جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « ریسک سیاسی » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

The tourism industry is one of the main factors of economic growth and improvement of social welfare in many developed and developing countries, stimulation of foreign investment, foreign exchange income, development of infrastructure, creation of job opportunities, and social interaction among tourists. Tourism promotes globalization and international cooperation between countries and increases awareness of environmental protection. The performance of tourism depends on the level of development of the industry. Countries with developed tourism, experience a much  greater economic growth compared to the countries with less developed tourism industry. Several factors affect the development of tourism industry. For example, tourism needs an advanced transportation network and other facilities to facilitate the movement of tourists from their own countries to the host countries and also within the host country. Therefore, the physical infrastructure is considered an important determining factor in the arrival of tourists. The current research examines the factors influencing the development of the tourism industry from other perspectives. The existing literature shows that tourism is vulnerable and prone to political risks related to poor  governance strategies, crime, conflicts, political instability, corruption, and terrorism. High levels of political risk make countries inaccessible to international tourists, making visiting those countries seem highly risky and expensive at the same time. In addition to the mentioned items, other factors such as inflation rate, exchange rate fluctuations and real exchange rate affect the tourism industry. In case of currency devaluation in the host country, the visiting rate will increase  as tourism products and services in the country become relatively cheap for tourists from countries with strong currencies. Another parameter in this regard is inflation category where there is a close correlation between the purchasing power of consumers, and rampant inflation rate. When the purchasing power of tourists decreases, they lose interest to travel to such destinations where life and travel expenditures are rather expensive and hardly affordable. However, when inflation decreases, more tourists visit the host country, where the cost of living and transportation is far cheaper.The research findings have shown that tourism has played a vital role in many low-income countries like Iran. Over the  recent years, the country has experienced severe fluctuations in the exchange rate and inflation rate. The accurate validation of exchange rate policies, inflation rate, and political risk is not only useful in the academic field but also for policymakers in practice to support the activity. The current research is innovative in terms of the subject and the econometric methods used. The research hypotheses are as follows: 1- There is a negative and significant relationship between political risk and tourism development. 2- There is a positive and significant relationship between the exchange rate and tourism development. 3- There is a negative and significant relationship between the inflation rate and tourism development.

This research analyzes the effects of political risk, exchange rate, and inflation rate on the development of tourism in the case of Iran in the period of 2000-2021 and uses the non-linear econometric approach (NARDL) to estimate the short-term and long-term coefficients. To perform statistical and econometric analysis, Eviews 13 software was used. The QARDL method is also used to check the robustness of the results.

Short-term and long-term evaluations of NARDL model shows that the effect of a positive exchange rate shock on tourism development is positive and significant both in the short and long term, while the effect of a negative exchange rate shock on tourism development in both the short and long term is negative and significant. In the case of political risk and inflation rate, the results are the opposite of the exchange rate, so the impact of the positive shock of political risk and inflation rate on the development of tourism is negative and significant both in the short and long term, while the effect of the negative shock of political risk and inflation rate on it is positive and significant. The results of long-term and short-term estimates are consistent and differ only in the size of influence in terms of coefficients, and they confirm the hypothesis of the present study. The biggest impact in the short term, with a reduction factor of 0.611, is related to the inflation rate. In the long term, the greatest impact with a reduction factor of 0.790 units is related to the positive shock of political risk.

The tourism economics literature has conclusively proved that tourism entering a country leads to economic development in the destination country. According to the reports of the World Tourism Organization (2018), tourism is the third largest industry in terms of global export earnings. Based on the results of this research, the following recommendations are suggested: Institutional reforms can help strengthen the economy of countries with low-quality institutions, and policymakers should consider the conditions of the tourism industry when setting country stabilization strategies. The increase in the inflation rate in recent years destroys the advantage of being cheap to travel to Iran due to the increase in the exchange rate, so policymakers should consider controlling the inflation rate.

