مقالات رزومه دکتر آرش دوراندیش

Having a plan of crop pattern suitable to climatic conditions ensures the sustainability of agricultural production and food security and makes the capacities of each region be used properly, this possibility can be investigated and implemented in the form of policy packages and by designing targeted incentive packages and According to the needs of the farmers and then providing the packages to the farmers, they will stimulate the farmers to implement the cultivation pattern, which can play an effective role in the operationalization of the cultivation pattern in the fields by the farmers. The purpose of this study is Investigating the influencing factors on the willingness of farmers to accept incentive packages for operationalizing the crop pattern proposed by the government in Khorasan Razavi province.In this study, 283 farmers were selected using the available non-random sampling method, and the necessary data and information were collected using a questionnaire and face-to-face interview. Also, using multinomial logit regression, the purpose of the study was examined.The results of the research showed that the variables of The number of household labour, market risk, financial risk, attitude, perceived behavioral control and membership in social institutions have a positive and significant effect on the selection of the management-infrastructure package and the variables of Amount of non-agricultural income, medium-scale farmers, subjective norms, financing willingness, marital status and Enough access to Water have a negative and significant effect. Also, variables of place of residence, The number of household labour, participation and cooperation with agricultural jihad, attitude, perceived behavioral control, cultural factors and membership in social institutions have a positive and significant effect and variables of large-scale farmers, weather risk, subjective norms, behavioral intention, satisfaction with The policy and objectives of the agricultural jihad and the activity and participation in the farmers' group have a negative and significant effect on the choice of a subsidy package.

Social risks are another specific phenomenon in the agricultural sector. . In the present study, in order to identify ethical risks and adverse selection in Khorasan Razavi irrigated wheat insurance, a simultaneous equation system model . The sample size was determined by proportional sampling Collected. The results indicate that insured farming in warm-temperate and cold-temperate regions have not reduced inputs for production per unit area of wheat, indicating a lack of ethical risk in these areas. In contrast, the results from the cold zone show that the insured beneficiaries has reduced the consumption of inputs in the area, indicating a moral hazard in this area. Also, the results of the test of the hypothesis of constant returns to scale versus the decreasing or increasing return hypothesis for variable inputs show the absence of adverse selection. Therefore, it is suggested that appropriate training and extension classes be held for farmers in order to better understand the time and manner of using chemical fertilizers and the appropriate time for irrigation.

In Bushehr province finishing and becoming salty of groundwaters in some fields like Dayer, Kangan, Jam, Assaluyeh make alarm as an active for water lack in other fields of Bushehr province. This study considers the objectives of achieving the maximum economic gross margin, the minimum underground water draft as well as the reduced greenhouse gas emissions, then, attempts to determine optimal cropping pattern for farmers in Jam County. The data for the study were obtained following the completion of questionnaires 60 farmers in Jam County in the years 2017 and 2018. In this regard, a Fuzzy Multi-Objective Linear Programming Model was applied. The results illustrated that in the homogeneous group of farmers with more than 3 hectares, growing of such crops as wheat, tomato, cucumber, onion was decreased, the production of barely, aubergine was increased, water intake from ground fields 35%, emission of greenhouse gases 25% was decreased. However, government may consider some facilities for other cost making farmer’s activities providing stability, sustainability for coinciding this type of patterns for farming of mentioned region.

Factor productivity analysis is a useful management tool at any economic level, and due to the environmental effects of economic activities and costs, not paying attention to these effects in evaluating economic performance leads to results. It goes away from reality. In this regard, one of the important aspects in the issue of productivity is to study the differences in productivity of countries, analyze the trend and their convergence. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to investigate the changes in environmental productivity growth of selected countries in the Mena region and the existence of convergence between them in the period 2009-2020 using Fare-Primont index and root test of Pesaran panel unit. According to the results of the Environmental Productivity Index, Tunisia, Yemen, Morocco, Libya, Qatar, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have grown in the study period. Comparison of the results of normal and environmental productivity index shows that in terms of unfavorable output, the productivity index of all countries studied has decreased. Based on the results, the agricultural productivity of the studied countries is convergent. Therefore, structural changes in the agriculture of the countries of the Mena region and changes in the productivity of the factors of production of each of them will affect the productivity and growth of the agricultural sector of these countries.

