فهرست مطالب gholamreza yavari

After cereals, oilseeds form the second largest food reserve in the world. Sesame has been one of the oldest oil plants in the world, which is known as the queen of oil plants due to its pleasant taste, high stability and stability, high resistance to dryness and the fact that the oil does not oxidize. Sesame is considered as an oil-protein source and sesame seeds contain 34-60% oil and 19-30% protein. Rapeseed is another oilseed that has more than 40% of oil in the seed and about 40% of protein in its meal, which plays an important role in human nutrition and animal and poultry feed.Climate change is a significant and persistent change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns that occurs over a long period of time in a specific region or for the entire global climate. In fact, this phenomenon occurs as a result of internal factors such as dynamic processes of the earth or external factors such as changes in the intensity of sunlight or human activities.As a result of climate change, the average weather variables such as temperature and precipitation do not remain constant and change in different regions.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate climate change and predict its effects on the performance and well-being of the producer and the well-being of the consumer of the two products of sesame and canola. The required meteorological and agricultural data were collected in the form of combined data for two crops during 1370-1398. Using weather forecasting scenarios, the performance of two products was predicted. Finally, with the help of non-linear programming model, consumer welfare, producer welfare and total welfare were calculated and predicted using the partial balance method. Eviews, Excel and GAMS software were used to conduct this study. Khuzestan province was zoned into three climatic zones for more accurate estimation of yield response function.

In this research, the climatic conditions of Iran in the decades of 2000, 2025, 2050 and 2100 were modeled using the output of two atmospheric general circulation models ECHAM4 and HadCM 2. The results show an increase in the temperature of all the provinces of the country in the coming decades. These two models predicted an average temperature increase of 3 to 3.6 degrees Celsius until the 2100s for the country. The panel data method is used to estimate the climate model.

According to the results obtained from the calculation of welfare, it was found that the welfare surplus of the producer is higher than the welfare surplus of the consumer, and the results obtained from the welfare forecast according to the climate scenarios show that the amount of welfare generally follows a decreasing trend with fluctuation and The amount of losses caused by climate change has been higher for consumers than for producers.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the possible changes of yield and related welfare of two major groups of cereals and vegetable crops as a result of two climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) variations in Khuzestan province. For estimation of crop response production function of selected study crops, meteorological data including rainfall, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and relative humidity of 13 stations across the province for the years 1991 to 2019 were collected. Crop response production functions for different climate zones of the province were determined and possible effects of climatic variation on producer / consumer welfare were assessed. According to the results, the welfare of the cereal crops, the producer welfare surplus is higher than the consumer welfare surplus. A decreasing trend in welfare was observed under climate change scenarios. Also, the obtained results of projected welfare of the vegetables crops showed that the consumer welfare surplus is higher than the producer welfare surplus. In general, the welfare surplus of cereals is higher than that of summer vegetable crops and hence as a adaption strategy, cereal cultivation may be recommended.

Examining the potential effects of this event, which has received more and more attention from the international community, is an important step in the development of agricultural activities in Tehran province.

In the present study, using the approach of state or regional agricultural production model (SWAP), the economic behavior of Tehran farmers after participating in the structural institution of the local water market was modeled.

The results showed that with the establishment of local water market in Tehran province, in addition to sustainable balancing of water resources, it is possible to develop the acreage of irrigated products, albeit profitable in the cropping pattern of less water regions (Shahrerey and Varamin plains) and by balancing farmers’ gross profit, the negative consequences of the hydrological drought phenomenon are reduced to about 35.3% compared to the base period.

Establishing a local water market as a structural institution with private property rights in Tehran province can transfer surplus water resources in the study areas of southwestern Tehran province (regions C, D and E).

Sustainability of agricultural businesses is one of the significant factors to reach sustainable economic development. As a result, the goal of this study was to examine both internal and external factors that affect the sustainability of agricultural businesses in the province of Golestan. In this descriptive-survey study, 160 samples were chosen using G-power software from a statistical population of agribusiness owners (N= 124280) in the province who were active in various areas of the food supply chain. A researcher-made questionnaire served as the study's measurement instrument, and the reliability of the tool was determined by calculating Cronbach's alpha and it was validated by receiving expert judgments. Software such as SMARTPLS4 were used for the data analysis. According to the findings, the individual and family index had the least impact on business sustainability, with a coefficient of 0.199, and the economic-financial index, with a coefficient of 0.332 had the greatest impact. Additionally, the political-legal index with a coefficient of 0.224 and the index of promotional interventions (external-organizational) with a coefficient of 0.203 had the largest and least impact on business sustainability, respectively. Additionally, the results showed that external organizational elements rather than internal organizational factors have a bigger influence on the sustainability of agricultural businesses. According to the findings, it is advised that the government should provide more favorable conditions for the sustainability of agricultural business through reforming and strengthening its policies by applying flexible procedures and systems and removing legal obstacles

