scenarios of Iran's sustainable development in the horizon of 2032 are formulated and prioritized, and policy recommendations related to the priority scenarios are proposed. In order to determine and categorize the factors, from the layered analysis model of the causes, to determine the uncertainties from the mutual effects analysis matrix, to develop the scenarios from the layered scenario development method and ranking the scenarios using the model proposed by the authors. Four key uncertainties including the basic approach in governance, global commitments, security and general policies were determined. The main scenarios with the names Farar Az Zendan, Simorgh Koh Qaf, Dasthay Baste and Khab Bija were recognized as the most likely and believable scenarios for the future of Iran's sustainable development. In the end, the strengthening of introverted popular institutions, the formation of parallel international and regional coalitions, the implementation of general policies, the maintenance and promotion of stable security, and the establishment of integrated management were suggested as policy recommendations.

Today,with the ever-increasing advancement in society,it is becoming a major issue for the society of transformation that has always been and continue.The desire for progress,not be possible without this transformation.The future of human beings is a vague and unknown future,and we must always try to know it with the help of future science.in recent decades, due to changes in events in various social, economic ,environmental and urban spheres, discussions about Urban density and Density.human look to the future also differ.This research, is based on a Futures studies approach, that with the using of descriptive-analytic method focus on the issues of urban congestion and future changes.and for data collection, using library-field-based approach and a new planning perspective (Futures studies) also In order to obtain information and collect relevant expert opinions, use of environmental scanning methods and to identify the proponents , the method of analyzing the interactions / structural effects and MICMAC software and for compiling the of the desired scenarios using the SCENARIOWIZARD software To the most important drivers in it The impact of these propellers on the situation has come to light, and, finally, the development of favorable scenarios in the future state of urban density in Region 2 of Tabriz Municipality will be achieved. At first, 60 effective factors identified in the condensation changes inTabriz city were investigated using a analysis MICMAC software of the 13 impeller agents, then by determining 47 possible probabilities for these13 factors and introducing them into the software the SCENARIOWIZARD, the number of strong scenarios4,and and the number of poor scenarios270 and the number of high-compatibility scenarios11.the analyzes from the scenarios show that the future status of the condensation changes in Tabriz city with the desired and better trend However,we should not forget about the occurrence of critical situations of the future situation.

The present research was conducted in order to develop scenarios for the future structure of academic disciplines and educational groups in Iran in the atmosphere of the fourth industrial revolution. The approach of the current research is mixed, in terms of practical-developmental purpose and in terms of data collection method, it is descriptive-analytical and using the scenario writing method. The statistical population includes two spectrums; Scientific documents and experts were from public institutions and universities in Tehran. The sampling method was used in the qualitative part of non-probability criterion-based targeted sampling and in the quantitative part of the available type. The sampling method was used in the qualitative part of non-probability criterion-based targeted sampling and in the quantitative part of the available type. The findings showed 16 factors that after the structural analysis of the factors and the weighting of the uncertainties with the method of importance and consensus, the duals of "individual and network knowledge production" and "worn and technological work and employment system" got the highest score. From the interaction of these two uncertainties, 4 scenarios: competent oriented network structure with hashtag symbol; Responsive business-oriented structure with Tradesman symbol; Knowledge oriented task structure with collage symbol; And the educational island structure was achieved with the symbol of the school. In this way, the current situation of the structure of university courses and educational groups in Iran is against the developments of the fourth industrial revolution in a spectrum from transformation (hashtag scenario) to collapse (school scenario). In the near future, universities are witnessing a crisis in the production of knowledge and skills, competence and orbital competence for university graduates and preparing them to enter new markets. So; It is recommended and suggested to transition from the education-oriented island structure to the competent oriented network structure.

Smart cities are developed and built as interconnected urban domains where embedded elements can interact with each other and with the users residing in them. In building smart cities, Internet of Things has the potential to collect information about the urban environment, provide new services to citizens, facilitate their daily life and increase the ability to live in the city. In the current research, with the participation of managers, officials and academic experts, the key drivers affecting the smart city based on the Internet of Things have been identified and finally, the scenarios effective on the formation of the smart city based on the Internet of Things have been compiled. The research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The method of collecting data and information was library, document and survey (interview). The review of scientific sources identified 26 factors affecting the smart city based on the Internet of Things, which were categorized into 6 dimensions, and a total of 25 people, including managers of related organizations and academic experts, were interviewed. Data analysis was based on prospective research technique; Including structure analysis, analysis of mutual effects based on Micmac and Scenario Wizard software. The results showed that there are 8 possible scenarios for the establishment of a smart city based on the Internet of Things, of which 1 scenario is in a strong and stable compatibility mode (zero incompatibility) and 7 scenarios are in a weak compatibility mode. The first scenario, which is a scenario with a positive direction, has an interaction effect score of 123 and a compatibility value of 2, while the second scenario, which seems to be unfavorable conditions for the future of the smart city based on the Internet of Things in Mashhad metropolis, has a total interaction effect score of -20 and the compatibility value is -1. The third scenario also has a compatibility value of -1 and with a total interaction effect score of 27, it can be one of the possible scenarios for the future of the smart city based on the Internet of Things in Mashhad metropolis.

