hamid amadeh

Global greenhouse gas emissions have risen from 31,553 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 1990 to 46,187 million tons in 2022. According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), since the late 19th century, the Earth’s average temperature has increased by 1.1 degrees Celsius.Every decade since 1960 has been warmer than the previous one, with the last decade being the hottest on record. The warming caused by human activities and greenhouse gas emissions has currently reached about 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Over the past two decades, global scientific and political communities have increasingly focused on the issue of global warming and its associated climate changes. The historic Paris Agreement, signed on December 12, 2015, during the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the UN Climate Change Convention, was a significant step toward combating climate change and addressing the challenges of reducing emissions and investing in a low-carbon, resilient, flexible, and sustainable economy. The agreement, signed by 195 countries, came into force on November 4, 2016. Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to prevent the global average temperature from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.Following the agreement, countries through the UN Climate Change Convention asked the IPCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas pathways. In the IPCC report, supported by 133 researchers, various greenhouse gas emission pathways to achieve the 1.5-degree goal were outlined. Achieving this goal will require significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, with a major focus on the energy sector. Four proposed scenarios, which aim to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, predict a sharp decline in the use of fossil fuels. However, the type of fuel and the speed of the transition in fuel consumption vary considerably, especially for coal, oil, and gas, through 2030. Coal faces the most severe reductions, with consumption needing to decrease by 59% to 78% by 2030 compared to 2010. Natural gas has a better outlook, with predictions ranging from a one-third increase to a one-quarter decrease in different scenarios. Oil has the most uncertain future, with the fourth scenario, based on bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), predicting an 86% increase in oil consumption compared to 2010. Given the uncertain future of oil in these scenarios, analyzing the impact of implementing each of the IPCC's proposed scenarios on OPEC member countries, whose economies are heavily reliant on oil revenues, is crucial. The innovation of this research lies in examining the effects of climate change policies on oil-producing and exporting OPEC countries, including Iran, using a time-series econometric approach, co-integration equations, and a vector error correction model.

Methods and Material:

In this research, to examine the effects of the IPCC scenarios, which are based on reducing global fossil fuel consumption, on OPEC’s oil demand and supply, a time-series econometric approach was used. Co-integration equations were employed to estimate long-term relationships, and the vector error correction model was applied for short-term estimates. Given the significance of reduced demand for OPEC countries, which are economically dependent on oil export revenues, data on the production and price of OPEC oil were used. Additionally, the long-term effects of environmental actions under the IPCC scenarios, which replace fossil fuels with renewable energy by 2030 and 2050, were incorporated into the model using renewable energy price variables. Variables used in the supply and demand functions include OPEC oil production, OPEC oil prices adjusted for the U.S. consumer price index, industrial production indices for developed and emerging countries, and renewable energy price indices. The research data were gathered monthly from 1986 to 2022. OPEC oil price and production statistics were obtained from OPEC, and the U.S. consumer price index data were sourced from the World Bank. The industrial production index (IP) for developed countries was calculated as a weighted average of IP from the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, the U.K., Italy, Canada, Spain, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Belgium, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Luxembourg, with weights based on the GDP share of each country in total GDP. For emerging countries, the IP index was similarly calculated for China, Brazil, India, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey, and Indonesia. The GDP data were obtained from the World Bank, and IP data from the International Monetary Fund. Renewable energy prices were based on the weighted average levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for renewable sources such as concentrated solar power, offshore and onshore wind power, and photovoltaic solar energy. The weights were based on each energy type's share of total renewable energy production, and the LCOE data were published by the International Renewable Energy Agency. Initially, the industrial production indices for developed and emerging countries, as well as the renewable energy price index, were seasonally adjusted.

OPEC adopts two approaches in the global oil market: a strategic approach, where OPEC acts similarly to non-OPEC producers and amplifies the effect of price shocks, and an adaptive approach, where OPEC seeks to balance non-OPEC production changes and stabilize oil price fluctuations. The estimated coefficients indicate that during the study period, OPEC countries, alongside the increase in non-OPEC production, attempted to maintain their market share, often increasing production to force high-cost producers out of the market. This finding is consistent with those of Bog, Pal, and colleagues (2016), who viewed OPEC as a dominant producer seeking to protect market share by limiting competitors like shale oil producers.The results of the model estimation indicate a direct relationship between OPEC oil supply and real oil prices, with a price elasticity of oil supply of 0.22. Additionally, a 1% increase in non-OPEC production leads to a 1.56% increase in OPEC oil production. The price elasticity of oil demand is negative at -0.05, with demand from developed countries having a more significant impact on OPEC oil demand than demand from emerging countries. Furthermore, a 1% decrease in renewable energy prices reduces OPEC oil demand by 0.26%. Therefore, in the pessimistic IPCC scenario, where oil consumption declines by 37%, OPEC’s oil supply could decrease by 40% by 2030.Based on the findings, it is recommended that OPEC regularly monitor the pace of renewable energy development up to 2030 and adjust its strategies accordingly. Although the growth of industrial production in developed countries has a more significant effect on OPEC oil demand, trends in oil imports from China and India, which accounted for about 40% of OPEC’s exports in 2019, versus declining imports from the U.S. and European OECD countries, which have dropped by 40%, should also be considered by OPEC.

