سناریونویسی

Peace education changes behavior and enables adults to avoid conflicts and violence and resolve them peacefully by focusing on indices such as knowledge, skills, and attitudes. University is an important organization that plays a significant role in education and creating sustainable values in society..

The research method was qualitative and according to the quasi-numerical or judgmental approach in the field of futures research methods. The measurement tools included authentic domestic and foreign articles, field studies and documents, and were based on the development of questionnaires in two stages using the Delphi technique. This Delphi Panel methodology consisted of 20 education and communication experts in educational sciences and humanities, and they were selected by the researchers using a judgmental method. The matrix of cross-impact analysis coefficients was used with the help of MICMAC software for structural analysis.

The research findings, including 94 primary codes or indices and 11 components indicated that cultural, environmental, educational, and media factors had the highest effects on cultural intelligence, and thus four scenarios were developed, namely human dignity based on peace education, symbolic and unstable peace education, hegemony or the collapse of the education system, and peace education as the basis of global citizenship education.

Futures research can forecast the future of peace education with the greatest accuracy and the least uncertainty. The future forecast of peaceful education can reduce conflicts at schools, universities, and other educational institutions and lead society towards sustainable growth and development.

In today's world, the development of a creative city is crucial for economic growth due to its role as a hub for sociological platforms and its growing importance. This study aims to analyze the concept of the creative city using a futurist approach based on scenario writing, with a focus on Chabahar. The research is applied in nature and descriptive-analytical in method. The study's statistical population consists of 22 experts from the management organizations of Chabahar and urbanism faculty members. The sampling method used was purposive and stratified. Data were collected through library research, and the primary tool for data collection was a closed-type questionnaire. To analyze the creative city concept with a futuristic approach in Chabahar, the Delphi technique and Wizard software were employed. The analysis of 35 indicators using the Delphi method revealed that the status of influential indicators in the creative city of Chabahar is undesirable, with a particular emphasis on futurism. Most indicators scored below the average value of 3, with 14 of the 35 indicators being disadvantaged and 11 showing some disadvantages. In step 16, the main indicator was selected and analyzed under three scenarios (lack of attention, continuation of current trends, and improvement) using Wizard scenario software. Five possible future scenarios for Chabahar’s creative city were proposed, indicating that the management and development of the city are influenced by changes in these factors and drivers. Recognizing the key components contributing to Chabahar's creativity will aid in shaping desirable future outcomes. It is hoped that by evaluating and analyzing the creative city, city managers and planners will be able to navigate Chabahar's development strategically, leveraging its available capacities and competitive advantages.

The club is the most effective and fundamental sports organization in Iran. It has been nearly two decades since Iran's sports have progressed towards becoming professional, but according to the reviews, it seems that it is far from becoming professional. This research has a qualitative, descriptive and exploratory nature and deals with research on the future of the workforce in the sports industry and related issues. The current research is qualitative in terms of generality, according to the scenario writing process. In this research, Peter Schwartz's scenario writing approach has been used. the studied community; There are experts such as sports marketing professors, CEOs of Premier League clubs and league organizations, and the criterion of theoretical saturation in this method ended the number of interviews. structural analysis approach and Micmac software were used to identify the status of mutual effects of revenue generating variables of Premier League football clubs in a 10-year horizon. It should be noted that Scenario Wizard calculation software was used to facilitate the use of this method. The analysis of the findings showed that only 4 components of the total of 24 issues of effective influence on the system are the key drivers of the future revenue generation of Premier League clubs. The reason for the low revenue generation in the clubs of the Premier Football League of Iran; Not allowing Radio to sell matches to foreign media networks is the monopoly of Radio and the absence of private media networks.