The research aim is to study the yield including irrigated and dry-farmed wheat, barley, and corn in the climate and sub-climates of the country. So, the average yield of the studied products, average rainfall, and average temperature data have been used for the climatic change from the period 1982-2015. Due to the fact that cereal products over 56% and 77% of the cultivated area in arid and semi-arid regions, respectively. Therefore, in this study, only cereal are studied and among all of the crops, they have been selected, the five crops that have the highest area under cultivation. Finally, the function of various crops’ demands was used to investigate the effects of climate change on crops.The results show that the highest yield coefficients of rainfall are to precipitation in cold and sub-climates semi-arid cold, semi-arid hot, semi-arid temperate, cold dry, hot dry and temperate dry are related to dryland wheat, irrigated wheat, dryland wheat, dryland barley, dryland barley, dryland wheat, respectively. In addition, the highest coefficients of function of demands to temperature in cold and sub-climates of semi-arid cold, semi-arid warm, semi-arid temperate, cold dry, hot dry and temperate dry are related to dryland wheat, dryland barley, irrigated wheat and dryland barley, dryland wheat, respectively. According to the results of the research and in order to efficiently manage production and better performance, agricultural products in climates and sub-climates in the country are recommended. Compilation of a comprehensive cultivation model and allocation of the type of crop cultivation in the climate and sub-climate should be done by considering the reaction rate of the yield of the products and the exploitation of most of the mentioned products.

International trade theories have highlighted the importance of specialization of countries to benefit from the global trade network. In addition to foreign currency earnings, the development agricultural exports can play an important role in ensuring food security and improving the level of resilience of agricultural sector in Iran. One of the approaches to analyze export development process is to study export possibilities from the perspective of comparative export advantage and specializing in the framework of advantage dynamics. So the present study seeks to explore the following research question: has the exports of selected Iranian agricultural products (pistachio, saffron, dates, raisin, apple, cucumber and kiwi) has moved towards specialization in the global market? To achieve this goal, we assess the specialization pattern of Iran over the period 2001 to 2017. Findings reveal that all the selected products had a comparative export advantage during the selected period, but none of them has moved towards specialization. In other words, despite having the export comparative advantage, Iran has not have long-term plans to promote exports of selected products in the global market. The analysis in the form of panel data during the two periods of 2001-2009 and 2010-2017 also indicates that the export of selected products do not support dynamism and specialization over time. Regarding the export capacities of Iran's agricultural sector, it is recommended to enter into long-term contracts in the target markets in order to increase the export share of selected products through adaptation and implementation of continuous production and export policies.

What torments Iran’s Agricultural Sector is the mere technocratism aspect with no regard to the other dimensions of development. Technocrats with their single and limited dimension just are in favor of technology application and its advantages regardless of the actual problems often these technologies create in the sector as well as in the society. Agricultural extension and education, the twin complementary educational sub-sector, the only dual dimension expertise in human resource development that from one hand use information communication technology and in the other hand understanding, applying and disseminating production technologies , are acting as the agricultural development vehicle. This qualitative investigation was after the status quo search of agricultural extension and education eco-compatible technologies in Iran using focus group methodology and applying documentary longitudinal descriptive analytical technique. Findings discussed, purified, combined and analyzed in the focus group (the Agricultural Economic and Extension Education Branch of the Iran Academy of Sciences) in terms of specialized, advance agricultural extension and education eco-compatible technologies. Findings reviled at least 18 agricultural extension technology or module, among them Internet of Things (IoT), which is applicable only when precise agriculture and low impute agricultural modules are mass developed and applied.

The agricultural sector and its related activities have certain characteristics, which expose it to numerous unforeseen risks and damages, resulting in multiple losses and problems. Therefore, identifying and evaluating these risks and damages can help farmers make the right decisions. The purpose of the present study is to identify and evaluate melon crop production risks, and to prepare risk profiles for this crop.