As societies grow and develop, pollution has emerged as a fundamental management challenge in the contemporary world. This issue holds particular significance in developing countries where economic growth and environmental quality often clash in policy-making. Urban solid waste is a prevalent form of pollution afflicting cities, including Tehran. The pivotal question is whether the production of urban solid waste increases in tandem with citizens' incomes. This article delves into the relationship between the per capita income of Tehran residents and the volume of urban solid waste they generate within the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework. Given that household activities directly drive municipal solid waste production, the findings of this study shed light on citizens' environmental preferences. Utilizing panel data from 2007 to 2016 across 22 districts of Tehran, the study confirms that the quadratic model hypothesis of the EKC adequately analyzes this relationship based on Wald's test. Additionally, utilizing the fixed effects method, the study demonstrates the significant impact of per capita income on waste generation. Moreover, the analysis includes population density and household size as control variables, revealing a negative correlation between population density and waste production, while the impact of household size remains statistically insignificant.

The escalating population growth, urbanization expansion, and industrial development witnessed in recent decades have significantly elevated environmental concerns. A paramount issue among these concerns is the discharge of diverse pollutants, posing a pressing challenge for contemporary societies and garnering considerable attention from governmental entities, academia, and researchers. Waste, as a by-product of human endeavors, manifests in various dimensions and necessitates thorough examination. This study delves into the production of municipal solid waste (MSW) and its correlation with citizen income.
The primary focus of this research is to scrutinize the interplay between citizens' income levels and waste generation, particularly waste directly emanating from households. The underlying research hypothesis posits that as citizens' income rises, there is an initial upsurge in consumption and subsequent waste production. However, as per capita income levels advance, it is anticipated that individuals' preferences will undergo a transformation. This evolution is envisaged to manifest as a heightened environmental conscientiousness, leading to a shift towards prioritizing environmental quality and consequently diminishing waste generation.

Within the realm of environmental economics, scholarly attention has been directed towards exploring the intricate relationship between waste generation and per capita income through the lens of the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory. This hypothesis posits an inverted U-shaped association between per capita income and environmental degradation, with a specific focus on urban solid waste within the scope of the present study. Over the recent years, the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory has been employed as a theoretical framework to elucidate the link between per capita income levels and the proliferation of diverse environmental pollutants.
The term "Environmental Kuznets Curve" (EKC) was coined by (Dasgupta and Maler, 1994) owing to the resemblance of this curve to the fundamental Kuznets curve. Subsequently, (Shafik and Bandyopadhyay, 1992) posited, under the assumption of technological stability, consistent consumer preferences, and continued investment in environmental conservation, that escalating economic activities serve as a catalyst for environmental deterioration. Expounding on this notion, (Beckerman, 1992) delineated the presence of evidence showcasing environmental pollution during the early stages of economic advancement. Ultimately, Beckerman advocated for the augmentation of societal income as the paramount and most effective strategy to safeguard and ameliorate the environment.

The focal point of this study revolves around the interplay between the income levels of Tehran's residents and the volume of solid waste generated by them. Urban solid waste emanates directly from household sources or urban establishments, indicative of the significant influence citizens possess over the production of this particular form of pollution. This investigation draws upon panel data encompassing 22 districts within Tehran. Specifically, the study incorporates data from the 22 districts under the purview of Tehran Metropolitan Municipality over a temporal span stretching from the year 2006 to 2016, totaling a duration of 10 years. The principal dependent variable under scrutiny pertains to the per capita quantity of waste generated by individuals, with this data sourced from official statistics released by the Municipality of Tehran through the Information and Communication Technology Organization.

