جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « پیش بینی » در نشریات گروه « حسابداری »

Restatement of Financial Statements , which means re-presenting last year's financial information in order to correct incorrect information or increase comparability, is one of the common phenomena in Iran, which causes investors to lose confidence in the credibility and competence of management and the quality of reported profits. The purpose of this research is to present the development model of Benish fraud in companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange between 2008 and 2019. The data of 265 companies were extracted using the selected and final indicators of Benish's (1999) fraud model, and neural network and genetic algorithms were also used to develop the prediction model. The results of the research indicate that based on the confusion matrix, the accuracy and efficiency of the improved Benish model with the combined algorithm of neural network and genetics in predicting unrepresented companies was 78.15%, and re-presented companies was 29.63%. . Also, the overall accuracy of the model presented with the combined algorithm of neural network and genetics was 73.21%.

Due to emotional factors, optimism, limited rationality, time limitation, judgment and social factors, management shows various behavioral biases that can have long-term negative effects on investors and the company. From the point of view of shareholders, tax avoidance is not only justifiable but also desirable. On the other hand, in order to achieve the economic development of the country, the government must be able to finance its current expenses from tax revenues. Meanwhile, previous research shows that due to reasons such as tax avoidance and tax evasion, tax revenues constitute a small percentage of the country's income sources. This makes studies related to tax avoidance and the factors affecting it more important. Based on this, the main purpose of this study is to Investigating the effect of optimism, myopia and overconfidence behavioral biases on tax avoidance.The statistical population of the research includes the companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. Accordingly, by applying some conditions and constraints, 95 companies (950 observations) were selected from the statistical population over the period 2013-2022 and the relationships between the research variables were analyzed using static panel data and logistic regression method. The results of the hypothesis test show that overconfidence and management myopia variables have a direct and significant relationship with the dependent variable of tax avoidance while optimism variable has the opposite effect on this variable.

The importance of predicting financial helplessness has always been increasing for the ownership of companies, global economies are also aware of the risks caused by the obligations and debts of companies, especially after the collapse of large organizations such as WorldCom and Enron. have become sensitive On the other hand, the unfavorable financial situation of companies also causes losses for different sections of the society, especially investors, including shareholders and creditors, who are not only investors, but also senior managers, accountants, and auditors are interested in the financial status of companies scientifically. to predict Therefore, in the present research, the identification and ranking of the predicting variables of financial helplessness of the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange was done using the fuzzy approach. The statistical population of this research is academic experts and capital market activists. The results of the research showed that the most important variables predicting the financial distress of companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange are: current ratio; instantaneous ratio; debt ratio; cash to assets; working capital to total assets; net sales to total assets; P/E ratio; cash to current liabilities; cash to total assets; current assets to total assets; market value of shares to book value of shares; net profit to total assets; operating profit to total assets; net profit to equity; net profit to net sales; company value; the life of the company; size of the company.

This study analyzes the effects of optimism and myopia of CEOs on the dimensions of corporate social responsibility (CSR) including environmental responsibility, social performance, responsibility for products and services, and human resources responsibility with respect to the moderating roles of political connections and CEO effectiveness.

The statistical sample included 130 companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange within the 2014–2020 period. The multivariate regression method was employed to test the research hypotheses.

According to the research results, a CEO optimism had a positive relationship with human resources responsibility but had a negative relationship with environmental responsibility. There was also a negative relationship between myopia and human resources responsibility. Political connections moderating the relationship between myopia and human resources responsibility. Moreover, efficiency had a positive moderating role in the relationship between optimism and human resources responsibility but had negative effects on the other CSR dimensions. Furthermore, effectiveness had positive moderating roles in the relationships of myopia with human resources responsibility and social performance but had negative effects on the responsibility for products and services.

Optimistic CEOs pay less attention to environmental responsibility, thereby increasing corporate risk, but pay more attention to human resources responsibility. By contrast, myopic CEOs make fewer investments in human resources responsibility.

Contribution: 

Apparently, there is a paucity of empirical background to the relationships of CEO optimism and myopia with the dimensions of CSR. Therefore, this study can help enhance the relevant knowledge.