The purpose of this research was to investigate the relationship between family members in the post-corona period based on the goals of developing a successful and healthy family in the horizon of 1410 and in accordance with Setir's point of view and the use of future research and scenario writing techniques. Scenario writing first started and developed in the military field, and then it was used in other sciences. This research is of a qualitative type and the statistical population of the research was experts, and 12 experts were selected using the purposeful sampling method and they cooperated in advancing the research goals at different times. The tool used in this research was a semi-structured interview, which was determined by the use of Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software, and by using the statistical methods of mutual analysis and scenario writing, the communication scenarios of family members in the post-corona period. The results of the research showed that in the horizon of 1410 successful and healthy families and in line with Satir's point of view, there are eight scenarios in the field of relationships between family members, which include four strong scenarios (positive communication, respecting privacy, communicating with family and friends, and practicing skills positive thinking) and four possible scenarios (effective interactions, supporting each other, setting goals and planning and practicing communication skills).

Today, achieving professional development of school principals is one of the most important goals of education in all developed countries and most developing countries.

The aim of this study was to provide Optimal scenarios for the professional development of primary school principals in 2025 Horizon northwestern provinces of the Iran.

This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature, based on new methods of Future studies, analysis and exploration, which uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative models in the form of documentary and survey methods and in two stages of identifying key drivers using software Mic Mac is based on the method of Cross Impact Analysis and presenting the Optimal scenarios using the scenario Wizard software. The statistical population included professors, experts and specialists in the field of educational Administration in the northwestern provinces of the Iran. The sample size was 12 people which was continued by purposeful sampling and snowball sampling until data saturation.

the results of the application of cross - impact analysis method showed that 15 key factors among the 52 factors identified in the interview stage, have the greatest impact on the future of professional development of principals. By preparing the basket of scenarios for these factors, 45 possible situations are defined for 15 factors.

With the formation of matrix 45*45 and with the analysis performed by Scenario Wizard software, 11 strong scenarios, 29 plausible scenarios and 39 weak scenarios were extracted.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the drivers of effective evaluation of industrial development policies using a futuristic approach.

The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of data collection and exploratory approach. The statistical population of the present study includes experts and specialists in political-making and economics, which has been select by the method of snowball. Library studies containing 36 variables of propellants were used to identify the drivers and the MicMac questionnaire was used to collect data. In addition, MicMac software and scenario wizard have been use to analyze the data.

By entering the data obtained from the experts' response in MicMac software, out of 36 propellants, 19 propellants were identified as the best variables. In addition, to evaluate the future of the evaluation of industrial development policies, for 19 main drivers, favorable to unfavorable situations were designed as possible scenarios and then referred to the relevant experts. Findings from the analysis of existing scenarios, 8 main scenarios were identified.

Research results in MicMac method, Stakeholder, Problem-oriented, Innovation, Judgment, Value, political competencies, Action commitment, Social competence, Acceptability, Comprehensiveness, Perceptual and analytical competencies, Based on rationality, Efficiency and effectiveness, Test, Participation, Technical competence and goal orientation variables were identified as the main variables. Also, in the scenario writing method, eight important scenarios were identified that the first, second and fourth scenarios were the best scenarios.

One of the successful models of managing security issues is the organization and design of the basic people's security model in times of crisisThis model is derived from the theory of mobilizing resources and commanlty to deal with security challenges, which coincides with the victory of the Islamic Revolution Born in Iran and after being tested in the face of hard and soft threats, Today as a efficient and reliable security reference model in the geography of the axis of has expanded.Hashd al-Shaabi, in addition to playing a role in ensuring the stability and security of Iraq after two decades of political instability in this country and overcoming the Salafi-Takfiri terrorism of ISIS, has today become one of the sides of the axis of Islamic resistance and a strategic role in the future of the axis of resistance will perform. By understanding the necessity and importance of the position of the Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq and the axis of resistance, the question arises, what scenarios can be drawn for the future of the Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq? The upcoming research, by using the method of analyzing the structure and strategy of actors and the tool of expert questionnaire and data analysis through Mektor software, seeks to achieve the future scenarios of Hashd al-Shaabi in Iraq. Based on the interests of the actors and the convergence and divergence between them one can be imagine the possible scenario, the probable scenario and the desired scenario for this organization in Iraq.