Two criteria of frequency of occurrence and extent of risk, and finally risk matrix were used to assess the damage of each production risks. The sample size was determined based on simple random sampling procedure and the data were collected through face-to-face interviews with 50 melon farmers in Mashhad in 2019.

Study findings suggest that the largest risk area in terms of risk frequency and risk effect is assigned to the fifth area including drought risk, pests, various illnesses, birds and melon fly, following by the first area with 4 risks and the second and third areas with 1 risk.

We highly recommend the use of risk profiles to design patterns and insurance coverage which fits various risks. As a result, losses of insurance fund will mitigate and major and important risks in melon production will be covered, and thus, insurance demand will increase.

One of the main activities of banks is the allocation of resources, one of the main aspects of which is determining the optimal combination of credits to various economic sectors. Lack of attention to the allocation of financial resources available to the bank, can cause serious damage to the entire economic system. In this study with the purpose of determining the optimal portfolio of the bank, each of the different activities of the creditor was considered as an asset. Given that the fluctuations in the ratio of lending credits collection are the main source of expected bank earnings fluctuations, so the amount of lending credits of each economic activity, which need to be collected are considered as return standard of, and its variance is consider as a risk. Also, in order to determine the range of expected return on assets, the historical average on each asset is calculated. Considering the necessity of reviewing this issue, in this paper, a multi-objective non-linear programming model using the firefly algorithm has been used to determine the optimal portfolio of agricultural bank credits. The main features of this research are the consideration of three optimistic pessimistic and hybrid strategies under different economic conditions. The results showed that the optimal pattern obtained from the firefly algorithm differs from the current model of distribution of bank credits.The present findings can provide managers with a roadmap for choosing the optimal portfolio consistent with the bank's preferences according to different estimates of return and risk, thus leading to the proper management of loans

Lack of access to adequate energy and the prevalence of undernourishment are of the most important issues in the developing world due to their impacts on public health and individual’s physical and mental abilities in society. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the impacts of drought, food production diversity and different household characteristics on the prevalence of undernourishment in rural areas of Iran. For this purpose, panel quantile regression was considered as the best technique to estimate the impacts of social and economic indicators on the prevalence of undernourishment during the period of 2012-2016. The main results indicated that among the household characteristics, increase in household income, share of food in household expenditure and age of household head and among the environmental indicators, increase in food production diversity would prevent the prevalence of undernourishment in studied rural households; on the other hand, increase in household size, education expenditure, drought severity, and food price indexes would increase the prevalence of undernourishment. Based on these results, non-agricultural income tax exemptions in the rural areas and redistribution of current subsidies by focusing on highly malnourished areas as well as focusing on large rural households, providing policies that reduce the impacts of drought on food production and ultimately, promoting the strategies that allow for increased diversification of food production at the household level could be suggested to prevent further malnutrition in the rural areas.

Water insecurity is a growing concern worldwide, especially for developing countries, where a wide range of activities, including agriculture, depend on water supply systems. Iran is no exception. For example, the increasing use of surface and groundwater resources in the Mashhad plain as a result of the development of agriculture and related industries in this plain has led to an intensification of the declining trend of its aquifer level. Therefore, the resilience of Mashhad plain is very important in reducing groundwater resources. In this research, it has been tried to analyze the priority of these variables after determining the basic variables affecting the model, according to the opinion of experts and using the two best-worst business methods and the process of hierarchical analysis. In the future, knowledge will define the basic strategies for increasing the resilience of these resources in this plain. According to the literature review, this research is the first attempt to apply the best-worst business method in this field of research. The results of this study showed that the discharge rate of groundwater in agriculture with a final weight of 0.18103 in the BWM section and 0.21216 in the AHP section, respectively, the existing agricultural groundwater resources with a final weight of 0.0444 in the BWM section and 0.174165 in the AHP section, the amount of surface and groundwater losses in the agricultural sector with a final weight of 0.10248 in the BWM section and 0.884 in the AHP section, with different order in the two methods, are of the highest importance.

