جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « نرخ بهره » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

This research examines the interest rate risk management, one of the most important risks in banks listed on to the Tehran Stock Exchange and the impacts that may have on the persistence and valuation of net interest income; Because most of the profitability of banks comes from this income. In the meantime, by presenting new criteria instead of the gap criterion (GAP), an effort was made to gain a better understanding of this banking practice in addition to helping banks manage this risk more effectively. The time frame of this research is 2003 - 2021 and the research method is correlation base. To test the hypotheses, unbalanced panel data and GMM and OLS regression have been used. The results of the research show the existence of a negative and insignificant relationship between the impact of interest rate risk management and the persistence of net interest income, and with the valuation of this income, an insignificant but positive relationship is seen. The obtained results indicate the existence of an obstacle called the mandatory determination of the interest rate, which prevents the effective management of this risk by the banks and prevents them from achieving stability in net interest income and, consequently, stability in profit and it deprives them of the increase in the valuation of their shares.

Production growth is the most important goal in all world economies. The main goal of all macroeconomic policies in different countries is to maintain and increase production as much as possible in the first step. Different policies are implemented in different countries. Among these policies, a main category is monetary policies. The purpose of this article is to estimate the effects of monetary policy (within the framework of liquidity regulation and interest rate control), government control (in the monetary sector) and sanctions on Iran's GDP. In this study, data from the years 1357 to 1399 were used. Monetary policy, government control and sanctions were considered as independent variables and production as a dependent variable. The method of data analysis is econometrics, autoregressive with distributed lags (ARDL). EViews software was used to estimate the model. The findings of the research show that the embargo had a negative effect on the GDP. The monetary policy of increasing the applied liquidity has had a positive effect on production, and the monetary policy within the framework of interest rate or bank interest has not had a significant effect on production. Also, government control policy has had a positive effect on production.

Resolving problems resulting from stagflation conditions accompanied with low economic growth and slow employment growth needs some policies that one of them can be unconventional monetary policy. Thus, this paper proposes to evaluate the effects of unconventional monetary policy shocks using VAR with a new method called sign restrictions. To this aim, it were estimated the effects of three variables ordered as real interest rate, inflation and gross domestic product by imposing positive and negative restrictions on these variables for the period 1961-2021. In this paper, the results of model estimation and impulse response functions is done by identifying and estimating parameters on the basis of imposing negative sign on interest rate according to unconventional monetary policy shocks. Results indicate that decreasing in interest rate causes increasing in GDP. Unconventional monetary policy can raise liquidity in stock market. It also support people by low interest rate loans for production with less cost and less sale price in Iran. Therefore, unconventional monetary policy can be a useful policy for resolving stagflation occurred current years in Iran.Extended Abstract:IntroductionThe global financial crisis(GFC) marked the transition from what many had labelled the period of “Great Moderation” to that of the “Great Recession”. The stress experienced by the financial sector starting in the summer of 2007 put an end to several years of robust growth for the world economy accompanied by moderate inflation rates across most advanced market economies. Across a number of countries, financial intermediation halted, with the peak of the stress manifesting in the final quarter of 2008. Unemployment increased and inflation dropped below central banks’ target levels as economic activity receded sharply. The recovery from the deep recession was also slow in many jurisdictions, with tepid economic growth, sluggish employment growth and subdued inflation. The challenges posed to monetary policy during this period were severe and pushed central banks to resort to actions departing from their established policy frameworks.The set of policy interventions introduced during this period has been labelled as unconventional monetary policy in order to distinguish it from the conventional pre-GFC policy measures. Some unconventional monetary policies were designed to affect term spreads such as long-term risk-free rates, while others were directed at influencing liquidity and credit spreads such as interest rates on various non-risk-free instruments. One of the most important tools in unconventional monetary policy is negative interest rate policy (NIRP). The adoption of negative policy interest rates in the aftermath of the GFC was new. Identification of shocks is one of the most important issues in econometrics for interpreting their impact on themselves and also other variables. Therefore, in case of unconventional monetary policy, VAR model is applied for identifying shocks. In the research, it was identified different shocks using sign-restriction approach in Iran for the period 1961-2021.