To initiate the model estimation process, the F-Limer's test was employed to ascertain the distinct impacts of individual sections. The test results unequivocally rejected the null hypothesis with complete certainty, signifying the inadequacy of assuming uniform origins across all regions. Consequently, the data conveys a nuanced perspective by embracing the notion of unique regional effects as opposed to a homogeneous data distribution. Subsequently, the Hausman test was utilized to discern the most appropriate estimation method between fixed effects and random effects.
Upon a thorough examination of the statistical values within the table and the associated probabilities, it was determined that the random effect estimator should be disregarded with a probability exceeding 95%, thereby endorsing the utilization of the fixed effects method. Subsequently, the quadratic model was estimated employing the fixed effects approach.
The estimated coefficients for the variables exhibit significance, barring the household dimension variable. Remarkably, the coefficient of the squared per capita income variable is not only negative but also statistically significant, underscoring the presence of an inverse U-shaped correlation between per capita income and urban solid waste production. This observation aligns with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, indicating that as the income of citizens in the 22 districts of Tehran rises, the initial surge in solid waste generation eventually plateaus and diminishes beyond a certain threshold. Moreover, the estimated coefficient for population density displays a negative and statistically significant relationship with urban solid waste production, elucidating that heightened population density inversely correlates with the amount of solid waste yielded by inhabitants.

In specific districts within Tehran, the initiation of efforts to diminish urban waste generation has been spurred by income escalations, while in alternate areas; a decline in waste output is projected to transpire once a particular threshold of per capita income is reached. It is imperative to emphasize that these outcomes should not be construed to imply a passive reliance on income augmentation alone to address urban waste management issues, thereby underscoring the continued significance of espousing efficient policies within this domain.

Nowadays, due to the limitation of fossil fuels, the topic of their optimal use has been given more attention than before. In the upstream literature of oil and gas economy, the word synonymous with this topic is reservoir management. In this study, selected one of the oil fields of Iranian Offshore Oil Company (IOOC). In the first step, by using field data, the cost function of the field is estimated by considering the environmental costs and secondary recycling costs, and in the next Nowadays, due to the limitation of fossil fuels, the topic of their optimal use has been given more attention than before. In the upstream literature of the oil and gas economy, the word synonymous with this topic is reservoir management. This study selected one of the oil fields of the Iranian Offshore Oil Company (IOOC). In the first step, by using field data, the cost function of the field is estimated by considering the environmental costs and secondary recycling costs, and in the next step, the discounted profit of the field during its life under three discount rate scenarios, and it is maximized by dynamic programming method. The results of the bell curve study confirmed the production during the life of the field. Also, in the scenario of the discount rate of 5%, the harvest results from the field have been more balanced, and with the increase of the discount rate to 10 and then 20%, more harvest has been achieved in the first years of production and less harvest in the final years of productionstep, the discounted profit of the field during its life under three discount rate scenarios. and it is maximized by dynamic programming method. The results of the bell curve study confirmed the production during the life of the field. Also, in the scenario of discount rate of 5%, the harvest results from the field have been more balanced, and with the increase of the discount rate to 10 and then 20%, more harvest has been achieved in the first years of production and less harvest in the final years of production.

This paper focuses on the analysis of the petrochemical products manufacturing value chain and the presentation of petrochemical products' optimal manufacturing pattern in petrochemical industries affiliates of pension funds. The case study in this research is JAM and MASJIDSOLEYMAN Petrochemical companies. Period of this research is 5 years. In this case study, the determiner faces paradoxical objectives simultaneously. The fuzzy multi-objective linear programming (FMOLP) method has been used based on the α-cut of fuzzy parameters in this research. The goal of this research is to extract the amount of products that have maximized profit and value-added and minimized risk simultaneously which face technological, market, financial, budget, legal, and national interest-related limitations. This method is often interested in the proper POSs that have finite tradeoffs between objective functions. One numerical sample has been used to show the possibility of using the said method in multi-objective optimizing issues for the production of propylene. Because of the efficiency and satisfaction of the obtained new solutions for this method, this method undoubtedly can be useful to solve the FMOLP problems. A decrease in the production of ethylene and light polyethylene and an increase in propylene and butadiene production is the most important policy recommendation of this research.

The main purpose of this study was examining the ways of making assets productive in suburban areas with the facilitation of municipalities that are responsible for city administration. So, the implications of empowerment, microcredit, tenure security and formalization of assets were studied in Farahzad neiborhood as a case study. The data were collected using a questionnaire and analyzed using SPSS and SWOT analysis to develop strategies, policies, and executive actions. The findings showed that informal settlements, low skills, and informal employment are the main obstacles of making residents’ assets productive in suburban areas. Therefore, the following solutions are suggested: 99-year endowment of land; The development of various businesses with the priority of restaurants and entertainment centers, considering that there are suitable conditions for tourism in the neighborhood; Creating sales support markets due to the existence of urban land for the development and support of professional businesses; Using the potential of charitable institutions, NGOs, and local institutions for training jobs, forming job cooperatives; Building trust and raising awareness about micro-lending processes; Renting on the condition of acquiring business equipment to remove the threat of misuse of microloans. The necessity of the role of the municipalities as facilitating institutions is that on the one hand this institution lacks enough financial ability for maximum intervention, and on the other hand, new approaches see top-down intervention of public institutions as incorrect solution and the socio-economic participation of the residents necessary for the regeneration and empowerment.

