جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "سناریو نگاری" در نشریات گروه "علوم انسانی"

The aim of the current research is to identify the factors affecting the future livability of the 6th district of Tehran metropolis and then analyze these factors to present different scenarios in the horizon of 1420. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature. The statistical population, the statistics and information related to the year 2015 of the study area, which was obtained from the Iranian Statistics Center and the Delphi method, are municipal experts, specialists and urban elites.To collect the required data, library and field methods have been used, and to analyze the data, various future research techniques, mutual effects analysis (structural analysis) and scenario writing have been used. In this regard, future research software such as Micmac has been used. In the first round, 60 factors, in the second round, 33 factors, and in the third round, 33 factors were analyzed as effective factors without change. Experts have identified 24 key factors and 9 effective drivers. the livability of area 6 is unfavorable in different dimensions and finally four different scenarios were analyzed. Among the 33 factors, 3 main factors were selected as the key factors affecting the future of livability, which have the least influence. These variables include employment, population density, reduction of commercial-administrative per capita, extra-regional role, reduction of residential per capita, presence of higher education users, extra-regional therapeutic uses and immigration

Floods as one of the natural hazards can cause much damage to cities and communities. Khorramabad city is also one of the cities exposed to this danger. Therefore, the current research aims to analyze the resilience scenarios of Khorramabad City against flood risk to provide solutions for the future. This research is practical and descriptive-analytical, and exploratory. The research data collection is based on the Delphi technique. A sample size of 44 people was determined to identify the key drivers, a sample size of 10 people was determined to develop scenarios, and the sampling method was a snowball. In this research, the key driver in the field of flood resilience of Khorramabad city was extracted using Mic Mac software, the descriptors were analyzed using Scenario Wizard, and the consistency value of flood resilience scenarios of Khorramabad city was determined. 10 key drivers and 36 possible situations were determined using the opinion of experts and the output of Mic Mac software for the future resilience of Khorramabad city against floods, and the matrix questionnaire of mutual effects was designed and sent to the experts. The results of the scenario wizard software showed that the key factors of institutions' performance, communication capacity, governance, internet infrastructure, and construction boom in the scenarios have the most adaptive value in the future resilience of Khorramabad city against floods

Nowadays, informal settlements in cities have brought about enormous problems before urban management. Mashhad as a metropolis is no exception to this phenomenon. The increasing urban living costs, migrants’ intake and high population concentration at the outskirts have encountered Mashhad with danger which could further led to complex challenges in the future. The main purpose of this study is to identify the key drivers and formulate future scenarios of informal settlements in Khorasan Razavi province and its capital city Mashhad. Identifying the future situation and compiling the settlement expansion scenarios under the futuristic framework is one of the comprehensive approaches in regional planning. Addressing the factors affecting the future of informal settlements by determining the role of other settlements in the province is an issue that has received less attention in researches. The method is descriptive-analytical where data is collected through questionnaire and analyzed by Mic Mac software. The target research population is 30 people including municipal experts and faculty members of universities. The findings indicate 5 factors: " laws, programs and policies at the national level", "Integrated management of local institutions", "drought and agricultural activities", "unemployment" and "inflation" which are important for the future of informal settlements. The results show that in different scenarios, economic and management factors have the greatest impact on the future of informal settlements in Mashhad and the development of other settlements in the province.

The social and political consequences of environmental degradation have placed the environment at the center of debated in the 21st century. In such a way that ecological insecurity and the destruction of biosphere resources as part of non-traditional threats have been firmly linked with the search for human security. The city of Torbat Jam has been encountering with environmental issues for the past few decades. This article explains the possible scenarios for the environment of this city. The methodology governing the research is descriptive-analytical in nature. The required inputs have been collected by library and field studies and analyzed using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software and FARAS model. The results showed that out of 16 possible situations related to four scenarios with strong compatibility, the situations that express the future relations of the environment of Torbat Jam negatively (on the verge of crisis) are the most possible ones. On this basis, the sustainable management strategy of current and future environmental resource allocation in the situation on the verge of crisis and the strategy of adjusting the current laws and views towards the environment and environmental foundations at the country level and in accordance with it at the level of the city of Torbat Jam in the critical situation, the most appropriate strategies were identified.