The thriving and efficient future market for agricultural products can contribute to the development process in this sector. In fact, increasing the efficiency of the agricultural market, reducing marketing margins and improving the warehousing network, packaging and distributing products, along with the development of investment in the agricultural sector, are a set of factors that can accelerate the growth and development of the agricultural sector. Obviously, the benefits will be obtained if there is an instant, enormous and active market, and the first condition for the success of a future agricultural market is the existence of suitable and consistent future contracts and agricultural economy in Iran. So, the questions to be answered in this study included: Which agricultural products are able to launch a futures market? What are the order and priorities of these products to enter the futures market? This research was conducted with a mixed approach including a qualitative-quantitative method. Therefore, the data were analyzed in two phases: the first phase used a qualitative method for identifying the necessary standards of different products to enter the future market, and the second phase used a quantitative method to measure the identified standards by calculating the identified indicators; and finally, the regression model was estimated to calculate the future value. The identification of standards (phase 1) was based on the qualitative methodology of the grounded theory; and using the six standards identified in the previous phase, the standards and the value of future transactions for different products were calculated (phase 2). The required data were collected for the period 2008-2017, including the necessary variables to proxy the value of future transactions and the volume and price of transactions from the Agricultural Commodity Exchange (ACE), the price of agricultural products and the yields of products from the statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (MAJ), the amount of export and import from the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA), the total cost from the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI), and the level of homogeneity from the opinions of experts and the comments received from the concerned professionals. This study aimed at identifying the necessary standards and ranking of agricultural products for trading in future markets. For this purpose, 12 agricultural products that were not accepted in the commodity exchange and future markets were examined. Firstly, using the grounded theory through interviews with experts, the necessary standards for the acceptance of agricultural products in the future market were identified. Then, a quantitative calculation of standards and finally, an estimation of regression and ranking of products to enter the future market were determined. Using interview coding and research background, the necessary standards for acceptance in the future markets were found as follows: income risk of products, cash market size, liquidity cost, degree of homogeneity, degree of commerciality and perishability. Also, the examined products based on the value of future exchanges, in order of priority, included fodder corn, pistachios, dates, raisins, canola, grain corn, peas, soybeans, lentils, wheat, tea, and barley. The fodder corn, pistachios, dates and raisins products were the first products obtained the highest values, respectively, for futures trading, based on the estimated model and obviously, the products with more value for futures trading might be more successful in futures trading. Therefore, it is suggested that the policy makers of the agricultural sector consider the six mentioned factors in creating the future market of agricultural products. It is necessary for policymakers of the agricultural sector to consider that soybeans, rapeseed, chickpeas, seed corn and fodder are the most homogeneous and barley, pistachio and tea products are the most heterogeneous products among all exchangeable goods in the future markets of selected agricultural products. Therefore, it is expected that more homogeneous products will have a higher level of prosperity and success due to the high standardization and grading capabilities that are essential for exchangeable products in the future markets.

The agriculture section as a subsection of our economy receives the most impact under the climate fluctuations. Climate change is an unsustainable factor affecting the yield of agricultural crops. Therefore, agricultural production, especially rainfed cultivation, has a high correlation with climatic factors. Climate change, in addition to affecting the production of agricultural crops, affects the sustainability and performance of agricultural products by influencing water resources. Agricultural product performance forecasting is one of the management tools in agricultural sector planning and policy making. The purpose of the current study was to evaluate the yield and production rate of three summer crops including cucumber, tomato and watermelon due to climate change in Khuzestan province and their prediction for the years 2025 to 2100.

In order to evaluate the reaction function of summer crops yield in Khuzestan province, meteorological data including precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and relative humidity of 13 meteorological stations including Ahvaz, Izeh, Andimeshk, Mahshahr, Behbahan, Dezful, Azadegan, Ramhormoz, Shushtar, Masjed Soleiman, Omidieh, Shadegan and Shoush was collected during the years 1991 to 2020. Excel and SPSS software were used to calculate and analyze the indicators. The climatic indices of Khuzestan province were divided into two climatic regions. Region (1) included Ahvaz, Mahshahr, Behbahan, Shoushtar, Omidie, Shadegan and Shoush, and region (2) included Dezful, Azadegan, Ramhormoz, Masjed Soliman and Andimeshk. The yield function of three products including cucumber, tomato and watermelon at two regions was estimated using panel data and Eviews software. Then, the yield and production rate of crops were predicted using the climate forecasting scenarios for the years 2025 to 2100.