Financing is strongly believed to be the main function of any health system and insurance organizations play a critical role in the health financing system of all countries. Accordingly, in order to enable the insurance companies to take steps towards meeting the assigned goals, creation of a balance in the budget and also financial management of their resources and expenses are needed. Therefore, the current research is conducted with the purpose of analyzing the factors affecting the budget balance of health insurance organizations.

This research which is considered an experimental study has used the monthly data of premium, coinsurance, treatment, and overhead costs, and the number of services purchased by the Iran Health Insurance Organization during 2008 - 2019, and the vector error correction model (VECM) to analyze short and long-run relationships, estimate parameters and predict relationships. In addition, the approach of the present research in the selection of variables is based on the mediating role of this organization in the expenditure reimbursement, behavior management, and the purchasing of healthcare services.

The results indicated that in the long term, the insured's coinsurance and the premium paid to the Iranian Health Insurance Organization have a negative effect on the budget deficit, respectively -0.27 and -0.9. In contrast, the budget deficit is positively impacted by treatment and overhead costs with a coefficient of 2.41 and 0.67 and the number of services purchased by Iran Health Insurance Organization with a coefficient of 139576.

According to the findings of this study, the health insurance organization can use strategies such as increasing premiums and coinsurances, reducing treatment and overhead costs, and also the number of purchased services, to control and minimize its budget deficit.

Banking crises are occurring intermittently, indicating that predictive warning models are currently unsuccessful in identifying these crises before they occur. Examining the existing models shows that the reason for the failure of these models is mainly due to the identification of explanatory variables and the experimental design of the model, which were tried to be improved in this research. In order to adjust the model uncertainty problem, this research has determined the effective factors on banking crises in Iran by averaging all the models (Bayesian averaging). The results show that among the BMA, TVP-DMA and TVP-DMS, BVAR and OLS models, the TVP-DMA model was determined as the most efficient model. Based on the model, 10 fragile variables affecting the banking crisis were identified. Based on the results, all the variables have a positive effect on the banking crisis, and this shows the unfavorable banking situation, and the banking crisis index in Iran's economy is a problem with wide dimensions; Because variables related to monetary and financial policies affect this index

The characteristics of crude oil and the factors affecting the price of this energy carrier have made its price forecast always considered by researchers, oil market participants, governments, and policymakers. Because the price of crude oil is affected by many factors, ongoing studies should be done to make more accurate and reliable estimates over time. In this paper, a combination of GM (1,1) and ARIMA models and a hybrid model (GM-ARIMA) for crude oil price forecasting is proposed. The Brent crude oil price data for seasonal (2015Q1-2021Q2), monthly(2020m3-2020m12), and weekly(w12-2020: w16-2021) periods were used to examine this method. The results show that based on the evaluation criteria of mean absolute error percentage (MAPE) and square mean square error (RMSE), the evaluation criteria of MAPE and RMSE in the combined GM-ARIMA model are always lower than the GM and ARIMA models alone. Therefore, the GM-ARIMA hybrid model will be able to predict more accurately than the GM and ARIMA models. Therefore, for more accurate prediction, the GM-ARIMA hybrid model can be used instead of single models.

The characteristics of crude oil and the factors affecting the price of this energy carrier have caused its price forecast to always be considered by researchers, oil market activists, governments and policy makers. Since the price of crude oil is affected by many factors, therefore, continuous studies should be done in this way so that the estimates made over time, the results are more accurate and more reliable. In this paper, a combination of nonlinear grey model and Arima is used to forecast the price of crude oil and a combined nonlinear grey-Arima model is proposed. Brent crude oil price data for seasonal, monthly and weekly periods have been used to investigate this technique. In the quarterly forecast of data for the first quarter of 2015 to the fourth quarter of 2021, in the monthly forecast of data for January 2020 to December 2021 and in the weekly forecast of data for the second quarter of March 2020 until the first week of December 2021 has been used. The results showed that the mean absolute value of the error percentage and the square root of the mean square error in the hybrid model are always lower than the single theory-based model or the nonlinear grey single theory. Also, the hybrid model has a higher ability to explain and cover price fluctuations in different time periods and is more reliable than the single model. Therefore, a hybrid model can be used instead of single and single theory-based models for more accurate forecasting.