Futures Studies in Planning the Self-Employed Businesses Continuity for Women-Headed Households will find the key drivers, key variables, and uncertainties in the development of women's economic empowerment, and will shape the desired future management. The purpose of this study was to identify the factors affecting the management of women's self-employed business continuity management in Chardavol Township, identifying key variables and developing effective scenarios for its realization. The purpose of this study is practical and it is a descriptive-analytical research conducted with an interpretive structural approach to measure the interactions of variables. In terms of the nature of the data, this research is a combination (quantitative and qualitative) and is based on documentary and survey data collection method. The results showed that out of the developed scenarios, there are 6 scenarios with strong adaptation to the future of self-employed women business continuity management in Chardavol. Of the six scenarios mentioned, three scenarios one, two, and three are perfectly desirable, and scenario 1 is the best-case scenario of managing self-employed business continuity of women-headed households in Chardavol.The results showed that out of the developed scenarios, there are 6 scenarios with strong adaptation to the future of self-employed women business continuity management in Chardavol. Of the six scenarios mentioned, three scenarios one, two, and three are perfectly desirable, and scenario 1 is the best-case scenario of managing self-employed business continuity of women-headed households in Chardavol.The results showed that out of the developed scenarios, there are 6 scenarios with strong adaptation to the future of self-employed women business continuity management in Chardavol. Of the six scenarios mentioned, three scenarios one, two, and three are perfectly desirable, and scenario 1 is the best-case scenario of managing self-employed business continuity of women-headed households in Chardavol.

In recent years, rapid and intense changes in technology, as well as important economic, social, cultural and technological changes in the automobile and transportation industry, have created complex conditions for actors and stakeholders in this field. In order to face these complexities, the present research aims to identify the key uncertainties and present the future scenarios of the inner-city car industry. In the present research, using the information obtained from in-depth interviews with experts and activists in the field, reviewing previous studies and examining evidence, statistics and events, the final scenarios have been refined. The findings of this research include 39 important drivers and 13 key uncertainties and 2 critical uncertainties including the level of international cooperation and new and strategic technologies in the automobile industry. Then, based on these two critical uncertainties, four upcoming scenarios in the automobile industry were identified and verified.

Changes in customer needs, behaviors and expectations,Trends in digital technology, banking business trends and the emergence of non-bank competitors (fintech), intensifying market competition between banks and non-bank credit institutions, changing pricing models and costs of banking services, changing the ecosystem of banking activities and rules and The new regulations have challenged banks. The advent of distributed networks such as blockchain, by creating transparency in transactions and open participation in operations, has moved the banking and business processes towards an automated, coordinated and unreliable global framework; While aiming to reduce intermediaries, it also warns banks of the risk of eliminating banks or reducing customers. The present study examines the banking industry by asking the question "What are the future scenarios of the Iranian banking industry?" with library studies and combining two qualitative and quantitative approaches, "Schwartz critical uncertainties" and "Cross impact analysis" and constructing four scenarios: "Phoenix Rises" "Busy Architects-Drugs Awake" "Farang City" and "Burnt City", and analysis of factors and drivers affecting the banking industry, pave the way for charting the future of the country's banking industry and creating and maintaining their competitive advantage has done.

The purpose of this research is to analyze the effects of the new city of Alishahr on the surrounding settlements and to study the future of these effects to draw its different futures from the perspective of different scenarios. In this research, to identify the key factors, after two stages of screening, 54 variables were finally identified in the form of eight indicators, and the future research method was used in the form of mix-and-match analysis and scenario writing. For this research, the opinions of the Delphi group and the snowball sampling method were used. According to the findings of this research, nine important key factors include changes in commercial and residential uses; the Hadi plan for the surrounding villages of the new city; the road network of surrounding settlements; changes in the construction and settlement of the surrounding areas; urbanism of villagers; Communication ways of surrounding settlements; physical expansion of the new city towards the surrounding cities; The access of surrounding settlements to communication and telecommunication means and the location of the village about the road were identified. According to the results obtained from the scenario wizard, there are six compatible and identical scenarios regarding the effects of the new city of Aalishahr on peri-urban areas. The findings of this research allow the policymakers, planners and regional managers to have a better understanding of the future conditions to be able to create more favourable and reasonable conditions of urban development while maintaining the aspect draw the life of peri-urban areas in the future and make decisions about it, this will bring closer the conditions of sustainability in the current conditions with the possibility of achieving sustainability in the future