The present study aims to apply a scenario-writing approach to forecast the future of professional ethics within Iran’s business ecosystem by the horizon of 2031. This research is applied in nature and combines documentary and survey methods, drawing upon new analytical and exploratory methods in futures studies. The target population includes managers of business enterprises and academic experts specializing in professional ethics and business. Initially, through library studies and an expert panel, the study identifies trends impacting professional ethics within Iran's business ecosystem by 2031. Subsequently, these trends undergo refinement through a two-stage Delphi method, followed by the identification of ten key factors using structural analysis. Finally, scenarios were generated to outline possible futures for professional ethics in Iran’s business landscape. For data analysis, SPSS, MICMAC, and Scenario Wizard software were utilized. The analysis yielded 2,857 combined scenarios, of which 15 were categorized as strong or likely, 19 as plausible, and 23 as weak. Among the probable scenarios, the findings indicated that most influential indicators on the future of professional ethics in Iran’s business ecosystem by 2031 are in a critical state. This study outlines four primary scenarios for the future of professional ethics in Iranian business: "Justice in Flux," "Local Management, Global Market," "Survival in the Dark Ages," and "National Engagement, Global Resistance." The results highlight that key factors, such as legal transparency, government oversight, international relations, and strengthening of local values, play a vital role in either enhancing or weakening professional ethics and organizational commitment. Aligning with similar studies, these findings emphasize the importance of transparent policies, international interactions, and cultural identity reinforcement, and recommend a balanced approach for managers and policymakers to improve ethical standards and business sustainability.

This article, titled "The Future of Media Management in Light of the Impact of Artificial Intelligence and New Media on Religion," has been written to address a novel topic. Given the significant advancements in the field of artificial intelligence and new media technologies, the role and impact of these two factors on religion and media management are of high importance. This research aims to achieve effective and useful results for individuals and organizations involved in media management by addressing the mentioned issues.Research

The research employs a qualitative method using future scenario writing to explore the impact of artificial intelligence and new media on religion and the future of media management. Discussing its challenges will also assist media managers in finding the best strategies for utilizing artificial intelligence and new media in media management, thereby contributing to knowledge development in this area.

Based on the findings, with the rapid and increasing growth of technology in the near future, it seems we will witness an interdependence and influence among media. In other words, we will observe the impact and utilization of this technology (artificial intelligence) in most information sources and communication channels for transmitting various types of messages (both religious and non-religious) to target audiences through different media channels.

Ultimately, this article aims to provide guidance for future media managers by examining and referencing the applications or functions of artificial intelligence across various media industries, while also suggesting recommendations for other researchers.

Introduction :

In recent decades, the rapid growth of urbanisation has brought problems, one of which is the intensification of the rate of physical-spatial changes and the inefficiency of urban tissues. This process of population increase, a decline of social status, and disorder in the spatial-physical, economic and functional organisation in urban neighbourhoods that play an essential role in the life and decay of the city brought along this intermediate neighbourhood of Khajeh Rabi in Mashhad; it is one of the neighbourhoods that in recent decades has been associated with issues such as poverty, physical and social erosion, and a decrease in the standard of living. have not had their quality of life, the existence of one of the most important cemeteries in the city will also lead to the possibility of abandonment and degradation of the quality of this fabric, for this reason, the implementation of a comprehensive and sustainable plan for the regeneration of this neighbourhood to improve the quality of life of the residents is essential. Is. Therefore, this research has been carried out to present scenarios of urban regeneration in the Khajeh Rabi neighbourhood in Mashhad until 2033 and compile strategies for realising urban regeneration in the Khajeh Rabi neighbourhood.

The research method in this study is descriptive-analytical and based on documentary and library studies. For this purpose, the research variables are collected in the theoretical foundations section. With the method of structural analysis (in this method, the influence and effectiveness of the research variables according to the scoring range from 0 to 3, where 0 means no impact, one means weak impact, two means moderate impact, three means high impact and p means potential direct and indirect impact) were ranked. After that, the statistical population was selected from the elite group with a sample size of 20 people from among urban planning experts, the municipality of Region Three, university professors and doctoral students, and with surveys conducted in the form of a cross-effects matrix questionnaire, the influencing variables were identified, and The key drivers were selected from variables with high impact and uncertainty. In the next step, with the interviews conducted with 10 people from the experts of the 22 Bahman Facilitation Office in Mashhad, the possible states of the key drivers and the existing situation were identified, and compatible scenarios were determined using the method of interaction analysis in the scenario wizard. Finally, by identifying the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats that show the current situation and the resulting scenarios, using the SWOT model, the strategies for realising the desired scenario and controlling the disaster scenario were determined.

