The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible changes of yield and related welfare of two major groups of cereals and vegetable crops as a result of two climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) variations in Khuzestan province. For estimation of crop response production function of selected study crops, meteorological data including rainfall, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and relative humidity of 13 stations across the province for the years 1991 to 2019 were collected. Crop response production functions for different climate zones of the province were determined and possible effects of climatic variation on producer / consumer welfare were assessed. According to the results, the welfare of the cereal crops, the producer welfare surplus is higher than the consumer welfare surplus. A decreasing trend in welfare was observed under climate change scenarios. Also, the obtained results of projected welfare of the vegetables crops showed that the consumer welfare surplus is higher than the producer welfare surplus. In general, the welfare surplus of cereals is higher than that of summer vegetable crops and hence as a adaption strategy, cereal cultivation may be recommended.

The research aim is to study the yield including irrigated and dry-farmed wheat, barley, and corn in the climate and sub-climates of the country. So, the average yield of the studied products, average rainfall, and average temperature data have been used for the climatic change from the period 1982-2015. Due to the fact that cereal products over 56% and 77% of the cultivated area in arid and semi-arid regions, respectively. Therefore, in this study, only cereal are studied and among all of the crops, they have been selected, the five crops that have the highest area under cultivation. Finally, the function of various crops’ demands was used to investigate the effects of climate change on crops.The results show that the highest yield coefficients of rainfall are to precipitation in cold and sub-climates semi-arid cold, semi-arid hot, semi-arid temperate, cold dry, hot dry and temperate dry are related to dryland wheat, irrigated wheat, dryland wheat, dryland barley, dryland barley, dryland wheat, respectively. In addition, the highest coefficients of function of demands to temperature in cold and sub-climates of semi-arid cold, semi-arid warm, semi-arid temperate, cold dry, hot dry and temperate dry are related to dryland wheat, dryland barley, irrigated wheat and dryland barley, dryland wheat, respectively. According to the results of the research and in order to efficiently manage production and better performance, agricultural products in climates and sub-climates in the country are recommended. Compilation of a comprehensive cultivation model and allocation of the type of crop cultivation in the climate and sub-climate should be done by considering the reaction rate of the yield of the products and the exploitation of most of the mentioned products.

The agriculture section as a subsection of our economy receives the most impact under the climate fluctuations. Climate change is an unsustainable factor affecting the yield of agricultural crops. Therefore, agricultural production, especially rainfed cultivation, has a high correlation with climatic factors. Climate change, in addition to affecting the production of agricultural crops, affects the sustainability and performance of agricultural products by influencing water resources. Agricultural product performance forecasting is one of the management tools in agricultural sector planning and policy making. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the yield and production rate of three summer crops including cucumber, tomato and watermelon due to climate change in Khuzestan province and their prediction for the years 2025 to 2100.

In order to evaluate the reaction function of summer crops yield in Khuzestan province, meteorological data including precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and relative humidity of 13 meteorological stations including Ahvaz, Izeh, Andimeshk, Mahshahr, Behbahan, Dezful, Azadegan, Ramhormoz, Shushtar, Masjed Soleiman, Omidieh, Shadegan and Shoush was collected during the years 1991 to 2020. Excel and SPSS software were used to calculate and analyze the indicators. The climatic indices of Khuzestan province were divided into two climatic regions. Region (1) included Ahvaz, Mahshahr, Behbahan, Shoushtar, Omidie, Shadegan and Shoush, and region (2) included Dezful, Azadegan, Ramhormoz, Masjed Soliman and Andimeshk. The yield function of three products including cucumber, tomato and watermelon at two regions was estimated using panel data and Eviews software. Then, the yield and production rate of crops were predicted using the climate forecasting scenarios for the years 2025 to 2100.