Today, the importance of the role of human capital as a vital and privileged factor for the survival and success of organizations has been increasingly considered.Organizations should be familiar with the techniques of this action in order to identify and attract capable HR.Competency identification is the common language for describing the needs of each job, and the competency model is an appropriate tool for identifying competencies.The purpose of this study is to present a model of HR competencies for customs organization in Futuristic approach. Identifying the factors Effective the Customs by studying processes by environmental scanning method (PESTEL technique) and identification of drivers is done by analyzing the data in Micmac software. Then, the future Customs scenarios was adjusted (CBI) and analyzed by data in Wizard scenario.To identify indicators of HR competency, while using the scenarios of Customs, the interview method was used and a questionnaire was used to assess the model. Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling and statistical tests in SPSS and PLS software. Identifying environmental factors affecting the organization, identifying drivers, uncertainties, and Customs future scenarios can improve long-term forecasting. Results show; Value, knowledge and skills have been identified as effective dimensions of the competency model and core values,professional, operational and managerial competencies have been identified as model areas (levels). Develop competency model with a futuristic approach as a practical solution can help customs managers define the skills and knowledge needed for jobs, evaluate and improve employee performance, align the talent management process with organizational strategy.

All sport is directly related to dynamism and mental health and also has a significant role in the development of health literacy and leads to increased health at all ages. But despite much progress, it is still looking for a way to generate sustainable revenue. The present study aims to predict the future of professional sports in Iran, to discover the future of All sports and to develop sustainable income generation scenarios for 1414 (2035) and to present a strategy. Futurism with a scenario approach has been used due to the method of intuitive logic and to design the scenarios, the method of trend analysis and uncertainties and a six-stage integrated scenario model were used. The participants of the present study included 25 domestic and foreign stakeholders of Iranian All sports who were selected based on purposive sampling.Data were collected through interviews and open-ended questionnaires.Based on the findings, the analysis of the 30 main factors obtained eventually led to the production of two key uncertainties that formed the basis of the four main scenarios of sustainable monetization of Iranian All sports.

Emphasizing the importance of sustainable urban development, the present study analyzes the futuristic approach and various factors of sustainability in the form of a system in districts one and two of Mashhad. The research follows a descriptive-analytical method using documents, questionnaires, interviews and software analysis. Based on previous studies, 30 initial variables of sustainability were selected and then based on the opinions of 30 experts, six key variables in economic, socio-cultural, physical and environmental dimensions for district 1 and six key variables in economic and physical dimensions for district 2 in the impact matrix MICMAC software crossover was identified. Then, after defining the favorable, mediocre and catastrophic situations for each of the key variables, the experts were asked to consider the effects of situations on each other in the range of 3- to 3 with regards to conditions of the studied districts in order  to use the SCENARIO WIZARD software for analyzing the present patterns of the studied areas. The results of this analysis predict a favorable scenario and a catastrophic scenario for district 1 and five favorable scenarios, a middle scenario and a catastrophic scenario for district 2. If the first scenario, which is the most favorable future for the progress of each district, is not realized, the middle scenario, which is in fact the current situation, and the catastrophic scenario, which is the destruction and reduction of sustainable factors, will be pursued. Although institutional sustainability does not play a key role in the sustainability of districts, but it strongly affects other variables of sustainability. According to the results of matrix analysis of cross-effects, physical, socio-cultural, economic and environmental dimensions play a key role in the sustainability of district one, and physical and economic dimensions play a key role in the stability of district two.

 Due to the key role of the aviation industry in maintaining and promoting safety, efficiency and legality in aerial transportation, this industry has a special place in the economic and social dynamics of society.  Therefore, maintenance of parts, timely supply of equipment and their reliability for industry owners is a strategic priority of any country.  The purpose of the present study is to study the future of maintenance and repair of Iran's aviation industry and to propose appropriate strategies to deal with each scenario.

In the present study, the scenario approach was used with Scenario Wizard software to mediate possible futures and the aviation industry was selected as a case study.  This research is applied in terms of purpose and a survey in terms of method which is done at the exploratory level. statistical society includes aviation industry specialists and managers and university experts that aimed judicative sampling and network (snowball) method has been used.

