amirmansour tehranchian

In order to calculate the employment trend in Iran, the aim of the article is to optimize the employment trend in Iran for the years of implementation of the sixth economic, social and cultural development program (1396-1400). For this purpose, firstly, using the Gauss-Seidel algorithm, the system of dynamic and non-linear macrometric equations and the quantitative goals of the sixth development program, the employment process in the country was simulated. Then, the optimal trend of the working population was calculated from the minimization of the welfare loss function of the policymaker by programming and implementing an open-loop algorithm and solving the Bellman equations. The obtained results showed that achieving higher employment requires controlling inflation at lower rates as well as achieving a higher economic growth rate. The findings of this research are compatible with the theory of new Keynesians such as Gerish, Clarida, Gertler, Menkiu, Walsh and Taylor regarding the necessity of simultaneously reducing inflation and increasing production. Therefore, the jump in production and curbing inflation can be the optimal control of employment and business at the level Make the goal possible. Based on this, the targeting of macroeconomic indicators in the available (possible) territory, complete monetary and financial discipline, independence of the central bank and the use of stochastic optimal control theory in the targeting of development programs are among the policy recommendations of this article.

In the present study, the transferring and receiving, as well as the causal relationship of volatilities transmission according to the time-frequency across exchange rate, inflation, and budget deficit in the period of 2006:03-2019:02 (1385:01-1397:12) with a Monthly basis, is investigated using time-varying parameters vector autoregression model in different time-frequencies. The results showed that the main factor in the formation of volatilities in the government budget deficit as well as inflation is the exchange rate, especially if the exchange rate volatilities are long-term, the transmission of volatilities, and the net effect of the exchange rate on inflation and budget deficit increases. In addition, if exchange rate volatilities continue and lead to inflation and volatilities of government budget deficit, in the medium term, budget deficit volatilities will create the basis for transferring volatilities to the exchange rate, and with the increase of exchange rate volatilities, inflation will be volatile in the long term intensively. Therefore, the control of exchange rate volatilities in the short term will prevent the increase of inflation and the government budget deficits volatilities, and if the policymaker does not consider this important, in the medium term, the exchange rate will volatile again through the channel of the government budget deficit, and subsequently, the volatilities will be transferred to inflation in the long run severely.

In a situation where the country's banking system is vulnerable, the behavior of depositors based on their assessment of the banks' risk level can lead to an increase in the probability of systemic crises and instability of the banking network. Recently, network theory and agent-based simulation are used to investigate complex banking systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a new computational method that studies economic phenomena by representing the behavior of individuals and agents. Using this approach, the present study evaluates the phenomenon of bank runs and the effect of deposit insurance on the country's banking network. The agents in this ABM include banks, central bank, firms and depositors. Banks and depositors are intelligent agents that operate on an adaptive learning model. This research was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of depositors' behavior on the banking network and the safety policy of deposit insurance based on the balance sheets of 25 banks that are members of the Iranian interbank market during the years 2006 to 2019. We find that when depositors act strategically, bank operations occur and banks choose adaptive strategies with lower capital adequacy ratios (CARs). Also, our findings are that the safety of the banking network through deposit insurance has not been significantly successful in reducing the risk of contagion in the system.

Considering the position of oil in the economy of countries with oil resources, oil price uncertainty is one of the important sources of risk and uncertainty that affects the investment decisions of companies. In addition, another important issue that should be considered in this regard is whether the companies' investment response to the positive and negative uncertainty is symmetric or asymmetric.  Considering that the chemical products industry has an important role in the economic development of the country and is also affected by the developments of other markets such as the oil market, in this study the asymmetric effects of Brent oil price uncertainty on the investment of chemical products group companies in the Tehran stock exchange has been investigated from 2010 to 2021. The research modeling is based on dynamic panel models and the calculation of oil price uncertainty has been done by the GARCH method. Relationships between variables have also been estimated using the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM). The results show that during the period under review, oil price uncertainty had a negative effect on corporate investment. On the other hand, the findings indicate that the positive and negative oil price uncertainty has an asymmetric effect on corporate investment.