Understanding the temporal and spatial fluctuations of climatic parameters (such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, etc.) and its impact on agricultural sector is essential for managing agricultural resources and adopting appropriate strategies. Precipitation directly affects the production of dry crops by supplying the required moisture for the plant, and indirectly affects the production of aquatic crops through supplying surface and underground water resources. Climate change has an effect on temperature and precipitation distribution and consequently affects the plants water requirement and agricultural water consumption. Overall, climate change is influenced by both temperature and precipitation. Due to the changing rainfall pattern and average temperature of the atmosphere, this phenomenon can damage the production of agricultural products that maintain the major food sources of the country. Given the important role of agriculture in the country's economy and the existence of the ongoing water crisis and drought in the country, climate change can have major impacts on their aggravation. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the effects of climate change and water scarcity on agricultural production, price and income in Iran.

The multi-market model, sometimes referred to as the "finite general equilibrium" or "multi-market partial equilibrium model", has reduced the complexities of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The AMM template was used for this purpose. To simulate the effects of climate change, crop yields were calculated using yield response coefficients. Then, the demand function of different products was calculated using estimated elasticities and finally climate change has been simulated for 2025.

The results showed that climate change would increase, yield of rainfed wheat, blue barley, dry barley and maize grain in semi-arid climate and subtropical climate, in addition dry barley and barley products in warm semi-arid climate and subtropical climate, and finally rainfed barley and corn products Grain in temperate semi-arid climates and subtropicals climate by 2025 relative to current levels. Climate change also would decrease yields of dry wheat and barley in temperate semi-arid climates and subtropicals, and also wheat in warm and semi-arid climates and subtropicals for 2025 compared to the present value. The results also showed that climate change would expand the water available for the blue wheat crop in the semi-arid climate and sub-climates, besides the blue barley crop in the semi-arid, semi-arid, and temperate semi-arid climates for 2025 compared to the present value. Climate change also might reduce the amount of water available for the blue wheat crop in the climate and sub-arid and semi-arid sub-climates, therefor the corn yield in the cold and semi-arid sub-climates and sub-climates for 2025 compared to the present value. The results also revealed that climate change would diminish cultivation of maize crop in semi-arid climate and temperate climates in addition irrigated and rainfed wheat crop in warm and semi-arid sub-climate and also rainfed wheat crop in semi-arid climate by 2025 relative to the present situation. Also the area under cultivation of blue barley and dry barley crops in warm and semi-arid climates, cold and semi-arid climates, and blue wheat crop in semi-arid climates and rainfed wheat crop in temperate and semi-arid climates would decrease by 2025.

The results also demonstrated that with the climate change, the amount of maize crop production in cold and semi-arid climates and sub-climates, and the production of blue and dry wheat crops in warm and semi-arid climates, cold semi-arid, temperate and dry semi-arid climates for 20 years would decrease relative to current value. Also, the production of irrigated and rainfed barley in warm and semi-arid climates, sub-climates and temperate semi-arid climates for 2025 would increase compared to the present situation. Thus the first hypothesis of the study: "Climate change and water scarcity reduces agricultural production" is not approved in Iran. The results also explained that with the climate change the prices of wheat, barley and maize crops in the semi-arid and temperate climates for the year 2025 would also rise, so the second hypothesis of the study "Climate change and scarcity of water resources will increase the prices of agricultural products in Iran” is confirmed. The results also show that with climate change, farmers 'incomes in cold and semi-arid climates, temperate and warm semi-arid climates would increase by 2025 relative to their present value, so the third research hypothesis that "climate change and water scarcity reduces farmers' income" In Iran, " is not confirmed. The results also indicated that wheat, barley and maize exports remained negative by the creation of net climate change for 2025 and that the country's climate change created an importer of these products.