The findings in Mikmak show that the data has 74% validity, and the distribution of variables in the effect-direct dependence map indicates the existence of an unstable system in the field of regeneration in the Khajeh Rabi neighbourhood. Variables that are identified and predicted as key drivers in Mik Mak software can play a role in guiding the Khajeh Rabi neighbourhood system towards sustainability, including access to services, facilities and social facilities, equipment and infrastructure; the type of development is the network of roads, investment in the process of renovation and improvement of the neighbourhood, the type of management, the type of planning, the type of participation of residents, the rules and regulations of neighbourhood regeneration and the implementation of the project. The findings in the wizard scenario in the output of the urban regeneration system network diagram of the Khajeh Rabi neighbourhood indicate that the drivers of investment in the renovation and improvement process, the type of residents’ participation and the rules and regulations of the neighbourhood’s regeneration are more important than other drivers in this neighbourhood. They are reliable and able to control the system effectively. The output of the compatible scenarios, the scenarios in two favorable groups with 289% compatibility include: including: access of all residents to services, facilities and social facilities, full development of neighborhood equipment and infrastructure, intermediate development and smart growth in the neighborhood, organization of the road network in All dimensions (traffic, asphalt, etc.)), the allocation of incentive packages for investment in the renovation and improvement process for all residents, good urban governance in the neighborhood regeneration plan, formulation of a comprehensive neighborhood regeneration plan, capacity building and institution building in all dimensions, monitoring the full implementation of neighborhood regeneration laws and regulations and the use of professional consultants in the formulation and implementation of the neighborhood and disaster regeneration plan with 356% compatibility, including: lack of attention to access to services, facilities and social facilities, lack of development of neighborhood equipment and infrastructure, scattered growth and unplanned growth, lack of Incentive packages, top-down planning, failure to formulate a comprehensive redevelopment plan, lack of capacity building and institution building, lack of monitoring of neighborhood redevelopment laws and regulations, and failure to implement redevelopment plan.

The results show that the creation of cultural, leisure and sports spaces, such as the construction of a library and park for all residents to access social services, facilities and facilities, the use of barren lands and investment to create tourist places and the creation of commercial and branding centres near the tomb of Khajeh Rabi For intermediate development and smart growth in the neighbourhood, high-quality flooring of sidewalks With the support of the municipality to organise the road network, the support of the private and public sector in the construction of houses and giving loans to the people and investing in creating new jobs in the neighbourhood, for the allocation of incentive packages and the renovation and improvement of the neighbourhood for all residents, spatial justice in handling the neighbourhood by the municipality. For good urban governance, attracting investors’ participation through the granting of incentive points for the renovation of the neighbourhood for capacity building and institution building will be the most important strategies for the regeneration of the Khajeh Rabi area.

The Islamic Revolution in Iran profoundly transformed the regional dynamics of West Asia. Over the past few decades, Iran and Saudi Arabia, two major regional powers, have held fundamentally different and often conflicting ideologies, priorities, and goals for regional peace and stability (Zehraa et al., 2018). These differences became even more pronounced in 2010 and with the emergence of movements and uprisings known as the Islamic Awakening. While Iran supported these uprisings, the prospect of such movements extending into Saudi Arabia became a nightmare for its leaders and monarchy. Consequently, countering these uprisings became the top priority for the Saudi leadership. The two nations found themselves entangled in a complex web of suspicion and tension, which escalated over the subsequent years and ultimately led to the formal severance of diplomatic relations in 2016. Although the resumption of relations in 2023, after seven years, offers a glimmer of hope for a new chapter, it is essential to remain realistic and avoid excessive optimism or idealism. In fact, numerous challenges lie ahead for both nations, as deep-seated differences remain unresolved. For example, immediately after the reopening of embassies, the two countries faced new issues, including the Arash Gas Field and discussions about Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords. Normalizing relations is just the first step, and both nations now find themselves on the threshold of making crucial decisions about their future. After years of extensive tension and conflict, both sides are now sitting at the negotiation table. The potential for a new chapter marked by cooperation and understanding is within reach. Yet, can they break free from the current cycle of tension and discord? Will they continue their efforts to reduce tension? How may future global and regional events impact their measures? There are also other and relevant questions about the future of Iran–Saudi Arabia relations, so the future of their relations remains uncertain and ambiguous. The present study aimed to address the following questions: What are the possible scenarios for Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy towards the Islamic Republic of Iran in the 2030 horizons?