The wide scope of influence and effectiveness has turned inflation into one of the most important subjects of empirical studies as well as one of the main axes of policy making. In addition to the causes and effects of inflation, some economists have paid attention to the inflation index. Based on this, current inflation is not considered a suitable indicator for policy making and modeling due to high fluctuations. On the other hand, core inflation as a stable component of current inflation is a more suitable indicator for economic policies due to its stability. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of macroeconomic variables and inflation core gap using SVAR method, n Iran's economy in the period of1998-2021. The momentum of oil price fluctuations and liquidity do not have a significant impact on the core inflation gap. The core inflation gap is most influenced by currency impulses and its own fluctuations, which shows the impact of inflation expectations on the formation of core inflation; According to the findings of the research, it is suggested to control exchange rate fluctuations and target core inflation in order to control inflationary expectations.The results show that the core inflation index has been more stable compared to the inflation rate and exchange rate fluctuations have the greatest impact on the core inflation gap.

Inflation forecasting is one of the most important issues for the economies of countries, As the existing literature suggests, hybrid models will bring better prediction accuracy due to attention to both linear and non-linear dimensions. Furthermore, the use of ARDL model can include lags of other variables in tandem with having linear features. It should also be noted that LSTM models have a forgetting gate due to their non-linear estimation characteristics, and they can incorporate data with very distant lags in the model. Therefore, the combination of these two models can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. Accordingly, attempts have been made in the current study to compare ARDL, NARX, LSTM and ARDL-D-LSTM models with one another and to introduce a suitable model for predicting Iran's monthly inflation rate in the short-term and long-term time horizon. After estimating the monthly inflation rate of Iran in the period of 4/21/2005 to 8/22/2018 and testing the model on the data for the period of 9/22/2018 to 12/21/ 2020 it was found that the NARX model and the ARDL-D-LSTM hybrid model performed well respectively for short-term time horizon and the long-term horizon according to the RMSE criteria.

In the years after the Islamic Revolution of Iran, for various reasons, Iran's economy has always been under the economic sanctions of the United States, the United Nations, or the European :union:, sometimes by the United States alone, and in some periods by all three. In the present research, the impact of positive and negative shocks on the sanctions index through two paths of impact on the budget deficit and also the impact on the exchange rate and inflation on liquidity in the period of 1979-2020 has been investigated using the Threshold Structural Vector Autoregressive model (TSVAR). According to the research results, the threshold of sanctions growth through the path of exchange rate and inflation was 5.162 % and through the government budget deficit channel was 3.057%, which shows that the threshold of sanction growth in the exchange rate channel and inflation is greater. Also, the difference in the country's liquidity response to oil revenues is related to the sanctions threshold. Based on this, and to reduce the effects of exogenous oil shocks on liquidity, the stabilizing role of the National Development Fund should be considered along with the management of inflationary expectations.

One of the key issues in financial stability studies and prudential policies is systemic liquidity risk, in other words, the risk of liquidity problems at the same time and in several financial institutions. The fact that in the complex network of interbank market interconnections, the lack of liquidity is provided by spreading it between financial institutions, can lead to "systemic contagion" in the banking network. This research aims to investigate the existence of systemic contagion in the banking network of Iran and the effect of the Basel Committee's prudential regulations on interbank contagion based on the balance sheet data of 25 banks that are members of the interbank market in the years 2006-2018. For this purpose, based on the agent-based approach, Iran's banking network has been modeled and simulated. In this model, banks and the central bank are intelligent agents. Based on the obtained results, prudential regulatory requirements change banks' adaptive strategies, and banks put increasing the capital adequacy ratio on their agenda. In addition, this research shows that although the guidelines of the Basel Committee have succeeded in reducing contagion in the long run and making the banking network more stable, banks also reduce the supply of loans to the real sector, which can lead to a crunch in the economy.