Pricing The banking system plays an important role in the structure of an economy, and the challenges of this sector can affect other sectors. One of the most important challenges of the banking system is the occurrence of a banking crisis. The International Monetary Fund defines a banking crisis as a situation in which bank runs and bank failures spread and banks are unable to pay their debts, or a situation in which the government intervenes in the banking system on a large scale. In the conditions of banking crisis, bank bankruptcies are widespread and banks are unable to pay their debts. The occurrence of this type of crisis has various causes, the main reasons of which are the high volume of non-current claims and the freezing of bank assets as a result of corporate governance, which reduces the quality of bank assets to pay the bank's obligations, thus creating an imbalance in the banks' balance sheets. One of the features of a banking crisis is systemic risk. An increase in the systemic risk in the banking system coincides with the occurrence of a banking crisis.Systemic risk can be defined as a risk that affects the financial sector and creates an endogenous cycle that exacerbates the effect of the initial shock and causes more damage to the financial sector. With the increase of systemic risk, the probability of crisis and financial and monetary instability increases and negatively affects the real sector of the economy. In normal times, when there is no crisis, banks help the rapid development of the economy and increase the standards of living, but, when a crisis occurs, the problems in the banking sector and the subsequent failures cause serious negative consequences not only in the banking sector but also in companies directly.  It also affects investors; the occurrence of banking crises during the last few decades has always caused problems for the countries engaged in the crisis. Among these problems, one may mention the financial costs of the crisis, production losses, increase in public debts, and increase in uncollectible loans. The banking industry in Iran is one of the important financial intermediaries that can provide the basis for the growth and prosperity of the economy by properly organizing resources and expenses. More than 80% of the financing in Iran is done through banks. Therefore, the health of this sector can significantly contribute to the improvement of economic conditions. The conditions of the Iranian economy and especially the banking system in recent years indicate the signs of a banking crisis in the Iranian economy; the money market pressure index, as one of the most important indicators for measuring the banking crisis, has faced more fluctuations since the end of the 80s. Considering the high share of the banking system in the financing of economic activities in Iran and the lack of studies in the field of banking crisis and its effects on macroeconomic variables, the present research investigates the effects of systemic risk, as a representative variable of banking crisis, on the selected macroeconomic variables.

In order to analyze the effects of the banking crisis on macroeconomic variables, the stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model has been used in the form of two limit scenarios referring to a no-crisis situation and the presence of a banking crisis at the highest level using the data of Iran's economy during the years 1982-2020. In this study, a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model for a small open economy in terms of oil exports has been developed with an emphasis on Iran's economy in the framework of the new Keynesian school, in which the effect of monetary impulse on macroeconomic variables in the framework of the banking crisis is investigated. As a key feature of the model, employment and production decisions by firms and labor supply and consumption decisions by households are made before goods are produced and exchanged and before market-clearing prices are realized. In the sector of companies producing intermediate inputs, all the company's resources are assumed to be provided by facilities, and the presence of crisis increases the cost of receiving facilities. It is also assumed that the existence of the crisis will limit the lending resources of commercial banks, which will increase the price of the received loans due to the lack of resources.

The results show that, due to monetary stimuli, variables such as production and inflation show a positive reaction to the stimuli, but, over time, the effects disappear. As a result of inflation, the real wage has decreased, and the level of real consumption has also decreased due to the decrease in the purchasing power of the members of the society. Also, due to the inflation and the increase of investment cost, the amount of investment has also decreased. Therefore, the results are compatible with consumption and investment theories. Another important result regarding the systemic risk constraint in modeling is that the banking crisis has reduced the impact of monetary impulses on macroeconomic variables and reduced the size and extent of the impact.

Conclusions and policy implications: 

According to the results of the study, the existence of a banking crisis causes friction in the structure of the economy and the performance of the banking network, which affects various impulses and policies. Therefore, it is suggested that the central bank or the government should consider the state of the banking system from the perspective of its health in determining the rule and before implementing economic decisions.

Due to the special and sensitive role of banks in the country's economic system, the occurrence of any disruption or inefficiency in the banking system and the reduction of their performance, directly affects the financial activities of society. Accordingly, in the present study, the effect of interest rates on the banking profitability of Iran and the United States during the period 1990 to 2019 has been investigated by regression method and GMM time series. The results showed that interest rates had significant effects on bank profitability in the Islamic sector and the conventional sector, with the difference that this effect was positive in the Islamic sector and negative in the conventional sector. The reason for the different effect can be the difference in the nature of interest rates in the Islamic and conventional sectors, because in conventional banking; Interest rates are based on usury, which due to the separation of the banking sector from the real sector of the economy, can be detrimental to the profitability of the banking sector in the long run, but in the Islamic sector, interest rates are based on risk sharing and banking performance to the real sector. It Depends. Therefore, it is recommended that countries with usury-based banking systems put on the agenda the reforms needed to Islamize the banking system.