The key qualities for accounting students in the domains of financial issues and investments are among the requirements of entrepreneurship. Besides, one of the most serious challenges facing Iran's government is to create job opportunities and above all resolve youth unemployment, particularly among higher education students and graduates. Given the limited facilities and capabilities of the government to develop businesses for all, it is of utmost importance to reflect on entrepreneurial activities and plan for them. From this perspective, the present study aimed to investigate the impacts of financial and investment decision-making components on entrepreneurial intention (EI) to start and develop businesses among Iranian accounting students. For this purpose, the effects of financial intelligence, risk-taking, optimism, levels of accounting education, and work experience on accounting students' EI were explored. 

The statistical population in this study consisted of all students enrolled in the associate's, bachelor's, master's, and PhD programs in accounting at Iranian universities and institutions of higher education. In view of the large statistical population and the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across Iran, the research questionnaire was initially designed online, via the Avalform software, and its link was then sent to the accounting students via e-mails as well as virtual channels and groups on scientific social networks, such as WhatsApp and Instagram. In this way, simple random sampling was utilized. Upon collecting the data and excluding five incomplete questionnaires, the data from 252 questionnaires were exploited for further analysis. In line with the sample size table developed by Bartlett, Kotrlik, and Higgins (2001), at least 209 questionnaires needed to be completed and analyzed in field studies with unlimited populations. Accordingly, the number of questionnaires in this study met the sample size adequacy, and the results could be generalized to the entire statistical population. The data collection instrument was a standardized questionnaire, consisting of several parts with open- and closed-ended items. To check its validity, the opinions of four entrepreneurship and accounting experts were firstly obtained, and then the reliability of its different scales were measured by the Cronbach's alpha coefficient. As well, the data analysis was fulfilled using the SPSS and SmartPLS software packages. For this purpose, the descriptive and inferential statistics were recruited. With regard to the inferential statistics, the structural equation modeling (viz. the measurement and structural model assessments), and the partial least squares (PLS) as an estimation approach were performed. During the measurement model assessment, the validity, reliability, and fit of the measurement model for the latent variables in the study were calculated. As well, the research hypotheses were tested by the proposed model through the structural model assessment. 

The study results demonstrated that financial intelligence had a significant positive effect on EI among Iranian accounting students at the 99% confidence interval (CI). Therefore, it was acknowledged that the students' intention to start and develop entrepreneurial activities and establish businesses could boost alongside the growth in their financial intelligence. Additionally, the findings revealed that risk-taking had a significant positive impact on EI. In other words, the accounting students' EI toward self-employment and investment for starting and developing entrepreneurial businesses could multiply as their level of risk-taking amplified. Even though optimism as one of the main personal characteristics could influence entrepreneurship, and act as a driving force in entrepreneurial activities and investment to launch new and high-risk businesses, the results of the present study demonstrated that optimism did not have a significant effect on EI among the accounting students in Iran. In fact, optimism failed to predict the variations in their EI, due to the nature of accounting as a field of study and its working conditions in this country. Human capital could similarly play a significant role in strengthening EI in the students to start a business and organizing the relevant resources. In light of this, there is strong evidence that human capital raises the individuals' tendency to undertake entrepreneurial activities. On this point, the study results confirmed that the human capital components, i.e., work experience and the level of accounting education could have a significant positive effect on the students' EI. Put it plainly, the Iranian accounting students' decisions could be directed toward self-employment and investment in entrepreneurial activities with the rise in their experience and levels of education. 

The study results established that the financial and investment decision-making components, such as financial intelligence, risk-taking, work experience, and level of accounting education could contribute to forming EI among accounting students to start and develop entrepreneurial businesses. Therefore, this study had some theoretical and practical implications for EI in students, especially the accounting ones. Considering the theoretical achievements, no coherent research had been previously conducted to predict accounting students' EI with an emphasis on the financial and investment decision-making components, to the best of the authors' knowledge, so the present study aimed to examine the effects of such components on accounting students' EI to fill the existing gaps. In terms of the practical outcomes, policy-makers, planners, managers, and professors in the higher education system could take advantage of the study results to promote entrepreneurial and self-employment activities among students; for example, they are suggested to establish student entrepreneurship cooperatives, offer comprehensive training and internship courses, and hold entrepreneurship workshops and events to expand students' financial intelligence and risk-taking, boost human capital, and thereby promote EI among them.

