جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « futurology » در نشریات گروه « علوم سیاسی »

The present study aims to show the similarities and differences of the 18 sub-fields related to each of the six concepts of futures studies, foresight, futurology, future thinking, futurism and future mining by studying and comparing the topics investigated in the scientific productions of futures studies (in its general sense). The methods of collecting information and the method of analysis are scientific and specialized library research. Data analysis was done using Excel software. The results show that the highest frequency of articles in the field of futures studies is urban and regional 205 articles, religious and religious 128 articles, and defense and military 102 articles. In addition, the highest rate of growth of articles in the studied fields is in 2022. The results of this research are in line with the comparison of the frequency of scientific articles published in the six studied concepts related to the future in the fifteen-year period of 2008 to 2022, and the results of the analysis show that the highest frequency of articles is related to the concept of futures studies with 822 and foresight with 279 respectively. The research title is dedicated. In addition, the highest growth of articles in these fifteen years is for the concept of futures studies.

The purpose of the present study is to identify likely structures for the future international system and to understand their effectiveness on Iran’s opportunities and limitations. The methodology of the present research is qualitative that has used a futurologist scenario to identify likely structures of the international system. The main research question is: what are scenarios that can change the international system and what will be their consequences and effects on Iran’s relations and acting? The research results show that the occurrence of the scenario of a multipolar international system is more likely than a bipolar or unipolar one. In each scenario, countries have 3 general options: companionship including union or following, competition including creating balance, tolerating the challengers, and adopting an opposition policy towards the existing pole or poles in the world. The scenario of a multipolar world will bring the most capabilities and opportunities for Iran while the unipolar scenario led by the U.S will increase Iran’s limitations. On the other hand, the bipolar scenario compared to the unipolar one led by the U.S enhances Iran’s opportunities. Iran’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will assist Iran to create more opportunities to meet its national interests through the bipolar scenario revolving around the U.S and China.

In planning and managing of tourism development using modern methods is highly important. One of these new methods is the use of the future-research method and the use of different scenarios for the development of tourism, which by using these methods tries to draw different futures according to the key effective factors for the development of Zanjan tourism. The purpose of the current research is future research and scenario planning in the development and improvement of the tourism industry in City of Zanjan based on the method of cross-effects analysis. It is exploratory and based on future-research and scenario planning. In this research, in order to find key factors, available documents, library documents and semi-open interviews were used, and after identifying the components, MIC MAC and Scenario Wizard software were used to analyze and prioritize the factors. Analysis of 13 factors were selected as key factors. These 13 factors respectively are: urban integrated management, implementing encouraging policies, decreasing the constraints, internal security, private sector, citizen participation, NGOs, urban branding, strategic location of the city, the international role of the city and province, enhancing environmental awareness, economic growth rate, religious and ritual events, qualitative and quantitative development of handicrafts. The 13 factors were used to write the scenarios. Consequently by using experts opinions and setting up panels, 46 desirable to undesirable cases could be classified and finally 4 scenarios with high compatibility for the city of Zanjan identified. 3 scenarios were in desirable situation and one in critical situation for the city of Zanjan was imaginable. At the end in order to pass through the critical situation to desirable situation strategies and plans were suggested.

The purpose of this study is to provide a framework to explain the role of the University of Applied Sciences in the development of future careers with a futures research approach. In the present study, retrospective and Delphi methods have been used as futures research methods and structural equation methods to present the model. Therefore, at first, with the retrospective approach, two scenarios of Karafarin University and meeting the needs of local communities were selected as future scenarios or prospects of a comprehensive scientific-applied university. It should be noted that the reason for choosing the above scenarios is the overlap of these scenarios with the upstream documents of the country such as the document of strategic transformation of science and technology, document of Islamic University, comprehensive scientific map of the country, general policies of science and technology, 20-year vision document and general policies The system is for the development of science and technology. Then, using the Delphi method, the job characteristics required for holding future jobs and the educational approaches of universities to develop competencies were identified and extracted. Also, the results of the present study showed that the current situation of the University of Applied Sciences based on the required fields and skills and future jobs is not desirable. Finally, the model of explaining the role of the University of Applied Sciences in developing future jobs The structure was approved and fitted.