Fars province is one of the main hubs of tourism centers in Iran. Therefore, paying special attention to tourism in the province and using Internet-of-things technology in its tourism management can provide suitable facilities for improving the welfare of its visiting tourists, thus increasing the visiting rate of its tourist destinations. In this regard, the present study sought to predict and identify the most important factors involved in applying the Internet of Things technology to the Smartization of tourist destinations in Fars province and to develop feasible desirable future scenarios thereof. To this end, the required data for this applied study were collected by conducting interviews, administering questionnaires, and carrying out a systematic review of related literature. Finally, the collected data were analyzed by the Scenario Wizard software using the MICMAC method. The results of the MICMAC analysis revealed the main role of 14 key variables in the application of the Internet of Things technology to the Smartization of tourist destinations in Fars province. On the other hand, two strong scenarios, 1548 weak scenarios, and nine scenarios with high compatibility were obtained using the Scenario Wizard software. Accordingly, the study used the aforementioned nine high-compatibility scenarios, finding that the future of tourism in Fars province would be similar to the current circumstances. It was also found that the trend of changes in the status of tourism would be slow and that the chances of applying the Internet of Things technology to the province’s tourism destinations would be low. Finally, based on the obtained scenarios, the study proposed some strategies to achieve the desired results in smart tourism. Therefore, the results of the current study could help tourism professionals prepare the ground for the application of state-of-the-art technologies such as the Internet of Things to tourism and thus develop the field through setting long-term plans.

One of the most important drawing strategies in the country's upstream documents is the development of petrochemical exports, which means that moving towards increasing petrochemical exports requires a change of attitude in the structure and relevant institutions and policies. The aim of the current research is to design policy scenarios for the development of petrochemical exports until 1414 BAST. A statistical sample of 12 experts was selected for interview and a statistical sample of 24 people was selected in 1401 to complete the questionnaire. In this research, the scenario development method based on mutual effects analysis was used. Among the findings, 26 factors were identified as the main policy drivers of petrochemical export development through thematic analysis. The mentioned factors were analyzed by using Micmac software. In the findings of the research, eight variables were identified as the key drivers that had the least effect and the most effect in the development of petrochemical exports. Then the obtained variables were entered into the Scenario Wizard software and four fair game scenarios; the loser champion; Land transfer and silent death were formulated as the main scenarios for the future development of the export of petrochemical products in the country. At the end, the developed scenarios were compared and analyzed with the background. The results and findings of this research can provide a suitable platform for policy makers and managers in the field of petrochemical exports so that understanding between policy makers is accompanied by an understanding and vision of the future.

Russia's military conflict in Ukraine, which began in February 2022 has global dimensions and various effects on the politics, economy and security of the international system. In the meantime, the evaluation of possible scenarios has a special place from the perspective of future studies.The main question of this article:What scenarios can be imagined if Russia uses nuclear weapons? The hypothesis that is raised following the mentioned question is that the use of nuclear weapons by Russia will have major geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic effects for global security in the short and long term. The present article tries to present some possible scenarios in relation to the future of this war and its effects on the international system in the framework of scenario planning and using the descriptive-analytical method with emphasizing on component of nuclear weapons.For this purpose, offensive realism has been chosen as theoretical framework to better explain the behavior of the Russian government in Ukrainian war.The findings of the research show that Russia's use of nuclear weapons can, on the one hand, lead to a mutual reaction by the United States and NATO, and on the other hand, instead of helping to disarm nuclear weapons, lead to its spread

In contemporary times, the cultivation and advancement of libraries hold substantial importance as indicative markers of cultural progress. This research endeavors to examine the cultural and social implications arising from the establishment of a library within the Vanak village neighborhood of Tehran. The study employs a theoretical framework grounded in the human-environment perspective, focusing on three key areas of intervention: changes in the local community, leisure opportunities, and reading behavior. The ensuing analysis encompasses the assessment of social, cultural, economic, and physical consequences. Methodologically, the study employs a two-fold approach, employing thematic analysis as the primary methodology, followed by a supplementary survey method. The negative aftermath of constructing the library primarily manifests in diminished street-level safety for patrons, reduced psychological comfort of neighbors, conflicts between neighbors and library patrons, and parking space challenges for residents. Conversely, the positive ramifications encompass enhanced accessibility to the library space, improved academic performance among students, increased prosperity of businesses neighboring the project, the fortification of institutional social capital through coupling school-library connections, mitigation of social harm, and heightened cultural awareness within the neighborhood. Lastly, to mitigate adverse consequences and amplify positive effects, the study proposes four potential scenarios for future project developments: failure, compensation, welcome, and hope.