This paper has addressed two issues in Iran's economy. First, considering that the market interest rate is hidden in Iran, the first goal of this paper is to provide a calculate of the interest rate in financial markets of Iran. To derive a calculable alternative for this rate, the relationship between the spot and future prices of the gold coin certificate of deposit was used, and the monthly rates was extracted during 2009:04-2018-04. The second issue is the relationship between interest rate and inflation. Considering different views in the literature and, assuming that these views are mainly derived from the empirical studies on economies with different conditions and that this relationship may have a non-linear form, this article provides a model of MS-VAR to investigate the non-linear causal relationship between interest rate and inflation. The findings show that this relationship during the studied era is classified in two regimes. In the zero regime, when both variables are at high and fluctuating levels, there is a two-way causality between them, which confirms the Fisher’s effect. In regime one, where both variables are at relatively low levels with little fluctuation, there has been a positive one-way causality from interest rate to inflation.

According to Fisher's theory, an increase in expected inflation results in a unit increase in nominal interest rates, and the real interest rate, which plays a key role in shaping investment and savings behavior, remains constant, and this factor, although inflation Leads to the neutralization of monetary policy;On the other hand, based on the theory of quantity of money and the direct relationship between the velocity of money and the general level of prices, as well as the direct effect of the velocity of money on interest rates, raising interest rates is expected to increase inflation.This effect of interest rates on the inflation index (according to some economists) is not only related to inflation and affects other macroeconomic variables, but the important issue is the type, manner and amount of this effect in the short term and It is a long-term study in the present study using VAR and VECM methods and in the period of 1360 to 1399.The results of the study show the confirmation of Fisher's theory in the Iranian economy both in the short and long term, and suggest that there is a positive and significant relationship between the interest rate variable and the inflation index in the Iranian economy.In addition, variable interest rate fluctuations overshadow other macroeconomic indicators, as this relationship is inverse for the economic growth index and physical investment and direct for the inflation rate index.

The reaction function of the monetary policy maker can provide insight into the factors influencing monetary policy decisions. Empirical estimates indicate the existence of differences among countries, whether monetary policy only reacts to expected inflation or takes into account expected production developments. This study investigates the reaction function of the Iranin central bank, focusing on the variation in nominal interest rate as the main instrument for monetary policy. For this purpose, we analyzed  the reaction function of the monetary policy authority for the annual time series period from 2002 to 2019 using nonlinear Taylor rule.Evaluating the behavior of monetary policy makers in response to changes in situational variables; Oil price changes, official exchange rate changes, inflation gap and production gap using smooth transition regression (STR) model have shown that, firstly: the reaction function of the monetary policymaker in Iran is non-linear and secondly; It can be seen that by entering the variables of official exchange rate changes and oil price changes into the model, with the increase of the production gap coefficient compared to the inflation coefficient, the inflation targeting scenario changes towards the targeting of production stabilization, and thirdly; The variable influence channel of oil price changes on the reaction function of the monetary policymaker is the official exchange rate gap.

Considering the upward trend of the inflation rate and the relative stabilization of the nominal interest rate in Iran, this question becomes important: how have the stock returns of different industries reacted to these two macroeconomic variables? In this article, the effect of inflation and interest rate on stock returns of different industries in Iran is investigated empirically according to monthly data of the period April 2010- March 2022 using Panel-ARDL model. First, to make the comparison between stock indices of different industries possible, these indices were homogenized based on a base month and then the model was estimated. Empirical results show that inflation in the short and long term has a positive and significant effect on the nominal returns of stocks of various industries for the period, but inflation has a negative and significant effect on the real returns in the long term. The nominal interest rate in the short and long term causes a decrease in the nominal and real returns of stocks of various industries. In addition, the variables of exchange rate, global oil price, and liquidity were also considered as control variables. These results show that stocks have not been able to protect against inflation in the long term, and monetary authorities should pay attention to its effects on the stock market when managing interest rates.