The purpose of this study is to identify possible scenarios in the future of modern Islamic civilization.

The method used in this research is the mixed method. This method is a combination of techniques for analyzing trends and drivers, cross-matrix matrix, questionnaire and scenario writing. The statistical population includes university professors and specialists in the field of Islamic civilization and the sample size was selected using the Cochran's formula.

The findings of the research are the identification of three scenarios. In the first scenario, Islamic civilization will experience a decline and collapse and will be in a state of weakness and passivity. In the second scenario, Islamic civilization will be in a stable state and there will be no progress or decline. In the third scenario, Islamic civilization will experience progress and development and will change dramatically. This scenario has been identified as a strong and likely scenario due to its high compatibility value.

If the components affecting the Islamic civilization are in a harmonious situation, in the future, the new Islamic civilization affected by these components will ascend and progress.

Western Asia is a region which has no more peace in it and always has disputes and conflict and everyday it has unpredictable occurrences. Assassinating of a representative of a country in another country by a third country, the Beirut explosion, governmental and non-governmental terorism, multiple vicarious wars, etc, all are just a part of what happened in this important era. Future study of science and art are realization and construction of the future with the help of study of changes and change makers in order to maximize the interests of the actor, and scenario writing is an important method which provides description of alternative futures which saves decision makers from strategic surprise. The present study in the point of subject is “applied” and the scenario is written by exploratory mixed method and is based on Global Business Network “GBN”. Data has been gathered by library and internet sources and they gathered by library catalog cards and the statistical population of this study included 15 experts. This study aims to extract future scenarios of possible threat for Western Asia on the horizon of 1404. Based on the result of this research two key uncertainties which are “military and armed conflict” and “regional military nuclei'' led to write scenarios which three significant scenarios are named "Burning Hell", "Wandering Ghosts" and "Peace before the Storm". Codification and strategies for confrontation with possible threats for Iran including expanding advisory activities, increasing diplomatic activities, rational supporting the resistance movement, and confronting the coalition of marginalized Arab countries with zionist regime and economic development.

While at the beginning of the century, the European Union was considered as one of the most important patterns of regional convergence, faced with several crises over the past decade. These crises have caused doubt on the future of the European Union. This article seeks to answer the question, what are the scenarios for the EU in the 2050 perspective? 4 scenarios have been posed in response to the question. The Ideal World is probable scenario. In this scenario, the volume of the union's investment in different parts of the world, the development of key technologies, the increase of economic relations with other actors of the international system, the organization's influence in the regions with the most gas resources, gold, etc., including Africa and Eurasia are considered as drivers Which will turn the union into a major economic-political power in 2050. The theoretical framework of the article is Institutionalism. Futures research methods are scenario writing (GBN) and Mactor. In addition, expert panels and Brainstorming sessions are used to collect data. About the structure of the article, it should be noted that, at first theoretical framework (Institutionalism) is addressed and then the most important actors are identified based on the Mactor and in the third step, the scenarios are extracted based on the GBN method.

The purpose of the present study is to review the most important impediments to transition to democracy in the Islamic Republic of Iran in the 5th decade with a futuristic approach. Among different methods of futurology, analysis of the selected process with a qualitative approach was used in this research. The research population was composed of a selection of academic experts in the subject of political transition and the sample size was determined by theoretical consecutive sampling. Data collection instrument was a semi-structured interview that reached theoretical saturation by doing 16 interviews. The results showed that some factors such as structural and normative integrity between the dominant elites, weak civil society, lack of economic prerequisites, and a rentier state are among the most important impediments to peaceful transition to democracy and strengthening that in the 5th decade of the revolution. These obstacles in front of democracy in the 5th decade of the revolution have a social and structural nature that decelerate the process of peaceful advancement to democracy and strengthening that by an accumulative effect on each other as well as on the political structure and cause that transition to democracy in the 5th decade of the revolution does not proceed with an expected speed.