The results showed that temperature had a negative and significant effect on the yield of tomato in region (1) and region (3), but it had a positive and significant effect on the yield of region (2). Rainfall had a negative and significant effect on the yield of tomato in region (1). But rainfall had a positive and significant effect on the yield of crops in region (2) and (3). Humidity had a positive and significant effect on tomato in region (1) and (2), but it had a negative effect on region (3). Temperature had a positive and significant effect on cucumber yield in region (1) and region (3). But it had a negative effect on the yield of cucumber in region (2). Rainfall had a positive and significant effect on cucumber yield in region (1) and (3). But it had a negative effect on the performance of region (2). Humidity also had a positive effect on the performance of cucumber in region (1), but it had a negative effect on the performance of region (2) and (3). Temperature had a negative and significant effect on watermelon yield in region (1) and (3), but it had a positive effect on watermelon yield in region (2). Rainfall had a negative and significant effect on the yield of watermelon in region (1), but it did not have a significant effect on the yield of region (2) and (3). Humidity had a negative and significant effect on the yield of watermelon in region (1) and (3), but it had a positive and significant effect on the yield of region (2). Also, the results showed that the highest percentage of yield changes in climate scenarios were related to cucumber in region (3) and watermelon and tomato in region (2). The results of forecasting the production rate of selected crops during the years 2100-2025 showed that the highest production rate was related to tomato in region (2), watermelon in region (2) and watermelon in region (1). Based on the results, during the years 2100-2025, the cultivated area of tomato crop in region (1) showed a more downward trend, but the cultivated area of cucumber crop in region (1) showed a more upward trend.

The results of yield forecasting until year 2100 showed that cucumber crop in region (3) and watermelon and tomato crops in region (2) have respectively higher increase rate of yield. Also, results demonstrated that in region (2), tomato and watermelon have higher production rate, respectively. Given to adverse effects of climate change on the production of studied crops and in order to prevent considerable reduction of production rate, solutions should be provided to adapt more to climate conditions, such as changing the cultivation pattern, optimal management of resources and production of varieties resistant to climate change. Therefore, according to the obtained results, it could be stated that region (2) has a relative advantage in the production of watermelon and tomato crops.

The potential impacts of climate change on water resources and food security are receiving growing attention especially in regions that face growing challenges like water demands for agricultural, domestic and environmental uses. The anticipated climate change are likely to impact water resources (surface water and groundwater) by altering precipitation patterns and change in nature of rainfall regimes. Apart from the effects on water availability, climate change is expected to adversely affect crop productivity, food security and food producers' income. Climate changes could affect the four dimensions of food security; food availability, access, utilization, and stability. Therefore, this study aims at investigating the economic effects of climate change on the agricultural sector (including the yield of crops, water resources, food security and profitability) in Hamadan-Bahar plain. The hypothesis tested in this research is that climate change has negative impacts on the agricultural sector in the study area and it is necessary to present solutions to reduce these effects. Accordingly, the question answered in this study is whether climate changes in the region reduces crop yields, the profitability of the agricultural sector, and aggravate the scarcity of water resources. For this purpose in this study, the effects of climate change in different scenarios on regional cultivation pattern, basic food cultivation pattern, gross profit of farmers, physical and economic productivity of water and food security in Hamedan-Bahar plain have been investigated and then various suggestions to these problems have been presented.

For this purpose, the physiological, hydrological and meteorological aspects of the problem were integrated into an economic model and the changes in cultivation pattern of the plain were projected in counterfactual climatic scenarios. Accordingly, the outputs of the HadCM3 model under the scenarios of B1 (optimistic) and A2 (pessimistic) were utilized for the fourth report; additionally, the outputs of the ensemble model under RCP 2.6 (optimistic) and RCP 8.5 (pessimistic) scenarios were used for the fifth report of IPCC. Then, the variables of rainfall and temperature for the horizon of 2070 were predicted under scenarios B1, A2, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 using the Lars-WG model. In this regard, the yield response functions of the products with respect to climatic parameters by the Generalized Maximum Entropy method (GME) were estimated and the elasticity of the yield of the products with regard to temperature and rainfall were calculated. Then products yield changes on the 2070 horizon under different climate change scenarios were predicted and by including it in a positive mathematical programming (PMP), the impact of different climate change scenarios on regional cultivation pattern, basic food cultivation pattern, gross profit of farmers, physical and economic productivity of water and food security were examined. To estimate the yield response regression model and predict climate changes by LARS_WG model, the data on the period 1982-1982 were used. Also the data and information of farmers were obtained using a two-stage cluster sampling method in 2018 (baseline).