The purpose of this research is to investigate different levels of country risk and its role in the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Iran, during the period (1997-2021). In terms of purpose, this research is of applied type and in terms of causal-analytical method, and the method of collecting information is of documentary-library type. After calculating the threshold value of each variable, we analyzed the effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth using the threshold distance of different country risks. The results indicate the non-linear effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth under different risks in the country. This research is one of the first studies in Iran that analyzed the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth based on a risk-based approach. According to the regression model described in the current research, this research provides suggestions for developing a suitable strategic plan with the aim of specifying short-term and long-term goals, and future vision, as a road map for those involved.
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This study examines the effect of political risk on the entrepreneurial activities. Political risk has a negative effect on the transparency and predictability of the macro-economic and social environment, the investment rate, the tenure of policy makers and the sustainability of public policies, which all these factors hinder the growth of creativity, entrepreneurship and long-term investment decisions. In this study, the effect of political stability indicators on the density index of business entry in 85 developed and developing countries during the period of 2012-2022 has been investigated. The results of the estimation using the GLS method and then the quantitative method (QREG) show that democratic accountability, bureaucracy, government stability, law and order, social and economic conditions, investment status, corruption control, lack of Internal and external conflicts, the absence of military presence in politics, the absence of ethnic, religious and religious tensions influence the increase of people entering the business. In addition, in the studied countries, a higher level of financial and economic development has a direct relationship with indicators of political stability and facilitates the conditions for entering into entrepreneurship. Therefore, policy makers who are looking for economic development and increasing the level of socio-economic indicators should provide ways for entrepreneurs to enter the business. Considering the importance of political stability indicators and their impact on entrepreneurial activities, one of the expected policies to improve the business situation and increase the role of productive entrepreneurs in the economy of countries can be called the improvement of these indicators.

One of the most vital concerns of economists and policymakers is finding the root of economic fluctuations and minimizing them. The political situation in Iran, the existence of economic sanctions, and uncertainty in the economy have caused severe fluctuations in the exchange rate market during the last few decades. The main goal of this research is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic uncertainty and political risk on the fluctuations of the foreign exchange market in Iran from 1991 to 2020 using the vector autoregression method with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR). To achieve this goal, the macroeconomic uncertainty index was first measured using seven economic sectors, including production, energy, price, monetary and credit variables, currency and foreign trade, and financial and stock market variables. The results of this research indicate an increasing and very strong effect of the macroeconomic uncertainty index on exchange rate fluctuations in Iran. On the other hand, political risk has had an increasing effect on exchange rate fluctuations in Iran, except during the nuclear agreement period (2014 - 2017). Moreover, other results of the research indicate the increasing and very strong effect of housing price fluctuations and gold price fluctuations on exchange rate fluctuations in Iran, while stock market fluctuations have a decreasing effect on currency market fluctuations in Iran.

The primary objective of this research is to examine the symmetrical and non-linear impact of political stability on the environmental quality in Iran from 1990 to 2020. For this purpose, the model estimation has been conducted using the Multiple Asymmetric Thresholds NARDL (MTANARDL). The results of the MATNARDL estimator show that both short-term and long-term positive shocks in the political risk index have a significant and positive impact on the ecological footprint. This effect is observed in both small-scale (quantile less than the τ30 threshold) and medium-scale (quantile between the τ30 and τ70 thresholds) analyses. However, when it comes to large-scale shocks (quantile less than the τ70 threshold), the effect on the ecological footprint is negative. In addition, the negative shocks of the political risk index in all three scales - small, medium, and large - do not have a significant effect on the ecological footprint in the short and long term. Based on this, it can be said that the effect of political risk on the ecological footprint in Iran is asymmetric, and only with a significant (large) increase in political stability, we can see a reduction in the ecological footprint in the country.

Export diversification is a preventive measure against trade shocks, which is defined as an increase in the number of export goods and a decrease in a country's dependence on a single source for exports, and it can help macroeconomic stability. This index is an essential aspect of the development process not only for rentier governments but also for all countries, which can affect income inequality in various ways. Therefore, the study tries to investigate the effect of export diversity on income inequality and the impacts of political risk on the interaction between these two variables, in 81 countries with high and low political risk using the panel quantile model with fixed effects during the years 2000-2019. The results show that export diversity increases income inequality in both groups of countries under investigation. However, export diversification effects on income inequality is greater in countries with high political risk. Therefore, in these countries, the more skilled labor has been used to compensate for the diversification costs and has caused a high wage gap. Industrialization and increasing the degree of trade openness reduce income inequality. Foreign direct investment increases income inequality in both categories of countries. GDP per capita has a non-linear inverse U-shaped effect on income inequality, that Kuznets' hypothesis is confirmed in both categories of countries.