Literature Review:

Naderi and Tajik (2018) presented three scenarios for the future of Iran–Saudi relations: 1) the end of doubts (confrontation), 2) constructive chaos (support for the Axis of Resistance), and 3) stand-up fist (balance of power). They believe the likely scenarios are constructive chaos and stand-up fist. Dehghani-Firouzabadi et al. (2021) found that subjective, identity, and semantic factors (e.g., a lack of shared identity, perceived threats, and differing definitions of security) would significantly impact the relations between the two countries over the next decade. In The Saudi–Iranian Rivalry and the Future of Middle East Security, Terrill (2011) revealed that conflict and deep tension between the two countries have prevented the creation of link loops. In an article titled “Muting the Trumpets of Sabotage: Saudi Arabia, the US and the Quest to Securitize Iran,” Mabon (2017) claimed that Saudi would continue its efforts to reduce Iran’s regional influence. In “The Prospect of the Relationship Between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Saudi Arabia: Plausible Scenarios”, Diansaee and Yurtaev (2017) indicated that due to historical background and conflicting interests, the probable scenario governing the relations between the two countries would be one of tension and conflict. Likewise, Rostami et al. (2016) considered continued tensions and differences as the likely future scenario for Iran–Saudi relations.The studies reviewed above are predominantly characterized by deep pessimism, leading to reductionism. They also depicted tension and conflict as the only scenario, ignoring alternative futures or surprise endings. Moreover, they focused solely on near-term relations without clarifying Saudi Arabia’s perspective on Iran over the next seven years. To address these limitations, the current study took a balanced approach to examine Saudi Arabia’s future scenarios about Iran in the 2030 horizon.

The current study employed a future-oriented approach and the GBN technique to present scenarios about Iran–Saudi relations. Relying on Schwartz’s eight steps for developing and designing scenarios, the study identified the influential variables on the topic through documentary and field research, particularly interviews with experts. The key drivers were identified as those with higher average scores in the two components of importance and uncertainty. The calculation process was based on the geometric mean. The result was displayed in a 2-D matrix, with one dimension representing importance and the other representing uncertainty. In the next step, key uncertainties of each key driver were identified. The logic of the scenarios was then designed based on the intersection of the key drivers and their key uncertainties. The final scenarios were named, and the narrative for each was written.

The study examined and developed four scenarios for the future of Iran–Saudi relations. Each scenario briefly represents the factors and potential tensions between the two countries. In Scenario A, Saudi Arabia moves towards reducing tension and fostering cooperation with Iran, pursuing a balancing strategy with Chinese assistance. In Scenario B, Saudi Arabia enters a phase of heightened tension amidst the conflict with Iran, fueled by the U.S. and Israel. In Scenario C, while Saudi Arabia emphasizes tensions, China plays a constructive role in a détente between the two countries. In Scenario D, Saudi Arabia relies on soft diplomacy to reduce tensions with Iran.

According to the research findings and evidence, Scenario A emerges as the most probable. The rationale is that Scenario C and Scenario D exhibit internal inconsistencies. Additionally, Scenario B is undesirable for both countries, as prolonged tensions and conflicts could initiate a new cycle of disputes and hostilities. Currently, both countries strive for strategic stability and acknowledge their roles in regional equilibrium.