The results indicate an increase in temperature, a decrease in precipitation, a decrease in the supply of water resources, and consequently a decrease in the yield of most basic food products and an increase in the yield of some vegetable and summer crops were anticipated in all scenarios. The results also showed that the occurrence of the mentioned consequences has negative effects on the total production of crops, the amount of production of basic food products and the gross profit of farmers in the region. And in this regard, in the most pessimistic scenario on the horizon of 2070, it will impose a loss of 490 billion rials on farmers. The increase in the physical and economic efficiency of water in different scenarios shows that water is becoming more valuable due to the decrease in the quantity of water due to climate change. Therefore the economic value of water would increase in the future decades in Hamadan-Bahar plain, which itself represents the severity of water scarcity in the agricultural sector.

The occurrence of climate change by affecting water resources, crop yields, cultivated area, food production and ultimately farmers' incomes, in addition to imposing economic and environmental losses, would affect various aspects of food security such as food availability, access, stability and utilization. Accordingly, in order to maintain and improve the yield of crops and reduce the possible losses imposed on income and food security of the region, it is vital to adopt appropriate strategies compatible with climate change, including the use of new irrigation technologies, deficit irrigation methods and to reform the cultivation pattern by selecting products with higher economic value in order that increase water productivity. Finally improving management of water resources and farmers' income at the plant, farm and region levels, is crucial.

The agriculture section as a subsection of our economy receives the highest impact from climate change. Wheat is one of the most important strategic products in the world and its yield and quantity are significant for humans and animals. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the likely effects of climate change on wheat production in Hormozgan Province (2004-2018). In order to more accurately estimate the function of wheat yield to climatic components, the climatic indices of Hormozgan Province were divided into two climatic regions. Using weather scenarios, the yield, product and crop area of the wheat crop were predicted for the years 2025 to 2100. Finally, consumer welfare, producer welfare and overall welfare were calculated using nonlinear programming model and partial equilibrium method. The results showed that the factors temperature and management have inverse and rainfall and technology have direct relationship with the wheat yield. Projections showed a declining trend for yield, production and crop area up to the year 2100 where Area 2 had a higher reduction than Area 1. The results showed that the wheat production suffered higher reduction due to climate change compared to the reduced acreage. The overall welfare showed a decreasing trend for years to come and consumers will experience more harm than producers. Therefore, due to the different effects of climate change on wheat products, it is advisable to find ways to adapt to the climatic conditions. These attempts include but are not limited to changing the region's cultivation pattern, optimal management of the resources and producing climate resistant seeds.

After cereals, oilseeds form the second largest food reserve in the world. Sesame has been one of the oldest oil plants in the world, which is known as the queen of oil plants due to its pleasant taste, high stability and stability, high resistance to dryness and the fact that the oil does not oxidize. Sesame is considered as an oil-protein source and sesame seeds contain 34-60% oil and 19-30% protein. Rapeseed is another oilseed that has more than 40% of oil in the seed and about 40% of protein in its meal, which plays an important role in human nutrition and animal and poultry feed.Climate change is a significant and persistent change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns that occurs over a long period of time in a specific region or for the entire global climate. In fact, this phenomenon occurs as a result of internal factors such as dynamic processes of the earth or external factors such as changes in the intensity of sunlight or human activities.As a result of climate change, the average weather variables such as temperature and precipitation do not remain constant and change in different regions.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate climate change and predict its effects on the performance and well-being of the producer and the well-being of the consumer of the two products of sesame and canola. The required meteorological and agricultural data were collected in the form of combined data for two crops during 1370-1398. Using weather forecasting scenarios, the performance of two products was predicted. Finally, with the help of non-linear programming model, consumer welfare, producer welfare and total welfare were calculated and predicted using the partial balance method. Eviews, Excel and GAMS software were used to conduct this study. Khuzestan province was zoned into three climatic zones for more accurate estimation of yield response function.