The relationship between economic, financial, political risks and per capita carbon emission (CO2) is considered as one of the major global challenges. The effect of these three factors on carbon emissions is very important. Therefore, the current research seeks to investigate the role of economic, financial, and political risk in reducing per capita carbon emissions (CO2) by using the very new and fresh approach of quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) modeling in the annual period from 1990 to 2018. The statistical relationship between the variables mentioned in Eviews12 and Matlab2022 software platform has been investigated for Iran. The results show that the economic risk variable in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) had a positive effect on carbon emissions per capita in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95), and this positive relationship was relatively stronger in the quantiles (0.3 to 0.95), of the economic risk variable. the financial risk variable in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) had a positive effect on carbon emissions per capita in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95), and this positive relationship was relatively weak in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) of the financial risk variable, as well as Politics risk has a positive effect on carbon emissions per capita in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) and this positive relationship is relatively weak in all quantiles (0.5 to 0.95) of the Politics risk variable. Thus, the need to pay attention to Iran's economic, financial, and political stability to improve the environment's quality and reduce carbon emission (CO2) is very important.

Iran's economy has faced various economic, financial and political risks in recent decades. Therefore, several studies have examined the effect of these risks on macroeconomic variables, but no comprehensive study has been done on the effect of instabilities on economic growth. Therefore, this study tries to investigate the effect of financial, economic and political risks on Iran's economic growth. For this purpose, the financial, political and economic risk index in the framework of the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) for the period 1398-1388 has been used. The results of long-term estimation of variables have shown that the two indicators of economic risk and financial risk have had a negative and significant effect on economic growth in Iran. Between these two indicators, the negative impact of financial risk index was more than economic risk. Based on this, it is suggested that appropriate policies and measures be taken to reduce financial and economic risks in the Iranian economy. Properly adopting fiscal and monetary policies and not making sudden decisions without a comprehensive study of the economy can make a significant contribution to reducing financial and economic risks.

Corruption and political risk are important factors affecting the economies that can affect various aspects of people's lives. On the other hand, one of the important economic indicators that shows the intensity of energy consumption, and in other words, the amount of energy consumption in each country, is the energy intensity. Energy intensity is a crucial indicator by which we can understand the trend of changing energy efficiency in different years. Given the importance of this issue, the present study examines the effect of corruption and political risk along with other factors on the energy intensity of selected countries in the Mena region, including Iran, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE using by a panel data model for 2003 to 2019. The results show that corruption, political risk, and factors such as good governance, foreign investment, and human development are important. Therefore, improving education and awareness by reducing corruption and political risk can lead to better implementation of energy efficiency programs.

Development of the entrepreneurship space by helping to nurture entrepreneurs and increase the attitudes, abilities and aspirstions for entrepreneurship has a positive effect on the economic and social growth of societies. Because entrepreneurship is a source of innovation, employment, and economic growth and development. Therefore, determine the factors affecting of the entrepreneurship space is important in the economics and management disciplines. In this regard, the present study attempted to investigate the interactive impact of risk institution including political, economic and financial risks and abundance of natural resources on entrepreneurship space in resource-rich selected countries during the period 2014-2018. In order to achieve this goal, the research model was estimated using panel data approach and generalized moment method in two groups of countries. The results showed that the individual impact of political, economic and financial risks and the abundance of natural resources on the entrepreneurship space in the selected countries were negative and significant. Also, the interactive impact of political, economic and financial risks with the abundance of natural resources on the entrepreneurship space in the selected countries is negative and significant. However, the estimated coefficient of their interactive impact is larger than the estimated coefficient of their individual impact. Also, the impact of control variables gender gap and unemployment rate on the entrepreneurship space is negative and significant, and the impact of intellectual property rights on the entrepreneurship space is positive and significant.