The war between Russia and Ukraine (since 2022),in addition to the extensive consequences for both countries,hasnot spared other governments at the regional and international level from its economic,political,geopolitical andgeostrategic consequences.For the Islamic Republic of Iran,which is considered an influential actor inthe region,the occurrence of the aforementioned war has created opportunities and challenges that can continue and enter in new stages if the existing scenarios about the future of this war are realized.The main question that this article tries to answer is,what consequences will these scenarios have forthe Islamic Republic of Iran?According tothe hypothesis ofthe research,considering the close relations between Iran and Russia on the one hand,and the dark relations between Iran and the West,as well as Iran's positions in the Ukraine war,on the other hand,the realization ofany of the possible scenarios can affect Iran’s politics,economy and position inthe international system.The purpose of this article is toexplain the effects of some possible scenarios about the Ukrainian war on Iran in the form of scenario writing and through the descriptive-analytical method.Based on the findings of the research,Iran's previous positions in the Russia-Ukraine warand its entry into thenew phase of cooperation with Russia will affect the intensity and weaknessofthe realization ofthe mentioned scenarios.

The main purpose of this study is long-term planning of urban prosperity of Dogonbadan through Intra-urban and intra-regional planning. The present research method is based on structural analysis and quasi-mathematical approach. The statistical population of the study is all experts and specialists who have full expertise on urban development, urban prosperity and futures research and scenario writing approach. The sampling method is purposive sampling and 35 experts who are experts were selected as the sample. The main tools for data analysis are Future Research Software (MicMac) based on Cross Effect Analysis and Scriptwriting Software (MorPhol) based on Inertial Morphological Analysis. The results show that the urban prosperity of Dogonbadan is based on 14 drivers, including; (Science and Technology Corridor, Free Trade Zone, Water Resources, Public Sports, Logistics Hub, Worn Tissue, Innovation and Creativity, Industrial Production Technology, Air Pollution, Waste Management, Natural Hazards, Passive Defense, Oil Related Industries and Gas and political-economic developments in the world and the region). The results also show that the main approach of Dogonbadan urban prosperity is based on the strategy of creating a free trade zone and paying attention to the infrastructure of the region and increasing services and facilities.

Reminiscent of a great, historic sacrifice, Arbaeen manifests a global opportunity for reinforcing Islamic beliefs. With millions of participants flocking from various places in the world, it has long turned into one of the massive marches in the world. As such, it deserves detailed plans, with a view to its global implications.

The present study aimed at investigating and designing a model for developing sports tourism in Iran.

The research methodology applied is combined of both qualitative and quantitative ones. In the qualitative part, open interviews were done with 12 professors and experts in the field of sports who were selected based on a snowball- judgmental method. The data were collected through considering the previous studies and conducting open interviews. In the part devoted to the quantitative study, expert-qualifier and matrix questionnaires were used. In order to assess the face and content validity of the tools and hypotheses, the findings of the study were given to the participants and after they studied the text of the theories, their comments were collected and applied. Results from expert-qualifier questionnaire showed that 15 key factors affect sport tourism in Iran.

Among all the factors, those of local considerations and international relations had the greatest effects on sport tourism. Based on these and the two major factors, 4 different scenarios were presented for the future of sport tourism in Iran; resilient development, the darkness of sport tourism, fragile development and ideal development. According to the ideal development which shows the best possible state for sport tourism, a very proper condition for it would be provided through overcoming international restraints and devising plans based on local and regional capacities. The darkness of sport tourism shows the worst state for it and can only come about due to foreign pressures and restrictions and lack of national efforts for advancing the conditions of sport tourism.

Finally, it is suggested that through identifying the best scenario, it would be possible to make necessary plans in order for the sport tourism to thrive and expand in Iran.

As the center of developments on local, regional, national, and global scales, and the site of influential actors, Tehran's metropolitan area has long been a stage for political power dynamics. Additionally, the presence of geopolitical drivers has further elevated its position in power relations. The central question of this research was this: What are the drivers and future scenarios of power relations in Tehran Metropolis? This was an applied research study with an exploratory nature. To answer the research question, indicators were extracted through a multi-stage interview process involving 30 elite experts and an elite panel. The Delphi method was also used to screen the propellants. The data were analyzed using the MicMac and Scenario Wizard software. The research results revealed 45 possible situations across 7 scenarios with strong and likely compatibilities. Based on the scenario table of geopolitical drivers affecting the future of power relations in Tehran Metropolis, 33.33% were in a favorable situation, 41.6% were in a semi-favorable situation, and 25% were in a static situation. The 1st and 2nd scenario boards were the most prominent in terms of position.