In this research, the climatic conditions of Iran in the decades of 2000, 2025, 2050 and 2100 were modeled using the output of two atmospheric general circulation models ECHAM4 and HadCM 2. The results show an increase in the temperature of all the provinces of the country in the coming decades. These two models predicted an average temperature increase of 3 to 3.6 degrees Celsius until the 2100s for the country. The panel data method is used to estimate the climate model.

According to the results obtained from the calculation of welfare, it was found that the welfare surplus of the producer is higher than the welfare surplus of the consumer, and the results obtained from the welfare forecast according to the climate scenarios show that the amount of welfare generally follows a decreasing trend with fluctuation and The amount of losses caused by climate change has been higher for consumers than for producers.

Today, one of the most important challenges in maintaining the stability and sustainability of regional and national economic development is the phenomenon of climate change and its consequences, which is a serious threat to natural systems, water resources and social and economic well-being. Therefore, understanding the relationship between climate change and socio-economic variables such as food security and economic welfare, is necessary.This research aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on food security and economic welfarein the Hamadan-Bahar plain. In this regard, the variables of rainfall and temperature for the horizon of 2070 were predicted underselected climate scenarios and by estimating yield response functions, the products yield changes due to climatic parameters were measured. Finally, by developing a nonlinear mathematical planning model including economic, agronomic and meteorological dimensions, the potential effects of climate change on economic welfare and food security under the selected climatic scenarios in 2070 horizon compared to 2018(baseline) were evaluated. The results showed that climate change on the 2070 horizon would reduce water access, food production and supply, and ultimately reduce consumer welfare surpluses and increase food prices. Accordingly, the farm income would increase but still total economic welfare decline. On the other hand, the largest reduction in consumer surplus in all scenarios is related to strategic products that provide food security. However, the strategy of improving irrigation efficiency by 4.7, 20.8, 5.5 and 24.1%, respectively in scenarios B1, A2, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, will be completely neutralize welfare losses due to climate change.

The agriculture section as a subsection of our economy receives the most impact under the climate fluctuations. Climate change is an unsustainable factor affecting the yield of agricultural crops. Therefore, recognition of climate parameters and their effect on crops is one of the most important factors in increasing yield. Vegetable production globally, as a wage-earning profession, is very effective in improving the general public's economy. The inadequate use of potential climatic facilities causes the destruction of natural resources and the wasting of the national capital. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the yield and production of onion and tomato products due to climate change and its prediction for 2025-2100 in Hormozgan province.

In order to more accurately estimate the function of the reaction of the yield of horticultural products to the climatic components, the climatic indices of Hormozgan province were divided into two climatic regions. Region (1) includes Minab, Hajiabad, Rudan and region (2) includes Bandarlenghe, Band-Abbas, Qeshm and Jask. The yield function of two products, onion and tomato, in the two regions under study was estimated using panel data and Eviews software. Then, using the weather forecasting scenarios, the yield and production of vegetables (onion and tomato) for the years 2025 to 2100 were predicted. Agricultural and climatic data were collected during the years 2003- 2017.