Having sufficient information and knowledge about the pandemic situation of (SARS-CoV-2) is one of the most effective evidence-based policy factors in controlling this destructive phenomenon in countries. Proper and timely interventions are essential for conscious control of the disease outbreak. This article examines governmental interventions (logistical, economic, security) and strategic health (4T) and behavioral interventions in different countries' pre-vaccine and post-vaccination eras. It considers vaccination the most critical and influential intervention.  However, Non-Pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) should be continued for at least one year after the complete vaccination of the target population. It is noteworthy that the development of new mutations and escape from the vaccine has raised many concerns for continued control of the disease. The research method in this article is based on the Scope review of scientific literature to find the main sources and key concepts in recognizing various governmental interventions and NPIs in the world and modelling a novel intervention formula with a futuristic approach in pandemic disease control. Based on the studies conducted and the disease trend in different parts of the world, this article presents the sine wave-based point-contingency intervention model for controlling Covid-19 disease in Iran and similar countries.

Increasing the water consumption, climate change, and water resource management inefficiencies in many South-west Asian countries have been associated with threats to water security, intensified rivalry, and hydro-political tensions. In the meantime, a large part of the Zionist regime's territory is justified in connection with access to the water resources of the peripheral countries. However, over the past decade and a half, the change in the compatible management model to water scarcity and advanced water desalination technology has put the regime in a position to be a pioneer in the field and supply of new water technology in addition to meeting its water needs. Meanwhile, other actors are facing serious problems in this regard. According to the authors, the regional foreign policy of the Zionist regime, based on the hydro-political considerations, has led to redefining the role of this regime in the region; in a way that a new territory can be defined based on it.

It seems that the 1400 presidential election can be considered a turning point in the path of the Islamic Republic and an important change in the electoral participation process. The results of the 13th presidential election in Iran were announced in a situation where official statistics indicate that this period, in terms of electoral investment, was one of the least successful election periods in the history of the Islamic Republic .During this period, Seyyed Ebrahim Ra'isi was elected by the people as the eighth president of Iran by winning a majority of votes 48.8% of those who participate in the elections participate. Therefore, in terms of quantity, this popular turnout is the lowest social participation in all periods of the Iranian presidential election since the beginning of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this regard, in order to answer the question "What are the reasons for the decrease in the participation of the Iranian people in the 1400 presidential elections compared to previous periods and what will be the future of the electoral behavior of Iranian citizens?", This study tries to Milbrath's theoretical framework, the most important causes of this event and the popular approach should be examined and based on Schwartz's theoretical approach, the future of people's electoral behavior should be designed in the form of scenarios. Obviously, the non-participation of the people in the 1400 elections can include many factors such as health issues and the Corona crisis, political issues such as the disapproval of some representatives and other cultural and social categories. However, this research, knowing the range of reasons presented in many scientific circles, in order to commit to Milbrath's theoretical framework, is only in line with his three desired levels, namely "social status", "environmental stimuli" and "characteristics". "Personality" will address the reasons for the decline in electoral participation.

Methodologically, the present study is descriptive-analytical with the approach of "matching theory with case" and "theory-case test". Collection of information and data required in this research in a documentary manner (library and receipt), use of works, research and articles available on the Internet and news agencies and scientific reports is valid. This research is practical in terms of purpose, because with the results obtained through it, while gaining knowledge of the roots of meaningful behavior of the Iranian people in the 1400 presidential election, it can be used to meet the basic needs, expectations and demands of citizens. And finally used to improve electoral participation.