Saffron is one of the agricultural products considered for cultivation by Afghan farmers in recent years. Investigation of willingness of farmers in this region to continue cultivating this crop is especially important in developing this product and promoting it at the global level due to the exceptional position of Afghanistan’s saffron in the world. Therefore, the aim of this study is investigating willingness of farmers in Herat to continue production of Saffron. Data was collected using the random sampling method and completing questionnaires and performing personal interviews with saffron farmers in the Herat province in 2018 with 202 samples. The willingness to continue cultivating saffron farmers in the Herat Province was classified into four categories: very low, low, medium, and high. The results of using the ordered Logit model show that the variables yield, price, size of the farmer's household, saffron cultivation experience and capital have a positive influence on increasing willingness to continue cultivation of this product by saffron producers. On the other hand, non-agricultural income, age and availability of labor have an inverse effect on willingness to continue saffron production. At the end, suggestions are provided to achieve the research’s goal. These include provision of low-cost facilities for farmers to provide easier and cheaper access to utilization of new technologies such as use of laboratories, improvement of packaging quality and drying equipment.

In this study, the impact of different food groups’ consumption, social and economic indicator on the share of food in household expenditure in the rural and urban area of Iran investigated. For this purpose, panel quantile regression considered as the best technique. The results indicated that the impact of social and economic indicators and food groups’ consumption varies in different quantiles. Moreover, between social and economic variables, income, food price index and literacy rate considered as the most effective determinants of food expenditure in rural and urban areas. Furthermore, consumption of cereal and dairy in a rural area and cereal and vegetables in an urban area do not affect the household’s food expenditure; on the other hand, increase in consumption of meat and crop oils in rural and urban area upsurge the share of food in the household expenditure. Based on the results, the implication of policies, which lead to household income improvement and stabilized the food price can improve food availability in both rural and urban areas. Besides, the introduction of the innovative and stable method of dairy and vegetable production in a rural area and encouraging the urban household to consume more vegetables results in more diverse diet and enhance the food security and simultaneously don’t increase the share of food in household expenditure.

Increasing factor productivity in the agricultural sector is essential, and with the growing population, the need to invent more productive systems is highlighted. However, agronomic activities have always been accompanied by environmental impacts. Therefore, the two categories of productivity and agricultural sustainability should be considered simultaneously. The present study aimed at identifying factors affecting the total factor productivity of saffron farms in Gonabad County with an emphasis on the role of attitude towards sustainable agriculture. In order to achieve the research objectives, 110 questionnaires were completed and after calculating the total factor productivity using the Tornqvist-Theil index, an Ordered-logit model was used to identify factors affecting productivity. The results indicate that attitudes toward sustainable agriculture and income have positive and significant effects on farmers' access to higher levels of productivity, while variable of participation in training courses significantly reduces the probability of achieving higher levels of productivity. Variables of sown area, agricultural insurance and main job do not have significant effects on the probability of achieving different levels of productivity. Undertaking policies which improve attitude of saffron producers towards sustainable agricultural activities and informing them about the effects of unsustainable farming, a fundamental revision of the content of training courses, financial support of farmers for provision of agricultural inputs and reforming the structure of the agricultural insurance system are effective ways to improve productivity of saffron production.

Given the importance of pursuing a policy of free-market prices in bread and flour markets within Iran’s subsidies reform, this study aimed at recognizing and prioritizing the most important factors affecting the bread and flour prices under such an assumed situation using AHP and FAHP methods and comparing the results. The required data were gathered in 2013 through questionnaires and interviews with seven experts who had been active in government offices as well as the bread and flour producers. Unlike the FAHP results, the AHP results were proven to be valid. Furthermore, the AHP results indicated that the most important contributing factors of flour prices would be domestic wheat prices, international wheat prices plus export volume, respectively; in addition, bread prices would be influenced firstly by flour prices and then by wages and fuel costs, respectively. Therefore, since following the implementation of free-market price policy in bread and flour markets, the bread prices might be significantly influenced by the wheat ‎prices, it would be inevitable to build up a stable wheat market through a market regulation mechanism and to make a careful reconsideration ‎of wheat guaranteed prices in this respect. ‎

Climate change is an irreversible change in average climate. This phenomenon has a wide temporal and spatial range and, consequently, has a major impact on various economic sectors including water and agriculture. Economic implications of climate change affect water resources, taking into account opportunity costs and benefits of allocating and storing water resources during climate change. In order to achieve this goal, considering sensitive climate conditions in arid regions and multiple consequences of climate change in these areas, this study aimed to investigate economic effects of climate change and water deficiency in arid regions on the production, price and income of the agricultural sector in Iran.