Results showed that the temperature has an opposite effect and rainfall and humidity has a direct effect on the yield of onion and tomato. The most important factor affecting onion production in both regions is the temperature. On the tomato production, the humidity factor in the region (1) and the factor of temperature and humidity in the region (2) are almost the same in terms of effect level. The difference is that the temperature has a negative effect and the humidity has a positive effect on the performance. The negative effect of temperature on the onion yield was higher than that of tomato. The negative effect of temperature on onion production in the region (2) has a higher intensity than the region (1). Performance prediction up to 2100 showed that yield of onion reduce more than yield of tomato. the yield reduction in the region (2) is higher than the region (1). In contrast, the tomato production in the region (1) is higher than the region (2). According to the decline in the yield of two products, the production cuts for both products has been predicted in both regions until the year 2100.

According to the negative effects of climate change on the products under study, we should provide solutions to avoid the harmful effects and to adapt to the climatic conditions. This includes changing the region's cultivation pattern, managing optimal resources and producing climate change resistant seeds. Therefore, it can be stated that the region (1) has a comparative advantage in the production of onion and the region (2) in the production of tomato.

Water scarcity is a widespread problem in arid and semi arid regions. In this condition, evaluating crop response to water stress and estimation of ET production function (ETPF) is essential. The objective of this study was to investigate the dynamic interrelations of yield, evapotranspiration and water use efficiency of potato (Solanum Tuberosom L.) under trickle irrigation condition. This study was conducted in Dehgolan region of Kurdistan province in spring season of 1388. The experiment was arranged based on completely randomized block with 3 replication of water supply (60%, 80%, 100%, 120% of crop water requierment). In this study, evapotranspiration values and total yield of treatments were measured. To reveal the interrelations of yield, evapotranspiration and water use efficiency, two types of water production function including: Linear and Quadratic were used. The results showed that when the ETPF is linear, the EI will be numerically equal to the yield response factor (Ky), when ET reaches maximum ET (ETm). When ETPF was quadratic, the ET needed to maximize WUE is less than the ET for maximum yield (Ym). The results were also revealed that maximum yield was achieved at 345 mm of evapotranspiration and maximum water use efficiency (26.6 kg/m3) was achieved at 222 mm of evapotranspiration where 55.4 percent was less than the maximum evapotranspiration (ETm). However, the maximum yield was only 27.7 percent more than the yield in maximum water use efficiency. The interrelation of Y, ET and WUE are demonstrated that if water supply is limiting, seeking maximum water use efficiency may be desirable.

The agricultural sector is one of the most important economic sectors due to extensive interaction with the environment, the greatest impact of climate change takes effect.  The agricultural sector affects climate change and affects climate change. Climate change, on the one hand, affects agricultural performance and, on the other hand, affects the price of products, supply, demand and welfare of consumers and producers.

The purpose of this study was to assess climate change and predict its effects on yield, cropping and production of cucurbits. The welfare effects of climate change on cucurbits, during the years (2003-2017) in the Hormozgan province were studied.

Meteorological and agricultural data were gathered in the form of Panel data for cucumber and watermelon product  during the years 2003-2017. Using predicted weather scenarios, yields, cropping levels, and harvesting products from 2025 to 2100 were predicted. Finally, consumer welfare, producer welfare and overall welfare were calculated using nonlinear programming model. During the years 2025 to 2100 to predict the welfare of partial equilibrium method was used. Excel, Eviews and GAMS software were used for this study.

In order to estimate the precise function of horticultural crop yield response to climate factors, indicators of climatic zonation region of the province into two. The results showed that cucumber product had a direct relationship with temperature and had opposite relationship with rainfall. The watermelon product has the opposite relationship with the temperature factor and is directly related to the rainfall factor. Changes in performance under the weather scenarios for the cucumber product are increasing and the watermelon product follows a decreasing trend. The overall welfare will show a decreasing trend for years to come, consumers will experience less harm than producers. Therefore, due to the different effects of climate change on  cucurbits, it was necessary to find ways to adapt to the climatic conditions in order to orient these effects. Such as changing the region's cultivation pattern, managing optimal resources and producing climate change resistant seeds.