This study investigated the factors that leads to economic uncertainty which may influence the petrochemical companies returns in various market conditions regarding their various levels of capital. To meet this object, we used quarterly data on government’s current expenditures, general government revenues, liquidity, GDP, and exchange rate, as the political variables for the years 1384-1397. Considering the type of available time series, we exercised the ARIMA-GARCH model to create an indicator to show the uncertainty of economic policies. We used the result to estimate the quantile regression model, along with other factors affecting corporate returns, including the price of the OPEC oil basket and the real rate of returns and market exchange rate. The results of this study indicated that in the bearish market, the greatest negative effect of each economic policy uncertainty is on the companies with lesser capital. Moreover, the intensity of this effect decreases as the market tends to change from bearish to bullish, and finally the economic policy uncertainty will have the least impact on companies with bigger capital.

This study has decomposed affecting factors on energy consumption in the agriculture sector (MBOE) by using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to three structural effects, activity effects, and energy intensity effects during 2006-2014. Also, it's investigated the relationship between GDP growth and energy consumption of the agriculture sector by combining Mean Logarithmic Divisia Index with the decoupling index. The results show that energy consumption of the agriculture sector has increased during that period. Activity effect and structural effect respectively, have the most share in explaining the changes in energy consumption among the mentioned effects, and the intensity effect has a smaller role in explaining the changes in energy consumption. Additionally, the results of applying the decoupling index indicated that the agriculture sector experienced three conditions, including strong negative decoupling, weak decoupling, and expansive negative decoupling during the period of study. In the agriculture sector, after activity effect, i.e., the change of total energy consumption of each sector due to increase of production, the structural effect, i.e., utilize of the energy-intensive industries, not only has more explanatory power than efficient use of energy in the changes in energy consumption but also has the most share in the trend of changes in GDP and changes in energy consumption of aforementioned sector. But the share of effective energy consumption expressed in terms of the intensity effect is less. This conclusion suggests that the use of energy-intensive industries has a greater role in total energy consumption changes and decoupling index changes than an inefficient use of energy.

The upward trend of natural gas consumption as a result of gas supply development in recent years necessitates the need to study the resilience of the natural gas distribution system more than ever. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of natural gas price liberalization on the resumption of the gas supply system in Iran. In order to measure the fluctuation of the natural gas distribution system, in the first stage, Lyapunov's view was calculated by using the Rosen-Einstein method, based on the consumption of natural gas in the household sector during the period from 2005 to 2018. In the next step, by using the Johansen-Uuselus Coincidence Method and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the relationship between the price of natural gas and the volatility of the Iranian gas distribution system has been investigated. According to the results of the model, the price of natural gas after the law enforcement of subsidies has led to a reduction in the resilience of the gas supply system; however, before implementing the targeted subsidy policy, the natural gas price has a positive resilience on gas distribution system fluctuations. This could be resulted from the real fall in natural gas prices due to inflation and a sharp increase in the exchange rate in the years after the targeted subsidy law came into force.

Among energy carriers, electricity has been focused on more closely than the other energy carriers because of its ease of conversion, ease of use, low risk, as well as environmental considerations. In 2017, 11% of the final energy consumption belonged to electricity. Electricity is also an indicator of social welfare; however, electricity consumption has grown in recent years for such reasons as population growth, urban development, increasing living standards and welfare, realizing tariffs, climate change and industrial and commercial development. Even in some years when Iran has had low or even negative economic growth, the upward trend in electricity consumption has not stopped, and the implementation of the subsidy reform plan has not been able to stop this trend. Therefore, in the absence of structural reforms, widespread socio-economic costs will be imposed on the Iranian economy. This is because the high speed of energy consumption in Iran raises serious concerns about the country's ability to export energy in the coming decades.  Electricity reduction policies can be divided into two categories: price and non-price policies. Pricing policies in Iran have brought the price of electricity closer to the cost of production and reduced subsidies. Non-pricing policies to reduce electricity consumption can also be referred to as efficiency improvement policies. Increase of efficiency depends on the increase of the useful output of each process per unit of energy received. It is commonly thought that improving energy efficiency reduces energy consumption, but there is widespread debate in both economics and energy policymaking about the real impact of such improvements on energy efficiency.