The banking sector is an important sector in the economy; Because the financial needs of other sectors are met by the banking system. Thus, macroeconomic performance depends on the performance of the banking sector. The purpose of this paper is to test the symmetry of the effect of monetary policy on the performance of commercial banks (profitability with return on assets and net profit margins and efficiency with cost-to-income ratio) as well as GDP, volume of facilities granted by state and non-state banks in countries. (MENA) has been reviewed. For this purpose, the threshold vector autoregression method (TVAR) and quarterly data for 2013-2018 were used. Based on the results, the effects of positive and negative monetary and credit shocks on asset returns, net profit margin, cost-to-income ratio, GDP, volume of facilities granted by state and non-state banks in terms of direction and intensity The effectiveness of these two regimes is different. Therefore, it can be concluded that the effect of monetary policy and inflation on the above variables is asymmetric in both high and low production regimes.

Exchange rate is a variable transferring international economic shocks to domestic economy. In countries like Iran which are experiencing a high inflation and whose GDP as well as consumption expenditures are mostly dependent on imports and foreign capital flows, exchange rate changes and its effects need to be carefully monitored by policy makers and economic researchers. Considering the importance of inflation in the theoretical discussions and the high inflation rate in some developing countries, the effect of exchange rate on inflation has attracted economists interested in monetary issues and international economics.Nonlinear behavior in the exchange rate effect on inflation can provide false estimates of exchange rate coefficient when the econometric model is estimated linearly. In such a circumstance, we can accommodate cases when the inflation condition and its rate affect economic factors in response to an exchange rate shock. Indeed, domestic prices may not be sensitive to an exchange rate shock due to a low and stable inflation. However, they may respond wildly to a similar shock when inflation is above some significant thresholds.Although studies have mostly focused on measuring the extent of exchange rate effect on price levels, we believet that investigating the possible existence of one or more thresholds in exchange rate effect is important, because the reaction of monetary policymakers may somehow depend on the extent of exchange rate effect with respect to one (or more) threshold value(s). For instance, policymakers might not take care of the exchange rate fluctuations below a certain level, but as soon as it crosses such a level, they believe it damages the economy and the country welfare, thus triggering some intervention in the currency market.

A reason for the non-linear response of inflation is the non-linear nature of exchange rate trend. In fact, geometrically, among all the time paths of exchange rate, the probability of a linear path between the two time points is very weak. The effect consequence of all determinants of the exchange rate is displayed in its changes. Here are two important points to note. First, the cross-effects of exchange rate determinants can influence the impact of each determinant. Second, the importance of currency, especially in developing countries, and its key role between the foreign exchange and financial markets, has made the exchange rate an intelligent variable, which corrects mistakes at the next rate through the learning process. Hence, the course of exchange rate over time is expected to be nonlinear.The purpose of the present paper is to the test a nonlinear model estimating the response of inflation to real effective exchange rate in Iran. In order to examine threshold effects of exchange rate on inflation in Iran, following Posedel & Tica (2009), pattern was used:where inflation π is a function of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). The variable  is a dummy variable:  if the REER () is equal or bigger than the threshold () and  if the REER () is smaller than threshold ().

Finding based on time series data for the period 1971-2017 and Threshold Regression (TR) model indicates that real effective exchange rate of 6160.27 Rials has been applied as a threshold value. In other words, based on the above threshold value, the estimated model shows the exchange rate coefficient has increased somewhat from the first to the second regime.