Using balanced interaction analysis, 5 strong scenarios were obtained and 3 scenarios were selected as optimistic, probable and pessimistic scenarios and also suggestions was presented by this industry experts.

based on the research findings, the reliability of components, allocation of financial resources and proper access to the equipment system have the greatest impact on the future of maintenance and repair of the aviation industry, especially the three scenarios of takeoff, cruise and stall (Landing) for every of them measures have been considered and strategies appropriate to these scenarios have been proposed by experts in the field of aviation industry.

Drug policy-making requires proper estimates of drug-related trends. This reveals the necessity of paying attention to future research in this field. In this regard, the present study seeks to investigate the future of the approaches of the Police against Drugs in Khorasan Razavi province. This research is a mixed research of documentary and survey method. Library studies and questionnaires and Delphi techniques were used to collect the data. The statistical population of the present study is all managers, deputies, senior experts and experts of police in Khorasan Razavi province, who are either decision makers or activists in this field, as well as officials of the Presidential Counter Narcotics Headquarters in the said province. Are people. The purpose of this study was to obtain the opinions of 13 experts. In the present study, Delphi and scenario-based methods were used among the future research methods and according to the nature of the research. They were first identified using the Delphi-uncertainty approach that the drug police will face in the future. Then, two key uncertainties are identified and expressed on the basis of binary scenario scenarios.

In the future, the issue of university social responsibility (USR) will be expanded to a variety of domains of local, national and international communities. Since the social responsibility of higher education in the future transformation process requires a futuristic approach, the current study aims to focus on the same in higher agricultural education. Three main steps were taken in the course of this study. First, based on the focus group approach, drivers of university social responsibility in higher agricultural education were identified. Then, using the interactive analysis method as well as MicMac software, five key drivers were selected from among the 14 identified divers.  Key factors were defined with expert opinions based on the idea of scenario writing on 21 possible and probable situations in the future of university social responsibility. And then by forming 21x21 matrix and applying expert knowledge in assessing the impact of each situation on the occurrence or non-occurrence of other situation, 2 contrasting scenarios (Phoenix and Peacock) as strong ones and 104 scenarios with low and weak probably occurrences were extracted using ScenarioWizard 4.31 software. The phoenix scenario represents the realization of university social responsibility for sustainable local and regional development whereas the peacock scenario stresses that the university as a separate entity lacks social responsibility. In other words, these scenarios indicate the futuristic vision of the university’s social responsibility.

Pandemics are cross-dimensional challenges and can be evaluated and monitored referring to various indicators: mortality rate, the rate of infection, economic consequences, geopolitical implications, etc. focusing on different indicators will lead to making different and even in some cases contradictory policies. Covid-19, the new Coronavirus knows as SARS-CoV-2, Outbreaks threatened healthcare and economic systems comprehensively. World Health Organization (WHO) declared the Covid-19 epidemic as a worldwide pandemic on 11 march 2020 . Pandemics are cross-dimensional challenges and can be evaluated and monitored referring to various indicators: mortality rate, the rate of infection, economic consequences, geopolitical implications, etc. focusing on different indicators will lead to making different and even in some cases contradictory policies. The covid-19 pandemic brought the future closer especially in terms of technological development. Nations with sufficient access to the financial reserve, potential foreign investment opportunities, structured free markets (especially in the downstream supply chain), human resources and global supply chain network, will experience an easier path to recover in the post-CORONA era. It is not the last time we have faced such a “black swan”. We will overcome but we will not always be so lucky. Human society needs to reconsider value paradigms to improve life quality and peaceful coexistence with other species and the environment.

In the present study, the researchers have considered 30 major factors which were identified as indicators in the city's development in Ardabil. After determining the role, relationship and weight of the influential factors in the urban development, the indicators were fed into the Mike Mac software. Finally, after scoring for compiling the scenarios, they were processed using the Wizard scenario software. Finally, 38 cases were obtained for 30 key factors affecting the future of Ardabil urban development. Combining these possible scenarios, 7176 combined scenarios were extracted. These scenarios included 22 high-compatibility, 7012 low-compatibility, and 142 incompatible scenarios. The results of the study showed that two scenarios were more likely to occur in the future development of Ardabil of which one was favorable and under ideal conditions (progressive scenario) while the other one was relatively favorable and intermediate.