In order to study the relationship between the increase of efficiency and the reduction of electricity subsidies, this paper creates a CGE model based on the latest Social Accounting Matrix published in 2011. The final SAM is aggregated into 11 economic sectors, namely agriculture, electricity, fossil fuels, textile production, production of chemical materials, other non-metallic mineral products, production of basic metals, production of motor vehicles and trailers, other industries, transportation and other services, two factors of production, labor and capital, two groups of urban and rural households, enterprises, government, saving-investment and the rest of the world. To calculate the effect of price increase on the efficiency, the structure of the production layers is formed in such a way that the energy-producing parts are separated from other non-energy parts. Results and

By implementing the policy of increasing electricity efficiency, electricity consumption has increased by 4.17, and there are rebound effects above 100% as well as backfire for electricity and total energy in the economy. The policy of increasing electricity prices by 10% will reduce electricity consumption by 0.02%. With the increasing electricity efficiency, the amount of energy consumption will increase by 1.20%. Taking into account the price drop for electricity due to increased efficiency, the cost of fossil fuel production will decrease and, therefore, fossil fuel consumption will increase. Consumption of energy commodities increases too. The main reason for the increase in energy consumption is that the application of the energy efficiency policy makes the level of activity rise in all sectors and, therefore, energy consumption is needed to increase production. Due to the reaction of various economic entities, including households and production sectors, energy consumption increases and may offset a part or all of the reduction in primary energy consumption. With the reduction of implicit energy prices, the energy consumer faces a situation similar to the reduction of prices, so the consumer is driven to increase energy consumption. Also, as stated in the microeconomic literature, with implicit price reduction, real energy consumption (whether in households or in the production sector) will increase and, as a result, the consumer will face a wider range of goods and services. An increase in real income will increase energy consumption. As a result, part of the reduction in the initial consumption due to increased energy efficiency is offset. Contrary to the engineering approach, a 10% increase in electrical efficiency results in a reduction of less than 10% of energy. This difference is called the rebound effect. Therefore, the increase in energy efficiency is in line with the ultimate goal of protecting the environment as well as boosting the economic growth. In contrast, the policy of increasing electricity prices reduces electricity consumption by 0.02%. Rising electricity prices will also reduce the consumption of energy-efficient commodities. A rise in fossil fuel prices will raise the electricity price. Therefore, the relative price of energy increases and is replaced by other inputs based on the effect of energy substitution. Also, price increase has caused a decrease of 0.54% in the production of the total economic activities. If the goal is to reduce energy consumption and emissions, the policy of increasing electricity prices is better than the policy of increasing efficiency.

The results show that the policy of increasing electricity prices by 10% reduces energy consumption by 4.91%, but the policy of increasing electricity efficiency by 10% does not reduce energy consumption due to rebound effects; it just increases energy consumption by 1.2%. Therefore, as realized by Khoshkalam and Mahdavi (1397), it is recommended that policy makers avoid overestimating the power savings resulting from the efficiency increase policy and not expect consumption to decrease as efficiency increases. It is important to note that the policy of efficiency compared to increasing energy prices raises the production of economic sectors, but increasing the price of production reduces it. Therefore, if the increase of the price of electricity is implemented, it is better to apply complementary policies to prevent the reduction of production.

In this paper we have tried to evaluate efficiency and productivity performance of Iranian manufacturing industries during the period 1995-2015. For this purpose we have used the data of Iranian two digits manufacturing Industries based on ISIC classification and used technique of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Malamquist Index. To compare the relative performance of manufacturing industries, we have then compared this performance of Iranian industries with an ideal Index which we have constructed based on the average performance of the three developed industrialized economies of USA, Germany and Japan. The result shows that not only productivity and efficiency of Iranian manufacturing industries are very low in almost all the branches in absolute terms, but also inefficiency are more pronounced when compared with our estimated ideal Index. Our disaggregation of efficiencies performance also shows that in almost all industrial branches allocative inefficiency is much higher than technical inefficiencies, indicating that , government macroeconomic mismanagement leads to inflationary pressures and high costs.

As early as the economic growth became a desirable goal to achieve, the environmental degradation appeared as a topical issue by environmentalists. Economic growth has exacerbated environmental problems which in turn limit sustainable economic growth and development. In addition, economic growth and technological advances have had an opposite effect on human health. Considering that Iran is a developing country and pursues sustainable economic growth, discussions on environmental degradation and public health should be of prime importance. The purpose of this study is, therefore, to investigate the inter-relationship between environmental quality, per capita income and public health in Iran during 1368-1393 using a simultaneous equation system and the 3SLS method. The results of the research indicate that the health at the level of 99% has a positive and significant effect on per capita income. If life expectancy increases by one percent, then per capita income will increase by 2/374 percent. The data used in this study could not provide sufficient evidence for the negative impact of environmental pollution on public health. The results also show that the per capita income coefficient is positive but the square of per capita income is negative. As a results, the findings confirm the existence of an inverted U-shaped relation between per capita income and the environmental pollution.