The results showed that temperature had a negative and significant effect on the yield of tomato in region (1) and region (3), but it had a positive and significant effect on the yield of region (2). Rainfall had a negative and significant effect on the yield of tomato in region (1). But rainfall had a positive and significant effect on the yield of crops in region (2) and (3). Humidity had a positive and significant effect on tomato in region (1) and (2), but it had a negative effect on region (3). Temperature had a positive and significant effect on cucumber yield in region (1) and region (3). But it had a negative effect on the yield of cucumber in region (2). Rainfall had a positive and significant effect on cucumber yield in region (1) and (3). But it had a negative effect on the performance of region (2). Humidity also had a positive effect on the performance of cucumber in region (1), but it had a negative effect on the performance of region (2) and (3). Temperature had a negative and significant effect on watermelon yield in region (1) and (3), but it had a positive effect on watermelon yield in region (2). Rainfall had a negative and significant effect on the yield of watermelon in region (1), but it did not have a significant effect on the yield of region (2) and (3). Humidity had a negative and significant effect on the yield of watermelon in region (1) and (3), but it had a positive and significant effect on the yield of region (2). Also, the results showed that the highest percentage of yield changes in climate scenarios were related to cucumber in region (3) and watermelon and tomato in region (2). The results of forecasting the production rate of selected crops during the years 2100-2025 showed that the highest production rate was related to tomato in region (2), watermelon in region (2) and watermelon in region (1). Based on the results, during the years 2100-2025, the cultivated area of tomato crop in region (1) showed a more downward trend, but the cultivated area of cucumber crop in region (1) showed a more upward trend.

The results of yield forecasting until year 2100 showed that cucumber crop in region (3) and watermelon and tomato crops in region (2) have respectively higher increase rate of yield. Also, results demonstrated that in region (2), tomato and watermelon have higher production rate, respectively. Given to adverse effects of climate change on the production of studied crops and in order to prevent considerable reduction of production rate, solutions should be provided to adapt more to climate conditions, such as changing the cultivation pattern, optimal management of resources and production of varieties resistant to climate change. Therefore, according to the obtained results, it could be stated that region (2) has a relative advantage in the production of watermelon and tomato crops.

in the present study, the integration of comprehensive Hydrological -economic modeling system of agriculture and water resources in Tehran province was investigated, in order to assess the potential effects of global warming. To achieve this goal, first using General Circulation Models (GCM) the effects of greenhouse gases on the average climatic variables of temperature and precipitation under the emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 were investigated. This was done with the help of GCM/RCM data system and LARS-WG microscale model. Then, using econometric approach and regression analysis, the effects of climatic variables of temperature and precipitation on the average yield of selected products were evaluated. A Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model was used to investigate changes in products yields on cropping patterns. The results showed that the behavior of climatic variables of temperature and precipitation during the future periods in the study basins of Tehran province compared to the base period will increase (0/26 to 3/75 °c) and decrease (0/78 to 41/1 mm) respectively.

In this study, the market power in the marketing chain and the marketing margin of apple products in the Iran have been investigated. The share of the farm in the price paid by the consumer is often considered as an indicator of the relative health of the agricultural sector, which is called the marketing margin. One of the reasons for the large marketing margin is the presence of market power in the supply chain of agricultural products, so according to The importance of apple product for the agricultural sector of the country, as apple has the first rank of production in the country, in this study, using the time series data of the years 1394-1399, which was extracted from the statistics center and ministries of agricultural jihad, it has been tried to Measuring market power and marketing margin using Lerner index and mark-up model, The results of the study show that during the period under review, about 56% of the total price paid by consumers for each kilogram of apples was obtained by wholesalers and retailers, and in the supply chain of apple products, these retailers have more market power. And the results show that the presence of market power in the apple product supply chain has caused the price paid by the consumer to be about 2.4 times the price received by the producer.

Concerns about market power and anti-competitive behavior in the agricultural sector are widespread, with studies showing that farmers are structurally in a weaker position than other market players, and that stronger supply chain actors systematically abuse their power over farmers and consumers. Therefore, this study investigates and estimates the behavior of market power in the marketing chain of horticultural products (for the case of orange fruits), using the Lerner index and the mark-up econometric model for the weekly product price data in the period of years 1394-99. The results of the Lerner index estimation show that the market power of wholesalers and retailers are 48% and 38% respectively. The obtained market power of 38% can be interpreted as follows: the 38% difference between retail and wholesale price is related to market power and 62% of this difference is based on the final cost. In other words, by using their market power, retailers have been able to charge 38% more than the price that was set based on the equality of the price with the final cost, according to the competitive market condition. Also, the results of the mark-up model also show the impact of price changes in each market level on the market power of other market levels.