The purpose of the present study is to review the impact of managers’ narcissism on their trade strategies and innovative acts with an emphasis on their optimism. The research population includes all accepted corporations in Tehran Stock Exchange during the years from 2015 to 2019. Using a systematic removal method, 101 corporations were chosen as the statistical sample and data analysis was conducted by EViews and Minitab software. For hypothesis testing, multivariate linear regression was used. The results showed that there is a significant correlation between managers’ narcissism and their aggressive and defensive strategies while the variable of their optimism has no significant effect on the relationship between their narcissism and aggressive strategies. Furthermore, there is a significant correlation between managers’ narcissism and components of innovative acts including personal innovation, environmental innovation, administrative innovation, and technical innovation and managers’ optimism is effective on the correlation between this variable and all components of innovative acts, except technical innovation. The results of this study can lead to an effect on decision-making and identify the impact of psychological components such as narcissism on people’s performance.

The CEO behavioral pattern is the most important factor in decisions regarding corporate financing and capital structure composition. With the increasing competitiveness and management difficulty in highly complex organizational environments, firms (companies/organizations) require CEOs who can identify and consider such inherent complexity in momentous decisions. Risk management constitutes a major part of this decision-making process. Therefore, this study sought to address how CEO’s optimism and myopia affect different dimensions of corporate risk management, including compliance, strategy, operation, and reporting, considering the moderating role of CEO’s political connection and efficiency. To this end, the data were collected from 130 firms listed on Tehran Stock Exchange in the 2014–2018 timeframe, and they were analyzed using multivariate regression with combined data. Results (from hypothesis testing) showed that CEO’s optimism has a negative relationship with strategy and operation, but a positive one with reporting. They also revealed that there is a negative, significant relationship between CEO’s myopia and strategy and compliance. CEO’s political connection turns negative the relationship between CEO’s optimism and operation as well as the relationship between CEO’s myopia and compliance; in addition, it has a positive effect on the relationship between CEO’s optimism and compliance and strategy, and a negative one on (the relationship with) operation. The mediating role of CEO’s efficiency is positive in the relationship between myopia and strategy and reporting, and it is negative in the relationship of myopia with operation.

Corporate governance system is considered as the supervision and control process to guarantee performance of company’s management consistent with the shareholder’s interest. Corporate social responsibility is perceived as a community commitment towards most people in the society. However, their future paths and directions will be determined by the decisions made by managers at the core system of companies. This research was performed with the aim of studying the effects of perceptual and behavioral disorders on the mechanisms related to corporate governance system, as well as social responsibility, based on the criteria of overconfidence, optimism, and shortsightedness. The sample in this research included 110 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for the period of 2012-2019, which were studied via EViews 10 software package. The research results showed that the overconfidence of managing director had a significant negative effect on the independent audit; optimism while shortsightedness of managing director had no significant impacts on the independent audit; overconfidence and shortsightedness of managing director had no significant effect on the level of institutional ownership; optimism of managing director had a significant negative impact on the level of institutional ownership; overconfidence of managing director had a significant positive effect on the ownership concentration; optimism of managing director had a significant negative impact on the ownership concentration; shortsightedness of managing director had no significant effect on the ownership concentration; overconfidence and shortsightedness of managing director had significant negative impacts on social responsibility; and optimism of managing director had no significant effect on the social responsibility.

Prediction and analysis of stock market movements are an important topic for researchers, traders and have got an important role in today’s economy. Variety in policies, such as government policies and economic policies affect the stock market and cause stock price changes. The predicting stock price movement on a daily basis due to the non-linear and chaotic stock price movements is a difficult task. There are several ways for predicting in stock market. Artificial intelligence techniques have been widely used to predict data with nonlinear and chaotic structure. One of these techniques is neural network. If neural network is trained correctly, then it has minimum error in predicting. In this research, we will train the multi layer perceptron neural network with 8 meta heuristics algorithms and we predict Tehran Exchange Dividend Price Index (TEDPIX). The Results show that grey wolf optimization has the minimum error in training of neural network.