Various studies have shown that markets are not separated and that fluctuations in different markets affect each other. Therefore, awareness of connectedness is needed for investors and policymakers for making appropriate decisions. The aim of this paper is to measure the dynamics connectedness of selected stock markets in the Middle East, oil markets, gold, the dollar index, and euro-dollar and pound-dollar exchange rates during the period February 2007 to August 2019 in networks with different weekly horizons. In this paper, we intend to evaluate the pairwise impact of crude oil and the Middle East stock markets, in particular on the Tehran Stock Exchange, and to analyze this variance using different time horizons. The results show that in all time horizons the variance of forecast error in most markets is due to the shocks themselves. The Saudi Arabian Stock Exchange has the most impact on other Middle Eastern stocks. The dynamics connectedness of the oil markets is remarkable, however, as the time horizon increases, dynamic connectedness between the two markets decreases and they are mostly affected by other markets, especially the Middle East stock exchanges except for Iran. Moreover, Iran stock market is an isolated market. About the gold market, there is a significant connectedness with the pound-dollar exchange rate and gold market; however, the dynamics connectedness of this market with other markets are not significant. Therefore, this market and Iran stock exchange can be used as a tool to hedge risk for investors.

Developing gas supply in line with the policy of replacing natural gas with other fossil fuels and liberalizing natural gas prices as a price policy to optimize consumption. The need to study the resilience of the natural gas distribution system is more evident. this study aims to investigate the effects of the liberation of gas price on the gas distribution system. so, first, Lyapunov power has been computed based on the gas consumption in the residential sector between 2005 and 2017. In the next step, model was estimated using Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) method, by using the Johansen-Uuselus Coincidence Method and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the relationship between the price of natural gas and the volatility of the Iranian gas distribution system has been investigated. based on (IRF) shows that in the short run, the Lipanov view is reduced and then increased and its effect is fixed in the long run. based on the (VDCs) shows that the price of natural gas in the short run is more contributing to the explanation of the prediction error of the Lyapunov view, but in the long run its share decreases. Moreover, the momentum resulted from the real gas price to the Lyapunov power variable as the resilience index of the gas distribution system shows that Lyapunov power will decrease in consequent periods and the resilience will increase.

In this study, the impact of different food groups’ consumption, social and economic indicator on the share of food in household expenditure in the rural and urban area of Iran investigated. For this purpose, panel quantile regression considered as the best technique. The results indicated that the impact of social and economic indicators and food groups’ consumption varies in different quantiles. Moreover, between social and economic variables, income, food price index and literacy rate considered as the most effective determinants of food expenditure in rural and urban areas. Furthermore, consumption of cereal and dairy in a rural area and cereal and vegetables in an urban area do not affect the household’s food expenditure; on the other hand, increase in consumption of meat and crop oils in rural and urban area upsurge the share of food in the household expenditure. Based on the results, the implication of policies, which lead to household income improvement and stabilized the food price can improve food availability in both rural and urban areas. Besides, the introduction of the innovative and stable method of dairy and vegetable production in a rural area and encouraging the urban household to consume more vegetables results in more diverse diet and enhance the food security and simultaneously don’t increase the share of food in household expenditure.

Carbon dioxide emissions are known to be one of the major contributors to environmental pollution and climate change, so many researchers have investigated this issue in their studies. In this empirical study, using theoretical discussions and information from OPEC members in the Gulf States, it is attempted to accurately estimate the marginal abatement cost of carbon dioxide emissions and improve the effectiveness of policies by identifying the effective factors. By correctly recognizing the regional differences in terms of supply and demand for environmental services, it can be concluded that to achieve the long-term goals of reducing global emissions, achieving a win-win state between environmental considerations and economic benefits and more effective presence of these countries in world markets, the more efficient the use of such regional plans will be. The results show that Iran has the highest shadow price of $ 3.025 million per ton of carbon dioxide and Kuwait has the lowest shadow price of $ 0.011 million per ton of carbon dioxide Also, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have the same shadow price of $ 1.14 million per ton of carbon dioxide.

The substitution of the natural gas for other fossil fuels during last few years has led to a siginificant increase in its share in the energy mix. The main goal of this research is to investgate the resiliency of the Iranian gas distribution system using Lyapunov exponent. On cold days of the year, up to 85% of natural gas is consumed in the household sector. Therefore, temperature fluctuation, as a shock to the consumption of natural gas in the household sector, was considered as an indicator for measuring the resilience of the natural gas distribution system. In order to calculate the biggest Lyapunov power, the time delay and the encompassing dimension need to be calculated. To calculate the time delay, mutual information average function was used. Kao method was also used to calculate the encompassing dimension. Finally, Rosenstein method was used to calculate the biggest Lyapunov power. The results showed that the consumption of natural gas occurs in a chaotic process. Therefore, the gas distribution system is not resilent enough. Morevoer, regarding Lyapunov power before and after the subsidies reform, an improvement was observed in the resilence of the Iranian gas distribution system after the implementation of the law of subsidies reform in Iran.