Considering the fact that preserving the value of the national currency is one of the most important tasks of central banks and to control inflation, it seems necessary to give the due attention to exchange rate and its threshold impacts when planning, designing and implementing monetary and exchange policies. The results of this study suggests a policy guideline, namely, that, in order to limit the damaging effects of inflation on the economy and household welfare, monetary policymakers in Iran must restrain the foreign exchange shocks.

attention to social progress and human development for the creation and sustainability of the economy, especially in developing countries, is of particular importance and highlights the need to examine the impact of social progress on GDP of these countries.The statistics on the Human Development Index, the Human Development Index through the Social Progress Index, Capital and Employment Index, as well as GDP per capita in 104 countries are taken from the United Nations Development Program, the Social Development Index and the World Bank from 2014 to 2018, respectively.In order to investigate the effect of these variables on GDP, panel data method has been analyzed using Eviews10 software.The results of estimating panel data in the studied years showed that the impact of human development on GDP in two groups of middle to high income countries and high income countries is increasing and significant;Social progress in the transfer of the effect of human development to GDP in all four groups of countries has an increasing and significant effect;Finally, capital and employment have a significant increase in GDP per capita in high-income countries.

The growing wave of Iranian emigration has raised the question of how the process of migration to the mainly developed destinations, has an impact on the country’s foreign trade pattern. It seems that the migration of Iranians has caused serious losses for the country and the technical, scientific and economic capacities required by the country have been provided to the migrating countries, especially the developed ones, and in return, the emigrating of Iranians, who generally have knowledge, labor and capital, has led to the country's economic decline. Since intra-industry trade is sensitive to the components of technology and competitiveness, the main purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that the outflow and one-way migration has caused a decline in Iran’s intra-industry trade. For this purpose, the gravity panel data model with a logistic transformation for Iran with the main destinations of Iranian emigrants in the period of 2000-2018 has been used. The findings of the present study confirm the negative and significant effect of the unilateral trend of Iranian migration to the main destinations on intra industry trade of Iran with these countries. Accordingly, in order to prevent serious losses, it is strongly recommended that the worrying process of migration should be considered by policymakers and in this regard, a specific strategy in relation to international migration be established in national interests.

In the present study, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the smuggling rate of goods in two cases with and without sanctions in 1352-1398 has been investigated annually. In the present study, the Daubechies wavelet transform approach has been used to extract exchange rate fluctuations, and the principal component analysis approach has been used to extract the factor loading of the sanctions index. Finally, to investigate the effect of exchange rate fluctuations according to the period of fluctuations in two cases with and without the sanctions index on the smuggling rate of goods in the country, the Markov switching model has been used. The results show that increasing trade openness regardless of the level and regime of smuggling in the country significantly reduces smuggling. The increase in tax revenues has also had a positive and significant effect on all levels of smuggling. Increasing the size of government in a situation where the smuggling rate of goods is low, has a positive and significant impact on smuggling of goods. Short-term and long-term exchange rate fluctuations in the conditions without sanctions and with sanctions have had a positive and significant effect at all levels and regimes of smuggling of goods and the positive effect of long-term exchange rate fluctuations has been stronger, especially in terms of sanctions. The official exchange rate gap has also had a positive and significant effect on smuggling of goods in high regime. Therefore, the share of the National Development Fund in oil and gas sales revenues should be increased in order to increase the foreign exchange resources of the Central Bank, and in the event of sanctions, it can prevent exchange rate fluctuations, especially in the long run.

Government budget is an important policy-making tool to achieve allocation, distribution and stabilization goals that affect the economic performance of society through variables of government expenditures and revenues; accordingly, determining the optimal level of budget components is always important for the policy-making system. Therefore, the purpose of the current study is to assess the optimal level of government budget components for the period of the Sixth Economic, Social and Cultural Development Plan. To do so, the random optimal control approach was used in which the control amounts include tax revenues, government's consumption expenditures, government's acquisition of non-financial assets and liquidity. The result of this study shows optimal tax revenues, non-tax revenues, government's current payments, and government's acquisition of non-financial assets is less than the sixth plan amount and secondly, the largest gap between the optimal amounts and the amount of the Sixth Plan is related to government's acquisition of non-financial assets.