The main goal of this research is to predict financial distress in terms of key words and phrases using the text mining technique. The statistical population of this research is the audit reports of 50 financially disadvantaged companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange in 2017. Therefore, these companies were subjected to text mining in order to collect the required data for the research reports from the years 2015 and 2016. Research findings indicate that the term non-observance of regulations and rules with 162 cases, the word conflicts with 123 cases, the absence of the presence of the beneficiary's manager with 122, loss of profit, decrease in the value of goods and assets with 116 items, lack of access to information And documents with 102 cases, adjustments to 101 cases, bonds of directors with 93 cases, board approvals of 86, and ultimately accumulated losses and renewals with 85 views in audit reports. Given the extracted terms and expressions, the method of text mining can be used to predict corporate financial distress. It can also be used as a method to extract useful information from audit reports.

Sustainability is a wider concept that incorporates other concepts of social responsibility and is examined with concepts such as sustainability of competition, sustainability of reporting and social sustainability. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of managers' anti-reflection on the socio-economic component of sustainability performance report. The purpose of this research is applied and from the methodological point of view is descriptive-correlational research. For this purpose, the required data from 79 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 1391 to 1395 were collected. The results of the research indicate that among the economic components of sustainability, which includes sustainability of competition and sustainability of reporting, the relation between management's unpredictability with both competition stability and reporting is negative and significant among the social components of sustainability through Social sustainability is achieved and social sustainability includes social impact, social commitment and social benefits. The relationship between management's unpredictability with social sustainability and social impact and social commitment is negative and meaningful, but it is socially positive and meaningless and in the end The lack of managerial thinking and performance Of the two elements is negative and significant social and economic.

Company growth and profitability forecasts are important inputs in the valuation process. Also, mean reversion estimates can serve as inputs in estimating steady-state final value parameters. The main purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that life cycle-based mean reversion models provide better results for forecasting profitability and growth compared to the industry-level and economy-wide models. This study also tests the hypothesis that managers realize the benefits of industry and life cycle analysis when making their predictions. Totally, this study compares the variables and factors affecting the accuracy of predictions from mean reversion life cycle-based models with industry-level and economy-wide models.  

The data of 161 companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange, TSE, in a 10-year period of 2008-2018 were collected from the software, financial statements, and the TSE official website. To test the research hypotheses, we used statistical tests such as t- student, multivariate regression using SPSS software, econometrics estimation using Eviews. The Dickinson (2011) model was used to determine the different stages of the companies' life cycle, which is consistent with the pattern of cash flows (operating activities, investment, and financing).  

Test results of the first hypothesis, in most cases, provided evidence that growth and profitability forecasts derived from industry-level mean reversion models outperform the forecasts of the life cycle and the economy-wide models. By comparing the mean errors in the second hypothesis, the findings of the model are more accurate than other models, indicating that managers realize the importance of the firm's life cycle when predicting profits. The results of the study of factors affecting the accuracy of the life cycle model of prediction compared to other models indicated that the improvement of life cycle growth forecasts lacks significant relationships with systematic and non-systematic risk, beta coefficient, trading volume, the ratio of institutional owners, the market-to-book ratio, and the amount and intensity of the R &D, the volume of intangible assets, and financial leverage. However, for higher profitability scales, improved life cycle forecasts correlate with firm size, assets and equipment, and abnormal (poor) corporate returns. Also, the life cycle approach works best when the percentage of institutional shareholder ownership is high and the company's uncertainty, profitability, and assets are low.  

In this study, we investigated the accuracy of a forecast model based on a firm life cycle for predicting future profitability and growth relative to economy-wide and industry-specific forecast models. In general, the results of the research indicate the relative superiority of the predictions of industry-level models over the predictions obtained from the life cycle and the economy-wide models. Although the research findings do not provide evidence of more explanatory power of the life cycle model compared to other models, they suggest that managers have realized the importance of the life cycle of the company when making profit forecasts. This research has important implications that help investors, analysts, managers, and others make better predictions when making financial decisions. Also, this study identifies the drivers of growth and profitability for companies through a low-cost and high employment strategy to achieve the most accurate forecasts.