The Double dividend hypothesis briefly demonstrates that by replacing different kinds of distortionary taxes with environmental ones, not only the lesser pollutants would be emitted (the first merit), but the more productivity and public welfare would be gained (the second one). Given the urgent need of reducing emissions in Iran, levying taxes on carbon, aimed at reducing carbon dioxide by 12 percent, is simulated at present article by a computable general equilibrium model which hypothesized three recycling tax incomes scenarios. In order to calibrate the model, the social accounting matrix of 1390 is used, which comprises of 26 sectors, 36 commodities and two type of households, based on the input-output tables of the Iranian Statistics Center. The results of the present research show that the goal of 12 percent reduction of the emission would be met by 51.3 Rials taxing per each kg carbon dioxide in the scenario of restoring the whole taxes to the households, 73.5 Rials in the scenario of reducing production taxes and finally 58 Rials in the scenario of reducing labor taxes. In all the three scenarios, increase of the real consumption budget of household and the equivalent welfare index is evident. In the first scenario, employment decreases and in the second and third ones, it increases, whereas the real GDP decreases and in the second and third ones, it stands approximately the same. The results of the present research bear out the weak form of the double dividend hypothesis, in the sense that the welfare effects of reducing distortionary taxes are more than those of restoring the whole distortionary ones. The strong form of the hypothesis, however, is not approved in Iranian economy. Moreover, the reduction of labor tax policy, is accompanied by the optimum welfare and viability effects.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of total productivity factors on employment in Iran's industrial sectors using Autoregressive distributed lag and error correction model over the period 1996-2016. In modeling, industries are categorized into three groups of low-technology, Medium Low Technology, and Medium High Technology industries. The results show a significant and negative impact of total factor productivity on employment in Total industries and Medium High Technology industries that means meaning that the increase in total productivity factors in short and long term reduces total employment of Medium High Technology industries. In addition, total factor productivity has a negative effect on employment in low Technology and Medium Low Technology, meaning that increasing productivity in both the short and long run reduces employment in low-tech and medium-low industries. According to the results, increasing the skill and Workforce expertise and new Machinery can lead to increased productivity in the employment of Iranian industries.

In the present study surveyed the affecting factors on changes in energy consumption in the forms of energy intensity, structural and activity effects (in terms of million barrels of crude oil equivalent) by using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach with additive method in form of chain-linked decomposition analysis, in two economic sectors including industry and transportation for the period of 2006-2014 in Iran. Also, by using the decoupling index, the analysis of the relationship between GDP growth and energy consumption in the total of the two sectors of industry and transport and energy consumption in the total of these two sections is discussed. The results show that energy consumption has increased during the study period in these two sections and these two sections experienced three states of non-decoupling, weak decoupling and negative decoupling. The structural effect of explaining changes in energy consumption and explaining the decoupling of energy consumption from GDP growth has the largest share, and this result indicates that the use of high energy industries has a greater share in changing energy consumption than other factors.

Climate change is the most important phenomenon that directly affects the environment worldwide. The effect of this global phenomenon varies across countries. Some of the consequences of climate change worth mentioning are disappearing of glaciers, the sea level rise and the declining crop yields in Iran being located in an arid and semi-arid area in the Middle East region as well as facing the water crisis hence will not be immune to climate change and its consequences. In this paper, we investigate the effect of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation on GDP growth in 27 provinces in Iran. The labor force, investment and energy consumption are the control variables. We have estimated the panel data model for the years 2000 to 2015. The results indicate a negative effect of temperature on GDP growth with or without the oil production. We have also demonstrated that the rising rainfall contributes to GDP growth.

The increasing demand of fossil fuels alongside its environmental pollution necessitates the optimal consumption of the fuels. In cold seasons, natural gas consumption increases and power plants of the country need to substitute their consumed fuel in order to supply electricity. This paper evaluated the substitution between consumable fuels in electricity production in six selected regional electricity companies during the years 1389-1386. Cost share equations of conventional fuels in electricity generation were estimated using the seemingly unrelated regression equations (SURE) estimator. Using the results of the estimation, equations of the own-and cross-price elasticities of the substitution of different fuels were calculated. According to the results of calculations, all the own price elasticities were negative and cross price elasticities were positive. The substitute elasticity between natural gas and gasoil was 1.56 and between natural gas and mazut was 1.3. Also, using the calculated elasticities, the substitution of fuels was applied with the aim of reducing CO2 emissions. The application results showed that the substitution of mazut with natural gas would reduce CO2 emissions, but the substitution of gasoil with natural gas would increase CO2 emissions.