In the present paper we study the effect of oil prices on the financial development index based on the banking network and the stock market for the period 1357-1396 by using the Markov Switching Model. The results show that if the financial development based on the stock market is in a low regime, the increase in oil prices is not a curse for financial development, with no significant effect either positive or negative while if it is  in a high regime, then oil income acts as a curse and reduces the financial development of the stock market. If the financial development index is in the middle regime, the increase in oil prices will not be a curse and will not reduce bank financial development. Also, the variables of trade openness and economic growth have different effects depending on the type of financial development regime. According to the research results, the increase in oil prices and revenues does not always lead to a decrease in the country’s financial development. The impact depends on the stability and speed of financial development.

The gap between the price received by the producer and the price paid by the consumer is referred to as the marketing margin. How decision-makers, consumers and supply chain brokers make decisions is affected by various shocks.

In this study, a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model and impact-response functions were used to investigate shocks during the period 1974-2014.

The results showed that the shock of good news and technology leads to a positive deviation in production and a negative deviation in the marketing margin of the agricultural sector. Also, price fluctuations due to news and technology shocks in the Iranian economy move in line with the cycle of recession and prosperity. Thus, news and technology shocks play an important role in the fluctuations of important economic variables. Also, the impact of the media on the marketing margin of the agricultural sector, the importance of news and transparency in the economic environment should be considered by policy makers.

news shock in general leads to a negative deviation in the marketing margin and the marketing margin of the agricultural sector in particular. Also, price fluctuations due to technological shocks in the Iranian economy move in line with the cycle of recession and news boom, because the emergence of technological shocks leads to a positive deviation of production.

The informal economy is one of the most important influencing factors on the type of entrepreneurial activity. In this study, the role of the informal economy on the formation of entrepreneurial activities (opportunity and necessity-based entrepreneurship) with an emphasis on the institutional quality index in selected oil producing countries during the period 2018–2008 has been investigated. This was done by using the three stage least squares model. In addition, the MIMIC model was used to extract the hidden variable of the informal economy volume and the principal components. Furthermore, the analysis model was used to extract the institutional quality index.The results show that increasing unemployment, increasing tax rates and increasing natural resource rent lead to an increase in the informal economy in these countries, whereas an increase in the informal economy leads to a decrease in opportunity-based entrepreneurship and increases necessity-based entrepreneurship. These results suggest that if the goal is to improve opportunity-based entrepreneurship, macroeconomic policies should be designed to reduce unemployment and lower tax rates and natural resources rent, thereby reducing the size of the informal economy in these countries. In such circumstances, an increase in opportunistic entrepreneurship is possible and an improvement in the economic growth of this field can be expected.

The results show that if the stock index be in the low regime, the positive shock of oil revenues, liquidity, inflation, exchange rate and government debt to the banking network will lead to an increase in the stock index and the shock of economic growth will lead to a decrease in the stock index over time. when the stock index be in the high regime, the shock of the research variables has different behavior in different time periods. Given the high share of oil revenues in the countrychr(chr('39')39chr('39'))s budget and also its high share in explaining changes in the stock index, the dependence of the countrychr economy on oil revenues should be reduced as much as possible, while   external shocks such as changes in oil revenues and oil sanctions happened, liquidity, inflation, exchange rate and government debt to the banking network and ultimately the countrychr  economic growth are not so affected that the outcome can be effective in shaping the real behavior of the stock market and if stock market index increased for external shocks, high liquidity that created in the stock market do not lead to harmful economic effects.

In this study, the role of positive and negative shocks of exchange rate, stock index and oil price in the upper and lower values of the stock index threshold has been investigated by using the threshold structural vector autoregressive model in the period 1388:01-1397:09 on a monthly basis. The results show that in higher values of threshold of stock index, positive oil price shock, negative exchange rate shock and also negative stock index shock can reduce financial instability in the country, also in lower values of threshold of stock index, Positive shock of oil prices in the long run and negative shock of oil prices in the short and medium term, as well as negative shock of exchange rates in the short and medium term and positive shock of the stock index can reduce financial instability. According to the results, under any circumstances, supporting the stock market cannot reduce financial instability in the country. in higher values of threshold of stock index (growth of more than 6.8% of stock market index per month) positive shocks to the stock index increase financial instability in the country, but in lower values of threshold of stock index can be reducing financial instability in the country. Also, foreign exchange market stability should be formed in the country so that positive currency shocks do not increase financial instability in the country.