Today, the Resilience of Cities against Natural Hazards has become one of the important topics in Urban Management. On the other hand, paying attention to this issue from the point of view of future research has made it easier to plan to improve the future situation, therefore, The main goal of the present study Providing a model for increasing the resilience of the city of Konark against the Risks caused by Tropical Storms and It is with the approach Futures Studies. The Current Research is applied in terms of its purpose and Exploratory in its Nature, Two Documentaries and Field method have been used to collect data and information. The Statistical Population of this research included Relevant Experts and elites, who according to the objectives of the research and to achieve the desired model with a Future research approach through interviews with elites and experts and using a non-random purposeful sampling method (in a predetermined manner) done), and finally the Number of 15 People was obtained. In order to identify the key Driving Force, Structural analysis method (interaction effects) in the form of MICMAC Software was also used for Scenario writing using Scenario Wizard Software. The findings of the research showed that the Driving Force of "Surface Water Collection Channel" will have the most influence through their alternative futures (probable state) on other Driving Force in Determining the futures, and the Driving Force of "Changing the Structure of Organizations" Based on the Relationship of Alternative Futures, it has received the most influence from other alternative Futures. Also, the Driving Force of Flood Zoning Map, "Early Warning System of Natural Hazards and (GIS) and It has been Alternative futures of .that part Intermittent propellants

Given the technological advancements and social, economic, and political issues, the social status of the auditing profession faces challenges in the future. This study adopts a futures research perspective and employs environmental scanning and scenario writing methods to examine the future social status of the auditing profession in Iran over a 20-year horizon. The research is a mixed-methods study that is descriptive and analytical in nature. The major trends and driving forces affecting the future social status of the auditing profession in Iran were derived from the study by Sadighi et al. (2023). Through the distribution of questionnaires to 25 experts in the field of auditing in 2023, the study aimed to assess the significance and critical uncertainties through interactive effects analysis. In total, 35 driving forces were identified and categorized based on the STEEP method into two groups: internal factors (users of auditing services and the auditing profession) and external factors (political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental). Ultimately, four scenarios (Dream City, Melodies of Solidarity, Song of Silence, and Dark Winter) were developed for the future social status of auditors based on three key drivers: the state of social trust in Iranian society, economic and political instability, and community participation in the capital market. Recommendations were provided for each scenario to address the challenges facing the future of the auditing profession. The results of this research can contribute to analyzing future challenges related to the social status of the auditing profession and identifying potential solutions.

A significant part of the world community has accepted sustainable development as a smart framework to prevent future challenges. This flow started from the field of environment and now it has become a global trend that has been placed on the agenda of countries in the form of global obligations. Different governance approaches, global requirements, the role of multiple actors, etc., create countless ambiguities and uncertainties in the future of Iran's sustainable development. Therefore, in this research, using the methods of future studies, the future scenarios of Iran's sustainable development in the horizon of 2032 are formulated and prioritized, and policy recommendations related to the priority scenarios are proposed. In order to determine and categorize the factors, from the layered analysis model of the causes, to determine the uncertainties from the mutual effects analysis matrix, to develop the scenarios from the layered scenario development method and ranking the scenarios using the model proposed by the authors. Four key uncertainties including the basic approach in governance, global commitments, security and general policies were determined. The main scenarios with the names Farar Az Zendan, Simorgh Koh Qaf, Dasthay Baste and Khab Bija were recognized as the most likely and believable scenarios for the future of Iran's sustainable development. In the end, the strengthening of introverted popular institutions, the formation of parallel international and regional coalitions, the implementation of general policies, the maintenance and promotion of stable security, and the establishment of integrated management were suggested as policy recommendations.