The findings of the present study in order to explain the reasons for the decrease in popular participation in the 1400 presidential elections and the future of citizens' electoral behavior can be considered in two parts, which are: And 2- Scenarios leading to the electoral behavior of the Iranian people based on Schwartz's theory. In explaining political participation, Milbrath examines various factors in the form of three environmental stimuli, social status and personality. According to him, categories such as belonging to an organization is one of the main factors in involving citizens in political activities and access to information. Obviously, one of the most important organizations in the current transition and developed countries are the parties, while with a history of more than forty years in the Republic of Iran, the parties still have many problems in nurturing and producing political people.According to Milbrath, personality categories such as sociality and extroversion are effective in motivating citizens to enter politics. This is while one of the most important personality traits of the Iranian people is unpredictability. On the other hand, when these people are on the eve of the intense news of the internal and external opposition, they are largely passive. But another factor that Milbrath points to, and more than any other category in the current situation, is tangible for the Iranian people; Social status is based on indicators such as income, social status and class status. It seems that high inflation, unemployment of citizens, especially university graduates, reduction of welfare and increase of living problems; It has increased dissatisfaction with the current situation and, in addition to having a direct impact on increasing the number of invalid ballots, has also had an impact on popular electoral participation in general. Over the past decade, the existence of an unfavorable and passive macroeconomic program and strategy in large and pervasive areas such as industry, mining, housing, and in general tangible production and uncertainty in the areas of livelihood, trade and business, the results of its poor performance. Has put it well in front of the citizens. The mentioned management results clearly and tangibly show the depth of unfavorableness and economic catastrophe that different angles of Iran's economy, from agriculture to mines, from oil to downstream industries, from inflation to unemployment, from stock exchange to exchange rate, from employment crisis to services to It has exposed deep inequalities between different classes of people. Thus, as the suffering of the people increased among the various strata of society, it was increasingly felt that the electoral process, and ultimately the rotation of the elites, would end the necessary capacity to improve their lives or address the country's major problems, such as strengthening economic spheres. It does not have a political stalemate and empowerment of civil society to fight corruption and inequality. With these interpretations based on Schwartz's theory, the thirteenth government and its supporters today see two solutions to deal with sanctions and domestic problems. One way is to negotiate and reduce or lift sanctions. According to the new government, experience has shown that the West wants not just a nuclear issue, they do not accept the ideology, regional policy and even the governing structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran, therefore, the 13th government is unlikely to succeed in negotiating with Western governments. But the second way is to use domestic capacities and forces to produce sanctioned goods and reduce and neutralize the effects of sanctions. Of course, this is the path that the thirteenth government will choose, and of course, if a binding and fair agreement with the European governments is possible, it will also consider negotiating the lifting of sanctions. Obviously, the government's success in these areas will return the electoral passion, especially for the next presidential election, to the Iranian youth and citizens. Surveys and statistical analyzes show that people are more dissatisfied with the economic dimension and their immediate demand to solve this problem .It is clear, then, that the closer the thirteenth government gets to this goal, the more likely it is to succeed in alleviating political boredom and frustration. This is while today the government sees a difficult way and many obstacles in front of solving the problems of the citizens; Obviously, if we do not succeed, we should not expect the enthusiastic presence of the people in the field of political participation in the future.

The results of the research, which has been obtained by descriptive-analytical method, show that according to the three components of "social status", "environmental stimuli" and "personality traits", Iranian citizens, in addition to the lack of parties and organizations laying the groundwork for participation. The political, and emotional features that had prevented their maximum presence through domestic and foreign opposition propaganda and media were significantly dissatisfied with important and influential problems such as inflation, class divisions, unemployment, and increasing economic and livelihood problems.The combination of these factors both fueled citizens' frustration with the current situation and reduced the effectiveness of the presidential election and the rotation of elites in solving problems in their eyes. According to Schwartz's theory, for the future of the electoral behavior of Iranian citizens, four scenarios can be imagined in the form of three types of future: Possible future: 1. The failure of the government's economic and social efforts, resulting in reduced electoral participation and increased frustration; 2- Increasing regional and international tensions, turning to resistance economy, not solving popular problems in the short term and as a result, lack of prosperity of people's electoral participation in the future and possible future: 1- Gradual transformation of non-electoral participation into habit.