This article examines the determinants of international capital flows with an emphasis on financial globalization in emerging countries during 1985-2013. In addition, by entering the interactive variable of institutions' quality with financial globalization, the simultaneous effect of institutions' quality and financial globalization on international capital flows has been evaluated. For this purpose, two-stage generalized moment estimator has been used. The results show that financial globalization increases capital flows in countries that have high-quality institutions and political stability. But in countries with poor quality institutions and political instability, it does not increase capital flows or even decreases them. Also, based on the results, there is a threshold level for the quality of institutions, before reaching it, financial globalization causes a decrease in capital flows, and when the quality of institutions reaches this threshold level, financial globalization causes an increase in capital flows. In addition, among the selected emerging countries, only Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Chile, Malaysia, Poland, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Mexico, Oman, Estonia and Latvia have been able to reach this threshold level. Considering that the quality of institutions in most emerging countries is below the threshold, these countries should improve the quality of institutions and establish political stability in their country before financial globalization.

This study examines the effect of political risk on the entrepreneurial activities. Political risk has a negative effect on the transparency and predictability of the macro-economic and social environment, the investment rate, the tenure of policy makers and the sustainability of public policies, which all these factors hinder the growth of creativity, entrepreneurship and long-term investment decisions. In this study, the effect of political stability indicators on the density index of business entry in 85 developed and developing countries during the period of 2012-2022 has been investigated. The results of the estimation using the GLS method and then the quantitative method (QREG) show that democratic accountability, bureaucracy, government stability, law and order, social and economic conditions, investment status, corruption control, lack of Internal and external conflicts, the absence of military presence in politics, the absence of ethnic, religious and religious tensions influence the increase of people entering the business. In addition, in the studied countries, a higher level of financial and economic development has a direct relationship with indicators of political stability and facilitates the conditions for entering into entrepreneurship. Therefore, policy makers who are looking for economic development and increasing the level of socio-economic indicators should provide ways for entrepreneurs to enter the business. Considering the importance of political stability indicators and their impact on entrepreneurial activities, one of the expected policies to improve the business situation and increase the role of productive entrepreneurs in the economy of countries can be called the improvement of these indicators.

One of the important factors that investors consider in their decision is the return and risk of the stock market. During the last three decades, Iran has faced many risks at the macro-level of society. Increasing economic, financial and political risk affects the level of activities and efficiency of markets. A review of studies of the influence of risk on return and risk Tehran Stock Exchange shows that a comprehensive study to investigate the effect of political, economic, and financial risk with capital markets has not been done. Therefore, this study seeks to answer the question of whether political, economic, and financial risks affect stock risk and return? Which risk has the greatest impact on stock market risk and return? This study tries to examine the effect of political, economic, and financial risks on stock risk and return.

 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:

Economic risk is a tool for assessing a country's economic strengths and weaknesses. Financial risk is a tool to assess a country's ability to pay its costs. Financial risk is a measure of a country's ability to formally finance, trade, and trade liabilities. Political risk is often defined as the undesirable risk of political events.Increasing economic and financial risk affects the stock market through different channels:  1. Impact on investors' expectations and consequently change in the current value of investment projects, change in profit flow or change in the value of assets of firms admitted to the stock market 2. Engaging the non-productive sectors and thus changing liquidity flows 3. Changes in international financial flows affect the stock market.Political risk can also affect the stock market through the following channels:  1. Changing economic outlook and consequently changing the trust and behavior of consumers and investors that change the demand and performance of markets 2. Political and social protests as a result of any change of government   3. Changing political parties and consequently changing policymakers' positions on legislation for working-class or upper-class voters   4. Supporting some industries or geographical areas   5. Change in foreign direct investment   6. Affecting the quality and structure of institutions causes instability in prices and market performance.Many studies have been done in this field. For example, Heidari et al. (2015) studied macroeconomic variables affecting the volatility of stock returns on the Tehran Stock Exchange in different regimes using a nonlinear approach to change the Markov ARMA GARCH multivariate regime. Their results show that the growth rate of GDP has a significant negative effect on the volatility of stock returns. Inflation, money growth rate and exchange rate volatility have a positive and significant effect on different regimes, but oil price volatility has different effects on stock price volatility.Zolfaghari and Sahabi (2016) investigated the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on stock return risk based on Markov regime transfers. The results showed that the industry efficiency index follows regime transitions and responds asymmetrically to external shocks. Also, the risk of return on industry indices are significantly affected by exchange rate fluctuations in the short and long term.The difference between this study and previous studies is that, firstly, none of these studies have examined three types of risks (economic, financial, and political) on the Tehran Stock Exchange simultaneously. Second, most studies have considered the relationship between economic and financial variables and the stock market, and few studies have been conducted on financial and economic risks on the stock market.