Implementing sustainable development of regions requires careful planning based on talents and resource constraints, and the climate of each region is one of the most important factors determining the development potential of the place. In this regard, climatic characteristics and its dominant elements that play a decisive role in the dispersal and formation of vital phenomena (plants, animals, humans) are considered as one of the most important natural-environmental factors. If the guarantee of complete success of most agricultural development plans, industry, irrigation projects, transportation, health, etc. is achieved when it is accompanied by knowledge of the climate and the use of its various potentials. The purpose of this study is to classify the climate of Khuzestan province based on litany-skiing method. The litany-skiing method uses the three basic elements of temperature, precipitation and coefficient. This method uses auxiliary indicators for comprehensive classification, which include three indicators of compliance, dry season duration and solar radiation status.To calculate meteorological data index including precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and relative humidity of 13 meteorological stations including Ahvaz, Izeh, Andimeshk, Mahshahr, Behbahan, Dezful, Azadegan, Ramhormoz, Shushtar, Masjed Soleiman, Omidieh, Shadegan and Shousha during 1991. Collected until 1397. Excel and SPSS software were used to calculate and analyze the indicators. The results showed that the climatic situation of Khuzestan cities was divided into 4 groups based on the coefficient of lithium ski index.

In this study first, a suitable economic planning model for agricultural water resources management in Kerman province was presented. Then the potential impacts of water supply policy plans on its agricultural sub-sector were evaluated.

In the implementation section, a three-stage calibration of a comprehensive economic model based on the positively mathematical programming (PMP) method and the maximum entropy (ME) approach were used. The required data and information are for years 2017-2018 that documentary and regional studies approach (regions A, B and C in master plan of provincial cropping pattern) through the organization of agriculture and water resources management in Kerman province were collected.

The results show that with implementation of supply-side policies, cropping patterns are developing towards acreage of low water and cereal products in different areas of Kerman province and products such as onions, cotton and vegetables have the largest reduction in cropping pattern. Under these conditions, farmers pay about one-third of the real value of agricultural water inputs in the form of water extraction and transportation costs and farmers southern Kerman province have the lowest level price elasticity of water demand (0.175). Corn and potatoes respectively, by maintaining and sustaining acreage in A (Agriculture in dry conditions) and C (agriculture in tropical conditions) regions provide optimal patterns to supply needs in these region and adjacent region.

Therefore, under conditions of water supply reduction policy the suggested patterns in the northern regions of Kerman province (A) are better optimal than other regions patterns (B and C).

Development and prosperity of agricultural businesses is an entrepreneurial activity in facilitating the relationship between the agricultural sector and other economic sectors in line with the goals of economic growth and development of the country is considered a necessity. The objectives of this study were to economic assessment of edible mushrooms production using profitability indicators such as net present value (NPV), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), Return on Sale and Return on Investment in percentage and internal rate of return (IRR). The data of this study were related to the establishment of an edible mushroom production business in Kahrizak sanatorium for the Disabled in Alborz province by donors, which was collected in 2019 by documentary methods. The results showed that the capital and current costs of creating a 5-ton hall in the first year were estimated at 347.8 and 213.7, respectively, and a total of 561.5 Iranian million rials.  During the ten-year analysis period, the average percent of sale return and the average percent of cost return were estimated 22.1 and 28.5 percent,  respectively. The net present value of activity was estimated at 60.7 Iranian million rials with discount rate of 18% and benefit- cost ratio was estimated at 1.04. The internal rate of return of edible mushroom production was calculated to be 23.3%, that it is more than discount rate, thus, to create the edible mushroom production activity was economic in the Alborz province.

Potato production is considered as one of the strategic objectives of Iran’s agricultural programs.The present study aimed at investigating the production costs and economic benefits of this product in Ardabil city. To do so, 183 potato producers were randomly selected and were asked to present their ideas concerning the production costs and benefits through a questionnaire and an interview. A field study was also taken into consideration to enrich the data. The collected data were analyzed through measures of Chi-square, Wald test, and Translog cost function. The results revealed that the cost function structure was non-hemotetic with respect to the Chi-square statistics (36.8) and results of the constant non-returns and non-homogeneous Wald test to the scale’s F- statistics (17.04) were non-cobb Douglas. Allen cross replacement relationship was positive for the dichotomies such as workforce and machinery, machine and seed, workforce and seed, workforce and water, and finally seed and water. However, it was negative for machinery and land inputs, machinery and water, land and machinery, land and labor force, land and seeds, and land and water. The calculated cost elasticity was -1.5044 which indicated a decrease in the average costs for an output increase as the production cost was found in the downstream part of the cost curve. The economies of scale of 2.504 indicated a 2.5 percent increase in the yield for one-percent increase in the cost.

The separability of consumer desires is a necessary and sufficient condition for multi-stage budgeting and Collectivization is consistent of commodity where costs are allocated between edible groups using price indices and intergroup allocations are made independently of other groups. Given the high share of meat types (23 percent of household food and beverage expenditure) in the household budget and the important nutritional role of meat in people's health, in this study, to determine the consumption pattern of meat products in Iran used to Rotterdam demand function. In empirical studies of demand, the concept of separation is used to correctly estimate demand function and limit the number of parameters. For this purpose, data related to price index and cost of meat types (livestock, birds, fish) central Bank over the years 1995-2016 were used. The results of the separability tests support the hypothesis that consumers first divide their income between 13 meat products in three groups (livestock, birds, fish) assigns and then approves the allocation action between the types of meat subgroups that are grouped. Also results of system estimation showed that the groups had a negative intrinsic price elasticity.In the meantime, the price elasticity of groups livestock meat, birds and fish meat are respectively equal to -0.89, -0.59 and -0.77. The basic suggestion of the present study is that prior to any action on the demand system approach there should be weak separability tests.