This article discusses how to protect defense systems and counter US weapons and electronic warfare equipment on Horizon 1410 by the region's Islamic Resistance Group with the United States and its allies. The purpose of this study is to develop scenarios for the protection of defense systems and how to deal with them, along with determining how to invest in the defense industry and how to do it for optimal defense against US electronic warfare equipment with emphasis on the most effective methods of defense and confrontation. . In this study, first, the perspective of US e-warfare in military capabilities was extracted from a document published by the US Department of Defense and the monitoring of existing trends by e-warfare experts using experts using 154 trends in 9 major trends. Then, by Delphi method, important trends with high probability of occurrence were counted. Finally, 18 scenarios were obtained with Scenario Wizard software and different defense methods for each of these descriptors, the most effective methods were selected in the form of compatible scenarios. The research proposal is a priority for investing in these defense methods. In other words, with this research, د the defensive measures that affect the most threats have been obtained. The purpose of this study is to develop electronic defense protection scenarios with emphasis on the most prioritized and effective defense methods in order to achieve maximum efficiency in the field of technology.

The purpose of the present research is to answer to this main question that what are the effective guidelines for the realization of the purposes of political training based on the Fundamental Transformation Document of Education (FTDE)? A mixed (qualitative-quantitative) method was used in this study with the purpose of futurology through the Delphi technique relying on prediction and forecasting structure. The results showed that increasing the motivation and awareness of teachers for optimal service and effective participation in implanting the social-political objectives of Transformation Document (TD) as well as improving qualifications such as observing the law, responsibility, social-political participation, and respecting social values in line with the formation of a decent society and its continual development based on Islamic criterion should be taken into account. Therefore, the management of political training and skill learning should move on in line with proper cooperation with the government and other civil and political institutions, wise approach to social transformations and making use of training and intelligent guidelines that create opportunities to provide the curriculum and political knowledge and insight as well as increasing the capability for political thinking and analysis, improving the motivation, and boosting the participation of the students in social-political activities throughout a gradual, ongoing, and systematic process.

The purpose of the present study is to survey legislation model in Islamic religion and Sharī’at to manage society based on the theory of constructional perceptions by Allāmah Tabātabā’ī. The method of study is descriptive analysis and the results showed that in terms of a human’s changing needs, Islam instead of a fixed law, has raised some principles by which Islamic scholars can gain awareness about the possible future and choose the optimal religious future. Within the framework of these principles and in line with time and place conditions, they can legislate proper, guiding, and felicity laws and structures to make a favorable future. These laws may differ from one place and time to another.

The aim of this study was to design a model for future research ability of education managers of the Social Security Organization. The orientation of this study is applied and developmental and its foundations are philosophical and interpretive.

This research has an inductive approach and in order to implement it, a qualitative method has been used. This study makes use of grounded theory and field strategy. Semi-structured interviews were used to collect data and purposive sampling method was used to select the sample. Sixteen of all social security managers and faculty members were interviewed and data were analyzed through pivotal, selective and open coding.

The results show that the future research ability of education managers requires factors such as organizational leadership, organizational structure, human resource management, futuristic culture, scenario writing, strategic planning, training development, facilities, futures management, participation of employees and eliminating factors such as unhealthy organizational climate and redundant bureaucracy to achieve organizational development of the Social Security Organization.

Future research capability of education managers requires attention to the culture of futurism, diversity, collectivism and leadership of the organization and futures research can be used as a supporter to draw and create the desired future. Stakeholders can use the ability of managers to study the future well to identify opportunities and overcome threats by predicting the future, which is very important in government organizations such as social security.