One of the goals of the government is to increase the competitiveness of domestic firms to export goods and services. Moreover, the role of exports in many economic sectors has been emphasized. There are two essential requirements for developing non-oil exports: first, the presence of firms in export markets and increasing their competitiveness; second, the survival of them in international markets. This paper assesses the impact of leverage on export survival by using the data of 16 Iranian manufacturing firms from 1999-2018. These companies operate in the agricultural and food industry and are indexed in the stock exchange market. Based on Cox semi-parametric model estimation, the main result is that leverage harms export survival.

The present paper intends to test the impact of these two variables of social progress and economic freedom on economic growth. Statistics related to the social progress, economic freedom and per capita gross domestic product in 128 countries are based on the Social Development Index, the Heritage Foundation and the World Bank in 2017, and are used the methods of decision tree and multiple regression. The results of the decision tree method show that there are significant differences in the rate of social progress and economic freedom between countries with different revenues. Also, the results of multiple regression estimations in the study year show that the variables of social progress and economic freedom in these countries have been effective and have a positive and significant effect on GDP per capita. Thus, with the effectiveness of these indicators, society will come toward development and economic and social well-being, and this society will be an ideal society.

This paper examines the impact of financial health on firms’ survival in export market based on heterogeneous firm hypothesis by using data of 138 companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during the 1379-1396. Initially, for determining financial health index, principal component analysis is used and then, by using flexible survival analysis, the effect of financial health on firm survival in export market is tested. The results show that financial variables are one of the Heterogeneous factors among firms and increase of financial health (decrease of financial constraint) reduces the possibility of exit from export market.

decline in private sector investment expenditures, crowding-out effect, lack of conditions for optimal allocation of resources, reduction inefficiency, and the possibility of increasing inequality in income distribution are considered as the effects of increasing the government size according to many theoretical studies and empirical evidence. Hence, identifying the determinants of the government size and contribution of each of them is very important. In this study, in addition to inflation and economic growth rate, the effect of financial openness measures on the government size in selected countries such as Iran has been tested experimentally. In the present paper, Chinn and Ito's indicators are used as variables of financial openness measure. Also, to analyze the sensitivity of the results to the statistical sample, the econometric model for the two groups of countries with high and low GDP per capita (2000-2016) was estimated by the Generalized Moment Method (GMM). The results showed that in both groups of studied countries an increase in the degree of financial openness will reduce the size of the government, but this effect is more in countries with high GDP per capita and minimal in countries by low GDP per capita. In high GDP per capita countries, the relationship between inflation and government size is positive and significant, and the relationship between GDP per capita and government size is negative and significant. But the study of low GDP per capita countries shows a negative and significant relationship between inflation and government size and a positive and significant relationship between GDP per capita and government size. Besides, according to research findings, the economic growth rate has the largest impact on government size in both groups of countries.

Economis growth is one of the main factors for evaluating the performance of governments. Economic growth itself is influenced by other factors that have been addressed in growth theories. Among the factors examined in growth theories, technical progress is of particular importance due to its long-term effects on growth. In recent growth models, the technological progress considered an endogenous factor which is influenced by the other variables. The present study seeks to investigate the effect of monetary shocks on technical progress in Iran during 1996-2004, using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model.The results of this study showed that the shock of increase in money base through increasing the amount of investment in knowledge would lead to an increase in technology growth. Considering the impact of monetary policy on technical progress in a recession-inflationary situation which there is a need of production increase, especially for a monetary authority to stimulate supply in the economy, is the policy recommendation of this paper.