Assessing the potential effects of drought in agriculture and water resources management, as well as providing solutions to deal with it, is an important step in the development of agricultural activities. Therefore, in the present study the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to determine the different intensities of drought and its occurrence was used during the study period (2002-2018). Then, by using the Positive Mathematical Planning (PMP) model, the potential effects of drought on the cropping pattern and farmers' livelihoods of in the southern basin of Tehran province were analyzed. The required data are documentary and registered in the relevant government agencies which were collected in two sections, time series (2002-2018) and cross-section (2017-2018). The results showed that the probability of severe drought in the southern basin of Tehran province is about 6/25 percent. Decreasing the acrage of high consumption water products such as watermelon, corn, sunflower and increasing the acrage of wheat and barley are other obtained results under drought conditions in Tehran province. Decrease of 3/00 to 19/4 percent of farmers' gross profit and increase of 13/2 to 115/6 percent of the economic value of irrigation water are other consequences of this phenomenon under mild to severe intensities. According to the obtained results in this study, in order to reduce the risk of hydrological drought and farmers' exposure with this event in southern basin of Tehran province, in the first step it is recommended that the modification of optimal cropping patternin in order to reduce the acrage of water-filled products (such as sunflower and watermelon) and replace it with the acrage of products with higher profit to water ratio (such as corn and canola) be prioritized. In the next step, it is suggested that due to the elasticity of agricultural water input to price changes in the southern basin of Tehran province (ewater = -0/96), the correct implementation of water pricing policy in accordance with the trend of changes in the economic value of water input and observance of the principle equality consideration in drought conditions should be considered by the public sector.

The agriculture section as a subsection of our economy receives the highest impact from climate change. Wheat is one of the most important strategic products in the world and its yield and quantity are significant for humans and animals. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the likely effects of climate change on wheat production in Hormozgan Province (2004-2018). In order to more accurately estimate the function of wheat yield to climatic components, the climatic indices of Hormozgan Province were divided into two climatic regions. Using weather scenarios, the yield, product and crop area of the wheat crop were predicted for the years 2025 to 2100. Finally, consumer welfare, producer welfare and overall welfare were calculated using nonlinear programming model and partial equilibrium method. The results showed that the factors temperature and management have inverse and rainfall and technology have direct relationship with the wheat yield. Projections showed a declining trend for yield, production and crop area up to the year 2100 where Area 2 had a higher reduction than Area 1. The results showed that the wheat production suffered higher reduction due to climate change compared to the reduced acreage. The overall welfare showed a decreasing trend for years to come and consumers will experience more harm than producers. Therefore, due to the different effects of climate change on wheat products, it is advisable to find ways to adapt to the climatic conditions. These attempts include but are not limited to changing the region's cultivation pattern, optimal management of the resources and producing climate resistant seeds.

in the present study evaluation of the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on the yield and cropping pattern of selected products in Tehran province were investigated. In order to assess the potential effects of drought, global warming and the establishment of local or regional water markets. To achieve this goal, first using general circulation models (GCM) the effects of greenhouse gases on the average climatic variables of temperature and precipitation under the emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 were investigated. This was done with the help of GCM/RCM data system and LARS-WG microscale model. Then, using econometric approach and regression analysis, the effects of climatic variables of temperature and precipitation on the average yield of selected products were evaluated. A positive mathematical programming (PMP) model to investigate changes of products yields on cropping patterns was used. The results showed that the behavior of climatic variables of temperature and precipitation during the future periods in Tehran province compared to the base period will increase (0/27 to 3/75 °c) and decrease (0/63 to 41/1 mm) respectively. Increasing the farmers’ desire to develop the acreage of irrigated wheat, corn and canola and reducing the acreage of irrigated barley, tomato, watermelon and sunflower in the cropping patterns of of Tehran province is an important result of application of integrated climate scenario (2 °c increase in temperature and 20 mm decrease in precipitation) in this study. Under the terms of climate change occurrence, watermelon and sunflower with the most decreasing changes in yield (13/1 and 17/7 %) and acreage (68/8 and 31/9 %) as the most sensitive products in cropping pattern of Tehran province were identified. Therefore, planning to reduce or develop the their acrage in the cropping pattern of Tehran province is recommended to farmers and relevant officials in the agricultural sector during future periods.