In developing countries, the shocks that enter the economy due to capital market fluctuations have more depth and durability. Because of the two-way connection between the stock market and the real sector of the economy and public attention to this market, examining the stock market shocks is of great importance. Therefore, the present study investigated the extreme fluctuations of the stock market index, which suspected the existence of bubbles. Timing of these bubbles in the market is one of the goals of this study, which was carried out by using the right-tailed unit root tests based on the augmented Dickey-Fuller test. A stock price bubble may be affected by monetary policy. This issue is influenced by the size of the bubble and the type and strength of the applied monetary policy. The impact of monetary policy fluctuations and especially interest rates on stock price bubbles is theoretically uncertain and should be determined empirically. Therefore, another goal of this study is to examine the effects of monetary policy shocks on the formation and timing of the stock market bubble.

The method of Phillips et al.  (2015) has been used to identify and time the stock market bubble. Galli and Gambeti model and TVP-SVAR method were also used to investigate the effect of monetary policy on the stock market bubble.

BSADF (Backward Supreme Augmented Dicky-Fuller) test has been used to determine the dates when the stock market had a bubble. According to this test, in three short periods, from July to September 2005, from April to May 2011, and from October to November 2018, the stock market behaved like a bubble. Regarding the impact of the interest rate shock on the stock market bubble, it can be said that the monetary expansion shock (decrease in the real interest rate) causes the bubble part of the stock price to become larger. In all periods, the response of the bubble part was positive, but over time, has increased, and since the beginning of the 2010s, its response to the shock of interest rate reduction has completely changed. The liquidity shock, also strengthens the size of the bubble. The amount of this influence has also increased greatly over time and has reached its peak in 2017 (the year of the formation of the price bubble in the stock market based on the BSADF test). Therefore, it can be claimed that the increase in the bubble part of the stock price was caused by a positive shock or an increase in liquidity. Regarding the effect of the credit shock on the stock market bubble, it can be said that credits has affected the fundamental part of the stock price, but it does not have much effect on the bubble part of the stock price. In fact, the increase in credits has caused the liquidity restrictions of economic enterprises to be removed and has an effect on their production and sales and finally on their profitability. Therefore, it is expected that with an increase in credits (positive credit shock), most of the fundamental part (current and future profitability) of companies will be affected.

During the last decade, the public attention to the stock market in Iran increased significantly. This issue caused the entry of new funds into this market, which was seen in the bubble-like behavior of the stock price index. In the conventional economic theory, the positive impact of expansionary monetary policies on the bubble is expected, but there are other theories that make the long-term impact of the monetary policy shock on the size of the bubble uncertain and dependent on factors such as the size of the bubble, the stability of the monetary policy, and the type of monetary tool. In order to solve this theoretical ambiguity, the effect of one of these cases, i.e., changing the monetary policy tool, on the stock price bubble was investigated. Before that, the existence of a bubble in the stock market had been checked. Regarding the impact of monetary shocks on the stock price bubble, according to the type of monetary policy instrument, the reaction of the stock price bubble has been different. Interest rate policy and liquidity have had a positive effect on the bubble, but credit policy has not had such an effect. In most of the developed economies, the interest rate change is the most powerful monetary policy tool, as a small change in it can have a large impact on the real sector of these economies. But in our country, according to the empirical findings of this article, the effect of liquidity on the stock market bubbles has been greater than the effect of changing the interest rates on it. This result is a proof of the dominance of liquidity over monetary policies in Iran.

Real Money Balance indicates the impact of the changes in real money stock on real variables of the economy. This paper estimates the real money balance effects on private consumption and aggregate demand by using a structural estimation approach. The data that we use is Iran’s annual data and runs from 1990 through 2019. The variables are real private consumption expenditures, M2 money stock, CPI, GDP, population, central bank’s one-year interest rate, the arithmetic mean of growth rates of the price of durable commodities, the exchange rate, the price of gold, and the price of one square meter of land. The estimation shows that the parameter that indicates the importance of the real money balance effect on private consumption is significantly different from zero (0.952 and 0.814 from two different normalization estimations). In addition, the amount of real money balance effect on aggregate demand equals 1.691 which is significantly different from zero. These results indicate the importance of real money balance effects on private consumption and aggregate demand in Iran’s economy. This means that real money influences all macroeconomic variables and has an important role in monetary transaction mechanisms. This result indicates the importance of monetary policy and shows why we cannot ignore money’s role in the monetary transaction mechanism. It also illustrates the negative impacts of price rise in real variables on economics by decreasing real money balance.