The phenomenon known as the political Islam is one of the most important phenomena affecting politics, security and culture in the contemporary world. Any fate that the political Islam faces will affect the politics, government, culture and security of Islamic countries, as well as the international arena. This influence on Iran, as the most prominent example of Shiite political Islam in power, is more determinant. Various events, trends and driving forces influence the political Islam evolutions. Futuristic methods can help to understand the trends and drivers of political Islam. The main purpose of the study is to outlin the probable futures of Shiite political Islam based on Velayah in Iran. In this study, with the methods of trend analysis, two-stage Delphi and a panel of experts, an attempt was made to identify the most important trends in Shiite political Islam based on Velayah in Iran and to identify the key driving forces. The results showed that the five drivers of "Iran's influence on the West Asian region", "The growth and development of the political Islam in the Islamic world", "The efficiency of the system of Irans government", "The issue of Palestine and Israel", and "The strength of the resistance front in the region and the victory of Irans allies" have the highest consensus and importance among experts, and determine the future of Shiite political Islam in Iran. By analyzing the events, the trends and the driving forces, it seems that in the future, the republic dimension in Iran will gradually become more prominent and its regional presence will be reinforced.

In the multipolar order of the Middle East regional security complex as one of the most important and, at the same time, the most tensional security complexes of the international system, Iran and Saudi Arabia, as the most important countries in this complex, play a huge role in developments within the region. Among these factors such as: ideological conflicts, geopolitical and geo-economic rivalry, different views of the US role in the region, different perceptions of the rule of religion, power and justice, etc. have led to the pattern of competition between the two countries. But this model can be transformed into other models of relations between the two countries due to various variables and have different consequences on the security order in the Middle East. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the future of Iran-Saudi Arabia political relations and its consequences on the Middle East regional order. The question of this study is: What will be the consequences of the evolution of the Iran-Saudi Arabia behavior pattern on this order? This research is a descriptive research with a futuristic approach and uses the script writing method.

The purpose of the present study is to survey the applications of futurology in public policy. To this aim, a descriptive-analytical method was used to explore the necessity of futurology as an interdisciplinary realm of study in political science, the applications of futurology in public policy as well as the differences between these two categories, the implementation methods of future studies in society, and their key objectives. The results showed that in general, futurology and policy are in line with each other but they have basic differences in their premises. In other words, if in public policy and planning we take futurology into account, much better efficient results will be achieved in the country because future studies and policy follow common objectives in their heart, that is to say, building a better future. If public policy in a country is organized based on the results of futurologists’ research, it will have tremendous contribution to the development and performance of the organizations within society. Future research in political studies is the outcome of fundamental values. It means that futurology should originate from basic norms. Although these norms involve people’s beliefs and ideas, they need to turn into a form of general and prevailing law in order to be considered fundamental values.

The Islamic Revolution in 1978 was a turning point in the development of contemporary Iranian history that had profound effects on the fate and general orientation of the country. The purpose of this study is to study the future of the developments of political factions in the Islamic Republic of Iran in the next decade. The research method is screenwriting with an intuitive logic approach and therefore a range of the most prominent party political activists, university professors and members of the Islamic Consultative Assembly in different periods as a research community and the audience of the questionnaire has been used to refer to their ijtihads. Which is the result of years of effective presence in the highest areas of domestic politics, to provide significant scenarios for the future of Iran in the desired period and thus a role in the strategic planning of the system to shape its preferred future. To play. The three main scenarios presented in this study are the continuation of the status quo, the antagonistic gap and the elimination of one of the political factions, and the adjustment in the discourse and beliefs of the political factions.

In the new millennium, the issue of social security has been considered as one of the pillars of national security, especially in developing countries such as Iran. The author of the present study emphasizes the assumption that national security, contrary to the traditional realistic view, does not simply mean military security at the external level, and its internal level in providing security can be as important as its external level because the study of developing countries shows It is that the greatest threat to the national security of these countries is due to internal issues, including their social and political issues, and insecurity and internal social threats are almost a common topic in the security studies of these countries. The present article tries to re-examine this issue by using the knowledge of futurology in a descriptive-analytical manner with the aim of identifying the issues and challenges of social security in the Islamic Republic of Iran.