Iran's economy has been managed by development programs for more than half a century. Among the various economic sectors, the agricultural sector, owing to its place in the Iranian economy, has been of considerable importance in development programs after the Islamic Revolution. In each program, according to its time, important policies and tasks are defined for it. Despite policymakers' continued emphasis on the importance of the agricultural sector, this sector has not had a great impact on the growth and development of the country yet. The many challenges it faces indicate a failure to achieve the goals mentioned in the development plans. Therefore, it is necessary to study the pathology of the development programs and examines the reasons as why the goals of the development programs have not been achieved. Therefore, this study aims to determine and prioritize the obstacles and challenges facing the first to the fifth programs of social, economic and cultural development of the Islamic republic of Iran in the sectors of agriculture and natural resources.

The present study is applied in terms of purpose and analytical-descriptive in terms of nature. The data were collected through library work and survey. The data collection tool in this research was a questionnaire. The questionnaire was designed using a review of sources related to the rules of development programs and conducting qualitative interviews. The validity and reliability were assessed for the research tool. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by a five-member panel of experts. To evaluate the reliability of the questionnaire, Cronbach's alpha test was used with the estimate of 0.85. After the modification and the validity and reliability test, the final questionnaire was developed for a hierarchical analysis. The final questionnaire consisting of three sections was designed according to the purpose of the research. In the first part, the individual characteristics of the studied sample were examined. In the second part, the questions were raised for pair comparison and determination of the degree of importance of the main criteria, including the six main factors of failure to achieve the goals of development programs. The third section discusses the pairwise comparison and determining the degree of importance of the sub-criteria including 58 sub-components of failure to achieve the goals of development programs in the agricultural sector. The statistical population of this study included the agricultural experts in organizations and universities as well as producers. The non-probability and snowball sampling methods were used to collect information. Using this method, 50 people were identified and studied. Finally, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) decision-making method was used to conduct the research.

The research findings were reviewed in two sections. In the first part, the demographic characteristics of the studied sample were examined. They included age, gender, work and educational characteristics. In the second part, in order to prioritize the obstacles and challenges of not achieving the goals of development programs in agriculture and natural resources, the AHP method was used. The first step in the AHP method was to create a hierarchical structure from the items under study, namely the objectives, criteria and sub-criteria as shown in Figure 1. In the next step, the incompatibility coefficient (IR) was used to examine the consistency in the judgments.  According to the results of the pairwise comparison, the adjustment rate of the main criteria was 0.00352 Given that it was less than 0.1, the results of the main criteria were optimal. The compatibility rate of the six sub-criteria was less than 0.1 too, and the results were confirmed and lay in the desired range. After the compatibility rate of the composite matrices was confirmed, the ranking of the criteria and the sub-criteria was analyzed. Based on the results of prioritization of the main criteria in the order of importance, structural-managerial barriers with a relative weight of 0.228, economic barriers with a relative weight of 0.200, political barriers with a relative weight of 0.156, scientific barriers with a relative weight of 0.153, executive barriers with a relative weight of 0.137, and socio-cultural barriers with a relative weight of 0.127 were ranked from one to six.

This study aims to determine and prioritize the obstacles and challenges to the achievement of the goals of the first to the fifth programs of social, economic and cultural development of Iran in the agriculture sector. According to the objectives of the research, 58 sub-criteria were identified and analyzed under six main criteria. In order to conduct the research, the decision-making method of AHP was used, and the opinions of 50 relevant specialists were considered. The results of the pairwise comparison and prioritization of the main criteria of the research showed that structural-managerial barriers are of the first importance, and economic barriers are of the second importance. Also, political barriers, scientific barriers, executive barriers and socio-cultural barriers were in the third to the sixth priority respectively. In general, there are major reasons for the failure to achieve the goals of the development programs in the agriculture sector in economic, executive and structural domains. The most important financial and economic problems are the lack of capital resources, the reduction of government budgets and the lack of various financing models. As executive and managerial problems, one can mention government management, the existence of cumbersome laws, the worn-out executive system and the lack of meritocracy. In the field of structural and infrastructural problems, there is the lack of a purposeful support system in relation to infrastructure development, education and research, insurance system and product support.

Bushkan is one of the most important plains of Bushehr province which is considered as the agricultural pole of this province. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change on the cropping patterns in different areas of Bushkan plain. Accordingly, in this study, the WEAP model and its agro-economic model, MABIA, have been used to study the hydrological status of the plain. Finally, using the positive mathematical programming (PMP), the effects of climate change on the cropping patterns in different areas of the Bushkan plain has been studied. The results show that by applying RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the water availability of different regions of Bushkan Plain during the 2018-2050 period is reduced by an average of 6 and 12 percent. By applying these changes to the positive mathematical programming, it was found that the total area under the cultivation of six areas is greatly reduced. According to this fallow agricultural lands is suggested as an appropriate solution to prevent long-term damage to agricultural production in the region.