In this research, financial, political, and economic risk indicators in the framework of structural VAR for the period 2008-2019 have been used seasonally. For stock market risk in the form of conditional variance GARCH model is used. The advantage of the SVAR model, unlike the VAR model, is that it has an economic logic based on economic theories.

CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS:

The results of the Impulse response functions show that as the economic risk decreases, the stock return risk decreases. But the political and financial risk index has little effect on stock return risk. In other words, stock market risk is more affected by economic variables and political and financial variables have not been able to have much effect on market risk. Also, reducing financial risk has increased stock returns, but the impact of economic risk is first negative and then positive. The effect of political risk on stock market returns is volatile and negligible. The effect of stock market risk on market returns is positive. The results of analysis of variance also show that the economic risk index had the most explanations in stock market return and risk.In general, the Tehran Stock Exchange market is more affected by economic variables and financial and political variables have little effect on this market. Therefore, macroeconomic policy-making seems necessary to reduce economic risk.

This research examines the effect of liquidity and political risks on the risk of falling stock prices of banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2009-2010. To measure the risk of falling stock prices of the company, the negative coefficient of daily return was applied, and to measure political risk apply the International Risk Guidance Index (ICRG) and liquidity risk is measuring by, the net debt ratio of the central bank to total assets. The type of this research is categorize as the applied researches and the method is correlation and hypothesis testing. The research was conducted in the framework of inductive reasoning and panel analysis and multivariate regression model in Eviews software environment has been used to analyze the hypotheses. The findings of the present study showed that liquidity and political risks have a positive and significant effect on the risk of falling stock prices of banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange.

Financial stress and political risk as effective factors on the behavior of economic agents lead to uncertainty and changes in expectations and they have important role for analyzing the country's economic growth. According to the importance of this issue, in present study after construction of the financial stress and political risk index in Iran, the effects of these two variables on the country's economic growth (per capita GDP growth during the period 1396 - 1388 have been investigated using seasonal data with ARDL Bounding Test. Also we will estimate the effect of financial stress and political risk on the other economic performance including gross fixed capital formation and final consumption expenditure growth in two separate models.The results of models showed that the increase in the financial stress will has a negative impact on the economic growth, gross fixed capital formation and final consumption expenditure growth,and an increase in the political risk index which means reducing in the political risk in country, will has a positive impact on these variables. In other words, increasing financial stress in the country during the period 2009 - 2018 will lead to a decrease in per capita GDP growth, a decrease in the gross fixed capital formation and a decrease in the final consumption expenditure growth and decreasing in the political risk leads to improvement in the economic performance.

Capital flight is a growing problem in the global economy that has negative effects on the economic growth and development of developing and has also deepened the development gap between countries. Different factors affect this phenomenon but risk and uncertainty are among the most important institutional components of each country that affect the return on investment and can lead to capital flight. The present study aims to investigate on the effects of economic, political and financial risks on capital flight using panel data during the period 2000-2019 and in 45 selected developing countries.  The results of using the panel data error correction method through fully corrected least squares estimators (FMOLS) show the significant and positive effect of all three types of risk factors on capital flight. In addition, official and foreign currency exchange rate variables have positive effects, and economic growth rate, real interest rate and corruption control index have negative effects on capital flight. This study shows that under strict sanctions and the consequent high political and economic risk, the phenomenon of capital flight can not be countered in Iran. To prevent capital flight, Iran needs to reduce its international tensions, especially with large and influential countries in the global economy.