The main goal of this research is Future Studies of University Sports of Iran

In this study, using two future research methods including structural analysis and scenario writing, we first identified the key uncertainties of University Sports of Iran and then developed future scenarios for University Sports of Iran. Initial data were collected using interviews with Collegiate athleticsexperts and reviewing the literature. The questionnaire was analyzed by using the Mic-Mac software.

Of the seventeen effective factors, ten important factors were identified and by analyzing the Mic-Mac software, finally, two key factors of financial, economic and lifestyle support were identified. Based on these factors, four scenarios were identified using the Wizard scenario software and Cross Impact Matrix. These scenarios include the age of happiness, the world of indifference, the lazy world and the depressed world.

In the age of happiness scenario, which shows the best situation, high financial support and a good lifestyle lead to a good future for college sports. The depressed world scenario also illustrates the worst situation in which underfunding, inadequate infrastructure, and lack of culture for a dynamic life style lead youth and students to not exercising. By identifying the best and most desirable future, current programs can drive that realization.

Today, among the various approaches proposed in the field of urban management, good urban governance is one of the most famous and most effective approaches

The purpose of the study was to identify and evaluate the most significant variables and principal determinants affecting the future of urban governance up to the 2031 horizon for the Tehran metropolis. It was also looking for the most likely scenarios in the field of urban governance in the 2032 horizon for the Tehran metropolis. Research

The present study used structural analysis and cross-effect analysis to look to analyze the data. The data and information required for the research were a combination of quantitative and qualitative data, which were gathered through documentary research and survey method (questionnaire) and interview with experts in a Delphi model. For data analysis, MICMAC software was used to analyze the interactions of variables and Morphol software to compile scenarios.

Finally, out of a total of 100,000 output scenarios, 5000 scenarios were identified as valid and, given the impossibility of analyzing this number, 10 scenarios with high inertia were selected, and among these 10 scenarios, 4 scenarios with the highest inertia and repeat rates of over 90% were analyzed in subsequent scenarios.

The results showed that there was no any ideal scenario among the scenarios and the only favorable scenario was the response variable that has been repeated in all four scenarios, which indicated the weakness of Tehran's metropolitan management structure in realizing good urban governance.

Tourism is one of the most important tools of development in the world. In their policies and programs, many countries in the world pay special attention to tourism as an effective tool for political, cultural and economic development. Understanding future developments and planning for them is an inevitable necessity. This research aims to identify the main factors involved in tourism and delineate a realistic and desirable future for the sustainable tourism in Meybod. The study is practical in terms of purpose. In terms of method, it is a combination of documentation and survey. In terms of nature, it is based on new methods of futurology, analysis and exploration conducted by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The prioritization of possible scenarios for the tourism in Meybod is based on two indicators including probability and desirability. The research was carried out in three stages: determining the key indicators through the Delphi method, identifying the vital drivers through the MicMac software based on a cross-section analysis and formulating different scenarios. For the statistical population, a number of geography and urban and regional planning specialists, tourism specialists and executive experts of the province and city were selected. As the results showed, among 14 key factors, five drivers including attractions, history, economy, management and planning were identified as vital drivers of the development of Meybod tourism industry. The vital drivers in three modes, three modes and 82% of modes indicated the desirability of sustainable tourism. The most desirable scenario was proposed as the Golden Meybod scenario, which will be based on creating amenities and a variety of tourist attractions along with management and planning.

Identifying probable scenarios of national news media is important through key trends and uncertainties. In this research, using Delphi method and analyzing experts' opinions, among 30 main trends in three areas of technological change, audience changes and content changes were identified key news uncertainty in the next 5 years. Following the selection of key factors, using the experts' comments, the interaction effects matrix was drawn for these key uncertainties. Finally, using the technique of interactive effects analysis in Scenario-wizard software and were identified, , 64 scenarios. 4 scenarios of these scenarios were identified with High compatibility .according to their characteristics, were named titles of News Domination, News Gap , news Shock, and news Inflation.by analyzing the indicators derived from the Scenario Wizard software one scenario is selected a desirable scenario . This scenario is News domination.In this scenario, the possibility of widespread broadcasting of audio and images in digital and analogue space makes the IRIB more domination in the news space and media streaming by providing various interpretations and analyzing.