Rice is the second strategic product after wheat and one of the most widely consumed food products in the country. Population growth, consumption and growing demand, price fluctuations and welfare effects due to changes in the amount and price of rice require the attention and planning and foresight of policymakers and the countrychr('39')s planning system. In this study, in the framework of inverse demand system, rice types (foreign rice 1 and 2 as well as four types of domestic rice) using cross-sectional data related to consumption and expenditure of urban households during the years 96-1392 were estimated by seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SURE) method. And from 4 systems of reverse demand IADIS, IROT, INBR and ICBS Only the inverse demand system IADIS It is compatible with the data of the research method and according to the results of the statistics, the correlation ratio is superior to the other three models In order to study the welfare effects, four scenarios were defined and by compensating the compensatory and equilibrium effects and combined changes were determined.  Due to the share of more than 60% of first grade foreign rice and second grade foreign rice in the expenditure share of urban households, a change in the amount of consumption of this type of rice compared to domestic rice can have a more significant impact on household welfare. The results of changing the values of different types of rice on their prices in the form of different scenarios showed that if the consumption values of imported rice decrease, the price of this rice will increase. However, the rate of price change for different types of rice is not the same, and its intensity depends on the amount of traction and the scale of each. On the other hand, the demand for different types of rice will increase in the future for various reasons, including population growth, which if this increase in demand is not accompanied by an increase in market value, will increase the price of various types of rice.

Consumption of insects as alternative sustainable source of protein for humans and animals has been promoted. Other than nutritional benefits, insects could increase cost-effectiveness of food or feed systems. The present research aims to use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to prioritize the challenges lying ahead of breeding and consumption of insects as feed and food in view of consumers.

This study was conducted by a descriptive-analytical method. The participants were inhabitants of Tehran (capital city of Iran). The current challenges ahead of edible insects were investigated according to the opinions of experts in the field and review of the relevant literatures. A questionnaire was prepared and further completed by 20 experts. The challenges were identified as eight criteria including economy, infrastructure, health and food, culture and attitude, management and support, legal limitation, sustainable development, and education. Then, 83 sub-criteria were defined for the eight criteria. In order to prioritize the criteria and the sub-criteria, a hierarchical tree was designed. At the end, paired comparison matrices were analyzed by Expert Choice 11 software and relative/final weights of the criteria and the sub-criteria were calculated.

Results showed that “health and food” with final weight of 0.335, “culture and attitude” with final weight of 0.222, and “education” with final weight of 0.190 were the top three challenges. Importantly, incompatibility rate was less than 0.1 in all cases. At sub-criteria level, acceptability of edible insects by people in term of “taste and odor”, “existence of pathogenic microorganisms”, and “possible poisoning in human” with final weights of 0.049, 0.037, and 0.035, respectively, were considered as the most important challenges. Our evaluation revealed that health-related issues were the main challenges in acceptance of insects as feed and food in Iran.

Exchange rate and oil prices are the important factors for foreign trade in any country and even fluctuation in these variables will affect the economic and trade growth. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of exchange rate and oil price fluctuations on trade balance of Iran's agriculture sector with its 8 major trading partner over the period 1998 to 2017 and examine also the existence of the J Curve in these countries. To this end, linear and nonlinear ARDL models were utilized based on literature and tried to determine lung-run and short run effect of underling variables. Then, the results of linear and non-linear ARDL models were compared.
Materials and Methods

Since eight countries, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq, Afghanistan, Turkey, Korea, India, Germany and China are Iran's largest trading partners during 1998-2017, we focused on these countries. In this context, the model proposed by Oskoee et al. (2011) has been used to evaluate the impact of exchange rate and oil price fluctuations on agriculture trade balance. To capture the exchange rate and oil price fluctuations, the GARCH family models were applied (including EGARCHT, GARCH, SAGARCH, and NGARCH). Time series of exchange rate and oil price fluctuations which are extracted from GARCH models, are expected to be stationary. So, according to the empirical studies, the ARDL model is an appropriate model. However, both linear and nonlinear ARDL models were estimated. To specify trade balance equation, variables including Iran's GDP, GDP of eight trading partner countries, exchange rate, Oil prices fluctuations, exchange rate fluctuations and economic sanctions have been used. We used the ADF unit root test to check stationary of the variables.