This study investigates whether the increase in imports in oil countries (due to oil revenues) can mitigate the inflationary effect of liquidity growth or not. In this regard, a panel ARDL model is used to investigate the issue among 14 oil-exporting countries between 1970 and 2020, which is estimated by the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method. According to the results of estimations, the effect of liquidity growth on inflation is positive and significant in the oil countries (both in the short and in the long run). The results show that increases in the ratio of imports reduce the effect of liquidity growth on inflation both in the short and the long run. Also, raising the oil revenues decrease the inflationary effect of liquidity growth in the long run. In other words, an increase in the supply of imported goods (because of a boom in oil revenues) leads to an increase in domestic money demand and partially neutralizes the inflationary effect of liquidity growth. Besides the panel regression, a regression analysis of Iranian economy data is used to test the hypothesis. These results also confirm that changes in the import ratio and oil income ratio explain the difference in liquidity growth and inflation.

In the present study, by presenting the wavelet method (economic and physical analysis) and coherence analysis, the relationship between the real exchange rate and the real interest rate in the Iranian economy was re-explained based on the theory of purchasing power parity in the form of a monetary dual model in the short-term, medium-term and long-term time horizons. For this purpose, the data in available monthly and used during the period from April 1359 to March 1399. The results of the Granger causality test reject the assumption of causality in all time periods from the real interest rate to the real exchange rate, however, in the short term and in some periods, the causality relationship from the exchange rate Real is towards the real interest rate. Based on the results obtained (based on monthly data), for the real exchange rate index and the real interest rate, many correlation areas have been observed in intervals of less than one year, almost throughout the time period. This shows a strong correlation between the two variables in the short term. Also, the results indicate that the intensity and direction of the relationship between the two variables is not constant in the short term and has changed repeatedly, so that the monetary model cannot be interpreted with sticky prices. By moving from the short term to the long term, the relationship between the real interest rate and the real exchange rate index is in phase, and the real interest rate variable is leading and the real exchange rate is declining; Therefore, in the medium-term and long-term horizon, a direct relationship between these two variables can be seen to an extent that confirms the theory of purchasing power parity (monetary model with flexible prices).

Unemployment rate, as an important economic indicator, has always been one of the main issues of policymakers and economists. Various factors affect the unemployment rate. Considering the economic conditions of Iran as an oil exporting country the purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price, oil price uncertainty and interest rate on unemployment in Iran using seasonal data, during the period from 1382:1 to 1399:4. In this regard, using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag method (NARDL), the relationship between variables has been investigated. The results show that the effect of positive and negative changes in oil prices and interest rates on the unemployment rate is asymmetric, but the effect of positive and negative changes in the oil price uncertainty variable on the unemployment rate is symmetric.The results show that the effect of positive and negative changes in oil prices and interest rates on the unemployment rate is asymmetric, but the effect of positive and negative changes in the oil price uncertainty variable on the unemployment rate is symmetric.

he spread of the virus (Quid 19) since January 2017 in Wuhan, China has caused many diseases and deaths in the world. The consequences of this virus have caused recession and other global problems so that even developed countries claim to have social health systems. Advanced were in trouble. Questions or hypotheses including: a) The main questions of the research: Does the financial crisis of Corona have a significant impact on the stock index of selected listed companies? Model sub-questions: Do currency crises have a significant effect on the stock index of selected stock exchange companies? Do oil crises have a significant effect on the stock index of selected stock exchange companies? Sub-hypotheses of the research: Currency crises have a significant effect on the stock index of selected listed companies. Oil crises have a significant impact on the stock index of selected listed companies. The statistical population is all companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange Organization that the research return time period is seven years between 1392 and 1399. The method used in the present study is descriptive-analytical, which in order to adapt economic theories to the realities of society, the relationships between variables are examined using statistics and after matching the theories, using From the inferential statistics and econometric method of the panel in Iveys software, the rejection or proof of the presented hypotheses is tested. All three models were accepted.