  For this purpose, the present study used an Agricultural Multi-market Model (AMM) that is superior to other methods because of its endogenous price considerations. It is also designed for agriculture with high geographical distribution (Ponce et al., 2014). The core of the AMM consists of two sets of equations. The first set depicts the behavior of agricultural producers (supply) and the second set depicts a picture of consumer behavior (demand).

The results showed a potential decrease as a result of climate change in the area under cultivation of maize crop under warm, cold and dry climates, as well as in barley, rainfed wheat and wheat under warm, cold and dry climates until 2025. The results also showed that with climate change, a decrease would be observed in maize crop production in hot dry, cold dry and temperate dry sub-climates as well as in wheat and rainfed wheat in temperate dry sub-climates until 2025, as compared to 2016. Wheat, barley and maize crops would also increase under hot, cold and temperate climates until 2025 compared to 2016. Climate change is projected to increase farmers' income in hot, cold, and temperate sub-climates. Moreover, the results revealed that with climate change, net exports of wheat, barley and maize would remain negative for 2025 and the country would remain an importer of these agricultural products.

According to the results, the average price of agricultural products would increase for the sub-climates by increasing climate change. Since products under consideration are inelastic commodities, it is emphasized that a price protection policy should be adopted to increase the consumer purchase power. The results showed that the temperature response coefficient is more for wheat, rainfed wheat and barley in warm and dry sub-climates, for rainfed wheat, barley and rainfed crops in cold dry climate and for rainfed barley in dry temperate climate, as compared to rainfall. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the cultivation level of these products in the above sub-climates.

Regarding the dominant role of wheat in Iranian households diet, the major goal of this study.is to identify and analyse important influencing factors of wheat price in Iran. In this direction, we introduced a conceptual mathemathical model to scrutinise major contributing factors of wheat price, then we used a structural equation model to to test the credibility of our proposed model and peioritise above-mentioned factors as well. Results show that most important influencing factors of wheat price are domestic barly and corn prices, international wheat price, domestic cultivation area of wheat as well as the amount of precipitation in plantaion and growth periods of wheat cultivation respectively. Furthermore, results indicate a fairly balanced influence of demand and supply-side factors on wheat price.

Saffron is one of the most important agricultural and export products whose production is the main source of income in many rural areas in east of the country. However, the yield of saffron farms decreased by almost 36% during 1971-2015. The Gonabad county in the Khorasan Razavi province as one of the largest saffron producers in Iran also faces this problem. Evidences suggest that the high use of chemical inputs, especially chemical fertilizers, can be considered as one of the main causes of yield decrease. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effective factors on use of chemical fertilizers with an emphasis on the role of attitude and awareness of saffron producers. In order to achieve the research objectives, 105 questionnaires were completed based on proportional random sampling and an ordered logit model was carried out. The results showed that two variables of farmers’ attitude towards sustainable agriculture and awareness about yield-reducing factors have negative and significant effects on the probability of chemical fertilizer use. While the variables of farmers’ income, age, education and agricultural insurance have positive and significant effect on the probability of chemical fertilizer use. Therefore, undertaking appropriate policies in order to boost farmers’ attitude towards sustainable agricultural practices and increase the awareness of farmers about the negative and long-term effects of excessive use of chemical fertilizers, encouraging trusted and experienced farmers to reduce the use of fertilizers and reconsidering the content of training courses have a decisive role in enhancing the pattern of chemical fertilizers use.

In recent decades Climate and its changes have become one of the world major issues and as one of the major environmental problems. Agricultural sector is one of the first areas affected by these changes because farmers are not able to control climatic conditions; however, management and change in factors such as crop cultivar and optimization of the cultivation pattern according to area climate can reduce the adverse effects on growth and yield of agricultural products and play a significant role in the sustainable production of foods. Therefore, in this research, the effects of climate change on cropping pattern in Mashhad have been investigated. The statistics and data needed for the research were collected through Mashhad Agriculture Jihad Organization, meteorology Organization, as well as in-person interviews with agriculture specialists and farmers in Mashhad. The results of this study show that rainfall level, maximum and minimum seasonal temperatures have increasing trend and these changes have a significant effect on the yield of crops in the region. Also, considering the climate change scenarios (to 2031) during the planting period of each studied product, their crop area values have been changed and farmers' gross margin increased by 1.6 percent compared to the base year (2014). Finally, the results of this study indicate that the greatest changes in yield due to climatic conditions are related to wheat and barley; therefore, it is necessary for policy makers to pay attention to this issue in order to reduce the risk of these products production and prevent from reduced production of these strategic crops.