Sustainability is a wider concept that incorporates other concepts of social responsibility and is examined with concepts such as sustainability of competition, sustainability of reporting and social sustainability. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of managers' optimism on the socio-economic component of sustainability performance report. The purpose of this research is applied and from the methodological point of view is descriptive-correlational research. For this purpose, the required data from 79 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 1391 to1395were collected. The results of the research indicate that among the economic components of sustainability, which include sustainability of competitiveness and sustainability of reporting, there is a negative and significant relationship between managerial optimism with positive and meaningful reporting stability and sustainability of competition, and among the social components of performance Sustainability through social sustainability and social sustainability including social impact, social commitment, and social benefits. The relationship between managerial optimism and social sustainability, social impact, social commitment, and social benefits are negative and significant. In the end, managers' optimism and sustainability performance, which is a combination of two components of social and economic, is negative and significant.

The need for and attention to the future and their relevance has been repeatedly discussed in our markets and the subject of forecasting is a unique factor that estimates future unknown values. Given the importance of forecasting in financial research, stock return predictions have so far been tested through various models and variables. Most of these variables, were external variables based on macroeconomic variables in addition to internal variables. In the light of the above, the present article reviews and empirically investigates some of the most important macroeconomic variables that were previously used in a variety of stock return forecasting models. The results of the paper show that macroeconomic variables effective on the stock market (stock return or market index) are suitable for modeling to predict stock returns. In the stock market of our country, the results of the impact of these variables on stock returns have been similar in some respects and contradictory in other respects, and the reasons can be attributed to the type of forecasting models, the time period of the research and different economic structure of the country.

Managers' optimism is a personality trait that is idefined as having a positive belief in each aspect of an event under uncertainty conditions. According to the researches in this area, managers' optimism can be arrised from two factors. One is the economic incentives and the other is people's mental response. In the present research, the concept of manager's optimism, its underlying factors, and the proxies used in the accounting, finance and psychology literature in order to measure it, are discussed. Finally a new insight about managerial optimism have been presented by describing concepts related to two type of optimism, optimism in financial reporting, and its relation with overconfidence and moltivated reasoning.

The effects of factors such as the quality of financial reporting, financial constraints and investment opportunities on the investment performance are studied. But the effect of factors such as optimism or pessimism manages the performance of investment management behavior and firm value has not been studied. This study examines the relationship between optimism management, investment performance and value of the firm's. For this purpose, among the listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange in the period from 2010 to 2015, have been selected 181 companies and were tested using multivariate regression. The results showed that among companies with low investment (more investment) takes, optimism (pessimism) management does not have a significant effect on the company's investment. Also the results showed that among companies with low investment (more funding) drawn; optimism (pessimism) reduces the value of the company's management. According to the results of optimism (pessimism) manage the impact on investment performance, but at the time of the inefficiency of investment reduces firm value.

Severe economic fluctuations and adverse consequences for investors. The need for predictive models has made corporate finance necessary. In this regard, This research is intended by examining the relationship between financial ratios and the content of the board's reports open a new way to predict company status. For this purpose, were extracted frequency of words and phrases with positive and negative semantic load using the word extraction algorithm, From the text of the board's reports 219 non helpless companies and 81 helpless companies. Results of regression estimation positive and negative words ratio on financial performance indicators, shows in companies with financial health, negative words have a significant relationship with functional criteria. Evidence showed in these companies, managers are not trying to hide their financial crisis. The results for the helpless companies were different In general, there was no meaningful relationship between the words with the performance indicators of these companies. It looks like this group of companies by confusing the, they try to prevent to selling from their shares by stakeholders.

Understanding cost behavior is one of the important discussions of industrial accounting and management accounting. The basic assumption in the traditional literature of cost accounting is that for any increase and decrease in activity level, there is a symmetrical relationship between costs and activity level; that is, the magnitude of changes in costs regardless of the direction of change depends only on the change in the amount of the surface activity. The prospect of future earnings, its stickiness, and the cash returns of the stock, due to the objectivity and tangibility, have a special place in the analysis of a group of stakeholders with technical knowledge. Therefore, attention to the issue of stickiness of the prospects of future income as a new feature of costing looks necessary. The Purpose of this research is Effectiveness of future earnings prospects stickiness of cognitive disorders CEO. The sample of this study includes 206 companies accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 2009-2016, which was investigated using multivariate linear regression using Eviews software. The results of the research indicate that there is a meaningful relationship between the three criteria and the stickiness of the prospects of future earnings. This relationship was positive in both cases of optimism and optimism in terms of optimism among the three criteria of the rest.