This paper studies the effects of central bank credibility on nominal interest rate and output gap on 17 inflation targeting (IT) developing countries using Instrument Variables (IV) over a period that spans 24 years (1996-2019). In the first stage, using new Keynesian model is obtained “Credibility loss” index to measure the importance of central bank past performance and its deviation from its target. The findings show the existence of a non-linear effect of credibility loss on deviation of past inflation from target, the existence of positive and significant effect of credibility loss index on interest rate, the existence of positive and significant effect of nominal interest rate on output gap, and finally the existence of positive and significant effect of credibility loss index on output gap by interest rate channel. These findings suggest that the central banks increase the credibility of the policies set by improving their performance over time by increasing the accountability, reducing the effect of political pressures on policy-making and increasing their commitment to the determined goals and also by creating positive beliefs among economic agents control their expectations and reduce the pressure of existing shocks and have a positive effect on macro variables.

Islamic banking has attracted much attention in the financial economics literature due to its rapid growth. Islamic banking has emerged as an alternative to the conventional form of banking and has grown rapidly in Muslim and non-Muslim countries over the past three decades. Islamic banks have expanded their bases in more than 60 countries around the world, and Islamic banks are expected to receive a large share of savings in Muslim-majority countries, which play an important role in investing in these countries. Will have. Investment is an important component of macroeconomics and plays an important role in growth and transition from recession. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of interest rates on the investment function in a selection of major countries with Islamic and conventional banking systems during the period 1995-2018 using the data panel method. The results of this study showed that in both groups of the country studied, the effect of per capita income on investment function was positive and significant. According to other results, in the sample Muslim countries, trading and prudent incentives were stronger than the speculative incentive, and it seems that Keynes' theory of investment demand was not necessarily confirmed in the sample Muslim countries studied for the period under review.

There have been many studies on the effects of monetary policy on the exchange rate in the Iranian economy. But due to the successive structural changes and changes in the political regime, these effects are not expected to be linear and stable. Therefore, in this study, we want to examine the effect of nonlinear behavior of variable money volume on exchange rate by using STR regression models. For this purpose, we have used the annual data of the variables of GDP, interest rate, inflation rate, money supply and exchange rate during the period 1357-1397. Research shows that a significant nonlinear relationship between money supply and exchange rate is confirmed. Based on the results, the variables of money supply and inflation rate have had a significant negative and positive effect on the real exchange rate, respectively, during the study period. By controlling liquidity growth and transferring it to a low growth regime, the effect of variables such as inflation and interest rates on the exchange rate can be eliminated or reduced. According to the results of this article, at lower threshold levels of money supply, it is possible to use monetary policy to stimulate economic growth and real sector activities with low inflationary effects.

The relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation is one of the most important issues in macroeconomic issues. Knowing this relationship and knowing the direction of this relationship will have many benefits for all economic and monetary policymakers. In this study, by expanding the theory of quantity of money, we examine the relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation rates and test this relationship using the gentle transition regression approach during 1352-96. The results show that as interest rates rise (especially when the interest rate exceeds its threshold), its impact on inflation increases. Also, the effect of interest rates on the general level of prices does not have a severe effect and changes in parameters are slow. Therefore, it can be concluded that interest rate instruments cannot be used to control high inflation and the use of policies that reduce the speed of money circulation can be more effective in controlling the general level of prices. This result shows in general terms that in the long run, interest rate income that enters the economy from payment to the factors of production is practically compensated and eliminated by reducing the purchasing power of money due to the increase in the general level of prices in society. Perhaps this can be considered as one of the wisdoms that God Almighty has said in the Holy Qur'an about the sanctity of usury: "God forbid usury" means that God eliminates usury; cited.

The unstable state of macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), investment, and inflation rate, as well as the disproportionate level of high volume of cash held by private individuals versus the low volume of liquidity in manufacturing firms, have always been a significant problem in Iran's economy. In this respect, the relationship among the stock market, bank deposits, and speculation in the foreign exchange market, and also, the central bank's role in directing liquidity between them to affect the macroeconomic indicators are important. The current study evaluates this subject for 1988–2018 using a system of simultaneous equations and the three-stage least squares (3SLS) method. The findings indicate that there has been a significant negative relationship among the stock market, bank deposits, and foreign exchange speculation. The stock market and bank deposits have had a significant positive effect on investment and GDP, and in contrast, foreign exchange speculation has shown a significant negative impact. Conversely, bank deposits have negatively impacted the consumer price index (CPI), whereas foreign exchange speculation has shown a substantial direct effect. Finally, despite the existence of a significant negative relationship between three financial markets in the Iranian economy confirmed by the obtained results, the central bank has forfeited a considerable portion of its potential effectiveness in directing liquidity between parallel financial markets to affect nominal and real economic indicators due to interest rate repression.