This study has considered the factors regarding the willingness to pay weather-based index insurance of apple gardeners of Damavand county in the proposed plan. For this purpose, Logit and Tobit models were used. Required information were collected through interviews and completing questionnaires of 307 gardeners of Damavand region by stratified random sampling with suitable assigning. Results of Logit model showed that factors such as education level, garden area, using current insurance, garden construction region, familiarity with weather-based index insurance and the type of gardener activity have a positive and significant effect, and gardeners' satisfaction of the current insurance has a negative effect on the acceptance probability of the proposed plan of weather-based index insurance. The average willingness to pay apple gardeners' premium in Damavand county has been calculated as 7900 thousand Rials per hectare. Also, the results of Tobit model indicated that the level of education, garden area, using the current insurance, the location of garden construction, the level of familiarity with weather-based index insurance, and the type of gardener activity have a positive effect on the level of willingness to pay insurance premium of apple gardeners. Since such factors as the gardener's education level and his knowledge about the weather-based index insurance has a positive and significant impact on acceptability probability of the weather-based index insurance and willingness to pay premium, Thus, to introduce the weather-based index insurance and offer the advantages and shortcomings of current insurance system and weather-based index insurance, it is suggested that agricultural insurance fund provides full information for gardeners to improve their consciousness level and provide a public knowledge before this proposed plan is implemented.

Nowadays, the use of agricultural machines and implements is necessary for development. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the appropriate level of mechanization in different activities of agriculture in order to achieve production, employment, income distribution and environment goals. On the other hand, one of the main concerns in the agricultural sector is the issue of employment in this sector and its degree of influence on changing economic factors, has a special place. The purpose of this study is to investigate the interaction of mechanization and employment in agricultural sector of Khorasan Razavi province. For this purpose, the model of the system of simultaneous equations of the panel data is used for 19 cities of Khorasan Razavi province during the years of 2012-16. The results of the research show that employment and mechanization have mutual, negative and significant effects on each other, although the mechanization has far more influence on employment. Also, production, mechanized service units and gross income have a positive and significant effect on agricultural mechanization. On the other hand, the cost of inputs (including seeds, pesticides and chemical and animal fertilizers) and the wages have a negative and significant effect on employment and crop area has a positive and significant effect on it. It is recommended to improve the mechanization situation by establishing and developing agricultural machinery services companies. Also we can increase the employment by employing specialist labor in these companies. Moreover, with supportive payments to reduce production costs and increase gross income, farmers can be persuaded to stay in the countryside, which will increase agricultural employment.

The present study was conducted to evaluate the efficiency of saffron farms in Gonabad county and provide solutions for improving the using method of production factors. In order to achieve the research objectives, a sample of 110 saffron farms was studied in 2017.Considering variable return to scale, the average of technical, allocative and economic efficiency were 0.922, 0.593 and 0.556 respectively, indicating that the saffron farms, despite having high technical efficiency, do not have a decent allocative efficiency and they have not succeeded in achieving the cost minimizing input quantities. Subsequently, by assessing the cost minimizing input quantities, it was found that if saffron growers managed resources properly, they would be able to achieve the current amount of yields despite a considerable reduction in the amounts of four inputs of bulks, manure, chemical fertilizer and water, and only a slight increase in the input of labor. In this way, the operating cost per kilogram of saffron flower would reduce by about 44% on average. Considering there is evidence that the saffron growers of the study area have a tendency to use high-input cultivation systems, it is suggested that appropriate policies be developed to improve the knowledge of farmers and change their attitudes towards cultivation of saffron, so that they will be aware of the adverse effects of these systems.