Risk aversion, the main reason is the demand for life insurance. Because, life insurance transferring the risk of people to insurance companies, damage caused by its risk more tolerable and more manageable. So, is expected in countries with higher risks higher, life insurance penetration is higher. But, empirical evidence shows that interest on life insurance in countries with high and medium risk is minimal. While in countries with very low risk, embracing the life insurance is very impressive. Therefore, the present study tried the effect of country risk (political, economic and financial) on life insurance penetration in two groups of selected countries with high and medium risk and selected countries very low risk during the period 2002-2015 analyzed. The research model using panel data and the generalized method of moments estimated. The results showed that the effect of political risk, economic risk and financial risk on the life insurance penetration in both groups from the selected countries is negative and meaningful. The effect of Control variables including per capita income, education of level and life expectancy on life insurance penetration in both groups of selected countries has a positive and meaningful. The effect of misery index on life insurance penetration in both groups of selected countries has a negative and meaningful. But, the effect of dependency ratio on life insurance penetration in selected countries with very low risk has a positive and meaningful and on life insurance penetration of selected countries with high and medium risk has a negative and meaningful.

Political and economic policymakers believe that the development of good governance plays a key role in the political and economic development of countries. Therefore, it is important to identify the effective factors on the efficiency of good governance in order to adopt appropriate policies for promoting the political and economic system, because through the promotion of good governance, economic growth can be achieved. According to the views of institutionalist economists, one of the factors influencing institutional development is the independence of the central bank. Central Bank autonomy, through the creation of institutional structures and institutions, changes the other variables, such as state financial discipline, increased transparency and accountability, and these mechanisms help to improve good governance. In this study, the relationship between central bank independence and good governance indicators using GMM method and correlation coefficient during the period of 2002 to 2017 were investigated. In this research, the International Risk Management Index (ICRG) has been used as a good governance indicator, which includes ranking 22 variables in three sub-categories of different political risks, financial risk and economic risk, and the Mathew Index 2006) has been used as an indicator of the independence of the central bank. The Central Bank's Independence Index has been analyzed in three areas of monetary policy independence, political independence and financial independence. The findings of the research showed that the independence of the central bank has a significant effect on good governance, so that the increase in the independence of monetary policy, political independence and financial independence leads to a decrease in political, financial and economic risk.

Providing jobs for the recruited workforce is one of the social and legal demands of the people of every country. So far, the political effects of unemployment and employment have been less popular. Creating employment can increase legitimacy and acceptance of governments and enhance political stability. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of unemployment on political stability during the period 1985-2015 in Iran. Vector regression (VAR), Johansson-Juselius, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and variance analysis function were used for this purpose. The results show that in the long run, two variables of unemployment rate and Gini coefficient have a negative and significant relationship with political stability. In addition, the increase in economic growth has led to a 10% improvement in the political stability index. The vector error correction model shows that the long-term pattern of political stability in each period corrects 11.9 percent of the imbalance and approaches its long-term trend. Regarding the results of the analysis of variance, the effect of the unemployment rate on political stability variance increases from 15% in the short term to 22% in the long run. According to the results of the study, it seems that in order to establish political stability in the country, the unemployment rate should be restrained in the first place and the Gini coefficient should be reduced and the economic boom in the country should be created by strengthening domestic production and following the pattern of resistance economy.

Oil price wild fluctuations impact the economies of developing countries as well as those of developed ones. Focusing on OPEC’s political risks as a proxy of precautionary demand, this study aims to disentangle oil price factors using an SVAR approach for 1994Q1 to 2016Q4. We disentangled oil price shocks into political risks, supplies, global demand for industrial goods and other oil price shocks. Our results highlight that shocks originated from different sources affect oil prices differently in terms of both their lifetime and directions. Besides, it is revealed that the structure of oil market has changed due to the 2008 financial crisis, increased oil price fluctuations, changes in OPEC’s behaviour and accordingly its market power, and the advent of new shale oil technologies, thus affecting oil price sensitivities. Therefore, we found out that OPEC’s political risks affected oil markets way more significantly in 2008-2016.