The estimated results of the GARCH family models show that the sum of the coefficients of α+β for Turkey, Iraq, India, China, Afghanistan, Germany, and Korea are 0.88, 0.94, 1, 0.92, and 0.82, respectively. As the sum of the coefficients must be between 0 and 1, the predicted fluctuations series of exchange rate are stationary and also the predicted fluctuations series is as well. After obtaining fluctuations series of exchange rate and oil price, the number of optimal lags should be determined in ARDL model. According to the FPE criterion, the optimal lag is two and according to the AIC and SBC the optimal one is three.  Since the number of observations is low, the optimal lag number was selected two and the Linear and non-linear ARDL model was estimated. The results revealed that if Iran's GDP increased by 1%, the trade balance between Iran and Turkey would  improve by 18.20% and this value for Iraq, Afghanistan, UAE, China, Germany, Korea would be 59.07, 8.40, 26.28, 91.17, 16.32, 0.16, 22.02 respectively. In the long run, if Turkey's GDP rises 1%, the trade balance between Iran and Turkey will improve 14.34%. Moreover, if GDP in Iraq, Afghanistan, UAE, Chinese, German, Korean climb by 1%, the trade balance reaches 38.31, 7.003, 10.41, 17.99, 0.39 24.6 respectively. If the exchange rate rises 1% in Iraq and Germany, the trade balance will improve roughly 26.9, 69.4 respectively. Escalating National currency in Turkey and India has reverse effects on the trade balance. In fact, as the exchange rate rises, imports from Turkey and India increased and this contradiction may be due to sanctions and economic conditions. In China and India, positive and negative fluctuation has positive and negative effects on the trade balance. Indeed, by increasing the positive exchange rate fluctuations, the trade balance would improve and with the negative exchange rate fluctuations (the exchange rate decline) the trade balance might worsen. In the nonlinear ARDL method, exchange rate fluctuations in India and China are positive and have significant effect, and it shows that there is a j-curve between Iran and these countries. Also separating exchange rate fluctuations in positive and negative groups can prove the existence of the j Curve.

According to the results, the highest value of agricultural exports is related to Iraq and the least is to Korea. The UAE has the highest imports from Iran and Iraq has the lowest one. The co-integration test reveals that the underlining variables follow and influence each other in the long run. Based on previous studies and predicted signs for coefficients of the variables in the models, the non-linear ARDL model provides better results. The finding showed that GDP of 8 countries were positive and had significant effects and Iran's GDP was negative and significant in these eight countries. In the long run, an oil price fluctuation in Turkey, Afghanistan, Germany and India has positive and significant impact. In fact, as oil prices increase, the agricultural trade balance improves. In the short run, as oil prices rise, the agricultural trade balance would decline in countries such as Turkey, Germany and India and increase in Iraq and China. By dividing the exchange rate fluctuations into positive and negative parts, we conclude that positive exchange rate fluctuations in China and India have a positive effect on the trade balance and negative fluctuations have a negative effect on the trade Balance. The current study confirmed the existence of the J curve in India and China.

The separability of consumer desires is a necessary condition for multi-stage budgeting and collectivization is consistent of commodity where costs are allocated between edible groups using price indices and intergroup allocations are made independent of other groups. In empirical studies of demand, the concept of separation is used to correctly estimate demand function and limit the number of parameters. For this purpose, data related to price index and cost of selected commodities (citrus fruits, cucurbits, and vegetables) derived from the Central Bank over 2016 in urban households of Iran were used. The results of the separability tests support the hypothesis that consumers first allocate their income to selected commodities in three groups (citrus fruits, cucurbits, and vegetables) and then approves the income allocation action between the types of its subgroups that are grouped. Also, the results of the system estimation showed that all groups had a negative intrinsic price elasticity. In the meantime, the price elasticity of the groups of citrus fruits (orange, tangerines, and lemon), cucurbits fruits (potato, tomato, and onion) and vegetables (the leafy ones) are equal to -0.83, -0.48 and -0.91, respectively. Given the income elasticity calculated for the three commodity groups, the second commodity group (potato, tomato, and onion) is more essential than the other commodity groups, which should be considered in government policies as to agricultural production and pricing.

The second largest producer of melon and cantaloupe is assigned to the Islamic Republic of Iran during the years 2001-2017 after China,and these products can play an important role in the development of non-oil exports. The paper aims to examine the place of Iran in the export of melons and cantaloupe among 15 major exporting countries. Needed information for calculating indices was gathered from FAO and TRADEMAP sources. The 15 largest exporting countries were selected for comparison: Spain, America, Brazil, Netherlands, Mexico, Guatemala, Costa Rica, France, Honduras, Morocco, China, Italy, Iran, Australia, South Africa. The structure of the melon and cantaloupe market was investigated using indices of concentration ratio and Herfindal-Hirschman. Also, using the business mapping index and the global integration of the market, this market has been identified. In the following, by using the screening method (weighted average of the import advantage index and several other indicators), the target markets of Iranian melons and cantaloupe have been ranked.The results showed that the IRAN with the relative advantage of exporting 3.8 is ranked seventh in the world.Also, the average indices of the structure of the melon and cantaloupe market during the period of the study (2001-2017) are open-ended multilateral, with Spain having the highest share in the export of melon with 20% of the world market  and with other countries there is a lot of difference.in 2017, four countries (Spain, the Netherlands, Brazil, Guatemala) have nearly 50% of melon exports. Based on a basket of agricultural commodities, the evaluation of the trade plan during the period under review, showed that Iran was the winner in the declining markets. Based on the results of the screening method, the countries are the target markets for Iranian melons and cantaloupe, respectively In the first to thirteen priorities: United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Estonia, Armenia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, China, Kazakhstan, Hungary.